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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Guzman Y Gomez, APM Human Services, Westgold Resources, Regis Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date
  • Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?


Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
  • Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
  • Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

By Arun George

  • The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. 
  • The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
  • While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.

APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 31st May, employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
  • That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed. A scrip option was afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option, if the Scheme is implemented. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th September. Expected implementation on the 10 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
  • Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.

Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?

By Money of Mine

  • Regis’s McFilamy’s gold project faced setback due to cultural significance of land
  • Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s declaration halted project activities
  • Project had already been approved under state and federal legislation, causing surprise and confusion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Sk Hynix

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS).

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Daily Brief Credit: West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Yankuang Energy Group


West China Cement – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

West China Cement (WCC) has released softer than expected H1/24 numbers. The company’s revenue and profitability in Mainland China continued to decline amid the real estate slump, while its performance in Africa was mixed. ​FCF remained negative and leverage continued to deteriorate. That said, liquidity appears manageable, as we expect WCC to refinance its short-term loans. The main debt maturity wall is in July 2026, when the USD 600 mn notes will come due.

In our view, the key risk is uncertainty over the extent of WCC’s overseas expansion. The company stated that it has no plans for capacity expansion in FY 2024, other than the ongoing developments in Ethiopia and Uzbekistan. However, this contradicts media reports on WCC’s investments in Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Hence, we are unsure about the level of the company’s planned overseas capex. Going forward, cement demand in Mainland China is likely to remain weak, due to the slowdown in infrastructure investment (with lower growth) and continued decline in real estate investment.


Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?
  • Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Snapped
  • Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido
  • How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)


A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

By Jacob Cheng

  • Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday
  • In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE
  • We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks

Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak Snapped

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks declined on Tuesday, snapping an eight-day winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
  • Hitachi acquired U.S.-based Castle Hill Technologies to expand its digital transformation (DX) support in production, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector
  • Oasis Management, an activist investment fund, disclosed a 3.96% stake in Mercari, making it the company’s sixth-largest shareholder.

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

By Andrew Jackson

  • TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
  • Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
  • Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.

How Many Chinese Growth Equity Names Are Growing at Double Digits?

By Ying Pan

  • With consumption in the doldrums, one would expect none growing at double digits. This is actually not the case; 
  • Further, how many Chinese Growth Equity names are accelerating in growth in the second half? Quite a lot;
  • We reiterate our view that Chinese Internet names are took-all winners with strong pricing power, which are showing when they need to. The weak market sentiment is self-fulfilling.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: <Black Myth: WuKong> Tops Steam’s Most Played Games Now with Over 1.2 million Concurrent Players (+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Rock Kingdom: World> Begins Beta Testing Today: iOS Only, Android/PC Versions Not Yet Available (+)
  • 700 HK: <Honor of Kings> Matchmaking Algorithm to Be Overhauled (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY US: The drink “Tengyun American” coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and “Black Myth: Wukong” game was sold out in its first day (/)
  • 1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)
  • Consumer Industry update:China’s Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 3.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.4%).
  • Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.2% of the index) was up 2.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.1% of index) was up 2.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: ZEV, ORGN, GIGA, GTEC, PSIX, GEVO, GCEI, COMM, ASPN, FF

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
  • We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
  • Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications
  • Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line
  • Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility
  • Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September
  • APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date
  • FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October
  • Galderma (GALD): Successful Injection in Swiss & Global Indices


Korea FSS Releases Final Guidelines for Short Selling Compliance: Trading Implications

By Sanghyun Park

  • This final guideline formalizes earlier drafts by the FSS. Though not strictly mandatory, its detailed requirements mean it functions as a de facto rule that must be followed closely.
  • The new, stringent requirements are likely to eliminate common stock borrowing practices in Korea, making timely transactions difficult.
  • New trading patterns and market flows may emerge when short selling resumes in April, with increased importance of borrow balance data and potential rise in counter-flow trading.

Couche-Tard Targets Seven & I: Seven & I’s Pride on the Line

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • It was reported yesterday that Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) has put forward a bold proposal to acquire Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
  • The offer price remains undisclosed, but the market may be anticipating a significant premium based on the share price movement following the news.
  • However, we believe the offer price could fall short of market expectations, and it is likely that Seven & i will reject the proposal.

Trading Considerations for Won Appreciation & Korean ADR Premium Volatility

By Sanghyun Park

  • Increased exchange rate volatility affects the ADR premium, but past patterns show that exchange rate and ADR premium directions may not always align, requiring consideration of specific contextual factors.
  • If the won appreciates below the 1,300s range, overseas institutions may shift to asymmetric selling of underlying shares for foreign exchange profit, as shown by rising ADR premiums.
  • We should watch for peak conditions to capture significant ADR premiums. Trading options include borrowing underlying shares for ADR conversion, even under the current short-selling ban.

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

By Arun George

  • Murakami’s entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in Iriso Electronics (6908 JP). The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.
  • Murakami’s average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.
  • Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU): Free Float to Determine Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) listed on 20 June and is eligible for inclusion in the S&P/ASX family of indices at the September rebalance.
  • Whether the stock is included in indices depends on the index providers estimate of free float. We expect index providers to assign floats of between 25-35% for the stock.
  • Inclusion in one global index could come in November and another in December. Inclusion in the S&P/ASX indices will depend on whether float is higher than 30% or lower.

APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

By Arun George

  • The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. 
  • The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
  • While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.

APM Human Services (APM AU): 18th Sept Vote On Madison Dearborn’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 31st May, employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
  • That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed. A scrip option was afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option, if the Scheme is implemented. 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th September. Expected implementation on the 10 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24: Trade Delivers Strong Return Again; 3 Days Remaining for Base Date

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We continue to expect one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200.
  • Separately, there could be 14 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in October

By Brian Freitas


Galderma (GALD): Successful Injection in Swiss & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Galderma (GALD SW) is one of the largest Global and Swiss Index additions at the August and September 2024 reviews following its recent IPO valued at ~$17bn.
  • The company is forecasted to get added in the second Global Index at the September 2024 review. Estimated demand is ~$162m and ~5.0 ADV.
  • The IPO lock-up expiry is forecasted to generate an additional demand of ~$42m and ~1.3 ADV at the December 2024 review. 

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Daily Brief ECM: COLOWIDE (7616) – UGLY Register On Expensive Co Needs a Capital Construct Upgrade and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • COLOWIDE (7616) – UGLY Register On Expensive Co Needs a Capital Construct Upgrade, Won’t Get It Here
  • Colowide Placement – Needs a Very Large Correction
  • I-Scream Media IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Hyosung Siblings’ Cross-Transfers Are Done: The 10%+ Hyosung Corp Stake Block Deal Remains
  • CJ Darcl Logistics Pre-IPO – Diversifying and Integrating Operations for a Larger Pie
  • Lumir IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Hero Fincorp Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still Has Issues to Contend With
  • Pre-IPO Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment – Profitability and Growth Sustainability Are Worrying


COLOWIDE (7616) – UGLY Register On Expensive Co Needs a Capital Construct Upgrade, Won’t Get It Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) is an industrial fastish-food operator in Japan. They sell several dozen kinds of cuisine under several dozen brands, owned and franchised in Japan and overseas.
  • The company “philosophy” is “Everything we do is for our customers and employees.” The stock is up 30% in 10yrs. It pays no dividend, but it pays a big yutairimawari.
  • This means Real World Float is 100% owned by retail who want restaurant coupons. This offering will be bought by index, short covers, and another 20-30k coupon holders.

Colowide Placement – Needs a Very Large Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) aims to raise around US$230m in order to fund its prospective M&A transactions over the next few years
  • While the company has undertaken a number of M&A transactions in the past, it hasn’t clearly stated its intended targets for this round.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

I-Scream Media IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • I-Scream Media reported its IPO book building results. The IPO price has been determined at 32,000 won, which is at the low end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 561 institutional investors participated in the IPO survey. The final demand ratio was 31.3 to 1.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests an implied price per share of 41,450 won, which represent a 29.5% upside from the IPO price.

Hyosung Siblings’ Cross-Transfers Are Done: The 10%+ Hyosung Corp Stake Block Deal Remains

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Hyosung siblings swapped ₩60B in shares over August 13-14, raising the elder brother’s Hyosung Corp stake to 40.9% and lowering HS Hyosung below 3%.
  • The younger brother must sell additionally at least 11.2% of his 14.2% Hyosung Corp stake. The elder brother may buy, but his cash position and 40% stake limit his need.
  • This block deal will be the first to apply the new pre-disclosure rule. So, we should use it to test how the rule affects price movements for better entry timing.

CJ Darcl Logistics Pre-IPO – Diversifying and Integrating Operations for a Larger Pie

By Akshat Shah

  • CJ Darcl Logistics Limited (1506129D IN) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • CJ Darcl Logistics (CJDL) is a diversified logistics company in India, with market leadership in full truck load (FTL) vertical in terms of revenue for FY23, according to CRISIL.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Lumir IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Base case valuation of Lumir is target price of 18,542 won per share. Given the low upside relative to IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO. 
  • Our net profit estimates in 2025 and 2026 are 38% and 63.3% lower than the company’s estimates.
  • Lumir provides key technologies for satellite systems, including small synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite systems and payloads.

Hero Fincorp Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still Has Issues to Contend With

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hero FinCorp (HF) is looking to raise around US$438m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • HF is a non-deposit taking NBFC. It offers a suite of financial products catering primarily to the retail segment and the MSME customer segment in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Pre-IPO Tong Ren Tang Healthcare Investment – Profitability and Growth Sustainability Are Worrying

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Tong Ren Tang’s performance growth is mainly driven by M&As. Its organic growth and operation management capability are not strong, leading to the concerns on the sustainability of future growth.
  • Profit margin is disappointing.If Tong Ren Tang fails to balance the interests of different parties and control costs/expenses,low profit margins will be the norm despite the growth of revenue scale.
  • From the perspectives of revenue scale, profitability, operational efficiency, business model, there’s still a gap between Tong Ren Tang and Gushengtang. Tong Ren Tang’s valuation should be lower than Gushengtang.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Mercari (4385) | Activist to Add Urgency and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Mercari (4385) | Activist to Add Urgency
  • Narrative and Numbers | Household Durables | FY24
  • KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q24, Significant Margin Improvement and 100% Stock Upside
  • Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?
  • Beer in China: 1H2024 Low Point—What Lies Ahead?
  • Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Q1FY25 PAT Jumps 31%; Increasing Focus on US To Augur Well
  • Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Aug-2024): SDC closes Slovakia branch.
  • Crypto’s Apathetic Recovery
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK): Sluggish Sales But Deep Value And Rolex Resilience


Mercari (4385) | Activist to Add Urgency

By Mark Chadwick

  • Q4 results were a mixed bag with GMV growth slowing to just 6%. However, costs came in better than expected, boosting margins
  • Management surprise the market with bullish FY6/25 guidance. Expects GMV growth to accelerate to +10% and sees OP at a healthy 22-25 billion yen
  • Activist investor Oasis has taken a stake in the company. There is an obvious restructuring angle in addition to significant upside from fintech expansion 

Narrative and Numbers | Household Durables | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar


KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q24, Significant Margin Improvement and 100% Stock Upside

By Ming Lu

  • The gross margin improved 5 pp (percentage points) YoY and the operating margin improved 7 pp YoY in 2Q24.
  • In 2Q24, total revenue grew by 12% YoY, with the main business up by 22% YoY.
  • Three cross-sectional comparisons reach similar stock upsides about 100%. Buy.

Is Australia Really a Top Mining Jurisdiction?

By Money of Mine

  • Regis’s McFilamy’s gold project faced setback due to cultural significance of land
  • Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s declaration halted project activities
  • Project had already been approved under state and federal legislation, causing surprise and confusion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Beer in China: 1H2024 Low Point—What Lies Ahead?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Stock valuations for China’s top beer players are near historical lows, but is a recovery on the horizon? Will it ever return to the heady valuations of 2019-2020?
  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) have reported 1H2024 results showing a decline in sales volumes, attributed to several short term factors.
  • We highlight long-term factors, including an aging population and shifting consumer habits, that could limit sustained growth in China’s alcoholic beverage market.

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Q1FY25 PAT Jumps 31%; Increasing Focus on US To Augur Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported stellar performance in Q1FY25, with all key parameters improved sequentially and YoY. The company achieved highest ever operating profit and margin during the quarter.
  • Sustained growth momentum across all the businesses along with enhanced profitability drove Q1FY25 performance. Execution success of differentiated pipeline in the U.S. and outperformance of India business were particularly noteworthy.
  • Despite delivering 21% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY25, Zydus reiterated FY25 revenue growth guidance of high teens. The company expects EBITDA margin of 28.5–29.0% for FY25.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Seems like a Cost Issue

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is still suffering from cost pressure, with adjusted net profit increased by 10.9% in 2Q24, despite a 48.1% revenue growth.
  • Both GMV and MPU growth rates have slowed in 2Q24 when compared with 1Q24, and revenue may also decelerate in 2H24 given the higher base for comparison.
  • The market will need some time to see if the moderating earnings trend will sustain, negatively affecting investor interests. Potential earnings downgrade is also a challenge.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Aug-2024): SDC closes Slovakia branch.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • SDC closes Slovakia branch due to declining competitiveness in European market, experiencing challenges in the region.
  • SSFC remains optimistic about growth in China’s auto market despite market slowdown, seeing potential for expansion.
  • Global semiconductor industry strengthens in 2Q24, as per SEMI report, with Taiwanese IPC maker showcasing at Automation Expo 2024 in India.

Crypto’s Apathetic Recovery

By Delphi Digital

  • Market Volatility Signals Prolonged Consolidation: Recent market chaos suggests a period of consolidation, not immediate recovery—critical insight for strategizing in crypto markets.
  • Global Liquidity Concerns Dominate Market Trends: The BoJ’s struggle with interest rates highlights how global liquidity influences both traditional and crypto markets, driving current trends.
  • Spotting Market Anomalies is Crucial: Identifying anomalies in trading behavior can uncover opportunities or warn of potential risks, vital for informed decision-making in volatile times.

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Sluggish Sales But Deep Value And Rolex Resilience

By Sameer Taneja

  • Hong Kong’s watch and jewelry sales were weak in Q2 CY24 (-24% YoY) as dampened sentiment continues to plague overall retail sales across regional sectors. 
  • However, Oriental Watch (398 HK), with its Rolex and Patek Phillipe portfolio, is expected to be more resilient than the rest of the watch industry. 
  • The company is still a very good dividend play, trading at 7.6x FY25 PE, with 60% of the market cap in cash and a 13.5% dividend yield. 

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Boring and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Boring


Crypto Crisp: Boring

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The crypto market has been pretty boring lately, with low volatility and no significant movements in either direction for weeks.
  • The past week’s low volatility, combined with the ongoing drop in exchange balances for Bitcoin and Ether, strengthens our view that we are in an accumulation phase.
  • This suggests the market is gearing up for a move upward rather than downward.

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Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties
  • Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle
  • Non-Consensus View: China to De-Centralise
  • China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market
  • China Economics: Not Much Progress in Cyclical Recovery
  • Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down
  • CX Daily: Chinese Gamble With Their Lives in the Philippines Amid Waves of Kidnappings
  • EA Inflation is Awkwardly Strong
  • Swedish Riksbank Delivers 25bps Cut and More to Come
  • FSS Provides Guidelines for Internal Controls and Stock Balance Management System for Short Selling


Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Shifara Samsudeen

  • The Initial Public Offering (IPO) market in the ASEAN region has experienced significant transformations over the past five years.
  • 2023 was a year of uncertainty due to global supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to exercise caution.
  • As the region continues to navigate economic uncertainties and geopolitical challenges, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth driven by strategic
    reforms and sector-specific opportunities.

Join us as Shifara Samsudeen shares her expert analysis on these developments, and what they mean for the future of the ASEAN region’s IPO markets.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 11 September 2024, 17:30 SGT/HKT.

Shifara Samsudeen has over fifteen years of experience in investment research, with exposure to the tech and telecom sectors. She has extensive knowledge in performing industry deep dives and KPI identification along with advanced client services. Prior to joining LightStream Research, Shifara was an Assistant Director at Acuity Knowledge Partners (previously Moody’s Analytics Knowledge Services). Shifara is an Associate Member of CIMA – UK.


Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .
  • Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.
  • This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.

Non-Consensus View: China to De-Centralise

By Alex Ng

  • We believe, contrary to the increasing view of centralising trend, China is possible to undergo a series of decentralisation, revitalising the competition spirit of provinces and counties.
  • It is questionable whether President Xi is capable of fine-governing each local provinces, no matter how talented he is, as China is a big country.
  • Improvement in technology is enabling the autocratic government to micro-manage the country, but if there is only one top guy to decide on everything, such system is bound to collapse.

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

By Rikki Malik

  • The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental
  • Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term
  • The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government

China Economics: Not Much Progress in Cyclical Recovery

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Economic readings show that China’s economy is still mired in a malaise. Households remain defensive by doubling down on savings, which feeds into muted investment and hiring by firms. 
  • With a property market rebound not forthcoming, the negative wealth effects are keeping economic agents downbeat. 
  • The failure of its strategy of repeated small stimulus doses has not spurred Beijing into more decisive action. Without that, the economy could fall into a deflationary trap.

Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down

By Suhas Reddy

  • US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 586 for the week ending 16/Aug, indicating a decline for the second time in three weeks.
  • US oil rig count fell by two to 483, after rising by three the previous week. Gas rigs increased by one to 98, after declining for three straight weeks.
  • For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude oil production fell back to 13.3m bpd, after hitting its record high of 13.4m bpd the week prior.  

CX Daily: Chinese Gamble With Their Lives in the Philippines Amid Waves of Kidnappings

By Caixin Global

  • Kidnappings / Cover Story: Chinese gamble with their lives in the Philippines amid waves of kidnappings 
  • Marriage /: China looks to make tying the knot easier as marriage rate continues decade-long decline

  • Bonds /: Investors are warming to panda bonds, Deutsche Bank executive says


EA Inflation is Awkwardly Strong

By Phil Rush

  • The final EA inflation print broadly confirmed the flash release’s surprise rise to 2.58% in July, with services only slowing to 4%. Median rates are pushing above 2% again.
  • Annual underlying inflation measures are still slowing, but the extent is being revised higher, and so are headline consensus forecast profiles.
  • Renewed slowing over the next two months, while medium-term projections are stable, should allow the ECB to cut in September. Resilience should urge cautious restraint.

Swedish Riksbank Delivers 25bps Cut and More to Come

By Alex Ng

  • Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after Aug 20 25bps cut to 3.50%.  
  • We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meetings and a 25bps cut is possible in the November if inflation remains under control and real sector further disappoints
  • The statement indicated that the Riksbank would be looking to cut a further two to three times in 2024, which is more dovish than expected.

FSS Provides Guidelines for Internal Controls and Stock Balance Management System for Short Selling

By Douglas Kim

  • On 20 August, the FSS provided guidelines for the internal control and stock balance management system for institutional investors that plan to engage in short selling in Korea.
  • The time frame to complete the internal control and stock balance management system is to complete them by end of this year.
  • The time frame to complete the internal control and stock balance management system is end of this year.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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