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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Fosun Tourism, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB
  • Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

By Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

By Arun George

Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Declining components from MSCI indexes will lead to less inflows from active as well as passive funds, and less transmission from the sell-side to global investors.
  • Based on the assumption that the world’s top companies have grown in response to changes in the environment, Japanese companies may be relatively slow in making management decisions for growth.
  • As benchmark adopters reduce their investments in Japanese equities, investors adopting investment strategies that are less concerned with benchmarks will have a greater presence than ever before.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ROHM Co Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Apple , CompoSecure, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
  • Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
  • It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
  • Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
  • SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

By Michael Allen

  • More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
  • The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
  • Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
  • Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
  • Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
  • On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
  • Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

  • I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
  • The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
  • 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
  • Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
  • SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Financials: Guotai Junan Securities , Areit (AyalaLand REIT), SLB Development, IREDA, Bank Central Asia, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher
  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas

SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / India Budget Event Dominates Local Options Markets.

By Sankalp Singh

  • Monthly Options contracts experiencing large IV markups on account of India Budget event. IVs have traded up to 18.0%. YTD vol increase marks a significant shift in the Vol-regime.
  • Gamma offered & Vega bid – Weekly Options contracts relatively out-of-favour while Monthly & Quarterly contracts are being marked up.
  • Skew & Smile characteristics have compressed slightly. Vol term-structure continues to trade with “inverted-V” shape. 

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 10,500 won. The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 910 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of Dongbang Medical is target price of 13,609 won per share which is 30% higher than the IPO price of 10,500 won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer who have received prior endocrine-based therapy and chemotherapy.
  • Sumitomo Pharma partnered with J&J for co-promotion of the long-acting antipsychotic medication XEPLION. Shanghai Fosun Pharma’s proposed buyout of Shanghai Henlius Biotech for HK$5.4B (~$693M) failed to pass shareholders’ vote.
  • SK Bioscience signed a co-promotion and distribution agreement with Sanofi for RSV and hepatitis A vaccines. Hugel received approval for its botulinum toxin for five indications from the UAE.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.26) – Key Takeaways from the Failure of Henlius Privatization, TCM M&As
  • CACI International Inc.: Counter-UAS Systems & International Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Netflix Soars to New Heights: Breaking Down Their Massive Growth and the Challenges Ahead!
  • Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! – Major Drivers
  • Steel Dynamics: Expanding Aluminum Operations To Act As A Formidable Player In The Aluminum Market! – Major Drivers
  • Textron Inc.: An Insight Into Its Sustainable Aviation
  • United Airlines: Leveraging Technological Innovation To Change The Game! – Major Drivers
  • Amphenol Corporation: Can Its Continued Expansion in Automotive Help Alter The Playing Field? – Major Drivers
  • D.R. Horton: Adaptation to Market Trends Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory

By Nitin Mangal

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN), one of the largest Indian jewellery player, has been under the limelight for various allegations and misconducts, including possibility of inventory overstatement.
  • In this insight, we try to look at the inventory from the forensic lens and uncover the disparity in accounting.
  • We also note that operating cash flows are boosted by movement in metal loans while company also has several RPT with promoters, especially on the purchases side. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.26) – Key Takeaways from the Failure of Henlius Privatization, TCM M&As

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There have been quite a few M&As in the field of TCM, with a clear trend of SOEs taking over TCM enterprises due to strategically significant and advantageous integration.
  • Whether a drug can be approved does not depend on whether it has entered Phase II/III trials. The areas with clearly unmet medical needs often indicate good investment opportunities.
  • The privatization of Henlius failed. Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was based on a deliberate decision. We are optimistic about the outlook of Henlius due to its strong fundamentals and internationalization. 

CACI International Inc.: Counter-UAS Systems & International Expansion Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CACI International reported strong results for the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025, highlighted by a robust revenue growth of 14.5% and an EBITDA margin of 11.1%.
  • The company secured $1.2 billion in new business awards during the quarter and reported a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.7x, indicating a solid demand for its services.
  • This strong performance has prompted CACI to raise its full-year guidance, projecting revenue between $8.45 billion and $8.65 billion, and adjusted earnings per share ranging from $23.87 to $24.76.

Netflix Soars to New Heights: Breaking Down Their Massive Growth and the Challenges Ahead!

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix Inc. continues to demonstrate strong performance in the streaming industry, underpinned by significant subscriber growth and robust financial metrics.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, Netflix reported an unprecedented net addition of 19 million subscribers, culminating in a total of 41 million new members for the year.
  • This surge not only surpassed analyst expectations but also propelled the stock to a record high of $999, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alcoa Corporation’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company’s performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.
  • In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.
  • The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.

Steel Dynamics: Expanding Aluminum Operations To Act As A Formidable Player In The Aluminum Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) navigated a challenging market environment in 2024, achieving solid financial results while continuing strategic growth initiatives.
  • The company reported second-highest annual steel shipments of 12.7 million tons, and cash from operations stood at $1.8 billion, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion.
  • Net income for 2024 was recorded at $1.5 billion, reflecting a diluted share value of $9.84, while the fourth quarter net income was $207 million, or $1.36 per diluted share.

Textron Inc.: An Insight Into Its Sustainable Aviation

By Baptista Research

  • Textron’s latest financial performance highlighted a mix of achievements and challenges across its diverse business segments.
  • The company’s Q4 2024 revenues were $3.6 billion, a decrease from $3.9 billion in the previous year.
  • Segment profit also saw a decline to $283 million, down $101 million from the prior year’s same quarter.

United Airlines: Leveraging Technological Innovation To Change The Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines Holdings’ latest earnings call for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 highlights a robust performance that illustrates both advancements and challenges within the company.
  • Reflecting on the year, United Airlines demonstrated strong financial outcomes primarily driven by strategic operational improvements and a favorable market environment.
  • In 2024, United Airlines achieved a record earnings per share of $10.61, surpassing the midpoint of their initial guidance.

Amphenol Corporation: Can Its Continued Expansion in Automotive Help Alter The Playing Field? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amphenol Corporation concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 on a strong note, reflecting robust financial performance across most of its business segments.
  • The company’s quarterly sales reached a record $4.318 billion, a 30% increase in both U.S. dollars and local currencies and a 20% organic growth compared to the same period in 2023.
  • This growth was consistent across all served markets, with the company achieving significant milestones in both quarterly and full-year metrics.

D.R. Horton: Adaptation to Market Trends Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • D.R. Horton, Inc., “America’s Builder,” reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 with results that underscore both strengths and challenges facing the company.
  • Earnings came in at $2.61 per diluted share, a decrease from the $2.82 reported in the prior year.
  • Despite the dip, the company generated consolidated revenues of $7.6 billion with consolidated pretax income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a pretax profit margin of 14.6%.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again
  • Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
  • The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
  • No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025):  AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
  • The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
  • INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.  

Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
  • The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.  

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

By David Blennerhassett

  • JIC announced a “mid-February” start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)‘s Tender Offer. That’s a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
  • What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.
  • Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)‘s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

By David Blennerhassett

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Dongbang Medical and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Dongbang Medical IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Dongbang Medical reported excellent IPO book building results. The IPO price has been finalized at 10,500 won. The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 910 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of Dongbang Medical is target price of 13,609 won per share which is 30% higher than the IPO price of 10,500 won.
  • Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Japfa Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
  • While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
  • The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.  

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief India: Kalyan Jewellers and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory

Kalyan Jewellers- Grey Areas Surrounding Inventory

By Nitin Mangal

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN), one of the largest Indian jewellery player, has been under the limelight for various allegations and misconducts, including possibility of inventory overstatement.
  • In this insight, we try to look at the inventory from the forensic lens and uncover the disparity in accounting.
  • We also note that operating cash flows are boosted by movement in metal loans while company also has several RPT with promoters, especially on the purchases side. 

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