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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Google’s Quantum Lea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Google’s Quantum Lea
  • Delphi’s Gaming Year Ahead 2025
  • # 72 India Insight: VI Preferential Issue, JSW Production Growth, Metropolis Acquisition of Core
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:UBER US/WRD US/BIDU US/9660HK/XPEV US/NTES/BABA/PDD/3690HK/TCOM /700HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Google’s Quantum Lea

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also fell around 0.3%. Alphabet shares surged over 5% following breakthroughs in quantum computing
  • Nippon Life Insurance announced plans to acquire Resolution Life Group Holdings for $8.2 billion
  • Oasis Management have increased their stake in Kao to over 5%. Previously they have engaged with the company: “A Better Kao”

Delphi’s Gaming Year Ahead 2025

By The Delphi Podcast

  • The gaming industry is evolving with a focus on AI integration and innovative game loops.
  • Mobile gaming is expected to lead the way in terms of success and adoption in the coming years.
  • Ecosystems like Ronin and exchanges are playing a significant role in shaping the gaming landscape, with a focus on UGC and innovative token distribution mechanics.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


# 72 India Insight: VI Preferential Issue, JSW Production Growth, Metropolis Acquisition of Core

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JSW Steel Reports 5% YoY Production Growth Amid Financial Pressure.
  • Vodafone Idea to Raise INR 1,980 Crore via Preferential Shares.
  • Metropolis Healthcare to Acquire Core Diagnostics for INR 247 Crore

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:UBER US/WRD US/BIDU US/9660HK/XPEV US/NTES/BABA/PDD/3690HK/TCOM /700HK

By Ying Pan

  • UBER US/WRD US/BIDU US/9660 HK/XPEV US:Uber cooperates with WeRide in the United Arab Emirates. It previously cooperated with BYD for 100,000 EV’s. Is it using China to counter Tesla?.(/////////)
  • NTES US: NetEase’s New Game <Marvel Rival> Reaches Over 10 Million Players Within 72 Hours of Launch (+)
  • BABA US/PDD US: Taobao launches new treasure hunting mechanism for upcoming 12/12 sale to attract a younger cohort (+/-)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US/ACMR US/ZTO US/1810 HK/AAPL US

By Eric Wen

  • 981 HK/1347 HK/NXPI US/TXN US/ADI US/ON US: China industry associations send warning over sourcing US chips (+/+/-/-/-/-)
  • ACMR US: Limited impact from the addition of its subsidiaries to entity-list (/)
  • ZTO US: Parcel volume delivery grew 32% yoy in the prior week (+)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 29-Dec 5, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources

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Daily Brief ECM: LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis
  • EAAA India Alternatives Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • SAI Life Sciences IPO- Growing and Profitable Business; Aggressive Pricing Limits Upside Potential


LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095 won per share.
  • Therefore, our base case valuation target price of 81,095 won is 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • We estimate LG CNS to generate sales of 5.99 trillion won (up 6.8% YoY) and net profit of 356.1 billion won (up 7.1% YoY) in 2024.

EAAA India Alternatives Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) (EAAA) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Axis Capital, Jefferies, Motilal Oswal, Nuvama.
  • EAAA is a fund management house with a diversified, multi-strategy platform in large, under-tapped, and fast-growing alternative asset classes, focusing on providing income and yield solutions to its clients.
  • As per CARE report, EAAA is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, in terms of assets under management (AUM) of INR572.62bn (US$6.7bn) as of Sept 24.

SAI Life Sciences IPO- Growing and Profitable Business; Aggressive Pricing Limits Upside Potential

By Tina Banerjee

  • The IPO of SAI Life Sciences, a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization,  is scheduled to open on December 11. The IPO consists of fresh issue as well as OFS.
  • Out of the fresh issue of proceeds, the company intends to use INR7.2B for repayment/prepayment of outstanding borrowings. As of September 30, 2024, total outstanding borrowing stands at INR7.6B.
  • We have high conviction on the growth prospect of SAI Life Sciences. Considering FY25 annualized post-IPO EPS of INR2.69, the company seeks a P/E valuation of 186.9–203.8x. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders
  • Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating:  AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC
  • Geely (175 HK): Turning from PHEV to BEV
  • Episode 96: The State of Intel Post Pat G, Product Roadmap focus, Foundries Strategic Value
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Dec-2024): TSMC Nov revenue decline less than expected, annual rev up by 30%.
  • The Beat Ideas: Popular Vehicles & Services, Cheapest Among Dealership Business
  • The Beat Ideas: Innova Captab Ltd, Jammu Capex Kicker, Margin Expansion
  • Blueprint Medicines: Expanding International Market Footprint For A Potentially Unmatched Revenue Impact? – Major Drivers
  • Eneabba: A $2b Disaster in Waiting?
  • Bio-Rad Laboratories: Digital PCR Platform Expansion &3 Critical Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts


Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It’s even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.
  • From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (>10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.
  • Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.

Semiconductor Sales Reaccelerating, AI Accelerators Accelerating:  AMD, AVGO, NVDA, SK Hynix, TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The Semiconductor industry associations report re-accelerating Semi sales, and increase 2024-25 forecasts. This is due to higher AI / Accelerators, HBM Memory but the rest of the market remains sluggish
  • TSMC remains on its high growth plateau at 34% YoY, driven by AI and 3nm. UMC remains on a sluggish recovery at 7% YoY.
  • AMD, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC: stocks are not expensive on PE relative to earnings growth. Non-Consensus: we think AMD and SK Hynix are worth a serious look.

Geely (175 HK): Turning from PHEV to BEV

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s sales volume grew by 27% YoY in November 2024.
  • BEV delivery growth rate accelerated to 173% YoY in November from 26% YoY in July.
  • Geely’s forward financial ratios are lower than its major competitors.

Episode 96: The State of Intel Post Pat G, Product Roadmap focus, Foundries Strategic Value

By The Circuit

  • The Circuit podcast discusses the uncertainty surrounding Intel’s future leadership and strategic direction
  • Ben and Jay analyze the board’s role in Intel’s challenges and debate the company’s path forward
  • The podcast ends on a hopeful note, with Jay expressing optimism about Intel’s 14A technology and the potential for success in the future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Dec-2024): TSMC Nov revenue decline less than expected, annual rev up by 30%.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TSMC’s November revenue decline was better than expected, poised for nearly 30% annual revenue growth.
  • SK Hynix restructures CIS organization to replicate HBM success model, aiming for improved performance.
  • TSMC founder sheds light on reasons behind Samsung and Intel’s setbacks, pointing out core issues. YMTC refutes backdoor listing rumors, facing industry scrutiny; while Samsung explores using discrete LPDDR for AI-driven iPhones and China investigates Nvidia amid US-China chip tensions.

The Beat Ideas: Popular Vehicles & Services, Cheapest Among Dealership Business

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Popular Vehicles and Services (PVSL IN) are available at a 50% discount since IPO and available at 25%
  • PVSL plans to enter two new states by June 2025 and open multiple new facilities, including a NEXA Studio and service centers in Maharashtra and Kerala.
  • PVSL’s focus on geographic expansion, high-margin segments, and inventory normalization enhances its growth potential, making it a compelling value play with room for significant re-rating in the near future.

The Beat Ideas: Innova Captab Ltd, Jammu Capex Kicker, Margin Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Innova Captab (1605221D IN)’s New Jammu facility to be commercialized by Q3 FY25, expanding capacity and product range.
  • Strong order pipeline, diversified segments (CDMO, branded generics), and high-margin segments to drive profitability.
  • Aiming for 25-30% revenue CAGR and 4-5% margin expansion in upcoming years.

Blueprint Medicines: Expanding International Market Footprint For A Potentially Unmatched Revenue Impact? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Blueprint Medicines Corporation, during its third quarter of 2024 financial results presentation, highlighted both promising developments and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported robust revenue growth, primarily driven by the performance of AYVAKIT, which achieved $128.2 million in net product revenue, marking a 137% year-over-year increase.
  • This strong performance led the company to raise its annual revenue guidance to between $475 million and $480 million, positioning AYVAKIT on track for substantial long-term revenue, potentially exceeding $2 billion.

Eneabba: A $2b Disaster in Waiting?

By Money of Mine

  • The funding package between Iluka Resources and the government was finalized, leading to a 10% market decline
  • Iluka Resources planned to build a Rare Earths refinery in Enneba with the assistance of a $1.05 billion non recourse loan from the Australian government
  • Iluka also had plans to process their Wimmera deposit through the refinery, despite challenges with separation and impurities causing delays in development.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Bio-Rad Laboratories: Digital PCR Platform Expansion &3 Critical Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. presented a mixed set of results for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges and some positive developments across its business segments.
  • The company reported net sales of $650 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous year on a reported basis, attributed largely to its Clinical Diagnostics segment.
  • On a currency-neutral basis, sales increased by 3.4% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 6.4% increase in the Clinical Diagnostics group led by strong demand for quality control products, especially in the Asia Pacific region.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine
  • CPMC (906 HK): Why This Is Still A Buy
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback at HK$7.80 (95% Premium)
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2024)
  • Talabat Holding (TALABAT UH): IPO Fast-Entry to Be Delivered with Caution
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Fosun Int’l’s Indirect Takeover
  • EQD | The Nikkei’s Wavering Trend: LONG Investors Should Brace For A Pullback.
  • Vishal Mega Mart IPO: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing
  • StubWorld: Business As Usual As Prosus Sells, & Tencent Buys Back
  • CR Sanjiu (000999CH) To Acquire Tasly (600535CH) Update- The Deal Is Proceeding in an Orderly Manner


Thinking About Topcon (7732) And the New METI-Enabled Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine

By Travis Lundy

  • A Bloomberg article today said Topcon Corp (7732 JP) is weighing takeover bids received from KKR and EQT. ValueAct has been pressuring the company for 18mos (5+% in May23)
  • ValueAct has apparently been pushing the company to divest assets and concentrate on core ops, or go private (and have someone else do it). 
  • This is further evidence of the METI-enabled “Bad Cop-Good Cop Routine” which could expand M&A and governance activity dramatically. 

CPMC (906 HK): Why This Is Still A Buy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 29th August 2024, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced  ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) had secured SAMR approval.  Mofcom and NDRC approvals subsequently followed. 
  • The pre-condition long stop date is the 6th January. SAFE is the outstanding pre-condition. Separately, Zhang Wei’s 22.01% irrevocable expired on the 5th December – with no HKEx announcement.
  • Quite a lot to pack in with 16 business days to the pre-con long stop. Sounding out people involved with the transaction would be ideal.  So that’s what I did. 

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback at HK$7.80 (95% Premium)

By Arun George

  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) disclosed a share buyback of the company through a scheme of arrangement at HK$7.80, a 95.0% premium to the last close price of HK$4.00. 
  • The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders).
  • The timing is arguably opportunistic, as the shares are down 31% YTD. Nevertheless, the high takeover premium and a potential scrip option lower the vote risk.    

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Reently-Listed Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), Rigaku Holdings (268A JP), and Intermestic (262A JP) were added to the TOPIX index at the end of November 2024.
  • Our long-term pre-event candidate Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) has applied for a Section Transfer to the Prime Market which means there could be TOPIX Inclusion in the near future.

Talabat Holding (TALABAT UH): IPO Fast-Entry to Be Delivered with Caution

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Talabat Holding (TALABAT UH) is expected to be listed on 10 December 2024, on the Dubai Financial Market at a valuation of ~$10.3bn.
  • Fast-Entry is forecasted to be announced for the one Global Index at the close of 10 December and traded on 20 December in conjunction with the review.
  • Uncertainty regarding the Fast-Entry arises due to lack of shareholder information in the Institutional Offering which can result in the float market cap being determined as invalid.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Fosun Int’l’s Indirect Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

  • When Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), a leisure-focused integrated tourism group, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, the obvious Offeror, by way of a Scheme, was Fosun International (656 HK)
  • Not quite. We do have a Scheme, but it’s being enacted by way of a buyback. Fosun Int’l still abstains from voting, but will control 100% if the Scheme completes.
  • The Cancellation Price is $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed. I previously speculated a 100% premium was not out of the question.  Clean deal.

EQD | The Nikkei’s Wavering Trend: LONG Investors Should Brace For A Pullback.

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 Index continues its going nowhere trend: there is a pattern however in what it does and it’s quite repetitive as of lately.
  • While we don’t attribute predictive value to chart patterns, we do know that a flat trend sooner or later breaks out.
  • Our models see limited upside for the current range-bound mini rally (2 weeks in the making). Next we will have a pullback, and it could happen already after this week.

Vishal Mega Mart IPO: IPO Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas

  • Vishal Mega Mart (1620871D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling INR 80bn (US$943m) of stock at a valuation of INR 352bn (US$4.15bn).
  • Anchor allocations were completed on 10 December, the IPO opens today, and the stock is expected to start trading on 18 December. Grey market premium is around 25%.
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances should take place in May and June 2025.

StubWorld: Business As Usual As Prosus Sells, & Tencent Buys Back

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the first time in 2024, Prosus NV (PRX NA) lodges a substantial shareholder notice,  as its stake in Tencent (700 HK) dips below 24%. 
  • Preceding my comments on Prosus, Tencent and Naspers (NPN SJ), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

CR Sanjiu (000999CH) To Acquire Tasly (600535CH) Update- The Deal Is Proceeding in an Orderly Manner

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Based on the new announcement released by CR Sanjiu, due diligence, auditing, evaluation, valuation and verification of material assets reorganization are in progress. Approvals by the SASAC/SAMR haven’t been obtained.
  • Sanjiu is now facing performance headwinds due to VBP. So, Sanjiu needs new/stable performance increments to alleviate future performance pressure, and completing the acquisition of Tasly becomes even more urgent.
  • China Resources excels in M&As and has strong internal business integration capabilities.We’re optimistic about the future synergies after the merger. Valuation for Tasly is expected to reach P/E of 30.

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Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals … and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals …
  • What We Foresee for the Four C’s
  • [IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip
  • MacroVoices #457 Justin Huhn: The Fundamentals For Nuclear Keep Getting Better
  • US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs
  • Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend
  • High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore
  • Debunking Fiscal Voodoo


Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals …

By At Any Rate

  • Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussed
  • Bullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commodities
  • Neutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


What We Foresee for the Four C’s

By BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

  • Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada
  • The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security
  • The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
  • Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
  • Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.

MacroVoices #457 Justin Huhn: The Fundamentals For Nuclear Keep Getting Better

By Macro Voices

  • December S&P 500 futures are up 116 basis points, trading at 6900, with potential levels to watch.
  • US Dollar Index is down 11, consolidating 2-year highs.
  • January WTI crude oil contract down 68 basis points, remaining in a primary downtrend.
  • Additional points discussed include tech companies embracing nuclear energy, the uranium market outlook, and commentary on market trends for gold, bonds, and equities. Each market is assessed for potential trends and indicators that may influence future movements.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks
  • For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.
  • The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

By The Commodity Report

  • Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.
  • I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.
  • For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  
  • WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. 
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.

High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer what’s priced in at 100 USD/ton.
  • We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.
  • Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.

Debunking Fiscal Voodoo

By Phil Rush

  • Persistent fiscal deficits have almost become normalised, with politicians hoping that modern monetary theory might resolve their borrowing with private savings and assets.
  • Foreign savings are the more likely release valve on discretionary fiscal easing. Pursuing countercyclically loose policy faces inflationary resource constraints even under MMT.
  • Revaluations of heterogeneous securities mean higher deficits and debt are not neutral. Fiscal deficits encourage tighter monetary policy amid stagflationary pressures.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Bitcoin and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bitcoin, Price / Vol Spirals and MSTR
  • Crypto Crisp: Trump Is Assembling a Crypto Team


Bitcoin, Price / Vol Spirals and MSTR

By Alpha Exchange

  • Discussion of ins and outs of option pricing and market risk
  • Examples of price volume spirals in meltdown and melt up scenarios
  • Exploration of value and instability in market dynamics

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Crisp: Trump Is Assembling a Crypto Team

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Trump is gradually building a team to “make America great again” in the crypto space—a move that certainly cannot come soon enough.
  • The most significant news from the past week includes the following highlights.
  • Trump Names David Sacks as White House AI and Crypto Czar’ at Bloomberg

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Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore, Iluka Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip
  • Eneabba: A $2b Disaster in Waiting?
  • High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore


[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
  • Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
  • Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.

Eneabba: A $2b Disaster in Waiting?

By Money of Mine

  • The funding package between Iluka Resources and the government was finalized, leading to a 10% market decline
  • Iluka Resources planned to build a Rare Earths refinery in Enneba with the assistance of a $1.05 billion non recourse loan from the Australian government
  • Iluka also had plans to process their Wimmera deposit through the refinery, despite challenges with separation and impurities causing delays in development.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer what’s priced in at 100 USD/ton.
  • We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.
  • Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Valuetronics Holdings, Scilex Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Company Spotlight: Valuetronics
  • SCLX: Deal Brings Huge Potential


Company Spotlight: Valuetronics

By Geoff Howie

Company Spotlight: Valuetronics

SCLX: Deal Brings Huge Potential

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
  • The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
  • The company announced a deal with a developer of a Phase 2 drug with a large market potential to be the exclusive developer and have the right to commercialize the treatment targeting obesity and Alzheimer’s disease.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG CNS, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis
  • EQD | Kospi 200 (KOSPI2) – Identifying Option Opportunities Amid Political Turmoil


LG CNS IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied market cap of 7.9 trillion won for LG CNS, representing target price of 81,095 won per share.
  • Therefore, our base case valuation target price of 81,095 won is 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • We estimate LG CNS to generate sales of 5.99 trillion won (up 6.8% YoY) and net profit of 356.1 billion won (up 7.1% YoY) in 2024.

EQD | Kospi 200 (KOSPI2) – Identifying Option Opportunities Amid Political Turmoil

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The impact of South Korea’s political turmoil on the KOSPI 200 and implied volatility has been limited. Implied volatility has risen, and the skew steepened but not to extreme levels.
  • The shape of the skew, in combination with the interplay between index and skew change, open up an opportunity for opportunistic option trades, in particular short otm calls and/or puts.
  • KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) risk is probably skewed to the downside favoring short calls. Choice of strike and expiry is guided by quantitative analysis, option liquidity, and risk-return potential.

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Daily Brief United States: Gold, Intel Corp, Bitcoin, Copper, Blueprint Medicines, Crude Oil, Bio-Rad Laboratories A, Natural Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals …
  • Episode 96: The State of Intel Post Pat G, Product Roadmap focus, Foundries Strategic Value
  • Bitcoin, Price / Vol Spirals and MSTR
  • What We Foresee for the Four C’s
  • Crypto Crisp: Trump Is Assembling a Crypto Team
  • Blueprint Medicines: Expanding International Market Footprint For A Potentially Unmatched Revenue Impact? – Major Drivers
  • US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs
  • Bio-Rad Laboratories: Digital PCR Platform Expansion &3 Critical Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend


Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals …

By At Any Rate

  • Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussed
  • Bullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commodities
  • Neutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026

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Episode 96: The State of Intel Post Pat G, Product Roadmap focus, Foundries Strategic Value

By The Circuit

  • The Circuit podcast discusses the uncertainty surrounding Intel’s future leadership and strategic direction
  • Ben and Jay analyze the board’s role in Intel’s challenges and debate the company’s path forward
  • The podcast ends on a hopeful note, with Jay expressing optimism about Intel’s 14A technology and the potential for success in the future

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Bitcoin, Price / Vol Spirals and MSTR

By Alpha Exchange

  • Discussion of ins and outs of option pricing and market risk
  • Examples of price volume spirals in meltdown and melt up scenarios
  • Exploration of value and instability in market dynamics

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What We Foresee for the Four C’s

By BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

  • Export restrictions have impacted the trade between China and the US, with potential for increased support for mineral imports from Canada
  • The incoming Biden administration may focus on boosting domestic mineral recovery and supply chain security
  • The copper market is facing challenges with potential oversupply, while cobalt prices are set for the worst year in history due to stagnating demand and increasing output.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Crisp: Trump Is Assembling a Crypto Team

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Trump is gradually building a team to “make America great again” in the crypto space—a move that certainly cannot come soon enough.
  • The most significant news from the past week includes the following highlights.
  • Trump Names David Sacks as White House AI and Crypto Czar’ at Bloomberg

Blueprint Medicines: Expanding International Market Footprint For A Potentially Unmatched Revenue Impact? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Blueprint Medicines Corporation, during its third quarter of 2024 financial results presentation, highlighted both promising developments and ongoing challenges.
  • The company reported robust revenue growth, primarily driven by the performance of AYVAKIT, which achieved $128.2 million in net product revenue, marking a 137% year-over-year increase.
  • This strong performance led the company to raise its annual revenue guidance to between $475 million and $480 million, positioning AYVAKIT on track for substantial long-term revenue, potentially exceeding $2 billion.

US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks
  • For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.
  • The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.

Bio-Rad Laboratories: Digital PCR Platform Expansion &3 Critical Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. presented a mixed set of results for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges and some positive developments across its business segments.
  • The company reported net sales of $650 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous year on a reported basis, attributed largely to its Clinical Diagnostics segment.
  • On a currency-neutral basis, sales increased by 3.4% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 6.4% increase in the Clinical Diagnostics group led by strong demand for quality control products, especially in the Asia Pacific region.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  
  • WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/49] Volatile Weather Forecasts Cut Short Henry Hub’s Uptrend

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices dropped 8.5% for the week ending 06/Dec, driven by volatile weather forecasts, which predicted a warmer-than-expected winter.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 from 1.47 (29/Nov) the previous week as put volumes fell by 20.6% WoW, while call volumes increased by 10.2%. 
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.84 from 0.83 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.7%.

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