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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Brightcom Group, KakaoBank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I’Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market
  • Indian Forensic Playbook: Guidelines to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks
  • EM Digital Banks – We Turn Positive on KakaoBank and Inter, Cautious on Nubank and Neutral on PAN


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I’Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

By David Blennerhassett


Indian Forensic Playbook: Guidelines to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indian SMEs are new hot investment avenues selling stories to investors which might end to a case of pump and dump.
  • SEBI in last few months have identified such cases in SMEs and microcaps.
  • We delved into key guidelines on Indian Forensics to Identify and Avoid Storified Stocks

EM Digital Banks – We Turn Positive on KakaoBank and Inter, Cautious on Nubank and Neutral on PAN

By Victor Galliano

  • We turn positive on KakaoBank, for its increasingly secure competitive positioning in Korea, its attractive digital efficiency ratio, its low customer acquisition cost and for its high activity rate
  • We switch our buy rating from PAN to Inter as the latter has improved operationally, it is sound on capital and attractive on valuations
  • Nubank is executing well, but we remain cautious on Nubank shares as we continue to see potential capital constraints as a key risk, along with its stretched valuations

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Daily Brief Industrials: Zen Technologies, Japan Post Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Zen Technologies: Building a Strong Moat in Indian Defence Theme
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L’Occitane


Zen Technologies: Building a Strong Moat in Indian Defence Theme

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) expands product range to drones, anti-drone systems, and medical simulators, enhancing opportunities beyond government contracts.
  • Strong order book of Rs 1,401 crore, significant R&D investment, and government support for indigenous defence manufacturing drive growth.
  • Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) diversified product portfolio and strategic government support position it well for significant growth in the defence and simulation markets.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L’Occitane

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Health Care: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – Cresemba milestone payments continue to roll in


Yichang HEC (1558 HK): Absorption Via Speculative Scrip. Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

  • A “Privatisation via a Merger by Absorption” is nothing new in Hong Kong. But the Offer consideration for Yichang HEC (1558 HK)‘s minorities is in unlisted scrip – that’s new. 
  • The Offeror holds 51.41% in Yichang HEC. Founder Guo Meilan and her son Zhang Yushuai control 62.12% of the Offeror. Yichang HEC shareholders are being offered 0.263614 “Offeror H shares”.
  • These consideration shares are unlisted. An independent valuer backs out an implied scrip value of HK$18.12-HK$20.60/share. This is a super complicated, overwrought deal. With numerous unknowns. I’d vote this down. 

Basilea Pharmaceutica – Cresemba milestone payments continue to roll in

By Edison Investment Research

Basilea Pharmaceutica has announced the triggering of a US$1.25m milestone payment from Pfizer, triggered by sustained strong sales of Cresemba in the Asia-Pacific region and China. This is the second FY24 milestone payment for the region and is incremental to the payment received in March. We note that, according to the latest available data, total in-market sales of Cresemba amounted to US$473m in the 12 months ending December 2023, representing a +26% year-on-year increase. Basilea is preparing to launch its Phase III programme for fosmanogepix, a broad-spectrum antifungal therapy, with the first of two Phase III trials expected to initiate in mid-2024. The company also made positive regulatory and operational strides with its lead antibiotic asset, Zevtera (following FDA approval in April 2024), and we eagerly await the announcement of a potential US commercial partner.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Li Auto , KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Dentsu Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH June 2024 Rebal – No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way
  • Red Dragon Awakening
  • Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2


HSTECH June 2024 Rebal – No Changes But Big Capping Flows, As Expected; 8% US$1.6bn One-Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The Hang Seng Tech Index is more widely-followed than many think, and it is reasonably concentrated, so outperformance and underperformance by big names means capping and re-capping.
  • This time, those flows are worth about 8% of the index in terms of one-way flows. Meituan, Xiaomi, JD.com, Tencent and Kuaishou Tech DOWN. Li Auto back up. 
  • Those who have pre-positioned on the big buy have recently gotten hurt. There are some FAF changes which are less predictable and may be interesting.

Red Dragon Awakening

By Douglas Busch

  • China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
  • Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
  • In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group

Dentsu Group – FY24 prospects weighted to H2

By Edison Investment Research

Dentsu’s Q1 results indicate a slow start to the year, with organic net revenue down by 3.7%. However, prospects are improving, buoyed by new business wins and weighted to H2, which leave full year expectations (and our forecasts) unchanged. The One dentsu initiative, bringing together skill sets in consulting, technology, media and creative, is supporting improved pitch win rates, and giving greater coherence and consistency to the group product and service offering. We expect this to be a central element of the new management medium-term strategy, set to be unveiled during H2. The rating remains at a substantial discount to global peers, which we anticipate will narrow as evidence of renewed growth builds.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 10th): BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 10th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in BHP, ANZ, Seven, South32, NAB, Telstra, Woolworths, Origin Energy, Xero.

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Daily Brief ESG: Guidebook for Raising P/B Published and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Guidebook for Raising P/B Published, but Still Much Work to Be Done to Achieve Goals


Guidebook for Raising P/B Published, but Still Much Work to Be Done to Achieve Goals

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies have disclosed their cost of capital, so TSE provided specific indicators for this purpose. On the other hand, allergies to cost of capital disclosure are persistent in companies.
  • It is a concern that many companies still have more fixed remuneration than variable remuneration for compensation incentives, which are a mechanism for achieving capital profitability goals like ROE.
  • Engagement with overseas investors can be effective, but there are challenges, such as the existence of passive funds and companies with small market capitalizations that are not eligible for investment.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market?
  • Beike (BEKE US): New Government Measures Aimed at Promoting New Home Sales Warrants Attention
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/05/2024


The Myth of a Rising Short Position by FII in Nifty: A Bottom for the Market?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • FII short contracts are at an all-time high, in the past which signifies the bottom of the market.
  • But It’s a myth, as Number of contracts increased in Nifty due to change in lot size.
  • Data is opposite to narrative. Believe on data, Not Narrative.

Beike (BEKE US): New Government Measures Aimed at Promoting New Home Sales Warrants Attention

By Andy Fu

  • Today, multiple cities in China introduced property stimulus measures to encourage buying new over existing homes. These policies also discourages people from selling their homes.
  • Past measures encouraged home purchases by lowering mortgage rates and down payments, resulting in an increase in existing home transactions, because new home has developer default risks.
  • This time, we saw for the first time, local Chinese governments introduced supplemental policies to guide new home purchases. We believe more of such measures can be on its way.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June (+/-/-/-/-)
  • 1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China’s automatic driving(//////////)
  • LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind(/////)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP/BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US : NetEase’s <Marvel Rivals> has commenced its first round of testing, with players providing positive feedback.(+)
  • 4689 JP/4755 JP/4385 JP: PayPay QR-code system crashed for three hours (-/+/+)
  • BABA US /BIDU US/700 HK: China’s generative AI starts price war mode, led by ByteDance and High-Flyer(/////)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 17/05/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Spudding high impact well – Drilling operations have started at the Carrizales Norte B Pad Horizontal Well 1.
  • This is the first horizontal well drilled in the Ubaque on Tapir.
  • Three more horizontal wells will be drilled on the pad.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
  • Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
  • China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever
  • [Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value
  • Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.
  • JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track
  • KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues
  • LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25
  • Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers
  • WestRock Company: Mill Closure
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit


Japan Post Bank – It’s like a Closed End Mutual Fund More Than Ever

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) saw its net profit surge from non-recurring gains, which was from the sale of stocks. 
  • The company’s cost of funds worsened more than the improvement in its yields, and we believe this remains an issue related to hedging costs.
  • Unrealized gains on foreign bonds remains significantly higher now than a year ago and this may again be the driver for earnings, but still with very low ROA.

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

By Ying Pan

  • Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;
  • Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. 
  • We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.

Eoflow: Financing Requirements, Changing Shareholding Structure, and the Next Steps

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the additional financing requirements, changed shareholding structure, and the next steps for Eoflow. 
  • Eoflow is one of the best performing stocks in the Korean stock market in the past one month as its shares have soared 249% in this period.
  • The details of the oral argument (Insulet vs Eoflow) at the U.S. Appellate Court suggest that the U.S. Appellate Court may rule in favor of Eoflow.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Tech titans foresee the obsolescence of AI PC by Computex 2024, sparking anticipation for new technological advancements.
  • Disney and Warner’s collaboration in the streaming market introduces fresh competition, shaking up the industry landscape.
  • ASML’s thriving in the Angstrom Era credits its success to relentless innovation and adaptability within the semiconductor sector.

JD.com (9618 HK):  1Q24 Results On Track

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced a set of in-line results for 1Q24.  Sales growth was 7% yoy, in-line with my 1Q24 preview.
  • Operating profit margin for the core JD retail business declined by 0.5ppt yoy to 4.1%, which is also in-line with my preview. 
  • The positive surprise was a big reduction in losses in the JD logistics business, which brought the overall non-GAAP net profit growth to 17% yoy for 1Q24. 

KPIT: Stellar Growth Continues

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • KPIT reported a strong Q4FY24 led by 5.1% QoQ revenue growth in constant currency (CC) terms. EBITDA margin came in better than expected at 20.7%.
  • Overall, in line with our projection, KPIT even beat its upgraded guidance by posting YoY revenue growth of 39%+ in CC terms vs 37%+ guided.
  • KPIT has guided for a strong FY25 with revenue guidance of 18-22% in CC terms and EBITDA margin of 20.5%+.

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF): Back on Track | All Set for a Strong FY25

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LICHF faced some teething issues with technology during past 1Y due to which growth and reported asset quality had been subdued. However, with strong Q4FY24, LICHF is back on track.
  • LICHF reported strong growth in disbursements. Q4FY24 disbursements were INR 18200cr+, a growth of 20%+ QoQ. NIM came in higher than expected at 3.15%, despite spike in bond yields.
  • Asset quality improved significantly with Stage 3 assets declining to 3.31% vs 4.26% QoQ and Stage 2 assets declining to 4.20% vs 4.54% QoQ.

Expedia Group: Advancements in GenAI and Personalized Travel Experiences! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group’s Q1 2024 performance reflected a primarily healthy market environment, but growth differed according to geographical area and product line.
  • Notably, North America had the slowest growth compared to other major international markets.
  • Additionally, despite meeting projections on revenue and EBITDA, Expedia experienced weaker gross bookings, with its Vrbo business producing slower recovery than anticipated.

WestRock Company: Mill Closure

By Baptista Research

  • WestRock Company, in the 3rd Fiscal Quarter 2023, posted a net sales of $5.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $802 million, higher than expected due to strong execution, productivity gains, and moderating input costs.
  • CEO David Sewell attributed the strong results to the firm’s resilience and the hard work of its team, even as they faced comparisons with record results from the prior year quarter.
  • However, certain challenges were also observed.

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Resumption of US Sales Growth Raises Hope for Annual Profit

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1Q24, SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS) posted Xcopri U.S. sales of KRW90.9B, up 69% YoY and 17% QoQ. The company remains confident to meet annual sales guidance of KRW390–416B.
  • 1Q24 operating profit reached KRW10B from an operating loss of KRW23B in 1Q23. The company aims to achieve profitability throughout 2024.
  • The company is seeking a second product to strengthen its U.S. and global business. Xcopri also has potential for indication expansion in near future.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Naspers X Prosus (NPN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO
  • EQD | The Nikkei Can Go Higher From Here


Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Naspers and Prosus have announced the appointment of Fabrício Bloisi as Group CEO, effective from 1 July 2024. Unlike his predecessor, Bloisi has an entrepreneurial background.
  • Prosus and Naspers have sold off on the news. Prosus is down 1.7%, widening the discount by 80bps. Naspers is down 1.3%, widening the discount by 50bps.
  • Since Bob van Dijk stepped down in September last year, both discounts have narrowed.

EQD | The Nikkei Can Go Higher From Here

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying a bit last week and closed the week up. A rebound from the previous downtrend is underway.
  • A temporary bottom may have been established in May, it is not clear if the index is about to go lower or higher, but our pattern model readings suggests higher.
  • If the index continues to rally, the first major resistance area will be around 40k.

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