Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop with the company announcing 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Thursday.
We believe, with a very strong Halloween season, the launch of commercial and franchised stores beginning to drive operating momentum, new products and a solid start to the Holiday season, management will be upbeat on current and future trends, and we believe Street expectations for 3Q and FY24 (and our price target) could prove conservative.
As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for BBW.

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

By The Commodity Report

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

LE: 3Q Preview: Showing the Way to Higher Returns; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End with the company announcing 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Thursday.
We believe, with a continued emphasis on reducing discounting, rolling out new products and features to create compelling product (and category) stories and expansion on the licensing and digital marketplace arenas, Lands’ End has continued to shift the overall story to driving higher returns and creating the ability to achieve higher overall revenue.
Further, with a deepening international focus and material emerging opportunities in the Outfitters uniform and embroidery business, we believe Lands’ End continues to rapidly improve their overall business model, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

SKYQ: Developing a New Approach to Recycling Waste Asphalt Shingles

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Sky Quarry Inc (SKYQ)

1Stdibs.Com Inc (DIBS) – Monday, Sep 2, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice
Author may hold long positions in mentioned securities, subject to change
Author is a trader, not obligated to inform readers of transactions, seek expert advice before making investment decisions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead

By Water Tower Research

Vaalco’s asset portfolio combines a mix of long- and short- cycle growth opportunities in every country in which it operates.
Management sequences the capital investment cycles to ensure the company commits capital to projects that have been sufficiently derisked to avoid overcommitting and with an eye to shortening the time from investment to production.
Its budgeting process is anchored by the goal of supporting a sustainable dividend

Evolution Petroleum Corp. – Organic Investment Opportunities Support Dividend Strategy

By Water Tower Research

Evolution’s framework is focused on marrying acquisitions of long-lived shallow decline producing assets complemented by organic growth opportunities to grow the underlying business and support its dividend.
The company’s 45th consecutive quarterly dividend is scheduled to be paid on December 31, 2024, in the amount of $0.12/share. The current yield is 8.2%.
Ongoing development in the Chaveroo oilfield in the Permian Basin is expected to contribute incremental oil volumes in Evolution’s fiscal fourth quarter (June).

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Dec 03

Daily Brief India: Persistent Systems, CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia), Bank Of Baroda, Quess Corp Ltd, Mouri Tech Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade
Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis
Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps
Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?
Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&O inclusions.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.

Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

MapmyIndia decided to hive off its B2C business to a promoter entity which will be funded and backed by the current listed entity.
Hiving off loss-making business will lead to margin improvement for the listed entity but will increase the cash burn to fund loss-making business
Departure of current CEO, taking funding from listed entity to fund this loss-making business where Promoter has the stake raises corporate governance issues.

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher

Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) will spinoff into 3 different companies, each representing a business vertical of its consolidated operations. All three companies are expected to be listed during Q1FY26.
It has received approval from the stock exchanges and is now awaiting the go ahead from National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).
Improving business performance and sum-of-the-parts valuation of the three separate listed businesses indicate potential upside from the current valuation.

Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining

By Rosita Fernandes

Mouri Tech Limited (MT IN) is planning to raise about US$179m through its upcoming IPO in India. It is a provider of IT solutions, focusing on (iERP) and digital transformation services.
Mouri Tech operates in four main segments: iERP solutions, enterprise digital transformation, infrastructure services, and program management. Its iERP offerings include both on-premise and cloud-based systems.
The digital transformation services help organizations automate and modernize their processes. The infrastructure services include cloud engineering and cybersecurity solutions.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Kioxia Holdings , Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Toyo Corp, Duskin Co Ltd, LaKeel and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025
Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting
Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float
Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)
Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Poised to Enjoy Structural Growth from Increasing Defense Spending
Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated
LaKeel (4074 JP) – Concerns over the Quality of Earnings

Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025

By Travis Lundy

A Bloomberg article mid-day suggested Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare proposed a new “wage growth +1.9%” (vs 1.7% now) return bogey for the US$1.7trln Government Pension Investment Fund.
The GPIF is conducting its quinquennial review to assess markets, long-term prospects, correlations, etc, to set a CAPM asset allocation mix to meet the bogey.
The combination of higher USDJPY, Japan inflation, wider valuation spreads, and the prospect of higher yen rates suggests the review might result in lower yen bond allocs, higher equity allocs.

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

By Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).
TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.

Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)

By Mark Chadwick

The recent pull-back in the share price of KHI provides a cheap entry point into the defense spending thematic
KHI’s defense revenues are projected to soar by 40% to ¥406 billion in FY24, outpacing industry leader MHI’s 20% growth
KHI and MJI to benefit from Japan’s defense spending doubling to 2% of GDP by 2027 and ¥43 trillion ($320 billion) earmarked over five years.

Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Poised to Enjoy Structural Growth from Increasing Defense Spending

Substantial OP growth – Q4FY9/ 24 results showed strong OP growth in Mechatronics / Noise & Vibration / Sensors (+80.2% YoY), Physics / Energies (+37.0% YoY), and Others (+50.0% YoY).
The OP growth of Others was primarily driven by the expansion of Ocean, Defense & Security.
Negative near term but positive long term – whilst FY9/25 guidance indicates a sharp 28.7% decline in OP YoY, the new medium-term plan indicates 10%+ CAGR for OP growth, and ROE expansion to 11.0% during FY9/25-FY9/27, which we view positively.

Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated

The key takeaway from the Q1-2 FY3/25 result is that Duskin is making solid strides forward, although previous earnings projections appear to have been too ambitious.
Management has experienced challenges in aligning earnings guidance with actual performance, and there is a risk over whether it can deliver the planned ROI on the major ¥21bn capex automation project at the Direct Selling Group.
The Food Group continues to perform positively towards its full potential at ‘Mister Donut’, and we believe this segment will continue to be the core contributor to earnings growth.

LaKeel (4074 JP) – Concerns over the Quality of Earnings

Despite a positive market environment for IT capex driven by DX demand, the company is said to be experiencing longer contract lead times when dealing with increasing project sizes.
Consequently, earnings visibility has fallen, resulting in a downward revision to FY12/24 guidance, stemming from a drop in license sales and consulting.
Difficulties with forecasting indicate potential concerns over management execution and challenges over technology adoption by customers in our view.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief China: HKBN Ltd, Jiangsu Hoperun Software, Hwatsing Technology , Baimtec Material , Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Hang Seng Index, Pacific Textiles and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow
Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way
Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Dec 24 Results: ~80% Hit Rate; US$1bn+ One-Way Flows
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s “Fair” Tendering Offer
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29
EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI Nov 25-29
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)‘s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK’s irrevocable suggest the offer is light.
An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray.

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the December rebalance.
We correctly forecast 4/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 12.24bn (US$1.69bn).

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow

There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 0.9x ADV in Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH) and sell 0.5x ADV in StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH).
The add has outperformed the delete, but not by a lot. There could be more outperformance over the next couple of weeks.

Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way

The December 2024 index review results for the CSI National Defense Industry Index were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
There will be seven changes for the CSI National Defense Industry Index.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance.

Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Dec 24 Results: ~80% Hit Rate; US$1bn+ One-Way Flows

The December 2024 index review results for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 indices were announced yesterday.
There will be seven changes for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index. Some of these names surprised us.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s “Fair” Tendering Offer

By David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) was a logical suitor for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). A non-PRC (or government-affiliated) corporation taking over a media/broadband/telco in Hong Kong is probably a non-starter.
China Mobile has a made a pre-conditional voluntary Offer at HK$5.23/share, a 40.97% premium to undisturbed. The price is final.
Pre-Cons are the usual suspects (NDRC, Mofcom & SASAC). The Offer itself conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle, with 24.96% in the bag. The intention is to maintain HKBN’s listing.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD’s Special Dividend announcement made investors “unhappy”. PAGD’s operation after IPO is a big failure, which is why there were large amounts of funds left that were not used.
Being a “vassal” of Ping An Group won’t bring high valuation due to limited growth potential. There’s still room for stock price/valuation to decline. Investors need not rush to buy.
The Special Dividend will be approved. Ping An’s idea is to increase shareholding ratio by distributing dividends, which can also lower PAGD’s stock price, providing opportunity for a low-price privatization.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

By John Ley

Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.
ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)
Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI Nov 25-29

By John Ley

Price jump on Wednesday led implied vol higher but vols were otherwise soft with passing of key events in November.
Large jump in option activity on Wednesday was likely due to positions being closed out as open interest declined for both Puts and Calls on the week.
HSCEI has more support for implied vols at these levels with short term historic vols trading above 1M implied vol.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024

By Sameer Taneja

The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 38%, stocks are trading at 5-15% dividend yields.
We update investors with results from Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) H1 FY25: 16-17% Dividend Yield Intact and Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), which guided down earnings due to interruptions in Vietnam.
We also flag Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) results, buybacks, and some updates from our conference call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) management.

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Dec 03

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A, Northern Star Resources, HKBN Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Jiangsu Hoperun Software, Kioxia Holdings , Hwatsing Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7 & I (3382) – York Holdings Sale Process, Timeline, Nuances
CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade
Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow
HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO
Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025
ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade
Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow
Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting
Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

7 & I (3382) – York Holdings Sale Process, Timeline, Nuances

By Travis Lundy

The sale process of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) “unit” York Holdings, with 31 sub-units, has started. 7+ bidders bid in Round 1. Due dili follows then Round 2.
I expect SST+support ops get sold, and the specialty stores get carved out. I expect the deal to get decided by end-Feb 2025. Noises about real estate enhancement are encouraging.
This is still all to the good, so I include a Gratuitous Chart Showing 7&i’s Up-And-To-The-Rightness

CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 Index Rebalance: US$9bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 16 changes for the CSI 300 Index, 50 changes for the CSI 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI1000 Index that will be implemented on 13 December.
There are 257 unique names that are adds or deletes and the round-trip trade across all 3 indices is close to US$9bn.
Stocks with the largest inflows and impact have outperformed stocks with the largest outflows and impact over the last few weeks. That could continue for the next couple of weeks.

Northern Star (NST AU) To Acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Offer Details & Index Flow

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) has agreed to acquire De Grey Mining (DEG AU) by way of a Scheme of Arrangement in an all-stock deal.
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders will receive 0.119 Northern Star Resources (NST AU) shares for each De Grey share held. That implies a 37.1% premium to the last close.
There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at the time of merger completion, though there could be selling from some existing De Grey Mining (DEG) shareholders.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)‘s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK’s irrevocable suggest the offer is light.
An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray.

Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025

By Travis Lundy

A Bloomberg article mid-day suggested Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare proposed a new “wage growth +1.9%” (vs 1.7% now) return bogey for the US$1.7trln Government Pension Investment Fund.
The GPIF is conducting its quinquennial review to assess markets, long-term prospects, correlations, etc, to set a CAPM asset allocation mix to meet the bogey.
The combination of higher USDJPY, Japan inflation, wider valuation spreads, and the prospect of higher yen rates suggests the review might result in lower yen bond allocs, higher equity allocs.

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the December rebalance.
We correctly forecast 4/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 12.24bn (US$1.69bn).

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is a leading player in the NAND flash memory market. It will list on 18 December and seek to raise up to US$727 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of JPY1,390-1,520 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow

There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 0.9x ADV in Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH) and sell 0.5x ADV in StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH).
The add has outperformed the delete, but not by a lot. There could be more outperformance over the next couple of weeks.

Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

By Sumeet Singh

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.
It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).
TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Health Care: Telix Pharmaceuticals, Oramed Pharmaceuticals , Recce Ltd, Revelation Biosciences and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Pipeline Progress to Expand Portfolio; Favorable Payment Rule in US
ORMP: Preparations for New Phase 3 Trial Advance
Recce Pharmaceuticals – Topical R327G approaching pivotal stages
REVB: Phase 1b Study Cleared

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Pipeline Progress to Expand Portfolio; Favorable Payment Rule in US

By Tina Banerjee

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) initiated Phase 3 ZIRCON-CP trial of PET imaging candidate TLX250-CDx for clear cell renal cell carcinoma and dosed first patient in a cancer hospital in China.
Telix is focused on expanding the near-term opportunity in precision medicine diagnostics with three new products planned for launch in 2025.
CMS will unbundle and pay separately for specialized diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals for Medicare patients with per-day costs exceeding $630. The new payment decision is in favor of Telix.

ORMP: Preparations for New Phase 3 Trial Advance

By Zacks Small Cap Research

ORMP is leveraging its strong balance sheet – ~$142m in cash, equivalents, ST investments & deposits, no LT debt – to optimize its cash position.
The company is augmenting its cash position with repayments / interest from collateralized loans issued to Scilex & to a domestic real estate project.
Management expects its resources are sufficient to maintain planned activities for roughly at least the next year as clinical activities pick-up and as it maintains strategic share repurchases under its 2024 share buyback plan.

Recce Pharmaceuticals – Topical R327G approaching pivotal stages

By Edison Investment Research

Recce Pharmaceuticals has made several strides in advancing its topical gel formulation (R327G) of lead anti-infective therapeutic drug candidate RECCE® 327 (R327) as a topical treatment for acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) and diabetic foot infections (DFIs). The company received Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) approval to start a registrational Phase III DFI study in Indonesia, which, if successful, could lead to a commercial launch in South-East Asia in CY26. With the near-term focus on advancing the ABSSSI and DFI indications providing a clearer path to future revenues, we have pushed back our timing expectations for the IV R327 formulation, resulting in an updated risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of A$593.6m (or A$2.60/share), versus A$688.5m (or A$3.07/share share) previously.

REVB: Phase 1b Study Cleared

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
The company announced that the FDA has accepted its IND application for Gemini and that it expects to begin the study in early 2025.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Industrials: Yang Ming Marine Transport, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Baimtec Material , Quess Corp Ltd, Environmental Group, bpost SA, Duskin Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations
Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)
Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way
Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?
The Environmental Group Limited – Buy – Price: $0.28; TP: $0.35
What’s News in Amsterdam – 2 December 2024 (Unilever | PostNL / IDS | bpostgroup | Black Friday update)
Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations

In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
The base date for the December 2024 review was 25th November 2024. However, after the base date, the index selection methodology has been changed.
As a result, we are revising our expectations for index changes and flow expectations.

Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)

By Mark Chadwick

The recent pull-back in the share price of KHI provides a cheap entry point into the defense spending thematic
KHI’s defense revenues are projected to soar by 40% to ¥406 billion in FY24, outpacing industry leader MHI’s 20% growth
KHI and MJI to benefit from Japan’s defense spending doubling to 2% of GDP by 2027 and ¥43 trillion ($320 billion) earmarked over five years.

Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way

The December 2024 index review results for the CSI National Defense Industry Index were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
There will be seven changes for the CSI National Defense Industry Index.
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance.

Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) will spinoff into 3 different companies, each representing a business vertical of its consolidated operations. All three companies are expected to be listed during Q1FY26.
It has received approval from the stock exchanges and is now awaiting the go ahead from National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).
Improving business performance and sum-of-the-parts valuation of the three separate listed businesses indicate potential upside from the current valuation.

The Environmental Group Limited – Buy – Price: $0.28; TP: $0.35

By MA Moelis Australia

Core business driving increasing recurring revenue profile: Strong growth history with recent successful conversion to recurring revenue – now 50%+ of the business’ revenue – provides more visible earnings certainty.
Recent history of solid growth is set to continue in core operating segments, while commercialising water treatment technology is option for potential upside in the stock.
Cash generative, profitable, and capital-light business model: Energy (boilers) and Baltec (exhaust systems) in particular provide cash generative and profitable support for the business to prosecute building out its suite of environmental engineered solutions.

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What’s News in Amsterdam – 2 December 2024 (Unilever | PostNL / IDS | bpostgroup | Black Friday update)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Unilever | confirms its intention to sell off certain local brands • bpostgroup | CEO stresses sense of urgency for a quick transformation • Black Friday update | iDEAL transactions on Black Friday lower than last year’s

Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated

The key takeaway from the Q1-2 FY3/25 result is that Duskin is making solid strides forward, although previous earnings projections appear to have been too ambitious.
Management has experienced challenges in aligning earnings guidance with actual performance, and there is a risk over whether it can deliver the planned ROI on the major ¥21bn capex automation project at the Direct Selling Group.
The Food Group continues to perform positively towards its full potential at ‘Mister Donut’, and we believe this segment will continue to be the core contributor to earnings growth.

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: De Grey Mining, Korea Zinc, Sanil Electric, Crude Oil, DGL Group, Covestro AG, OCI NV, Gold, Capitan Silver , VAALCO Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors
A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning
An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025
US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
Playing With Fire
ADNOC/Covestro: Offer Results Update
SSI Weekly: OCI’s EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade
Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?
Capitan Silver Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition
VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

De Grey Mining (DEG AU) entered a binding scheme with Northern Star Resources (NST AU) at 0.119 NST shares per DEG share, implying A$2.08, a 37.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The scheme is conditional on DEG shareholder approval. Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), the largest shareholder, potentially holds a blocking stake and has not provided an irrevocable.
The offer is susceptible to a competing offer as it is all-scrip and unremarkable vs peer multiples. Barrick Gold (GOLD US) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US) are potential suitors.

A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning

By Douglas Kim

The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December.
By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks.
Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.

An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2025.
These seven potential inclusion candidates are up on average 8.9% from end of Sept 2024 to 2 December 2024 versus KOSPI which is down 5.4% in the same period.
The potential additions include IPOs in 2024 such as HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS), and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).

US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

By Suhas Reddy

The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.

Playing With Fire

By The Mikro Kap

Hello, Welcome to the third edition of the Mikro Kap Wathclist, a series in which I go deeper into unique opportunities from my watchlist that, IMO, are worth monitoring closely.
This way, you can act decisively when the moment comes, rather than spending weeks on initial research.
These kinds of stocks would probably be a part of my portfolio if I were older, more diversified, or both.

ADNOC/Covestro: Offer Results Update

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ADNOC International (XRG) secured a controlling 69.94% stake in Covestro after the initial acceptance period, surpassing the 50% plus one share threshold.
Regulatory Approvals Pending: The transaction awaits merger control, foreign investment, and EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation clearances, with finalization expected in H2 2025 (usual timeline for deal in the chemical industry).
Remaining shareholders can tender their shares during the additional acceptance period; squeeze-out is likely. Recommendation is tender.

SSI Weekly: OCI’s EBITDA Clarification, CURN Buyback, TIFS Deal, LTG Deadline, Grifols Trade

By Dalius Tauraitis

OCI N.V.’s expected mid-cycle EBITDA for the European Nitrogen business is clarified at $150m, affecting valuation calculations.
Currency Exchange International announced a new 5% share buyback authorization, with previous buyback pace remaining slow.
Grifols’ potential reverse arbitrage trade involves long Class A shares, short Class B shares, amid merger considerations.

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

By The Commodity Report

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

Capitan Silver Corp – Mining Monthly: November Edition

By Atrium Research

Following the election of Donald Trump, gold and precious metals fell sharply alongside the mining equities.
Despite the shock drop, the metals began a reassuring rebound in the back half of the month.
Mining equities performed negatively with the GDX down 6.7%, GDXJ down 7.4%, SIL down 6.0%, and COPX down 2.4%.

VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead

By Water Tower Research

Vaalco’s asset portfolio combines a mix of long- and short- cycle growth opportunities in every country in which it operates.
Management sequences the capital investment cycles to ensure the company commits capital to projects that have been sufficiently derisked to avoid overcommitting and with an eye to shortening the time from investment to production.
Its budgeting process is anchored by the goal of supporting a sustainable dividend

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Dec 03

Daily Brief Consumer: Starbucks Corp, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia), Pacific Textiles, Lands’ End Inc, Build A Bear Workshop, 1stdibs.com and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook
Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Aiming to Repeat the Performance of Its Parent’s Listing
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024
LE: 3Q Preview: Showing the Way to Higher Returns; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
BBW: 3Q Preview: No Scare in 3Q; Xmas Starts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
1Stdibs.Com Inc (DIBS) – Monday, Sep 2, 2024

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

By Ming Lu

Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.
Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.
SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD’s Special Dividend announcement made investors “unhappy”. PAGD’s operation after IPO is a big failure, which is why there were large amounts of funds left that were not used.
Being a “vassal” of Ping An Group won’t bring high valuation due to limited growth potential. There’s still room for stock price/valuation to decline. Investors need not rush to buy.
The Special Dividend will be approved. Ping An’s idea is to increase shareholding ratio by distributing dividends, which can also lower PAGD’s stock price, providing opportunity for a low-price privatization.

Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Aiming to Repeat the Performance of Its Parent’s Listing

By Clarence Chu

PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) is looking to raise US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The entity is the Indonesian entity under the Mr DIY group’s list of subsidiaries.
In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024

By Sameer Taneja

The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 38%, stocks are trading at 5-15% dividend yields.
We update investors with results from Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) H1 FY25: 16-17% Dividend Yield Intact and Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), which guided down earnings due to interruptions in Vietnam.
We also flag Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) results, buybacks, and some updates from our conference call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) management.

LE: 3Q Preview: Showing the Way to Higher Returns; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End with the company announcing 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Thursday.
We believe, with a continued emphasis on reducing discounting, rolling out new products and features to create compelling product (and category) stories and expansion on the licensing and digital marketplace arenas, Lands’ End has continued to shift the overall story to driving higher returns and creating the ability to achieve higher overall revenue.
Further, with a deepening international focus and material emerging opportunities in the Outfitters uniform and embroidery business, we believe Lands’ End continues to rapidly improve their overall business model, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

BBW: 3Q Preview: No Scare in 3Q; Xmas Starts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT