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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO
  • Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025
  • ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade
  • CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow
  • De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors
  • A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning
  • Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations
  • TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: US$2.8bn Trade as Adds Outperform
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

By Arun George

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)‘s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
  • The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK’s irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   
  • An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. 

Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025

By Travis Lundy

  • A Bloomberg article mid-day suggested Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare proposed a new “wage growth +1.9%” (vs 1.7% now) return bogey for the US$1.7trln Government Pension Investment Fund. 
  • The GPIF is conducting its quinquennial review to assess markets, long-term prospects, correlations, etc, to set a CAPM asset allocation mix to meet the bogey.
  • The combination of higher USDJPY, Japan inflation, wider valuation spreads, and the prospect of higher yen rates suggests the review might result in lower yen bond allocs, higher equity allocs.

ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the December rebalance.
  • We correctly forecast 4/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
  • Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 12.24bn (US$1.69bn).

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
  • Passive trackers are estimated to buy 0.9x ADV in Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH) and sell 0.5x ADV in StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)
  • The add has outperformed the delete, but not by a lot. There could be more outperformance over the next couple of weeks.

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

By Arun George


A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning

By Douglas Kim

  • The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December. 
  • By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks. 
  • Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

By Brian Freitas

  • Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
  • At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).
  • TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Late Changes to Methodology; New Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • The base date for the December 2024 review was 25th November 2024. However, after the base date, the index selection methodology has been changed.
  • As a result, we are revising our expectations for index changes and flow expectations.

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div Index Rebalance Preview: US$2.8bn Trade as Adds Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 285bn (US$8.75bn).
  • We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of around 16% and a round-trip trade of around US$2.8bn.
  • An equal weighted basket of potential inclusions has outperformed an equal weighted basket of potential deletions since the start of July with most of the outperformance coming from September.

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.
  • Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.
  • We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.

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Daily Brief Macro: Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It!
  • US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
  • Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?
  • HEM: Shrinking Euro Doves
  • The Week Ahead – Give Thanks For
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BCA’s Slower Expectations, BRI’s Ultra Attractive, and ACES
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Remittances point to a record for 2024, close to USD 65 billion.
  • Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?


Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It!

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
  • These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
  • While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
  • For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
  • The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.

Steno Signals #128- I thought Trump and tariffs were supposed to lead to a bond riot?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday, friends, and welcome to my straight-to-the-point editorial on everything macro!Just as everyone had concluded that Trump and his (alleged) trade wars would be bond-unfriendly, the bond market has started performing much better—exactly as we suggested would happen following the election results.
  • The first major difference compared to 2016, when bonds rioted after Trump’s victory, is that Trump was the clear base case this time around.
  • The second major difference is that Trump’s policy mix is not inflationary this time—in fact, it’s quite the opposite.

HEM: Shrinking Euro Doves

By Phil Rush

  • Europe’s economic underperformance is overpriced, with labor cost increases exceeding target-consistent levels.
  • Current activity trends indicate a nearly neutral monetary policy.
  • The Bank of England is expected to maintain its position, while the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve are predicted to cut 25 basis points, with cuts likely to cease early in 2025.

The Week Ahead – Give Thanks For

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Trump announced potential tariff policies on social media targeting Canada and Mexico, leading to a weakening in both currencies.
  • Trump appointed key members to his economic team, setting the tone for his administration’s policies.
  • Markets are anticipating the Fed meeting in December, with expectations of a dovish hold and strong labor market reports.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BCA’s Slower Expectations, BRI’s Ultra Attractive, and ACES

By Angus Mackintosh


Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Remittances point to a record for 2024, close to USD 65 billion.

By Actinver

  • In October, Mexico received USD 5.723 billion in remittances, accumulating a balance of USD 54 billion so far this year (2.2% YoY).
  • This suggests that remittances could reach a record high of close to USD 65.5 billion this year.
  • Given the 20% depreciation of the national currency against the dollar along 2024, remittances have increased again in pesos, reaching 1,153 billion pesos.

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

By The Commodity Report

  • Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
  • The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
  • The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

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Daily Brief Australia: De Grey Mining, Waypoint REIT, DGL Group, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Environmental Group, Recce Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes
  • Playing With Fire
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Pipeline Progress to Expand Portfolio; Favorable Payment Rule in US
  • The Environmental Group Limited – Buy – Price: $0.28; TP: $0.35
  • Recce Pharmaceuticals – Topical R327G approaching pivotal stages


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Northern Star (NST AU)’s All-Scrip Offer Could Draw Out Competing Suitors

By Arun George


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.
  • Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.
  • We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.

Playing With Fire

By The Mikro Kap

  • Hello, Welcome to the third edition of the Mikro Kap Wathclist, a series in which I go deeper into unique opportunities from my watchlist that, IMO, are worth monitoring closely.
  • This way, you can act decisively when the moment comes, rather than spending weeks on initial research.
  • These kinds of stocks would probably be a part of my portfolio if I were older, more diversified, or both.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Pipeline Progress to Expand Portfolio; Favorable Payment Rule in US

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) initiated Phase 3 ZIRCON-CP trial of PET imaging candidate TLX250-CDx for clear cell renal cell carcinoma and dosed first patient in a cancer hospital in China.
  • Telix is focused on expanding the near-term opportunity in precision medicine diagnostics with three new products planned for launch in 2025.
  • CMS will unbundle and pay separately for specialized diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals for Medicare patients with per-day costs exceeding $630. The new payment decision is in favor of Telix.

The Environmental Group Limited – Buy – Price: $0.28; TP: $0.35

By MA Moelis Australia

  • Core business driving increasing recurring revenue profile: Strong growth history with recent successful conversion to recurring revenue – now 50%+ of the business’ revenue – provides more visible earnings certainty.
  • Recent history of solid growth is set to continue in core operating segments, while commercialising water treatment technology is option for potential upside in the stock.
  • Cash generative, profitable, and capital-light business model: Energy (boilers) and Baltec (exhaust systems) in particular provide cash generative and profitable support for the business to prosecute building out its suite of environmental engineered solutions.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Recce Pharmaceuticals – Topical R327G approaching pivotal stages

By Edison Investment Research

Recce Pharmaceuticals has made several strides in advancing its topical gel formulation (R327G) of lead anti-infective therapeutic drug candidate RECCE® 327 (R327) as a topical treatment for acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) and diabetic foot infections (DFIs). The company received Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) approval to start a registrational Phase III DFI study in Indonesia, which, if successful, could lead to a commercial launch in South-East Asia in CY26. With the near-term focus on advancing the ABSSSI and DFI indications providing a clearer path to future revenues, we have pushed back our timing expectations for the IV R327 formulation, resulting in an updated risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of A$593.6m (or A$2.60/share), versus A$688.5m (or A$3.07/share share) previously.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, Sanil Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning
  • An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025


A Comparison of Korea Zinc’s M&A in 2024 Vs SM Entertainment’s M&A in 2023 in the 9th Inning

By Douglas Kim

  • The EGM for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is expected to be held on 23 January 2025. Accordingly, the shareholder registry is expected to be closed around 19 – 23 December. 
  • By better analyzing the timeline of the M&A of SM Entertainment, we may be able to get better clues to Korea Zinc’s price movement in the next several weeks. 
  • Notice the double top share price formation of SM Entertainment in 2023 versus the potential double top formation of Korea Zinc in 2024. These trading formations look eerily similar.

An Early Look at Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI200 in June 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2025.
  • These seven potential inclusion candidates are up on average 8.9% from end of Sept 2024 to 2 December 2024 versus KOSPI which is down 5.4% in the same period. 
  • The potential additions include IPOs in 2024 such as HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), Shift Up (462870 KS), and Sanil Electric (062040 KS). 

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Daily Brief Singapore: Keppel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • DBS buys back nearly S$15m of its shares; AGT Partners becomes Oiltek’s substantial shareholder


DBS buys back nearly S$15m of its shares; AGT Partners becomes Oiltek’s substantial shareholder

By Geoff Howie

  • Over the five trading sessions from Nov 22 to 28, institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks, resulting in a net institutional inflow of S$188 million, reversing the net outflow of S$38 million observed over the five preceding sessions up to Nov 21.
  • Stocks that led the net institutional inflow over the five sessions through to Nov 22 were Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, Keppel, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Singapore Exchange, United Overseas Bank, Seatrium, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Eneco Energy and Thai Beverage Public Co.
  • On Nov 22, Lim Keen Ban Holdings Pte Ltd acquired 1.6 million shares of Cortina Holdings at S$2.90 per share.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Aiming to Repeat the Performance of Its Parent’s Listing


Mr DIY Indonesia IPO – Aiming to Repeat the Performance of Its Parent’s Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk (Mr DIY Indonesia) (2517930D IJ) is looking to raise US$296m from its Indonesia IPO.
  • Mr DIY Indonesia (MRDIYI) is a home improvement retailer. The entity is the Indonesian entity under the Mr DIY group’s list of subsidiaries.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Starbucks Corp, Crude Oil, Build A Bear Workshop, Gold, Lands’ End Inc, Sky Quarry, 1stdibs.com , VAALCO Energy, Evolution Petroleum and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel CEO Shock Resignation. What’s Going On?
  • China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD
  • US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline
  • BBW: 3Q Preview: No Scare in 3Q; Xmas Starts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
  • Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?
  • LE: 3Q Preview: Showing the Way to Higher Returns; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • SKYQ: Developing a New Approach to Recycling Waste Asphalt Shingles
  • 1Stdibs.Com Inc (DIBS) – Monday, Sep 2, 2024
  • VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead
  • Evolution Petroleum Corp. – Organic Investment Opportunities Support Dividend Strategy


Intel CEO Shock Resignation. What’s Going On?

By William Keating

  • No stated reason for Mr. Gelsinger’s shock resignation as Intel’s CEO. 
  • CFO and CCG leaders named as interim co-CEO’s with the latter also assuming a newly created role as CEO of Intel’s Products (CCG, DCAI & NEX)
  • It’s the beginning of the end for Intel as we used to know it

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

By Ming Lu

  • Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.
  • Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.
  • SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.

US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 582 for the week ending on 27/Nov, reporting a third consecutive weekly fall.
  • For the week ending 22/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.2m bpd the week prior. US output inched close to its all-time high of 13.5m bpd.
  • The number of active US oil rigs fell by two to 477, the lowest since July. Conversely, the US gas rig count rose by one to 100.

BBW: 3Q Preview: No Scare in 3Q; Xmas Starts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop with the company announcing 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Thursday.
  • We believe, with a very strong Halloween season, the launch of commercial and franchised stores beginning to drive operating momentum, new products and a solid start to the Holiday season, management will be upbeat on current and future trends, and we believe Street expectations for 3Q and FY24 (and our price target) could prove conservative.
  • As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for BBW.

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

By The Commodity Report

  • Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs – putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.
  • The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.
  • The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

LE: 3Q Preview: Showing the Way to Higher Returns; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End with the company announcing 3QFY24 (October) results before the open on Thursday.
  • We believe, with a continued emphasis on reducing discounting, rolling out new products and features to create compelling product (and category) stories and expansion on the licensing and digital marketplace arenas, Lands’ End has continued to shift the overall story to driving higher returns and creating the ability to achieve higher overall revenue.
  • Further, with a deepening international focus and material emerging opportunities in the Outfitters uniform and embroidery business, we believe Lands’ End continues to rapidly improve their overall business model, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.


1Stdibs.Com Inc (DIBS) – Monday, Sep 2, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice
  • Author may hold long positions in mentioned securities, subject to change
  • Author is a trader, not obligated to inform readers of transactions, seek expert advice before making investment decisions

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


VAALCO Energy, Inc.: A Busy Year Ahead

By Water Tower Research

  • Vaalco’s asset portfolio combines a mix of long- and short- cycle growth opportunities in every country in which it operates.
  • Management sequences the capital investment cycles to ensure the company commits capital to projects that have been sufficiently derisked to avoid overcommitting and with an eye to shortening the time from investment to production.
  • Its budgeting process is anchored by the goal of supporting a sustainable dividend

Evolution Petroleum Corp. – Organic Investment Opportunities Support Dividend Strategy

By Water Tower Research

  • Evolution’s framework is focused on marrying acquisitions of long-lived shallow decline producing assets complemented by organic growth opportunities to grow the underlying business and support its dividend.
  • The company’s 45th consecutive quarterly dividend is scheduled to be paid on December 31, 2024, in the amount of $0.12/share. The current yield is 8.2%.
  • Ongoing development in the Chaveroo oilfield in the Permian Basin is expected to contribute incremental oil volumes in Evolution’s fiscal fourth quarter (June).

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Daily Brief India: Persistent Systems, CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia), Bank Of Baroda, Quess Corp Ltd, Mouri Tech Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade
  • Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis
  • Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps
  • Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?
  • Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 65% One-Way Turnover and US$1.6bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 19 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. There are some stocks from the new F&O inclusions.
  • If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 65.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 71bn (US$837m).
  • The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of July. The pace picked up over the last month as we neared the end of the review period.

Strategic Decision by MapMyIndia: Segregating B2C and B2B Businesses – A Detailed Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • MapmyIndia decided to hive off its B2C business to a promoter entity which will be funded and backed by the current listed entity.
  • Hiving off loss-making business will lead to margin improvement for the listed entity but will increase the cash burn to fund loss-making business
  • Departure of current CEO, taking funding from listed entity to fund this loss-making business where Promoter has the stake raises corporate governance issues.

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

  • Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
  • Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality
  • Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher

Quess Corp – Can the Spinoff of India’s Largest Staffing Company Unlock Value?

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Quess Corp Ltd (QUESS IN) will spinoff into 3 different companies, each representing a business vertical of its consolidated operations. All three companies are expected to be listed during Q1FY26.
  • It has received approval from the stock exchanges and is now awaiting the go ahead from National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT).
  • Improving business performance and sum-of-the-parts valuation of the three separate listed businesses indicate potential upside from the current valuation.

Mouri Tech Pre-IPO – Growth Slowing, Customers and Employee Numbers Declining

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Mouri Tech Limited (MT IN) is planning to raise about US$179m through its upcoming IPO in India. It is a provider of IT solutions, focusing on (iERP) and digital transformation services.
  • Mouri Tech operates in four main segments: iERP solutions, enterprise digital transformation, infrastructure services, and program management. Its iERP offerings include both on-premise and cloud-based systems.
  • The digital transformation services help organizations automate and modernize their processes. The infrastructure services include cloud engineering and cybersecurity solutions.

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Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Kioxia Holdings , Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Toyo Corp, Duskin Co Ltd, LaKeel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025
  • Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting
  • Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float
  • Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)
  • Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Poised to Enjoy Structural Growth from Increasing Defense Spending
  • Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated
  • LaKeel (4074 JP) – Concerns over the Quality of Earnings


Circumstances and GPIF Noises Could Mean Higher Equity Allocations In March 2025

By Travis Lundy

  • A Bloomberg article mid-day suggested Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare proposed a new “wage growth +1.9%” (vs 1.7% now) return bogey for the US$1.7trln Government Pension Investment Fund. 
  • The GPIF is conducting its quinquennial review to assess markets, long-term prospects, correlations, etc, to set a CAPM asset allocation mix to meet the bogey.
  • The combination of higher USDJPY, Japan inflation, wider valuation spreads, and the prospect of higher yen rates suggests the review might result in lower yen bond allocs, higher equity allocs.

Kioxia (285A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Kioxia IPO – Should Price at the Top, Though Peers Are Still Correcting

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) is aiming to raise around US$840m (including over-allocation) in its Japan IPO.
  • It was the world’s largest pure-play NAND flash memory supplier, in terms of both revenue and unit shipments in 2023, according to TechInsights.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

Kioxia (285A) IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Overhang from Plans to Increase Float

By Brian Freitas

  • Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 18 December.
  • At the mid-point of the IPO price range of JPY 1390-1520/share, Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) will be valued at JPY 784bn (US$5.24bn).
  • TOPIX inclusion will take place in January while inclusion in global indices is likely to take place in May and June. Selling stock to increase float will be an overhang.

Japan Alpha | Bullish KHI (And MHI)

By Mark Chadwick

  • The recent pull-back in the share price of KHI provides a cheap entry point into the defense spending thematic
  • KHI’s defense revenues are projected to soar by 40% to ¥406 billion in FY24, outpacing industry leader MHI’s 20% growth
  • KHI and MJI to benefit from Japan’s defense spending doubling to 2% of GDP by 2027 and ¥43 trillion ($320 billion) earmarked over five years. 

Toyo Corporation (8151 JP) – Poised to Enjoy Structural Growth from Increasing Defense Spending

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Substantial OP growth – Q4FY9/ 24 results showed strong OP growth in Mechatronics / Noise & Vibration / Sensors (+80.2% YoY), Physics / Energies (+37.0% YoY), and Others (+50.0% YoY).
  • The OP growth of Others was primarily driven by the expansion of Ocean, Defense & Security.
  • Negative near term but positive long termwhilst FY9/25 guidance indicates a sharp 28.7% decline in OP YoY, the new medium-term plan indicates 10%+ CAGR for OP growth, and ROE expansion to 11.0% during FY9/25-FY9/27, which we view positively.

Duskin (4665) – Forward Momentum Moderated

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • The key takeaway from the Q1-2 FY3/25 result is that Duskin is making solid strides forward, although previous earnings projections appear to have been too ambitious.
  • Management has experienced challenges in aligning earnings guidance with actual performance, and there is a risk over whether it can deliver the planned ROI on the major ¥21bn capex automation project at the Direct Selling Group.
  • The Food Group continues to perform positively towards its full potential at ‘Mister Donut’, and we believe this segment will continue to be the core contributor to earnings growth.

LaKeel (4074 JP) – Concerns over the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Despite a positive market environment for IT capex driven by DX demand, the company is said to be experiencing longer contract lead times when dealing with increasing project sizes.
  • Consequently, earnings visibility has fallen, resulting in a downward revision to FY12/24 guidance, stemming from a drop in license sales and consulting.
  • Difficulties with forecasting indicate potential concerns over management execution and challenges over technology adoption by customers in our view. 

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Daily Brief China: HKBN Ltd, Jiangsu Hoperun Software, Hwatsing Technology , Baimtec Material , Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Hang Seng Index, Pacific Textiles and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO
  • ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade
  • CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow
  • Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way
  • Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Dec 24 Results: ~80% Hit Rate; US$1bn+ One-Way Flows
  • HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s “Fair” Tendering Offer
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29
  • EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI Nov 25-29
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

By Arun George

  • HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)‘s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
  • The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK’s irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   
  • An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. 

ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.7bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the December rebalance.
  • We correctly forecast 4/7 and 7/7 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 3/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
  • Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 12.24bn (US$1.69bn).

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: One Change with Big Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 December.
  • Passive trackers are estimated to buy 0.9x ADV in Hwatsing Technology (688120 CH) and sell 0.5x ADV in StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)
  • The add has outperformed the delete, but not by a lot. There could be more outperformance over the next couple of weeks.

Quiddity CSI National Defense Dec 24 Results: Seven Changes; US$124mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2024 index review results for the CSI National Defense Industry Index were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
  • There will be seven changes  for the CSI National Defense Industry Index. 
  • In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance.

Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Dec 24 Results: ~80% Hit Rate; US$1bn+ One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The December 2024 index review results for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 indices were announced yesterday.
  • There will be seven changes for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index. Some of these names surprised us.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for the confirmed index changes.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s “Fair” Tendering Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Mobile (941 HK) was a logical suitor for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). A non-PRC (or government-affiliated) corporation taking over a media/broadband/telco in Hong Kong is probably a non-starter.
  • China Mobile has a made a pre-conditional voluntary Offer at HK$5.23/share, a 40.97% premium to undisturbed. The price is final. 
  • Pre-Cons are the usual suspects (NDRC, Mofcom & SASAC). The Offer itself conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle, with 24.96% in the bag. The intention is to maintain HKBN’s listing. 

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – About The Special Dividend and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • PAGD’s Special Dividend announcement made investors “unhappy”. PAGD’s operation after IPO is a big failure, which is why there were large amounts of funds left that were not used.
  • Being a “vassal” of Ping An Group won’t bring high valuation due to limited growth potential. There’s still room for stock price/valuation to decline. Investors need not rush to buy.
  • The Special Dividend will be approved. Ping An’s idea is to increase shareholding ratio by distributing dividends, which can also lower PAGD’s stock price, providing opportunity for a low-price privatization.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Nov 25-29

By John Ley

  • Put trading was heavy in the Financial sector this week. ICBC and Bank of China were the main contributors to that with 73% and 63% of their volume in Puts.
  • ANTA Sports Products had a notable pick up in Call activity this past week as the stock bounces around 3 year lows vs the Hang Seng index (graph at bottom)
  • Energy and Real Estate sectors might be the best area to look for low vol opportunities.

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly – HSI and HSCEI Nov 25-29

By John Ley

  • Price jump on Wednesday led implied vol higher but vols were otherwise soft with passing of key events in November.
  • Large jump in option activity on Wednesday was likely due to positions being closed out as open interest declined for both Puts and Calls on the week.
  • HSCEI has more support for implied vols at these levels with short term historic vols trading above 1M implied vol. 

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China – Dec 2024

By Sameer Taneja


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