Consumer

Sono International, the largest resort operator in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in 3Q 2025.
Company is aiming for valuation of about 3 trillion won. Treasury shares accounted for 35.93% of total outstanding shares at the end of 2024.
One of the noticeable aspects of the company’s income statement is that although the company’s sales growth was modest from 2019 to 2024, its operating margin growth has been spectacular.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup – Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

By Sumeet Singh

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market in 2023, with a market share of 6.8%
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Devyani Intnl.: Yum Brands India Franchisee to Acquire Cloud Kitchen Operator. In Pursuit of Growth

By Devi Subhakesan

Devyani International (DEVYANI IN) which operates QSRs such as KFC, Pizza Hut in India plans to acquire Sky Gate Hospitality Pvt. Ltd., the operator of the “Biryani By Kilo”.
This acquisition can diversify Devyani’s portfolio beyond its core quick‑service restaurant (QSR) franchises—KFC and Pizza Hut—at a time when same‑store sales growth has softened.
With the rise of off-premise dining and food delivery post pandemic, cloud kitchens are expanding across the board thanks to scalable, asset‑light model, and ability to bypass traditional dine‑in overheads.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Final and Unconditional NZ$2.80 Offer

By Small Cap Consumer Research

City Developments (CIT SP) increased its Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) offer to NZ$2.80, a 24.4% premium to its previous NZ$2.25 offer. The Board will respond by 28 April.
The offer price is final. CDL has received OIO approval and has waived all the remaining conditions. Therefore, the offer is now unconditional.
While the revised offer remains materially below the IFA valuation and NTA, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The close date for the offer remains 8 May.

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

By Joe Jasper

Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term…
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) FY24 and Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 Bottomline, Strong FY25 Guidance

By Sameer Taneja

Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) delivered FY24 revenue/profit growth of 13%/11% YoY. This was due to a turnaround of 9MFY24 revenue/profits from-10%/10% YoY, with Q4FY24 high season revenue/profits growing 19%/57% YoY.
The company is experiencing a sequential improvement in its SSSG, which is continuing into Q1 FY25. It has guided double-digit growth in revenues and profits in FY25.
Trading at 11.5x/10.2x PE for FY24/25e, with low expectations, we believe there could be a good rally post the results.

M & C Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev Blinks & Bumps

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 20th January, Millennium & Copthorne (MCK NZ), a Kiwi hotel chain, announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its controlling shareholder, made an Offer for shares not held.
City Dev offered NZ$2.25/share (not final), a 25% premium to last close. City held 75.86% and the Offer was (initially) conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held.
The independent advisor recommended shareholders NOT accept the Offer, with a fair value range of NZ$4.40-NZ$5.00/share. City Dev has blinked, and bumped terms 24.4% to NZ$2.80/share – best and final.

The Key Is to Solve the Root Problem of Women Leaving Their Jobs Due to the Bias of Family Work

By Aki Matsumoto

In many cases, women are promoted as non-statutory executive officers, and there’re very few women in positions where they can be involved in making decisions about the company’s management policies.
The bias toward women in family work, such as childbirth and child rearing, leads to women leaving workforce, and their shorter tenure has resulted in fewer women in managerial positions.
Female executives who have been appointed after overcoming various difficulties and gaining “experience” are loss to the company, as they face the wall of homogeneity of the senior male community.

BBW: Snapping the Store: Finding A Golden Egg; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $58 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
We believe the later Easter (April 20th versus March 31st last year) was a material positive for the company, driving higher sales of multiple Easter related items and allowing for Build-A-Bear to flow in more newness, leverage their Mini Beans offerings, expand the licensed products and add new “furry friends” to the mix.
As such, we believe Build-A-Bear, in a period of materially negative investor sentiment on the consumer, is poised to drive solid overall 1QFY25 results, and, with BBW trading under 9X our FY26 EPS and offering a dividend yield of over 2.5%, offer a compelling risk/reward for investors; we reiterate our Buy rating and $58 price target.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Consumer: GMO Internet, Sanrio, BYD, Dada Nexus , Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products, MGM China Holdings, Adastria Co Ltd, Shandong Fengxiang, Meituan, Continental and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing
Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound
Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm
Reviewing the Demerger Arbitrage Setup for Continental AG

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

By Ming Lu

The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing

Dada Nexus (DADA US) has filed the 13E-3 relating to the binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The 13E-3 filing provides more details on the price negotiations, required regulatory approvals and IFA valuation. Crucially, no Chinese regulatory approvals are required.
The completion conditions are low-risk. At last close and for an end-September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.4%/12.1% (including the US$0.05 ADS cancellation fee).

Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.
High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.
Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports
In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.
That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.

Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price

Based on our forecast, growth may be under pressure in 2025, but would recover in 2026/2027.The Cancellation Price is attractive for investors who want to cash out in short term.
Some long-term investors may hope to see an improvement in Fengxiang’s fundementals and long-term performance after PAG/Abu Dhabi Investment step in. Their attitude may bring uncertainties to the privatization.
The business logic of PAG is not a simple financial investment, but a higher pursuit. Fengxiang is a high-quality asset for PAG.Share Alternative Offer could help increase the success rate

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

By Gaudenz Schneider

One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.

Reviewing the Demerger Arbitrage Setup for Continental AG

By Richard Howe

Continental AG (XTRA: CON) has been high on my watch list for the past 3 months.
Why? Because Continental is going to be spinning off its auto parts business in late 2025 and it looks like the transaction will create shareholder value.
I was very close to buying the stock recently. But two things are holding me back for now

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Consumer: Zomato, Alibaba Group Holding , Chagee Holdings, Aeon Co Ltd, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold
Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth
HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks.
We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.

Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook

Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.

Aeon’s Plans to Absorb Aeon Mall and Aeon Delight Will Help Margin Growth

By Michael Causton

Aeon will turn Aeon Mall and its facilities management business, Aeon Delight, into subsidiaries.
The move is part of plans to rationalise and inject new momentum into its shopping building business, including new types of neighbourhood mall.
It will also use Aeon Mall’s overseas network to scout for promising tenants for its malls and GMS stores.

HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates

By John Ley

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
Volatility pulled back but may have simply entered a holding pattern—parallels to stimulus induced rise and fall are explored.
Volumes dropped sharply from last week’s Call induced surge, as the market approached—but failed to clear—a key strike.

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Apr 20

Daily Brief Consumer: Giant Biogene and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.20)- Giant Biogene Announced a HK$2.3bn Placement, China’s VBP Outlook

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.20)- Giant Biogene Announced a HK$2.3bn Placement, China’s VBP Outlook

With policy optimization and market adjustment, the VBP will pay more attention to the balance between quality, supply, and price. So, we think malignant price competition would be avoided.
By 2025, the VBP of biosimilar drugs will gradually cover the major categories such as monoclonal antibody, growth hormone and blood products, with an average price reduction of 30%-50%
Giant Biogene announced a HK$2.294 billion placement with Placing Price of HK$66.65/Share. Investment logic/fundamentals will change after Class III medical device is approved.Based on 2025-2027 forecast, growth will remain strong.

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Apr 19

Daily Brief Consumer: Tesla , NIFTY Index, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes.
Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

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Apr 18

Daily Brief Consumer: Chagee Holdings, Paradise Co Ltd, IFBH, SHEIN, JD.com Inc (ADR), Sligro Food Group Nv, DKSH Holdings Malaysia, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers
A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea
IFBH Pte. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One
[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)
DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations
BWMX: 1Q Preview: Showing How to Win; No Tariff Issues Here; Reiterate Buy, PT

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

By Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share.
Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with

A Visit to Inspire Integrated Resort in Incheon, South Korea

I recently visited Inspire Entertainment Resort in Yeongjeongdo, Korea with my family.
Overall, I was impressed with its modern, clean facilities, but despite its large size, there was a relative emptiness to the place that made it feel underutilized.
The management rights of Inspire Resort were transferred to Bain Capital from Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment (MGE) in February 2025.

IFBH Pte. Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

IFBH (IFBH HK) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunner for the deal is Citic.
IFBH specializes in ready-to-consume beverages and food, focusing on coconut water and plant-based products. Its flagship brand, if, introduced natural coconut water to mainland China, becoming the largest market.
As per CIC, IFBH has led mainland China’s coconut water market for five years, holding a 34% share in 2024, while dominating Hong Kong with a 60% share since 2016.

Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

By Small Cap Consumer Research

In the past week, Reuters reported that Shein has received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its IPO in London.
In February 2025, Reuters reported Shein could cut its valuation in a potential listing to around $50 billion, which would be 24% lower than the previous private market funding round.
Tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China to US are likely to result in further reduction in the valuation of Shein, much lower than $50 billion.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): IPO Valuation Highly Attractive Drawing Strong Interest on Day One

By IPO Boutique

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) priced a full-size deal of 14.7mm shares at $28.00 (high-end of the range) and Opened at $33.75 for a 20.5% gain.
The immediate IPO pipeline is primed and ready to go, however, the current uncertainty in the market due to the everchanging economic winds is forcing companies to bide their time.
Chagee was still able to achieve a desirable outcome by meeting three criteria: Large Anchor orders, Smaller Transaction, Attractive Valuation

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

By Ying Pan

We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov’t subsidies.
We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins.
We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 April (Heineken | Basic-Fit | InPost | Sligro Food Group)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Heineken | main takeaways earnings call • Basic-Fit | solid start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance – secures EUR 200m RCF • InPost | acquisition of Yodel a real opportunity • Sligro Food Group | modest revenue growth when adjusted for exceptionals

DKSH Malaysia Stable Free Cash Flow Generating Business Available at Attractive Valuations

By Punit Khanna

It has stable free cash flow generating business which involves own marketing own brands, distributing consumer and healthcare products in Malaysia
The company has double digit ROE and trades below Book Value per Share
Trades at significantly lower valuations to its parent and other Malaysian consumer stocks

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Showing How to Win; No Tariff Issues Here; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Thursday.
We believe the Betterware division has continued to drive higher sales and improved gross margin via price increases, which when combined with continued product newness and higher SKU levels, should drive another solid quarter.
We also believe JAFRA Mexico has remained a market share gainer, with a continued focus on leveraging their leading position in fragrance to drive incremental purchases in new categories.

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Apr 17

Daily Brief Consumer: Chagee Holdings, Giant Biogene, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Anta Sports Products, DKSH Holdings Malaysia, China Resources Beverage, China East Education , Ginebra San Miguel , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well
After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa
Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy
DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation
CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry
China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position
Gleanings From the Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) FY24 Annual Report
Activist Investors Will Focus Their Approach More on Whole Assets that Aren’t Being Used Effectively

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

After Squaring Away Japfa, The Santosa Family Looks To PT Japfa

By David Blennerhassett

On the 24th January, Renaldo Santosa and his family, who controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), pitched a Scheme Offer at S$0.62/share, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed.
Yesterday (15th April), disinterested shareholders overwhelmingly (in terms of shares) backed the Scheme. The last day of trading is around the 9th May, and payment around the 30th May.
The question now is whether the family now seeks to take 55.4%-held Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) private.

Anta (2020 HK): Acquired Jack Wolfskin, Still Financial Momentum, Upgrade to Buy

By Ming Lu

The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin means the brand portfolio strategy still works.
The financial potential is NOT as weak as the 2024 result looks.
We conclude an upside of 40% and a price target of HK$122 for the next twelve months.

DKSH Malaysia (DKSH MH): Stable Business Available at Attractive Valuation

By Punit Khanna

Stable and free cash flow generating business available at attractive price
Trades below book with double digit ROE and at Significant discount to its parent valuation
Priced towards low end of historical PE and P/B ( similar to COVID valuations)

CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.
At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.
The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.

China East Education (667 HK): In an Excellent Position

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China East Education (667 HK) remains well-positioned in the government’s support of vocational education, despite its YTD outperformance.
Higher average tuition per student, better cost control, accelerating growth in the “Fashion and Beauty” segment, and new course introduction are the main profit drivers.
Net cash equals 17.2% of the share price, while other peers are struggling with debt repayment. Coupled with stronger earnings CAGR, its premium PERs are justified.

Gleanings From the Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) FY24 Annual Report

By Sameer Taneja

On March 21st, we attended the PSE conference in Manila and met Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM). We will share updates from our discussion and examine the FY24 annual report.
For FY24, revenue/operating profits were up 16.5%/26% YoY, driven by 9% volume growth to 50.6 mn cases and operating margin expansion by 110 bps to 13.8%.
With a PE ratio of 11.4x, a dividend yield of 5.4% (approximately 16 pesos per share), and 16% of the market capitalization held in cash, the stock merits further investigation.

Activist Investors Will Focus Their Approach More on Whole Assets that Aren’t Being Used Effectively

By Aki Matsumoto

It’ll be interesting on whether shareholder proposals will be passed in companies with larger market capitalization and larger institutional investor ownership, which will be the main battleground for activist investors.
There are so many companies that are not creating the value they should be, it is no wonder that any company becomes a target for activist investors.
As activist funds’ AUM grows, their approach is likely to focus more on overall assets that are not being used effectively, such as cash, real estate, equities, and non-core businesses.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, Fast Retailing, LG Electronics India, Chagee Holdings, Takashimaya, The Keepers Holdings, Associated British Foods, Vector Inc, Demae-Can Co., Ltd., San Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case
Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25
Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!
Vector Inc (6058 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
San Holdings (9628 JP) – Century-Strong Enterprise Focused on Growth

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced their deal whereby Tsuruha merges with Welcia in December, and Aeon gains control of MERGECO.
Orbis Investments – owner of 9.7% of shares out – complained. I think with good reason. Tsuruha is trading a little expensive to the ratio, but there’s 7.5mos to go.
Interestingly, there’s real skew on this trade. It’s not overly complicated, and it is worthwhile thinking about it.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has increased to 10.81% which will lead to another reduction in the CPAF in September.
Even after the reduction in CPAF and an increase in BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF in September, there is a possibility of Fast Retailing being capped again in March 2026.
The continued passive selling sets up interesting trading opportunities after periods of Fast Retailing (9983 JP) outperformance versus the other index constituents.

LG Electronics India IPO: The Bear Case

LG Electronics India (123D IN)/LGEIL, a subsidiary of LG Electronics (066570 KS), aims to raise up to US$1.5 billion through a secondary offering (15% of outstanding shares).
In LG Electronics India IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on bottom-quartile revenue growth, revenue decline in the largest product category, dividends to the parent far exceeding FCF and significant share overhang.

Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.

By Devi Subhakesan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Total operating revenue for FY02/25 was JPY1.03tn, up 8.5% YoY, with operating profit at JPY57.5bn, up 25.2%.
Domestic and Overseas Department Stores, along with Finance and Contract and Design segments, drove YoY revenue and profit growth.
FY02/26 forecast anticipates revenue and profit growth, led by Domestic and Overseas Department Store segments, despite some segment challenges.

Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) Concall Highlights: Solid Q4 2024, Growth Unabated In FY25

By Sameer Taneja

The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a outlook for FY25.
For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).
Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, >20% ROE, and a 4.7% dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.

Associated British Foods: Initiation of Coverage- Automation & Labor Efficiency As A Pivotal Factor Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.
Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.
Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue reached JPY59.3bn (+0.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY8.0bn (+15.7% YoY), and net income at JPY4.2bn (-10.4% YoY).
PR and Advertising segment saw significant profit increase due to reversal of doubtful accounts provisions, despite flat revenue.
Direct Marketing business impacted by food safety concerns, resulting in lower revenue and profit, despite record high sales recovery.

Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue was JPY20.9bn, a decrease of 18.3% YoY, with operating and recurring losses both at JPY1.3bn.
Gross merchandise value was JPY84.8bn, down 13.1% YoY, with 30.4mn orders and 4.92mn active users.
GPM improved to 20.3% for 1H, with operating expenses totaling JPY12.3bn, reflecting cost optimization efforts.

San Holdings (9628 JP) – Century-Strong Enterprise Focused on Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

SAN HOLDINGS is the largest domestic pure-play End-of-Life service provider, with a network of 262 funeral halls spanning 15 prefectures in Japan.
Despite the unmistakable demographic tailwind, intensifying competition has resulted in the company accelerating its strategic growth priorities with the landmark acquisition of peer Kizuna Holdings in September 2024.
Approaching its centenary in FY3/32, the company plans to build a nationwide operation fuelled by M&A and to expand its service offering.

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Apr 15

Daily Brief Consumer: Midea Group, Chagee Holdings, TV Asahi Holdings, Anjoy Foods Group, BYD , Dongwon Industries, China Resources Beverage, General Motors, Kyberlife and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights
TV Asahi Placement – Mini Share Buyback Should Buffer Deal
Anjoy Foods (安井) A/H: Needed by Families, But Besieged by Similar Industries and Health Concerns
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book
Quiddity HK Connect Northbound Tracker (Q1 2025 Vs 5 Previous Quarters)
Dongwon F&B: Delisting and Incorporation as a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Dongwon Industries
China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release
General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?
Kyberlife lands US$3M to scale regional healthcare marketplace | e27

Midea Group (300 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry and Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group listed in September 2024 by selling 650.85m shares (including the overallotment option) and raising HK$35.7bn (US$4.6bn). A large part of the offering was allocated to cornerstone investors.
Given the large company market cap and a free float that met the inclusion threshold, Midea Group (300 HK) was added to global indices via Fast Entry.
The lock-up expiry on cornerstone investors will increase the float for the stock in the global indices and Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) over the next two months.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

TV Asahi Placement – Mini Share Buyback Should Buffer Deal

By Nicholas Tan

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$133m from selling their respective stakes in TV Asahi Holdings (9409 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Anjoy Foods (安井) A/H: Needed by Families, But Besieged by Similar Industries and Health Concerns

By Ming Lu

A typical Chinese family needs quick-frozen foods and Anjoy is the largest producer.
Fresh foods and well-done foods compete with quick frozen foods.
Customers are concerned that producers may use too much preservative.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book

By IPO Boutique

Chagee’s order book is heavily influenced from Asian Investors as the deal is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.
The underwriters and company came to market with a manageable size transaction and an attractive valuation.
The geopolitical headwinds, specifically between China and the United States, is forcing many traditional IPO investors to stay on the sidelines.

Quiddity HK Connect Northbound Tracker (Q1 2025 Vs 5 Previous Quarters)

Last August, the mainland exchanges stopped providing data on Northbound positions and trading. They decided to show the data once a quarter.
We decided to add a tool to the repertoire to show this past quarter’s flows per Northbound-eligible stock in a variety of ways.
Click on a name and get the quarterly chart of the desired metric (position, Flow (shares), Flow as % of float or shares out, etc)

Dongwon F&B: Delisting and Incorporation as a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Dongwon Industries

Dongwon Group’s decision to merge Dongwon F&B and Dongwon Industries into one company is a positive move.
Dongwon F&B will be incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dongwon Industries and will be delisted.
Post stock swap between Dongwon Industries and Dongwon F&B, the surviving entity (Dongwon Industries) is a likely candidate for KOSPI 200 inclusion in 2H 2025/2026.

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

By Sumeet Singh

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?

By Baptista Research

General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.

Kyberlife lands US$3M to scale regional healthcare marketplace | e27

By e27

The Kyberlife team Kyberlife, a Singapore-based B2B healthcare e-commerce platform, has announced closing a US$3 million investment round.
The funding was spearheaded by local VC firm 5I Ventures, with participation from East Ventures, A2D Ventures, and NUS Alumni Ventures.
The newly secured funding will fuel Kyberlife’s next phase of regional growth, focusing on several key initiatives: Expansion into Indonesia: Kyberlife aims to onboard Indonesian vendors onto its platform, offering them cross-border business growth opportunities.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Apr 14

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsuruha Holdings, PDD Holdings, Suzuki Motor, Midea Group, Chagee Holdings, Shandong Fengxiang, MercadoLibre , Adastria Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities
What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX
Midea (300 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Triggers 10% Float Increase in Global Indices for May and June
Weekly Deals Digest (13 Apr) – Suzuki, Canvest, Fengxiang, HKBN, Goldlion, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura
Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials
Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Pre-Con Offer
Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform
Weekly News & Views
Adastria: ¥500 Billion Through New Brands – Signs UK’s Karrimor

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

On Friday, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.
The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon’s stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.
But… all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain.

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to raise US$1.2bn by offloading their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor by way of a secondary offering.
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) stock is flat since the announcement of the placement but has underperformed its peers and the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX).
With the placement being less than 5% of the number of shares outstanding, there is unlikely to be any immediate passive inflow which could pressure the stock.

Midea (300 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Triggers 10% Float Increase in Global Indices for May and June

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Midea Group (300 HK) went public on HKEX on 17 September 2024 and achieved fast-entry in both global indices due to high free float and a market cap of ~$4.5bn.
The 6-month lockup on cornerstone investors expired on 17 March 2025.
The free float is forecasted to increase from ~65% to ~75% for both global indices in May and June 2025 following the lockup expiry.

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Apr) – Suzuki, Canvest, Fengxiang, HKBN, Goldlion, Tsuruha/Welcia, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) secondary offering; DN Solutions (298440 KS), Chagee Holdings (CHA US) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Canvest, Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU).

Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

By Devi Subhakesan

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
Chagee’s premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks.
Chagee’s IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG’s Pre-Con Offer

By David Blennerhassett

When Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) was suspended last month due to the Takeovers Code, I expected PAG to launch an Offer by way of a Merger by Absorption at ~HK$2.00.
And that is exactly what unfolded. The price, which is a 33.33% premium to last close is final. 42.35% of independent H-shareholders are supportive. A scrip alternative is afforded.
PAG was permitted to take control of Fengxiang, via the domestic shares, late 2022. There will be no regulatory roadblock as PAG now seeks to privatise Fengxiang.

Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform