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• On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
• For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
• On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

• The ruling party’s KOSPI 5,000 task force is now eyeing low PBR names with talk of direct penalties — a sharper shift from the prior admin’s soft-touch value-up approach.
• Low PBR penalties may bypass the Assembly, fast-tracked via KRX or enforcement rule tweaks — rollout could follow swiftly post commercial code passage, possibly within 2–3 months.
• Market’s zeroing in on low PBR, high ROE large caps — with 0.8x flagged as the penalty line, 56 KRW 1T+ names screen as potential re-rating plays.

• Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
• The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest. 
• Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

• Context: After three consecutive down weeks, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has entered oversold territory, triggering a potential upside signal in quantitative models.
• Trade Idea: With signs pointing to a short-term reversal, a Bull Call Spread strategy offers high return potential (~12x premium) with limited upfront cost. 
• Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking tactical exposure. Details Provided.

• After selling its Aussie-based logistics ops earlier this year, Singapore Post (SPOST SP) continues to divest non-core assets and businesses.
• The latest is the sale and leaseback of 10 Housing & Development Board shophouses, which could net S$50mn. 
• SPOST has declared a S$0.09/share special dividend from the Aussie sale. Shareholders will vote on the dividend at the AGM on the 23rd July.  

• Recent events have highlighted the difficulty in predicting the progression of the Iran/Israel conflict.
• Despite this, the volatility caused by these headlines has not significantly impacted market perspectives.
• The supply/demand equation remains the primary influence on market thinking regarding oil.

• Contact Energy (CEN NZ) is acquiring Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ) for NZ$1.12/share in cash and 0.583 Contact Energy shares for each share of Manawa Energy.
• Manawa Energy (MNW NZ) is expected to stop trading after the close on 7 July. There will be passive inflows for Contact Energy (CEN NZ) due to increased index shares.
• As a replacement for Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ), there will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/NZX 50 Index at the close of 7 July.

• Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
• Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
• Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• Following the results of NTT (9432 JP)‘s tender offer for NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), NTT Data will be deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).
• ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) will be added to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.
• Nearly all the NTT Data Corp shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.

• On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
• For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
• On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

• Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
• Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
• Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data’s near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.

• I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. 
• As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) – a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
• My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. 

• Mandatory treasury cancellation isn’t in the current bill, but FSC and MOJ have started internal reviews; enforcement decree could drop as early as Q4.
• An internal policy paper suggests mandatory cancellation will apply only to newly acquired treasury shares, with tight limits on existing ones to curb owner control abuse.
• Lack of retroactive cancellation weakens the bull case, and while holdco sentiment stays upbeat, momentum may fade, opening the door to a tactical pullback.

• Holcim will spin off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company, to be named Amrize on Friday, June 20th.

• The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.

• Holcim plans to spin off Amrize, distributing one Amrize share for each Holcim share held.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 9 ADDs and 7 DELs for ASX 300.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

• Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
• Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• LG CNS has been one of the hottest stocks in the Korean stocks market in the past one month (up 87%), sharply outperforming KOSPI.
• The biggest driver of LG CNS’s share price in the past month has been that this company has the potential to become a leading stablecoin platform in Korea. 
• Many investors believe that LG CNS has the expertise in blockchain/AI/cryptocurrency backend solutions to become one of the leading Won based stablecoin platforms in Korea.

• AH premia bounce back last week but the “skew” of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
• The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, “confirmed” by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX “confirmation” this past week, well, maybe wasn’t one.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

• Following the results of NTT (9432 JP)‘s tender offer for NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), NTT Data will be deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).
• ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) will be added to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.
• Nearly all the NTT Data Corp shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.

• Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
• Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
• Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data’s near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

• I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. 
• As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) – a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
• My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. 

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Santos Ltd (STO AU). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK). 

• On 26 May, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) and Dawning Information Industry (603019 CH) announced a merger in a sign of consolidation in China’s chipmaking industry.
• For each share of Dawning held, shareholders will receive 0.5525 shares of Hygon. With uncertainty on the timeline for merger completion, Dawning is trading at a 10% discount.
• On completion of the merger, passive trackers will need to buy over US$1.1bn of Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH) with nearly of that from local index trackers.

• Mandatory treasury cancellation isn’t in the current bill, but FSC and MOJ have started internal reviews; enforcement decree could drop as early as Q4.
• An internal policy paper suggests mandatory cancellation will apply only to newly acquired treasury shares, with tight limits on existing ones to curb owner control abuse.
• Lack of retroactive cancellation weakens the bull case, and while holdco sentiment stays upbeat, momentum may fade, opening the door to a tactical pullback.

• Taishin Financial (2887 TT) is cheap to peers. Shin Kong Financial (2888 TT) is cheap vs Taishin. Long Shin Kong. Long Taishin vs Peers. Long Shin Kong vs Taishin Peers.
• Abu Dhabi makes a big, bold bet on Santos Ltd (STO AU). However FIRB will have the last word on whether the deal goes through. 
• If the results show NTT owns >80% of NTT Data (9613 JP), buy a lot for a potential squeeze. If the results show NTT owns 68-70%, you can probably ignore. 

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) priced its H Share at HK$22.53 to raise HK$9,336 million (US$1.2 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
• I discussed the H Share listing in Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
• Sanhua had the highest international oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Despite the weak price momentum, the AH discount is attractive.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Sasseur REIT’s CFO, Mr. Xie Jianfeng, COO, Mr. Cheng Hsing Yuen, and Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets, Ms. Helen Qiu.

In the upcoming webinar, the Sasseur REIT team will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Garreth Elston. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 16:30 SGT.

About Sasseur REIT

Sasseur REIT is the first retail outlet mall REIT listed in Asia. Sasseur REIT offers investors
the unique opportunity to invest in the fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in China through
its initial portfolio of four quality retail outlet mall assets strategically located in fast-growing
Chinese cities such as Chongqing, Kunming and Hefei, with a combined net lettable area of
310,241 square metres.

Sasseur REIT was established with the investment strategy to invest principally, directly or
indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for
retail outlet mall purposes, as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing,
with an initial focus on Asia.

You can view their latest factsheet here.

For more information on Sasseur REIT, please visit http://www.sasseurreit.com/

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• Septeni Holdings is one of the leaders in Japan in the digital marketing business which mainly includes digital advertising, marketing support, data & AI-driven solutions.
• The company has also aggressively raised dividend payouts which is a clear sign of improving corporate governance.
• The company is also well positioned to deliver sales growth rate of about 5-7% per year in the next 2-3 years with 20%+ per year growth in operating profit.

• Following the results of NTT (9432 JP)‘s tender offer for NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), NTT Data will be deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).
• ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) will be added to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close on 3 July. The stock is up a fair bit from its lows.
• Nearly all the NTT Data Corp shares not tendered will be held by passives and there will be selling in the stock as index providers move the float lower/delete.

• Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
• Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
• Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data’s near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.

• Context: Analysis of Alibaba’s (9988 HK) implied volatility surface as of June 20, 2025, examining implied volatility patterns, skew structures, and open interest distribution across various expiry dates.
• Highlights: One-month implied volatility at 31.6% is trading at historically cheap levels (13th percentile), while the skew shows a pronounced volatility smile favoring spreads.
• Why Read: Essential for options traders and volatility strategists looking to capitalize on the historical cheapness of current implied volatility levels, particularly given the favorable skew structure for spread strategies.

• In FY25, Sysmex Corp (6869 JP) revenue rose 10% YoY to ¥509B. Operating profit margin expanded 20bps to 17.2%. Amid rising costs, favorable Fx impact of ¥8.6B drove the margin.
• Sales grew across regions as instrument installed increased and use of reagents multiplied. America’s volatile margin is a concern, amid the fact that Japan remains the major margin contributor.
• For FY26, Sysmex has guided for revenue of ¥535B (+5% YoY). The company has factored in the impact of tariff estimating annual cost of sales impact of approximately ¥3B-4B.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU).
• Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) live multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
• Highlights: Diagonal Spreads continue to enjoy popularity. Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon and exhibit a slightly bearish bias.
• Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

•  FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons  
•  Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25  
•  Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

• The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
• That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
• And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
• The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
• The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

• Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
• There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
• I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

• Insiders say Google’s fast-growing phone biz now overlaps Samsung’s, sparking serious rivalry fears. This “Google shock” has become a major topic among Samsung’s top execs lately.
• Sammy’s crisis plan involves carving out System LSI from foundry, with a likely spin-off of the foundry biz as a separate entity—insiders say that’s the favored move now.
• Samsung’s restructuring sparks a tug-of-war between shareholder value erosion and foundry re-rating. A spin-off looks likely, with recent stock moves showing investor optimism.

• Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
• Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
• We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

• Saint Bella, a luxury maternity and baby care brand, has announced the fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share for its IPO in Hong Kong.  
• The company is expected to IPO next week and initial fixed offer price implies a market cap of ~HK$3.9B. Saint Bella is set to start trading on June 26, 2025.
• Cornerstone investors have agreed to invest ~$42M in this offering. China Asset Management, JKKB and SS Morgan are among the cornerstone investors.  

• US diplomacy with Iran has been given two weeks, bringing it close to the reciprocal tariff deferral date. Both may roll later, while central bankers wait to see the impact.
• Unsurprising UK and EA inflation data offered little direction, nor did the BoE or Fed. Brazil and Norway delivered opposite surprises outside a flood of cautious statements.
• Next week is much quieter for data and decisions (TH and MX). The flash PMIs are the main global highlight, although some HICP and PCE data are notable on Friday.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
• That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
• And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

• Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
• The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
• This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

• Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
• There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
• I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
• Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
• Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
• We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

• China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK), a processor and trader of rare earth oxides/metals, is suspended for reasons unknown.  
• But not before gaining 79% month to date. On huge volume. And that gain is after giving back 23% from a recent high close.
• As discussed in Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths; although there has been some partial easing. 

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
• There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
• The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

• The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
• For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
• For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

• We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
• HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

• Chairman Yoon Dong-han, founder of the Kolmar Group, has filed a lawsuit against his eldest son, Vice Chairman Yoon Sang-hyun of Kolmar Holdings, demanding the return of Kolmar Holdings shares.
• This is a rare case of a chairman demanding his shares back from his son.
• A key question is can there be an M&A fight for Kolmar Holdings even without the father getting his shares back? And the answer would be yes.

• Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
• The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
• This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

• UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
• Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
• Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.

• STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

• To no one’s surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).  
• The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
• While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully. 

• Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited is looking to raise around US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
• Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about valuations.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
• The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
• Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

• BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
• BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
• The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.

• On 16 June 2025, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) sub NTT Docomo and Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) announced Docomo would buy out minorities in Dentsu sub Carta Holdings.
• It’s an OK price, not a great price. But while they are not calculated by advisors, at least the Target Board talks about the value of synergies to minorities.
• The price is light, but the combined irrevocables and large individual shareholders not brought over the wall get this over the line.

• In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
• Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
• Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.

• On the 26th March, ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a cash/scrip Offer from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) (ENN-NG), its largest shareholder.
• The pushback is that the scrip portion pivots off the value of newly-listed ENN-NG H-shares. And the IFA’s theoretical assessment on such leaves a lot to be desired.
• A redacted version of ENN-NG’s application proof is now out. Curiously, the share ratio – new ENN-NG H Shares for each ENN shares – is noticeably absent

• KDB just signaled they’ll offload their Hanjin KAL stake post-merger, likely in 2027—ending speculation they’d stay long-term to back Cho Won-tae.
• The 9% held by Daishin and Eugene PEs may hit the market in August, with LPs likely to cash out—Hoban grabbing it could flip the whole Hanjin KAL setup.
• If Hoban grabs the 9% PE stake in August, it could trigger a pre-2027 bidding war—possibly even a tender offer—to lock down float. This is the key near-term pivot.

• CaoCao (2643 HK)  is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
• In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
• The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.

• Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle 
• The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share. 
• Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

• There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
• The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

• A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
• With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
• Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

• AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
• This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

• Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) are scheduled to merge in less than 6 weeks. 
• The recent TWD strength has meant sharp losses for Shin Kong Life, but the merger agreement the FSC agreed has Taishin explicitly supporting Shin Kong Life. 
• There are near-term flows and technical limitations which make this situation interesting again. Grab your shorts! It could be a bumpy ride!

• There are no constituent changes for the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
• The round-trip trade is US$12.7bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Consumer Discretionary Select (XLY US).
• The largest flows are expected in Meta, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Broadcom, Live Nation Entertainment, Tesla, T Mobile Us, Exxon Mobil, Fox, Omnicom Group, TKO Group Holdings and Netflix.

• Nakano Refrigerators (6411 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Marunouchi Capital at JPY7,900, a 35.0% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
• An attractive offer and irrevocables (33.19% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 17 June to 29 July.

• There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
• The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

• The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
• There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025. 
• We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%. 

• Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
• The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

• Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
• Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
• There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

• The MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.
• Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
• There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.

• Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)  opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
• The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
• Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and  lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings. 

• A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
• With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
• Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

• Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
• Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
• Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

• Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
• The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
• Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.