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• With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
• ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
• The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

• Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
• There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
• That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
• What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
• Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 

• MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
• Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US). 
• United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).

• A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
• Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
• The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%. 
• Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. 

• Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
• If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
• Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.

• Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million. 
• In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
• The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing. 

• You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
• Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
• IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

• JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
• It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
• Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

• Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
• There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

• There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
• Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

• The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
• It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
• In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

• The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
• One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
• In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

• There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
• The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
• With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

• Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
• Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
• Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

• The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
• This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
• Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 

• On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
• As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital’s terms.
• Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.

• You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
• Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
• IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

• The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
• There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
• The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

• Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
• CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
• The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

• JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
• It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
• Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

• There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
• Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

• Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
• The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
• The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.  

• Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.  
• My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
• With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

• Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
• Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
• Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

• The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
• It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
• In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong  events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

• Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high. 
• Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
• It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved. 
• Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.

• Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
• CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
• The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

• The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
• Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
• Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

• NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

• The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
• There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
• The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

• We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
• Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
• Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.

• Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. 
• The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. 
• Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden’s derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.

• Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
• In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
• We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.

• On 21 January, there was an important legal court decision to disallow the appointment of directors using the cumulative voting system at the Korea Zinc’s EGM on 23 January.
• This legal decision is likely to favor MBK/Young Poong alliance in the control of Korea Zinc. The market increasingly favors the likelihood of MBK/Young Poong alliance winning this proxy battle.
• Therefore, the chance of a further M&A battle has been reduced which is likely to further decline in the share price of Korea Zinc. 

• There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
• Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

• Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them. 
• Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
• There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.

• With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
• ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
• The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

• Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
• But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
• Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.
• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.
• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.

• Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
• The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
• Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.

• With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.

• Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
• City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
• Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

• SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
• SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
• The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

• Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
• CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
• The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

• Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
• Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
• In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

• The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
• Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
• The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.

• With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
• ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
• The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) in late December proposed an unsolicited takeover of Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), with a 3-month delay before launching a Tender Offer. 
• Makino has asked for an extension to the start. Nidec has said no. Makino is going about this the wrong way. Makino needs to assume Nidec thought this through.
• Makino needs to open up the process to other bidders, and investors can help. 

• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.
• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.
• J&T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.

• Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
• The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
• Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.

• The issue with borrowing agreements is that contracts with conditions set later or changeable terms don’t count, creating uncertainty on how this will play out in practice.
• Many borrowing agreements depend on recall timing for ownership recognition, even within the same day, creating confusion in practice.
• Repayment period limits don’t apply to internal desk-to-desk trades within the same firm. Other than those, no new updates today on reporting requirements, T+2 reporting window, or lending limits.

• On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
• They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further. 
• This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons…

• AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
• The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
• The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.

• We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
• The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
• The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.

• Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
• City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
• Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

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• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
• The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

• A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
• The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
• With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

• Bloks Group (1850960D CH) was massively oversubscribed, traded 82% higher on Friday and closed its listing day 40% higher than the IPO price.
• Bloks Group (1850960D CH) now has a full market cap of US$2.7bn. However, lock-ups and cornerstone allocations result in a much lower free float.
• Index inclusions could take place in August and September, but the passive buying is a fraction of the number of shares that will come off lock-up expiry in early July.

• The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
• The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
• The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

• There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the March rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 3.12bn (US$426m). Passives need to trade between 0.24-0.33x ADV in the potential changes.
• There is one very close add and the final list could change depending on price performance over the next 10 trading days.

• Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.
• Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
• A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).

• Nidec Corp (6594 JP) in late December proposed an unsolicited takeover of Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), with a 3-month delay before launching a Tender Offer. 
• Makino has asked for an extension to the start. Nidec has said no. Makino is going about this the wrong way. Makino needs to assume Nidec thought this through.
• Makino needs to open up the process to other bidders, and investors can help. 

• AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
• The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
• The VERY WIDE Tech spreads bifurcated. SMIC (981) and Shanghai Fudan Microelectric (1385) both continued strongly. China Rail Signal (3969) and Flat Glass (6865) widened again.

• KEXIM ignoring this premium could be a breach of duty, making Hanwha Ocean a prime short play. With 20% of shares, past cases suggest a 5-10% pullback.
• This play’s tougher than HMM’s. Without step-ups, timing the conversion is tricky. Early redemption’s unlikely, so the focus is on when KEXIM pulls the trigger on the conversion.
• No hints from KEXIM on the CB conversion yet, so loading up aggressively could be risky. We’ll likely need to wait for a signal from KEXIM before jumping in.

• Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) continues to make steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its HK$4.90 privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK). 
• Two of the five preconditions are satisfied, and another will be satisfied by 20 January. The long stop date of 17 July provides ample time to satisfy the remaining two. 
• Although the peers have materially re-rated, the offer implies a premium compared to peer multiples. Vote risk remains low, aided by selling by a shareholder with a blocking stake. 

• The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
• The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
• The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

• You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
• Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
• IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

• Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.
• Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
• A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).

• The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
• The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
• We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.

• Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
• Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
• Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

• After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain’s A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital’s terms.  
• CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. 
• And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital’s terms, again; if not a small premium. 

• LG CNS reported a successful IPO book building results analysis. The IPO price has been finalized at 61,900 won per share (high end of the IPO price range).
• The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 114 to 1. At the IPO price of 61,900 won, the expected market cap will be 6 trillion won. 
• According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case target price of 76,383 won per share, which represents a 23% upside from the IPO price of 61,900 won.

• Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
• This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
• Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.

• Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
• The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
• CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 

• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
• The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

• A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
• The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
• With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

• Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
• In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. 
• Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

• You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
• Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
• IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

• The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
• The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
• The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

• Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.
• Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
• A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).

• Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
• Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
• There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

• CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
• Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

• Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
• The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. 
• The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.

• 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
• 2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
• The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.

• Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.
• That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company’s Advisor’s DCF Range, I expect a bump. 
• Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn’t have the shares to close. I expect they won’t unless they bump a lot. 

• Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
• It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
• And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
• Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
• The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

• The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
• I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
• Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

• A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
• The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
• With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
• In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.

• Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last. 
• Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
• At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

• Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
• In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price. 
• Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

• A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
• The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a competing non-binding proposal from Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) at A$0.70, a 4.5% premium to AVID’s A$0.67 offer. 
• The potential for a Ho Bee competing offer was discussed in AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing.
• Despite the hefty premium to the undisturbed price, the Ho Bee offer is below NTA. Therefore, there is headroom for a bidding war as an offer at NTA implies A$0.81.