Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Network International Holdings, Mobvoi, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Synopsys Inc, Take Two Interactive Software, Inc, Cisco Systems, Zoom Video Communications Inc, Confluent, Microchip Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Brookfield to Buy Network International
  • Mobvoi IPO Preview
  • NTT: Developing Industry-Specific AI Offerings as AI Becomes One of Government’s Key Focus Areas
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Breaking Out of Range; Acer/Asustek Subdued Despite PC Upgrade Potential
  • Synopsys Inc.: Acquisition of Silicon Frontline Technology & Other Drivers
  • Take-Two Interactive Software: Longer Development Timelines A Problem? – Key Drivers
  • Cisco Systems: The Lightspin Acquisition Is A Major Boost For Cloud Security – Key Drivers
  • Zoom Video Communications: Workvivo Acquisition Needed To Up The Game? – Key Drivers
  • Confluent: Upgrade To OW On Consistent Execution And A Clear Path To Profitability. PT Raised To $37
  • Microchip Technology: Analog & Data Centre Business Upside Is Strong – Key Drivers


Brookfield to Buy Network International

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Network International Holdings (NETW LN) and a Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)-led consortium agreed on a 400p/share cash offer (64% premium, 12.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA) to be implemented via a scheme of arrangement. 
  • Network is no longer grossly undervalued. The 9 June closing share price of 383p represents an 89% chance of completing the deal (based on the 245p close price). 
  • Synergies have not been quantified, but may explain why Brookfield’s consortium has been able to trump CVC. Spread is 4.25%/8.92% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 December). Long.

Mobvoi IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Mobvoi is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mobvoi is aiming to raise US$200 million to US$300 million in this IPO.
  • Given the exceptional interest in AI  related companies such as ChatGPT and NVIDIA, the current environment should be an opportune time for Mobvoi to complete its IPO. 
  • Furthermore, Mobvoi has achieved a strong growth in sales and operating profits in 2022 which is also likely to drive higher interest in this IPO.

NTT: Developing Industry-Specific AI Offerings as AI Becomes One of Government’s Key Focus Areas

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nikkei reported last week that NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) is developing a generative AI and plans to offer services to the company’s corporate clients by Next March.
  • Over the recent years, NTT has been extensively investing on AI, robotics and other data-driven products and services to boost its top line growth as its core business is saturating.
  • AI and semiconductors are two key policy areas of Japanese government for development as the country is dealing with population and other demographic changes.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Breaking Out of Range; Acer/Asustek Subdued Despite PC Upgrade Potential

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai shares have broken out to near-term highs after news flow regarding its investment agreement in Lordstown Motors.
  • PC makers Acer & Asustek’s share prices remain subdued since Nvidia results despite AI’s potential to accelerate the PC upgrade cycle.
  • TSMC’s ADR premium went even higher just today; Also, Realtek is suing Mediatek in the U.S., adding to our Long/Short watchlists.

Synopsys Inc.: Acquisition of Silicon Frontline Technology & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Synopsys delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • Despite weaker demand for semiconductors overall, Synopsys has been prioritizing research and development to emerge stronger when demand accelerates.
  • Collaborations with industry leaders like NVIDIA, TSMC, MediaTek, Renesas, and IBM Research have resulted in impressive results, showcasing the criticality of Synopsys.ai in delivering breakthrough outcomes.

Take-Two Interactive Software: Longer Development Timelines A Problem? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Take-Two Interactive Software delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • Moving forward into fiscal 2024, Take Two expects full-year net bookings from $5.45 billion to $5.55 billion, considering the challenging consumer backdrop.
  • We give Take-Two Interactive Software a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Cisco Systems: The Lightspin Acquisition Is A Major Boost For Cloud Security – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Cisco also delivered significant quarterly performance, with high revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share, reflecting their solid operating discipline.
  • We give Cisco Systems, Inc. a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Zoom Video Communications: Workvivo Acquisition Needed To Up The Game? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zoom Video delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • Total revenue was up, online revenue was up, the enterprise business grew, and online business improved meaningfully.
  • Last quarter, Zoom Video reiterated its strong positioning of AI and highlighted its expanded vision to elevate progress across its portfolio and see generative AI permeate.

Confluent: Upgrade To OW On Consistent Execution And A Clear Path To Profitability. PT Raised To $37

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Confluent (CFLT US), a high-growth data streaming vendor, will host Investor Day 2023 in New York City on June 13, 2023
  • Management will provide an update on the company’s vision and strategy. Confluent (CFLT US) shares traded up ~64% in 2023, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite, up ~27%.
  • I expect CY24 revenue to exceed $1B, driven by efficient growth at a large scale, strong growth in the cloud segment, and rapid adoption of Apache Kafka.

Microchip Technology: Analog & Data Centre Business Upside Is Strong – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Microchip Technology had a strong quarter.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin exceeded the company’s forecast by 171 basis points to an all-time high of 68.3% in the most recent quarter.
  • Additionally, the non-GAAP operating margin, which increased by 292 basis points from the same quarter last year to an all-time high of 47.65%, came in just below the high end of their forecast.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Ansell Ltd, Lutronic Corp, Nippon Shinyaku, MariMed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes
  • Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down
  • MariMed Opens First Ohio Dispensary


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) and Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.
  • One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.
  • With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.

Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 June, skin and cosmetic treatment play Lutronic Corp (085370 KS) announced a Tender Offer from Korean PE outfit Hahn & Company.
  • After acquiring 19.41% from Lutronic’s CEO at ₩ 36,700, Hahn will launch an Offer for all remaining shares at the same price. 
  • This Offer Price is a lifetime high. There is no minimum tendering condition. 

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): FY24 Guidance Falls Short of Mid-Term Target; DMD Drug Growth Slows Down

By Tina Banerjee

  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)‘s FY24 revenue guidance is 3% below mid-term target, while operating and net profits guidance are 20% and 17% below the target, respectively.  
  • Revenue growth of Viltepso is expected to decelerate to 28% in FY24 from 85% in FY23, dragged by the U.S. sales, which contributes 74% of Viltepso revenue.
  • Rival Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US) is expected to receive FDA approval for its next DMD gene therapy drug this month, leading to a new competition for Viltepso.

MariMed Opens First Ohio Dispensary

By Water Tower Research

  • MariMed opened a Thrive Wellness medical dispensary in Tiffin, Ohio. This is its first operational Ohio store, and MariMed now owns or manages 11 dispensaries in five states.
  • Tiffin is in Seneca County, which has more than 54,000 residents and is home to almost 5,000 students at Tiffin University.
  • MariMed’s dispensary is the only store in the Tiffin area. The closest competitor is 30 minutes away in Fremont, Ohio.

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Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Property, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Hailan Holdings , JD Property, DBS, HDFC Bank, Binance Coin, Intercontinental Exchange, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting
  • JD Property IPO: The Bull Case
  • DBS – Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined
  • Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks
  • Market Makers Flee Binance.US
  • JD Property Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Small Amongst Giants, and Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest
  • Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Noteworthy Success Of The Multi-Currency
  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR


Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

By Travis Lundy


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a one-way trade of A$16.6m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
  • The largest inflows are on Scentre Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Region Re, while the largest outflows are on Stockland, Mirvac Group, Dexus Property and Goodman Group.

Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

By Arun George

  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)‘s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.
  • The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.
  • The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  

JD Property IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • JD Property (JDP HK)/JDP, a leading modern infrastructure provider in Asia, has filed for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO. JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) owns a 74.96% stake.
  • JDP is the third and second largest modern infrastructure provider in Asia and China, respectively, in terms of GFA, according to JLL.
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, reducing dependence on JD Group, core business’ accelerating organic growth and improving margin.

DBS – Beware of Oil Exposures like Last Time Oil Prices Declined

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Oil is down dramatically from USD83.26 in April this year to USD67.37 now
  • DBS saw a surge in NPLs in FY16 from the oil price decline in that time
  • There appears to be some correlation between DBS and oil prices

Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Obnoxious video of bank official abusing staff for not meeting unrealistic sales targets
  • Issue is widely prevalent in the private sector financial system demonstrating poor leadership, communicational and motivational training
  • Setting aggressive sales target results in mis-selling, undermines confidence in the financial system and regulatory intervention may impact profitability.

Market Makers Flee Binance.US

By Kaiko

  • Binance.US is bleeding. One week after the SEC lawsuit, market makers and traders have fled the exchange en masse.
  • Liquidity, as measured by aggregated market depth for 17 tokens on the exchange, has fallen nearly 80% over the past week.
  • On June 4, the day before the SEC lawsuit, market depth was $34mn. Today, market depth is just $7mn.

JD Property Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Small Amongst Giants, and Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest

By Clarence Chu

  • JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes, in this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.: Noteworthy Success Of The Multi-Currency

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • Their interest rate markets also saw volume rise in the first quarter due to increased hedging activity from central bank activities and banking concerns.
  • Intercontinental Exchange also had significant volumes in its SONIA contract, up 12% from the previous year.

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, KTMG, Target Corp, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Tjx Companies, Weilong Delicious Global and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | KTMG Limited: Master of Textiles and Apparel
  • Target Corporation: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers
  • Lowe’s Companies Inc: Launch of Digital MVP Business Tools for Pros & Other Developments
  • The TJX Companies Inc.: The International Growth Story Is Just Getting Started – Key Drivers
  • Weilong Delicious Global IPO Lock-Up – Now for the Re-IPO with 10x Increase in Free Float


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | KTMG Limited: Master of Textiles and Apparel

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome KTMG Limited’s Chief Executive Officer, Damien Lim. 

In the upcoming webinar, Damien will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 20 June 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

About KTMG Limited

KTMG Limited (“KTMG” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) is an integrated textile and apparel manufacturer.

KTMG is a contract manufacturer of apparel specialising in athleisure wear, casual wear, loungewear, and pyjamas for various ages, with facilities in Malaysia and Cambodia. The Group manufactures apparel for retailers in the United Kingdom, United States, European Union, and Canada, who then sell apparel products under their own brands. The Group has a co-creation business model through which it collaborates closely with its customers during the product initiation process, thereby offering customers a one-stop value-added platform.

In 2019, KTMG expanded upstream into the knitting, dyeing, and finishing of fabric, with its very own textile manufacturing facility in Johor, Malaysia.


Target Corporation: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Target Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • Target’s focus on building trust and delivering affordable products to consumers led to three consecutive years of traffic growth, with a 0.9% increase in comparable traffic in Q1.
  • We give Target Corporation a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

Lowe’s Companies Inc: Launch of Digital MVP Business Tools for Pros & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s Companies delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • Through its MVPs Pro Rewards Program and its expanded assortment of Pro national brands, it continues to build momentum with the Pro.
  • Despite the pressures, it is seen that the comparable Pro sales are a bit positive, with broad-based strength in several categories.

The TJX Companies Inc.: The International Growth Story Is Just Getting Started – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The TJX Companies delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • TJX experienced an increase in pretax profit margin and earnings per share, surpassing last year’s figures.
  • The company’s divisional performance also showcased positive results for Marmaxx, with sales and traffic consistency across regions.

Weilong Delicious Global IPO Lock-Up – Now for the Re-IPO with 10x Increase in Free Float

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 2022.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Most Read: Allkem Ltd, Ansell Ltd, Abacus Property, Lutronic Corp, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Seino Holdings, Mason Group Holdings , Chow Tai Fook Jewellery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Three Adds; Float & Capping Changes
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes
  • Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff
  • Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer
  • Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy
  • KOSPI Index – Banks Hardly Participating
  • Mason (273 HK): Red Emerald’s Scheme
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But…


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Three Adds; Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 inclusions for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the June rebalance. Plus there are free float and capping changes.
  • One way turnover is estimated at 10.6% and will result in a one-way trade of US$66m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5 days of ADV to trade.
  • Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co, Ltd. (600497 CH) was not added to the index while ioneer Ltd (INR AU) has avoided deletion in June.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) and Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.
  • One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.
  • With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.

Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

By Travis Lundy


Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 June, skin and cosmetic treatment play Lutronic Corp (085370 KS) announced a Tender Offer from Korean PE outfit Hahn & Company.
  • After acquiring 19.41% from Lutronic’s CEO at ₩ 36,700, Hahn will launch an Offer for all remaining shares at the same price. 
  • This Offer Price is a lifetime high. There is no minimum tendering condition. 

Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term through the recovery of the core transportation business.
  • Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric’s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside, surpassing the earlier mentioned 12% gain.
  • Thus, there is high likelihood of Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s continued outperformance over Oriental Land in the medium term.

Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

By Travis Lundy

  • Three years ago, Seino Holdings (9076 JP) delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).
  • Since then, they’ve bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.
  • Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh… and there’s an 11% buyback. 

KOSPI Index – Banks Hardly Participating

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The KOSPI Index has done well in recent weeks, months, but financials are hardly participating
  • There are vast differences amongst the financial in Korea, not only large Chaebol-like banks
  • Kakaobank, one of few listed internet banks in the world, is unique with ROA expansion

Mason (273 HK): Red Emerald’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • After broker Mason Group (273 HK) was suspended pursuant to Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code on the 31 May, it has now announced a privatisation by way of Scheme at HK$0.0338/share.
  • The Offer price is only a 20.7% premium to last close, and a 12.7% premium to the three-month average closing price. It has not been declared final.
  • The Offeror is Red Emerald. Shareholders with 47.55% of shares out have given irrevocables in support of the Scheme. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But…

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
  • NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear

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Daily Brief ESG: Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks


Yet Another Instance of Toxic Work Culture in Private Sector Banks

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Obnoxious video of bank official abusing staff for not meeting unrealistic sales targets
  • Issue is widely prevalent in the private sector financial system demonstrating poor leadership, communicational and motivational training
  • Setting aggressive sales target results in mis-selling, undermines confidence in the financial system and regulatory intervention may impact profitability.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR


Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd, Sino-Ocean Service, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But… and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But…
  • Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers
  • China TMT UpdateXPEV/TESLA/Nayuki/PDD/4385.JP/ 4689.JP/4755.JP: Pre-Sales of G6, Temu Comes to Japan
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 41
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 43
  • SPAC Talk : SPACs and the AI Wave
  • Tech Talk: Cybersecurity : What’s the Latest? How Big Is It? Who Is in the Game?
  • The Cyclicality of China Healthcare – Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities
  • JD/PDD/E-Commerce Sector Report: JD May Have Better-Than-Expected Performance in 618


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But…

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
  • NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear

Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers

By William Keating

  • Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self.
  • Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset leading them to over promise and under deliver.
  • Unless you are a Google or an Amazon, designing and building your own AI processor from scratch to compete with NVIDIA is a fool’s errand.

China TMT UpdateXPEV/TESLA/Nayuki/PDD/4385.JP/ 4689.JP/4755.JP: Pre-Sales of G6, Temu Comes to Japan

By Shawn Yang

  • XPEV: XPeng begins pre-sales of G6 with starting price at RMB 225k (+)
  • Nayuki: Chabaidao finished a round of private equity financing at RMB18bn valuation
  • PDD/ 4385.JP/ 4689.JP/ 4755.JP/ AMZN.US/ Shein: Temu could soon launch in Japan (+/-/-/-/-/-)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 41

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Portfolio changes: One stock remains and 13 stocks are added 
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 116% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 60%

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 43

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 181% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 24%

SPAC Talk : SPACs and the AI Wave

By Water Tower Research

  • There are no new SPAC IPOs to report for month of June so far, nor any new IPO registrations. 
  • YTD, there have been only 15 IPO pricings, of which six came in February, and only nine new S-1 registrations have been filed thus far. 
  • The SPAC IPO pipeline stands at just 45 versus a number that peaked at 310 in September 2021.

Tech Talk: Cybersecurity : What’s the Latest? How Big Is It? Who Is in the Game?

By Water Tower Research

  • The global cybersecurity market was valued at $105 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to $266 billion by 2027, a CAGR of 8.9%.
  • The number of cyberattacks is growing at a significant rate.
  • In 2021, there were more than 6.5 billion cyberattacks worldwide.

The Cyclicality of China Healthcare – Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Policies will determine the development direction of the industry, which would then determine the profit model of companies. Companies that align with policy direction would outperform in the coming cycle.
  • The prosperity of the industry would determine the development trend of companies. For China healthcare, without a significant policy shift, it would be difficult for industry beta to emerge.
  • Domestic companies cannot achieve successful commercialization/internationalization mainly because they don’t have excellent enough products. It must be innovation that keeps companies alive and then thrive, rather than relying on policy changes.

JD/PDD/E-Commerce Sector Report: JD May Have Better-Than-Expected Performance in 618

By Shawn Yang

  • Our recent channel check suggests that JD’s YoY growth during this year’s 618 major promotion event may exceed 15%, higher than the 10% growth seen in 2022.
  • The increase in air conditioner sales due to hot weather and the boost in sales of subsidized products are expected to be the main drivers. 
  • We raise JD’s TP to US$ 32 and lower PDD’s TP to US$ 91 but have maintained JD’s SELL rating and PDD’s BUY rating.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Market Makers Flee Binance.US and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Market Makers Flee Binance.US


Market Makers Flee Binance.US

By Kaiko

  • Binance.US is bleeding. One week after the SEC lawsuit, market makers and traders have fled the exchange en masse.
  • Liquidity, as measured by aggregated market depth for 17 tokens on the exchange, has fallen nearly 80% over the past week.
  • On June 4, the day before the SEC lawsuit, market depth was $34mn. Today, market depth is just $7mn.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes
  • Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff
  • Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer
  • Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors
  • Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting
  • Brookfield to Buy Network International


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) and Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 16 June.
  • One way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$107m. Only the two deletions have more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.
  • With the passive selling between 33-50% of short interest on the deletions, there could be short covering at the close on Friday.

Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift – The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

By Travis Lundy


Lutronic (085370 KS): Hahn & Co Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 June, skin and cosmetic treatment play Lutronic Corp (085370 KS) announced a Tender Offer from Korean PE outfit Hahn & Company.
  • After acquiring 19.41% from Lutronic’s CEO at ₩ 36,700, Hahn will launch an Offer for all remaining shares at the same price. 
  • This Offer Price is a lifetime high. There is no minimum tendering condition. 

Keisei Electric: Distorted Valuation Unveils Opportunity for Activist Investors

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Surpassing the pre-COVID average of 49%, the NAV discount currently stands at 61%, implying potential 12% market-neutral returns in the short-term through the recovery of the core transportation business.
  • Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric’s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside, surpassing the earlier mentioned 12% gain.
  • Thus, there is high likelihood of Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s continued outperformance over Oriental Land in the medium term.

Seino (9076) – More Seino, Seino More. Know What I Mean? Eh Eh? Seino Goes Big on Capital Policy

By Travis Lundy

  • Three years ago, Seino Holdings (9076 JP) delivered a lot of its cash back to shareholders in a big buyback. They bought back almost 15mm shares (7.5%).
  • Since then, they’ve bought another 2.5%. In February, they changed their Dividend Policy to max(2.4% DOE, 30% payout ratio). Then they set a cap and floor on the dividend.
  • Four months later they have a new MTMP, and a new Dividend Policy. Simple. 4.0%+ DOE. Div +70% vs last year. Oh… and there’s an 11% buyback. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

By Brian Freitas


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a one-way trade of A$16.6m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
  • The largest inflows are on Scentre Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Region Re, while the largest outflows are on Stockland, Mirvac Group, Dexus Property and Goodman Group.

Hailan Holdings (2278 HK): Conditional Offer Open but Success Is Daunting

By Arun George

  • Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)‘s voluntary conditional offer from its controlling shareholder at HK$3.36 per share is open. The IFA opines that the offer is fair and reasonable.
  • The offer is subject to a 90% minimum acceptance condition – the offeror holds at least 90% of the offer shares and the disinterested shares.
  • The acceptance condition is daunting due to the high hurdle rate and the lack of a bump. The current gross spread of 5.0% equals the premium to the undisturbed price.  

Brookfield to Buy Network International

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Network International Holdings (NETW LN) and a Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)-led consortium agreed on a 400p/share cash offer (64% premium, 12.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA) to be implemented via a scheme of arrangement. 
  • Network is no longer grossly undervalued. The 9 June closing share price of 383p represents an 89% chance of completing the deal (based on the 245p close price). 
  • Synergies have not been quantified, but may explain why Brookfield’s consortium has been able to trump CVC. Spread is 4.25%/8.92% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 December). Long.

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