Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, LG CNS, Korean Air Lines and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes
  • 2024 Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February


KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes

By Sanghyun Park

  • It would be prudent to anticipate that a considerable portion of these 636 companies will indeed adjust their dividend record dates, effective from this year’s year-end dividends.
  • One notable setup gaining attention is calendar spread trading for the KOSPI 200 futures in anticipation of an upward trend in the KOSPI 200 futures market towards the year’s end.
  • This entails buying the near-month and selling the far-month, liquidating when the price difference reverts. Traders pay attention to potential far-month divergence due to the shift in dividend record dates.

2024 Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • This is our 9th “Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview” at Smartkarma.
  • This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2024.
  • These 50 IPOs in Korea are likely to represent more than 80% of all capital raised through IPOs in Korea next year.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

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Daily Brief Australia: Perpetual Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer


Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
  • Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT’s asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
  • PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property


Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Sapporo Holdings, Rakuten Group , COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • 2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism
  • Cash Generation from the Sale of Subsidiary Shares Is the Default, but the Issue Remains Postponed
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Buoyed by strong post-pandemic domestic consumption and the return of inbound visitors to Japan, Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) has been firing on all cylinders in recent quarters.
  • Business fundamentals for next year look strong, with the company positioned to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
  • Additionally, activist investor 3D Investment Partners could successfully advance their proposals to divest the Real Estate business.

Cash Generation from the Sale of Subsidiary Shares Is the Default, but the Issue Remains Postponed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • By canceling the IPO of Rakuten Securities, it is assumed that Rakuten Group wanted to generate cash on schedule even if it was 10 billion yen less than originally planned.
  • Although Rakuten Group could generate cash in the predetermined time. it remains unclear whether the company has secured a path to improve cash flow in the pending cell phone business.
  • If Rakuten Securities went to public, another parent-subsidiary listing would have been created, so the cancellation of the IPO can be evaluated as positive for the quality of the market.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A positive surprise – Q1-3 FY12/2023 results highlighted the positive demand environment for AZN’s services, with Inheritance consulting sales growing 47.1% YoY driven by new customer acquisitions.
  • The company’s aim to improve the quality of earnings is demonstrated by improvements in underlying profitability with the sales mix shifting towards Wealth Consulting, while Real Estate Solutions provides cross-selling opportunities and strong access to engage with new customers.
  • The company has revised its FY12/2023 earnings estimates and on track to book record-high earnings, and has currently maintained its FY dividend forecast of ¥41 per share.

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Daily Brief United States: Aspira Women’s Health, Culp Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test
  • Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates After 2QFY24 Positive Surprise


Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test

By Water Tower Research

  • Aspira Women’s Health announced today that it has completed the design of the EndoCheck test based on the analysis of samples received from The University of Oxford in October.
  • This data shows EndoCheck to be a high-performing blood test for localized endometriosis, including ovarian endometriosis masses known as endometrioma.
  • Endometrioma is a localized form of endometriosis that has formed an ovarian mass. It is one of the most common types of endometriosis.

Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates After 2QFY24 Positive Surprise

By Water Tower Research

  • We are revising our earnings estimates following Culp’s 2QFY24 earnings release and conference call.
  • Management’s 3QFY24 guidance suggests that our prior estimate was overly optimistic about the pace of improvement.
  • The objective of operating profitability by 4Q remains intact and achievable. We expect, and are modeling, positive net income in FY25.

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Daily Brief India: Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited, Zomato, Nesco Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Entero Healthcare Pre-IPO – Has Been Scaling up Rapidly Aided by a Flurry of Acquisitions
  • Zomato Placement – SVF’s Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong
  • Nesco: Strong Q2FY24 Earnings


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Entero Healthcare Pre-IPO – Has Been Scaling up Rapidly Aided by a Flurry of Acquisitions

By Clarence Chu

  • Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited (2294842D IN) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The IPO will consist of both a primary and secondary component.
  • Entero Healthcare Solutions (Entero) is a healthcare products distributor in India.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Zomato Placement – SVF’s Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) is looking to raise US$135m from selling its remaining stake in Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
  • Since receiving shares from Zomato’s acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares, Softbank has been busy trimming its stake in Zomato. The stake sale now will be a cleanup one.
  • Representing just 1.2 days of Zomato’s three month ADV, the deal here would be easily digested by the firm.

Nesco: Strong Q2FY24 Earnings

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nesco reported strong growth in BEC revenues led by Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter for the exhibition business. Even in YoY terms, the growth was decent at 8%.
  • Nesco IT Park revenues also jumped by 14% QoQ, suggesting that the occupancy level in Tower 3 has gone up from 82% earlier.
  • Nesco Foods business continues to grow rapidly as the new Food Court and Restaurants have seen strong traction. Revenue in Foods business has more than doubled YoY.

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Daily Brief China: Kuaishou Technology, Zhongsheng Group, NIO , Tongcheng Travel Holdings , UBTech Robotics, Yuexiu Property and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Kuaishou: A Leading Short Video Platform & Content Community in China
  • Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions
  • Nio Gears Up to Make Its Own EVs After Permit Approval, Equipment Purchases
  • Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Leaderboard: Third Time’s A Charm?
  • UBTech Robotics Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Trying to Outrun Its Cash Burn
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Kuaishou: A Leading Short Video Platform & Content Community in China

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Kuaishou Technology’s Head of Capital Market and Investor Relations, Matthew Huaxia Zhao.

In the upcoming webinar, Matthew will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Eric Wen . The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 12 December 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About Kuaishou Technology

Kuaishou is a leading content community and social platform with its mission to be the most customer-obsessed company in the world. Kuaishou has relentlessly been focusing on serving its customers and creating value for them through the continual innovation and optimization of its products and services. At Kuaishou, any user can chronicle and share their life experiences through short videos and live streams and showcase their talents. Working closely with content creators and businesses together, Kuaishou provides product and service offerings that address various user needs that arise naturally, including entertainment, online marketing services, e-commerce, online games, online knowledge-sharing, and more.


Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in March 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see only one low-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DEL.

Nio Gears Up to Make Its Own EVs After Permit Approval, Equipment Purchases

By Caixin Global

  • Electric-vehicle (EV) startup Nio Inc. looks set to begin building its cars independently, announcing plans to acquire two manufacturing assets shortly after a subsidiary was added to a government database for companies approved to produce vehicles.
  • Nio on Tuesday entered into “definitive agreements” to buy equipment and assets from two “advanced manufacturing” bases from state-owned automaker Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp. Ltd. (JAC) (600418.SH +1.67%) for approximately 3.16 billion yuan ($443 million), excluding tax, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing accompanying its third quarter results the same day.
  • JAC has been producing all of Nio’s cars on a contract basis since 2018.

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Leaderboard: Third Time’s A Charm?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the March 2024 index rebalance.
  • Based on the current numbers, our estimate shows there could be one ADD and one DEL but there are some question marks due to the past index review outcomes.

UBTech Robotics Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Trying to Outrun Its Cash Burn

By Ethan Aw

  • UBTech Robotics (1683374D HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of up to US$700m.
  • UBTech Robotics is engaged in artificial intelligence (AI)-empowered robotics in China, dedicated to the innovation of humanoid robots and development and sales of smart service robotic solutions.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: Benefit One Inc, Rakuten Bank , Pasona Group, Hygon Information Technology C, Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Denso Corp, O S Co Ltd, Perpetual Ltd, Zhongsheng Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Placement: Index Inclusion Will Absorb Some Stock
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes
  • Denso Corp Placement – Not Quite Shaping up for a Win Yet
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer
  • Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Placement: Index Inclusion Will Absorb Some Stock

By Brian Freitas

  • Rakuten Group (4755 JP) is looking to sell 25.5m shares of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) via a secondary offering at a discount of between 8.7%-12.3%.
  • The offering will raise a maximum of US$433m and Rakuten Group (4755 JP) will use the funds to reduce its interest-bearing debt by the early repayment of its bonds.
  • There will be limited passive buying at the time of settlement of the stock but there is an index inclusion coming up that will result in passives buying.

New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

China: Consolidated Flows at the Close Tomorrow

By Brian Freitas

  • Local indices in China including the CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, STAR50 Index and SSE50 Index will rebalance at the close tomorrow.
  • There are many changes for the indices and there are stocks that are adds and/or deletes from multiple indices which results in cumulative or offsetting flows.
  • We estimate turnover at the close tomorrow in China will be around US$7.5bn with big impact on a lot of stocks.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes

By Sanghyun Park

  • It would be prudent to anticipate that a considerable portion of these 636 companies will indeed adjust their dividend record dates, effective from this year’s year-end dividends.
  • One notable setup gaining attention is calendar spread trading for the KOSPI 200 futures in anticipation of an upward trend in the KOSPI 200 futures market towards the year’s end.
  • This entails buying the near-month and selling the far-month, liquidating when the price difference reverts. Traders pay attention to potential far-month divergence due to the shift in dividend record dates.

Denso Corp Placement – Not Quite Shaping up for a Win Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 28th Nov 2023, Toyota (7203 JP) announced that it would sell around 9.4% of Denso (6902 JP) in order to reduce its cross-shareholding. 
  • Since then the shares haven’t corrected by much, as compared to prior large secondary deals.
  • We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about deal dynamics, as compared to prior deals.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
  • Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT’s asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
  • PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in March 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see only one low-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DEL.

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Daily Brief ESG: Allwyn (Formerly Sazka) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Allwyn (Formerly Sazka) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Allwyn (Formerly Sazka) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Allwyn’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 
  • Allwyn (formerly Sazka) is one of the largest pan-European lottery operators, and is active in all major EU countries where lotteries have been privatised (Czech Republic, Cyprus, Austria, Greece and Italy).

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Daily Brief ECM: Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Overnight Offering at a Fat Discount and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Overnight Offering at a Fat Discount
  • Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering
  • Rakuten Bank Placement – Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic
  • Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang
  • Boss Energy Placement – Heavy Dilution and Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged
  • Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case
  • Robosense Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – ADAS Sales Strong but Profitability Remains Distant
  • Rept Battero IPO (PHIP Updates): Margin Sustainability Is Concerning
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Lock-Up – US$5.3bn Lockup Release Tomorrow, with No Liquidity
  • Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group – Unclear Profit Model, Uncertain Future Expansion, and Worrying Outlook


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Overnight Offering at a Fat Discount

By Travis Lundy

  • After the close today, Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced the sale of 25.5mm shares of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), right as the IPO lockup was reaching its expiry. Expected.
  • Pricing is 6-7 Dec (pre-Tokyo open 7 Dec), delivery 11 Dec 2023. Indicative price range is 8.5-12.5% discount for a deal of US$425mm or so.
  • In an interesting technical detail, this will take Rakuten below 50%. There is some near-term index demand, some in April, some next October. Rheos could be more overhang.

Toyota To Sell Harmonic Drive (6324 JP) Shares in Overseas Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced it would sell 4.379mm shares (4.55%) of Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) in an overseas placement. 
  • This is not so big as it is emblematic, adding to the recent news on Toyota unwinds.
  • Harmonic Drive is heavily held by foreign institutions. This is a foreigners-only deal. But it will need to be absorbed by that group too. 

Rakuten Bank Placement – Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Sep 23, it had 14.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.5tn.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and updates since our last note.

Harmonic Drive Placement – Cleanup Share Sale Will Remove the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is looking to raise US$116m from selling its entire stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP).
  • Toyota Motors has indicated over the past one-two weeks that it will be looking to sell/trim its stakes in various entities as part of its exit from its multiple cross-holdings.
  • While the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 10 days of ADV, Toyota Motors will be selling its entire stake, clearing the overhang.

Boss Energy Placement – Heavy Dilution and Doesn’t Appear Well Flagged

By Ethan Aw

  • Boss Energy (BOE AU) is looking to raise up to A$205m (US$135m) through its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to fund an acquisition and replenish working capital. 
  • The deal will be a large one to digest, at 19.7 days of three month ADV and 14% dilution.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Rept Battero IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is premarketing a US$300 million HKEx IPO, according to press reports.  
  • According to Frost & Sullivan, in 1H23, Rept was the tenth-largest lithium-ion battery manufacturer globally for annual installations for new energy applications. 
  • The bull case rests on rapid ESS revenue growth, reducing customer concentration risks, ambitious capacity expansion plans, promising margin trajectory and improving cash collection cycle. 

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – ADAS Sales Strong but Profitability Remains Distant

By Sumeet Singh

  • Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is now looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, down from US$300-400m earlier.
  • As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
  • We looked at its past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

Rept Battero IPO (PHIP Updates): Margin Sustainability Is Concerning

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH)  is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer focusing EV and ESS battery products. The company’s application for a HKEx IPO has been approved.
  • Though the company had reported strong growth in revenue over the last 3-4 years, the company has been struggling to make profits.
  • Rept Battero has started to generate GPM, however, our analysis suggests that there is very little room for GPM to improve.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO Lock-Up – US$5.3bn Lockup Release Tomorrow, with No Liquidity

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (6963 HK) (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, raised around US$850m in its HK IPO in Dec 2022. Its IPO linked lockup will expire tomorrow.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Pre-IPO Jiangxi Rimag Group – Unclear Profit Model, Uncertain Future Expansion, and Worrying Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • People think that third-party medical imaging service providers targeting the grassroots market would have considerable development potential.However, even overseas leading players haven’t formed large profit scale after decades of establishment.
  • Different types of competitors would enter this market, and the consortium formed by public hospitals in grassroots market will be the biggest game changer. Potential legal risks also worth attention.
  • The profit model is still unclear. It’s uncertain whether the anticipated sizeable scale will eventually materialise. There’s still a long way to explore the third-party imaging industry in China.

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