Daily Briefs

Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.
The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.
Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Recovery to Continue, 67% Upside

By Ming Lu

We believe the financial recovery from 1Q24 will continue in 2Q24.
We expect the operating margin will improve to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
Alibaba has an upside of 69% and the target will be HK$143 for the year end 2024. Buy.

Ferrari (RACE US) The Classic Fisher Stock Q3 2023: Stellar, No Slowdown Here

By Sameer Taneja

Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) had a stellar Q3 2023 with 23.5%/45% YoY overall revenue and profit growth, beating analyst estimates and conservatively upping guidance by 2-3%.
Despite volumes growing only 8.5% YoY, car revenues grew 26% YoY, highlighting strong trends in personalization (at 19%) and pricing, with the current order book full.
Valuations are rich at 45x/39x FY23e/24e PE, but there seems to be a clear path to 20% YoY growth at over 25% ROCEs.

Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Motors has released Q2/23-24 results that significantly outperformed expectations. Revenue grew 32% y-o-y to INR 105 k cr. Reported EBITDA surged 86% to INR 14.4 k cr, with the margin expanding 430 bps to 14.9%. Automotive FCF was INR 3.9 k cr, up INR 2.9 k cr. Jaguar Land Rover and the Commercial Vehicle segment in India recorded robust growth and profits, while Q2 was a transition quarter for the Passenger Vehicle segment.

Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) Q3 2023: Weaker Than Expected Recovery So Far

By Sameer Taneja

Recovery for Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) has been underwhelming with revenue/PAT for Q3 2023 coming in at -3% YoY/10% YoY.
We expect the high season (holiday/festivity season) of Q4 to be comparatively better as 9M2023 revenue/PAT tracks 7% YoY/14% YoY, below our 15% assumption.
We like Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) as we are paid to wait in the name. The correction post earnings place it at 15.4x/12.7x PE FY23e/24e and 6% dividend yield.

Honasa Consumer IPO Trading – Great Anchor Book, Not so Great Overall Demand. Loved by FIIs

By Sumeet Singh

Honasa Consumer (Honasa IN) raised about US$200m in its India IPO.
HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

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Nov 07

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Samsung Electronics, Descente Ltd, Samsung Sds, Amman Mineral Internasional, Tencent, HYBE , WuXi XDC Cayman , Will Semiconductor Shan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications
Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights
Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes
Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints
Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions
Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon
Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates
Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble
WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation First-Look
Will Semiconductor GDR Listing – Well Flagged and Short Interest Has Been on the Rise

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.

Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights

There seems to be no immediate requirement to close existing contracts. However, even the chairman of the Financial Services Commission was unable to offer a definitive answer.
The comprehensive investigation and prohibition of the customary naked short selling could lead to a rapid decline in overall market liquidity.
The first is the short-term view, focusing on futures backwardation, and the second is the medium to long-term perspective, examining how the overall market liquidity decline will affect market flows.

Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes

Lee family plans to sell additional 2.6 trillion won worth of Samsung Group companies as part of their fourth installment of inheritance taxes.
This inheritance tax share sale is likely to have a negative impact on Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T, Samsung SDS, and Samsung Life Insurance.
This may be just a coincidence but the regulators announced today a temporary ban on stock short selling which should help the Lee family to unload their shares.

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they’re probably low still.
Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision.

Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions

Considering year-end dividends, it appears likely that the trading timing might extend beyond this year. In the previous case, the trade execution timing was one month before the contract expired.
Short selling is prohibited. However, all four companies offer single-stock futures, which provide instruments for proactive positioning. Nevertheless, aspects to consider are likely to increase regarding trading convenience and liquidity.
The potential for inadequate liquidity might increase the discounts for these deals, potentially offering us fresh trading opportunities. We should proactively prepare trading setups that consider these contextual conditions.

Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) listed on the Main Board of the IDX in July by raising US$715m in the largest Indonesia IPO for the year.
The stock did not get Fast Entry to any of the local or global indices given the low float, but there could be multiple index inclusions in the near future.
The stock is up 3x from its IPO price and there could be supply from some of the investors that got in at the offering price.

Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.
Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.

Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble

After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE which represents 569 billion won in amount at current price.
The actual block deal amount is likely to be less than 569 billion won as there will likely be a block deal discount rate.
We would avoid this deal, mainly because we think HYBE is overvalued relative to its peers.

WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation First-Look

WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK), a leading contract research, development and manufacturing organization (CRDMO), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.
We previously discussed the IPO in WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case and WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at WuXi XDC’s potential valuation range.

Will Semiconductor GDR Listing – Well Flagged and Short Interest Has Been on the Rise

By Clarence Chu

Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH) is looking to raise US$450m in its Switzerland GDR listing. The bookrunners on the deal are UBS and JP Morgan.
In its base deal, the firm is offering 31m GDRs (1 GDR to 1 ordinary A-share) for sale, at a 5.4-17.2% discount to last close on its A-share leg.
The base deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest, representing just 3.8 days of three month ADV on its A-share leg.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Sds and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications
Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights
Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes
EQD | KOSPI 200 SHORT-SELLING BAN: Upward Push and Pullbacks
Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.

Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights

There seems to be no immediate requirement to close existing contracts. However, even the chairman of the Financial Services Commission was unable to offer a definitive answer.
The comprehensive investigation and prohibition of the customary naked short selling could lead to a rapid decline in overall market liquidity.
The first is the short-term view, focusing on futures backwardation, and the second is the medium to long-term perspective, examining how the overall market liquidity decline will affect market flows.

Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes

Lee family plans to sell additional 2.6 trillion won worth of Samsung Group companies as part of their fourth installment of inheritance taxes.
This inheritance tax share sale is likely to have a negative impact on Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T, Samsung SDS, and Samsung Life Insurance.
This may be just a coincidence but the regulators announced today a temporary ban on stock short selling which should help the Lee family to unload their shares.

EQD | KOSPI 200 SHORT-SELLING BAN: Upward Push and Pullbacks

By Nico Rosti

Banning short-selling for stocks will provide some propulsion to the KOSPI 200 INDEX but inevitably there will be pullbacks when strong resistance areas are reached.
The index is joining a wide global equities bounce, it is not recommended to go SHORT soon. There is a chance it may pullback briefly this week (buy the dip?)
Our models say the index can rise from 2 to 4 weeks, before reversing: resistance will be met at 320, 328 and (hard to reach) 349.

Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions

Considering year-end dividends, it appears likely that the trading timing might extend beyond this year. In the previous case, the trade execution timing was one month before the contract expired.
Short selling is prohibited. However, all four companies offer single-stock futures, which provide instruments for proactive positioning. Nevertheless, aspects to consider are likely to increase regarding trading convenience and liquidity.
The potential for inadequate liquidity might increase the discounts for these deals, potentially offering us fresh trading opportunities. We should proactively prepare trading setups that consider these contextual conditions.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Australia: Origin Energy, State Gas Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Nov) – Origin, Azure, Tietto, Eoflow, Hollysys, WuXi XDC, Midea, EcoPro Mat
State Gas Limited – Growth Starts with the First PJ and That’s Imminent

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Nov) – Origin, Azure, Tietto, Eoflow, Hollysys, WuXi XDC, Midea, EcoPro Mat

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS), WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK), Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Cainiao Smart Logistics Networ (1437124D HK) IPOs
Event-Driven developments – Origin Energy (ORG AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).

State Gas Limited – Growth Starts with the First PJ and That’s Imminent

State Gas Limited (ASX:GAS) is a junior energy producer and explorer with assets concentrated in the Bowen Basin, Queensland.
Having secured some $7mn in equity financing, the company is well progressed in the construction phase of the Rolleston West CNG Project (RW-CNG), with production set to commence in December.
First gas is always a critical event driver in demonstrating the commercial potential of the assets and providing a platform from which growth strategies can emanate.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief China: Chindata Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Haitong International Securities Group, Great Wall Motor, Dongfang Electric, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Chindata (CD US): Maximum Dissent Condition in Focus as Oasis Builds a Stake
A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?
Merger Arb Mondays (06 Nov) – Haitong Intl, NWS, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin, Azure, Tietto
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys
Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): We See an Opportunity
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos
China Healthcare–A Pair Trade Between China TCM (570.HK) And Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH)
Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Hopson Development

Chindata (CD US): Maximum Dissent Condition in Focus as Oasis Builds a Stake

Chindata Group (CD US)’s US$8.60 per ADS offer from Bain Capital is conditional on dissenting shareholders representing less than 12% of outstanding shares.
Oasis Management, an activist fund, recently disclosed a shareholding representing 65.9 million ordinary shares, 8.99% of outstanding shares and 1.24% of voting interest.
Precedent transactions where the dissent condition was exceeded suggest two possibilities – the offeror waives the condition or persuades sufficient shareholders to withdraw as dissenters.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Absolutely STONKING performance this past week – +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.
Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.

Merger Arb Mondays (06 Nov) – Haitong Intl, NWS, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin, Azure, Tietto

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Lithium Power.
Lowest spreads – Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Chindata Group (CD US), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Allkem.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys

This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) were the top net SOUTHBOUND inflows as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$8.515bn this past week.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): We See an Opportunity

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The collapse in share price of Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is too excessive. The concerns on margin and orders are overplayed and its latest financial result is solid.
Recurring profit surged 24.8% in 3Q23 and gross margin expanded both YoY and QoQ. For 9M23, new orders rose 19.2% to reach 98% of full-year FY22 level.
We estimate backlog at Rmb197bn, or 3x consensus FY23F revenue, and this provides excellent protection to forward earnings. Its 5.8x and 4.4x PERs are just too undervalued.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos

This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list – Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.
NORTHBOUND saw net inflow for the first time in three months. Small at RMB 557mm, but positive.

China Healthcare–A Pair Trade Between China TCM (570.HK) And Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH)

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The recovery of concentrated TCM granules business makes us optimistic about China TCM’s 2023 full-year performance growth. The resurgence of pandemic and privatization rumor always attract the attention of investors.
Pientzehuang’s 23Q3 performance was disappointing. Consumption downgrade makes the strategy of raising prices no longer effective. There is downward pressure on valuation as performance will not turn around soon.
The investment logic of rigid demand is more convincing than consumption upgrading. So, China TCM is more likely to outperform Pientzehuang. Our view is long China TCM, and short Pientzehuang.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

China Vanke
Hopson Development

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon

Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ): Potential Passive Inflows Coming Up Soon

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) listed on the Main Board of the IDX in July by raising US$715m in the largest Indonesia IPO for the year.
The stock did not get Fast Entry to any of the local or global indices given the low float, but there could be multiple index inclusions in the near future.
The stock is up 3x from its IPO price and there could be supply from some of the investors that got in at the offering price.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Japan: Descente Ltd, Wacom Co Ltd, Saizeriya and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints
Wacom (6727 JP) – Large, Short-Dated, On-Market Buyback Against Dense Register
Saizeriya (7581 JP): Best Pick For Asia/China Restaurant Space

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they’re probably low still.
Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision.

Wacom (6727 JP) – Large, Short-Dated, On-Market Buyback Against Dense Register

Wacom splits its pen-tablet business into “Branded Business” and “Technology Solutions” which is not dissimilar to simply splitting based on customer type. TS is doing well. BB is not.
But BB is doing better than it was, which means a rebound in profit this year. After Q2 there is new guidance, probably soft. And there is a BIG buyback.
The buyback is large enough to take notice, even though practically it will be smaller than the headline. And a read of the MTMP “Wacom Chapter 3” is highly recommended.

Saizeriya (7581 JP): Best Pick For Asia/China Restaurant Space

By Steve Zhou, CFA

I continue to believe that Saizeriya is the best pick for gaining exposure to Asia/China restaurant space.
Saizeriya has a very clear business strategy and focus: price. The founder Yasuhiko Shogaki made it clear that price always comes first, and everything else second.
Looking ahead, the runway for growth in China is huge. The company is currently only in 3 cities for a total of 373 stores as of end-FY23 year ending August.

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Nov 06

Most Read: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Samsung Electronics, Chindata Group, Descente Ltd, Samsung Sds, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Haitong International Securities Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications
Trading Opportunities from Korea’s Sudden Short Selling Ban & Resulting Futures Backwardation
Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights
Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes
Chindata (CD US): Maximum Dissent Condition in Focus as Oasis Builds a Stake
EQD | KOSPI 200 SHORT-SELLING BAN: Upward Push and Pullbacks
Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints
Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions
A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?
Merger Arb Mondays (06 Nov) – Haitong Intl, NWS, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin, Azure, Tietto

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.

Trading Opportunities from Korea’s Sudden Short Selling Ban & Resulting Futures Backwardation

We should consider the complete prohibition of short selling for the next six months as practically finalized.
Following the individual stock short selling ban, both position hedging and short demand will inevitably shift to the futures market, consequently inducing unavoidable immediate backwardation.
We should design a setup that not only actively seizes sell arbitrage opportunities but also effectively capitalizes on the downward price pressure stemming from spot selling.

Full Transcript of Korea FSC Briefing on Sudden Short-Selling Ban, Including Key Trading Insights

There seems to be no immediate requirement to close existing contracts. However, even the chairman of the Financial Services Commission was unable to offer a definitive answer.
The comprehensive investigation and prohibition of the customary naked short selling could lead to a rapid decline in overall market liquidity.
The first is the short-term view, focusing on futures backwardation, and the second is the medium to long-term perspective, examining how the overall market liquidity decline will affect market flows.

Lee Family to Sell 2.6 Trillion Won in Samsung Companies to Pay for Inheritance Taxes

Lee family plans to sell additional 2.6 trillion won worth of Samsung Group companies as part of their fourth installment of inheritance taxes.
This inheritance tax share sale is likely to have a negative impact on Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T, Samsung SDS, and Samsung Life Insurance.
This may be just a coincidence but the regulators announced today a temporary ban on stock short selling which should help the Lee family to unload their shares.

Chindata (CD US): Maximum Dissent Condition in Focus as Oasis Builds a Stake

Chindata Group (CD US)’s US$8.60 per ADS offer from Bain Capital is conditional on dissenting shareholders representing less than 12% of outstanding shares.
Oasis Management, an activist fund, recently disclosed a shareholding representing 65.9 million ordinary shares, 8.99% of outstanding shares and 1.24% of voting interest.
Precedent transactions where the dissent condition was exceeded suggest two possibilities – the offeror waives the condition or persuades sufficient shareholders to withdraw as dissenters.

EQD | KOSPI 200 SHORT-SELLING BAN: Upward Push and Pullbacks

By Nico Rosti

Banning short-selling for stocks will provide some propulsion to the KOSPI 200 INDEX but inevitably there will be pullbacks when strong resistance areas are reached.
The index is joining a wide global equities bounce, it is not recommended to go SHORT soon. There is a chance it may pullback briefly this week (buy the dip?)
Our models say the index can rise from 2 to 4 weeks, before reversing: resistance will be met at 320, 328 and (hard to reach) 349.

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they’re probably low still.
Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision.

Samsung Founder Family’s Pre-Announced Block Deals: Contract Terms & Fresh Contextual Conditions

Considering year-end dividends, it appears likely that the trading timing might extend beyond this year. In the previous case, the trade execution timing was one month before the contract expired.
Short selling is prohibited. However, all four companies offer single-stock futures, which provide instruments for proactive positioning. Nevertheless, aspects to consider are likely to increase regarding trading convenience and liquidity.
The potential for inadequate liquidity might increase the discounts for these deals, potentially offering us fresh trading opportunities. We should proactively prepare trading setups that consider these contextual conditions.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?