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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: China Galaxy Securities (H), Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, ICBC (H), HDFC Bank, Ingenia Communities, Funding Societies Pte Ltd, Progressive Corp, Travelers Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade
  • Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures
  • Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade
  • Ingenia Communities Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling Isn’t Particularly Well Flagged
  • SME Lender Funding Societies Nets US$27M Debt Funding
  • The Progressive Corporation: Exclusive Inside Look into Policy Lifetime Performance! – Major Drivers
  • The Travelers Companies Inc.: How They’re Changing the Insurance Landscape Amid Challenges! – Major Drivers


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.

Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Obligatory Corporate Governance Report Disclosure System will stand as the only source for furnishing trustworthy data on the proportion of listed companies that have genuinely adopted enhanced dividend procedures.
  • From a dividend strategy perspective, the companies of primary interest for strategic trading are predominantly those falling under the scope of this disclosure obligation.
  • Next year, it’s anticipated that with dependable data, we will have the means to craft dividend strategies aimed at this specific group.

Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

By Fern Wang

  • Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023
  • Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices 
  • Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. 

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) will be added to the index while there will be selling in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).

Ingenia Communities Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling Isn’t Particularly Well Flagged

By Clarence Chu

  • Sun Communities (SUI US) is looking to raise A$165m (US$106m) via selling its entire stake in Ingenia Communities (INA AU).
  • With the investor selling down its entire stake, the deal will be a large one for the firm to digest, with shares representing 32.9 days of three month ADV.
  • While short covering could potentially provide some support for share price post-deal, the selldown here doesn’t seem particularly well flagged.

SME Lender Funding Societies Nets US$27M Debt Funding

By e27

  • Southeast Asian SME digital finance platform Funding Societies (known as Modalku in Indonesia) has secured US$27 million in debt funding led by AlteriQ Global. 
  • Aument Capital Partners (ACP) and Orange Bloom also invested.
  • The funds will be channelled via the fintech startup’s tailored financing solutions to support the underserved SME segments in its five markets.

The Progressive Corporation: Exclusive Inside Look into Policy Lifetime Performance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Progressive Corporation delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • At the corporate level, these incidents have increased their combined ratio by 4.5 points, 1.7 points more than the impact catastrophe events had on their combined ratio in the first half of 2022.
  • However, there are segmentation opportunities within the new-to-renewal loss ratio performance as not all policy characteristics at new businesses have the same predicted lifetime loss ratio performance.

The Travelers Companies Inc.: How They’re Changing the Insurance Landscape Amid Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Travelers Companies, Inc. delivered a mixed set of results for the latest quarterly report, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.
  • The underlying profitability in the Business Insurance segment was particularly outstanding, with the underlying combined ratio improving by 3 points to an excellent 89.4%.
  • The Personal Insurance segment saw a 2-point improvement in the underlying combined ratio, reflecting the proactive steps to enhance profitability.

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Most Read: Newcrest Mining, JMDC , China Galaxy Securities (H), Shinko Electric Industries, Posco DX, Astra International, Fast Retailing, Nws Holdings, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Zomato and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
  • JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Results – Tough Tender, I’d Watch For “THE Block” (Maybe)
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade
  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package
  • POSCO DX (022100 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week
  • Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem
  • NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November
  • Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures
  • Zomato Lock-Up – A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release


Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

By Travis Lundy


JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Results – Tough Tender, I’d Watch For “THE Block” (Maybe)

By Travis Lundy

  • Results for the Omron Corp (6645 JP) Partial Tender Offer for JMDC (4483 JP) are out. 
  • The Pro-Ration was 51.63%, at the lower end of my initial estimate of 50-58% range, and at the higher end of my revised range (42-56%).
  • The pro-ration, the nature of the shapes (technical term) tendered, and what that suggests for Noritsu Koki’s position suggests the back end could be more squeezy than not.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.

Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package

By Travis Lundy

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has been on the block. 2nd Round Bids were apparently due last month, but with “Economic Security” considerations, one wonders if that stretches a bit.
  • The stock is now at the low end of its range vs Ibiden, and the timing is right for a deal which could give it a pop. 
  • A “split price” takeover seems reasonable as a structure. I expect upside. Still. 

POSCO DX (022100 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on Astra International (ASII IJ) and the largest sell flows on POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

By Travis Lundy

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.
  • At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.
  • If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there’d be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. 

NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November

By Arun George

  • Nws Holdings (659 HK)’s IFA opines that the conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is fair and reasonable. The offer + 2H dividend is HK$9.46 per share.
  • The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders (EGM on 2 November). The timetable is designed such that the shareholders will also receive the NWS final dividend.
  • NWD has a high but declining AGM minority participation rate. Retail forums suggest support for the transaction. On balance, we believe that this deal gets up. 

Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Obligatory Corporate Governance Report Disclosure System will stand as the only source for furnishing trustworthy data on the proportion of listed companies that have genuinely adopted enhanced dividend procedures.
  • From a dividend strategy perspective, the companies of primary interest for strategic trading are predominantly those falling under the scope of this disclosure obligation.
  • Next year, it’s anticipated that with dependable data, we will have the means to craft dividend strategies aimed at this specific group.

Zomato Lock-Up – A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Aug 2022, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.
  • Softbank then sold a part of its stake in Aug 2023, the rest of its stake will come out of lockup soon.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.

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Daily Brief Australia: Estia Health, Ingenia Communities and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Estia & Bain: 15th Nov Shareholder Vote
  • Ingenia Communities Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling Isn’t Particularly Well Flagged


Estia & Bain: 15th Nov Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 7 August, aged care provider Estia Health (EHE AU) and Bain Capital entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$3.20/share (less any dividends), a 50% premium to undisturbed
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. A shareholder meeting will be held on the 15th of November with implementation expected on the 30th of November. 
  • Estia paid a fully franked dividend of A$0.12/share on the 15th of September. Currently trading  tight to the adjusted terms of A$3.08/share. This still needs FIRB approval.

Ingenia Communities Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling Isn’t Particularly Well Flagged

By Clarence Chu

  • Sun Communities (SUI US) is looking to raise A$165m (US$106m) via selling its entire stake in Ingenia Communities (INA AU).
  • With the investor selling down its entire stake, the deal will be a large one for the firm to digest, with shares representing 32.9 days of three month ADV.
  • While short covering could potentially provide some support for share price post-deal, the selldown here doesn’t seem particularly well flagged.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, EcoPro Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures
  • Ecopro Materials: Reduces IPO Price Range
  • EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case


Korea Finally Offers Reliable Data Channel on Companies with Improved Dividend Procedures

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Obligatory Corporate Governance Report Disclosure System will stand as the only source for furnishing trustworthy data on the proportion of listed companies that have genuinely adopted enhanced dividend procedures.
  • From a dividend strategy perspective, the companies of primary interest for strategic trading are predominantly those falling under the scope of this disclosure obligation.
  • Next year, it’s anticipated that with dependable data, we will have the means to craft dividend strategies aimed at this specific group.

Ecopro Materials: Reduces IPO Price Range

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials reduced the upper end of the IPO price range from 46,000 won to 44,000 won.
  • The bankers reduced the IPO discount, EV/EBITDA valuation multiple, and outstanding shares. 
  • We maintain our Bearish view of the Ecopro Materials IPO. Our base case valuation of 37,436 won per share is towards to lower end of the IPO price range. 

EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) is a leading player in the electrode material industry. It is seeking to raise up to US$477 million in a KRX IPO.
  • In EcoPro Materials IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on weakening sector market sentiment, margin pressure likely to persist, cash burn, elevated leverage and high related-party transactions.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Astra International, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on Astra International (ASII IJ) and the largest sell flows on POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform’s new initiatives gaining traction.
  • The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.
  • New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Funding Societies Pte Ltd, Bolttech Digital Brokerage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SME Lender Funding Societies Nets US$27M Debt Funding
  • Impact Investor LeapFrog Investments Joins Bolttech Captable with a US$50M Investment


SME Lender Funding Societies Nets US$27M Debt Funding

By e27

  • Southeast Asian SME digital finance platform Funding Societies (known as Modalku in Indonesia) has secured US$27 million in debt funding led by AlteriQ Global. 
  • Aument Capital Partners (ACP) and Orange Bloom also invested.
  • The funds will be channelled via the fintech startup’s tailored financing solutions to support the underserved SME segments in its five markets.

Impact Investor LeapFrog Investments Joins Bolttech Captable with a US$50M Investment

By e27

  • Singapore-based insurtech company bolttech has raised US$50 million from impact investor LeapFrog Investments, bringing its total Series B round to US$246 million.
  • bolttech will use the new capital to grow in emerging markets and expand its technology-enabled ecosystem for protection and insurance for emerging consumers.
  • LeapFrog’s track record with tech-enabled insurance businesses in Africa and Asia will help bolttech to target its products to these growing markets.

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Daily Brief United States: Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Motors, Ringcentral Inc Class A, Plug Power Inc, Digital Turbine, Levi Strauss & Co, Sunrun Inc, Lumentum Holdings, FedEx Corp, Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Who Is Lina Khan? Why Should Investors Bother?
  • Tesla Cuts Prices of Top Models After Deliveries Fall
  • RingCentral Inc: How $330 Million ARR is Changing the UCaaS + CCaaS Game! – Major Drivers
  • Plug Power Inc.: Unveiling Powerful Partnerships Yielding Extraordinary Results! – Major Drivers
  • Digital Turbine Inc.: Partnership Expansion Alert! New Deals with Google Cloud & SADA! – Major Drivers
  • Levi Strauss & Co.: Defying Odds with Double-Digit Growth in Direct-to-Consumer Business! – Major Drivers
  • Sunrun Inc.: Rising Solar Giant With A Thriving Subscription Model! – Major Drivers
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: The Game-Changing Role of VCSELs in Tomorrow’s AI & ML Technologies! – Major Drivers
  • FedEx Corporation: Navigating Through Demand Fluctuations! – Major Drivers
  • Broadridge Financial Solutions: Unveiling Fiscal 2024 Predictions – Organic Growth & More! – Major Drivers


Who Is Lina Khan? Why Should Investors Bother?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • If you’re an investor in any firm with some form of dominance in US markets, then you need to know who Ms Lina Khan is.
  • Corporate misbehavior is a topic of her interest. She shows zero tolerance towards large corporations who wield outsized market power.
  • FTC along with 17 US states filed a lawsuit against Amazon for illegally maintaining monopoly power. How will Amazon be impacted?

Tesla Cuts Prices of Top Models After Deliveries Fall

By Caixin Global

  • Tesla Inc. will have to sell a record number of cars in the fourth quarter to reach its goal for the year after third-quarter deliveries declined.
  • The electric-car maker produced 430,488 vehicles in the third quarter, down 10% from the second, and delivered 435,059 units, down 6.7%, Tesla said Monday.
  • The drop in deliveries resulted from production stoppages at its factory in Fremont, California. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in July that production facilities would be closed at various times in the third quarter to perform plant upgrades.

RingCentral Inc: How $330 Million ARR is Changing the UCaaS + CCaaS Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • RingCentral Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The profit increase also resulted in another quarter of significant free cash flow.
  • Revenue from subscriptions increased 11% year over year to $514 million.

Plug Power Inc.: Unveiling Powerful Partnerships Yielding Extraordinary Results! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Plug Power Inc. delivered a mixed set of results for the quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • Plug’s second quarter results show significant growth in a number of its recently introduced goods, especially in its cryogenic industry, which generated $69 million in revenue in the quarter, more than a threefold increase over the same period last year.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Digital Turbine Inc.: Partnership Expansion Alert! New Deals with Google Cloud & SADA! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Digital Turbine, Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • With $146.4 million in revenue, $27 million in EBITDA, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.18, the company demonstrated significant improvement compared to the previous quarter.
  • Continuing the multi-year partnership will enhance Digital Turbine’s rate of innovation and expand its scale to a greater extent.

Levi Strauss & Co.: Defying Odds with Double-Digit Growth in Direct-to-Consumer Business! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss & Co. delivered a mixed set of results for the quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.
  • Despite facing headwinds, reported revenues remained steady compared to the previous year and decreased by 2% on a constant currency basis.
  • Their Brands segment, consisting of Dockers and Beyond Yoga, is performing impressively, generating nearly $0.5 billion in annual revenue.

Sunrun Inc.: Rising Solar Giant With A Thriving Subscription Model! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun Inc. delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below analysts’ anticipations but above-par earnings.
  • In Q2, Sunrun added more than 100 megawatt hours of storage capacity, up 35% over the same quarter last year.
  • With a net subscriber value of $12,321 in the quarter, subscriber value was roughly 44,700, and creation cost was approximately $32,400.

Lumentum Holdings Inc.: The Game-Changing Role of VCSELs in Tomorrow’s AI & ML Technologies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lumentum Holdings Inc. surpassed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Despite inventory challenges in the second half of fiscal year ’23, the company achieved a 3% increase in full-year revenue from fiscal year ’22.
  • While fiscal 2024 3D sensing revenue is projected to be lower than fiscal ’23 due to market dynamics and competition, the company achieved sequential growth in Commercial lasers revenue, driven by applications in solar cell processing.

FedEx Corporation: Navigating Through Demand Fluctuations! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • FedEx Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • The company’s transformation efforts are already reaping the rewards, notably in the Ground segment, which saw increased revenue due to higher yields and exceptional operational performance.
  • The transformative DRIVE initiative is progressing as planned, with substantial cost reductions achieved across the network.

Broadridge Financial Solutions: Unveiling Fiscal 2024 Predictions – Organic Growth & More! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadridge delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations, but managed an earnings beat.
  • The company reported an 8% growth in recurring revenue, with impressive earnings growth of 21%.
  • The company’s guidance for fiscal ’24 predicts organic recurring revenue growth of 6% to 9%, adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 12%, and an approximate 100% free cash flow conversion.

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Daily Brief India: Zomato, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato Lock-Up – A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Shui On Land, Yuexiu Property


Zomato Lock-Up – A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Aug 2022, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.
  • Softbank then sold a part of its stake in Aug 2023, the rest of its stake will come out of lockup soon.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.
  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) will be added to the index while there will be selling in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Shui On Land, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: China Galaxy Securities (H), Nws Holdings, ICBC (H), Shanghai United Imaging Health, Hygon Information Technology C, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, PDD Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade
  • NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November
  • Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: Triple Impact Possible for Hygon Info Tech (688041 CH)
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Shui On Land, Yuexiu Property
  • PDD Holdings Inc.: Breaking the Mold with Tech-Driven Farming Innovations and Skyrocketing Revenues! – Major Drivers


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
  • The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.

NWS Holding (659 HK): Offer Opens with NWD Vote on 2 November

By Arun George

  • Nws Holdings (659 HK)’s IFA opines that the conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is fair and reasonable. The offer + 2H dividend is HK$9.46 per share.
  • The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders (EGM on 2 November). The timetable is designed such that the shareholders will also receive the NWS final dividend.
  • NWD has a high but declining AGM minority participation rate. Retail forums suggest support for the transaction. On balance, we believe that this deal gets up. 

Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

By Fern Wang

  • Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023
  • Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices 
  • Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. 

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: Basket Trade Off to A Positive Start; US$2.8bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
  • A couple of baskets I suggested in my last insight have both outperformed the CSI 300 index by more than 2% in less than a month.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 23: Triple Impact Possible for Hygon Info Tech (688041 CH)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.
  • I currently expect 5 ADDs/DELETEs for the SSE 50 index 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. Some of these names are different from my previous expectations.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Shui On Land, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


PDD Holdings Inc.: Breaking the Mold with Tech-Driven Farming Innovations and Skyrocketing Revenues! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD Holdings Inc. delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the quarter.
  • The company experienced a substantial 66% year-on-year increase in revenue, signaling a growing trust in its products and services.
  • This surge in consumer confidence has led to increased demand across various product categories, a testament to the company’s continued success.

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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Fast Retailing, Shift Inc, Shimamura, Saizeriya, Suzuken Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package
  • Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem
  • High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown
  • Low Cost Apparel Sales Keep Rising: Shimamura Aims for ¥800 Billion
  • Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Japanese Company + Fast Casual Italian Food = China Growth Story?
  • Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP): Better-Than-Expected Q1FY24 Result; Full Year Guidance Reiterated


Shinko Electric (6967) – Waiting for a Package

By Travis Lundy

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has been on the block. 2nd Round Bids were apparently due last month, but with “Economic Security” considerations, one wonders if that stretches a bit.
  • The stock is now at the low end of its range vs Ibiden, and the timing is right for a deal which could give it a pop. 
  • A “split price” takeover seems reasonable as a structure. I expect upside. Still. 

Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

By Travis Lundy

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.
  • At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.
  • If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there’d be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. 

High Conviction Shift: Another Upbeat Quarter; Wipes Off Concerns Over an Earnings Slowdown

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2023 results today. 4Q revenue increased 38.2% YoY while OP more than doubled during the quarter. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates.
  • Full-Year revenues and OP increased 35.7% and 67.4% respectively beating consensus estimates by 1.2% and 67.4% respectively. Both revenue and OP were above the company’s own guidance.
  • Shift’s share price has dropped by about 17% since August as market became concerned over the growth prospects, however, share price has started to move up.

Low Cost Apparel Sales Keep Rising: Shimamura Aims for ¥800 Billion

By Michael Causton

  • Price consciousness remains high among most Japanese consumers at present, a boost to low-cost apparel retailers.
  • Shimamura, which has posted three straight years of growth But when price is the main driver, competition from the likes of Shein and Temu becomes a growing problem.
  • So even Shimamura is trying to add value through branding, collaborations and Shein-like supply chains and the outlook is promising, suggesting significant upward gains for the stock.

Saizeriya (7581 JP):  Japanese Company + Fast Casual Italian Food = China Growth Story?

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Saizeriya (7581 JP) is a Japanese restaurant chain of fast casual Italian food, with currently the majority of operating profit and growth coming from China. 
  • The Asia segment, which is primarily restaurants in China, nearly doubled operating profit in FY23 (year ending August) from pre-COVID FY19.
  • The company is trading at 27x FY24E PE, with more than 80% expected growth in operating profit in FY24. 

Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP): Better-Than-Expected Q1FY24 Result; Full Year Guidance Reiterated

By Tina Banerjee

  • Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) reported better-than-expected Q1FY24 result, due to an increase in specialty drug distribution contracts and a larger than expected contribution from products related to COVID-19.
  • In Q1FY24, revenue increased 4% to ¥573.6B, driven by 4% YoY growth in pharmaceutical distribution business, due to increased sales of new drugs such as specialty drugs and COVID-19 therapeutics.
  • The company guided for FY24 revenue of ¥2,231.9B, down 4% YoY. Operating profit is expected to decline 48% YoY to ¥17B. Net profit is guided at ¥13B, down 36% YoY.

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