Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Tuhu Car, IMAX China Holding, Shenghe Resources Holding, Perfect Medical Health, Health And Happiness (H&H), AAC Technologies Holdings, WM Motor Technology Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuhu Car IPO – Peers Have Corrected, Little to No Upside Left on the Table
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October
  • Quiddity Primer for ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance Events
  • TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights
  • IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote
  • Tuhu Car IPO: Keep the Drive
  • Perfect Medical : Previewing the H1 FY24, Soft China To Lessen Growth
  • Health And Happiness (1112 HK):  Strong Growth From Nutritional Supplements
  • Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • WM Revival Hopes Dashed as Investor Abandons $2.02 Billion Rescue


Tuhu Car IPO – Peers Have Corrected, Little to No Upside Left on the Table

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise around US$160m in its Hong Kong IPO. Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • In earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance, discussed our earnings assumptions and our thoughts on Tuhu’s valuation.
  • In this note, we discuss valuations at the final price range.

IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

By Arun George

  • IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)‘s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers IMAX Corp (IMAX US)‘s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. 

Quiddity Primer for ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance Events

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. 
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a brief look at the index selection methodology and the historical price and volume performance of ChiNext and ChiNext 50 rebalance baskets.

TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share.
  • In TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case, we highlighted the key elements of the investment case. In this note, we present our forecasts and discuss valuation.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO. 

IMAX China (1970 HK)’s Offer: 10th Oct Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 13 July, IMAX China Holding (1970 HK) announced a take-private transaction from its parent IMAX Corp (IMAX US) at HK$10/share. Terms have been declared final.
  • The price is a 9.65% premium to last close but a 39.47% premium over the closing price on the last full trading day, suggesting apparent news leakage.
  • The Scheme Doc is out and independent shareholders get to vote on the transaction on the 10th October. This vote could – should – be close. Only for the brave.

Tuhu Car IPO: Keep the Drive

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is planning to raise around US$160m in its upcoming HKEx IPO.
  • The company’s franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Tuhu Car’s business model, business segments and financials and we will discuss the company’s valuation in a follow-up insight.

Perfect Medical : Previewing the H1 FY24, Soft China To Lessen Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) will report its H1 2024 results in late November 2023. We expect slow China growth to result in revenue/profit growth of 10%/15% YoY. 
  • The company will continue to open outlets in HK, and the plan is to open ten by the end of FY24 (3-4 at the end of H1FY24e).  
  • The stock trades at 12.7x PE FY24e, with an 8.7% dividend yield and around 16% of the market capitalization in net cash and investments (~800 mn HKD). 

Health And Happiness (1112 HK):  Strong Growth From Nutritional Supplements

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Health And Happiness (H&H) (1112 HK) has transformed from an infant formula company to a nutritional supplements company.
  • The company currently trades at 5.3x 2024E PE – still valued as a Chinese infant formula company and not a growing and more global nutritional supplements company.
  • As the company continues to deliver growth in the nutritional supplements business, rerating will come eventually. 

Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


WM Revival Hopes Dashed as Investor Abandons $2.02 Billion Rescue

By Caixin Global

  • Troubled Chinese electric-vehicle startup WM Motor Holdings Ltd.’s hopes of a business turnaround were dashed as a white knight investor bailed out of a $2.02 billion takeover.
  • Hong Kong-traded Apollo Future Mobility Group Ltd. Friday dropped its planned acquisition of WM and said a related share placement plan will no longer proceed.
  • The deal, announced in January, was seen as a survival move for embattled WM as it was intended to float the EV maker in Hong Kong through a backdoor listing.

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Daily Brief United States: ARM Holdings, Instacart, Snap , Nike, EURO/US DOLLAR, Nutanix Inc, Coca Cola Co, Campbell Soup Co, Wolfspeed, Elastic NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality
  • Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Snap-on Inc: A Look at Their Strategic INDYCAR & Indianapolis Collaborations – Major Drivers
  • Company Update – NIKE INC.
  • Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – August 4, 2023
  • Nutanix Inc.: Can The GPT-In-A-Box Become A Pivotal Turning Point For The Company? – Key Drivers
  • Technical Analysis On The Coca Cola Co. – July 28, 2023
  • Campbell Soup Company: Can The Acquisition of Sovos Brands Be A Real Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Wolfspeed Inc.: Is The Recent Divestment Of RF Business A Positive Development? – Key Drivers
  • Elastic N.V.: Riding the AI Wave – A Look at Their Market Dominance – Major Drivers


ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)‘ US IPO.
  • ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).
  • We estimate the company’s operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.
  • Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. 

Snap-on Inc: A Look at Their Strategic INDYCAR & Indianapolis Collaborations – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snap-on Incorporated achieved decent growth in both sales and profitability in its most recent result.
  • Moreover, Snap-on’s success in the Tools Group highlighted its ability to innovate and cater to customer needs effectively.
  • Snap-on’s customization and profitability, particularly in low-volume production, have been a driving force behind its growth.

Company Update – NIKE INC.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • NIKE, Inc. is engaged in the designing, marketing and distributing of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories and services for sports and fitness activities.
  • The Company’s operating segments in- clude North America; Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA); Greater China; and Asia Pacific & Latin America (APLA).
  • It sells a line of equipment and accessories under the NIKE Brand name, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment and other equipment designed for sports activities. 

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – August 4, 2023

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • During the period under consideration, i.e. July 3rd – August 4th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate was moving upwards until July 17th, 2023, but thereafter it followed a downward trend.
  • However at the start of August, the Euro notched an uplift and was still trading higher than the levels in beginning of July.
  • According to Graph 1, during the first twelve trading days of the period under consideration, the pair was fluctuating along the range 1.085-1.125. 

Nutanix Inc.: Can The GPT-In-A-Box Become A Pivotal Turning Point For The Company? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nutanix Inc. managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Notably, the company outperformed all guided metrics, achieving robust ACV billings growth and quarterly revenue.
  • Additionally, the company generated significant free cash flow growth compared to the previous fiscal year.

Technical Analysis On The Coca Cola Co. – July 28, 2023

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The Coca-Cola Co. is a multinational beverage corporation focused on the production, marketing, and distribution of specialty soft drinks across approximately 200 markets.
  • With a vast network of over 35,000 Company-operated and licensed stores, it operates through three primary segments: North America, encompassing the United States and Canada; International, spanning regions like China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean; and Channel Development.
  • Both the North America and International segments include a mix of Company-operated and licensed outlets. 

Campbell Soup Company: Can The Acquisition of Sovos Brands Be A Real Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Campbell Soup Company managed to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street.
  • The fourth quarter saw a 5% increase in organic net sales, driven by inflation-induced net price realization and strong in-market performance.
  • For the full year, Campbell Soup achieved double-digit organic net sales growth of 10% and solid adjusted EBIT growth of 5%, with consumption rising by 8%, reflecting increased consumer demand and effective strategic execution.

Wolfspeed Inc.: Is The Recent Divestment Of RF Business A Positive Development? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wolfspeed Inc. delivered mixed results in the last quarter, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.
  • The company’s Mohawk Valley Fab, the largest fully-automated 200-mm silicon carbide fab, started shipping products and continues to ramp production, thus contributing revenue.
  • With customers transitioning to silicon carbide, the company continues to see growth in the traditional energy and industrial segment.

Elastic N.V.: Riding the AI Wave – A Look at Their Market Dominance – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elastic NV delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company achieved a milestone with annual contract values exceeding $100,000, demonstrating Elastic’s rising popularity as the preferred data analytics platform for real-time search use cases.
  • The second trend involved customers consolidating their operations onto the Elastic platform for multiple use cases, benefiting from Elastic’s core strengths and unmatched value proposition in search, log analytics, and security analytics.

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Daily Brief Health Care: SK Bioscience , Aurinia Pharmaceuticals , OSE Immuno and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Flu Vaccine Output Resumes; Next-Gen Typhoid Vaccine Is On Card
  • Company Update – Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics – Publication puts Tedopi back in the spotlight


SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Flu Vaccine Output Resumes; Next-Gen Typhoid Vaccine Is On Card

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) resumed flu vaccine shipment for 2023–24 flu season. The company temporarily stopped the production of flu vaccine to focus on the supply of COVID-19 vaccine.
  • In August 2023, SK Bioscience has entered joint development agreement with Australia-based privately held biotechnology company Vaxxas to develop a second-generation needle-free patch delivery of typhoid conjugate vaccine.
  • The company’s successful phase 2 clinical trial for first-in-class pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20+) in pediatric market is a step toward entry to the premium vaccine market.

Company Update – Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Our estimations for 2023 annual revenue range around $157 million and for 2024 around $205 million.
  • The com- pany’s annual revenue reached $134.03 million in 2022 compared to $45.60 million in 2021, posting an increase by 194%.
  • Aurinia’s gross profit for 2022 was $128 million, increased by 188% compared to $45 million for the corresponding period of 2021.

OSE Immunotherapeutics – Publication puts Tedopi back in the spotlight

By Edison Investment Research

OSE has announced that the results from its Phase III trial (ATALANTE-1) for Tedopi have been published in Annals of Oncology. While the study results were first presented in September 2021, the company’s share price rose sharply following the publication announcement, highlighting significant interest in the company’s lead cancer vaccine. The results from this trial were encouraging, showing a 41% reduction in the risk of death in the Tedopi arm versus standard of care (SoC) chemotherapy. After discussions with regulators (FDA and EMA), OSE is preparing for a follow-on confirmatory pivotal Phase III trial, which we expect to commence in early 2024.


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Daily Brief Financials: Kenedix Office Investment Co, EURO/US DOLLAR, Utilico Emerging Markets Ltd, EML Payments Limited, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move
  • Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – August 4, 2023
  • Utilico Emerging Markets Trust – Emerging market growth opportunities at a discount
  • EML Payments – Turning the ship around
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Softbank Group


Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move

By Travis Lundy


Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – August 4, 2023

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • During the period under consideration, i.e. July 3rd – August 4th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate was moving upwards until July 17th, 2023, but thereafter it followed a downward trend.
  • However at the start of August, the Euro notched an uplift and was still trading higher than the levels in beginning of July.
  • According to Graph 1, during the first twelve trading days of the period under consideration, the pair was fluctuating along the range 1.085-1.125. 

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust – Emerging market growth opportunities at a discount

By Edison Investment Research

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust (UEM) is managed by Charles Jillings, together with deputy portfolio managers Jacqueline Broers and Jonathan Groocock, at specialist investor ICM. Jillings is frustrated by the trust’s wide discount, which he believes does not accurately reflect UEM’s strong past performance and future growth prospects. The fund has a consistently low beta and has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the past one, three, five and 10 years due to successful stock selection. Jillings and his team are investing in the growth potential from four megatrends: energy transition, digital infra, global trade and social infra. They seek undervalued real assets with robust growth profiles, strong cash flow generation and attractive dividend yields. Since inception in 2005, UEM’s NAV has compounded at 9.3% per year.


EML Payments – Turning the ship around

By Edison Investment Research

EML Payments reported FY23 revenue and underlying EBITDA ahead of the top-end of its guidance range, benefiting from higher interest income and improvements to customer contracts in H223. The company is making good progress with its short-term priorities, and while the Barrenjoey strategic review is ongoing, management has started taking action to return loss-making activities to profitability and to reinvigorate growth in its core businesses. We have upgraded our forecasts to reflect better-than-expected performance in FY23 and identified cost savings.


Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Softbank Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: Lasertec Corp, Intage Holdings, Ninebot , T&K Toka Co Ltd, ARM Holdings, Kenedix Office Investment Co, Golden Eagle Energy, Aisin Seiki, IMAX China Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • September Nikkei 225 Review – Lasertec, Mercari, Nitori IN, Expected DELETEs Out (Matsui the Biggie)
  • NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact
  • T&K Toka (4636 JP): Possible Offer Scenarios as Dalton Ups Its Stake
  • ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality
  • ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?
  • Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move
  • Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ): Trading Wide To Terms
  • The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually
  • IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October


September Nikkei 225 Review – Lasertec, Mercari, Nitori IN, Expected DELETEs Out (Matsui the Biggie)

By Travis Lundy


NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week I wrote about NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) – (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
  • In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
  • So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.
  • One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.

T&K Toka (4636 JP): Possible Offer Scenarios as Dalton Ups Its Stake

By Arun George

  • Nippon Active Value Fund/Michael 1925/Dalton has increased their T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) shareholding from 22.23% to 23.77% of outstanding shares (22.25% to 23.79% of ownership ratio including share options).
  • T&K Toka shares have traded above Bain’s JPY1,400 pre-conditional offer, fuelling speculation of a bump. A rival proposal at least 5% above triggers the “Counter Tender Offer” clause.
  • The four possible scenarios with declining probabilities are: Bain calls Dalton’s bluff, Bain marginally bumps, Dalton launches a rival offer or Dalton rollovers its stake into a privatised T&K Toka.

ARM Holdings IPO Trading – Sold Hope, Now for Some Reality

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)‘ US IPO.
  • ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

By Arun George


Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move

By Travis Lundy


Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ): Trading Wide To Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 26 July, Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) announced an agreement to acquire a majority stake in coal miner Golden Eagle Energy (SMMT IJ) (GEE).
  • Via an S&P, GEO intends to buy a 58.7% stake in Golden Eagle from Indonesian conglomerate Rajawali Group for US$154.1mn.
  • The completion of the S&P, which is subject to Indonesia’s OJK and Geo shareholder approval, will trigger an MTO at IDR 1,255/share.

The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Group autoparts maker Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) today announced a new Medium-Term Plan. They plan to shift their business away from “entrusted” business, towards BEV, Brakes, and “Safe/Comfort Entry”
  • They aim to grow revenues 25% from 2021 to 2025 and an additional 10-20% by 2030. 
  • They also aim to improve investment and capital efficiency, and that’s where we can look at the interesting possibilities.

IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

By Arun George

  • IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)‘s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers IMAX Corp (IMAX US)‘s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. 

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Daily Brief India: AAC Technologies Holdings, INOX India Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • INOX India Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Asia Trade Book – September 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Trade Book for September 2023 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


INOX India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • INOX India Limited (INOX IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, and ICICI Securities.
  • INOX India (INOX) is a manufacturer of cryogenic equipment, with over 30 years of experience in designing, engineering, manufacturing and installation of equipment and systems for cryogenic conditions.
  • As per CRISIL, the firm was the largest exporter of cryogenic tanks from India in terms of FY22 sales.

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Daily Brief Japan: Intage Holdings, Kenedix Office Investment Co, Aisin Seiki, Ryohin Keikaku, NEC Corp, Abc Mart Inc, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations
  • Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move
  • The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually
  • Aisin (7259) | MTP Gains Traction
  • Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance
  • NEC (6701 JP): Enough for Now
  • ABC Mart Expands Lead in Footwear
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Softbank Group


NTT’s Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux – Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week I wrote about NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) – (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
  • In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
  • So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.

Kenedix J-REIT Family Merger – Still Room (And Time) To Move

By Travis Lundy


The New Aisin (7259) MTP – Selling Crossholdings, Eventually

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Group autoparts maker Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) today announced a new Medium-Term Plan. They plan to shift their business away from “entrusted” business, towards BEV, Brakes, and “Safe/Comfort Entry”
  • They aim to grow revenues 25% from 2021 to 2025 and an additional 10-20% by 2030. 
  • They also aim to improve investment and capital efficiency, and that’s where we can look at the interesting possibilities.

Aisin (7259) | MTP Gains Traction

By Mark Chadwick

  • Aisin’s stock price rose by +8% today after the company held its MTP strategy briefing
  • Aisin to restructure its business portfolio and focus on new growth areas for EV’s – eAxle, battery frames, and braking technologies
  • Aisin aims to generate ¥400b from balance sheet reform – asset sales, inventory management and sale of cross-shareholding.

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.
  • Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.
  • Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.

NEC (6701 JP): Enough for Now

By Scott Foster

  • NEC’ is up almost 90% year-to-date to 16X EPS guidance for this fiscal year and 12x targeted EPS three years out. It now looks fairly valued.
  • Profit growth is led by IT Services for the private and public sectors, with strength in finance and system integration. 
  • Social Infrastructure is growing, but in the red. Aerospace and national security are profitable, but margins are low.

ABC Mart Expands Lead in Footwear

By Michael Causton

  • Japan has a solid if stagnant footwear market, yet it only has one compelling nationwide footwear retailer.
  • ABC Mart continues to outperform its smaller rivals, with little competition as its main rivals decline further.
  • The real competition is coming from brands selling directly to customers via their own stores and online – and low-cost retailers nipping at its heels from below.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Softbank Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ESG: The First Thing Managers Should Do Is Disclose Their Cost of Capital and Their Company’s Return and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The First Thing Managers Should Do Is Disclose Their Cost of Capital and Their Company’s Return
  • Nokia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


The First Thing Managers Should Do Is Disclose Their Cost of Capital and Their Company’s Return

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While 4% of the number of companies mentioned in annual securities reports regarding P/B, half of companies have P/B of below 1x, which suggests managers still lack sense of urgency.
  • Many companies that mention P/B in their annual securities reports rely on share repurchases, and their presentation of strategies to increase cash flow is weak.
  • Clearly stating the cost of capital will lead to more appropriate ROE and ROIC targets and disclosure of specific measures to achieve them.

Nokia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Nokia’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Environmental and Social pillars. The company has a “Strong” score for the Governance pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning
  • SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month
  • China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free
  • China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-“SYNCED”/Douyin Expands Food Delivery


Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print…Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin’s AI to Revolutionize Production Planning

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: SPX +0.1% UST Yields 4.25%(down !) on hot August CPI Print; UAW plans strike strategy as no deal yet with US Big 3 autos; China vs Apple: Confused messaging.
  • JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Kishida focuses on wage hikes after cabinet reshuffle; Softbank wins on ARM – prices at $51;  Fanuc to SELL at GS.
  • JAPAN X:  Kirin (and Sapporo) Embrace AI for Demand Forecasting. We think that this trend in Japan will only increase – with positive implications for margins and profits.

SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

By Jim Handy

  • Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April
  • This growth is higher than the industry’s long-term average 3.9% growth
  • It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.

China TMT Update-JD/AAPL/1810.HK/LI/NIO/Meituan/Ctrip/Atour-New IPhones in China;Thailand Visa-Free

By Shawn Yang

  • JD/ AAPL/ 1810.HK: Apple launches new iPhones in China (-/-/+)
  • LI/NIO:Huawei AITO New M7 was launched today, limiting impact on LI auto(-)
  • Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: Thailand announced to implement a 5-months visa-free policy for Chinese tourists(+/+/-)

China TMT Update-700.HK/3690/2352.CH/DADA/APPL/UBI/NTES-“SYNCED”/Douyin Expands Food Delivery

By Shawn Yang

  • (-) Tencent’s new game “SYNCED” has yielded mediocre results, leaving players disappointed.
  • 3690.HK/002352.SH/DADA: Douyin expands food delivery service cities and introduces regional agents (-/+/+)
  • APPL/UBI.PA/CCOEY/HK700/NTES: The photorealistic rendering technology of the A17 Pro biochip could potentially usher smartphone gaming into the next generation. (+)

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Daily Brief ECM: Shulan Health Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shulan Health Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • 4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case
  • Contec IPO Preview
  • Seibu Giken Pre-IPO – Rapid Growth Followed by Rapid Deceleration
  • Pre-IPO Neusoft Xikang (PHIP Updates) – Business Expansion and Profitability Remain in Doubt


Shulan Health Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Shulan Health Management (1807987D CH) is looking to raise around US$150m in its Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, and Citic Securities.
  • Shulan Health Management (SHM) is a technology-driven healthcare group in China that integrates healthcare services and medical research and education.
  • The firm owned and operated three private general hospitals and provided hospital management services to 14 partner hospitals in China as of March 31, 2023.

4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.
  • In 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. 

Contec IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Contec is getting ready to complete an IPO on the KOSDAQ exchange in October 2023. The IPO price range is from 20,300 won to 22,500 won. 
  • According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected IPO market cap is from 292 billion won to 324 billion won.
  • Contec was spun off from Korea Aerospace Research Institute and offers Space Ground Station Services and Satellite Image Processing & Application Services.

Seibu Giken Pre-IPO – Rapid Growth Followed by Rapid Deceleration

By Sumeet Singh

  • Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) is looking to raise around US$120m in its Japan IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Pre-IPO Neusoft Xikang (PHIP Updates) – Business Expansion and Profitability Remain in Doubt

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Either from business model or investment logic, the key is to increase the revenue proportion of cloud hospital platform services. However, many restrictions have led to difficulties in nationwide expansion.
  • Overreliance on government projects and public hospitals makes it difficult to generate high profits. Xikang may continue to suffer loss in the future, and its profitability is worrying. 
  • Based on our analysis, it could be difficult for Xikang to achieve good valuation performance in the future. we think its valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr.

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