Daily Briefs

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents.
There were three ADDs – Pop Mart (9992 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) were expected. China Telecom (H) (728 HK) was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.
It’s not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity expected 1 ADD (Pop Mart (9992 HK)) and 1 DEL (J&T Global Express (1519 HK)) and those names were announced as the sole ADD/DEL pair.
HSCEI sees some capping and re-capping flows but because it has relatively low tracking AUM, the total flows here are limited to about US$400mm.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation presented its financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating robust growth and a favorable outlook.
The company’s sales increased by 12% year-over-year, reaching $877 million, with an organic growth rate of 9%.
A significant portion of this sales growth originated from the Naval and Power segment and Defense Electronics, contributing to a 20% rise in operating income and a 130 basis point expansion in operating margins.

Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

Watts Water Technologies reported strong second-quarter results, reflecting robust execution amidst challenges, with record highs in sales, operating income, and earnings per share.
The company saw an organic sales increase of 6%, driven by favorable pricing and demand, despite ongoing European market weaknesses.
This outcome was further supported by contributions from recent acquisitions and positive foreign exchange rates.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Macro: Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question
A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1
DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question

By Cam Hui

How should investors judge Trumponomics? The question isn’t whether tariffs or anti-immigration policies should be imposed, but to judge their long run effects on growth, inflation and productivity.
While it’s too early to render a full judgment of Trumponomics and his policies, it may be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain.
The preliminary report card is mostly a case of pain and not gain.

A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1

By Rikki Malik

Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends

DeFi, On-Chain Truth, and the Petrodollar 2.0

By William Mann

Founder of the DeFi Report and Web3 Strategist, NATO, shares his journey, advice for innovators, and trends shaping asset tokenization, venture capital, and AI convergence.
Inflation report and Fed’s monetary policy decision discussed, with core inflation increasing 3.1% year over year and market pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut in September.
Summary of market performance, with crude falling, value rally in US equities, and Ray Dalio’s recommendation to invest in non US equities in local currency.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

By Sameer Taneja

This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price.
With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton.
Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Financials: Scentre Group, Ethereum, Jones Lang Lasalle and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)
Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens
Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Initiation Of Coverage- Expanding Global Real Estate Dominance With Bold Growth Across U.S. & Asia Pacific!

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights:Stockland (SGP AU) rallied 7.0% on 20 August after reporting results, creating a gap between the two stocks. Scentre Group (SCG AU) is set to report on 26 August,
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tokenized Real-World Assets (Part 1): Landscape & Value Chain

By Animoca Brands Research

The on-chain real-world asset (RWA) market (ex-stablecoins) has grown to an estimated $24.8B (+57.9% YTD), validated by the presence of institutional giants like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo.
Despite this surge, the current market is a small fraction of the $400T+ estimated “blue-sky” addressable TradFi market, highlighting a significant runway for growth.
The on-chain market is currently dominated by two asset classes that offer utility.

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Initiation Of Coverage- Expanding Global Real Estate Dominance With Bold Growth Across U.S. & Asia Pacific!

Jones Lang LaSalle, Inc. (JLL) demonstrated a strong performance in its second-quarter 2025 results, reflecting significant progress in both resilient and transactional business lines.
The company achieved a 10% increase in consolidated revenue, a 17% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and a 29% rise in adjusted EPS.
Despite challenges in the broader geopolitical and policy climate, these results underscore JLL’s capacity for sustainable organic growth.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, CaoCao, Dongfeng Motor, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Great Wall Motor, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery, Smart Share Global, Duolingo, New York Times Co A, Planet Fitness Inc Cl A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……
Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks
Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math
The New York Times: Expansion of Digital Subscriptions to Support Longer-Term Growth Targets!
Planet Fitness: Leveraging Younger Demographics to Drive Sustained Membership Growth

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

By Arun George

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs Into Tech Realised,

By Special Situation Investments

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying much more limited. Big ETF buying turned into ETF selling and tech buying, as suggested.
Last week’s reco Tencent (700 HK) was the top net buy in SOUTHBOUND this past week, up 2.2%, outperforming major HK benchmarks.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): 1H25 Is Fine, but Still……

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)‘s 1H25 results are healthy, but there are challenges, including weak revenue growth and higher R&D costs.
Growth is almost entirely driven by online sales, but its plan to expand offline stores rapidly may erode net profit in the near term.
The stock has become the most expensive one in the sector, based on its PERs of 22.4x CY25F and 21.4x CY26F. Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 6.8% is uninspiring.

Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks

Smart Share Global’s management consortium offered $1.25/ADS, with Hillhouse’s competing bid at $1.77/ADS, a 33% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s trial delayed to September 22, with Harvest Lane trimming its stake; spread to Cosette’s offer is 47%.
Gore Street Energy Storage faced significant shareholder dissent; RM Funds calls for Chairman’s resignation amid strategic review efforts.

Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math

Duolingo’s second-quarter 2025 results illustrate a company in a robust growth phase, marked by strong financial performance and promising strategic developments, balanced with some areas requiring further attention.
On the positive side, Duolingo continues to show impressive financial strength with record profitability and solid top-line growth across all subscription tiers.
This performance has enabled the company to once again raise its full-year guidance, highlighting confidence in its ongoing strategy.

The New York Times: Expansion of Digital Subscriptions to Support Longer-Term Growth Targets!

The New York Times Company’s second quarter 2025 earnings report highlights several key outcomes and strategic directions for the renowned media organization, providing both positive aspects and challenges to consider for potential investors.
The company reported solid revenue growth, with total revenues increasing by nearly 10% year-over-year.
Digital subscription revenues were a major contributor, growing by over 15% and driving the total subscription revenue up by approximately 10% to $481 million.

Planet Fitness: Leveraging Younger Demographics to Drive Sustained Membership Growth

Planet Fitness recently reported its quarterly earnings, and the company showcased a blend of optimism and strategic re-evaluations, set against a backdrop of strong growth metrics and a roadmap for future expansion.
During the quarter, Planet Fitness opened 23 new clubs, taking its global presence to 2,762 locations and 20.8 million members.
The company experienced an 8.2% systemwide same club sales growth, driven by both rate and membership growth, which highlights their successful expansion strategies and appeal to new demographics, especially Gen Z.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Health Care: Max Healthcare Institute, Mayne Pharma, Shanghai Conant Optical, Consun Pharmaceutical, Daiichi Sankyo, Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Jiangxi Rimag Group, Vivos Therapeutics , Exact Sciences and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSHKBIO Review Announced; 21 DELs, 1 ADD on Methodology Shift
ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out
Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook
Rimag Group (2522 HK): Placement Seem Conducive Given The Prospects
Vivos Therapeutics, Inc: From Strategic Pivot to Business Model Pivot
Exact Sciences Reinforces Its Market Edge With Strategic Alliances & Profit Growth!

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura

By Arun George

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Healthcare Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 73 constituents.
Team Quiddity had expected 6 ADDs+1 DEL. We got 10 ADDs and 4 DELs. Our 7 names were correct and the other three DELs were our next three choices.
This is a smallish index, so we see US$300+mm to trade but there are a couple of big buys in terms of ADV.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSHKBIO Review Announced; 21 DELs, 1 ADD on Methodology Shift

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng HK-Listed Biotech Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
July saw an announcement of a methodology change, and we expected 20 DELs. In fact, there were 21 DELs and 1 ADD and we missed the last two.
HSHKBIO has relatively low tracking AUM, so the total flows here (for HSHKBIO only) should be limited to about US$400mm.

ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there was a lack of fireworks from last week’s listing. This week might have some better luck.
On the placements front, there was no dearth of deals with raisings across the region.

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) – Thoughts on the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Since the privatization of Henlius failed at the beginning of 2025, we have witnessed its stock price constantly hitting new highs.The market has recognized Henlius’ strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
Based on conservative forecast, the peak sales of important products + other promising candidates/indication expansion/drug combination/new licensing cooperation, etc., total revenue of Henlius is expected to reach RMB10 billion.
RMB30 billion is the valuation bottom line for Henlius. The upper limit of valuation may reach RMB36-45 billion in the future. Exercise Price of the Options granted is HK$50.25/share.

Rimag Group (2522 HK): Placement Seem Conducive Given The Prospects

By Tina Banerjee

Jiangxi Rimag Group (2522 HK) is placing 35M shares for subscription at HK$16.76 per share.
The company intends to use the net proceeds to further strengthen their data service capabilities using AI, business expansion through independent investments or acquisitions, and general corporate purpose.
In the medium to long term the company is well-positioned for sustainable growth with its relentless pursuit for new investments, collaborations, and acquisitions.

Vivos Therapeutics, Inc: From Strategic Pivot to Business Model Pivot

By Water Tower Research

Attention turns to business model pivot. Following the completion of the SCN acquisition on June 9, 2025, Vivos’ attention is now firmly on transitioning the company’s legacy B2B business model to a potentially far more growth-oriented and lucrative patient-centric, vertically integrated model for its disruptive OSA (obstructive sleep apnea) platform.
Out with the old. Vivos’ legacy business has been centered around revenues from VIP (Vivos Integrated Practice) enrollment primarily targeting dental providers and mostly generated from one-time enrollment fees granting access to clinical training and product sales from those same trained VIPs.
After enrolling dental providers, Vivos would essentially wholesale its proprietary oral appliances to enrolled providers who would typically pick up most of the profit by selling the appliances to patients at substantially marked up prices.

Exact Sciences Reinforces Its Market Edge With Strategic Alliances & Profit Growth!

Exact Sciences Corporation reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025.
The company delivered strong performance metrics and revised its financial guidance upward, reflecting solid growth across its operations.
Exact Sciences processed a record 1.3 million test results during the quarter, which contributed to a 16% yearover-year increase in core revenue.

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Aug 24

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Genesis Minerals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.

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Aug 24

Daily Brief Thailand: Krungthai Card and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

By David Blennerhassett

Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.
Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.
Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears “cheap” to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over

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Aug 24

Daily Brief South Korea: HMM Co., Ltd., KT&G Corporation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender
KT&G: Increasing Probability of a Cigarette Price Hike in the Next 6-12 Months

Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

By Sanghyun Park

Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.
Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.
KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.

KT&G: Increasing Probability of a Cigarette Price Hike in the Next 6-12 Months

By Douglas Kim

A cigarette price hike has been long overdue in Korea. The last time there was cigarette price hike in Korea was more than 10 years ago.
We believe that the Korean government could raise cigarette prices to about 7,000 won to 8,000 won per pack from current price of 4,500 won in the next 6-12 months.
Raising cigarette prices could improve the sharp shortfall in government tax revenues.

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Aug 24

Daily Brief China: Dongfeng Motor, Horizon Robotics, Alibaba, Pop Mart, Ascletis Pharma Inc, BeOne, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Saint Bella and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion
China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement
BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)
Saint Bella: H1’25 Earnings Review – Clear Visibility on Strong Growth and Improving Profitability

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Volatility cones chart implied volatility against historical percentiles across the term structure, providing a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
Highlight: Several high-profile HK stocks currently show historically cheap implied volatility. With some of them trading near 52-week highs, now may be an opportune time to hedge.
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.
Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The 25H1 results of JD Health beat expectations. Due to the strong financial position/positive growth outlook, reasonable valuation of JD Health is P/S of 3 to 4x.
Ascletis announced Share Placing.If ASC30’s Phase IIa data remain excellent, potential BD/licensing deal would drive valuation to HK$25bn. However, if clinical data is disappointing, valuation may fall below HK$12 billion.
Reasonable valuation of Hansoh is about RMB108-111 billion. So, the Placing Price of HK$36.30 per Placing Share is expensive. We think the valuation of Hansoh should be lower than BeiGene.

BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers