Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 16
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Absent Borrow and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
  • ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
  • New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
  • Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
  • Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report
  • Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US) has entered into a definitive merger agreement with Geely Auto (175 HK) at US$26.87 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares. The cash offer increased by 4.7%. 
  • The proposal is conditional on regulatory approvals (low risk, as Zeekr is a subsidiary of Geely), as well as approval from Zeekr’s shareholders and Geely’s independent shareholders.  
  • The Zeekr shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and undertakings exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The Geely vote is low risk due to the low takeover premium. 

New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Writing reports on copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU) is tricky as they have a half-life of days, sometimes hours, as Kinterra and Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) compete head-to-head.
  • Last week, Kinterra bumped its off-market Offer to A$0.063/share; which increases to A$0.064/share if it gets to 30%. CAML, currently at A$0.062/share, has matching rights up until the 17th July.
  • The Takeovers Panel has now, not altogether unsurprisingly, opted not to declare unacceptable circumstances regarding Kinterra’s two applications.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval. 
  • Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent. 
  • There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer. 

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 13th June, dual-listed silver play Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN),with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a
  • Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie-listed line. And a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
  • As Adriatic is incorporated in the UK, the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August. 

Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE

By Douglas Kim

  • According to the local media, Netmarble is considering on issuing exchangeable bonds (EB) worth about 250 billion won backed by its stake in HYBE.
  • The potential EB issue is likely to be slightly positive on Netmarble and slightly negative on HYBE (mainly due to additional shares that could be sold in the market). 
  • We are Negative on BOTH Netmarble and HYBE. Their valuations are not attractive. Plus, HYBE could face a major negative issue of its founder Bang Si-hyuk who could be jailed. 

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
  • The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
  • Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.

Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

By Sanghyun Park

  • This is MoEF’s first gov-led tax reform—not lawmaker-initiated—and unlike April’s DP bill, it carries broader scope and priority fast-track status, boosting passage odds.
  • Local chatter says MoEF is eyeing end-July to table its tax reform bill — that’s the base case making the rounds on the tape today.
  • Gov may go full-scope: 9–25% div tax on all firms plus tax credits. Traders are now rotating into high forward-yield names ahead of MoEF’s late-July package.

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Jul 16
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yanlord Land, China Vanke
  • The UST curve bear-steepened marginally yesterday, in line with a steepening in the JGB curve and amid an absence of macro news. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.90%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.44%.
  • Equities shrugged off earlier losses to end the day marginally higher, after US President Donald Trump told reporters there could be trade talks, including with Europe. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,269, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3% at 20,640. The market focus today is on the US CPI for June.

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Jul 16
0

Daily Brief Macro: US Inflation Creeps In Quietly and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Inflation Creeps In Quietly
  • Korean Government’s New Task Force for Inclusion in a Major Global Index + IBKR Korea Trading Signal
  • Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade
  • Big, Beautiful Folly – Underweight Treasuries
  • CX Daily: Controversial Mind-Body Therapy Attracts Over 1 Million Chinese Seeking Miraculous Cures
  • US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in ’25
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 July
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 July

US Inflation Creeps In Quietly

By Phil Rush

  • Rebounding headline and core US inflation in June understated the underlying growth, with shelter rising at its slowest pace since August 2021. Tariff pain crept in belatedly.
  • Commodities, less food, energy and car prices grew by 0.3% m-o-m, the fastest since Feb-23, and services (ex-shelter) hit 0.4% m-o-m, both inconsistent with the target.
  • Less than half of the post-election surge in expectations has survived so far. Further rises remain likely, even if sustained avoidance smooths and reduces the full impact.

Korean Government’s New Task Force for Inclusion in a Major Global Index + IBKR Korea Trading Signal

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss Korean government’s new task force for Korea to be included in a major global index. 
  • Prior to this major market moving event, there will be some important signals. 
  • One of the most important signals could be major global securities companies (such as IBKR/TD Ameritrade) allowing trading of Korean stocks to customers world-wide. 

Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade

By Massif Capital Research

  • Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.
  • We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.
  • If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.

Big, Beautiful Folly – Underweight Treasuries

By Sharmila Whelan

  • The investment implications of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill are underweight US government debt and overweight US equities. 
  • The bill is just plain old fashion demand side fiscal stimulus. 
  • Favour momentum stocks with a sectoral bias towards  consumer discretionary, tech, industrials, traditional energy, defence. Underweight renewables and Treasuries and increase exposure to Bitcoin.

CX Daily: Controversial Mind-Body Therapy Attracts Over 1 Million Chinese Seeking Miraculous Cures

By Caixin Global

  • Therapy /Cover Story: Controversial mind-body therapy attracts 1 million Chinese seeking miraculous cures
  • Kindergarten /China province elevates probe into kindergarten lead-poisoning scandal
  • Dialysis /In Depth: The illicit drug trade lurking behind ‘free’ dialysis

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in ’25

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May’25 despite Trump’s tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).
  • M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May’25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. 
  • For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. 

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 July

By Iain Pocock

  • Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus vacuum gasoil at start of Q3 2025.
  • Europe’s Group II base oils price-differentials hold unusually firm vs Group I and Group III base oils at start of Q3 2025.
  • Europe’s Group II base oils price-premium to Asia/US prices trends higher from early-Q2 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils price-premium to heating oil edges lower, stays in narrow range since start of Q2 2025.
  • Base oils price-premium stays rangebound even with expected improvement in supply and slowdown in demand in coming weeks.
  • US base oils supply could rise more swiftly in coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds at elevated levels even as it slips from recent highs.
  • High heavy-grade margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output of the grades.
  • Besides firm margins, outperformance of regional Group I SN 500 price relative to other grades and other regions points to even stronger fundamentals for that product.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 July

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could ease as seasonal slowdown in consumption coincides with rise in supply.
  • Demand could get support from tighter surplus supply at start of Q3 2025 following recent plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets.
  • Tighter surplus supply curbs prospect of any imminent price-adjustments at time of year when fundamentals typically weaken.

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Jul 16
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount
  • Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
  • Jensen Went to the White House, and to China
  • Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
  • The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
  • Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!
  • Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential
  • Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
  • Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches

By Sameer Taneja

  • The August 1st deadline is approaching, and it seems a bit unclear whether a deal with Vietnam has been reached on a 20% tariff or something lower. 
  • With no formal agreement and just Trump’s Truth Social account as a reference, uncertainty looms. For HK-listed companies, the understanding is that they will pass on tariffs to their customers. 
  • We summarize this in our call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) following the results. We also provide updates for Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) and other names. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
  • UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
  • ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread

Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off

By Mark Chadwick

  • Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
  • Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
  • Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
  • It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
  • For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
  • However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
  • With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.  
  • The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).  
  • It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
  • While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
  • Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.

Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
  • Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
  • Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.

Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
  • Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
  • Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.

Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK

By Jacob Cheng

  • The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
  • Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman.  Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
  • We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Abacus Storage King, CSL Ltd, Macquarie Telecom and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge
  • Treasure Chest: CSL Not A One-Trick Pony
  • Macquarie Telecom Group Ltd – The Overnight Report: US-EU Talks Calm Nerves

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s Revised NBIO Faces a Daunting Challenge

By Arun George

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.65 per unit, a 14.7% premium to its previously rejected offer.
  • The Board will grant six weeks of due diligence. While below NTA (implies P/NTA of 0.95x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.   
  • The consortium will likely need to switch to a takeover offer as National Storage REIT (NSR AU), which holds effectively a blocking stake, is unlikely to vote in favour. 

Treasure Chest: CSL Not A One-Trick Pony

By FNArena

  • FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
  • Today’s idea is on CSL

Macquarie Telecom Group Ltd – The Overnight Report: US-EU Talks Calm Nerves

By FNArena

  • A global perspective on what happened overnight

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified
  • Supreme Court’s Final Ruling on Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong on 17 July: Impact on Samsung Group Companies

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

By Sanghyun Park

  • Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
  • Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
  • Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.

Supreme Court’s Final Ruling on Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong on 17 July: Impact on Samsung Group Companies

By Douglas Kim

  • The Supreme Court of Korea plans to make a final ruling on Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong on 17 July.
  • If the Supreme Court confirms this appellate court’s ruling, then Lee Jae-Yong would finally be cleared of all charges related to the Samsung C&T and Cheil Industries merger. 
  • The market is mostly expecting the confirmation of “not guilty” on all 19 charges on Lee Jae-Yong.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Sunmoon Food Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • European Tire Rubber Sector Faces Structural, Regulatory Headwinds
  • REIT Watch – NTT DC REIT IPO on July 14 broadens AI-related opportunities on SGX
  • Industrials take sector lead in 2025 net institutional inflow

European Tire Rubber Sector Faces Structural, Regulatory Headwinds

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Plant closures signal Europe’s industrial competitiveness crisis  
  • Regulatory burdens over Europe’s retreading sector future  
  • Weak enforcement and oversight cloud UK ELT exports   

REIT Watch – NTT DC REIT IPO on July 14 broadens AI-related opportunities on SGX

By Geoff Howie

  • NTT DC REIT’s IPO, scheduled for July 14, has a market capitalisation of US$1.03 billion, featuring six data centres.
  • NTT DC REIT projects a 7.5% annualised distribution yield for 9M FY26, surpassing other Data Centre S-REITs.
  • KDC’s AUM is S$4.9 billion, with 24 data centres; Digital Core REIT manages US$1.7 billion in assets.

Industrials take sector lead in 2025 net institutional inflow

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks, with a net inflow of S$94 million from Jul 4 to 10.
  • Industrials sector led 2025 net institutional inflows, booking S$629 million, surpassing telecommunications sector by Jul 10.
  • UOB led share buybacks with S$35.4 million, while Hongkong Land Holdings repurchased 946,000 shares at US$6.23 each.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Dian Swastatika Sentosa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
  • We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
  • Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief India: Travel Food Services, Anthem Biosciences, Bombay Stock Exchange, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Travel Food Services IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Subdued Overall Demand
  • Anthem Biosciences IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Anthem BioSciences IPO Analysis ~ The Fastest-Growing Indian CRDMO
  • Anthem Biosciences IPO: Despite 100% OFS, Worth Accumulating for Long-Term Compounding
  • BSE Derivative Volumes Hit by Jane Street Ban, Volatility Slump: EPS Cuts & Near-Term Downgrade
  • Glenmark’s R&D Leap: How a Large Biotech Liscensing Deal with AbbVie Could Change Its Fortune

Travel Food Services IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Subdued Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) raised about US$233m in its India IPO.
  • Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Anthem Biosciences IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise about US$397m in its India IPO.
  • Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the peer comp and IPO valuations.

Anthem BioSciences IPO Analysis ~ The Fastest-Growing Indian CRDMO

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is launching a 3,395 crore IPO via a complete OFS, with a price band of INR 540–570 per share, open from July 14 to July 16.
  • Company is a fully integrated CRDMO with capabilities across drug discovery, development, and manufacturing for both small molecules and biologics, serving 550+ customers globally.
  • The company is undertaking a major capacity expansion, set to make its fermentation capacity over 6x larger than the second-largest Indian CRDMO player post-expansion.

Anthem Biosciences IPO: Despite 100% OFS, Worth Accumulating for Long-Term Compounding

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Strong Revenue Momentum and Profitability:Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) achieved INR 18.4bn in revenue in FY25, growing 25% CAGR over FY20–FY25,with industry-leading EBITDA margins of 36.8% and PAT margin of 23.4%
  • Unique Dual Capability in Biologics and Small Molecules:Among the few Indian CRDMOs with end-to-end capabilities across both small and large molecules, and technology-driven portfolio including ADCs, RNAi, peptides, and oligonucleotides
  • Peer-Leading Returns and Robust Pipeline: Anthem boasts the highest ROCE (26.9%) among Indian peers, with significant IP-backed revenue streams and global molecule commercialization. It is a BUY for long term.

BSE Derivative Volumes Hit by Jane Street Ban, Volatility Slump: EPS Cuts & Near-Term Downgrade

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • BSE’s Option Premium ADTO in July MTD is down 25% MoM to INR 105bn amid lower market volatility and regulatory overhang from SEBI’s ban on Jane Street.
  • This weakness has triggered another 6–8% volume cut assumption in the market, on top of the 4–5% volume cut in June 2025.
  • BSE will face pressure in the near-term due to lower volume and valuation pressure, but long-term optimism tied to earnings if volumes normalize and reforms push investors toward cash equities.

Glenmark’s R&D Leap: How a Large Biotech Liscensing Deal with AbbVie Could Change Its Fortune

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) signed the world’s fourth-largest biotech licensing deal by upfront value, receiving $700 million from AbbVie for its cancer drug ISB 2001. 
  • The agreement grants AbbVie global rights for key markets while Glenmark retains Emerging Market access, unlocking $1.9 billion in total potential proceeds. 
  • This transforms Glenmark into a net-cash company, funds IGI’s R&D pipeline, delays IPO needs, and positions India as a serious biotech innovation hub.

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Jul 15
0

Daily Brief China: BYD, Ascentage Pharma Group Corp, Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings, Qingdao Port International , Meituan, HKEX, China International Capital Corporation, Busy Ming Group, MegaRobo Technologies and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Slowing Down in 2Q25, But Competitors Facing Cash Flow Stress
  • Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement – Past Deals Didn’t Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong
  • Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Some Changes to Expectations; Large Index Flows
  • Meituan (3690): Full Round-Trip, Surge in Call Volumes Provide Strong Trade Setup
  • Hong Kong Financials in Focus: Sub-Sector Option Volumes Reveal Emerging Themes
  • BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Under Pressure as Sales Momentum Fades
  • CICC (3908 HK): It Is the Best of the Time
  • Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group – Concerns Behind the High Growth
  • MegaRobo Technologies IPO Preview: AI-Driven Robotics Unicorn With Strong IP Moat In Automation

BYD (1211 HK): Sales Volume Slowing Down in 2Q25, But Competitors Facing Cash Flow Stress

By Ming Lu

  • The sales volume growth rate slowed down month by month in 2Q25.
  • The domestic sales volume was stagnant in 2Q25 and decreased YoY from March to June.
  • However, competitors expanded aggressively; therefore, we believe small ones may go bankrupt.

Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement – Past Deals Didn’t Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via  top-up placement.
  • The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with none of the deals having done well. Although stock momentum has been strong this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (1396 HK): This Doesn’t Add Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • Property developer Guangdong – Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Holdings (1396 HK) (GHKGBA) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • GHKGBA, previously known as Hydoo, was subject to an unconditional MGO in 2019 after China Guangdong-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area (CGHKGBA) acquired a 51.56%.  CGHKGBA currently holds a 50.94% stake
  • At a guess, CGHKGBA will seek to take GHKGBA private by way of a Scheme. The rub/pushback? GHKGBA’s share price is up 2,383% YTD. And trailing P/B is ~7x. 

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: Some Changes to Expectations; Large Index Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 45 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Meituan (3690): Full Round-Trip, Surge in Call Volumes Provide Strong Trade Setup

By John Ley

  • Meituan has completed a full roundtrip from its 2024 rally and is now back near key support.
  • Option traders have taken notice, with a notable pickup in activity—especially for Calls.
  • We outline two trade structures depending on directional or vol views.

Hong Kong Financials in Focus: Sub-Sector Option Volumes Reveal Emerging Themes

By John Ley

  • Volume trends and sub-sector splits highlight where interest is most concentrated.
  • We revisit top names that appeared prominently in last week’s active lists
  • Trading patterns suggest a mix of positioning motives across Financial names.

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Under Pressure as Sales Momentum Fades

By Nico Rosti

  • BYD (1211 HK) fell for longer than expected since our last insight was published. We said that if BYD was going to fall below 120, the trend would become bearish.
  • The stock did not fall a lot, it briefly reached below our 120 support level (75% probability of reversal), but has been down for 5 weeks. It is oversold.
  • The big question now is: can BYD recover and start to trend up again? Or are we going to see a small bounce from oversold levels, followed by lower prices?

CICC (3908 HK): It Is the Best of the Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)‘s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  
  • YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.
  • Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group – Concerns Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • BUSY MING operates under the franchise model, under which franchisees and BUSY MING form collaboration and a virtuous cycle, benefiting from the ecological logic of high turnover.
  • However, the potential risk is increasing homogeneous competition. Price wars and competitors’ rapid expansion would further squeeze the profit margin of BUSY MING and lead to market oversaturation.
  • The current high growth may not sustain.BUSY MING clearly hopes to successfully IPO during the current peak period of performance, but investors may face a decline in performance after IPO.

MegaRobo Technologies IPO Preview: AI-Driven Robotics Unicorn With Strong IP Moat In Automation

By Andrei Zakharov

  • MegaRobo Technologies, AI & robotics unicorn with focus on lab automation in life sciences and intelligent manufacturing, files to list IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • Founder led, AI native company was backed by Sinovation Ventures, Goldman Sachs, Asia Investment Capital, Robert Bosch Venture Capital, GGV Capital, and Joy Capital, among others.
  • The business is growing fast and increases the number of use cases across new verticals. However, negative free cash flows and operating losses are a headwind.

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