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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down


Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons  
  •  Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25  
  •  Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Daily Brief China: Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Scie, Medtide, Oriental Watch, Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts, Iron Ore, Nationz Technologies Inc A, Seazen Holdings , Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: 1x-3x ADV for Most Names; Couple of Pair Trade Ideas
  • Medtide (泰德医药) IPO: Aggressive Valuation
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows
  • [IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Early Preview; Multiple Changes Possible
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: 1x-3x ADV for Most Names; Couple of Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Medtide (泰德医药) IPO: Aggressive Valuation

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Medtide, a Chinese headquartered CDMO company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$66m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals. We highlighted potential corporate governance issues despite its superior financials compared to peers.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation and broker guidance is aggressive.

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Resilient Despite Tough HK Environment, Dividend A Slight Disappointment

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) delivered a resilient result with revenue/profits -5%/-20% YoY (ex-one offs -11.5% YoY), despite weakness in HK (22% of sales), where the company is now making losses. 
  • Cash & Investments dipped to 901 mn HKD, representing about 54% of the market capitalization. The company declared a 16.7 HKD cent/dividend (FY25: 41.3 HKD/cent yield 12%). 
  • We believe that FY26 will be a year of consolidation, and with a weak HK, profits will remain subdued. Stock trades at 8.4x FY25 with a 12% dividend yield. 

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$600mn Collective One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

By Umang Agrawal

  • Iron ore prices declined due to weakening demand from China, driven by a slump in its property sector, which has kept iron ore demand for steel subdued.
  • China’s steel production dropped 6.9% YoY in May amid capacity cuts, with blast furnace utilisation and pig iron output declining, though some furnace restarts may boost production soon.
  • Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure, and the MACD below its signal line reinforces the current bearish trend.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Early Preview; Multiple Changes Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • We expect up to six ADDs and two DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
  • The US market was closed for Juneteenth yesterday.
  • US President Donald Trump has indicated that he will decide whether to attack Iran within the next two weeks, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 16 – 20): Breadth Erodes, Vol Slips, Hedges Worth a Look

By John Ley

  • Single stocks were softer on the week, with breadth continuing to weaken.
  • Put volumes surged to their highest levels since April; Put open interest continues to rise.
  • Implied volatility declined on the week despite elevated demand for downside protection.

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Daily Brief India: Orkla India Ltd., Oswal Pumps, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Trent Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand
  • Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!
  • Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
  • Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down


Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
  • It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
  • OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) raised about US$162m in its India IPO.
  • Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN)  (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
  • LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
  • As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!

By Avien Pillay

  • We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
  • We are, however, concerned that Apollo will face intense competition as it expands.
  • A 53 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Zudio has rocketed to 765 stores, now half of Trent’s revenue, with FY-25 sales topping to A Billion dollars and 244 outlets added in one year.
  • Its asset-light FOCO rollout, 15-day design-to-rack cycle and sub-INR 999 pricing are redefining India’s value-fashion economics and pressuring rivals to mimic.
  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is no longer a steady Westside play; Zudio’s runaway scale and margins reposition the group as India’s fastest-growing, mass-market fashion juggernaut.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bajaj Finance (BAF IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
  • Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.
  • Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons  
  •  Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25  
  •  Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Daily Brief Japan: Septeni Holdings, Kobe Steel Ltd, Japan Hotel Reit Investment, Resona Holdings, AS ONE Corporation, Towa Corp, Japan Business Systems , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Nippon Aqua, Polaris Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings
  • Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value
  • The Yen’s Volatility & Japanese Hotel REITs: A Tourism-Driven Comeback Story
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Key Fundamental Tailwinds Drive Our Positive Picks
  • AS ONE (7476 JP) – A Royalty on Japan’s Scientific Advancement
  • Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound
  • Japan Business System (5036 JP) – Cloud Integration Profitability Recovering Sharply
  • A Dialogue with a Skilled Outside Director Will Create Value. This Premise Is Important
  • Nippon Aqua (1429 JP) – Innovator in Living Environments
  • Polaris Holdings (3010 JP) – Scaling New Heights Through Strategic M&A and Surging Inbound Demand


Asian Dividend Gems: Septeni Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Septeni Holdings is one of the leaders in Japan in the digital marketing business which mainly includes digital advertising, marketing support, data & AI-driven solutions.
  • The company has also aggressively raised dividend payouts which is a clear sign of improving corporate governance.
  • The company is also well positioned to deliver sales growth rate of about 5-7% per year in the next 2-3 years with 20%+ per year growth in operating profit.

Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value

By Rahul Jain

  • Earnings stable over 3 years as machinery and power offset weak steel margins; ROIC gradually improving.
  • Focus on KOBEMAG®, machinery expansion, and carbon-neutral projects with disciplined capex.
  • Trades at ~5x P/E due to low ROIC, past governance issues, and misperception as a pure steel cyclical.

The Yen’s Volatility & Japanese Hotel REITs: A Tourism-Driven Comeback Story

By Jacob Cheng

  • The JPY Yen has depreciated 25% against USD for the last 5 years, this has made Japan an extremely attractive destination for foreigners
  • The Japan’s hotel sector is known by its low supply, partly due to higher development cost and labour shortage.  We think REVPAR and ADR will continue to be strong
  • We like Japan Hotel REIT and Invincible for their hotel exposure.  We think investors should closely monitor the Yen movement as well as BOJ policy

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Key Fundamental Tailwinds Drive Our Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • The Bank of Japan left the short-term interest rate unchanged, but the governor stated that the tapering of JGB buying will continue, albeit with an eye on market stability
  • This implies that the JGB yield curve is likely to continue steepening going forward, which is constructive for Japanese banks; in addition, market lending rates to April continue to rise
  • We reassert buys on Resona, Mizuho, Shizuoka and Kyoto aided by our proprietary scorecard, and based on two core attributes; gearing to higher interest rates and cross-holdings to market capitalization

AS ONE (7476 JP) – A Royalty on Japan’s Scientific Advancement

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • As scientific progress increasingly depends on more complex equipment and precision instruments, we believe wholesaler and distributor AS ONE is well-positioned to capture demand through expanding its presence in the high-end segment.
  • Demand for scientific supplies and lower-end scientific equipment remains stable, providing a resilient, recurring revenue base.
  • The company’s growth has consistently outpaced and shown limited correlation with national R&D spending. 

Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

By Scott Foster

  • After nearly two years of decline, TOWA’s new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
  • Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
  • Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.

Japan Business System (5036 JP) – Cloud Integration Profitability Recovering Sharply

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In Q2 FY24/9 financial results reported exactly one year ago, profit attributable to owners of parent declined -74.1% due to recording an impairment loss of JPY 1,720mn in the 2Q as an extraordinary loss for the entire unamortized balance of goodwill associated with the acquisition of consolidated subsidiary NEXTSCAPE Inc.
  • In SIR’s follow-up report, we wrote “management promptly recognizing the impairment and withdrawing the FY25/9 OP MTP target effectively minimizes future down-side risk.
  • In the meantime, core business performance continues to grow at double-digits. ”

A Dialogue with a Skilled Outside Director Will Create Value. This Premise Is Important

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason why many companies have previously rejected requests by overseas investors to meet with outside directors is that they’ve prioritized information control over constructive dialogue with shareholders and investors.
  • The fact that companies begun to provide opportunities for communication with outside directors will hopefully lead to shifts in value-creating management, but it’ll not easy to spread to many companies.
  • Even if more companies provide opportunities for communication between outside directors and investors in the future, dialogue with unskilled outside directors will not be fruitful.

Nippon Aqua (1429 JP) – Innovator in Living Environments

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Nippon Aqua Co., Ltd. (hereinafter, “the Company”) is a high-growth enterprise listed on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
  • Guided by its management philosophy—“Contribution to society through the creation of living environments that are friendly to people and the earth”—the Company leverages insulation and waterproofing technologies to drive energy efficiency and support a sustainable society.
  • It holds the leading domestic share in on-site urethane foam insulation installation and operates its business through three key divisions: Single-family homes , Buildings, and Waterproofing.

Polaris Holdings (3010 JP) – Scaling New Heights Through Strategic M&A and Surging Inbound Demand

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Supported by Star Asia Group, Polaris Holdings now operates six hotel brands and is scaling up with a goal of 100 hotels and 15,000 rooms by FY3/27.
  • Shifting to a low-risk, fee-based model and a well-balanced fixed and variable lease structure to optimize risk-adjusted returns, its strategic mix of assets is enhancing earnings stability and growth potential.
  • Backed by strong financial foundations and effective capital deployment, Polaris is also expanding into new hotel types, strengthening its platform, and positioning for sustainable, scalable growth amid rising inbound demand. 

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Most Read: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, BayCurrent Consulting , Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, NTT Data Corp, Mitsui Matsushima, Qi An Xin Technology Group , Seven Bank Ltd, Ningbo Port, China Rare Earth Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
  • [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025
  • [Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way
  • [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas
  • [Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
  • BoE Still Seeking Evidence
  • China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?


Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
  • There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK)
  • The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July. 

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
  • For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there’s an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

[Japan Event] Potentially Interesting Dynamics of Post-Tender NTT Data (9613) Trading. $8bn+ One Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer closed today. Results will come out tomorrow. I expect it will have been successful. 
  • That will mean some US$8bn+ of passive tracking flows to sell and $8bn+ to buy related to this event alone in the next 3 months. 
  • And there are some very interesting dynamics to consider in the meantime. 

[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518) Ups Buyback Tender to 35.8%, Murakami-San Group To Sell

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced it would increase its buyback from 3.5mm shares to 4.0mm shares (31.3% to 35.8%). It also announced a Tender Offer Buyback.
  • The tender offer starts tomorrow and goes til mid-July, paid 8 August. Murakami Group will tender a minimum of 3.3mm shares (more likely 4.2mm). 
  • This is not a huge immediate win, but it’s OK. And it changes the structure of the company’s balance sheet, ROE, effective ROE, and possibly its dividend. 

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Some High-Impact Names; New Sector-Neutral Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

[Japan Event] Seven Bank (8410) To Buy Back Up to 17.0% of Shares Out Tomorrow

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) announced a MASSIVE ToSTNeT-3 transaction to buy back up to 200,000,000 shares (17.0% of shares out) for ¥52.4bn. Tomorrow AM. 
  • There is a complex iterative calculation on the part of Seven Eleven Japan to figure out how many shares they should put into the buyback.
  • I see a minimum buyback of 10.8%. 17% would be great. But there is a potential issue on the back end of which investors should be aware.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

BoE Still Seeking Evidence

By Phil Rush

  • Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
  • Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
  • We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.

China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources, Cochlear


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Northern Star Resources, Cochlear

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.1bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Cochlear, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Evolution Mining, Brambles.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Rare Earth Holdings, Nippon Steel Corporation, Copper, New World Resources, Amman Mineral Internasional, United States Oil Fund LP, Stora Enso OYJ, Allegheny Technologies, Provaris Energy , SSAB AB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?
  • Nippon Steel (5401 JP) – No Rival, No Discount, Limited Control
  • Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
  • New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel
  • AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside
  • Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity
  • Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst
  • Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI): Aerospace & Defense Sector Growth To Bolster Its Position & Capitalively Grow In Critical Markets!
  • Riding the energy transition wave
  • SSAB- Game-Changing Product Mix & Regulatory Edge Propel Long-Term Upside!


China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?

By David Blennerhassett


Nippon Steel (5401 JP) – No Rival, No Discount, Limited Control

By Rahul Jain

  • Nippon paid full price despite governance restrictions; with no credible rival, rejecting the golden share risked collapsing the deal.
  • Historical golden share precedents imply 10–20% valuation discounts, yet Nippon accepted late-stage constraints without renegotiation.
  • Funding mix includes bridge loans, hybrids, and asset sales, but proposed equity issuance near 40% below book risks EPS dilution and undermines capital discipline messaging.

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

By Rahul Jain

  • Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
  • This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
  • The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.

New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel

By David Blennerhassett

  • Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has bumped terms for New World Resources (NWC AU) to A$0.053/share, up from A$0.05/share initially. An off-market Offer is in parallel should the Scheme fail. 
  • Separately, NWC announced a A$10mn placement – funded by CAML! – to advance its Antler Project, “conditional on either no competing proposal being received by …. 4 July 2025“. 
  • Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a 11.99% stake, has now tapped the Takeovers Panel to declare the placement a frustrating tactic. 

AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Q1 2025 results reflected a transitional quarter with lower grades, but FY2025 guidance was maintained.
  • Ongoing investments in smelter ramp-up, power infrastructure, and long-term plans for Elang underscore AMMN’s integrated growth strategy.
  • Valuations appear premium vs peers, but are partly justified by structural cost advantages, downstream leverage, and world-class Elang optionality—though single-asset exposure remains a key risk.

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

By John Ley

  • Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
  • Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
  • The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.

Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Forest spin-off could unlock €2.2bn in hidden NAV and enhance valuation transparency, but will not reduce debt as shares are distributed directly to shareholders.
  • Industrial operations are undervalued vs peers, providing cyclical recovery upside.
  • Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) path simplification addresses conglomerate discount and improves investor transparency.

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI): Aerospace & Defense Sector Growth To Bolster Its Position & Capitalively Grow In Critical Markets!

By Baptista Research

  • ATI reported robust first-quarter financial results for 2025, showing continued strong momentum.
  • Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, reaching approximately $1.14 billion, mainly driven by high demand in aerospace and defense (A&D).
  • The company’s adjusted EBITDA of $195 million exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share also surpassing the top of guidance.

Riding the energy transition wave

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
  • The keystone to production and growth is proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling bigger volumes of compressed hydrogen to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
  • The company holds a material early-mover advantage with strategic partnerships and supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months into 2026.

SSAB- Game-Changing Product Mix & Regulatory Edge Propel Long-Term Upside!

By Baptista Research

  • SSAB, a prominent player in the global steel industry, presented its first-quarter 2025 results, providing investors with a snapshot of its operational and financial landscape.
  • The company has maintained a commendable safety record, which remains a top priority across its operations.
  • The quarter’s financial performance delivered an operating result of approximately SEK 1.3 billion, aligning with expectations.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Two Weeks to Negotiate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Two Weeks to Negotiate
  • Asia Monetary Easing: Tailored for Income-Generating Real Estate
  • Australia Real Estate: Seeking Values
  • #164 India Insights: TCS-Salling AI Deal, Hindustan Zinc 12k Cr Capex, Falcon Jets by 2028


Ohayo Japan | Two Weeks to Negotiate

By Mark Chadwick

  • Trump said he will make a decision on whether to launch military strike on Iran “within next two weeks;” otherwise markets quiet – ie. closed
  • Seven & i Holdings will sell part of its Seven Bank stake, reducing its shareholding to 39.9%, making it an equity-method affiliate
  • Sony projects 90% of major global automakers will adopt its automotive CMOS sensors by fiscal 2027, aiming for a 43% market share.

Asia Monetary Easing: Tailored for Income-Generating Real Estate

By Jacob Cheng

  • The Fed announced to hold rates unchanged, but the SEP indicates they expect 2 rate cuts in 2025 and 1 more in 2026.  Tariff remains a short-term concern
  • Under such a macro backdrop, we think key economies in Asia (with the exception of Japan) will continue their monetary easing path
  • Real estate will benefit from lower interest rates.  We like Goodman Group on the back of its strong global industrial exposure, and CICT SP, on its well-diversified exposure in Singapore

Australia Real Estate: Seeking Values

By Jacob Cheng

  • Australia’s central bank RBA has recently cut rates in May meeting, with market expecting more rate cuts to come.  We expect this will provide tailwind for real estate
  • Within real estate sub-sectors, industrial & logistics and retail are well supported by strong fundamentals.  Office and residential are seeing mixed pictures
  • We like Goodman on its global exposure on industrial and logistics.  We also like Vicinity Centers due to its exposure on quality retail.

#164 India Insights: TCS-Salling AI Deal, Hindustan Zinc 12k Cr Capex, Falcon Jets by 2028

By Sudarshan Bhandari


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Daily Brief Industrials: Ningbo Port, Samyang Comtech, Beijer Ref , Sweco , Moog Inc Class A, Braille Energy Systems, Manpowergroup Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
  • Samyang Comtech IPO Preview
  • Beijer Ref: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Acquisitions & Green Tech Disruption Drive Explosive Growth Potential!
  • Sweco AB – Will Operational Cuts & Efficiency Moves Drive a Turnaround?
  • Moog Inc.: Advancements in Space & Defense to Solidify Its Position Within The Defense Industry!
  • BES: Progressing with Enercare Agreement
  • ManpowerGroup: Restructuring Initiatives in Northern Europe to Support Financial Recovery & Future Growth Plans!


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
  • Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Samyang Comtech IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Samyang Comtec (a mid-sized defense company) is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in July. It is one of the leaders in the bulletproof and protective materials sector.
  • The IPO price range is from 6,600 won to 7,700 won per share. The IPO offering amount range is from 95.7 billion won to 111.7 billion won.
  • The company has experienced a surging growth in exports in the past several years. Exports which accounted for only 6.3% of total sales in 2022, increased to 41% in 2024.

Beijer Ref: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Acquisitions & Green Tech Disruption Drive Explosive Growth Potential!

By Baptista Research

  • Beijer Ref AB (Beijer Ref) recently announced its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, providing a mixed set of results amid varying global economic conditions.
  • The company reported a robust total sales growth of 16%, driven by both organic expansion and strategic acquisitions.
  • Organic growth stood at 4%, suggesting steady underlying business momentum, while acquisition-driven expansion played a significant role in overall sales achievement.

Sweco AB – Will Operational Cuts & Efficiency Moves Drive a Turnaround?

By Baptista Research

  • Sweco AB, a prominent architecture and engineering consultancy in Europe, reported a strong start to the fiscal year with its Q1 results.
  • The company achieved a growth in net sales exceeding SEK 8 billion, marking a 4% organic growth increase.
  • EBITDA rose by 10%, and the EBITDA margin improved to 11.2%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency through higher average fees, improved billing ratios, and effective cost control measures.

Moog Inc.: Advancements in Space & Defense to Solidify Its Position Within The Defense Industry!

By Baptista Research

  • Moog Inc.’s financial performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 demonstrated robust sales and strategic adaptability amid potential uncertainties from evolving tariffs.
  • Overall, the company reported record-level sales of $935 million, which slightly surpassed last year’s second quarter figures.
  • The company exhibited strength in its Defense, Military Aircraft, and Commercial Aircraft segments, although Industrial sector sales declined, primarily influenced by the company’s simplification initiatives.

BES: Progressing with Enercare Agreement

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • BES has announced several positive updates over the last few months including an agreement with Enercare to distribute and install its home backup power system.
  • • Braille is progressing through Enercare’s onboarding process and expects sales over the coming quarters.
  • • EarlyAlert is in the final stages of its product development and will begin sales in the coming months.

ManpowerGroup: Restructuring Initiatives in Northern Europe to Support Financial Recovery & Future Growth Plans!

By Baptista Research

  • ManpowerGroup’s recent earnings revealed a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both favorable and challenging aspects of its business environment.
  • The company’s global operations spanning Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, and North America faced varying levels of demand due to economic and geopolitical dynamics, particularly influenced by trade policy announcements in the U.S. which have resulted in heightened uncertainty and cautious client behavior.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief ECM: Aug 5 LG CNS Lockup Comes Off: Street Heating Up on Macquarie Exit Odds Surging and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aug 5 LG CNS Lockup Comes Off: Street Heating Up on Macquarie Exit Odds Surging
  • Nippon Building Fund Placement – Small Deal but Lacks Accretion
  • Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares
  • Samyang Comtech IPO Preview
  • Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well


Aug 5 LG CNS Lockup Comes Off: Street Heating Up on Macquarie Exit Odds Surging

By Sanghyun Park

  • Macquarie might fast-track its 21.5% LG CNS stake sale, shifting from patience to action — weighing staggered sell-down vs. OTC block to limit price impact.
  • Macquarie’s well in the money — even with a deal discount, they can offload the stake, cover remaining debt, and still lock in solid upside.
  • LG CNS is flying on AI hype, but Macquarie’s post-August 5 exit risk could flip the tape fast — overhang setup worth watching vs. other local AI plays.

Nippon Building Fund Placement – Small Deal but Lacks Accretion

By Sumeet Singh

  • Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) is looking to raise around US$122m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of Frontier Musashikosugi N Building and S Building.
  • Unusually for Japan, the acquisition was announced at the end of last month, while the raising has only been announced today.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Saint Bella, a luxury maternity and baby care brand, has announced the fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share for its IPO in Hong Kong.  
  • The company is expected to IPO next week and initial fixed offer price implies a market cap of ~HK$3.9B. Saint Bella is set to start trading on June 26, 2025.
  • Cornerstone investors have agreed to invest ~$42M in this offering. China Asset Management, JKKB and SS Morgan are among the cornerstone investors.  

Samyang Comtech IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Samyang Comtec (a mid-sized defense company) is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in July. It is one of the leaders in the bulletproof and protective materials sector.
  • The IPO price range is from 6,600 won to 7,700 won per share. The IPO offering amount range is from 95.7 billion won to 111.7 billion won.
  • The company has experienced a surging growth in exports in the past several years. Exports which accounted for only 6.3% of total sales in 2022, increased to 41% in 2024.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well

By Akshat Shah

  • Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
  • Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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