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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Bharat Electronics, Air Canada, Sanyo Trading, Carrier Global , C.H. Robinson Worldwide, OKP Holdings, Ww Grainger Inc, Howmet Aerospace and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares
  • HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank
  • Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver
  • Carrier Global’s Localization & Dual Sourcing Strategy—Can It Outpace Global Disruptions?
  • C.H. Robinson Focusing On Global Expansion with Southeast Asia Trade Shift; What Lies Ahead?
  • Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation
  • W.W. Grainger Inc. Shields Profits with Bold Moves in Pricing, Imports, & Market Targeting!
  • Howmet Aerospace Fortifies Financial Resilience with Aggressive Tariff Mitigation Strategy; What’s Next?


HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KKR is selling 3.81 million shares (8.5% of outstanding shares) of HD Hyundai Marine Solution in a block deal sale.
  • The expected block deal sale price is 145,000 won to 148,000 won per share, which represent 7.96% to 9.83% discount to the closing price of 160,800 won on 22 May.
  • Once this block deal is completed, KKR’s remaining stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution will be reduced to 11% (4.94 million shares).

HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$410m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS).
  • KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had  tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024 and finally undertook a deal in Feb 2025.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas


Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines

By Special Situation Investments

  • Air Canada is conducting a tender offer for ~8% of shares, prioritizing odd-lot holders, with potential upside.
  • The company plans significant CapEx for fleet modernization, impacting free cash flow and financial projections until 2028.
  • Air Canada’s valuation is low compared to peers, trading at 3.3x EBITDA, with a 54% EBITDA growth target by 2028.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY9/25 results met expectations, with the company’s diversified operations helping offset softness in Industrial Products and Life Science.
  • A key positive was the acceleration of growth in Sustainability, driven by green technology and energy solutions, which reinforces its potential as a core earnings driver.
  • Fine Chemicals remained resilient, backed by domestic demand for industrial rubber. 

Carrier Global’s Localization & Dual Sourcing Strategy—Can It Outpace Global Disruptions?

By Baptista Research

  • Carrier Global Corporation reported a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong results across various segments despite facing some challenges in certain areas.
  • The company, which specializes in HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions, provided a comprehensive view of its financial performance, including significant areas of growth and concern, setting the stage for the remainder of the year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

C.H. Robinson Focusing On Global Expansion with Southeast Asia Trade Shift; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • C.H. Robinson delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, with significant progress on strategic initiatives aimed at improving market share and margins despite an unsteady freight market.
  • The company’s North American Surface Transportation (NAST) division reported better-than-market growth in truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, demonstrating an ability to adapt and gain market share.
  • In Global Forwarding, C.H. Robinson successfully won new business while optimizing expenses to enhance productivity, resulting in a 39% year-over-year increase in income from operations.

Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation

By Geoff Howie

  • In 2025, Singapore’s Industrials sector saw increased trading activity, with over one-third experiencing over 50% ADT growth.
  • ST Engineering led the STI in performance, supported by diversified revenue streams and investments in digital technologies.
  • OKP Holdings reported a 95% share price gain, driven by technology integration, productivity boosts, and geographical diversification.

W.W. Grainger Inc. Shields Profits with Bold Moves in Pricing, Imports, & Market Targeting!

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger’s first quarter of 2025 results reflect a performance largely in line with expectations, highlighting the environmental dynamics impacting the business.
  • Total company reported sales were up by 1.7% on a reported basis, equating to a 4.4% increase on a daily constant currency basis.
  • Operating margins were noted at a healthy 15.6%, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising by $0.24 to $9.86.

Howmet Aerospace Fortifies Financial Resilience with Aggressive Tariff Mitigation Strategy; What’s Next?

By Baptista Research

  • Howmet Aerospace’s first-quarter earnings in 2025 reflect both strengths and challenges for the company.
  • The quarter began with a solid performance across the board, with revenue reaching a record level and improving year over year by 6%.
  • The company’s operational efficiency contributed to this outcome, as evidenced by its EBITDA margin of 28.8% and operating margin of 25.3%, which increased by 500 basis points compared to the previous year.

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Daily Brief Financials: Soundwill Holdings, Schloss Bangalore Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Paradigm REIT, CARE Ratings, Japan Post Holdings, Revolut Limited, Indusind Bank, Marqeta , OKP Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
  • Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised
  • Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play
  • Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks
  • CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains
  • Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…
  • Revolut-Ion Ahead: What To Know Before The $45 Billion Fintech IPO
  • IndusInd Bank: Auditors Caught Napping
  • Marqeta (MQ): Dinosaur of a Payments Processor
  • Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised

By Akshat Shah

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • While one of the two companies displays higher revenue growth, the valuation might begin to become stretched. Fundamental key figures are provided to complement the statistical analysis.
  • Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks

By Troy Wong

  • Paradigm REIT (PR) is looking to raise about US$131m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by Maybank, AmInvestment Bank, and CGS International.
  • PR offers stable exposure to well-located retail assets with high occupancy and steady rental growth.
  • While lease expiry risks and tenant concentration are concerns, current valuation at 17.4x FY25E P/E and 5.7% yield appears fair, given its higher occupancy and lower gearing than peers.

CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • CARE Ratings achieved its highest-ever standalone and consolidated income and profitability in FY25, significantly improving margins across the group.
  • The results validate the effectiveness of the company’s quality-led growth strategy, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments in non-ratings and international businesses.
  • The performance reinforces confidence in Care’s ability to outpace the industry and achieve its diversification targets, supported by strong execution and market positioning.

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…

By Rikki Malik

  • Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
  • While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
  • With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there

Revolut-Ion Ahead: What To Know Before The $45 Billion Fintech IPO

By Finimize Research

  • With 53 million users, a shiny new UK banking license, and IPO buzz building, now feels like a good moment to take a closer look.
  • Revolut’s on track to become one of the world’s most valuable neobanks. Based on a $45 billion valuation, its implied PER is 28x, thanks to expected strong growth rates.
  • Assuming revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2030 tapering from 50% to 10%,  a simple DCF makes the $45 billion valuation look rich.

IndusInd Bank: Auditors Caught Napping

By Nitin Mangal

  • Indusind Bank (IIB IN) released their Q4 and FY25 results, which highlighted further episodes of bizarre accounting plays. 
  • The cumulative impact of material accounting adjustments was INR 26 bn, enough to engulf profits by 50% for the year. 
  • Noting the same, management and auditors, which were left blindfolded, suggested a possible fraud committed against the bank.

Marqeta (MQ): Dinosaur of a Payments Processor

By J Capital Research

  • The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business.
  • Future revenue looks​ weak for this “dinosaur” of a payments-processing company.
  • Marqeta (MQ) is (mostly) a payment processor. MQ helps fintechs host their own payments tools by contracting with a Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner bank to manage client deposits. 

Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation

By Geoff Howie

  • In 2025, Singapore’s Industrials sector saw increased trading activity, with over one-third experiencing over 50% ADT growth.
  • ST Engineering led the STI in performance, supported by diversified revenue streams and investments in digital technologies.
  • OKP Holdings reported a 95% share price gain, driven by technology integration, productivity boosts, and geographical diversification.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Vulcan Materials Co, Crude Oil, Copper, Albemarle Corp, Eog Resources, DT Midstream Inc, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc, HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., Pharos Energy, Serica Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Vulcan Materials: Rock On – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]
  • [ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge
  • The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle
  • Albemarle Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Lithium Contracting Strategy
  • EOG Resources Seizes Natural Gas Momentum with Strategic Dorado Expansion & Rock-Bottom Breakevens!
  • DT Midstream: Expanding Capacity & Infrastructure Synergies To Shape the Future!
  • Air Products and Chemicals Accelerates Green Hydrogen Push with Game-Changing EU Regulatory Alignment; What’s Next On Its Radar?
  • HELLENiQ ENERGY — Elefsina upgrades to drive margins higher
  • Pharos Energy Plc – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 15/05/2025
  • Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another very good well result. Triton on track


Vulcan Materials: Rock On – [Business Breakdowns, REPLAY]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Vulcan Materials is a major player in the construction aggregates market, providing the foundation for buildings, roads, and infrastructure in the United States.
  • The company owns and operates quarries across the country, with a market cap close to $30 billion.
  • Aggregates are essential for asphalt and concrete production, with Vulcan playing a crucial role in supplying this key material for construction projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
  • The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
  • Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
  • Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

Albemarle Corporation: An Analysis Of Its Lithium Contracting Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Albemarle Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company’s current standing and future prospects, presenting an amalgam of strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • The corporation reported net sales of $1.1 billion, reflecting robust lithium production, particularly through their integrated conversion network.
  • This was a positive highlight in a period marked by broader volatility in lithium pricing.

EOG Resources Seizes Natural Gas Momentum with Strategic Dorado Expansion & Rock-Bottom Breakevens!

By Baptista Research

  • EOG Resources, Inc. reported a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing both its operational efficiency and strategic capital management within the volatile oil and gas industry.
  • The company achieved adjusted net income of $1.6 billion, with $1.3 billion in free cash flow, which was largely returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
  • This positions EOG as a shareholder-friendly entity with a keen focus on value creation in line with its history of consistent returns.

DT Midstream: Expanding Capacity & Infrastructure Synergies To Shape the Future!

By Baptista Research

  • DT Midstream Inc. reported on a robust start to 2025, maintaining a steady roadmap with its financial and operational strategies.
  • The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance and extended its favorable outlook into 2026.
  • The integration of newly acquired interstate pipelines is progressing smoothly, with all financial activities transitioned into DT Midstream’s systems by April 1st.

Air Products and Chemicals Accelerates Green Hydrogen Push with Game-Changing EU Regulatory Alignment; What’s Next On Its Radar?

By Baptista Research

  • Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) recently reported its financial performance and strategic outlook, marking a period of transition under the new CEO, Eduardo Menezes.
  • The company, historically a leader in the industrial gases sector, is recalibrating its strategic priorities to focus more on its traditional business strengths while addressing challenges from previous strategic forays into high-risk growth areas.
  • A primary point of discussion has been the company’s shift back to its core industrial gas business, which includes on-site projects with take-or-pay agreements, a robust merchant business, and a portfolio of high-quality joint ventures.

HELLENiQ ENERGY — Elefsina upgrades to drive margins higher

By Edison Investment Research

HELLENiQ’s Q125 saw both weak refining margins and suppressed oil products sales due to inventory build ahead of a turnaround at its Elefsina refinery. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of €180m (down 47% y-o-y), and adjusted net income of €55m (down 66% y-o-y). Refining sales volumes reached 3.532m tonnes, an 11% decrease year-on-year, although production was down only 3%, the difference being inventory build ahead of the Elefsina shutdown for maintenance and upgrade. The benchmark refining margin was stable quarter-on-quarter at $5.1/bbl, but down materially from $8.0/bbl in Q124.


Pharos Energy Plc – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 15/05/2025

By Hybridan

  • 12th May: Cobalt Holdings, a Company created primarily to purchase and hold physical cobalt, offering public equity investors pure-play direct exposure to the price of cobalt, announced its intention to raise approximately US$230m through its Global Offer and the possible Admission on to the Main Market in June 2025.
  • Glencore International AG and certain entities and affiliates managed by Anchorage Structured Commodities Advisor, have agreed to participate as cornerstone investors, agreeing to invest, in aggregate, an amount representing approximately 20.5% of the Shares to be offered pursuant to the Global Offer.
  • 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it is considering an IPO onto the Main Market.

Serica Energy Plc (AIM: SQZ): Another very good well result. Triton on track

By Auctus Advisors

  • From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d.
  • This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton.
  • Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June.

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Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Bharat Electronics, Air Canada, Sanyo Trading, Carrier Global , C.H. Robinson Worldwide, OKP Holdings, Ww Grainger Inc, Howmet Aerospace and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares
  • HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank
  • Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver
  • Carrier Global’s Localization & Dual Sourcing Strategy—Can It Outpace Global Disruptions?
  • C.H. Robinson Focusing On Global Expansion with Southeast Asia Trade Shift; What Lies Ahead?
  • Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation
  • W.W. Grainger Inc. Shields Profits with Bold Moves in Pricing, Imports, & Market Targeting!
  • Howmet Aerospace Fortifies Financial Resilience with Aggressive Tariff Mitigation Strategy; What’s Next?


HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KKR is selling 3.81 million shares (8.5% of outstanding shares) of HD Hyundai Marine Solution in a block deal sale.
  • The expected block deal sale price is 145,000 won to 148,000 won per share, which represent 7.96% to 9.83% discount to the closing price of 160,800 won on 22 May.
  • Once this block deal is completed, KKR’s remaining stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution will be reduced to 11% (4.94 million shares).

HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$410m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS).
  • KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had  tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024 and finally undertook a deal in Feb 2025.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

SENSEX Index Rebalance: Trent, Bharat Electronics to Replace Nestle, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas


Air Canada’s Odd-Lot Tender Offer: Potential Upside Amid CapEx Challenges and Transborder Revenue Declines

By Special Situation Investments

  • Air Canada is conducting a tender offer for ~8% of shares, prioritizing odd-lot holders, with potential upside.
  • The company plans significant CapEx for fleet modernization, impacting free cash flow and financial projections until 2028.
  • Air Canada’s valuation is low compared to peers, trading at 3.3x EBITDA, with a 54% EBITDA growth target by 2028.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Steady Delivery with Sustainability Emerging as a Key Driver

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY9/25 results met expectations, with the company’s diversified operations helping offset softness in Industrial Products and Life Science.
  • A key positive was the acceleration of growth in Sustainability, driven by green technology and energy solutions, which reinforces its potential as a core earnings driver.
  • Fine Chemicals remained resilient, backed by domestic demand for industrial rubber. 

Carrier Global’s Localization & Dual Sourcing Strategy—Can It Outpace Global Disruptions?

By Baptista Research

  • Carrier Global Corporation reported a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong results across various segments despite facing some challenges in certain areas.
  • The company, which specializes in HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions, provided a comprehensive view of its financial performance, including significant areas of growth and concern, setting the stage for the remainder of the year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

C.H. Robinson Focusing On Global Expansion with Southeast Asia Trade Shift; What Lies Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • C.H. Robinson delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, with significant progress on strategic initiatives aimed at improving market share and margins despite an unsteady freight market.
  • The company’s North American Surface Transportation (NAST) division reported better-than-market growth in truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, demonstrating an ability to adapt and gain market share.
  • In Global Forwarding, C.H. Robinson successfully won new business while optimizing expenses to enhance productivity, resulting in a 39% year-over-year increase in income from operations.

Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation

By Geoff Howie

  • In 2025, Singapore’s Industrials sector saw increased trading activity, with over one-third experiencing over 50% ADT growth.
  • ST Engineering led the STI in performance, supported by diversified revenue streams and investments in digital technologies.
  • OKP Holdings reported a 95% share price gain, driven by technology integration, productivity boosts, and geographical diversification.

W.W. Grainger Inc. Shields Profits with Bold Moves in Pricing, Imports, & Market Targeting!

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger’s first quarter of 2025 results reflect a performance largely in line with expectations, highlighting the environmental dynamics impacting the business.
  • Total company reported sales were up by 1.7% on a reported basis, equating to a 4.4% increase on a daily constant currency basis.
  • Operating margins were noted at a healthy 15.6%, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising by $0.24 to $9.86.

Howmet Aerospace Fortifies Financial Resilience with Aggressive Tariff Mitigation Strategy; What’s Next?

By Baptista Research

  • Howmet Aerospace’s first-quarter earnings in 2025 reflect both strengths and challenges for the company.
  • The quarter began with a solid performance across the board, with revenue reaching a record level and improving year over year by 6%.
  • The company’s operational efficiency contributed to this outcome, as evidenced by its EBITDA margin of 28.8% and operating margin of 25.3%, which increased by 500 basis points compared to the previous year.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Pony AI, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, VEON, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Liberty Media -Liberty For, Tuya Inc, Wolfspeed, MNTN and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning
  • Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch “Surge O1” With 3nm.
  • VEON (VEON US): Digital Momentum Builds as Kyivstar IPO and Fintech Unlocks Take Shape
  • Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung
  • Formula 1 CEO: Sport Evolution, Elite Drivers and Full-Speed Leadership
  • Tuya, Inc. – 1Q25 Revenue Up 21% and Gross Margin Up 70 Basis Points in a Roller Coaster Environment
  • Automotive Power SiC: The Bankruptcy of Wolfspeed
  • MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – Marketing IPO Meets Investor Eye; Jumps 65% on Day One


CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

Pony AI IPO Lockup – US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.
  • TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.
  • TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch “Surge O1” With 3nm.

By Patrick Liao

  • Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
  • Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
  • While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  

VEON (VEON US): Digital Momentum Builds as Kyivstar IPO and Fintech Unlocks Take Shape

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • VEON returned to billion-dollar quarterly revenue in 1Q25; EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY on strong digital execution.
  • Digital revenues rose 50% YoY, now 14.3% of group total.
  • Kyivstar IPO on track for 3Q25 at US$2.3bn valuation; fintech optionality in Bangladesh and Ukraine emerging.

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   
  • Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.
  • The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  

Formula 1 CEO: Sport Evolution, Elite Drivers and Full-Speed Leadership

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • F1 is evolving to be more than just a sport, focusing on entertainment and business development
  • The fan base is becoming younger and more diverse, with 40% women and 60% men, average age 35
  • F1 is balancing historic venues with new races, aiming for 24 races per season and considering new markets in Asia and Africa

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Tuya, Inc. – 1Q25 Revenue Up 21% and Gross Margin Up 70 Basis Points in a Roller Coaster Environment

By Water Tower Research

  • Tuya delivered a strong 1Q25, outperforming seasonal trends, with a record GAAP net profit of $11.0 million and a net margin of 14.8% (more than 20 percentage points higher Y/Y).
  • Non-GAAP net profit also surged to $19.3 million, with margins reaching an impressive 25.8%.
  • The company’s success reflects disciplined expense control, strong revenue momentum across all segments, and a growing emphasis on AI-driven solutions. 

Automotive Power SiC: The Bankruptcy of Wolfspeed

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Over past year the price of Silicon Carbide wafers has declined by 50-60%, leading to the bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. The Western media tends to blame Chinese over-capacity and price cuts. 
  • But all SiC firms have massively increased capacity: Infineon, Onsemi, STMicro. The vertical integration of the majors is also to blame: over-investments in a small market (rapidly growing, but small). 
  • Who benefits? Nominally the big integrated vendors Infineon, Onsemi, Rohm, STMicro – but Power SiC is a small fraction of their revenues.

MNTN Inc. (MNTN) – Marketing IPO Meets Investor Eye; Jumps 65% on Day One

By IPO Boutique

  • MNTN priced a full-size deal of 11.7mm shares at the high-end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $21.00 for a gain of 31.3% at first trade. 
  • The fireworks continued as the stock traded to a high of $26.88 before closing its opening session at $26.36 for a first day return of 65%.
  • The deal was considered multiple-times oversubscribed and our sources stated that the final deal finished north of 12-times oversubscribed.

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Most Read: GMO Internet, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Perseus Mining, Shanghai Runda Medical Tec-A, Welcia Holdings, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Soundwill Holdings, HD Hyundai Marine Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow
  • GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning
  • S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices
  • CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares


CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

By Brian Freitas

  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) – if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.
  • CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
  • The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.

GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

By Travis Lundy

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
  • In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
  • The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&P/ASX20 Index, S&P/ASX50 Index and S&P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index in June.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
  • While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period ended on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
  • There could be 5 changes in June where passive trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 1-4x ADV in the forecast deletes.
  • A long adds/ short deletes trade has gone nowhere in the last 6-7 months, and the volatility of the trade has reduced even further in the last couple of months.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) AGMs to elect directors and approve the share exchange agreement to merge the two. 
  • 10% Tsuruha shareholder Orbis objects to the merger ratio AND the later tender whereby Aeon goes to 51%, saying everything is underpriced. ISS/GlassLewis recommend voting against the merger.
  • I haven’t seen the proxy reports but I’ve done the math. Investors/arbs should look at the possibilities/probabilities and understand what dependencies exist. Shareholders are not helpless, no matter the outcome.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close today, it was announced that KKR is selling 3.81 million shares (8.5% of outstanding shares) of HD Hyundai Marine Solution in a block deal sale.
  • The expected block deal sale price is 145,000 won to 148,000 won per share, which represent 7.96% to 9.83% discount to the closing price of 160,800 won on 22 May.
  • Once this block deal is completed, KKR’s remaining stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution will be reduced to 11% (4.94 million shares).

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,876m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, margin trading position as multiples of ADT.
  • We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks
  • Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi’s
  • HK & China Strategy: Potential Gainers of Rmb Appreciation Against USD
  • Japan Morning Connection: Markets Creaking Under the Weight of Poor Demand for US Bonds
  • Special Report: Key Takeaways from Visiting Taiwan – MAY 21, 2025
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CGBS
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly GenAI Coming for the Professions…
  • Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure


Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • A weak 20-year Treasury auction spooked markets; Stocks tumbled as the Dow fell 800 points
  • Orbis Investments increased its stake in Tsuruha Holdings to 10.29%; opposes Tsuruha’s planned business integration with Welcia
  • Wolfspeed Stock down over 60% as prepares for bankruptcy. Potential impact on wafer supply to Renesas?

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi’s

By The Circuit

  • Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%
  • US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges
  • Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


HK & China Strategy: Potential Gainers of Rmb Appreciation Against USD

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Creaking Under the Weight of Poor Demand for US Bonds

By Andrew Jackson

  • Tech and semis sharply lower as investors go risk off, although Coreweave bucks the trend to jump another 19%.
  • Infineon buoyed sentiment for power semi’s somewhat after announcing tie up with NVDA for HVDC data center systems.
  • Expect a rough ride for Home builders and construction related plays such as Sumitomo Forestry and Shin Etsu.

Special Report: Key Takeaways from Visiting Taiwan – MAY 21, 2025

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • In early May, we had the opportunity to meet with executives from leading companies in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
  • We found that investment in technology research and development is a common key factor behind their success, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve and achieve superior profitability compared to their peers.
  • Moreover, having a diversified production base gives these companies the flexibility to withstand severe negative impacts from trade conflicts. 

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CGBS

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 5.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 6.8%).
  • Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 10.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 5.4%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.7% of the index) was up 6.9%.
  • Top 10 Performers: FL, AEVA, SPI, MVST, ACHR, LIS, SMR, TGEN, CLIR, TPIC

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly GenAI Coming for the Professions…

By Water Tower Research

  • The tariff pause that refreshes? The administration’s decision to pause some tariffs during negotiations helped the broader market and residential furnishings stocks, but not the office furniture or home goods retailers.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 1.8% and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 1.5%, while the residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index rose 1.1%. The large-cap indices were up 2.0%, while the R2K rose 1.0%.
  • Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee. References to GenAI in the press and social media continue to grow rapidly (1), as shown in Figure 1

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

By Water Tower Research

  • Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.
  • President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.
  • Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.

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Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount
  • Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory
  • Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play
  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
  • Pre-IPO Ab&B Bio-Tech: Commercialization May Be Lower than Expected, Thereby Dragging Down Valuation


Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount

By Douglas Kim

  • On 21 May, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that the rights offering price increased to 684,000 won (up 26.9% from 539,000 won previously) due to recent increase in price.
  • Due to the higher rights offering price, the scale of the capital raise has increased from 2.3 trillion won previously to 2.9 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).
  • Issue price is determined by applying a 15% discount rate to the one-month weighted arithmetic average price, one-week weighted arithmetic average  price, and the closing price on the base date.

Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Chery Auto, one of China’s oldest state-owned carmakers and #2 domestic passenger vehicle brand, plans to raise more than $1B in its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
  • The company has been China’s top vehicle exporter for 22 consecutive years since 2003. The automaker was founded in 1997 Mr. Yin Tongyue, Chairman & President of Chery Auto.
  • Chery Auto is an extremely ambitious company with strong overseas presence. The biggest revenue growth driver will be higher NEV sales in the coming years, in my view.

Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play

By Nicholas Tan

  • Xiamen Hithium (2190977D CH)  is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • It is a leading global new energy technology company providing all-round energy storage solutions centred around energy storage batteries and systems.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN)  (KEL) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • KEL is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors. 
  • As per F&S report, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Pre-IPO Ab&B Bio-Tech: Commercialization May Be Lower than Expected, Thereby Dragging Down Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The investment logic of vaccine companies is different from that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on blockbuster vaccine varieties.
  • Commercialization of Ab&B’s vaccines could face uncertainties due to fierce competition/price war/slower R&D progress. Some Class II vaccines could be converted to Class I vaccines. Breakthrough point lies in internationalization. 
  • After Series B financing, post-money valuation reached RMB4.2 billion. Since CanSino’s pipelines are either global innovative, or potential best-in-class or first-in-class in China, Ab&B’s valuation should be lower than CanSino.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
  • CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse
  • [Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
  • Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June
  • Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In
  • ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer
  • Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles


[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
  • Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
  • I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse

By Arun George

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette asserts that a material adverse change has occurred due to its trading performance, litigation and FDA untitled letter. 
  • Cosette has not quantified the impact, and Mayne disputes the assertion. Mayne’s trading performance is likely the largest contributor to Cosette’s MAC-related claims. 
  • Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the likely outcome is a scheme termination.

[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500. 
  • Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched. 
  • The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.

Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung Biologics is spinning off Samsung Bio Holdings, transferring full Samsung Bioepis shares; shareholders keep stakes in both, with an expected 70:30 split favoring Biologics.
  • Post-Split, major shareholders keep stakes; they’ll transfer Biologics shares to Bio Holdings, which becomes parent owning 74.34% Biologics and 100% Bioepis, meeting holding company rules.
  • Samsung C&T’s restructuring carves out Biologics into a holdco, lowering valuation to avoid forced holding company conversion and enabling future Samsung Electronics share acquisition.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo

By Arun George

  • The Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) Board supports Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) JPY5,500 offer, but has shifted its recommendation from tendering to a neutral stance. 
  • The Board maintains that it is not yet in a position to provide an opinion on Yageo’s JPY6,200 offer due to concerns on feasibility and synergies. 
  • Minebea hopes Yageo will withdraw due to its failure to secure regulatory approvals. If Yageo secures the required approvals, Minebea will actively consider measures.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$13.00 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 13 June. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
  • This is a done deal due to the substantial irrevocables. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/9.12%.

Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the September review looming, base case is NXT holds steady for now, then starts cutting volume around mid-July — a move that could trigger dislocations in NXT-heavy names.
  • In theory, SOR shifts retail flow from NXT to KRX seamlessly—but if retail floods in fast, KRX’s institution-heavy book might struggle, causing depth issues or delayed fills.
  • The attached Excel shows NXT volume share by ticker — a useful read on names heavily reliant on NXT ahead of July caps, where pressure points may start to emerge.

ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 4th December 2024, the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
  • There was a raft of pre-cons, however processing went like clockwork, and all were satisfied by the 15th May.  
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 13th June, and payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.

Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PUSU deadline looms on May 30, giving Corpay limited time to submit a firm bid or walk away—raising the stakes for investors monitoring deal certainty and potential upside.
  • Alpha’s valuation remains compelling, with a blended takeover value of ~3,795p vs. a current share price of 3,050p, implying ~24% upside on deal completion.
  • Synergies estimated at ~99p per share could lift deal terms; I see a 65% probability of a formal bid, recommending accumulation around 3,000p for event-driven investors.

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