Daily Briefs

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.
Relevant notes – JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair.

JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share.
Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO.

Chery Automobile IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Chery Automobile is getting ready to complete an IPO in Hong Kong in the coming months. The company could raise up to US$1 billion in this IPO.
Chery Auto is the second largest automaker in China and the 11th largest auto company globally. The valuation of Chery Auto could be more than 100 billion yuan (US$14 billion).
Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.

Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

We Doctor’s business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
We Doctor’s Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.

Goertek Pre-IPO: Too Reliant on Apple

By Nicholas Tan

Goertek Microelectronics (1961589D CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a subsidiary of Goertek Inc A (002241 CH) , and is a world-leading provider of smart sensing interaction solutions.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance

PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
We look at the difference between previous filing and current PHIP filing. We see massive delays which don’t position the company well for the listing.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising
Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising

Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a new Shareholder Benefit Program (株主優待 or kabunushiyutai). Often these programs are designed to give small unknown companies a way to build shareholder awareness/loyalty.
Toyota, needless to say, is not a small, unknown company building awareness. So this is a bribe or inducement to own shares or get people to use higher value product.
This is not a great look, and not great for shareholders. It smells of Toyota trying to buy votes as crossholders sell. But below we look at the math.

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?

By Sanghyun Park

If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
161 new CGRs were filed in February 2025. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
THE BIG NEWS: The “Document 3” (linked below) of the TSE’s 20th Council Meeting 18 Feb is worth reading carefully. This will set the stage for more takeover fun.

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.
BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges.
If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final.
What now? Back in OneConnect’s boards’ court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn’t follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Credit: Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

Melco Resorts and Entertainment’s Q4/24 results remained soft, owing to a decline in the EBITDA margin, and despite GGR outperforming that of peers.
In addition, the company’s debt reduction and deleveraging continued to lag peers, as FCF generation was constrained by the soft earnings, ongoing share repurchases, as well as capex requirements (including for the development project in Sri Lanka).

Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry prices.
The company generated good FCF, which we note positively was mostly used for debt repayment.
Leverage was halved on the back of lower debt and higher earnings.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo
In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).
Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).

New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

New World Development’s (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak.
The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.
Moreover, the underlying business performance remained soft, as operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 18% y-o-y.

Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) is a vertically integrated state-owned electricity utility responsible for generating, transmitting and distributing power in Indonesia. The company dominates Indonesia’s upstream power generation sector, and holds a monopolistic position in the country’s electricity transmission and distribution networks. It is the sole retail provider of electricity to end-consumers. PLN is 100% owned by the Indonesian government.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Baidu Inc.: When Will Its Efforts Towards Generative AI and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Baidu Inc.: When Will Its Efforts Towards Generative AI
Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK) – A Milestone Year with Strong Growth and Expanding Opportunities
India’s Worst Accounting Scandals
MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?
Ever-Vigilant CRISIL, India Rating Downgrade Firm – After Default
Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert
Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Mar-2025): HP cuts 2k jobs, offshores China manufacturing for NA by 4Q25
LGND: First Steps into Cell & Gene Therapy
Genuine Parts Company: A Closer Look at Its Earnings Cadence & Market Conditions!

Baidu Inc.: When Will Its Efforts Towards Generative AI

By Baptista Research

Baidu’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results reveal a company navigating both challenges and opportunities, driven by its ongoing transformation into an AI-centric entity.
The reported total revenues for the fourth quarter amounted to RMB 34.1 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, while full-year revenues were down by 1%, at RMB 133.1 billion.
Despite these slight declines, Baidu Core’s revenue performance was stable, increasing by 1% for both the fourth quarter and full year.

Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK) – A Milestone Year with Strong Growth and Expanding Opportunities

By Pyramids and Pagodas

Plover Bay Technologies (1523.HK , “Plover Bay”) with a market cap of approximately USD 739 million, experienced another stellar year with its FY24A annual results, showcasing a notable 24% revenue increase, exceeding the USD 100 million threshold (also known as the “valley of death ”) to reach USD 117 million, while also realizing a 36% YoY growth in net profit, amounting to USD 38 million.
This success is complemented by strategic partnerships, and ongoing innovation.
With deepening collaborations, an expanding product line-up, and an emphasis on recurring revenues, Plover Bay is well-positioned for sustained growth in 2025 and beyond.

India’s Worst Accounting Scandals

By Mark Jolley

Learn about India’s worst accounting fraud, including Yes Bank, Satyam Computer, Kingfisher and others in this report.
Misappropriation features prominently in these scandals, in addition to fraudulent reporting and corporate governance failure.
Siphoning of funds from bank loans, in particular, has been a common feature of Indian corporate malfeasance.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK): What to Do Now?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group (2097 HK) has a successful IPO in Hong Kong, with share price surged 43.2%. We will trim from here and will not buy at the current level.
Our forecasts call for a decent 20.8% and 17.6% earnings growth for FY25 and FY26, putting it on RICH PERs of 19.1x for FY25 and 16.3x for FY26.
The Chinese tea sector has average PERs of 12.4x and 10.5x, suggesting MIXUE’s leadership is well reflected in the over 50% premium, and the safety margin has significantly narrowed.

Ever-Vigilant CRISIL, India Rating Downgrade Firm – After Default

By Hemindra Hazari

Crisil Ltd (CRISIL IN) and India Rating Downgrade AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) to ‘D’ from “A/Stable’ post a default
Rating agencies exist to anticipate events such as defaults and not react after being informed of a default
Rating agencies ignored poor fundamentals of AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN) in 2QFY2025 results which clearly and publicly revealed deteriorating cash flows and a high-risk financial strategy

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Good News from Positive Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Shenzhen International (152 HK)‘s FY24 net profit will range at HK$2.8-3.1bn (53-63% growth YoY), boosted by a HK$2.3bn gain from South China Logistics Park Transformation.
Extrapolating this gain to the whole land plot will generate a profit of HK$11.4bn, or 66% of the current market capitalisation. The stock is significantly undervalued at 0.49x P/B.
At an assumed 50% payout ratio, SZI’s yield is at 9%. Moreover, with stable profit expected for FY25 and FY26, the yield will be maintained for the next two years.

Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?

By Baptista Research

Arista Networks’ results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments.
The company reported revenue of $1.93 billion for the quarter, contributing to an annual growth of approximately 19.5%, surpassing its initial forecast of 10-12% amidst robust AI-related demand.
This performance helped achieve a non-GAAP operating margin of 47.5%, marking a solid financial standing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (04-Mar-2025): HP cuts 2k jobs, offshores China manufacturing for NA by 4Q25

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

HP plans to cut 2,000 jobs and shift 90% of its manufacturing from China to North America by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Hushan successfully transforms car door handles into profitable aftermarket products, carving out a niche in the market.
IBM closes its research facility in China and lays off 1,800 employees, while companies like Jabil, Aequs, and Tata export Indian-made Apple components to China and Vietnam.

LGND: First Steps into Cell & Gene Therapy

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Ligand Pharmaceuticals holds a portfolio of revenue, royalty & milestone generating assets that have been vetted by its internal investment team.
Ligand considers individual biopharmaceutical products, platforms, companies & income streams in its opportunity set.
It targets late-stage and commercial income-producing assets when making investments.

Genuine Parts Company: A Closer Look at Its Earnings Cadence & Market Conditions!

By Baptista Research

Genuine Parts Company reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ending 2024, revealing a mixed set of results amidst challenging market conditions.
The company’s total sales for 2024 were $23.5 billion, representing a growth of 1.7% compared to the previous year.
This growth was bolstered by strategic acquisitions which contributed 260 basis points but was offset by weaker market conditions, particularly in the industrial segment.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame
Global Commodities: Copper — From tariffs to tightness
EA Inflation Drift And Skew Survives
How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update
U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Gains for Fifth Straight Week, First Since May 2022
Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes
Helixtap China Report: Higher Raw Material Costs Drive Rubber Market Recovery; Expectation Of Demand Revival
2025 Global Investment Strategy
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Arwana, BFI Finance Indonesia, and Singapore Banks

Steno Signals #187 – Remember August & September 2024? Tariffs are to blame

By Andreas Steno

Friday’s bizarre scenes in the Oval Office will take some time to digest for all involved counterparties.
I don’t feel in a position to judge either side, but I will use this analysis to assess the ramifications of the event.
As a disclaimer, remember that I am European!Trump’s argument that the U.S. pays too much to the rest of the world is, in many ways, entirely correct—but also quite banal.

Global Commodities: Copper — From tariffs to tightness

By At Any Rate

Base metals, particularly copper, are sensitive to China specific tariffs, leading to a rise in copper prices in early 2025
Near term market outlook is cautious due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices potentially pulling back towards $9,000 per ton
Long term outlook for copper market tightening in 2025 due to slowing mine supply growth and modest deceleration in global demand growth, with potential risks in X Chinese demand.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EA Inflation Drift And Skew Survives

By Phil Rush

Euro area inflation exceeded consensus expectations again in February, despite an ongoing drift up in forecasts, although the 2.4% outcome precisely matched our call.
ECB easing anticipated a drop below target by now, so its disappointment should exceed any relief at the 0.1pp slowing, driven by French energy bills, after four straight rises.
Wage inflation remains too fast to sustainably achieve the target, which should urge the ECB to slow its easing after cutting on 6 March. We still see June as the last rate cut.

How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update

By The Commodity Report

How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.
From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.
During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again.

U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Gains for Fifth Straight Week, First Since May 2022

By Suhas Reddy

U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by one for the week ending 28/Feb, marking the fifth straight weekly gain and bringing the total to 593.
For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. oil production slightly rose to 13.50 million bpd from 13.49 million bpd last week.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 2 to 486, while gas rigs rose by 3 to 102. Rig count in the Permian rose by one to 305.

Global FX and Rates: US moderation vs. tariffs tunes

By At Any Rate

Term premium in US macro picture and interest rates has fallen significantly over the past month
Treasury Secretary’s comments indicating no changes in coupon auction sizes or debt profile have impacted term premium
Recent concerns about weakening growth have led to market pricing in more Fed rate cuts, despite strong labor market and potential upside risks to inflation forecast

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Helixtap China Report: Higher Raw Material Costs Drive Rubber Market Recovery; Expectation Of Demand Revival

By Arusha Das

Chinese buying concentrated on warehouse cargoes
Arbitrage narrows for international cargoes on wintering
Gradual return of the tire makers expected

2025 Global Investment Strategy

By Sharmila Whelan

Last year 70% of the calls made money. This year we make another 43 investment recommendations, global, US, Europe, Japan and 8 Asian countries.
Our prediction that Bitcoin will become a US reserve asset under Trump is already playing out.
Stock market volatility will persist, with diverging performance and subdued gains compared with 2024. Our top picks are the US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and India and selectively China.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Arwana, BFI Finance Indonesia, and Singapore Banks

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ), Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP) and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP).
Brian Freitas published on Grab Holdings and Sea Ltd (SE US) and increasing foreign holdings, whilst Daniel Tabbush revisits Singapore Banks, with a further insight on the tech sector in Singapore.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.

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Mar 04

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, BYD, Toyota Motor, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, JX Advanced Metals, MS&AD Insurance, Tokyo Metro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Methodology Changes & Some Surprises
BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well
BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up
Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising
Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (6693 HK) IPO: H-Share Offering Details & Index Inclusion
Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?
JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive
Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For “The Big April Basket” 2025

7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More

The MBO is off. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn’t surprising.
7&i says they “continue to engage constructively with ACT and alternate proposals but news articles suggest that almost 6mos after proposing an NDA, ACT still haven’t had access to financials.
The shares are off hard today to a level below where ACT’s first bid was considered “not even worth discussing”. There will be questions at the AGM and before.

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Methodology Changes & Some Surprises

There are 3 constituent changes for the STAR50 INDEX and 6 changes for the STAR100 Index at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 14 March.
The last-minute methodology change could lead to under/over positioning on some names and those stocks could move the most over the next few days.
Performance has been mixed in the changes to the STAR50 INDEX but the outright adds have continued to outperform the outright deletes for the STAR100 Index.

BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well

BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Continuing to Power Up

Overnight, BYD (1211 HK) has announced a placement of 118m shares at a price range of HK$333-345/share that could raise up to HK$40.7bn (US$5.2bn).
The Pink Sheets listing for BYD (BYDDY.PK) closed at US$87.1/share and traded US$155m for the day. That close implies an open of HK$338.7/share for BYD, middle of the placement range.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers later this week while buying from Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trackers will come in April.

Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising

Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a new Shareholder Benefit Program (株主優待 or kabunushiyutai). Often these programs are designed to give small unknown companies a way to build shareholder awareness/loyalty.
Toyota, needless to say, is not a small, unknown company building awareness. So this is a bribe or inducement to own shares or get people to use higher value product.
This is not a great look, and not great for shareholders. It smells of Toyota trying to buy votes as crossholders sell. But below we look at the math.

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (6693 HK) IPO: H-Share Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH) has launched an H-share offering that could raise up to US$554m if the offer size adjustment option and overallocation option are both exercised.
The price range of HK$13.72-HK$15.83/share is a discount of 18.7-29.5% to the A-shares and between 17-26% of the offering will be allocated to cornerstone investors.
The small issue size will result in the stock staying out the global indices for the foreseeable future. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in April.

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?

By Sanghyun Park

If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
161 new CGRs were filed in February 2025. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
THE BIG NEWS: The “Document 3” (linked below) of the TSE’s 20th Council Meeting 18 Feb is worth reading carefully. This will set the stage for more takeover fun.

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Expectations For “The Big April Basket” 2025

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In the TOPIX Index, some “low liquidity” names carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will see index inflows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2025 and their flow implications.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.
BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn’t follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Mar 04

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Gemvax & Kael and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?

By Sanghyun Park

If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Moves Lead to Changes in Forecast

With the averaging period for the April rebalance commencing today, we forecast 2 changes for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.65-1x ADV to buy in the adds and between 0.5-1.7x ADV to sell in the deletes.
The big rally has taken Gemvax & Kael into inclusion zone while underperformance leads to ISC Co and Techwing dropping out of inclusion zone.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, CDL Hospitality Trusts, DBS, Sheng Siong, Yanlord Land and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Helixtap China Report: Higher Raw Material Costs Drive Rubber Market Recovery; Expectation Of Demand Revival
REIT Watch – Hospitality S-REITs focus on active portfolio management to drive growth
Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End
Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP): Miss on Q4 2024/But Strong Pipeline Addition
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Helixtap China Report: Higher Raw Material Costs Drive Rubber Market Recovery; Expectation Of Demand Revival

By Arusha Das

Chinese buying concentrated on warehouse cargoes
Arbitrage narrows for international cargoes on wintering
Gradual return of the tire makers expected

REIT Watch – Hospitality S-REITs focus on active portfolio management to drive growth

By Geoff Howie

CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s H2 2024 gross profit rose 8% to S$198.0 million, with revenue up 6% to S$432.2 million.
Far East Hospitality Trust’s H2 2024 gross revenue and net property income both increased 0.2% to S$54.9 million and S$49.9 million.
CDL Hospitality Trusts’ DPS declined 11.9% in H2 2024, despite growth in RevPar for most portfolio markets.

Buybacks Surge as Earnings Season Nears End

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow of S$265 million from Feb 21-27, 2025.
DBS Group Holdings led share buybacks with 350,000 shares at S$46.73 each; total buybacks amounted to S$31,062,634.
Wilmar International’s FY24 core net profit declined 26% to US$1.16 billion, with sales volume growth in most divisions.

Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP): Miss on Q4 2024/But Strong Pipeline Addition

By Sameer Taneja

Sheng Siong (SSG SP) posted stable FY24 results, with revenue/profit increasing by 4.5%/ 3.1% YoY; however, Q4 2024 saw revenue/profit +6%/- 14% YoY due to higher SG&A.
The company opened two stores in 2025 YTD to take the store count in Singapore to 77. There are eight more tenders for stores released by HDB.
The stock trades at 17.8x FY24 PE, with 15% of the market cap in cash and a 3.9% dividend yield.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia