Category

Daily Briefs

Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Financials: Suntec REIT, Affirm Holdings , Bitcoin, Kolte Patil Developers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang’s Offer Now Open
  • Affirm Holdings Inc.: Dealing With Funding Strategy Vulnerabilities & 4 Other Challenges! – Major Drivers
  • Crypto Crisp: What’s with the U.S. Fed?
  • Kolte Patil: On Track as Per FY25 Guidance

Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang’s Offer Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 5th December, Gordan Tang (& his wife Celine) acquired 2.14% in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
  • This is appears to be a technical Offer. The Offer price is S$1.16/share against a S$1.17/share undisturbed price. Timing, however, IS curious after ESR Group (1821 HK)‘s recent Offer.
  • The Offer Doc is now out and shareholders can tender. At S$1.18/share as I type, zero tendering should occur. The Offer closes on the 20 January, unless extended.

Affirm Holdings Inc.: Dealing With Funding Strategy Vulnerabilities & 4 Other Challenges! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Affirm Holdings, Inc. recently provided an update on its fiscal first-quarter performance for 2025, sharing various insights regarding its current operations and strategic direction.
  • Throughout the session led by Founder and CEO Max Levchin, as well as other key executives, the company highlighted strong financial metrics, ongoing initiatives, and future considerations, all of which culminated in both opportunities and challenges for investors assessing its market potentials and risks.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Crypto Crisp: What’s with the U.S. Fed?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The past week was notably eventful, marked by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates for the U.S. Dollar by 25 basis points.
  • However, the Fed struck a hawkish tone for the coming year, signaling fewer interest rate cuts than the market had anticipated.
  • This shift unsettled investors, with the crypto market bearing the brunt of the reaction.

Kolte Patil: On Track as Per FY25 Guidance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Kolte Patil reported a decent Q2FY25 with highest ever quarterly pre-sales of INR 770cr, a growth of 22% YoY. Pre-sales volume corresponding to this was 1.03 MSF (Million Square Feet).
  • Notably, demand for premium projects has been strong. For H1FY25, 30% of pre-sales has come from 24K luxury segment. This compares to 12% in FY22.
  • Year-To-Date, new launch activity has been decent with the launch of 2.2 MSF of saleable area. This includes Kolte Patil’s entry in Navi Mumbai with a project launch in Vashi. 

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Pro Medicus Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU): Strong FY24 Result; Starts FY25 With Record Breaking Contract Win

Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU): Strong FY24 Result; Starts FY25 With Record Breaking Contract Win

By Tina Banerjee

  • Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU) reported strong performance in FY24, with revenue increasing 29% YoY to A$162M. Net profit grew at a faster pace of 37% YoY to A$83M.
  • At the end of FY24, full contracted revenue increased to A$624M over the next five years from A$468M in FY23, laying the foundation for continued growth in FY25 and beyond.
  • In November, PME signed a A$330M, 10-year contract with Trinity Health. The contract is the largest ever for Pro Medicus and Trinity is the first customer with a national footprint.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief ESG: Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization?
  • New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

Is the High Volatility of Japanese Equities Only Due to Their Small Market Capitalization?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In addition to many manufacturing companies that are sensitive to economic cycles, TSE is also characterized by many companies with sluggish operating cash flow growth.
  • Low interest rates in Japan can also be a factor in high volatility. As the volatility of low interest rates increases, corporate value volatility is likely to increase as well.
  • Some overseas investors pay attention to the equity spread over JGB yields. As the risk of rising interest rates in Japan increases, they are likely to unwind their futures positions.

New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

By Douglas Kim

  • Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports. 
  • However, POSCO International’s plan is much better. POSCO International plans to provide total shareholder returns of 50% which is more than double of its previous total shareholder return plan.
  • This sharp increase in shareholder returns is likely to lead to share outperformance of POSCO International relative to the market in the next several months. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: India’s Nuclear Power Boom: A 2.7x Growth Story and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report: India’s Nuclear Power Boom: A 2.7x Growth Story
  • Ohayo Japan | Santa Rally: Honda Mega Buy Back
  • Singapore Market Roundup (23-Dec-2024): OCBC lowers SingPost value after exec exits.
  • Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025
  • #73 India Insight: Iron Ore Taxed, Waaree’s 2000 Cr Investments in EV Batteries, Adani’s Acquisition

Thematic Report: India’s Nuclear Power Boom: A 2.7x Growth Story

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s nuclear power capacity is projected to surge 2.7 times by 2031, reaching 22.3 GW and creating a lucrative investment landscape. 
  • This expansion will unlock opportunities for companies like Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL IN), Walchandnagar Industries (WI IN), and Hindustan Construction Co (HCC IN) in manufacturing, construction, and auxiliary services. 
  • The rollout of 50 Bharat Small Reactors (BSRs) presents a particularly enticing prospect with a projected investment of Rs. 2,00,000 Crore.

Ohayo Japan | Santa Rally: Honda Mega Buy Back

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks climbed Monday to kick off a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by strong gains in technology
  • Trading remained light and is expected to stay muted with early closure Tuesday and markets closed Christmas Day.
  • Honda Motor plans to conduct a large-scale share buyback of up to ¥1.1 trillion (24% of issued shares) over the next one year.

Singapore Market Roundup (23-Dec-2024): OCBC lowers SingPost value after exec exits.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • OCBC lowers SingPost fair value following departures of CEO and CFO, indicating concerns about company’s leadership stability.
  • DBS supports CDLHT’s expansion into long-stay lodging by acquiring Liverpool PBSA, highlighting growth potential in this sector.
  • DBS applauds OUE REIT’s sale of Shanghai property, considering it a strategic move to optimize portfolio and maximize returns.

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

By The Circuit

  • Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competition
  • Analysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia’s market dominance and revenue growth
  • Consideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

#73 India Insight: Iron Ore Taxed, Waaree’s 2000 Cr Investments in EV Batteries, Adani’s Acquisition

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Karnataka’s proposed mineral tax will significantly impact iron ore miners and the steel industry, potentially raising production costs and impacting profitability. 
  • Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) recent ₹10,000 crore order for K9 Vajra-T artillery platforms signifies the company’s strength in the defense sector. 
  • Waaree Energies (0656504D IN) is accelerating India’s renewable energy goals with strategic investments in electrolyzer, lithium-ion storage, and inverter solutions. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback
  • Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting
  • [Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
  • VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal
  • GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play
  • LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025… 
  • Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback – up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
  • Assuming the stock pops, it is probably “only” worth 15-18%, but that’s still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December. 
  • The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate. 
  • Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) – Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami’s selling.
  • Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December. 
  • I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected. 

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

By John Ley

  • All 5 trading days of the past week saw non-volatile price declines but with implied vols still ticking higher leaving historic vol and implied vol moving in opposite directions.
  • Trading activity focused on Puts, 59.5% of all options trades were Puts last week
  • Postions being covered into market weakness as seen from large decrease in open interest (60% of the decline was Puts).

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 16 – 20

By John Ley

  • Communication Services had 39% of single stock option volumes vs only 22% of the open interest highlighting short expiry / speculative nature of trading.
  • Tencent and Baidu heading in opposite directions – Baidu vol on the inexpensive side vs Tencent vol.
  • Xiaomi one of only 2 optionable names trading at 52-week high (Sunny optical being the other).

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

By John Ley

  • Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
  • Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
  • Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.

VCredit (2003 HK): Ma Does Makes His Move. But Nothing To Shout About

By David Blennerhassett

  • When VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I expected an Offer from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman.
  • Well, we do have an Offer. Ma acquired 4.19% via two SPAs, lifting his stake to 44.04%. Stephen Liu (an ED) also acquired 1.43% via an SPA.
  • As Ma, Liu, and other parties, are presumed to be acting in concert, an unconditional MGO is triggered. But at HK$1.80/share, a 9.09% discount to undisturbed.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). 
  • The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. 
  • The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.

GA Pack (468 HK): The State of Play

By Arun George

  • On 20 December, Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) satisfied the precondition for its Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) offer. The offer document will be despatched by 27 December.
  • Analysing the EGM vote on 18 October suggests that the 50% minimum acceptance condition will be met if no competing management offer is made. 
  • Management will oppose the offer, but the last EGM protest votes suggest that many minorities will ignore management. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 2.3%/25.3%.

LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
  • As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.
  • Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea
  • Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech
  • Inside Arbitrage’s Asif Suria shares his thesis on insider purchases at Pebblebrook $PEB
  • Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus’s Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range
  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Break-Even Achieved in 1QFY25, Strong Demand to Persist in Coming Quarters
  • Information Services Corp (ISV.) – Monday, Sep 23, 2024
  • MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates

China Consumption Weekly (16 Dec 2024): Alibaba, Meituan, Mixue, Green Tea

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba sells 100% equities in Intime Department Store to Youngor.
  • Meituan plans to shorten delivery workers’ work hours due to sudden death cases.
  • Mixue, the lowest price fresh drink provider, began to raise its prices.

Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron’s Latest Outlook Disappoints & Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix & Nanya Tech Has Worked However
  • Smartphone AI Insights — On-Device Local Search & Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs
  • Conclusion — Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade

Inside Arbitrage’s Asif Suria shares his thesis on insider purchases at Pebblebrook $PEB

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Insiders are selling more than buying, especially in the technology sector
  • Spin-offs like Western Digital and Lionsgate Studios are of interest to insiders
  • Public Brook is a hotel company where insiders are buying stock and preferred shares, signaling potential value unlocking opportunities. Insiders are expected to start returning capital to shareholders, but the question remains if they will follow through.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Isetan Shinjuku to Hit ¥424 Billion

By Michael Causton

  • Isetan-Mitsukoshi has gone from being the most cautious forecaster among the big department store retailers to the most optimistic.
  • This is largely on the back of previously unimaginable sales records at its main stores, especially Isetan Shinjuku.
  • All of which is bringing in piles of profit, with projections of exceeding its previous average profit by four times.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus’s Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan’s Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?
  • Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech 
  • Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks — A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai’s EV Ambitions Remain High

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TSMC’s new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.
  • Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India’s semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.
  • China’s chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
  • UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
  • ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Break-Even Achieved in 1QFY25, Strong Demand to Persist in Coming Quarters

By Tina Banerjee

  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 80% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY25 and returned to profitability with a net profit of RM5M.
  • With robust demand outlook, Top Glove expects the ASP to further strengthen. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26 from 10% now.
  • Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.

Information Services Corp (ISV.) – Monday, Sep 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Information Services Corporation (TSX:ISV) is a technology services provider in Canada, founded in 2000 to manage registries in Saskatchewan
  • Strong Q2 results reported, market capitalization of CAD 530 million
  • Ambitious plan for expansion, operates in a high-quality “monopoly” business with Registry Operations accounting for 70% of EBITDA

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates

By Water Tower Research

  • MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
  • We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
  • In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: The biggest pushback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: The biggest pushback
  • EM Fixed Income: ‘Tis the Season for Volatility
  • Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner
  • Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?
  • Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
  • Infrastructure mini-series Ep 2: The Low-Carbon Transition: A $100 Trillion Infrastructure Opport…
  • Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities
  • Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality
  • The Week That Was That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – CP Axtra’s Gaff, Berli Jucker, and ITMG’s Value
  • Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

Global Commodities: The biggest pushback

By At Any Rate

  • Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
  • Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
  • Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: ‘Tis the Season for Volatility

By At Any Rate

  • The discussion focused on the importance of politics over economics for emerging markets in 2025, with a specific emphasis on fiscal trajectories.
  • Lessons learned include the need to expand imagination of possible scenarios, the impact of specific country situations on returns, and the caution against following consensus trades.
  • Market outlook for early 2025 is expected to be choppy and driven by policy announcements, with a key event being the US Inauguration Day on January 20th leading to potential market adjustments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
  • VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
  • Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from me! This will be the last update before the festive season, and I hope you will have a relaxed and enjoyable time with your loved ones.
  • It has been a big year for me personally with the launch of Asgard-Steno Global Macro.
  • Despite Powell pulling the rug from under the Christmas rally, we are off to a decent start and expect to deliver strong returns in choppy markets in 2025, where the macro direction will be challenged by several factors.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Happy Friday! Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro.
  • These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you.
  • While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating.

Infrastructure mini-series Ep 2: The Low-Carbon Transition: A $100 Trillion Infrastructure Opport…

By The Bid

  • Global transition to low carbon economy discussed in the second episode of the Infrastructure miniseries
  • Key areas of investment include electrification, renewable power plants, electric vehicle charging stations, and clean fuels
  • Importance of public and private investment in infrastructure to enable energy transition and decarbonization, with a focus on long-term growth opportunities like data centers and mining infrastructure

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

By The Commodity Report

  • While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
  • The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
  • FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

By Suhas Reddy

  • Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
  • Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
  • The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

The Week That Was That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – CP Axtra’s Gaff, Berli Jucker, and ITMG’s Value

By Angus Mackintosh

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

By At Any Rate

  • Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
  • Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
  • Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, LG CNS, Korea Zinc, SAMSUNG KODEX KOREA Value-Up ETF, Posco International Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20
  • LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying
  • Korea Zinc: Cumulative Voting System and 10 to 1 Stock Split
  • Behind the Scenes of KRX Value-Up Index Special Rebalancing: What It Means for Flow Dynamics
  • New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 16 – 20

By John Ley

  • Kospi is now off 20% from its 52-week highs. Historic vols are picking up and implieds looking like good value given market dynamics.
  • Hedging increased with broad based positioning in Puts across out-of-the-money strikes.
  • Heavier volume in Puts with 53.2% of added open interest being Puts.

LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
  • As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.
  • Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.

Korea Zinc: Cumulative Voting System and 10 to 1 Stock Split

By Douglas Kim

  • Chairman Choi has proposed a cumulative voting system which is one of the agenda items to be discussed and voted upon at the EGM on 23 January. 
  • There is likely to be continued uncertainty about proxy voting, including whether or not Korea Zinc could use cumulative voting system for Chairman Choi to retain control of the company. 
  • On 23 December, Korea Zinc (010130 KS) announced that it will propose a 10 to 1 stock split on the next EGM scheduled for 23 January 2025.

Behind the Scenes of KRX Value-Up Index Special Rebalancing: What It Means for Flow Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • They ditched the rulebook, used a market cap filter to pick the top 5, and watered down PBR and ROE, making them irrelevant. Market cap was the real deciding factor.
  • KRX hasn’t confirmed it, but local sources say the special rebalancing was based on the top 50 KOSPI market caps as of the December 13th close.
  • The shift was driven by local pension funds, especially NPS, which pushed for more big-cap exposure to trigger Value-Up investments, signaling a potential ramp-up in their involvement.

New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

By Douglas Kim

  • Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports. 
  • However, POSCO International’s plan is much better. POSCO International plans to provide total shareholder returns of 50% which is more than double of its previous total shareholder return plan.
  • This sharp increase in shareholder returns is likely to lead to share outperformance of POSCO International relative to the market in the next several months. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner

Elevated Prices, EUDR Delay Make Vietnam Upbeat At Rubber Dinner

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
  • VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
  • Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Natural Gas, USD, MillerKnoll, Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdi and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: The biggest pushback
  • Inside Arbitrage’s Asif Suria shares his thesis on insider purchases at Pebblebrook $PEB
  • Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality
  • Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities
  • U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week
  • Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds
  • MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates
  • RVPH: Preliminary OLE Readout

Global Commodities: The biggest pushback

By At Any Rate

  • Wall Street sell-side analysts discuss feedback and questions policies regarding oil price divergence in 2025
  • Consensus view among analysts suggests bearish sentiment in equity energy investors compared to forecasts
  • Market projections indicate potential tighter global oil balances and reduced likelihood of disorderly price collapse following OPEC meeting in early December 2024.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inside Arbitrage’s Asif Suria shares his thesis on insider purchases at Pebblebrook $PEB

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Insiders are selling more than buying, especially in the technology sector
  • Spin-offs like Western Digital and Lionsgate Studios are of interest to insiders
  • Public Brook is a hotel company where insiders are buying stock and preferred shares, signaling potential value unlocking opportunities. Insiders are expected to start returning capital to shareholders, but the question remains if they will follow through.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting Seasonality

By Suhas Reddy

  • Turbulent fundamentals, volatile weather, and uncertain geopolitics pushed US LNG implied volatility to a 12-month high of 99.47 on 20/Dec. US nat-gas prices have surged 38.2% since November 2024.
  • Midstream/MLP ETFs, with low energy price correlation, stood out in 2024 as the only energy ETFs to attract inflows, while producer and refiner-focused ETFs saw outflows.
  • The Alerian MLP ETF, has an AUM of USD 9.4 billion. Over the past year, it has attracted net inflows of USD 1.3 billion and offers a yield of 7.8%.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

By The Commodity Report

  • While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.
  • The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.
  • FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun ’21.

U.S. Rig Count Remains Unchanged for the Second Consecutive Week

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the second straight week at 589 for the week ending on 20/Dec.
  • For the week ending 13/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.6m bpd from its record high of 13.63m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active US oil rigs grew to 483, while the US gas rig count fell by one to 102.

Global Rates: Hawkish cuts and dovish holds

By At Any Rate

  • Federal Reserve and Bank of England both make decisions that are more dovish than expected
  • Market pricing reflects uncertainty and potential easing in the future
  • Central banks take steps to ensure smooth funding and liquidity in the markets, including adjustments to repo facilities and addressing debt ceiling issues.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MillerKnoll, Inc: Revised Revenue, EPS Estimates

By Water Tower Research

  • MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
  • We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
  • In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

RVPH: Preliminary OLE Readout

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
  • The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
  • Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & is set to begin its 2nd in 1Q25.

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