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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Intuitive Surgical, Rush Enterprises Inc Cl A, Emcor Group Inc, Rubrik , Lancaster Colony, Intapp , Digitalocean Holdings, Ares Management , Graphic Packaging Holding Company, Ingersoll Rand and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intuitive Surgical: International Expansion & Regulatory Milestones & Other Major Drivers
  • Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHA) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024
  • EMCOR Group Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Data Center Expansion & AI Integration
  • Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR
  • LANC US: Here Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!
  • Intapp Inc.: Cloud Transition & Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • DigitalOcean Holdings: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Ares Management’s $3.7 Billion Acquisition: Shift for the U.S. And Global Index
  • Graphic Packaging Breaking Boundaries With Value-Based Pricing That Transforms Industry Standards! – Major Drivers
  • Ingersoll Rand: Emerging Growth Markets & Innovative Solutions to Set New Standards! – Major Drivers


Intuitive Surgical: International Expansion & Regulatory Milestones & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical, Inc. reported robust third-quarter financial results for 2024, reflecting both significant positive developments and some areas of challenge.
  • The company demonstrated strong global growth in its key product lines, particularly the da Vinci systems, which is central to its operation.
  • On the positive side, Intuitive displayed robust procedure growth at 18% year-over-year, with contributions especially strong in the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. Notably, the introduction of the da Vinci 5 system, which launched in March 2024, saw promising early adoption with 188 installations and over 12,000 procedures completed.

Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHA) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice
  • Author may hold a long position in securities mentioned
  • Investors advised to seek professional advice before making investment decisions based on this material

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


EMCOR Group Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Data Center Expansion & AI Integration

By Baptista Research

  • EMCOR Group’s third-quarter 2024 results reflect significant revenue growth, robust operating income, and a strong backlog of projects, underscoring its strategic expansion into resilient market sectors.
  • The company reported record revenues of $3.7 billion, showing a 15.3% increase year-over-year, and operating income surged by 54.7% to $363.5 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share also rose considerably from $3.57 in the third quarter of 2023 to $5.80 this quarter.

Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Rubrik, cybersecurity company and leader in the segment of enterprise backup and recovery software solutions, delivered a high quality beat and raise in 3QFY25.
  • Stock indicated up 20%+ during regular trading session on heavy volume. Rubrik raised guidance for FY25 total revenue to $861M at the midpoint, implying ~37% growth.
  • Moreover, the company generated positive FCF, achieved strong growth at scale and surpassed $1B+ in subscription ARR, a big milestone.

LANC US: Here Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Lancaster Colony Corporation reported its fiscal year 2025 first-quarter results, showing modest growth with some challenges.
  • Consolidated net sales increased by 1.1% to a record $467 million, while gross profit rose by 1.9% to $111 million.
  • A key highlight was the record gross profit, marking positive operational efficiency, although the operating income decreased slightly due to higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.

Intapp Inc.: Cloud Transition & Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intapp, Inc. concluded its fiscal first quarter of 2025 on a strong note, showcasing substantial growth in cloud annual recurring revenue (ARR) and laying a strong foundation for future expansion.
  • A key highlight was the 27% year-over-year growth in cloud ARR, reaching $309 million, which now comprises 74% of the company’s total ARR of $417 million.
  • SaaS revenue also increased by 30% year-over-year to $77 million, driving total revenue up by 17% to $119 million.

DigitalOcean Holdings: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DigitalOcean, a cloud infrastructure provider aimed at developers, startups, and SMBs, achieved steady progress in its third quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, propelled by the success of its core cloud offerings and substantial gains in its AI/ML platform.
  • Despite facing challenges from earlier price adjustments and acquisitions, DigitalOcean demonstrated robust growth in annual run rate revenue of $798.3 million, marking a consistent 12% increase year-over-year.

Ares Management’s $3.7 Billion Acquisition: Shift for the U.S. And Global Index

By Harry Kalfas

  • Ares Management (ARES US) entered into a definitive agreement a $3.7 billion acquisition of GLP Capital Partners’ international operations.
  • The acquisition is structured with a mix of cash and stock, including performance incentives.
  • The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, will impact Ares’ presence in a global and a major US index, potentially creating significant passive demand.

Graphic Packaging Breaking Boundaries With Value-Based Pricing That Transforms Industry Standards! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest financial report from Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) offers a range of insights into both the achievements and challenges experienced by the company during the third quarter of 2024.
  • The company, a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging, has shown resilience in a volatile market environment but also faces certain headwinds.
  • In terms of performance, Graphic Packaging reported third-quarter sales of $2.2 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $433 million, reflecting a solid EBITDA margin of 19.5%.

Ingersoll Rand: Emerging Growth Markets & Innovative Solutions to Set New Standards! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ingersoll Rand reported its Q3 2024 financial results, showcasing a mix of strong performance and growth challenges, against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • The company recorded significant results, achieving record orders and revenue increases, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by over 200 basis points and free cash flow margins reaching 20%.
  • Despite these achievements, Ingersoll Rand acknowledged that the challenging macro environment has impacted customer order timing and site readiness, leading to adjustments in revenue expectations for the full year.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%


EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Vol Term-Structure Inverts as Front-End IVs Jump to 15.0%

By Sankalp Singh

  • Short-Date IVs reprice higher as active contract rolls over to 12.12.2024 expiry. Elevated risk-premia justified as contracts capture RBI rate decision & U.S. NFP event risks.
  • Re-Pricing of front-end IVs has kicked Vol term-structure into Backwardation. Monthly & Quarterly IVs remain unchanged. Current Vol curve shape is at odds with improving sentiment in underlying Index.
  • Strategic Implications: (1) Avoid Short Gamma exposure. (2) Continue allocation to Short Vega + Short Smile structures. (3) Look for Nifty50 trading range to stabilize as trigger for Skew harvesting.   

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Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Sanrio, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Kioxia Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side
  • Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook
  • “Parent-Subsidiary Listing” Heaven Continues to Provide Rich Investment Performance for Investors
  • ECM Weekly (9th Dec 2024) – Goodman, Auckland Airport, Kioxia, MNC, DIY, Vishal Mega, Mao Geping


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
  • There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
  • There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

“Parent-Subsidiary Listing” Heaven Continues to Provide Rich Investment Performance for Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With the TSE shortly declaring the conclusion of discussions regarding parent-subsidiary listings, more parent-subsidiary listings (including listed affiliates) are likely to continue to appear going forward.
  • “TSE’s Request” states a restructuring of business portfolio, but leaves out the issue of restructuring the parent company’s business portfolio and shifting to a management approach that increases corporate value.
  • The parent-subsidiary listings (including listed affiliates) that continue to be created will continue to provide investment opportunities for investors, including activist investors.

ECM Weekly (9th Dec 2024) – Goodman, Auckland Airport, Kioxia, MNC, DIY, Vishal Mega, Mao Geping

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front,  the deal flow doesn’t seem to be slowing down much into the year end. The coming two weeks will see some of the past IPOs listing.
  • On the placements front, Goodman Group (GMG AU)‘s block trade was hogging all of the limelight this week. 

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Daily Brief China: HKBN Ltd, BYD, Tencent, China National Building Material, Lifestyle China, Innovent Biologics Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) – HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 Dec 2024): AH Premia Lower, Markets Up, Tech Weaker, Materials Up
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities
  • China National Building Materials (3323 HK): Buying Back 9.98% of H-Shares
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Wrong
  • Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) – Wounds Heal but Scars Remain



A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 Dec 2024): AH Premia Lower, Markets Up, Tech Weaker, Materials Up

By Travis Lundy

  • Mainland share market volumes continue to be better than HK and SOUTHBOUND volumes, but SB volumes rebounded, tech saw limited net buying, BABA was bought but other major tech sold.
  • The first leg of China’s retaliatory acts against US trade measures appeared with export bans on gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite products, etc. These will not be lifted soon.
  • China is also retaliating against the Phils, Vietnam, Taiwan and changing tack in Europe. The next couple of years threatens to be “interesting times.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and EV names XPeng (9868 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.
  • I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don’t compete in the US. 

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities

By Arun George

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK) has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. 

China National Building Materials (3323 HK): Buying Back 9.98% of H-Shares

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
  • Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
  • Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM’s move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Wrong

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Lifestyle China (2136 HK) was suspended pursuant to then Takeovers Code, the takeaway was that Thomas Lau with 74.91% of shares out would table a Scheme.
  • Which is exactly what unfolded. What was not expected was a stingy 21.7% premium to last close. 
  • The Offer Price has not been declared final. Lifestyle China is trading at 0.11x P/B. This Offer deserves a bump. Otherwise minorities should vote this down.

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) – Wounds Heal but Scars Remain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Innovent did a good job in 24Q3. The 2024 full-year revenue is estimated to reach above RMB8 billion. Peak sales to reach the level of RMB20 billion is entirely possible.
  • It’s a mistake for Innovent to sell a minority stake in Fortvita to Lostrancos. Alhough the Subscription Agreement has been terminated, the confidence in long-term holding this stock has decreased.
  • Innovent’s internationalization needs to be based on the parent company as the main body, which is the most suitable and in line with the interests of shareholders/investors/management/employees of the Company.

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Most Read: HKBN Ltd, Kokusai Electric , De Grey Mining, Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Suntec REIT, Rakuten, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd., Sanrio, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) – HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side
  • Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?
  • Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)
  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2024): CAR, Clarity Pharma Added; Dexus, Spark Deleted
  • Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang’s Obligatory Offer. But … Is ESR A Seller?
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?
  • Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit
  • Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Fund Raising Amidst Pipeline Progress Raises Conviction



Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
  • There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
  • There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Next Target in Logistics Space?

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article this morning several hours pre-open said that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) was preparing to sell its listed forklift subsidiary Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)
  • The story says “Investors had been pressuring Mitsubishi Heavy to spin off or delist Logisnext” and we know the TSE dislikes dual listings. I would have expected a buy-in but…
  • There are a number of reasons why a buyer could find this asset attractive. I suggest reading all the way through and the tone of the Conclusions.

Northern Star’s A$5bn Tilt for De Grey (DEG AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, has announced a merger, by way of  Scheme, with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
  • Northern Star is offering 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%. 
  • Terms back out an implied price of A$2.08/share, or a ~37% premium to last close. This Offer  has the unanimous backing of both boards. 

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2024): CAR, Clarity Pharma Added; Dexus, Spark Deleted

By Brian Freitas


Suntec REIT (SUN SP): Tang’s Obligatory Offer. But … Is ESR A Seller?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Gordan Tang (& his wife Celine) acquired 2.14% in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
  • The Offer Price is $1.16/share against a recent close of $1.17. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. That’s it. This is purely a technical Offer. 
  • Share popped 7% on the news, and closed up ~5%. This appears unwarranted. Tang is not going to take Suntec private. But ESR Group (1821 HK) may be exiting. 

Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced a new shareholder benefit (株主優待) program today, to reward shareholders as of end-December 2024. The stated goal? To “thank shareholders”… 
  • …And provide more people with the opportunity to try out the benefits of Rakuten Mobile, with 1yr free of a 30GB/mo mobile plan. There are conditions, but it’s juicy.
  • Last year’s 3mo plan was given with one day of notice. This year’s larger full-year govt gets 3+wks. They are juicing the sub numbers for 2025.

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit

By Arun George

  • Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake. 
  • Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits. 
  • Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Fund Raising Amidst Pipeline Progress Raises Conviction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU) has requested a trading halt to the ASX pending an announcement in relation to a capital raising. Normal trading will resume on Monday, December 9, 2024.
  • Assuming quarterly cash burn rate of A$7M, Paradigm’s cash balance should provide a runway through mid-Q3FY25. The company is in a dire need to raise fund.
  • With lead drug being in late-stage trial and having huge market potential, Paradigm seems to be an attractive biotech investment opportunity. Recently, optimism is growing surrounding Paradigm’s lead drug candidate.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Rush Enterprises Inc Cl A, Emcor Group Inc, Ingersoll Rand , Team , Keppel Infrastructure Trust, Verbrec and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHA) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024
  • EMCOR Group Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Data Center Expansion & AI Integration
  • Ingersoll Rand: Emerging Growth Markets & Innovative Solutions to Set New Standards! – Major Drivers
  • Team Inc (TISI) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024
  • Keppel Infrastructure Trust – Desalination Plant Disappears into Murky Off Balance Sheet Waters
  • Verbrec Ltd – AGM Update pointing to a strong year


Rush Enterprises Inc (RUSHA) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice
  • Author may hold a long position in securities mentioned
  • Investors advised to seek professional advice before making investment decisions based on this material

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


EMCOR Group Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Data Center Expansion & AI Integration

By Baptista Research

  • EMCOR Group’s third-quarter 2024 results reflect significant revenue growth, robust operating income, and a strong backlog of projects, underscoring its strategic expansion into resilient market sectors.
  • The company reported record revenues of $3.7 billion, showing a 15.3% increase year-over-year, and operating income surged by 54.7% to $363.5 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share also rose considerably from $3.57 in the third quarter of 2023 to $5.80 this quarter.

Ingersoll Rand: Emerging Growth Markets & Innovative Solutions to Set New Standards! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ingersoll Rand reported its Q3 2024 financial results, showcasing a mix of strong performance and growth challenges, against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • The company recorded significant results, achieving record orders and revenue increases, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding by over 200 basis points and free cash flow margins reaching 20%.
  • Despite these achievements, Ingersoll Rand acknowledged that the challenging macro environment has impacted customer order timing and site readiness, leading to adjustments in revenue expectations for the full year.

Team Inc (TISI) – Sunday, Sep 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Services focus on greenhouse gas emission reduction, energy maintenance, insulation, and hot tapping
  • Management team has a successful track record and is focused on market share
  • Strong balance sheet post-sale positions Team for future growth and success

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Keppel Infrastructure Trust – Desalination Plant Disappears into Murky Off Balance Sheet Waters

By Tan Yee Peng

  • KEPPEL INFRASTRUCTURE TRUST (KIT) is an infrastructure trust listed in Singapore. KIT is managed by Keppel Infrastructure Fund Management Pte Ltd (KIFM) and is sponsored by Keppel, a global asset manager and operator. KIFM is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel.
  • The Trustee-Manager, KIFM, has dual responsibility of safeguarding the interests of KIT Unitholders, and managing the business conducted by KIT.
  • The Trustee-Manager has general powers of management over the business and the assets of KIT and its main responsibility is to manage KIT’s assets and liabilities for the benefit of Unitholders as a whole.

Verbrec Ltd – AGM Update pointing to a strong year

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update on engineering, asset management, and infrastructure and training services group Verbrec (ASX:VBC) following its recent AGM at which the company released an updated sales pipeline for the remainder of FY25, stating strong expected win rates of at least equal to last year’s 36%.
  • We retain our existing forecasts with FY25 revenue growth of 11% to $103.2m and EBITDA growth of 19% to $10.5m.
  • However, the AGM commentary gives us additional comfort and confidence that VBC is well placed to deliver those forecasts.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China National Building Material, Graphic Packaging Holding Company, Iron Ore, Valaris , Copper, Crown Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities
  • China National Building Materials (3323 HK): Buying Back 9.98% of H-Shares
  • Graphic Packaging Breaking Boundaries With Value-Based Pricing That Transforms Industry Standards! – Major Drivers
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts
  • Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?
  • Valaris Ltd.: Continued Fleet Utilization & Strategic Warm Stacking Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
  • Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)
  • Crown Holdings Inc.: Why Its Adaptation to Market Dynamics Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers


China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Short Changes Minorities

By Arun George

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK) has launched a conditional share buyback to acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares (18.47% of H Shares) at HK$4.03.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The buyback is unattractive and will leave minorities short-changed, weakening a stretched balance sheet. Nevertheless, while potentially tricky, the votes should pass. 

China National Building Materials (3323 HK): Buying Back 9.98% of H-Shares

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
  • Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
  • Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM’s move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.

Graphic Packaging Breaking Boundaries With Value-Based Pricing That Transforms Industry Standards! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest financial report from Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) offers a range of insights into both the achievements and challenges experienced by the company during the third quarter of 2024.
  • The company, a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging, has shown resilience in a volatile market environment but also faces certain headwinds.
  • In terms of performance, Graphic Packaging reported third-quarter sales of $2.2 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $433 million, reflecting a solid EBITDA margin of 19.5%.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts

By Sameer Taneja


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?

By Sameer Taneja

  • In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
  • Stocks like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.
  • With China’s PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.

Valaris Ltd.: Continued Fleet Utilization & Strategic Warm Stacking Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • Valaris Ltd.’s third-quarter results reflect a focused and disciplined approach to navigating the volatile offshore drilling market.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter was $643 million, up from $610 million in the previous quarter.
  • This led to an improvement in adjusted EBITDA, which rose to $150 million from $139 million.

Copper Tracker 9th Dec 2024: All Eyes On the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)

By Sameer Taneja

  • In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the copper market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
  • The market has looked through the PMI uptick due to the seasonal uplift and order inflows in anticipation of Trump tariffs, although equities seem a little more positive. 
  • We prefer Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the copper space for its high ROIC and future growth. Check out our recent initiation, Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Cheap Play on Copper. 

Crown Holdings Inc.: Why Its Adaptation to Market Dynamics Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Crown Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter 2024 results demonstrating a mixed performance across its operations.
  • The company managed a flat net sales figure of $3.1 billion year-over-year, showing strength in specific sectors but also facing challenges in others.
  • The firm observed increases in global beverage can and North American food can volumes, while other business segments saw declines.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, Kokusai Electric , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Tencent, Rubrik , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Worldline SA, Intapp , Digitalocean Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (09 Dec) – HKBN, ESR, Lifestyle China, GA Pack, Latin Res, De Grey, SG Fleet
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan’s Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too
  • Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR
  • Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2
  • Potential Take Private of Worldline
  • Intapp Inc.: Cloud Transition & Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again
  • DigitalOcean Holdings: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers



Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
  • There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
  • There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 2NM Yield Jump Rumors; Seeing Taiwan’s Starlink Alternative Firsthand in KS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s N2 Progress Sparks Buzz Amid Yield Improvement Rumors; If True Then 2nm Will Become Even More Successful Than 3nm
  • Hon Hai & TASA Showcase Homegrown Space Technologies Including an Alternative to Starlink
  • Himax: Buyback Program Lifts Shares; Auto Display Controllers, AR Displays & WLO for AI Progressing 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and EV names XPeng (9868 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.
  • I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don’t compete in the US. 

Rubrik 3QFY25 Wrap: Solid Outlook, Improving FCF and $1B+ In Subscription ARR

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Rubrik, cybersecurity company and leader in the segment of enterprise backup and recovery software solutions, delivered a high quality beat and raise in 3QFY25.
  • Stock indicated up 20%+ during regular trading session on heavy volume. Rubrik raised guidance for FY25 total revenue to $861M at the midpoint, implying ~37% growth.
  • Moreover, the company generated positive FCF, achieved strong growth at scale and surpassed $1B+ in subscription ARR, a big milestone.

Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

By Nicolas Baratte

  • WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.
  • Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.
  • Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.

Potential Take Private of Worldline

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Private Equity Interest: Worldline has attracted early-stage interest from private equity firms, including Bain Capital, driven by its discounted valuation and extensive market presence in Europe.
  • Market Challenges: Worldline’s stock declined over 50% in 2024, with Q3 revenues dropping 1.1% organically, reflecting struggles in Merchant and Financial Services and the need to stabilize growth.
  • Valuation and Takeover Potential: Worldline’s current valuation at 4.61x EV/EBITDA offers upside potential, with a €9.00/share target implying an 18.4% return, though profitability recovery remains uncertain.

Intapp Inc.: Cloud Transition & Expansion As A Key Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intapp, Inc. concluded its fiscal first quarter of 2025 on a strong note, showcasing substantial growth in cloud annual recurring revenue (ARR) and laying a strong foundation for future expansion.
  • A key highlight was the 27% year-over-year growth in cloud ARR, reaching $309 million, which now comprises 74% of the company’s total ARR of $417 million.
  • SaaS revenue also increased by 30% year-over-year to $77 million, driving total revenue up by 17% to $119 million.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread At Decent Short Level; UMC Short Interest Rises Again

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +23.5% Premium; Decent Level to Short Relative to Historical Trading Range
  • UMC: +0.1% Premium; Middle of the Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises Again
  • ASE: +3.5% Premium; Near Middle of Recent Range, Wait for Better Levels

DigitalOcean Holdings: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DigitalOcean, a cloud infrastructure provider aimed at developers, startups, and SMBs, achieved steady progress in its third quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, propelled by the success of its core cloud offerings and substantial gains in its AI/ML platform.
  • Despite facing challenges from earlier price adjustments and acquisitions, DigitalOcean demonstrated robust growth in annual run rate revenue of $798.3 million, marking a consistent 12% increase year-over-year.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals, Intuitive Surgical, Certara , Innovent Biologics Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2024): CAR, Clarity Pharma Added; Dexus, Spark Deleted
  • Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Fund Raising Amidst Pipeline Progress Raises Conviction
  • Intuitive Surgical: International Expansion & Regulatory Milestones & Other Major Drivers
  • Certara Inc.: Will Its Integration & Expansion via Strategic Acquisitions Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers
  • Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) – Wounds Heal but Scars Remain


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2024): CAR, Clarity Pharma Added; Dexus, Spark Deleted

By Brian Freitas


Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Fund Raising Amidst Pipeline Progress Raises Conviction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU) has requested a trading halt to the ASX pending an announcement in relation to a capital raising. Normal trading will resume on Monday, December 9, 2024.
  • Assuming quarterly cash burn rate of A$7M, Paradigm’s cash balance should provide a runway through mid-Q3FY25. The company is in a dire need to raise fund.
  • With lead drug being in late-stage trial and having huge market potential, Paradigm seems to be an attractive biotech investment opportunity. Recently, optimism is growing surrounding Paradigm’s lead drug candidate.

Intuitive Surgical: International Expansion & Regulatory Milestones & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical, Inc. reported robust third-quarter financial results for 2024, reflecting both significant positive developments and some areas of challenge.
  • The company demonstrated strong global growth in its key product lines, particularly the da Vinci systems, which is central to its operation.
  • On the positive side, Intuitive displayed robust procedure growth at 18% year-over-year, with contributions especially strong in the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. Notably, the introduction of the da Vinci 5 system, which launched in March 2024, saw promising early adoption with 188 installations and over 12,000 procedures completed.

Certara Inc.: Will Its Integration & Expansion via Strategic Acquisitions Be A Breakthrough Move? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Certara’s latest quarterly earnings reveal a mixed set of financial and operational conditions that provide both promising prospects and certain challenges.
  • The company reported third-quarter revenue of $94.8 million, an 11% year-over-year increase.
  • This was bolstered by a 13% rise in total bookings, signaling a steady demand for Certara’s biosimulation services in the global drug development industry.

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) – Wounds Heal but Scars Remain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Innovent did a good job in 24Q3. The 2024 full-year revenue is estimated to reach above RMB8 billion. Peak sales to reach the level of RMB20 billion is entirely possible.
  • It’s a mistake for Innovent to sell a minority stake in Fortvita to Lostrancos. Alhough the Subscription Agreement has been terminated, the confidence in long-term holding this stock has decreased.
  • Innovent’s internationalization needs to be based on the parent company as the main body, which is the most suitable and in line with the interests of shareholders/investors/management/employees of the Company.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Sanrio, BYD, Lancaster Colony, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Lifestyle China and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 Dec 2024): AH Premia Lower, Markets Up, Tech Weaker, Materials Up
  • LANC US: Here Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!
  • “Parent-Subsidiary Listing” Heaven Continues to Provide Rich Investment Performance for Investors
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Wrong


Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
  • It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 Dec 2024): AH Premia Lower, Markets Up, Tech Weaker, Materials Up

By Travis Lundy

  • Mainland share market volumes continue to be better than HK and SOUTHBOUND volumes, but SB volumes rebounded, tech saw limited net buying, BABA was bought but other major tech sold.
  • The first leg of China’s retaliatory acts against US trade measures appeared with export bans on gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite products, etc. These will not be lifted soon.
  • China is also retaliating against the Phils, Vietnam, Taiwan and changing tack in Europe. The next couple of years threatens to be “interesting times.

LANC US: Here Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Lancaster Colony Corporation reported its fiscal year 2025 first-quarter results, showing modest growth with some challenges.
  • Consolidated net sales increased by 1.1% to a record $467 million, while gross profit rose by 1.9% to $111 million.
  • A key highlight was the record gross profit, marking positive operational efficiency, although the operating income decreased slightly due to higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.

“Parent-Subsidiary Listing” Heaven Continues to Provide Rich Investment Performance for Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With the TSE shortly declaring the conclusion of discussions regarding parent-subsidiary listings, more parent-subsidiary listings (including listed affiliates) are likely to continue to appear going forward.
  • “TSE’s Request” states a restructuring of business portfolio, but leaves out the issue of restructuring the parent company’s business portfolio and shifting to a management approach that increases corporate value.
  • The parent-subsidiary listings (including listed affiliates) that continue to be created will continue to provide investment opportunities for investors, including activist investors.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Wrong

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Lifestyle China (2136 HK) was suspended pursuant to then Takeovers Code, the takeaway was that Thomas Lau with 74.91% of shares out would table a Scheme.
  • Which is exactly what unfolded. What was not expected was a stingy 21.7% premium to last close. 
  • The Offer Price has not been declared final. Lifestyle China is trading at 0.11x P/B. This Offer deserves a bump. Otherwise minorities should vote this down.

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