Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD530.1bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD711mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 4th): Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD976.1bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,371mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Via Technologies, TSMC, United Microelectronics, Evergreen Marine Corp Taiwan, Mediatek, Quanta Computer.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 4th): Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 4th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Htc, Airtac International, Yang Ming Marine Transport, Asustek Computer.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Focus on China as Stocks Remain Volatile and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Focus on China as Stocks Remain Volatile
  • Ohayo Japan | Jobs Report Massively Overshot Expectations
  • Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

Japan Weekly | Focus on China as Stocks Remain Volatile

By Mark Chadwick

  • China announced significant economic measures to stimulate its markets and address ongoing challenges
  • The S&P 500 started Q4 on a volatile note with concerns around the U.S. labor market, Middle East tensions, East Coast port strikes, and the approaching U.S. presidential election
  • This week, the Nikkei experienced significant volatility, closing 1,193 points lower, marking its first weekly decline in four weeks

Ohayo Japan | Jobs Report Massively Overshot Expectations

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rallied Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.9% to 5,751 and the Dow adding 300+ points to set a new record
  • Japanese companies’ capital investments in China dropped 16% year-on-year in Q2 2023, falling below European investments for the second consecutive quarter
  • Yaskawa Electric reported its first quarterly order growth in two years, with a 1% increase to ¥126.3 billion.

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

By Andrew Jackson

  • Japan to follow US higher on the much better-than-expected jobs report and the yen back to 148.9
  • Exporters including the Autos with high US exposures as well as Inbound related laggards such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido/Kose should see sentiment improve
  • The strong US data should also help the JP Shippers rebound after dropping -8.2% on Fri on the end of the US port workers strike

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief ECM: Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings
  • Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42
  • ECM Weekly (7th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, JD Ind, Swiggy, Lalatech
  • Rigaku IPO Thoughts on Valuation – Decent Upside from the Indicative Range

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. 
  • Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.
  • Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.
  • The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. 
  • Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.

ECM Weekly (7th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, JD Ind, Swiggy, Lalatech

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, the roaring China/HK market led to some refilings, in what is likely to be the start of a tsunami of refilings, if the market momentum sustains. 
  • On the placements front, given the China/HK holidays there weren’t any deals. We instead looked at Bharti Hexacom upcoming lockup expiry.

Rigaku IPO Thoughts on Valuation – Decent Upside from the Indicative Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise US$762m in its Japan IPO.
  • Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
  • In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peers. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal
  • 7&I (3382) – Asset Sale News Designed to Get Shareholder Attention to Future Value
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Trade
  • Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update – Will ORG Withdraw Midway?
  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Oct) – GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Samson, T-Gaia, Descente, Platinum
  • EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV’s in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Skew & Smile Unmoved by Equity Selloff – Options Market Ill-Prepared for More
  • Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK) provided a positive update on the indicative proposal. The update notes that the consortium has expanded from three to six, representing 39.91% of outstanding shares.
  • The addition of new consortium members is a positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed impetus to launch an acceptable offer.   
  • The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding, which is supported by the potential earnings recovery in a more benign interest rate environment.

7&I (3382) – Asset Sale News Designed to Get Shareholder Attention to Future Value

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) is currently “in limbo” as the initial Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) (“ACT”) has been rejected, some news is out, and we await earnings/presentations.
  • The news last week was that 7&i might sell down a stake in Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) and could sell its retail/superstore business to PE rather than an IPO.
  • Both selldowns mean the focus on CVS everyone seems to want. That’s good news. And the shares are trading at/below ACT terms which “grossly undervalued” the company. Bullish. 

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
  • There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
  • There are 8 trading days to implementation and there are a bunch of stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is unlikely to lower the tender price or cancel the offer due to legal constraints and potential regulatory hurdles, along with compensating investors.
  • Just keep in mind that if you want to participate in MBK’s Korea Zinc offer, you’ll need to submit your bid to secure that compensation safety net.
  • We can’t rule out the second injunction request being accepted on the 21st, leaving Choi’s camp in a tough position with tender offer cancellation risks compared to MBK.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update – Will ORG Withdraw Midway?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Acquiring CPMC at low price is in line with Baosteel’s strategic goals and the new assessment indicators of Baowu Group. This explains why Baosteel didn’t choose to raise its Offer 
  • ORG intends to acquire 100% equity of CPMC. This means state-owned capital needs to withdraw completely from CPMC. So, would China Foods/COFCO (both SOEs) agree to be acquired by ORG?
  • If ORG is “forced to” acquire CPMC due to Baosteel’s low Offer Price, will ORG change mind and choose to withdraw midway?Such “potential unwillingness” from ORG makes the deal “tricky”.

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Oct) – GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Samson, T-Gaia, Descente, Platinum

By Arun George

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV’s in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

By John Ley

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Skew & Smile Unmoved by Equity Selloff – Options Market Ill-Prepared for More

By Sankalp Singh

  • Nifty50 Monthly IVs post +2.6 vol jump as risk premia gets marked higher on return from 02.10.2024 holiday – China-induced Index selloff & FII Options-buying being the main drivers.
  • Vol Term-Structure has switched from Contango to Backwardation in the front end for Nifty50 options. BankNifty Vol Curve flattens due to 11th hour IV markdown. 
  • Options Market looks ill-prepared for another leg lower in indices – Smile & Skew subdued in spite of IV-jump.

Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP), Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.
  • India’s packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.
  • Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge
  • Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting
  • Helix Energy Solutions Up for Sale? 4 Reasons It’s A Prime Acquisition Target!

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
  • The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE’s market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE’s 1H24 profit.
  • ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
  • UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
  • ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.
  • These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina’s holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. 
  • The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina’s share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

By William Keating

  • Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
  • Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to “accelerate AI development and global expansion”
  • G42 “severed its ties” with China in advance of the Microsoft investment

Helix Energy Solutions Up for Sale? 4 Reasons It’s A Prime Acquisition Target!

By Baptista Research

  • Helix Energy Solutions has emerged as a prime candidate for strategic acquirers and financial sponsors exploring opportunities in the offshore oil and gas industry.
  • The company, which provides specialized services such as well intervention, robotics, and production facilities, is exploring its strategic options, including a potential sale.
  • Helix’s latest quarterly earnings call revealed a significant improvement in revenue and profitability, alongside strong operational performance across its key segments.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: Success of China’s Stimulus Measures Hinges on Improvement in Labour Market Conditions and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Success of China’s Stimulus Measures Hinges on Improvement in Labour Market Conditions
  • Examining the Bear Case for China
  • Thinking the Unthinkable: Israel-Iran War
  • China CPI Prediction Model: Methodology and Sep 2024 Forecast
  • Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton
  • Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

Success of China’s Stimulus Measures Hinges on Improvement in Labour Market Conditions

By Said Desaque

  • The People’s Bank of China reduced its policy rate, lowered reserve requirements, and introduced a new lending facility to support the equity market.
  • New fiscal policy measures were announced to help consumers,  but large stimulus programmes invariably incur legacy issues that can subsequently impede the capacity of governments to counter faltering economic activity.
  • Improved Chinese equity prices need sustainment by higher corporate profits, courtesy of faster economic growth. Improved labour market conditions are essential for a recovery in consumer confidence and economic activity.

Examining the Bear Case for China

By Rikki Malik

  • Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade
  • Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally
  • Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed 

Thinking the Unthinkable: Israel-Iran War

By Cam Hui

  • Part of investing is proper risk management and the pricing of risk.
  • While war in the Middle East is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of an Israeli attack on Iran are higher than the market expects.
  • The market is underpricing the risk of war and investors should be aware of this tail risk and position themselves accordingly.

China CPI Prediction Model: Methodology and Sep 2024 Forecast

By Alex Ng

  • We are building our in-house proprietary China CPI Prediction Model, based on the paper “Forecasting China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Based on Combined ARIMA-LSTM Models”* by Yu Liu.
  • This study aims to construct an efficient consumer price index (CPI) forecasting model to provide policymakers, investors, and businesses with more accurate forecasts of future price levels and inflation trends.
  • In this study, a combined model that integrates autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks is introduced.

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

  • With China’s slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
  • The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
  • We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

By Sameer Taneja

  • A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
  • Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
  • While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

By Sameer Taneja

  • A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
  • Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
  • While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor, Korea Zinc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
  • There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is unlikely to lower the tender price or cancel the offer due to legal constraints and potential regulatory hurdles, along with compensating investors.
  • Just keep in mind that if you want to participate in MBK’s Korea Zinc offer, you’ll need to submit your bid to secure that compensation safety net.
  • We can’t rule out the second injunction request being accepted on the 21st, leaving Choi’s camp in a tough position with tender offer cancellation risks compared to MBK.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP), Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.
  • India’s packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.
  • Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.

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