This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
- TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia.
- U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match.
- Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
- TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
- ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
- ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs
3. Faraday Technology’s Breakout: AI Packaging Demand Defying the Global Semiconductor Slowdown
- Faraday Top-Line Soars on CoWoS Chip Packaging Services Support Ramp — 78% of MP Revenue Came from AI/HPC Applications
- TSMC-Aligned Execution Enables Asset-Light Business Scaling for Faraday — New Fabless OSAT Service is Highly Differentiated; Competitive Advantage
- Outlook: Continued Very Strong Momentum into 2Q25 — 1H25 Revenue Will Be Higher Than All of 2024
4. SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns
- SK hynix announced their second-highest revenue and operating profit for the first quarter of 2025
- Much of the company’s performance is the result of its first-mover advantage and excellent execution in the HBM market
- Two issues threaten the company: AI growth may stall, and tariff changes could interfere with the company’s global supply chain
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
- TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging.
- AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds.
- Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.
6. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
- After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
- Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?
7. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.
- 2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
- The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited.
- UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF.
8. UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?
- UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.
- Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.
9. Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door
- Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
- Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
- LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.
10. Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates
- Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
- The company’s engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
- Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
- Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
- It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
- The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.
2. Trading LG Chem’s Large-Scale EB Issuance Backed by LG Energy Shares
- With a $2B deal expected, LG Chem will likely issue before end June as the 2023 EB’s put date nears and redemption pressure builds amid strained financials.
- Two years ago, hedge shorting spiked post-issuance and post-exchange start, but price impact was mild—only 3% and 6% drops—likely due to strong sector sentiment then.
- Sector sentiment’s turned sharply, so more aggressive price action is likely post-EB announcement. Timing is tricky, but the setup’s worth watching closely.
3. DN Solutions IPO – Tariffs, Peer Correction Don’t Help
- DN Solutions (298440 KS) (DNS) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
- DNS is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine tools and the business of automation solutions and services related thereto.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.
4. Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal
- SK Telecom (017670 KS) plans to raise around US$280m via selling its 2%+ stake in Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
- Kakao’s recent performance hasn’t been particularly great and the stock has been suffering even since the Kakao Pay management scandal in 2021.
- In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.
5. Initial Thoughts on the Sono International IPO
- Sono International, the largest resort operator in Korea, is getting ready to complete its IPO in 3Q 2025.
- Company is aiming for valuation of about 3 trillion won. Treasury shares accounted for 35.93% of total outstanding shares at the end of 2024.
- One of the noticeable aspects of the company’s income statement is that although the company’s sales growth was modest from 2019 to 2024, its operating margin growth has been spectacular.
6. ECM Weekly (22 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, Zenergy, Chagee, Duality, Manycore, Horizon, Giant Bio, TV Asahi
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Duality Biotherapeutics delivered a strong listing, while Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies was still holding on to its deal price.
- On the placements front, we looked at number of upcoming lockup expiries.
7. Waaree Energies IPO Lockup – Lots of Individual Shareholders Own over US$2bn Worth of Stock
- Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) raised around US$514m in its India IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2024.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
8. Chagee Holdings – Thoughts on the IPO Debut and the Valuation Outlook
- Chagee may think that US IPO will help it gain greater imagination space/higher valuation. Although the tariff war is “a big surprise”, conservative IPO pricing still secure a good debut.
- If Chagee can successfully achieve internationalization and reverse the trend of declining performance, its market value could reach US$10.9 billion. However, Chinese concept stocks would still face valuation discounts.
- If same store GMV fails to stabilize, or overseas market penetration is lower-than-expected, or conflict between China and the US escalates, share price would face correction, with valuation falling below Starbucks.
9. Ather Energy IPO – Still Not Cheap Enough
- Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates since then and valuations.
10. Wistron GDR Early Look – Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
- Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
- On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.
- Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
- Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
- Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
- The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.
2. Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
- Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.
3. Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Domain Holdings.
- Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).
4. StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.
- Negligible float, 150x+ forward earnings – yes, investors can afford NOT to have GMO Internet (4784 JP) in their portfolio.
- Preceding my comments on the GMO group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
5. Poon Moves On Dickson Concepts (113 HK)’s Cash Hoard?
- Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) (DC), which is principally engaged in the sale of luxury goods business, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
- DC’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& spouse), hold 60.5%. Super-net-cash rich DC is trading in sync with historical metrics. 1H25 (Mar Y/E) net profit dropped 40.1%. Shares are roughly flat yoy.
- Given DC’s cash hoard, taking the company private makes sense. I doubt Poon is seeking to exit his stake.
6. *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
- Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
- In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
- Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.
7. JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later
- At noon today, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced full year (to March 2025) results. Revenues were up 21.4% this year, OP +49.7%, and Net Income +27.8%.
- The company announced a ¥5bn buyback, and also announced a new dividend policy of 6% DOE or 50% payout ratio. As it is a markets business, there is no guidance.
- The stock popped significantly in the PM session, but the market zeitgeist is a tailwind. And there is supportive new news.
8. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This Is A Buy
- On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
- Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne’s two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
- Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done.
9. Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳
- Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
- The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving.
- The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)
10. Korea Dems’ Surprise Proposal: Separate Tax for Dividends Over 35% Payout
- The bill submitted by the Democratic Party today highlights that separate taxation on dividend income applies only to dividends from companies with a 35% payout ratio or higher.
- We might see re-rating on dividend stocks with solid cash flow but below 35%, especially banks over telcos. Holdcos like Samsung C&T, LG, and Hyundai Glovis could attract attention too.
- Dark horses like NAVER, with earnings potential, and Samsung Electronics, currently at 25%, could attract attention if they increase payouts to 35%.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results
- BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 – 10 billion.
- Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.
- Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.
2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results
- On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations.
- The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low <80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
- Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit).
3. HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk
- In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
- Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
- The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.
4. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
- Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.
5. Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Over the past five trading days, Meituan (3690 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Long volatility strategies dominate, with the ratio of bearish vs. bullish positions approximately 2:1.
- Diagonal Spreads account for 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies.
6. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities
- Xiaomi’s (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
- The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
- Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.
7. HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges
- HSBC has rallied 19.8% from the April low and is up > 13% year-to-date. Against this backdrop we analyze implied vol, implied jump and post-earning price patterns.
- Q1 is typically HSBC’s least volatile earnings quarter, with most moves falling short of current jump expectations.
- We suggest a short-vega hedge structure that benefits from elevated implied vol.
8. Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm
- One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
- The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
- Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.
9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
- A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
- Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
- Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.
10. Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
- Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
- Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Trade War Winner & Losers – Where To Invest?
- Our top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
- Least vulnerable: Russia, Brazil, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Malaysia. Most vulnerable: Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand and EU.
- Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.
2. DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience
- President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
- Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
- DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.
3. Gold: YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET!
- Gold’s advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations.
- The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
- The ratio of gold to the S&P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&P continues its bear market.
4. Global Manufacturers Shrug Off Tariffs
- Volatile and destructive US trade policy has roiled markets and confidence, but April’s flash PMI data suggests the sector isn’t suffering significantly more than before.
- The average held steady while the US balance increased. Weakness concentrated in the UK, where experience of the past decade suggests it is more distorted by bad vibes.
- Unemployment data are a more reliable signal, albeit lagging, and these also remain remarkably resilient. Rate cuts rely on Trump breaking the economy, but lack evidence.
5. Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?
- Happy Monday and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro.
- Everyone’s talking about the USD meltdown and whether it marks a seismic shift in the international system as we know it.
- Markets are clearly responding to Trump’s list of “non-tariff barriers,” which notably placed FX manipulation at the very top.
6. HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar
- The US policy caused market volatility over Easter, creating a ‘Trump Collar’ to pricing, but the global economy remains unaffected by the attacks and uncertainty.
- The upcoming week will see a heavy release of data, providing insights into current conditions.
- Key data highlights include US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April, while Q1 EA and US GDP are likely to be discounted by the market as outdated information.
7. Prisoner’s Dilemma For Ukraine
- Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
- Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
- Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.
8. The Art of the Trade War: U.S. PANICS AND RETREATS!
- The US has begun to retreat from the trade war it began this year. Trump and Bessent have both softened their statements toward China and indicated a lowering of tariffs.
- Container ship bookings dropped off a cliff after Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement.
- Trade negotiations are expected to take months or years, and will not change the bear market in the USD, equities, and treasuries as foreigners pull money from US asset markets.
9. The 60/40 in an Era of American Unexceptionalism
- Markets are increasingly concerned about the USD and Treasury assets as a safe haven.
- Investors can consider diversifying into a basket of non-U.S. sovereign bonds, but at the price of a lower coupon rate and a history of underperformance.
- The current combination of technical, sentiment and fundamental conditions indicate the stock market is ripe for a short-term relief rally, with a substantial risk of a much deeper downdraft.
10. Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns
- Trump’s main objective in his trade war is to erect a trade wall around China, but it’s unclear how successful he will be as his allies are wavering.
- The U.S. economy is weakening. At a minimum, the markets will undergo a growth scare, though an actual recession isn’t a certainty.
- The challenge in the long term is the continuation of American Exceptionalism, consisting of long U.S. market leadership, long multi-nationals and a buy-the-dip mentality
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly
- Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
- Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data
- TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
- Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
- PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue
3. TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.
- TSMC offered a surprisingly robust outlook for the current quarter with revenues expected to rise 13% QoQ to $28.8 billion at the midpoint, their highest ever quarterly revenue.
- No change to the previous full year 2025 guidance of mid-20% growth in US$ terms
- It’s likely too early to see the full impact of tariffs and further China restrictions in TSMC’s outlook, but the second half will likely be a different story
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at High-End; ChipMOS & CHT Multi-Year High Short Interest
- TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
- ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares’ Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
- CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference
- Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)‘s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what’s the reasoning behind this?
- Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?
6. Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount
- Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
- The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
- Altera’s CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): International Investors to Dominate the IPO Order Book
- Chagee’s order book is heavily influenced from Asian Investors as the deal is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.
- The underwriters and company came to market with a manageable size transaction and an attractive valuation.
- The geopolitical headwinds, specifically between China and the United States, is forcing many traditional IPO investors to stay on the sidelines.
2. Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
- There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
3. Chagee IPO: Is It Worth the Risks? Peer Comparison and Valuation Analysis.
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) ‘s IPO valuation discount to its peers, including HK-listed tea-beverage players as well as US-listed China-based coffee-beverage player, suggest a strong potential upside on listing.
- US Investor concern over impact of tariffs and caution due to lingering memories of the Luckin Coffee scandal could translate to higher risk premium for the stock.
- Expect Chagee to trade at a discount to budget beverage peers like Mixue Group (2097 HK) given its limited room for network expansion within China and likely slower overseas growth.
4. Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
- Chagee’s premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks.
- Chagee’s IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.
5. Giant Biogene Placement – Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well
- Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
- We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
- In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.
6. China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release
- China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
7. Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – IPO Pricing Is Attractive, But Share Price May Underperform
- Chagee is seeking up to US$411 million by offering nearly 14.7 million ADS priced between US$26 and US$28 each, with market value to reach about US$4.8-US$5.1 billion.
- Chagee is facing performance headwinds. Whether the current high growth of Chagee is sustainable in the future is uncertain. This makes us tend to be conservative in Chagee’s valuation expectations
- Based on our forecast, P/E is about 11.5-12.3x if based on 2025 net profit. Such valuation is attractive, but “valuation discount” may occur due to market turmoil and geopolitical conflicts.
8. Rigaku IPO Lockup – Large PE Investors Can Still Break Even
- Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) raised around US$750m in its Japan IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
9. ECM Weekly (14 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, EBOS, Hengrui Pharma, Zenergy, Chagee, LG India, Huge Dental
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we looked at the possible A/H premium for Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), along with two live deals in Hong Kong .
- On the placements front, only Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)‘s shareholders were brave enough to launch a placement in the turbulent markets.
10. Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Trading Update
- Duality Biotherapeutics raised HKD 1,512m (USD 194m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, April 14th.
- In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products and analyzed its valuation.
- In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
- We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK).
- If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
- PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.
2. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Likely to Price Today; 7-8% Underperformance Vs Peers/TOPIX
- Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to raise US$1.2bn by offloading their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor by way of a secondary offering.
- Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) stock is flat since the announcement of the placement but has underperformed its peers and the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX).
- With the placement being less than 5% of the number of shares outstanding, there is unlikely to be any immediate passive inflow which could pressure the stock.
3. The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination
- Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced their deal whereby Tsuruha merges with Welcia in December, and Aeon gains control of MERGECO.
- Orbis Investments – owner of 9.7% of shares out – complained. I think with good reason. Tsuruha is trading a little expensive to the ratio, but there’s 7.5mos to go.
- Interestingly, there’s real skew on this trade. It’s not overly complicated, and it is worthwhile thinking about it.
4. “Tiny Win for Guess The Ratio” Aeon (8267) Pays a SMALL Premium for Aeon Mall (8905)
- In an announcement after the close Friday 11 April, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced their merger ratio, and timing.
- The ratio is 0.65 to 1.0, meaning Aeon Mall shareholders don’t get a lot of credit for their real estate. The timing is short-dated. The AGM is end-May. Merger July1.
- This may be a tad light, but it is a done deal. Active shareholder base is almost all retail and crossholders+dom passive gets Aeon to 70%.
5. Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
- Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
- The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.
6. FSS Bans Arb in Local MM Books: Identifying Opportunities from Short-Term Inefficiencies
- The FSS is banning arb trades under the MM book, requiring separate books for any arb positions to keep them distinct from MM flow.
- Most local shops lack the resources to set up a separate arb desk. Splitting teams, creating new workflows, and hiring extra staff isn’t feasible given their tight P&L.
- Building a tracker for MM dropouts could spot dislocations, as the crackdown creates short-term inefficiencies—if we’re dialed in, there’s alpha to be made.
7. Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Share Exchange Ratio Is Set
- AEON Mall (8905 JP) announced a share exchange offer by Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at 0.65 Aeon shares per Aeon Mall share, a 30.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The share exchange ratio is reasonable compared to historical price ratios and IFA valuation ranges. The implied offer multiple is attractive compared to peer multiples.
- Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding ensures that Aeon Mall’s vote on 22 May is low-risk. The share exchange’s effective date is 1 July.
8. TKP Corp (3479) – A Second Big Buyback In Short Order
- TKP Corporation (3479 JP) is a fascinating little company. It rents space. From people. To people. Then adds on services. Meeting, recruiting, training, seminar, banquet, party, etc rooms.
- Last year they bought control of two small businesses to add features. Revenues are up. The new FY suggests revenue growth, OP growth, and now a buyback.
- The buyback is the interesting bit. They did one last FY with interesting parameters, and Quiddity has a new tool we are trying out, so we showcase an example here.
9. Yageo Bigly Overbids Minebea (+20%) For Shibaura Elec (6957) At ¥5400
- In February Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share after getting the cold shoulder for months.
- Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) was asked to bid, and they did a week ago, bidding ¥4,500/share. Yesterday the Shibaura CEO was in an article saying an overbid would be considered.
- Mid-Day, I boomeranged my piece, saying I thought Yageo would overbid. Today after the close, Yageo has overbid with a whopping ¥5,400/share bid, with unchanged start date of 7 May.
10. [Japan Activism] – ValueAct Agrees to Tender to KKR Topcon (7732) Tender and Join As Buyer
- Last night, Topcon Corp (7732 JP) announced that KKR had agreed a deal with ValueAct Capital who owns 14.62% of Topcon to have VAC tender shares and invest in Bidco.
- Topcon’s Special Committee saw nothing wrong with this in terms of fairness. I think that argument needs to be investigated at a broader level.
- If Bidder wants 50.1% control and expects passive to agree, and Bidder gets 50.1% to join Bidco at terms, obviously, majority of minority disappears. This is an unintended loophole.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market.
- The Trump Administration’s move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
- Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.
2. Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
- Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
- Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.
3. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
- The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
- Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
- The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.
4. TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement.
- The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
- Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.
5. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed
- Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
- We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
- The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.
6. TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes.
- Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
- Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses.
7. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week
- Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% – levels last seen during 2024 National Elections.
- Vol-Regime switches from “Low & Up” state to “High & Up”. Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.
- Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.
8. Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold
- Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
- Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
- Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.
9. Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals
- Price action was volatile this week, marked by two large moves and a notable pickup in vol of vol.
- We examine the material steepening of skew observed over the course of the week.
- USD/KRW broke its recent range, reinforcing signs that USD assets may be losing their traditional flight to quality appeal.
10. HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
- A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
- The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
- Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
- Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
- Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
- Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.
2. UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
- A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.
- Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.
- Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.
3. US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
- Donald Trump’s recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.
- However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.
- This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.
4. A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War
- No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
- Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
- However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.
5. Atkins to Accelerate the Delisting of Chinese Stocks From the US Stock Exchanges in 2025/2026?
- Paul Atkins, the new head of U.S. SEC could accelerate the delisting of Chinese stocks from the U.S. stock exchanges.
- There are about 280 companies from mainland China that are listed in the U.S. with a combined market cap of about $880 billion.
- There could be two major reasons to accelerate this delisting (require Chinese companies to abide by US GAAP accounting and fully delist Chinese companies with ties to Chinese military).
6. Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway
- Morning from Copenhagen!It’s been a remarkable week—and weekend—in policy space.
- On Friday, the White House released a list of exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs (including, for example, semiconductors).
- Then, on Sunday, Trump “tweeted” that no exemptions were made, leaving Howard Lutnick once again to explain what was actually going on.
7. US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”
- The S&P bounced off its support level of 4800 and is now consolidating on investor hopes that the worst is over as volatility declines.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
8. Trump’s End Game
- Trading Post’s top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
- Trump’s ultimate objectives are to secure fairer trading terms and stimulate inward investment—and the strategy appears to be gaining traction.
- Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.
9. Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
- Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy.
- From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
- Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.
10. Estimating Downside Risk
- The S&P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards, but it remains an open question of whether stock prices will decline further after a short-term bounce.
- Our estimate of S&P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with strong technical support at 4800. Downside risk with a recession is 3300-3800.
- Current readings indicate elevated recession risk based on consensus policy expectations, which can change at any time.