This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range
- TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
- ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short
2. AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions
- AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
- AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
- Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who’s next?
3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: 2026 Chip Forecasts Remain Robust; Robots as Taiwan’s Next Driver; Memory 1Q25
- Global Chip Sales Tick Higher in April, 2026 Growth Forecast Robust — WSTS Forecast Signals Sustained Semiconductor Growth Through 2026 Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- National Taiwan University Semiconductor Forum Highlights — Edge AI and Robotics The Next Major Demand Catalyst… AI Still in Its Early Phase
- Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review — Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook
4. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.
- There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.
- In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
- Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.
5. Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?
- Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
- Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
- What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?
6. TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
- TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
- Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
- We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally
7. Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts – The Memory Market Finds a New Gear
- DRAM — Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
- NAND Flash — Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
- Conclusion — Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Horizon Robotics Placement – Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
2. [Japan ECM/Index] Azoom (3496) Offering to Enable Move to TOPIX
- On Friday 6 June, Azoom (3496 JP) announced it would conduct an offering (small issuance of new shares, some Treasury shares, larger selldown by the main shareholder).
- That comes in conjunction with a transfer to TSE Prime from TSE Growth, which itself leads to a TOPIX Inclusion trade next month.
- The company has decided to tack on a special dividend for this year, on top of growth and more liquidity. None of this is especially bad.
3. Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
- ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.
4. Xtalpi US$860m IPO Lockup Expiry – Last of the Lockup Release with Nearly All Shares in CCASS Now
- XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 13th Jun 2024 after raising US$126m. Its one-year lockup will expire soon.
- QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
5. Sanhua Intelligent Controls H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH), the world’s largest refrigeration and air-conditioning control component manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for a H Share listing to raise US$1.0-1.5 billion.
- Sanhua’s market share in the global refrigeration and air-conditioning control component market was 45.5% in terms of revenue in 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
- The fundamentals are good, with the positives (refrigeration and aircon rising growth, stable margin, and cash generation) outweighing the negatives (automotive declining growth, US tariffs overhang).
6. Keymed Bioscience Placement – Track Record Isn’t Great but Recent Performance Has Been Better
- Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK), along with its controlling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$112m to fund its R&D requirements.
- Keymed Biosciences, a China-based biotech company which focuses on therapeutic areas of autoimmune and oncology
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
7. ECM Weekly (9 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Virgin Aus, Primo, Kitazato, Wistron, Kelun Bio, Mao Gep
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) might launch their IPOs soon.
- On the placements front, Wistron Corp (3231 TT) launched its well flagged GDR, along with a few more deals this week.
8. Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
- FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
9. Everest Medicine Placement: Another Sell-Down by CBC, Some Caution Warranted
- Everest Medicines (1952 HK) aims to raise around US$150m in a secondary sell-down of shares conducted by CBC Group.
- This comes on the heels of a similar secondary sell down in Jan 2025, whereby CBC sold ~US$100m worth of stock, priced at a 10% discount.
- In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
10. Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective
- Fundamentals first, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK)‘s IPO is interesting given a positive growth outlook – 1Q25 growth accelerated to 14.8% with margin expansion.
- We value the H-share at HK$39.35, 8.4% higher than the high-end of the IPO price based on 28.2x FY25F PER to reflect its significantly stronger 3-year earnings growth.
- It equals 5.9x pre-money FY25F P/B, justified by ROE of 21.8-22%, sharply ahead of peers. Net cash equals 12.4% of its A-share market cap.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
- For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
- The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
- There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.
2. Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
- There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
- The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July.
3. [Japan M&A] Carlyle Deal for TRYT (9164) – Great Exit for Speculators as HR Co Targets Are Desirable
- In early February, articles suggesting the PE owner of TRYT (9164 JP) wanted to cash out. Performance post-IPO had been bad. Catching up to the IPO price would be tough.
- But a second round of bidding came about, so the stock went limit up. Then it settled in the ¥480 range for three weeks. Then started to climb.
- Now the company and its PE firm owner have announced a sale to a new PE Firm at ¥880/share. This is below IPO Price but it will get done.
4. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
- Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer.
- The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
- Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.
5. [Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal
- The long-term major owner now chairman is getting out. The company was shopped. And bought. And this is the deal. ¥2,830 which is about 5.7x this year’s EBITDA.
- It could have been done a bit better, but irrevocables are 48.5% out of the 50.01% minimum and other directors get this past the minimum hurdle.
- Transparency is lacking but it is an all-time high and you can’t do much about it.
6. Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion
- Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
- Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.
- Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.
7. Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones
- Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
- There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
- The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.
8. Merger Arb Mondays (09 June) – Mayne, Tam Jai, OneConnect, Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Fuji Corp (7605 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP).
9. [Japan M&A] Hino & Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck to Join; Bagholding Ugly for Minorities, and a Re-IPO
- On the 10th of June, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) and Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck & Bus Company announced their long-awaited integration plans. We have a deal.
- An agreement was signed in 2023, but Hino got in big trouble for falsifying testing data on gasoline engine emissions/efficiency. Hino took a hit in 2023, then 2025. Talks advanced.
- The deal announced suggests Toyota has thrown itself and Hino minorities under the proverbial Fuso bus. It’s VERY odd. But… it deserves a look because 2026 will see a re-IPO.
10. A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
- AH spreads are slightly narrower. BANKS, INSURERS, BROKERS, INDUSTRIALS, PHARMA and UTILITIES see significant H-share outperformance vs their A pairs. TECH, CONSUMER, ENERGY mixed to worse.
- Ongoing skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H outperform sharply but those with H Premia contracted. Quiddity Portfolio alpha trending strongly.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement
- As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
- The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
- This insight evaluates possible scenarios for the possible 2-4 weeks, beyond the June 20 date when the index review will become effective.
2. BYD (1211 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- This Insight analyzes sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on BYD (1211 HK), executed over the period from 2 June to 9 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, from an in-the-money bear put spread, to a bold short-term bullish iron condor, and a butterfly aiming at a narrow price target.
- Why read: In-depth breakdown of complex option strategies, shedding light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
3. Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
- A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
- We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index
- Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate).
4. Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
- The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It’s modestly overbought and could go higher.
- News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.
5. Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
- Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
- Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.
6. US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding
- We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
- Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
- Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.
7. JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
8. S&P/ASX 200: All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge
- S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
- Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
- We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.
9. Ping An (2318 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
- Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), executed over the period from 6 to 12 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: Many strategies creatively utilize weekly expiries, sometimes employing options with as little as one or two days to maturity to generate upfront yield or financing.
- Why read: Detailed examples and break-down of complex option strategies provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
10. Meituan (3690 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Meituan (3690 HK), executed over the period from 5 June to 11 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: A range of strategies, spanning time-horizons from just a few days to several months. Including a low-cost call spread with the potential to return approximately 8x the invested premium.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK: Some Workshy Start Looking
- A broadly softer labour market report could easily be used to overstate the fundamental significance. Unemployment’s rise was expected and only 0.2pp on the year.
- Employment is growing and redundancies are low, but when the inactive look for work, long-term unemployment rises. Yet the workshy will struggle to compete for jobs.
- Wage growth slowed despite a 0.5% m-o-m impulse. Costs are rising excessively fast, so the BoE still doesn’t have space to keep easing, and we expect no more rate cuts.
2. UK: Retreating To Trend Again
- Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
- The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
- BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.
3. US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs
- Another downside surprise in headline US inflation reflected the lack of pass-through from tariff increases, with headline and core rates of only 0.1% m-o-m in May.
- Commodities, less food, energy and car prices stalled as airfares and apparel fell again. But services (ex-shelter) inflation stayed too high to be consistent with the target.
- Low headline rates raise dovish political pressure and the risk of a cut, but the tight labour market should encourage the Fed to keep rolling potential cuts later.
4. HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
- Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
- Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
- The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.
5. Why “Sell America” Isn’t Equity Bearish
- We have been fairly cautious in our U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean we are equity bearish.
- We are embracing the “Sell America” trade because of a combination of deteriorating U.S. fiscal position and the trade war policy pivot that’s contributing to falling confidence in USD assets.
- The key risk to our “Sell America” thesis is whether the U.S. can sustain its technology dominance in the next investment cycle.
6. US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
- The US Administration is undermining foreign demand for dollar assets at the same time, supply for US treasury debt is rapidly expanding.
- The Fed is constrained from lowering the Fed Funds rate due to rising yields in the long end of the treasury market.
- The long end of the US Treasury market is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff policies. The US equity market will follow as risk premiums rise.
7. Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors
- In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
- The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
- Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.
8. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
India cuts interest rates as currency pressure eases, aiming to boost private investment without triggering inflation concerns.
China’s exports rise overall despite a sharp drop to the US, showing strength through trade diversification.
Regional trade flows shift sharply, with Taiwan and Vietnam surging ahead of potential tariffs, while uncertainty clouds second-half investment outlook.
9. Inflation Concerns Overdone
- For Trading Post a global recession has never been on the cards, nor a resurgence in inflation.
- If mainstream economists continue to raise alarms about a tariff induced inflation surge, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how inflation works and what drives it.
- Current trends in broad money growth, credit cycles and monetary policy settings simply don’t support the prevailing inflation narrative.
10. Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks
- China’s crashing exports to the US partly reflect avoidance measures, including rerouting through other countries and marking down import prices to subsidiaries.
- Exports to the EU and UK are only trending slightly higher, making little difference to disinflation. ASEAN countries, and especially Vietnam, are seeing trade surge again.
- The US may clamp down on avoidance measures that have eased the shock so far. It could make a painful example of one to encourage concessions from all trade partners.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.
- There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
- Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
- If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek’s New Chip Could Outperform Apple’s; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo
- Rumors That Mediatek’s Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple’s Chips Used in the iPhone 17
- Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
- PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches
3. Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference
- Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
- The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
- Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger.
4. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)
- Intel Corp (INTC US) CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”
- Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.
- In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives
5. Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review, Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook Etc.
- DRAM revenues for Q125 amounted to $28.6 billion, up 1.5% QoQ and up 57.4% YoY.
- NAND Q125 revenues amounted to $13.3 billion, down 20.6% QoQ and down 5.5% YoY.
- Micron’s HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030. Transformation incoming!
6. Micron Upcoming Earnings Vs.Hyperscaler CapEx Slowdown
- Micron is doing very well lately, mainly from its position in HBM, and this is likely to be a key positive factor in their upcoming June 25 earnings call
- Hyperscaler CapEx has slowed, but the CapEx share of revenues continues to rise, indicating speculation that AI growth will come
- Despite the above, Nvidia revenues have continued to grow, which is a positive indication for HBM sales
7. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.
- Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Kitazato Pre-IPO – Past Sales Have Been Steady but Slowing
- Kitazato (368A JP) manufactures and sells medical devices and products for fertility treatment. It aims to raise around US$120m in its Japan IPO.
- Kitazato specializes in artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, cell cryopreservation and reproductive engineering technologies in regenerative medicine.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
2. Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment
- Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
- Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.
3. Kelun-Biotech Placement – Recent Run-Up Makes Its Tricky
- Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m from a primary placement. The offering is priced at HK$ 330.2-341, a 5-8% discount to last close.
- The company plans to use the proceeds for research and development, clinical trials of its core products and as working capital.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
4. Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals
- Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$922m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
- Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
5. Primo Global Pre-IPO: Driven by Domestic Demand as International Ops Falter
- Primo Global (367A JP) is looking to raise at least US$104m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
- Primo Global specializes in merchandising bridal jewellery, namely engagement rings and wedding rings.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
6. Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)
- Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).
- We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins.
- Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown.
7. ECM Weekly (2 June 2025) -Indigo, ITC, EBOS, Isuzu, Foshan Haitian, Lens Tech, Seres, Schloss, Aegis
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) might launch its A/H listing this week.
- On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region, with notable ones in ITC Ltd (ITC IN) and InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN).
8. Aegis Vopak IPO: Anemic Demand
- Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN) raised about US$328m in its upcoming India IPO.
- It is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
- In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
9. Pre IPO Eastroc Beverage Group (H Share) – The Strength, the Concerns and the Outlook
- 2024 is a milestone year. The weighted average ROE set a new high. Due to cost dilution brought by economies of scale, net profit growth was higher than revenue growth.
- The risk of relying on a single category hasn’t been eliminated. Traditional advantages of offline channels are becoming saturated. There is a gap between channel structure and new consumer forces
- Eastroc’s valuation is expected to be higher than the industry average and peers due to its higher growth rate, but investors needs to consider the H/A premium
10. Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
- They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
- The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
- 2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
- But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
- The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.
2. Soul Patts & Brickworks: Index Impact of A$14bn Merger
- Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
- The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
- There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.
3. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
- While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
- The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.
4. [Japan Activism] Pasona Group (2168 JP) – Three New Things Of Mixed Importance
- Pasona Group (2168 JP) is a “value stock.” It has loads of cash (but less than you think) and significant ongoing governance issues, but they are doing a TINY buyback.
- Several weeks ago we got an announcement which was odd. Not completely odd, just odd. Now in the past week we have market activity/announcements which make one wonder.
- This piece attempts to interpret some of the recent data/info points. One is odd. Another is odd but meaningful (but different than people think). A third is just technical.
5. ESR (1821 HK): A Shareholder Register Look-Through
- Today, I was the first analyst to gain access to ESR (1821 HK)‘s lesser-known shareholder register, a byproduct of investigative disclosure reports under s329 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
- This is the same register discussed in Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM and L’Occitane (973 HK): Who Owns What, And When
- It is also used by proxy solicitors. My takeaway, still, is that this Offer is a done deal. But yes; there are a few shareholder activists lurking in the register.
6. [Japan Buyback] Leopalace (8848 JP) – A Giant Buyback To Get Fortress Partially Out
- Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) had a giant oopsie in 2018-2021 where they lost ¥180bn over three years because of defective construction requiring repairs.
- Murakami and others got involved. Leopalace got financing from FIG (shares/SARs/loan), Murakami bailed. Eventually Hikari Tsushin got in. Leopalace got FIG out of their loan, doing a refi through Mizuho.
- Cash was up, cashflow is strong. Business is changed/revived. Now Leopalace is buying back SARs it sold to FIG. FIG will still own 26%. The future is potentially interesting. Still.
7. Soul Patts/Brickworks To Unwind Circularity
- The cross-shareholding between Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) was established in 1969 to defend the companies from corporate raiders.
- Perpetual pursued a case in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging that the cross-shareholding was oppressive to minority shareholders; however the claim was dismissed in 2017.
- Today, via inter-conditional Schemes, the circularity is set to be unwound through a merger. Soul Patts currently owns 43.3% in Brickworks, and Brickworks 26% in Soul Patts.
8. Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame
- Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
- The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
- Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.
9. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
- The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne.
- While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.
10. NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
- 0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
- What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
- NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid
- Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP) proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is involved: 2 weeks ago we predicted a rally, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target – time for an update.
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let’s analyze the models….
2. HSI Tactical Outlook: Buy This Dip
- After a 7-week rally the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) last week gave up and close the week down (CC=-1 on our WEEKLY LONG model).
- The pullback continued on Monday, reaching 22668 and in our WEEKLY LONG model this price support zone is oversold.
- The pullback may continue, so in this insight we are going to offer some perspective on possible support zones where to buy. We think this setback is a buy opportunity.
3. KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory
- Lee Jae-myung’s is projected to win the Presidential Elections in South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate said he wants to revive the economy and stabilize the stock market.
- At the moment of writing (around midnight Singapore time) the KOSPI 200 INDEX‘s reaction is positive, the futures are rising towards the most recent, last week highs (363).
- This is a quick review of our most recent KOSPI 200’s tactical setups, in light of the political news coming out of the polls.
4. TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook: Bullish After Shareholders Meetings
- As reported by Patrick Liao ,Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) held its shareholders meetings on June 3rd, read the insight for the details.
- The bottom lines emerging from the meeting are: no fear of tariffs, no fear of appreciation of the NT dollar, no fear of having their tech stolen in foreogn-based factories.
- The stock rallied from June 3rd, closing at 998 on Thursday. Our model say the stock is not yet overbought, could rally higher.
5. Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds
- Most major indices extended their April rally through May, but seasonal patterns suggest caution from here.
- Implied volatility declined across most markets, but remains above historical medians in several key regions.
- Vol premium analysis highlights a few standouts where short vol has historically outperformed.
6. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 02 – 06): Broad Gains as Option Activity Fades
- A weekly roundup of key option and price metrics for Hong Kong single stocks.
- Option volumes on par with the lowest levels seen over the past 6 months.
- Implied volatility appears to have broadly settled around current levels.
7. Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut
- The NIFTY Index rallied after RBI cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 5.50%(but RBI governor said there is limited policy space from here).
- Inflation forecast was cut to 3.7%; GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5, but Trump’s trade tariffs and the prospect of a global economic slowdown are generating uncertainty.
- The NIFTY was already moving up in the last 2 days and accelerated sharply on Friday. But our model signals that the index is not overbought, it can go higher.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…
- Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan.
- He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
- NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.
2. Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist…
- A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
- Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
- The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries.
3. NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt
- NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
- NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
- Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.
4. Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS
- CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
- Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
- China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development
5. Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.
- Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.
- Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.
- In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.
6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount
- TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
- CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher
7. GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.
- Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).
- Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.
- Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.
8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways
- Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.
- GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.
9. PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches
- HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
- Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
- Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value