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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 07
0

Daily Brief Financials: Pakuwon Jati, Ricoh Leasing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: International Container, Pakuwon Jati
  • In the US, the April ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.6 (50.2 e / 50.8 p). The new orders component expanded to 52.3 (50.3 e / 50.4 p), while employment increased to 49.0 (47.1 e / 46.2 p).
  • The prices paid component jumped to 65.1 (61.4 e / 60.9 p), the highest level since 2022. Separately, the April (final) S&P services PMI declined to 50.8 (51.2 e / 54.4 p), below the preliminary reading of 51.4. The composite PMI fell to 50.6 (53.5 p).

Ricoh Leasing (8566 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY312.2bn (+1.2% YoY), with gross profit at JPY48.5bn (+6.5% YoY) and operating profit at JPY21.7bn (+3.4% YoY).
  • Contract execution volume rose significantly in logistics facilities, with revenue at JPY9.9bn (+65.0% YoY) and operating profit at JPY2.1bn (+84.4% YoY).
  • For FY03/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY320.0bn (+2.5% YoY) and a dividend per share increase to JPY185.0.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Macro: Malaysia Betters Rubber Production and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May
  • HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)
  • Looming US Tariffs Raise the Ante on Asia to Change Growth Dynamics
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears
  • Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/18] Henry Hub Rebounds on Output Decline and Robust LNG Demand

Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • February marks 18.7% NR yield growth MoM, 21.3% growth YoY  
  • Exports of NR too go up by an impressive 23.7% MoM  
  • Malaysian gloves set to upend China’s competition in US market  

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.
  • Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.
  • Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (April 2025)

By David Mudd

  • The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark index during April by 1.1%.  Since its inception last year, the portfolio has outperformed its benchmark by 18%.
  • Although the tech sector was hit after April 2nd, the portfolio made 2% in its tech exposure for the month.  We reduced the portfolio’s volatility & increased its Sharpe ratio.
  • At the end of April, sold positions that are at risk from the tariff uncertainty and increased our exposure to China domestic consumption.

Looming US Tariffs Raise the Ante on Asia to Change Growth Dynamics

By Said Desaque

  • Asian countries are very uncertain about how reciprocal tariffs with the US will eventually play out. Exporters need to find new markets. Governments will have to engineer new growth drivers.
  • China has built closer direct investment ties with Vietnam since the first Trump administration in order to avoid US protectionist measures. Local content requirements could be toughened by the US.
  • China’s economy still relies heavily on net exports, while consumers currently remain cautious about discretionary spending. Monetary policy in China has not been successful in reviving private credit demand.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell 7.5% for the week ending 02/May, weighed by OPEC supply hike and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by three to 584. The oil rig count fell by four to 479, while gas rigs grew by two to 101.
  • WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.84 on 02/May from 0.82 on 25/Apr. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.9%.

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

By The Commodity Report

  • The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.
  • Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.
  • Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/18] Henry Hub Rebounds on Output Decline and Robust LNG Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 02/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 23.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
  • For the week ending 25/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 107 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 111 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.94 on 02/May compared to 0.96 on 25/Apr. Call OI increased by 4.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 3%.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Seazen Group, Tata Motors, JSW Steel

  • In the US, nonfarm payrolls came in meaningfully above estimates at 177 k in April (138 k e / 185 k revised p), albeit the March numbers were revised downwards to 185 k (from 228 k). The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The average hourly earnings rose 3.8% y-o-y (3.9% e / 3.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p).

  • The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Friday that US officials have “repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues”, and added that China is currently evaluating the situation.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?
  • Japanese Railway Companies – Back on Track
  • Charted Insight: India’s Growing Cost Advantage in Global IPhone Manufacturing
  • SA Listed Property Review April 2025

Global Reshuffling: Whether India Will Win from China+1?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Global companies are shifting supply chains, adopting the “China+1” strategy, with India emerging as a significant winner, attracting manufacturing and investment across sectors like electronics, EVs, and textiles.
  • India offers a strategic alternative to China, with favorable policies, a growing domestic market, and trade advantages, positioning itself as a manufacturing hub amid global trade shifts.
  • India is no longer just a backup for China; it’s becoming the primary destination for global supply chains, reshaping the manufacturing ecosystem with deepening local integration and technological advancements.

Japanese Railway Companies – Back on Track

By Rikki Malik

  • This domestic sector has been  outperforming the Topix and should continue
  • Fits the current investment zeitgeist for Japan amidst the market turbulence
  • The Japanese Yen will continue to strengthen against the USD 

Charted Insight: India’s Growing Cost Advantage in Global IPhone Manufacturing

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Tim Cook said in a recent call, starting June 25, all iPhones entering US will be sourced from India, creating a billion-dollar opportunity for India.
  • Apple’s growing investment in India represents a strategic shift away from China due to rising geopolitical tensions and high production costs in China.
  • As India continues to scale up, the country has the potential to close the gap with China and become a critical player in high-tech manufacturing.

SA Listed Property Review April 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • The SA All Property Index experienced a sharp initial decline precipitated by the US tariff announcements, but staged a strong recovery following a partial pause in tariff implementation. 
  • Global REITs were up +1.25% for the month, but US REITs ended the month down -2.23%.
  • Despite global turbulence South African property companies demonstrated resilience. Ultimately ending the month firmly in positive territory up +6.54%, pulling the Index back into positivity for the year (YTD +2.15%). 

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May 06
0

Daily Brief ECM: CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
  • EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO
  • Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind
  • Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut.  Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?
  • Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO
  • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
  • We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025. 
  • Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued. 

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • The company set terms with a F-1/A putting 10 million shares for sale at a range of $46-$50 which would value the company as high as $4.05b.
  • BlackRock and funds managed by BlackRock placed a 20-percent cornerstone investment order and is on the cover of the prospectus. 
  • The blueprint to getting an IPO out the door during this time is to shrink the size of the transaction, bring in a cornerstone investor and provide an attractive valuation.

Pre-IPO Kayou – The Strength of Business Model and the Potential Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Kayou’s business model revolves around IP licensing+blind box+multi-category expansion.With trading cards as the core traffic entry point, Kayou expands to other products, forming a synergistic effect of “card revenue+derivative products”.
  • Kayou mainly relies on licensed IPs to drive growth, Its revenue are highly concentrated on limited number of IPs. The expiration of IP license agreements is “The Sword of Damocles”
  • Valuation could be lower than peers as the core risks are concentrated on IP renewal and the government’s supervision of minors, which would negatively affect the sustainability of future growth.

Ather Energy IPO: Likely Muted Debut.  Promoter Dynamics Shift—Potential Upside or Risk?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) lists on Indian stock exchanges today with expectations of a subdued debut.
  • Following its IPO, and early VC investors gradually reducing their stakes, the ownership and influence dynamics may begin to tilt more toward Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) that now owns 30%.
  • Is this shift a threat to Ather’s innovation-driven DNA, or should investors support a stronger collaboration with Hero Motocorp to unlock accelerated growth and take on competition from ICE incumbents?

Ather Energy IPO Trading – Running Out of Charge

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO.
  • Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • According to guidance that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with high-quality 1-on-1 conversions.
  • Aspen is selling itself at or slightly below the $30.73 per share book value of comps.
  • Apollo Global has done a fair job of cleaning up Aspen and making it increasingly more profitable while reducing exposure to reinsurance and property in vulnerable areas.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Specialty Insurer Eyes IPO, Winner in Florida

By IPO Boutique

  • According to our sources,  the deal is oversubscribed with a good amount of accounts still to hear from.
  • Management has strong numbers as of year-end 2024 and have gained even more momentum in Q1 2025. 
  • While smaller in size, this company has a sustainable expansion plan and a profitable balance sheet with a tailwind from a growing Florida market.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher
  • Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields
  • Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
  • Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
  • Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Exclusivity With Shift4 (?) As Tyro Walks
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. 
  • There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
  • Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
  • GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
  • Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.

Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are targeting the spread between day and NXT’s after-hours, a classic arb play similar to what Japanese instos used when ATS first launched, now emerging in Korea.
  • The gap persists because institutional flow on NXT is still minimal, with recent data showing instos accounting for just 1-2% of total turnover.
  • NXT’s night session is seeing heavy retail flow, providing instos with the liquidity to trade. This creates a rare opportunity to capitalize on early inefficiencies before others catch on.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn. The next two weeks flat.
  • Two weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. This past week saw only 3 days of SOUTHBOUND trading and saw net selling of big internet names.
  • This week threatens to be quiet as well, as tariff news moves away from China for a little while, and towards foreign auto exporters, Canada, Mexico, and “trade frameworks.”

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
  • The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
  • The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

By Travis Lundy

  • A quiet week as most indices – HK and mainland – saw performance hover around zero for the three days both were open at the start of the week. 
  • For a couple of months I’ve thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. Widening has paused. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from spread torsion (wider spreads coming in, small premia widening). Alpha good again this week.

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) Enters Exclusivity With Shift4 (?) As Tyro Walks

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th March, eftpos terminal provider Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) announced the receipt of two NBIOs
  • One from Tyro (TYR AU) (@ NZ$1.00/share) and one from a third party (believed to be Shift4 (FOUR US)). Both parties were granted a limited period of commercial due diligence. 
  • After Shift4 (if indeed them) bumped terms to NZ$1.20/share/A$1.12/share, it was granted exclusivity on the 2nd May. Tyro has now walked. 

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
  • Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels
  • Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations
  • Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value
  • In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)  – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
  • ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound 9.5% from Apr 9 lows, tracking volatility in global markets
  • HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang

A Pair Trade of Hanwha Aerospace and Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) (go long) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) (go short).
  • Hanwha Ocean faces bigger overhang risk of KDB continuing to sell additional shares of the company as compared to Hanwha Aerospace’s rights offering shares dilution risk. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace/Hanwha Ocean price ratio (5 year period) is near the 2 standard deviation (STD) mark which could suggest a reversion to the mean.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
  • UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
  • CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations

By Rahul Jain

  • Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
  • Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
  • Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial’s technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
  • With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
  • We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  

In Response to Tariff & “De Minimis” Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into…Amazon?

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
  • Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
  • The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)  – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
  • Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
  • Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.

ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth

By Rahul Jain

  • Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
  • Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
  • Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.

REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound 9.5% from Apr 9 lows, tracking volatility in global markets

By Geoff Howie

  • In April 2025, S-REITs recorded a total net institutional selling of S$90.3 million and retail selling of S$54.6 million.
  • ParkwayLife REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Frasers Hospitality Trust were the top three year-to-date gainers in 2025.
  • Stoneweg European REIT obtained unitholders’ approval for stapling to form Stoneweg European Stapled Trust, enhancing tax efficiency and investment scope.

HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • As HIT continues to expand services and enhance its platform, the company aims to broaden its target market, as it believes that organizations of all sizes can benefit from its AI-driven technology platform, which is designed to streamline and facilitate the process of researching and obtaining healthcare insurance.
  • HIT began development of a large-group third-party AI-powered underwriting solutions for mid-sized and larger businesses and, in 1Q25, delivered solutions to large employers, including one that employs 1k+ people.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can’t Shake The Tariff Overhang

By Sameer Taneja

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May 06
0

Most Read: Shin Kong Financial Holding, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Chongqing Rural Commercial Ban, NetEase , Gold Road Resources, Hanwha Ocean , Nan Ya Plastics, MongoDB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher
  • CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade
  • Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms
  • Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields
  • Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names
  • MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025
  • Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
  • In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.  
  • In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.

ShinKong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) – Time To Deal Is Shorter, But Risk To Peers Is Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • The last couple of days have seen the TWD increase value against the USD extremely sharply. This has caused the Shin Kong/Taishin risk arb spread to widen. 
  • There is no expectation that the merger will be delayed, but the change in USDTWD rate introduces a new dynamic into the ShinKong-as-Taishin-vs Peers trade.
  • Careful consideration of this trade going forward is worthwhile. What may have been the better trade may no longer be the better trade.

CATL: Launch of Book Building for Hong Kong Listing

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Reuters, CATL plans to launch its Hong Kong listing process including book building during the week of 12 May.
  • We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 423.6 billion RMB (up 17% YoY) and net profit of 55.6 billion RMB (up 13.1% YoY) in 2025. 
  • Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap. We believe CATL’s shares are undervalued. 

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun25: Momentum Turning Positive for This Major Rebal Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • We expect 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index during this index review based on the latest available data.

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

By Brian Freitas

  • Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
  • There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.
  • NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
  • GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
  • Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.

Rare Arb Opportunity from ATS Breakout in Korea: Day-Night Spread

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are targeting the spread between day and NXT’s after-hours, a classic arb play similar to what Japanese instos used when ATS first launched, now emerging in Korea.
  • The gap persists because institutional flow on NXT is still minimal, with recent data showing instos accounting for just 1-2% of total turnover.
  • NXT’s night session is seeing heavy retail flow, providing instos with the liquidity to trade. This creates a rare opportunity to capitalize on early inefficiencies before others catch on.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect five changes for the TDIV index and there could be index flows of US$2.5bn one-way due to capping.

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
  • The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
  • The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Frasers Hospitality Trust, UOB Kay Hian Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound 9.5% from Apr 9 lows, tracking volatility in global markets
  • Straco Chair Wu Hsioh Kwang Elevates His Stake

Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • February marks 18.7% NR yield growth MoM, 21.3% growth YoY  
  • Exports of NR too go up by an impressive 23.7% MoM  
  • Malaysian gloves set to upend China’s competition in US market  

REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound 9.5% from Apr 9 lows, tracking volatility in global markets

By Geoff Howie

  • In April 2025, S-REITs recorded a total net institutional selling of S$90.3 million and retail selling of S$54.6 million.
  • ParkwayLife REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Frasers Hospitality Trust were the top three year-to-date gainers in 2025.
  • Stoneweg European REIT obtained unitholders’ approval for stapling to form Stoneweg European Stapled Trust, enhancing tax efficiency and investment scope.

Straco Chair Wu Hsioh Kwang Elevates His Stake

By Geoff Howie

  • From Apr 25 to 30, 15 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks totaling S$5.1 million, with institutions net buying S$56.4 million of Singapore stocks.
  • Director transactions included 20 acquisitions by directors/CEOs and four acquisitions by substantial shareholders, with no disposals reported.
  • Mapletree Logistics Trust’s Q4 FY2025 revenue decreased by 0.8%, while Straco’s FY2024 revenue fell 0.8%, but net profit rose 6%.

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May 06
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Q1 Revenue and Margins Suffer On Lower International Patient Volume

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Q1 Revenue and Margins Suffer On Lower International Patient Volume

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported 6% decline in hospital revenue to THB 6,120M in 1Q25 as revenue from international patients decreased 12% YoY.
  • In 1Q25, EBITDA decreased 13% YoY to THB 2,338M, with EBITDA margin contracting 300bps YoY to 37.7% as SG&A expenses rose 6% to THB 1,084M.
  • Competition from peers like BDMS and the new co-payment rules remain near term hiccups.

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