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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Hynix, EcoPro Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
  • May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials
  • Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May


Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.

  • At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.

  • Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.


May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

  • May 17th, all eyes on EcoPro Materials for a buzzed-about lockup release. BRV Capital holds 24.5% stake, 17M shares. Lockup ends May 16th; they’re free to sell off without constraints.
  • Apparently, they’re eager to cash out, with a profit margin around 30 times and 7 years invested. Many at Yeouido bet they’ll sell out once the lockup’s over.
  • We might start building a shorting position with futures targeting this lockup release from April 22nd. This could stir up some weird backwardation, which could give us another trading opportunity.

Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the strong likelihood of potential selling of EcoPro Materials by BRV Capital Management (the second largest shareholder of Ecopro Materials with a 24.7% stake) in May 2024. 
  • BRV Capital Management’s stake in Ecopro Materials is currently worth 3.1 trillion won. In the past seven years, BRV Capital Management has invested about 93 billion won in Ecopro Materials. 
  • On 4 March, Ecopro Materials announced it has entered into a contract to supply precursor to a U.S. auto company. There is some local speculation that this could be Tesla. 

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Daily Brief United States: Reddit , TDCX, Markel Corp, VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis
  • TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger
  • Portfolio Update: February 2024
  • Reddit IPO: The Right Time To Go Public At A Reasonable Valuation
  • Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy
  • Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update
  • Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis: $1B+ Revenue and Profitable Company in 2024
  • Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios
  • Mining Monthly: February Edition


Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Reddit plans to price its IPO between $31 to $34 a share, which would suggest equity value of US$6.0 billion to US$6.5 billion on a fully diluted basis.
  • Our base case valuation of Reddit is implied market cap of US$7.9 billion or implied price of US$41.2 per share. 
  • Given the moderate upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Positive view of the Reddit IPO. 

TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 2 January, TDCX (TDCX US), a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, announced it had received a preliminary non-binding proposal from Laurent Junique to be acquired at $6.60/ADS.  
  • On the 1st March, TDCX entered in a definitive agreement by way of a short form merger at US$7.20/ADS, a 48% premium to undisturbed.
  • As Laurent Junique holds 98.4% of the voting power, there is no shareholder vote on the merger. This is done. The Offer should close in the 2Q24.  

Portfolio Update: February 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Recently, a friend of mine asked me why I own positions in Markel and Brookfield, as they do not align with my typical investment style of small niche companies trading at attractive free cash flow yields. 
  • I consider both companies as alternatives to index funds, benefiting from the expertise of two exceptional capital allocators, Tom Gayner and Bruce Flatt, at no additional cost.
  • Over time, if my investment process proves itself as sound, the positions in Markel and Brookfield should naturally decrease in size.

Reddit IPO: The Right Time To Go Public At A Reasonable Valuation

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Reddit, an American social news aggregation, content rating, and forum social network, filed to go public. The company plans to trade on the NYSE under the ticker “RDDT”.
  • Reddit was founded in 2005 by Steven Huffman, Aaron Swartz and Alexis Ohanian. The company is forecasted to surpass $1B in total revenue in 2024.
  • They chose the right time to go public. I have a positive view of the upcoming Reddit IPO and looking forward to seeing them trade as a public company.

Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

By Cam Hui

  • If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.
  • The technical pattern for gold is constructive, but not unabashedly bullish. 
  • Gold miners appear to be washed out against gold and present the best opportunity for gains in the next 6–12 months.

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

By The Commodity Report

  • CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.
  • The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.
  • CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis: $1B+ Revenue and Profitable Company in 2024

By Andrei Zakharov

  • According to Pitchbook and their S-1, Reddit has raised ~$1.5B in equity financing. Their last private round, a Series F led by Fidelity in August 2021, was around ~$10B valuation.
  • I derive a target valuation for Reddit using a ~8x EV/Revenue multiple on my 2024 estimates. The multiple represents a top-range multiple of the peer group.
  • I arrived at my ~$9.6B target valuation, which implies 50% upside to indicative IPO valuation at the midpoint. I expect Reddit will trade above their last round valuation of $10B.

Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last week was notably positive for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which both experienced impressive gains.
  • Bitcoin’s price has surged to $65,000, marking an increase of over 25%, while Ethereum has increased to $3,510, up by approximately 15%.
  • This puts Bitcoin close to its highest ever price, just below $69,000.

Mining Monthly: February Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Gold held flat in February, continuing a long period of consolidation, and most other metals were down modestly.
  • The precious metal equities further sold off in February, compounding the losses in January, highlighting to the market this industry is still out of favour.
  • We had several significant updates from companies within our coverage.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Indo Tambangraya Megah, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot
  • Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported its Q4 2023/FY23 numbers with revenues down 46%/35% YoY and profits down 58%/69% YoY on declining coal prices (113 USD/ton Vs 192 USD/ton) .
  • We expect spot coal prices to remain range-bound between 130-150 USD/ton, resulting in company profits ranging between 350-500 mn USD (4x-6x PE range) with dividend yield ranging from 11%-15%.
  • The company also has a cash buffer of 850 million USD, roughly 45% of the current market capitalization. 

Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Medco Energi’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief India: Titan Co Ltd, Macrotech Developers and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL
  • Macrotech Developers Placement – Large Deal, and Not Cheap Per Se


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) should replace Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index at the close on 27 March.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 13.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 4.2bn.
  • The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.

Macrotech Developers Placement – Large Deal, and Not Cheap Per Se

By Clarence Chu

  • Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN) is looking to raise around US$398m via a QIP.
  • The deal here will be a well flagged one with LODHA’s board having announced its intention of raising up to INR50bn via a QIP earlier in Jan 2024.
  • That being said, while representing just 3% of LODHA’s shares outstanding, the deal would be a large one to digest at 30 days of its three month ADV.

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Daily Brief Japan: Socionext, JSR Corp, ZOZO Inc, Trial Holdings, Sanyo Trading, Srg Takamiya and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out
  • Trial Holdings IPO – Not Wholly Convinced but a Strong Market Should Help
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Small Secondary Offering as Banks Sell, More Later
  • 3Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)


Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • The changes to the Nikkei 225 Average for the March 2024 Review were announced today after the close. A little earlier than I expected. 
  • Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; Takara Hldgs, Sumi Osaka Cement, Pacific Metals OUT. Nitori PAF increase. US$4bn+ to trade one way on 29Mar close. One interesting surprise. 
  • Overall more impactful than it looks. And it changes the front-end arithmetic on Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There may be fun on the DELETEs.

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP)’s shares rose 4.8% due to a Nikkan Kogyo article that states that JIC will start the tender within the month due to concluding negotiations with SAMR. 
  • Caution is warranted as JSR has not provided a customary timeline update, no confirmatory disclosure from SAMR and JSR’s response to SUNY RF’s claims are yet to be filed.
  • Based on current information, there are five possible tender scenarios. In the worst case, the downside risk on a deal break should be muted due to the market re-rating. 

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

By Brian Freitas


Trial Holdings IPO – Not Wholly Convinced but a Strong Market Should Help

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise up to US$259m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO range.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Small Secondary Offering as Banks Sell, More Later

By Travis Lundy

  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) is a small specialised trading company (rubber, polymers, elastomers, etc). Niche, decent profitability/margins, highish ROE.
  • Banks in the MUFG and SMBC family are selling. Norinchukin is selling a bit too. 
  • This is small in size but big in impact. 20% of Max RWF. 50d ADV. Unlike other recent, larger, offerings, this has no flow mitigants. But it’s cheap.

3Q Follow-Up – Takamiya (2445 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Takamiya announced its 3Q FY24/3 consolidated sales of ¥32,183 mn (+4.9% YoY), operating profit of ¥2,405 mn (+49.7% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥2,526 mn (+46.5% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of ¥1,727 mn (+46.9% YoY).
  • All the segments, sales business, rental business and overseas business, posted an increase in operating profit YoY.
  • Especially, rental business became a driving force of the expansion of the whole business. 

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Most Read: Nippon Express Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Yankuang Energy Group, Air Lease Corp, Flight Centre Travel, China Telecom (H), Great Wall Motor, Bizlink Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147) Secondary Offering – Banks, Sompo, Others Sell – “2024 Problem” Looms
  • JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions
  • Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS’ US$8.2bn Allocation
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM
  • S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think
  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)
  • Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!


Nippon Express (9147) Secondary Offering – Banks, Sompo, Others Sell – “2024 Problem” Looms

By Travis Lundy

  • Today post-close, Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) announced a secondary offering. Total size is ~¥30bn before considering where it will price; 11-12 days of ADV, 4.6% of shares out.
  • Various banks, Toyota-related auto cos, and Sompo Japan will sell. This is a start to the unwind, but it is a very small portion of the total cross-holding position. 
  • NX also announced an on-market  buyback of up to ¥10bn to run from 11April -31July 2024. This, and index demand, mitigate some heaviness. But The 2024 Problem looms large.

JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

By Travis Lundy

  • For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
  • The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to One (relatively) Simple Indicator.
  • Foreigners have a lot of ammunition left. But cross-holding unwinds are picking up, and buybacks are too, and dividend reinvestments are smaller than public pension selling. Which way next?

Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS’ US$8.2bn Allocation

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.
  • Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.
  • Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

By Brian Freitas

  • The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
  • The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
  • Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think

By Travis Lundy


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index in March.
  • The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&P/ASX 20 Index and S&P/ASX 100 Index too.
  • There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)

By Travis Lundy

  • A share indices were up on the week. HK stock indices were down except for HS Tech. H-shares with A-share pairs were up. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$9.1bn in the second post-holiday week after being +HK$20bn in the first week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side. Still.
  • SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.

Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.8 million shares (including overallotment). There are seven selling shareholders.
  • The secondary offering comes ahead of the implementation of regulatory restrictions on truck drivers’ overtime in April 2024, which is widely known as the ‘2024 Problem’.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 11 and 13 March (likely 11 March).

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.
  • Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards “The People Must Endure.”

Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the March 2024 index rebal event for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st March 2024.
  • The confirmed changes for T50 and T100 were captured in our expectations but an additional change we expected did not materialize which adversely affected our flow expectations for March 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Air Lease Corp, Bizlink Holding, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicles Group , RB Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names
  • Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price
  • CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential
  • Rb Global Inc (RBA.) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023


S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think

By Travis Lundy


Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the March 2024 index rebal event for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st March 2024.
  • The confirmed changes for T50 and T100 were captured in our expectations but an additional change we expected did not materialize which adversely affected our flow expectations for March 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 23.5bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +49bn the previous four trading weeks. More efforts by authorities to eliminate selling.
  • No finance names of any kind in the top ten this week after 5/10 the week before. Slight tendencies to trade on reversion.

Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$220m from selling their stakes in Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP).
  • Overall, the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 11 days of Nippon Express’ three month ADV, and 4.8% of the firm’s total shares outstanding.
  • Together with the announcement, the firm has also guided towards a share buyback program which should provide some share price support a month post-deal,  in our view.

CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

By Mohshin Aziz

  • CIMC Vehicles Group (301039 CH) (CIMCV) is a leading global manufacturer of semi-trailers and various truck bodies that is the mainstay of heavy ground goods transport  
  • 9M23 earnings surged by 216% and beat consensus, scope for further earnings upgrade as the business and management outlook statement is very positive   
  • Our target price of CNY12.50 (+31% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 15x – a 10% discount against the industry leader Caterpillar 

Rb Global Inc (RBA.) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Ritchie Brothers has faced challenges such as contentious acquisition, activist involvement, dilutive financing, and firing of key executives
  • Despite these challenges, the company’s profitability has been improving significantly
  • Author believes RB Global’s earnings power will continue to grow, potentially reaching $5 per share by 2025, presenting a favorable comparison to the current share price in the $60s

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Entree Resources, Pembina Pipeline , Teck Resources , Triple Flag Precious Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) – JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec
  • China A50 ETF Rebalance: Four Changes in March
  • Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline
  • Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Major Drivers
  • Teck Resources Limited: Initiation Of Coverage – 6 Growth Catalysts
  • Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023


Merger Arb Mondays (04 Mar) – JSR, Shinko, Outsourcing, APM, Alumina, Adbri, Azure, CSR, Probiotec

By Arun George



Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.
  • Entree Resources (ETG CN) is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.
  • Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?

Pembina Pipeline Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on midstream major, Pembina Pipeline Corporation.
  • The company’s Q4 2023 earnings signaled a robust financial position, with quarterly earnings reaching $698 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of over $1 billion.
  • This result was bolstered by growing volumes across numerous systems and a strong year from the firm’s marketing business.

Teck Resources Limited: Initiation Of Coverage – 6 Growth Catalysts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on natural resource exploration player, Teck Resources Limited.
  • The company showed a strong fourth quarter performance across their business, advancing operations at QB and reporting a record-breaking quarterly copper production.
  • This also led to an Adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion in Q4 and $6.4 billion for the year.

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Gold is reaching all-time highs due to declining real rates
  • Investing in precious metals royalty and streaming companies, like Triple Flag Precious Metals, is recommended
  • Triple Flag offers strong qualities and relative valuation discount compared to larger counterparts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Air Lease Corp, Bizlink Holding, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicles Group , RB Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names
  • Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price
  • CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential
  • Rb Global Inc (RBA.) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023


S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think

By Travis Lundy


Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the March 2024 index rebal event for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st March 2024.
  • The confirmed changes for T50 and T100 were captured in our expectations but an additional change we expected did not materialize which adversely affected our flow expectations for March 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 23.5bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +49bn the previous four trading weeks. More efforts by authorities to eliminate selling.
  • No finance names of any kind in the top ten this week after 5/10 the week before. Slight tendencies to trade on reversion.

Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$220m from selling their stakes in Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP).
  • Overall, the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 11 days of Nippon Express’ three month ADV, and 4.8% of the firm’s total shares outstanding.
  • Together with the announcement, the firm has also guided towards a share buyback program which should provide some share price support a month post-deal,  in our view.

CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

By Mohshin Aziz

  • CIMC Vehicles Group (301039 CH) (CIMCV) is a leading global manufacturer of semi-trailers and various truck bodies that is the mainstay of heavy ground goods transport  
  • 9M23 earnings surged by 216% and beat consensus, scope for further earnings upgrade as the business and management outlook statement is very positive   
  • Our target price of CNY12.50 (+31% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 15x – a 10% discount against the industry leader Caterpillar 

Rb Global Inc (RBA.) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Ritchie Brothers has faced challenges such as contentious acquisition, activist involvement, dilutive financing, and firing of key executives
  • Despite these challenges, the company’s profitability has been improving significantly
  • Author believes RB Global’s earnings power will continue to grow, potentially reaching $5 per share by 2025, presenting a favorable comparison to the current share price in the $60s

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: China Telecom (H), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Oobit Technologies UAB, Universal Display, Warner Bros Discovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE
  • Tether, Solana co-founder back Oobit’s US$25M Series A round | e27
  • Universal Display Corporation (OLED) – Long-term partnerships with OLED manufacturers & 5 Growth Factors In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Enhanced Content Distribution


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)

By Travis Lundy

  • A share indices were up on the week. HK stock indices were down except for HS Tech. H-shares with A-share pairs were up. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$9.1bn in the second post-holiday week after being +HK$20bn in the first week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side. Still.
  • SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR
  • UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract
  • ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level

Tether, Solana co-founder back Oobit’s US$25M Series A round | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based crypto payment app Oobit has concluded its US$25 million Series A investment round.
  • The backers in this round include the investment arm of USDT parent company Tether, CMCC Global’s Titan Fund, 468 Capital, and Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko.
  • The startup plans to use the funds to expand into Latin America, the UAE, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Australia beyond its primary markets in the European Union and the UK.

Universal Display Corporation (OLED) – Long-term partnerships with OLED manufacturers & 5 Growth Factors In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Universal Display Corporation (UDC), a leading provider of OLED technology and materials, experienced a revenue of $576 million, operating income of $217 million, and net income of $203 million in 2023.
  • Its robust display impacted net income per diluted share, which amounted to $4.24.
  • Several factors on both sides of the company’s balance sheet deserve attention while crafting an investment thesis.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Enhanced Content Distribution

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Bros.
  • Discovery is striving to create a pathway to growth in an evolving media industry as reflected in the Q4 Earnings.
  • The company had prioritized achieving a well-grounded financial position and reducing its leverage, successfully lowering its debt by $5.4 billion in 2023 and expecting continued deleveraging in 2024.

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