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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, DS Smith PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported
  • Spread on Paper so Far


Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported

By Suhas Reddy

  • US commercial crude oil inventory build-up slows while refined products’ withdrawal accelerates.
  • OPEC+ members announced the extension of their voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day to end of June (from end of March as previously announced).
  • US refinery utilisation rates show signs of a speedy recovery, rises for the second consecutive week and jumps to 84.9%.

Spread on Paper so Far

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Gross spread (as of 13 March closing) on an estimated 1 Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) x 0.2701 DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN) exchange equation is 5.6%. New PUSU is 4 April.
  • The merger would create a European board and packaging giant. Interloper risk seems low, as are the chances of the deal being contested by antitrust regulators. 
  • Mondi and DS Smith are verifying the anticipated synergies resulting from their combination. Considering synergies of 3% of DS Smith revenues, the present value might not cover the premium offered.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Volpara Health Technologies, CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A, Qyuns Therapeutics, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Volpara Health (VHT AU): 12th April Shareholder Vote
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way
  • Volpara Health (VHT AU): Scheme Vote on 12 April
  • Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • OCI Or No OCI, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) Will Continue to Roar on Strong Base Business and Pipeline


Volpara Health (VHT AU): 12th April Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 14 December, Volpara Health (VHT AU), which makes software enabling the early detection of breast cancer, announced an Offer by way of a Scheme with Lunit (328130 KS)
  • NZ’s OIO approval was satisfied on the 31 January. The  Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 12th April.
  • Lunit is offering Volpara shareholders A$1.15/share, in cash, a 47.4% premium to last close. Cornerstone investors with 25.92% of shares out are supportive. The IE says terms are fair.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

Volpara Health (VHT AU): Scheme Vote on 12 April

By Arun George

  • The Volpara Health Technologies (VHT AU) IE considers Lunit (328130 KS)‘s A$1.15 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.67-0.82 per share valuation range. 
  • NZ OIO approval has been received. The scheme is conditional on shareholders’ approval by more than 75% of votes cast and more than 50% of shareholders.
  • The scheme vote will get up as the offer is attractive vs. historical trading ranges. At the last close and for the 21 May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.2%/13.0%.

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest concern here is the uncertain commercialization outlook of Qyuns’s pipeline, mainly due to both industry factors in the field of autoimmune and allergic diseases and Qyuns’s own problems.
  • Qyuns is overvalued. There’re rumors that Qyuns was “not popular” in primary market when fundraising, perhaps due to Dr. Yu Guoliang’s past unsuccessful experience which made investors suffered losses before.
  • By reducing the size of IPO to maintain high share price, this IPO may “look successful”.Investors can seize this opportunity to take profits in time, but long-term hold isn’t recommended.

OCI Or No OCI, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) Will Continue to Roar on Strong Base Business and Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 2023, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) reported 12% and 40% growth in revenue and operating profit, respectively, driven by double-digit revenue increase from Rosuzet and improving performance of China subsidiary.
  • In January, the company has enrolled first patient in phase 3 trial of type 2 diabetes/obesity drug candidate Efpeglenatide. The study is expected to complete in 2026.
  • Hanmi Science-OCI merger has hit a roadblock. Although merger with OCI will bring synergistic effect, Hanmi Pharm will continue to grow even if the merger does not happen.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, BQE Water , Qantm Intellectual Property, Duskin Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry
  • Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals
  • Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry

By Atrium Research

  • BQE’s recurring revenue is growing as a percentage of total revenue, making its business more predictable and stable.
  • The Company has major tailwinds from increasing environmental regulations on water discharge as well as increasing mining capex.
  • BQE’s EBITDA margins have been steadily improving over the past five years due to its asset-light model, reaching 22% in 2023E. 

Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th Feb, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced a NBIO from UK-based Rouse International; but opted not to disclose price, DD, or even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • Then on the 12th March, Qantm announced a NBIO from Adamantem Capital, by way of a Scheme, of $1.817/share in cash or with a scrip election of up to 50%
  • Qantm secured a trading halt yesterday morning, presumably to flesh out the best Offer for shareholders. Will IPH Ltd (IPH AU) throw its hat into the ring, again?

Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Duskin Co Ltd (4665 JP) operates a Dust Control business where it rents mops and mats to residential and commercial customers through franchisees.
  • In FY03/23, Duskin posted revenue of JPY170.5bn, operating profit of JPY8.6bn, recurring profit of JPY11.4bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY7.2bn.
  • Duskin Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of a portion of its treasury stock.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Luckin Coffee, JD.com , Dongwon Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, TVS Motor , Belle Fashion Group, Dr Horton Inc, Campbell Soup Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24
  • JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers
  • An Update of the Potential KOSPI200 Rebalance Candidates in June 2024
  • Will Parent Company Valuations Remain Undervalued Until the Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Dissolved?
  • Fundamental Longs – TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up
  • Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates
  • D.R. Horton: Building a New Model – [Business Breakdowns, EP.154]
  • The Campbell Soup Company: Can The Acquisition Of Sovos Brands Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers


Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24

By Eric Wen

  • We cut Luckin Coffee’s 1Q24 revenue estimate by 3% to RMB7.9bn with 79% yoy and cut non-GAAP net income estimate by 42% to RMB318mn due to (1) weak sales;
  • We expect 2Q24 to be the turning point for earnings due to (1) sales improving with weather warm-up (2) ASP rebound from easing competition 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating but lower TP by US$4 to US$37 to factor in the temporary near-term weak sale.

JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com’s latest earnings showed a strong commitment to growth, navigating a mix of macro recoveries, seasonality factors and strategic refocus.
  • They delivered a growth in net revenues by 4% and recorded a non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 8.4 billion.
  • Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short term investments totaled RMB 198 billion.

An Update of the Potential KOSPI200 Rebalance Candidates in June 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an update of the potential KOSPI200 rebalance candidates in June 2024. 
  • The bottom 5% market caps in KOSPI200 could be excluded from the KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2024. These 10 stocks are down on average 12.6% YTD. 
  • We identified seven potential inclusion candidates. Among them, those that have low PBR multiples including HHI and Dongwon Industries could continue to outperform the market leading up to rebalance announcement. 

Will Parent Company Valuations Remain Undervalued Until the Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Dissolved?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s true that the difference in profit margins between a listed subsidiary that focuses on specific business and a parent company that has different businesses is the difference in valuations. 
  • It will be difficult for a parent company to reverse the valuations of its subsidiaries until the parent company dissolves the parent-subsidiary listing and increases its own profit margins.
  • With respect to corporate governance practices, companies with no major shareholders are included with relatively higher corporate governance scores, but this isn’t as significant difference as it tends to be.

Fundamental Longs – TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.
  • Stocks discussed include TVS Motor (TVSL IN), Nestle India (NEST IN), and Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) 
  • TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. 

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates

By Sumeet Singh

  • Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.
  • As per F&S, it was the largest player in China’s fashion footwear market with a 12.3% market share, based on 2022 retail sales.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance based on its earlier filings in 2022. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

D.R. Horton: Building a New Model – [Business Breakdowns, EP.154]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Ed Wachenheim, founder of Greenhaven Capital, discusses his experience in the homebuilding industry since the 1980s
  • Ed shares insights on the evolution of the homebuilding business model and his investment approach
  • Early investment in US Home led to a deep dive into the industry, identifying growth opportunities and the impact of market crises.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The Campbell Soup Company: Can The Acquisition Of Sovos Brands Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Campbell Soup Company’s earnings were decent and the company reported moderately optimistic results and future predictions for the company.
  • Clouse highlighted a sequential improvement in volume trends and year-over-year operating margin expansion in both divisions, despite slowed category trends over the last year due to economic pressures.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Financials: QV Equities Ltd, Fairfax India Holdings, Bitcoin, J Trust Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • QV Equities (QVE AU) Backs WAM Leaders’ Cash/Scrip Offer
  • Fairfax India Hldgs Corp (FIH.U) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023
  • Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024
  • J Trust (8508): Full-Year FY12/23 Update


QV Equities (QVE AU) Backs WAM Leaders’ Cash/Scrip Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 31 Jan, WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU), said it intended to make an off-market Offer after QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) rejected its all-scrip NBIO.
  • WAM and QVE have now entered into a Scheme. The current scrip terms are 0.7609 new WAM shares per QVE share; OR A$1.02/share cash. Terms will be adjusted …
  • … in accordance with the most recently released NTA/shares of WAM and QVE. QVE shareholders are also expected to receive the quarterly dividend of A$0.013/share. 

Fairfax India Hldgs Corp (FIH.U) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Fairfax India’s stock price may increase due to potential higher valuations
  • Company’s fee structure may be high but offers opportunity for strong returns
  • Investment in Fairfax India provides discounted opportunity with growth potential, specifically through ownership in Bangalore airport

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024

By Ocular

  • There has been a renewed wave of optimism towards web3 in light of recent events, including the approval of the long-awaited spot Bitcoin ETF; and the surge in market activity in the early months of 2024.
  • On the regulatory front, we have seen the conclusion of several high-profile court cases and lawsuits, including some of the charges involving Ripple and Binance.
  • Beyond the results of the rulings (which many argue are in favour/support of web3), the resolution of these cases in itself has provided greater clarity and stability to the ecosystem.

J Trust (8508): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) is a financial services group operating banking and finance businesses in Asia. 
  • In FY12/23, the company reported full-year consolidated operating revenue of JPY114.3bn, operating profit of JPY8.1bn, pre-tax profit of JPY9.8bn, and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY16.3bn.
  • On February 13, 2024, J Trust Co., Ltd. announced it has resolved on matters concerning the repurchase and cancellation of own shares.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): Enchem and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): Enchem, Hmm


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): Enchem, Hmm

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Mar 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Enchem Co Ltd, and Hmm Co Ltd.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts
  • Ohayo Japan | Inflation Runs Hot…but Nvidia Is Hotter
  • Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries
  • LG Electronics: Investment In Bear Robotics and Aggressive Plans to Expand in Global Robotics


Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

By William Keating

  • Forecasting PC & Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on “AI Enablement”
  • Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers
  • Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. 

Ohayo Japan | Inflation Runs Hot…but Nvidia Is Hotter

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rallied on Tuesday despite hotter-than-expected inflation data with core CPI +3.1% YoY
  • Bitcoin continued its record rally, surpassing $72,000. Oracle shares surged 12% on cloud computing progress. Nvidia climbed 7%.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda remarked that while the economy was on a path of recovery, there were signs of weakness, especially highlighted by recent soft data on consumption. 

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

By Osbert Tang, CFA


LG Electronics: Investment In Bear Robotics and Aggressive Plans to Expand in Global Robotics

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss LG Electronics (066570 KS) ‘s investment in Bear Robotics (US) and LG Electronics’ aggressive ambitions to become a major player in the global robotics industry. 
  • LG Electronics announced that it invested a $60 million Series C funding round in Bear Robotics, a Silicon Valley based company that provides service robotics and artificial intelligence solutions.
  • One of the key goals of LG Electronics is to expand into the global robotics software market, which is expected to grow to about 100 trillion won in eight years.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China South City and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure


Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: ITC $2bn Placement – Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ITC $2bn Placement – Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo
  • Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. – This GLP-1 Biotech Has Gloomy Outlook


ITC $2bn Placement – Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Feb 2024,  BAT’s management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.
  • BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. – This GLP-1 Biotech Has Gloomy Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • PB-119 (T2DM) has the fastest R&D progress, but this is a highly competitive market.China’s diabetes drug market is dominated by traditional drugs. It’s not easy for PegBio to break through. 
  • Since the future competitive landscape of GLP-1s (obesity) would present a very different situation.If PB-119 fails to have better weight loss effect, it would be eliminated due to fierce competition.
  • PegBio’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. We’re not optimistic about its future commercialization performance. Together with cash-flow issues, we doubt whether PegBio would bring expected returns to investors.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
  • Li Ning (2331 HK): Value Trap Play?
  • Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
  • KRX’s Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Some New Trade Ideas
  • QV Equities (QVE AU): WAM Leaders (WLE AU)’s Binding Scheme Proposal
  • StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
  • MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
  • I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
  • Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.

Li Ning (2331 HK): Value Trap Play?

By David Blennerhassett


Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that due to the steep share price declines, Mr Li Ning is considering leading a consortium to privatise Li Ning (2331 HK)
  • The shares have been weighed down by concerns about channel inventory, steep retail discounts, and unauthorised distributor sales. To counter this, Li Ning aims to achieve RMB50bn sales by 2028.
  • The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades at an undemanding valuation. 

KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group

By Douglas Kim

  • There is an increasing probability that KCC Corp is closer to separating the ownership structures of the three Chung brothers regarding the various KCC Group related companies.
  • KCC’s 9.17% stake in Samsung C&T is worth 2.8 trillion won. KCC’s stake in Samsung C&T is worth 117% of KCC’s own market cap. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests NAV of 355,925 won per share, representing a 30% upside from current levels.

KRX’s Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.
  • Ecopro Materials’ SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.
  • We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July’s in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

By Arun George

  • Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Alcoa (AA US) at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.
  • While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. 
  • Regulatory approvals are a formality, and Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Some New Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I continue to expect 5 changes for SSE 50 and 18 changes for SSE 180 but some names have changed since my last insight.

QV Equities (QVE AU): WAM Leaders (WLE AU)’s Binding Scheme Proposal

By Arun George

  • QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) has disclosed a binding scheme proposal from WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU) consisting of a cash and scrip consideration pegged to pre-tax NTA per share.
  • The indicative value of the cash proposal is A$1.02, and the scrip is A$1.058 (0.7609 WLE shares per QVE share). Shareholders are entitled to an A$0.013 March quarter dividend. 
  • The offer is attractive, and the shareholder structure facilitates the vote. At the last close, the gross spread of the scrip + dividend offer is 8.1%.

StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

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