Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• 9M 2025 unaudited results (17 Oct): 1.03 Moz gold, US$905 m profit, 26% margin; operational ramp intact despite AISC at US$1,574/oz.
• Strong listing: IPO HK$71.6 → current HK$131.3 (+83%), backed by US$1.6 bn cornerstones (GIC, BlackRock etc.).
• Valuation & risk: Trades ~8.5× EV/EBITDA; fair value HK$115–145/sh; key risks — execution, Kazakhstan policy, Colombia security.

• China announced game approval for the October batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.

• LAM beats largely Sept-25 (15% above), Dec-25 guidance slightly above (4%), long-term drivers are concrete: $100bn in Data Center = 8bn in semi equipment, $40bn of NAND equipment to upgrade.
• LAM is gaining share (depo / etch growing faster than litho), is ahead in the new stuff (Moly ALD, dry resist EUV). YTD Net Income is up 44%. Very impressive.
• Among Semi Equipment stocks, LRCX is the best performer YTD: up 88%. LRCX is trading at +2.5 standard deviations: 30x forward EPS versus average 17x. Time to sell.

• Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.
• These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.
• KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.

• Federal Bank delivered record net interest income (NII) and fee income in Q2 FY26, while net profit fell ~9½ % YoY. 
• Core earnings momentum is intact—CASA growth, margin uptick, asset quality improving—but elevated provisions and subdued credit growth raise questions on earnings durability.
• He bank is executing on key levers, but investors need clarity on the earnings runway and capital/deposit growth ahead—read on for the deeper dive.

• Pony AI is a leading autonomous vehicle (AV) technology company with a strategic dual focus on the US and Chinese markets, developing Level 4 autonomous driving systems for robotaxis and commercial trucking.
• The company is in a high-growth, pre-profitability phase, marked by surging revenues from its expanding robotaxi services and technology licensing, but also significant cash burn due to heavy R&D and operational investments.
• Key catalysts include the mass production of its cost-efficient 7th-generation hardware, strategic partnerships with major automotive OEMs like Toyota and Stellantis, and a planned secondary listing in Hong Kong to fund future expansion.

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• Nektar Therapeutics is back in Wall Street’s spotlight after reports and social media speculation suggested that pharmaceutical heavyweight Eli Lilly may be exploring a potential acquisition of the biotech company.
• Shares surged roughly 8% following the chatter, extending a 294% year-to-date rally that has lifted its market capitalization to over $1 billion.
• The speculation arrives at a pivotal time for Nektar, whose lead candidate, rezpegaldesleukin (REZPEG), has produced promising results in moderate to severe atopic dermatitis and is advancing toward Phase III readiness by early 2026.

• Synspective is a Japanese space-tech company specializing in the development and operation of a constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites, known as StriX. The company provides SAR data and value-added analytical solutions to government and commercial clients for applications such as disaster monitoring, infrastructure management, and urban planning.
• The company is in a high-growth phase, aiming to expand its satellite constellation to 30 satellites by the latter half of the 2020s to enable near real-time global observation. This expansion is capital-intensive, reflected in the company’s current unprofitability and negative cash flows.
• The satellite-based Earth observation market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand for geospatial data and advancements in satellite technology. Synspective is well-positioned to capture a share of this expanding market, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, but faces intense competition from established and emerging players.

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• Seiren is a global leader in high-performance textiles, with a dominant position in the automotive interior market, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The company is poised to benefit from the growing demand for advanced, functional, and aesthetically pleasing materials in vehicles.
• The company’s proprietary ‘Viscotecs’ digital production system provides a significant competitive advantage, enabling mass customization, short delivery times, and inventory-free production. This technology is a key driver of efficiency and innovation, allowing expansion into non-textile applications.
• Financial performance has been robust, with a strong track record of revenue, net income, and dividend growth. High resilience and momentum scores, coupled with a solid balance sheet, position the company well for future investments and shareholder returns.

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• Coocon Corp is a key player in South Korea’s rapidly expanding fintech sector, providing essential data and payment API infrastructure to a wide range of clients including financial institutions and tech companies.
• The company is demonstrating robust financial performance, characterized by significant revenue and net income growth, driven by the acceleration of financial service digitalization and supportive government policies like Open Banking and MyData.
• While the outlook is positive due to secular growth trends, Coocon faces notable risks from an increasingly competitive landscape and potential changes in financial regulations that could impact future growth and profitability.

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