All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield
  • TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel
  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Buy the Dip; Time to Reap Benefit of Business Expansion
  • NTGR: The Value of an Upgrade Cycle
  • China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – 24H1 Looks Challenging, but Things Get Better in 24H2
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Net cash up by >US$40 mm since YE23
  • Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Initiating a strategic review of the Transitional Power business to focus on gas
  • Hardman & Co Research: Tissue Regenix (TRX) – Six consecutive periods of >20% growth
  • BQE: Q4 Financials Preview
  • Utilico Emerging Markets Trust – Quality of UEM’s assets is underappreciated


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Elite Commercial REIT’s CEO, Mr Joshua Liaw.

In the upcoming webinar, Joshua will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sumeet Singh

Sumeet will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of giving back to our community, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our exclusive lucky draw. 

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Monday, 15 April 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Elite Commercial REIT

Elite Commercial REIT (“Elite REIT”) is a Singapore real estate investment trust established with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in commercial real-estate related assets in the United Kingdom (“UK”). Elite REIT is the only UK REIT listed in Pound sterling on the Singapore Exchange.

Elite REIT’s portfolio (“Portfolio”) comprises predominantly freehold properties strategically located mainly in town centres, and near amenities and transportation nodes. The Portfolio offers a stable government-backed income stream with over 99% of the gross rental income derived from the UK Government, backed by AA-rated sovereign credit strength. The leases are on triple net basis and Elite REIT is one of the largest providers of critical social infrastructure to the Department for Work and Pensions (“DWP”) and other UK Government departments. The DWP is the UK’s largest public service department that is responsible for welfare, pensions and child maintenance policy, serving over 20 million claimants and customers. The Portfolio is part of the crucial social infrastructure through which the DWP provides services to local communities.


TSMC Snags US CHIPS Act Funding & Ups The Ante On Intel

By William Keating

  • TSMC snags $6.6 billion in US CHIPS Act funding, along with loans up to $5 billion and tax credits up to 25% on eligible capital expenditures
  • TSMC has committed to building a third fab in Arizona, scheduled to begin operations around 2030
  • TSMC’s reiteration of their world class CAGR, Gross Margin & ROE numbers shines a light on Intel’s vastly inferior performance outlook.

Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Buy the Dip; Time to Reap Benefit of Business Expansion

By Tina Banerjee

  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) opened 57 facilities during FY20–23, which raised total borrowings 37% YoY to ¥17B in FY23 and further to ¥19B at the end of Q1FY24.
  • The impact of the monetary policy is expected to be immaterial based on the current interest incidence of just 0.44%. Interest expenses account for less than 1% of revenue.
  • Amvis started FY24 on a solid note, with all key parameters reporting more than 30% YoY growth in Q1FY24. The company has reiterated full-year FY24 guidance.

NTGR: The Value of an Upgrade Cycle

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The first quarter is seasonally the softest for selling wireless routers. The expectations for NTGR are for the firm to generate positive free cash flow while revenue declines sequentially. 
  • We are anticipating NTGR’s cash per share to reach approximately $12 for the March quarter and maintain a forecast of $14 per share by the end of 2024
  • The price competition at the lower end remains unchanged and dependent on NTGR clearing out inventory ahead of the peak selling period in the second half of the year

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – 24H1 Looks Challenging, but Things Get Better in 24H2

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shineway’s performance in 23H2 was disappointing, mainly due to the VBP of formula granules and anti-corruption campaign. Accordingly, TCM injection and TCM formula granule businesses had negative growth in 23Q4.
  • As the NHSA has further lifted the reimbursement restrictions on Chinese medicine injections, Shineway’s injection business is expected to help “hedge against” the headwinds in TCM formula granule business.
  • 24H1 growth is under pressure due to 23H1 high base. Growth in 24H2 would pick up.As long as TCM favorable policies remain, profit is expected to increase by 20%-30% annually.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Net cash up by >US$40 mm since YE23

By Auctus Advisors

  • 1Q24 production was 21.9 mbbl/d in line with our expectations.
  • Production at the end of March was ~23 mbbl/d.
  • Net cash of US$193.6 mm (US$176.3 mm unrestricted) was high given that the company sold only 1.8 mmbbl in 1Q24 with inventory building-up ~0.21 mmbbl vs YE23 to 0.9 mmbbl.

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Initiating a strategic review of the Transitional Power business to focus on gas

By Auctus Advisors

  • The farm-out transaction with Energean has now completed.
  • Chariot has received the US$10 mm cash upfront payment and retains 30% of in the Lixus licence (where the Anchois project is located) and 37.5% of the Rissana licence, offshore Morocco.
  • A rig contract has also been signed with Stena Drilling to drill the high impact Anchois-East appraisal and development well in 3Q24.

Hardman & Co Research: Tissue Regenix (TRX) – Six consecutive periods of >20% growth

By Hardman & Co

  • TRX is focused on the development and commercialisation of two proprietary processing technologies for the repair of soft tissue (dCELL®) and bone (BioRinse®).
  • It has a broad portfolio of products used in biosurgery, orthopaedics and dental markets.
  • Investment in tissue processing, manufacturing capacity and strong commercial partners, together with its “4S” strategy, has generated six consecutive reporting periods of strong growth, with TRX turning EBITDA-positive in 2023.

BQE: Q4 Financials Preview

By Atrium Research

  • BQE will be reporting Q4 & 2023 financial results in ~2 weeks, we are expecting proportional revenue of $4.2M, gross margin of 45%, and adj. EBITDA of $0.6M (14% margin).
  • Metals prices have been rising steadily over the last month with copper up 9%.
  • BQE’s China JV has leverage to the copper price as it sells recovered metals.

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust – Quality of UEM’s assets is underappreciated

By Edison Investment Research

Utilico Emerging Markets Trust’s (UEM’s) manager Charles Jillings, at specialist investor ICM, is very excited about the prospects for the trust’s investee companies. He believes that investors underappreciate the quality of these businesses and the teams that manage them. Jillings travels extensively, along with deputy portfolio managers Jacqueline Broers and Jonathan Groocock, meeting with current portfolio and other firms and relevant organisations in emerging markets. They report first hand that companies in the fund are performing very well, with robust top-line growth and cost reductions leading to higher margins. Because of the nature of UEM’s holdings in infrastructure and utility assets, the fund has a consistently low beta. Successful stock selection has led to the trust’s NAV outperformance versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the last one, three, five and 10 years – most notably over the last three years. Since inception in 2005, UEM’s NAV total return compounded at 9.5% per year.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami’s Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami’s Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 ADDs/DELs Possible but Should Be Monitored Closely
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Bullish Names Outperform Bearish Names Again


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami’s Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

By Travis Lundy

  • Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san’s company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns. 
  • As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.
  • Then it fell, and hasn’t recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index. 

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 ADDs/DELs Possible but Should Be Monitored Closely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes resulting in a one-way flow of around US$531mn but there is still room for the expectations to change.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Pass The🍿as the Board Responds to AZ-COM Maruwa (9090 JP)

By Arun George

  • The Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) Board has responded with several questions regarding AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s pre-conditional hostile offer of JPY3,000 per share.
  • The Board questions the transaction’s schedule, terms and potential synergies. The Board has also used the ruse that due diligence access would justify a higher offer price.
  • Expect several rounds of Q&A and a delay to the tender start. If shares continue trading through terms ahead of the tender start, AZ-COM Maruwa will likely have to bump. 

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 8 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn (US$1.34bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The inflows into mainland China ETFs have further increased the flow and impact on the potential changes. The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes.

Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) raised US$513m by selling 15% of the shares outstanding in Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN). Post the sale, they still hold 15% of the company.
  • Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN) will start trading on 12 April and the grey market indicates the stock will open at INR 664/share, 16.5% higher than the IPO price.
  • Bharti Hexacom should be added to one smallcap index in August and another smallcap index in December. A move above INR 700/share could result in midcap inclusion in December.

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Bullish Names Outperform Bearish Names Again

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?
  • Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish
  • EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!
  • US CPI Review: Inflation is accelerating, no return to 2% in sight
  • [US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation
  • US CPI Inflation 3.48% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Mar-24
  • 5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China
  • New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Apr-24
  • Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Apr-24
  • Norway CPI Inflation 3.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.2%) in Mar-24


Will Copper Shine Brighter than Gold?

By Pranay Yadav

  • Copper supply facing headwinds with a shortage of copper ore which has led to spiraling copper refining margins.
  • Copper futures trading sharply higher than cash prices and term structure for copper futures has steepened. 
  • Gold to copper ratio can be used to express a bullish view on copper prices with relatively lower risk compared to a straightforward long copper position. 

Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

By Pranay Yadav

  • TSE market reforms are helping underperforming Japanese firms improve profitability. 
  • Japanese equities remain undervalued relative to the US with lower P/E and PEG ratios. While Japanese firms still lag on CAPEX growth, dividend growth has been higher than the US.
  • Nikkei faces headwinds from the potential strengthening of the Yen as BoJ shifts towards less accommodative policy. For now, the impact is minimal. 

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

By Andreas Steno

  • The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.
  • As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.
  • We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.

US CPI Review: Inflation is accelerating, no return to 2% in sight

By Andreas Steno

  • US inflation printed at 0.4% in both headline- and core terms, which was in line with our nowcasts and substantially above embedded market expectations.
  • In full transparency, we didn’t get everything right, but the broadness of the continued inflation in services and the early signs of a re-acceleration in goods prices outside of cars rhyme with our predictions.
  • Especially transportation services keep printing at levels that are way too hot for the Fed to take comfort in and it is likely a hint of a re-increasing momentum in wage expectations and wage growth.

[US CPI Preview] Rising Gasoline Prices & Shelter Costs to Result in Hot US Inflation

By Pranay Yadav

  • US CPI remains well above Fed’s 2% target range. Rising gasoline and shelter costs will push March CPI number upwards.
  • Consensus is for March CPI to print at 3.4% YoY in March from 3.2% in Feb. Core CPI is expected to clock 3.7% YoY. 
  • Rising CPI will dent the likelihood of rate cut in the near term. Fed has reiterated its data dependence. Hot CPI data will vindicate Fed’s hawkish stance.

US CPI Inflation 3.48% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • US CPI inflation in March 2024 rose to 3.48% year-on-year, surpassing consensus forecasts and indicating a more persistent inflation issue.
  • Core CPI inflation also unexpectedly remained at 3.8% year-on-year in March 2024.
  • This was due to a 0.4% month-on-month increase in March 2024.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.
  • This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.
  • The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Apr-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to maintain the OCR at 5.50% reflects a strategic intent to manage inflationary pressures influenced by domestic and global economic conditions.
  • Persistent inflationary pressures, amid weak economic growth and the nuanced impact of net migration on the labour market and consumer spending, underscore the complexities of returning consumer price inflation to the target range.
  • Future policy decisions will hinge on the balance between restrictive monetary policy measures and their impact on economic stability, with a keen eye on global economic trends, labour market dynamics, and inflationary trends.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Apr-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Bank of Thailand’s decision to keep the Policy Rate unchanged at 2.5%, despite some members advocating for a reduction, demonstrates a cautious optimism about economic growth and structural impediments, alongside a commitment to macro-financial stability.
  • Growth projections for 2024 and 2025 are supported by private consumption, tourism, and public expenditure, albeit tempered by structural challenges in exports and manufacturing, underscoring the need for comprehensive structural reforms.
  • The inflation outlook remains subdued, with expectations of a gradual increase towards the target range, necessitating vigilant monitoring of external shocks and the efficacy of monetary policy in fostering an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth amid financial stability concerns.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Norway CPI Inflation 3.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.2%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Norway’s CPI inflation rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year in March 2024, which is lower than the predicted 4.2%.
  • This is the lowest growth rate since September 2023.
  • The CPI-ATE inflation rate, which excludes volatile components, was a contributing factor to this decrease but still remained at a higher 4.5% year-on-year.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Deep Yellow Ltd, Iron Ore, OceanaGold Philippines, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, West Fraser Timber , ICL Group , Eagle Materials, Kinross Gold Corp, Newmarket Corp, Axalta Coating Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June
  • Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector
  • OceanaGold Philippines IPO – Small yet Asking for a Lot
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers
  • West Fraser Timber: Initiation Of Coverage – Stability in Remodel and Repair Activity!
  • ICL Group Ltd: Continuing Operational Challenges Due to Geopolitical War! – Major Drivers
  • Eagle Materials: Initiation Of Coverage – A Robust Wallboard Volume Performance and Future Prospects! – Major Drivers
  • Kinross Gold Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • NewMarket Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – The Impact Of The Acquisition of AMPAC and Its Integration! – Major Drivers
  • Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased focus on efficiency and productivity paying off? – Major Drivers


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in June.
  • The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
  • There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

By Sameer Taneja

  • Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
  • The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
  • Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.

OceanaGold Philippines IPO – Small yet Asking for a Lot

By Ethan Aw

  • OceanaGold Philippines (OGCP000D PM) is looking to raise up to US$140m in its Philippines IPO.
  • OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance and share our quick thoughts on valuation.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources, a supplier of metallurgical products for the steel industry, closed its fourth quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $266 million and achieved over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
  • This is the second consecutive year in which the company attained such a milestone despite facing considerable challenges during the year.
  • Alpha highlighted the robustness of its management approach which included proactive identification of issues and proactive response plans that ensured minimal impact on performance.

West Fraser Timber: Initiation Of Coverage – Stability in Remodel and Repair Activity!

By Baptista Research

  • West Fraser produces lumber for the construction industry and also manufactures wood-based products such as engineered wood, panel products, and pulp and paper products.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, the company posted mixed results across its business segments.
  • Its North American engineered wood business segment displayed strength while soft demand affected its North American lumber products.

ICL Group Ltd: Continuing Operational Challenges Due to Geopolitical War! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Israel Chemicals Ltd.
  • (ICL) had faced various operational challenges during the fourth quarter mostly due to the war in Israel.
  • Despite these obstacles, they successfully maintained good production levels.

Eagle Materials: Initiation Of Coverage – A Robust Wallboard Volume Performance and Future Prospects! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Eagle Materials, a U.S.-based producer and distributor of building materials.
  • The company reported record revenues in its third quarter for the fiscal year 2024, marking its robust financial performance and continuing to maintain and widen its low-cost producer strategy.
  • With revenues reaching $559 million, up 9%, and adjustable earnings per share (EPS) rising 16% to $3.72, Eagle Materials marked another successful quarter.

Kinross Gold Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kinross Gold reported a robust fiscal year 2023, where the company met its targets and is well-positioned for the year ahead.
  • Kinross Gold’s operations are performing well, as are its projects, which are aligning with budget and timing.
  • The company is generating substantial free cash flow and is successfully de-levering its balance sheet.

NewMarket Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – The Impact Of The Acquisition of AMPAC and Its Integration! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • NewMarket Corporation, a petroleum additives company, recently reported their full-year and fourth-quarter results for 2023.
  • The company’s net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $80 million, a decrease from the previous year’s fourth quarter net income of $91 million.
  • This decrease in operating profit was primarily due to higher operating costs and lower shipments partially offset by lower raw material costs.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased focus on efficiency and productivity paying off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
  • reported Q4 net sales increasing by 5% year-over-year, amounting to $1.3 billion with contributions from both of its key business segments – Mobility Coatings and Performance Coatings.
  • This increase is further evidence of the impressive quarterly performance that Axalta has had, which includes a seventh consecutive quarter of mobility volumes growth, indicating the recovery of the automotive industry and successful reshaping of the company’s portfolio.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Shanghai Electric Group Company, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , ZEEKR, Air China Ltd (H), TAL Education, Base Carbon , Afcons Infrastructure Limited, UFP Industries , Ads-Tec Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts
  • China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)
  • TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers
  • Base Carbon, Inc. – 2023 Results Show Leverage of Business Model
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023
  • ADS-TEC Energy – Serving the energy transition


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
  • Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
  • Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
  • The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
  • Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case
  • The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
  • Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
  • There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
  • Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Base Carbon, Inc. – 2023 Results Show Leverage of Business Model

By Water Tower Research

  • Base Carbon reported 2023 results that highlight the milestone year for the company, which saw the first issuance of carbon credits from one of its projects, cash received from the sale of its credits to a third party, and the diversification into carbon removal projects.
  • Net profit was $98.3 million, driven by $6.4 million realized and $104.7 million in unrealized gains in its carbon credit projects portfolio.
  • Vietnam project expected to deliver ~$29.1 million in cash flow in 2024.

Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Jefferies, Nomura, ICICI Securities, SBI Capital, DAM Capital, and Nuvama Wealth.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • As per the Fitch report, the firm was one of India’s largest international infrastructure companies as per the 2023 ENR top international contractors ranking, based on FY23 international revenue.

UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023, despite falling slightly short of its annual target.
  • The company’s sales and profit ranked as the third best in its nearly seven decades of operation.
  • CEO Matt Missad and CFO Mike Cole laid out UFP’s achievements, plans for 2024, and long-term objectives in their earnings call.

ADS-TEC Energy – Serving the energy transition

By Edison Investment Research

ADS-TEC Energy operates in an emerging market serving the changing grid and power management requirements of an electrifying world. Its key market at present is for battery-buffered ultra-fast charging systems for electric vehicles (EVs). This is starting to produce tangible positive results, with the business EBITDA positive in Q423. Hence, ADS-TEC offers a de-risking investment into the electrification of the energy system, including the growth of EVs through the associated charging infrastructure.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: WT Microelectronics, KT Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Microstrategy Inc Cl A and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • WT Micro Placement – Another Well-Flagged Taiwan GDR Offering, This One Is Easier to Digest
  • KT’s Foreign Room Below 7.5%, Weight Down-Adjustment Expected in May, Resulting in 3x ADTV Outflow
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders
  • Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024


WT Micro Placement – Another Well-Flagged Taiwan GDR Offering, This One Is Easier to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise US$341m in its GDR offering. The proceeds will be used to purchase raw materials overseas.
  • The deal is a very well flagged one, and will be a relatively small one to digest at just 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on the deal dynamics.

KT’s Foreign Room Below 7.5%, Weight Down-Adjustment Expected in May, Resulting in 3x ADTV Outflow

By Sanghyun Park

  • KT’s foreign ownership declined since January, below 7.5% by last month. If it remains, the adjustment factor halves to 0.25, impacting KT’s Global Index weight.
  • With the May review screening date estimated for April 17th, swift reversal of foreign inflows seems improbable. Thus, KT’s adjustment factor dropping to 0.25 is likely.
  • This could lead to an outflow of 1.6M shares, approximately 3x ADTV. Given the prolonged price impact on telcos, exploring a long-short setup with SKT might be prudent.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Wins Major U.S. Support; Nanya Results; UMC Rush Orders

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab. 
  • Memory Monitor: Nanya’s Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising 
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ. 

Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC causing volatility in MSTR shares and bitcoin prices
  • Opportunity for a trade pairing short sale of MSTR shares with purchase of bitcoin ETF
  • Fluctuating premium of MSTR’s enterprise value over SOTP value, expected to dissipate with approval of bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Shanghai Electric Group Company, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , ZEEKR, Air China Ltd (H), TAL Education, Base Carbon , Afcons Infrastructure Limited, UFP Industries , Ads-Tec Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts
  • China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)
  • TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers
  • Base Carbon, Inc. – 2023 Results Show Leverage of Business Model
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023
  • ADS-TEC Energy – Serving the energy transition


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
  • Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
  • Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
  • The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
  • Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case
  • The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
  • Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
  • There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
  • Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Base Carbon, Inc. – 2023 Results Show Leverage of Business Model

By Water Tower Research

  • Base Carbon reported 2023 results that highlight the milestone year for the company, which saw the first issuance of carbon credits from one of its projects, cash received from the sale of its credits to a third party, and the diversification into carbon removal projects.
  • Net profit was $98.3 million, driven by $6.4 million realized and $104.7 million in unrealized gains in its carbon credit projects portfolio.
  • Vietnam project expected to deliver ~$29.1 million in cash flow in 2024.

Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Jefferies, Nomura, ICICI Securities, SBI Capital, DAM Capital, and Nuvama Wealth.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • As per the Fitch report, the firm was one of India’s largest international infrastructure companies as per the 2023 ENR top international contractors ranking, based on FY23 international revenue.

UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries Inc. posted robust financial results for its Q4 2023, despite falling slightly short of its annual target.
  • The company’s sales and profit ranked as the third best in its nearly seven decades of operation.
  • CEO Matt Missad and CFO Mike Cole laid out UFP’s achievements, plans for 2024, and long-term objectives in their earnings call.

ADS-TEC Energy – Serving the energy transition

By Edison Investment Research

ADS-TEC Energy operates in an emerging market serving the changing grid and power management requirements of an electrifying world. Its key market at present is for battery-buffered ultra-fast charging systems for electric vehicles (EVs). This is starting to produce tangible positive results, with the business EBITDA positive in Q423. Hence, ADS-TEC offers a de-risking investment into the electrification of the energy system, including the growth of EVs through the associated charging infrastructure.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: Aichi Financial Group , Huatai Securities Co Ltd (A), Aavas Financiers Ltd, Industrivarden AB, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Picton Property Income, Regional REIT Ltd, Extra Space Storage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some
  • [#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook
  • Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
  • Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group
  • Picton Property Income – Accretive portfolio repositioning
  • Regional REIT – Performing as expected ahead of refinancing
  • Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls “The Big April Basket.” The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
  • It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
  • Janaghan had 18 “High Conviction” LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • According to my estimates, the SSE 50 expected ADDs and DELs could see US$1.7bn index buying and US$828mn index selling respectively (leaving nearly $900mm of funding sales to do).

[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.
  • Strong operational updates Info Edge India (INFOE IN); Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) & Sula Vineyards (SULA IN).  
  • The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.

Industrivärden Q1 2024, NAV Evolution and Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • As of end of Q1, NAV was SEK 166.8 billion (SEK 386/share). NAV increased by 11% due to a sharp decrease in leverage, while the portfolio value rose by 6%.
  • Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV (vs. 8.8% average for the last 5 years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction.
  • My target NAV is SEK 173,116 million (SEK 400.8/share). My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 361.7.

EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX is currently pulling back for a 2nd week in a row.
  • This could be an opportunity to go LONG,  if the pullback is limited to this (or at most the next) week closing down and reaching targets between 365 and 338.
  • If the index goes down for 3 weeks and reached below 343 caution is advised: the pullback may be larger than expected in that case.

Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Picton Property Income – Accretive portfolio repositioning

By Edison Investment Research

Picton Property Income has agreed the sale of Angel Gate, its second largest office asset, and largest portfolio void, with an agreed consideration above the Q323 valuation. The sale is part of its strategy to repurpose selective office assets and accretively recycle the capital. This sale supports NAV, and we expect a positive impact on earnings. Further repurposing asset management initiatives are being progressed.


Regional REIT – Performing as expected ahead of refinancing

By Edison Investment Research

In a challenging market, Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) FY23 operational and financial performance was robust, in line with expectations and previous guidance. Investor focus remains on the company’s loan to value (LTV) reduction and bond refinancing plans, explored in detail in our previous note and RGL will provide an update on this in due course.


Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author has a negative outlook on self-storage REITs, particularly EXR
  • Valuations are high despite challenging outlook and higher interest rates
  • Predicts industry’s long-term prospects are unfavorable due to institutionalization and increased competition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Masimo Corp, Ensign Group, Exelixis Inc, Inspire Medical Systems Inc, Iti Inc, Option Care Health, Oryzon Genomics, Encompass Health and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) – Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group
  • Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers
  • The Ensign Group: Strengthening Relationships with Managed Care Partners & Quality Outcomes!
  • Exelixis Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Inspire Medical Systems Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Surge in Sleep Center Investments Can Catalyze The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc.: Lumateperone’s market growth in the significant bipolar depression segment & other major drivers
  • Option Care Health Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Efficient Spending Through Technology and Automation Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Oryzon Genomics – FDA green light for SCLC combination trial
  • Encompass Health Corporation: 4 Pivotal Factors That Are Shaping Its Growth Journey!


China TCM (570.HK) – Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since “no dividend was proposed for the year ended 31 December 2023”, the privatization is highly likely to succeed. It may not be wise for investors to bet against privatization.
  • The recent high-level personnel changes in Taiji is “thought-provoking”, which seems to be preparing for the next step of integrating with China TCM. Spin-offs and integrations are expected within Taiji.
  • We analyzed possible playbook. In this way, CNPGC is able to solve the problem of horizontal competition. China TCM could also relist in A-share to gain higher valuations/better liquidity.

Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Masimo Corporation had a mixed Q4 and fiscal year 2023 earnings call, reporting both positive results and some challenges.
  • The company generated over $2 billion in consolidated revenues, with healthcare revenues reaching $1.28 billion.
  • In addition, Masimo saw strong growth in its hearables business and reported a record number of contract wins.

The Ensign Group: Strengthening Relationships with Managed Care Partners & Quality Outcomes!

By Baptista Research

  • The Ensign Group offers a variety of services, including skilled nursing, rehabilitative care services, home health care, hospice care, and physical, occupational and speech therapies, among others.
  • In their most recent earnings presentation, the company reported impressive clinical and financial results backed by the commitment and efforts of its employees.
  • Ensign reported a same-store occupancy of 79.9%, a 240 basis point increase over the last year, and also noticed improvements in their occupancy on a sequential basis of 40 basis points over the third quarter.

Exelixis Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Throughout 2023, Exelixis Inc, showed a strong overall performance with increased demand and revenue growth in its cabozantinib franchise, globally.
  • As per their recent conference call, they revealed that the franchise’s net product revenues rose by 14% YoY in Q4 2023.
  • The 2023 full-year revenue also grew by 16% YoY. Moreover, the global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues produced by Exelixis, and its partners reached approximately $2.3 billion in 2023.

Inspire Medical Systems Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Surge in Sleep Center Investments Can Catalyze The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Inspire Medical Systems, a manufacturer of devices for treating obstructive sleep apnea, recently reported their fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results.
  • The company delivered strong results, noting this was their first quarter with operating income and that they had completed the year on a high note.
  • The company reported revenue of $192.5 million for the fourth quarter, a 40% increase from Q4 2020, and net income of $14.8 million, compared to $3.2 million in the prior year.

Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc.: Lumateperone’s market growth in the significant bipolar depression segment & other major drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intra-Cellular Therapies, during their fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings, expressed a positive outlook based on strong and consistent growth throughout the past year.
  • Key achievements included establishing CAPLYTA as a significant treatment option for a broad patient population with bipolar depression and schizophrenia, and advancing several of their pipeline programs.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Option Care Health Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Efficient Spending Through Technology and Automation Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Option Care Health.
  • The company reported a decent set of Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings.
  • They attribute a significant part of their growth to their commitment to offering innovative services aiming to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs.

Oryzon Genomics – FDA green light for SCLC combination trial

By Edison Investment Research

With the FDA investigational new drug (IND) application clearance, Oryzon can commence its Phase I/II cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) trial sponsored by the National Cancer Institute (NCI; part of the National Institutes of Health) with Dr Noura Choudhury from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) as the principal investigator. This trial will evaluate iadademstat in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for the treatment of first-line extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). This is a key development for Oryzon as interim results from this study will influence the design of the company-sponsored Phase Ib/II STELLAR trial. The IND application for this is likely to be filed by end-2024 (trial commencing in 2025). ICIs atezolizumab and durvalumab are currently approved as first-line treatments in SCLC and Oryzon expects a combination with iadademstat to enhance immune activity in patients, increasing therapeutic efficacy. The CRADA-MSKCC trial will enrol 40–50 patients, with updates expected through 2024.


Encompass Health Corporation: 4 Pivotal Factors That Are Shaping Its Growth Journey!

By Baptista Research

  • Encompass Health’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 revealed yet another strong showing for the company, capping off a robust year of performance.
  • On the positive side, a significant growth in both volume and revenue was reported for the year.
  • The company recorded a 10.4% increase in revenue, driven by an 8.7% spike in total discharges, indicating its value proposition indeed resonates with referral sources, payers, and the patients it serves.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Consumer: Tata Motors Ltd, Unilever PLC, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Jade Group, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Golf Digest Online, Card Factory, Select Comfort, Kayou and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp
  • Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business
  • In Correlation with TOPIX, Nominal GDP Has Become Even Higher, While P/B Has Been Scarce Since 2020
  • Itochu Targets Fashion E-Commerce Via Jade Takeover of Magaseek
  • Melco Resorts – Event Flash – Proposing USD 500 Mn 8NC3 Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics
  • Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)
  • Cardonomics
  • Sleep Number Corp (SNBR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024
  • Kayou Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Unexplained 9M23 Slump


Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Unilever (ULVR) To Separate Its Ice Cream Business

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Unilever announced plans to separate its ice cream business into a separate publicly listed company (SpinCo), potentially via a spin-off transaction.
  • Post separation, Unilever will focus on four core businesses: beauty and wellbeing, personal care, home care, and nutrition. The separation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025.
  • The separation will allow Unilever to allocate capital and resources more efficiently towards higher growth categories with significant potential to scale.

In Correlation with TOPIX, Nominal GDP Has Become Even Higher, While P/B Has Been Scarce Since 2020

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Nominal GDP grew 1.8% from 2012 to 2017, higher than the annual average over the past 33 years, in anticipation of an escape from deflation, but TOPIX gains have stalled.
  • Nominal GDP from 2021 to 2023 will grow 3.8% per year, far above the average of the past 33 years, and the correlation with TOPIX is even higher.
  • With average P/B showing little correlation with TOPIX after 2020, expanding nominal earnings without losing out to rising prices seems to be a more important factor for stock price appreciation.

Itochu Targets Fashion E-Commerce Via Jade Takeover of Magaseek

By Michael Causton

  • Jade Group has acquired Magaseek and will merge the online mall with its own fashion e-commerce platform, Locondo and hopes to create a growing rival to Zozo.
  • Magaseek was founded by Itochu 20 years ago, and the deal underlines Itochu’s growing influence over Jade as a proxy for its ambitions in fashion e-commerce and distribution.
  • However, Jade Group has seen little organic growth for its Locondo platform in recent years, and while its acquisitions have added scale, integration has been haphazard.

Melco Resorts – Event Flash – Proposing USD 500 Mn 8NC3 Notes Issuance – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts and Entertainment (MLCO) announced yesterday that it is planning to issue USD 500 mn in 8NC3 notes. In addition, subsidiary Studio City has initiated a tender offer to repurchase up to USD 100 mn of the STCITY 6.0 ’25s. We view positively MLCO’s proposed bond issuance and the maturity extension of its credit facilities, as well as Studio City’s tender offer, as they demonstrate management’s proactive approach in managing the company’s debt maturities. The transactions will significantly reduce MLCO’s refinancing risk in FY 2025, as the company would have c. USD 1.5 bn of availability under its credit facilities that can be used to help repay the USD 1.0 bn MPEL 4.875 ’25s due in June 2025. Moreover, management has committed to prioritise debt reduction over dividend payments in FY 2024.

We view the price talk of 7.75-7.875% as fair.


Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On the surface, FY23/12 consolidated OP -68% YoY, profit ATOP -53%, and FY24/12 initial guidance for a profit ATOP net loss may appear to indicate a challenging earnings environment.
  • However, closer examination reveals steady earnings improvement, and the new MTP through FY26/12 targets recouping major overseas growth investments.
  • The table below shows sequential improvement in the amount change YoY for Group EBITDA, OP and profit ATOP every quarter, with profits at all 9 levels posting YoY gains in the 4Q.

Cardonomics

By The Mikro Kap

  • Given that it has already been 6 months since I first bought Card Factory and the stock is currently trading only slightly above my average purchase price, I decided to send you guys a short and sweet thesis on why I believe $CARD.L is an attractive opportunity.
  • Card Factory is a greeting card and other “celebration essentials” retailer operating primarily in the UK.
  • What is unique about the Northern Europeans, particularly the British, is their habit of buying greeting cards. It is ingrained in their culture

Sleep Number Corp (SNBR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Decision to invest in Sleep Number Corporation (SNBR) due to cyclical downturn in mattress sector
  • SNBR seen as potential opportunity for cyclical turnaround despite drop in stock value since COVID-19 peak
  • SNBR targets older, affluent customers with high-end mattresses sold through physical stores; has maintained constant market share for past decade

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Kayou Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Unexplained 9M23 Slump

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars