All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: L’Occitane, Ryohin Keikaku, Riso Kyoiku, Aichi Financial Group , Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, Bangchak Corporation, Shanghai Electric Group Company, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , WT Microelectronics, Deep Yellow Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is
  • Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%
  • The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • WT Micro Placement – Another Well-Flagged Taiwan GDR Offering, This One Is Easier to Digest
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June


L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that L’Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
  • Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
  • Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

By Travis Lundy


Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, cram school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) and 20% owner real estate developer Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) amended their Capital and Business Alliance agreement. 
  • Hulic will buy 25.5% of shares out in a Partial Offer at +43.5% vs last. Then post-tender, they will buy shares at last from the company to go to 51.%
  • The founder will sell his 10%. The rest is interesting. It’s a high ROE high div stock. Some own it from higher. Pro-ration is tough to estimate. But we try.

The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls “The Big April Basket.” The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
  • It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
  • Janaghan had 18 “High Conviction” LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
  • We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
  • Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
  • Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
  • The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
  • Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

WT Micro Placement – Another Well-Flagged Taiwan GDR Offering, This One Is Easier to Digest

By Clarence Chu

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise US$341m in its GDR offering. The proceeds will be used to purchase raw materials overseas.
  • The deal is a very well flagged one, and will be a relatively small one to digest at just 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on the deal dynamics.

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in June.
  • The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
  • There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Deep Yellow Ltd, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June
  • Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in June.
  • The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
  • There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

By Sameer Taneja

  • Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
  • The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
  • Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , KT Corp, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • KT’s Foreign Room Below 7.5%, Weight Down-Adjustment Expected in May, Resulting in 3x ADTV Outflow
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Buy-The-Dip Opportunity


HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, representing an 18% upside from the high end of the IPO price range.
  • The company’s ROE averaged 67% in 2022 and 2023. In comparison, the comps’ ROE averaged 10.6% in the same period. [HD Hyundai Marine Solution > Comps]
  • Our base case valuation is based on 24.7x P/E (comps’ average) using our estimated net profit of 178.7 billion won for the company in 2024. 

KT’s Foreign Room Below 7.5%, Weight Down-Adjustment Expected in May, Resulting in 3x ADTV Outflow

By Sanghyun Park

  • KT’s foreign ownership declined since January, below 7.5% by last month. If it remains, the adjustment factor halves to 0.25, impacting KT’s Global Index weight.
  • With the May review screening date estimated for April 17th, swift reversal of foreign inflows seems improbable. Thus, KT’s adjustment factor dropping to 0.25 is likely.
  • This could lead to an outflow of 1.6M shares, approximately 3x ADTV. Given the prolonged price impact on telcos, exploring a long-short setup with SKT might be prudent.

EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX is currently pulling back for a 2nd week in a row.
  • This could be an opportunity to go LONG,  if the pullback is limited to this (or at most the next) week closing down and reaching targets between 365 and 338.
  • If the index goes down for 3 weeks and reached below 343 caution is advised: the pullback may be larger than expected in that case.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: DR , City Developments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • 10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)
  • Singapore Primary-listed Companies Bought Back S$230M in Shares in 1Q24


10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 – All about Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs)

Singapore Primary-listed Companies Bought Back S$230M in Shares in 1Q24

By Geoff Howie

  • In 1Q24, 50 SGX primary-listed companies bought back shares by way of market acquisitions with a combined consideration of ~S$230 million.
  • CapitaLand Investment bought back 31.2 million shares at an average price of S$2.96 in 1Q24 and City Developments bought back 6.7 million shares at an average price of S$5.91 per share.
  • The 1Q24 buyback activity compared to 41 primary-listed companies conducting S$111 million in buyback consideration in 1Q23.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: ZEEKR, Masimo Corp, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Encompass Health , Ensign Group, Exelixis Inc, Extra Space Storage, Inspire Medical Systems Inc, Iti Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts
  • Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers
  • Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024
  • Encompass Health Corporation: 4 Pivotal Factors That Are Shaping Its Growth Journey!
  • The Ensign Group: Strengthening Relationships with Managed Care Partners & Quality Outcomes!
  • Exelixis Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024
  • Inspire Medical Systems Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Surge in Sleep Center Investments Can Catalyze The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc.: Lumateperone’s market growth in the significant bipolar depression segment & other major drivers


ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts

By Arun George

  • ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has restarted its IPO process to raise US$500 million by listing on the NYSE.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case and ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case
  • The latest SEC filings reinforce the bear case due to weak industry sentiment, rapidly slowing growth, ongoing operating losses and volatile FCF. 

Masimo Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion into Hearables and Wearables Market! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Masimo Corporation had a mixed Q4 and fiscal year 2023 earnings call, reporting both positive results and some challenges.
  • The company generated over $2 billion in consolidated revenues, with healthcare revenues reaching $1.28 billion.
  • In addition, Masimo saw strong growth in its hearables business and reported a record number of contract wins.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The Geopolitical Factors Influencing Coal Markets? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources, a supplier of metallurgical products for the steel industry, closed its fourth quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $266 million and achieved over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the year.
  • This is the second consecutive year in which the company attained such a milestone despite facing considerable challenges during the year.
  • Alpha highlighted the robustness of its management approach which included proactive identification of issues and proactive response plans that ensured minimal impact on performance.

Microstrategy Inc (MSTR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC causing volatility in MSTR shares and bitcoin prices
  • Opportunity for a trade pairing short sale of MSTR shares with purchase of bitcoin ETF
  • Fluctuating premium of MSTR’s enterprise value over SOTP value, expected to dissipate with approval of bitcoin ETFs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Encompass Health Corporation: 4 Pivotal Factors That Are Shaping Its Growth Journey!

By Baptista Research

  • Encompass Health’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 revealed yet another strong showing for the company, capping off a robust year of performance.
  • On the positive side, a significant growth in both volume and revenue was reported for the year.
  • The company recorded a 10.4% increase in revenue, driven by an 8.7% spike in total discharges, indicating its value proposition indeed resonates with referral sources, payers, and the patients it serves.

The Ensign Group: Strengthening Relationships with Managed Care Partners & Quality Outcomes!

By Baptista Research

  • The Ensign Group offers a variety of services, including skilled nursing, rehabilitative care services, home health care, hospice care, and physical, occupational and speech therapies, among others.
  • In their most recent earnings presentation, the company reported impressive clinical and financial results backed by the commitment and efforts of its employees.
  • Ensign reported a same-store occupancy of 79.9%, a 240 basis point increase over the last year, and also noticed improvements in their occupancy on a sequential basis of 40 basis points over the third quarter.

Exelixis Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Throughout 2023, Exelixis Inc, showed a strong overall performance with increased demand and revenue growth in its cabozantinib franchise, globally.
  • As per their recent conference call, they revealed that the franchise’s net product revenues rose by 14% YoY in Q4 2023.
  • The 2023 full-year revenue also grew by 16% YoY. Moreover, the global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues produced by Exelixis, and its partners reached approximately $2.3 billion in 2023.

Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) – Tuesday, Jan 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Author has a negative outlook on self-storage REITs, particularly EXR
  • Valuations are high despite challenging outlook and higher interest rates
  • Predicts industry’s long-term prospects are unfavorable due to institutionalization and increased competition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Inspire Medical Systems Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Surge in Sleep Center Investments Can Catalyze The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Inspire Medical Systems, a manufacturer of devices for treating obstructive sleep apnea, recently reported their fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results.
  • The company delivered strong results, noting this was their first quarter with operating income and that they had completed the year on a high note.
  • The company reported revenue of $192.5 million for the fourth quarter, a 40% increase from Q4 2020, and net income of $14.8 million, compared to $3.2 million in the prior year.

Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc.: Lumateperone’s market growth in the significant bipolar depression segment & other major drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intra-Cellular Therapies, during their fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings, expressed a positive outlook based on strong and consistent growth throughout the past year.
  • Key achievements included establishing CAPLYTA as a significant treatment option for a broad patient population with bipolar depression and schizophrenia, and advancing several of their pipeline programs.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group


Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Aavas Financiers Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, Afcons Infrastructure Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • [#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet


[#21] Namaste India 🙏 | Business Updates and Earnings Playbook

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Market momentum continues to be strong. As we head into earnings season, the momentum is likely to continue.
  • Strong operational updates Info Edge India (INFOE IN); Aavas Financiers Ltd (AAVAS IN) & Sula Vineyards (SULA IN).  
  • The overall market sentiment, represented by the average revisions across all sectors, is nearly flat, with a slight positive revision for FY1E at 0.02% and essentially stable for FY2E.

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners are Jefferies, Nomura, ICICI Securities, SBI Capital, DAM Capital, and Nuvama Wealth.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • As per the Fitch report, the firm was one of India’s largest international infrastructure companies as per the 2023 ENR top international contractors ranking, based on FY23 international revenue.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Aichi Financial Group , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Jade Group, Golf Digest Online and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows
  • In Correlation with TOPIX, Nominal GDP Has Become Even Higher, While P/B Has Been Scarce Since 2020
  • Itochu Targets Fashion E-Commerce Via Jade Takeover of Magaseek
  • Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls “The Big April Basket.” The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
  • It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
  • Janaghan had 18 “High Conviction” LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.

In Correlation with TOPIX, Nominal GDP Has Become Even Higher, While P/B Has Been Scarce Since 2020

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Nominal GDP grew 1.8% from 2012 to 2017, higher than the annual average over the past 33 years, in anticipation of an escape from deflation, but TOPIX gains have stalled.
  • Nominal GDP from 2021 to 2023 will grow 3.8% per year, far above the average of the past 33 years, and the correlation with TOPIX is even higher.
  • With average P/B showing little correlation with TOPIX after 2020, expanding nominal earnings without losing out to rising prices seems to be a more important factor for stock price appreciation.

Itochu Targets Fashion E-Commerce Via Jade Takeover of Magaseek

By Michael Causton

  • Jade Group has acquired Magaseek and will merge the online mall with its own fashion e-commerce platform, Locondo and hopes to create a growing rival to Zozo.
  • Magaseek was founded by Itochu 20 years ago, and the deal underlines Itochu’s growing influence over Jade as a proxy for its ambitions in fashion e-commerce and distribution.
  • However, Jade Group has seen little organic growth for its Locondo platform in recent years, and while its acquisitions have added scale, integration has been haphazard.

Full Report – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On the surface, FY23/12 consolidated OP -68% YoY, profit ATOP -53%, and FY24/12 initial guidance for a profit ATOP net loss may appear to indicate a challenging earnings environment.
  • However, closer examination reveals steady earnings improvement, and the new MTP through FY26/12 targets recouping major overseas growth investments.
  • The table below shows sequential improvement in the amount change YoY for Group EBITDA, OP and profit ATOP every quarter, with profits at all 9 levels posting YoY gains in the 4Q.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Shanghai Electric Group Company, Huatai Securities Co Ltd (A), China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Air China Ltd (H), Tata Motors Ltd, TAL Education, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Kayou and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some
  • China TCM (570.HK) – Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group
  • China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp
  • TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group
  • Kayou Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Unexplained 9M23 Slump


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 11% Vs Index Since Mid-Feb; Change the Hedge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by marketcap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500. There is subjectivity.
  • Here we look at potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300/500 rebalance in June 2024. With 93% of time passed, I expect 11 changes for CSI300, 50 for CSI 500. 
  • Some names have changed since my last insight, but the long/short trades recommended eight weeks ago gained 11.26% since. We make small changes this time.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • According to my estimates, the SSE 50 expected ADDs and DELs could see US$1.7bn index buying and US$828mn index selling respectively (leaving nearly $900mm of funding sales to do).

China TCM (570.HK) – Latest Updates on Privatization and the Potential Merger with Taiji Group

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since “no dividend was proposed for the year ended 31 December 2023”, the privatization is highly likely to succeed. It may not be wise for investors to bet against privatization.
  • The recent high-level personnel changes in Taiji is “thought-provoking”, which seems to be preparing for the next step of integrating with China TCM. Spin-offs and integrations are expected within Taiji.
  • We analyzed possible playbook. In this way, CNPGC is able to solve the problem of horizontal competition. China TCM could also relist in A-share to gain higher valuations/better liquidity.

China Pair Trade Idea: Long Air China (753 HK), Short CSA (1055 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) had 15.4% interest-bearing debt denominated in USD, vs. 21.3% for China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), making it less exposed to Rmb depreciation. 
  • Recovery of international traffic and routes will help to lower unit costs. Air China’s unit costs for FY23 were Rmb4.0445, whereas CSA’s were only Rmb3.2000.
  • There is more upside for Air China’s load factor which was down 7.8pp YoY in FY23, compared with -4.7pp for CSA. 

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


TAL Education Group: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Real Business Strategy And What Is The Impact Of AI On Its Business? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TAL Education Group (TAL) reported net revenues of USD 373.5 million for its third quarter fiscal year 2024, exhibiting an increase of 60.5% and 63.7% in U.S. dollar and RMB terms.
  • Despite the impressive revenue growth, profitability remained a concern with non-GAAP loss from operations and non-GAAP net loss attributable to TAL amounting to USD 10.2 million and USD 1.9 million, respectively.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Morning Views Asia: Pakuwon Jati, Sunny Optical Technology Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Kayou Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Unexplained 9M23 Slump

By Sumeet Singh

  • Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong: Q1 Short Interest Recap and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong: Q1 Short Interest Recap


Hong Kong: Q1 Short Interest Recap

By Brian Freitas


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars