Smartkarma Daily Briefs

There are 16 adds and 6 deletes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF has an AUM of US$12.4bn.
The ETF has started trading the stocks and are expected to continue trading for the next 7 trading days. In reality, the process could drag on for some stocks.
The index committee appears to have a little discretion in choosing the inclusions with one expected add not being added and one lower ranked stock being added to the index.

[Japan Activism] Murakami Owns ~42% and Company Announces 31.3% Buyback

By Travis Lundy

With earnings today (which beat guidance), Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced upbeat guidance for next year, a very large dividend hike from ¥130/share to ¥230/share, and a Very Large Buyback.
The buyback is ¥20bn (vs ¥47bn market cap) or 3.5mm shares (31.3%). It starts 2 June. Astute Murakami trackers may recognise the potential pattern here.
If the company buys back all 3.5mm shares at just below book, EPS of ¥756 = 12.9% ROE and PER of 7.8x. Even up 30% from here that isn’t super-rich.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

By Sumeet Singh

Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.

MBK Partners Plans to Launch a Tender Offer for Makino Milling Machine

By Douglas Kim

MBK Partners plans to launch a tender offer for Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) at 11,751 yen per share by early December to take over the controlling ownership.
The key long-term investment case for Makino is that it is one of the best companies in the world for making advanced machine tools that are increasingly becoming more sophisticated.
One could make the argument that this may not the final offer and some investors may require slightly higher prices in order to make the deal final.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

By Arun George

The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release.
Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.

Wistron GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$922m Offering, Discount Slightly Wider than Recent Deals

By Akshat Shah

Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$922m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 06

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.
Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced
US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse
Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost
AMD Just Made a Big Move in AI and Co-Packaged Optics: Here’s What Investors Need to Know!
Zscaler’s $675 Million Acquisition Of Red Canary—Here’s How It Could Reshape Cybersecurity & The $5 Billion SOC Race!
Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?
Check Point Makes A Bold Bet with Veriti: Can Preemptive Security Reinvent Cyber Risk Management?
HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Holds Shareholders’ Meeting on June 3rd.

By Patrick Liao

There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.

Keisei Electric (9009) | Neither Hidden nor Structurally Mispriced

By Mark Chadwick

Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

By Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo.
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.

Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four – Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.

AMD Just Made a Big Move in AI and Co-Packaged Optics: Here’s What Investors Need to Know!

In a strategic move underscoring its ambitions in AI infrastructure and next-gen interconnects, AMD recently acquired Silicon Valley-based Enosemi, a startup specializing in photonic integrated circuits.
The acquisition is part of AMD’s broader effort to catch up with competitors like Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom in the co-packaged optics (CPO) space, a technology increasingly viewed as essential for building high-bandwidth, energy-efficient AI systems.
Enosemi, founded in 2023 by semiconductor engineers Ari Novack and Matthew Streshinsky, had previously collaborated with AMD on photonics development and brings with it a small but elite team of PhD-level engineers.

Zscaler’s $675 Million Acquisition Of Red Canary—Here’s How It Could Reshape Cybersecurity & The $5 Billion SOC Race!

Zscaler, a major force in cloud-based cybersecurity, has officially signed a definitive agreement to acquire Red Canary, a recognized leader in Managed Detection and Response (MDR), in a strategic push to redefine security operations through AI and data integration.
The acquisition, expected to close in August 2025, marks Zscaler’s second major deal in the past 18 months after acquiring Avalor, a security data fabric provider.
Red Canary brings more than $140 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a seasoned MDR go-to-market team, and agentic AI workflows already deployed in production.

Eli Lilly’s Bold Move: Can the SiteOne Acquisition Knock Vertex Off Its Pain Drug Throne?

Eli Lilly and Company has made a decisive move to expand its footprint in neuroscience and pain management by announcing its acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing non-opioid pain treatments.
The deal, valued at up to $1 billion including milestones, centers around STC-004, a Phase 2-ready NaV1.8 inhibitor that could become a next generation oral pain medication.
The acquisition underscores Lilly’s broader ambition to lead in addiction-free, chronic pain solutions at a time when regulatory and societal pressures around opioid misuse continue to rise.

Check Point Makes A Bold Bet with Veriti: Can Preemptive Security Reinvent Cyber Risk Management?

In a strategic move that signals a shift toward automated, prevention-first cybersecurity, Check Point Software Technologies has announced its acquisition of Veriti Cybersecurity, a pioneering Israeli startup specializing in preemptive threat exposure management.
The transaction, valued at over $100 million, is expected to close by the end of Q2 2025 and marks the first major acquisition under new CEO Nadav Zafrir.
The deal comes at a time when Check Point is pushing hard on its hybrid mesh architecture vision and doubling down on its Infinity Platform to unify security across endpoints, cloud, and networks.

HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (3902 JP): Research Update

Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Spartan Resources, CMOC Group , Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Time Technoplast, Northern Dynasty Minerals, John Wood, Koninklijke Vopak Nv, Indo Tambangraya Megah, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July
CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius’ Offer
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up
Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance
Northern Dynasty Minerals: A Trump-Era on America’s Critical Mineral Independence
Sidara/Wood: Energy Engineering in Limbo, Value Beckons Amid Governance Fog
What’s News in Amsterdam – 2 June (Wolters Kluwer | Vopak | ESG)
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop
Sri Lanka Rubber Product Exports Skid Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

By Arun George

The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares).
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating

EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 17th March, Spartan (SPR AU) agreed to merge with Ramelius (RMS AU). The cash/scrip merger combined operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
The implied price of A$1.78/share was a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. The deal arrived after Spartan was outbid for Karora (KRR CN), and Spartan rebuffed Westgold (WGX AU)‘s approach.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected implementation on or before the 31st July. The IE (BDO) says “fair & reasonable“.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

Northern Dynasty Minerals: A Trump-Era on America’s Critical Mineral Independence

Sidara/Wood: Energy Engineering in Limbo, Value Beckons Amid Governance Fog

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Sidara’s persistence through multiple PUSU extensions and deep due diligence implies strong strategic interest despite Wood’s governance turbulence and suspended trading.
Wood’s record $2B+ contract wins in Asia Pacific show the business remains commercially viable and strategically relevant in the energy infrastructure value chain.
Free cash flow expected to turn meaningfully positive in 2026, supporting a standalone recovery case if no deal emerges—valuation suggests >2x upside potential.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 2 June (Wolters Kluwer | Vopak | ESG)

By The IDEA!

In today’s edition: • Wolters Kluwer | acquires Australian provider of online courseware solutions for nursing schools • Vopak | AVTL successfully completed IPO • ESG | Dutch corporations and central government scaling back on environmental targets

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) Q1 FY25: Solid Despite The Coal Price Drop

By Sameer Taneja

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported a solid Q1 FY25 despite the drop in coal prices. Revenues/profits were -1%/+8%YoY because of higher volumes and lower costs.
After accounting for the 150 million USD dividend liability (which was already paid out in May), net cash is>850 million USD (around 54% of market capitalization).
With earnings likely to be between 250-300 million USD in FY25, the stock trades at 5.3- 6.25x FY25 PE and 12.5% dividend yield.

Sri Lanka Rubber Product Exports Skid Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs

By Vinod Nedumudy

First quarter tire and tube exports fall by around 24% YoY
SLAMERP asks Govt to talk tariff disparity with US
CEAT’s share in OE tire market tops 90%

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Virgin Australia Holdings, Nava, Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd, Kilburn Engineering, Venus Pipes & Tubes, Arcadis NV, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment
NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion
Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose
Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering
What’s News in Amsterdam – 3 June (dsm-firmenich | Arcadis| Fugro | Dutch CPI | Dutch politics)
Braemar — Revised 2030 strategy for growth

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

By Sumeet Singh

Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion

NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
SPRL reported Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook

Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

By Nitin Mangal

Venus Pipes is a growing stainless-steel pipes and tubes manufacturer and exporter in India having over nine years of experience in manufacturing of stainless-steel tubular products.
With respect to forensics, we highlight several takeaways including steep increase in inventory days funded by creditors, expensive capex compared to peers, etc.
Weak governance practices are identified with respect to warrant issuance and non-disclosure of information on several fronts.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 3 June (dsm-firmenich | Arcadis| Fugro | Dutch CPI | Dutch politics)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • dsm-firmenich | completes sale of its stake in Feed Enzymes Alliance • Arcadis | awarded digital asset management contract with the City of Calgary • Fugro | awarded major order to perform a site characterisation programme for a deepwater gas field development in Southeast Asia • Dutch CPI | consumer prices increased by 3.3% YoY in May, down from 4.1% in April • Dutch politics | coalition government may fall later today

Braemar — Revised 2030 strategy for growth

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar has successfully grown underlying group revenue by c 10% per year since 2013 and the new growth strategy outlines initiatives and targets that are designed to continue top-line growth and improve the margin, such that operating profit is expected to almost double by 2030. This strategy is likely to see investment in new hires and/or M&A, which may be funded by short-term debt. Despite the growth targets, the company has guided to lower profits in FY26e due to external issues, but the fundamentals remain in place, and we expect a return to growth in FY27e. Accordingly, our short-term profit estimates are reduced, as is our valuation, from 535p to 462p, but this still offers c 100% upside.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, AViC , Xiaomi Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference
AVIC (9554 JP) – System in Place for Rapid In-House Launch of Live Commerce Business
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Intel @ BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference

By William Keating

Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger.

AVIC (9554 JP) – System in Place for Rapid In-House Launch of Live Commerce Business

By Sessa Investment Research

Over the past six months, AViC’s share price has undergone a major re-rate.
Its closing price on May 16, 2025, the day after Q2 FY2025/9 results announcement, stood at JPY 1,825, up 67.6% from the closing price of JPY 1,089 on November 14, 2024, when it announced FY2024/9 results.
Based on the projected EPS of JPY 73.59 for FY2025/9, the Company’s share looks to be trading at a premium with a forward P/E ratio of 24.8x.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

US treasury yields were up 1-2 bps across the curve, on the back of a stronger than expected JOLTS report.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.95%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.46%.
Equities advanced, supported by the strong jobs report despite continued uncertainty on trade.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief Health Care: Mayne Pharma, Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm, Caris Life Sciences, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Annoroad Gene Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
Kelun-Biotech Placement – Recent Run-Up Makes Its Tricky
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Peeking at the Prospectus of an AI TechBio IPO
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity
Pre-IPO Annoroad Gene Technology – The Outlook Is Not Optimistic

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card

By Arun George

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne.
While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.

Kelun-Biotech Placement – Recent Run-Up Makes Its Tricky

By Akshat Shah

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m from a primary placement. The offering is priced at HK$ 330.2-341, a 5-8% discount to last close.
The company plans to use the proceeds for research and development, clinical trials of its core products and as working capital.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI): Peeking at the Prospectus of an AI TechBio IPO

By IPO Boutique

Sixth Street Partners is a significant investor in Caris Life Sciences and has been involved in multiple funding rounds since 2018.
The company has more than 100 biopharma partners, such as Moderna, AbbVie, Xencor, and Merck KGaA.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, they generated total revenue of $120.9 million and $80.7 million, respectively. The company also has significant net losses.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) received conditional marketing approval for its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Trastuzumab Rezetecan for Injection (SHR-A1811).
In 1Q25, Jiangsu Hengrui reported revenue growth of 20% YoY to RMB 7.2B. Innovative drugs and Licensing should help keep this momentum in near future.
The near-term trigger for the stock would be a further marketing approval from the US FDA.

Pre-IPO Annoroad Gene Technology – The Outlook Is Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Annoroad has its competitiveness in the industry, but in a complex market environment, the comprehensive product lines may not necessarily bring high performance growth and large revenue scale.
The prenatal testing business is not easy. VBP is headwind.After Illumina was listed on “Unreliable Entity List”, it’s uncertain whether NextSeq 550AR sequencer can continue to be sold in China.
Taking into account the future growth uncertainty/centralized procurement/competitive pressure/lack of deep layout of the entire industry chain/policy risks, it’s already good to have a valuation of RMB2-3.5 billion after IPO

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief Financials: Henderson Land Development, Bank of Jiangsu , Japan Post Bank, Cantor Equity Partners I, Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa, Jefferson Capital, Martin Currie Portfolio Invest and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover
China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes
Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity
Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties
Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable
Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager
Franklin Global Trust — An exciting new chapter in the trust’s life

Henderson Land (12 HK): Large Passive Flow Coming Up as Shorts Cover

Henderson Land Development (12 HK) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated passive buying in Henderson Land Development (12 HK) is 42m shares (US$131.5m; 7.5x ADV).
The stock is up over the last 2 months as shorts have covered. Performance is in line with peers and positioning does not appear to be excessive.

China A50 ETF Rebalance: One Set of Changes

By Special Situation Investments

The iShares A50 China (2823 HK) and CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 June.
Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) will replace Great Wall Motor (601633 CH) in the ETFs and passives will need to trade between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the stocks.
This change is a surprise to us and there could be a short-term move in the stocks.

Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

By Rikki Malik

Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers stake below 50%

Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties

CEPO and CEPT SPACs, run by Howard Lutnick, trade above trust value with potential multibagger upside in crypto-related deals.
Cantor Fitzgerald, led by Lutnick’s son, has deepened its crypto involvement, including a 5% stake in Tether.
Cantor’s SPACs feature no warrants, a sponsor note boosting trust value, and no specified target sectors.

Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Inocsa seeks 75%+ control of GCO via a near-fair €49.45/share offer, aiming for strategic delisting. Minority holders risk illiquidity if they do not tender.
GCO’s fundamentals remain strong: 9.2x NTM P/E, 0.9x P/TBV, 242% solvency, and ample excess capital suggest fair value is higher than the offer.
While upside is capped, low risk and firm financing support offer risk-arb desks an annualized ~4% return before a likely late-August settlement.

Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Insolvency Account Manager

By IPO Boutique

They are a leading analytically driven purchaser and manager of charged-off and insolvency consumer accounts with four geographic regions with the majority of their operations landing in the USA.
The principal purposes of this offering are to increase their capitalization and flexibility, facilitate an orderly distribution for the selling stockholders, and create a public market for their common stock.
We anticipate this offering to likely find participation from sector dedicated investors and not draw the attention of “traditional” IPO players.

Franklin Global Trust — An exciting new chapter in the trust’s life

By Edison Investment Research

Franklin Global Trust (FRGT) was formerly the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust. Since October 2018 it has been managed by Zehrid Osmani, who is head of Franklin Templeton’s Edinburgh-based Global Long-Term Unconstrained (GLTU) team. As a result of the decision to retire the Martin Currie brand, on 12 July 2025, the GLTU team will join Franklin Equity Group’s (FEG’s) team of around 65 investment professionals, and Jonathan Curtis, FEG’s CIO, will become co-manager of the trust. FRGT’s investment strategy will remain unchanged, but being part of a wider investment operation should enhance the GLTU team’s research capability. FEG’s focus on high-growth sectors including technology and healthcare should be a good fit with FRGT’s approach of seeking innovative companies with long-term growth potential.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Virgin Australia Holdings, Nava, Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd, Kilburn Engineering, Venus Pipes & Tubes, Arcadis NV, Braemar Shipping Services PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment
NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion
Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose
Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering
What’s News in Amsterdam – 3 June (dsm-firmenich | Arcadis| Fugro | Dutch CPI | Dutch politics)
Braemar — Revised 2030 strategy for growth

Virgin Australia IPO – Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

By Sumeet Singh

Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion

NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
SPRL reported Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook