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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: IJTT Co., Ltd., Daiwa House Reit Investment, Gumi Inc, Seedheiwa, Lawson Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • IJTT (7315 JP) – Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively
  • Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks
  • SBI To Buy Gumi (3903) Shares To Up Stake to Near 30% (And Try To Avoid Impairment)
  • Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.
  • Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics
  • Demand for Disclosure to Answer the Goal of Promoting Sustainability to Increase Corporate Value


IJTT (7315 JP) – Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively

By Travis Lundy

  • IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) was perhaps one of the lower-priced parent takeovers (Isuzu remains central to the bidder post-buyout) at 0.46x book. Today, the last day, it got bumped.
  • The new price is ¥850/share vs ¥812/share. +4.7% and a whopping 0.48x book now. ¥850 is where the stock traded just before the announcement. It immediately jumped to ¥875/share.
  • It appears Isuzu is not getting any more money out of this, but they should be OK. They are buying back in at 0.48x book. With leverage. 

Japan – Increasing Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios early next year.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of February where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • Shorts have started to increase on some of the stocks and there will be further positioning as we near the liquidity event.

SBI To Buy Gumi (3903) Shares To Up Stake to Near 30% (And Try To Avoid Impairment)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, SBI Holdings (8473 JP) made an announcement it would buy (up to) 3.0mm shares of Gumi Inc (3903 JP) shares between tomorrow and end-March 2024.
  • SBI already owns 8.8mm shares, and this would bring them close to 30.0%. 
  • SBI did not specifically say they would buy on market, but the next 400,000 shares would require a large shareholder filing amendment. 

Meldia DC (1739 JP) – Open House Group Cleans Up Sanei Architecture Sub in TOB.

By Travis Lundy

  • Open House (3288 JP) took over Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) this past autumn when banks forced the issue over the former CEO/owner’s mafia ties discovered in an investigation.
  • Seedheiwa (1739 JP) now better known as Meldia DC, is ~60% held by Sanei Architecture Planning, and 3% by Mr Koike. It has debt. So it needs cleaning up too.
  • This is too light for minorities, and even lighter for whole co, but it’s a done deal. 

Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

By Michael Causton

  • The almost viral popularity of Familymart’s line of basic clothing items continues to grow and shows the real potential for convenience stores to diversify and adapt. 
  • Backed by Itochu, Familymart has expanded the product range and added new, limited edition items and brand collaborations, creating a success story that Seven Eleven may find hard to emulate.
  • Lawson, however, is controlled by Mitsubishi Corp which happens to have a clothing production arm that was behind the early success of Uniqlo and Adastria.

Demand for Disclosure to Answer the Goal of Promoting Sustainability to Increase Corporate Value

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 60% companies have established policies to promote human capital. Companies will be asked whether their goals are reasonable and whether their actual measures and progress toward those goals are sufficient.
  • Since many companies have set a target of 14-15% for % female managerial positions around 2025, it makes us worry whether they can really achieve 30% target in 2030.
  • Few companies have disclosed specific impact estimates under certain conditions. It’s expected that some proactive companies will push others to do the same regarding “Scope 3” in the future.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power


Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

By Arun George


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Daily Brief Financials: Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Year Ahead for Markets 2024


Year Ahead for Markets 2024

By Gerryl Pay

  • Surprising a pessimistic market, global liquidity rebounded, prompting expectations of increased buying pressure in the new year, as the Fed appears to remain on hold.
  • The crypto market is expected to benefit from a structural shift, with Bitcoin (BTC) emerging as a frontrunner after breaking out of a prolonged bear market consolidation.
  • Solana is anticipated to outperform in the coming year, driven by mean reversion, market share normalization, and narrative developments.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Posco DX, Apple , Quantum Solutions Co Ltd, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
  • 2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation
  • Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming
  • China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

By Brian Freitas


2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up >51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.
  • Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.
  • Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.

Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming

By Scott Foster

  • Quantum Solutions has given up 63% of its recent gain but has more NVIDIA GPU related orders in the pipeline. Keep an eye on the stock and the news flow.
  • The recent upward revision to sales and profit guidance has been followed by the announcement of a capital and business tie-up with Hajime Tabata’s JP Games.
  • The addition of Web-3.0 gaming to distribution of AI servers and Arm-based edge computing hardware could change the nature of the investment.

China Consumption Weekly (25 Dec 2023): Tencent, NetEase, NIO, Xpeng, Alibaba, Meituan, Douyin

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase’s stock prices plunged after the release of the new law about online game.
  • China Passenger Car Association expects NEV will grow by 37% for 2023.
  • NIO got US2.2 billion investment from CYVN Holdings based in Abu Dahbi.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Guangzhou Automobile Group, ASICS Corp, KOSDAQ 150 Index, International Housewares Retail and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As
  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing
  • International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
  • STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.

Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Fast entry is now permissible for KOSDAQ 150. Within 15 trading days post-listing, the average daily total market cap must rank among the top 30 ordinary stocks on KOSDAQ.
  • KOSDAQ 150 will also allow newly established entities in corporate spin-offs, following KOSPI 200’s model. Inclusion is granted if the subsidiary ranks within KOSDAQ 150’s top 160 (80%).
  • The ₩1.5T cutoff for KOSDAQ 150 fast entry suggests potential candidates nearing this threshold, like Oasis, Kurly (and maybe Kakao Entertainment).

International Housewares Retail Company Limited (1373 HK): H1 FY24 Off To a Bad Start

By Sameer Taneja

  • H1 FY24 (May-Oct 2023) was off to a sluggish start for the company, with a 4.7%/35% decline in revenue/adjusted NPAT. 
  • The company cited soft demand, loss of business days due to inclement weather, one-offs in relocation or warehouses to efficient locations, and increased staff costs for poor profits.
  • Post the correction, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 11x and dividend yield of 8%, but we will have to wait further out as business conditions are worse. 

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Most Read: JD.com Inc (ADR), Newmont , Guangzhou Automobile Group, ASICS Corp, Posco DX, JSR Corp, Benefit One Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, KOSDAQ 150 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade
  • Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As
  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power
  • Ohayo Japan | 8 Weeks of Wins; Dear Santa
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec
  • Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing
  • KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
  • Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
  • Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.

Newmont’s Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
  • We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won’t be obvious to everyone. 
  • There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
  • STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.

Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

By Brian Freitas


Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

By Arun George


Ohayo Japan | 8 Weeks of Wins; Dear Santa

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.2%; PCE 3.2% v 3.3% exp; Nike -12% on job cuts, tough macro
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY142; Japan approves fiscal budget; Nexon ADR steadies after China game rout
  • Japan: Dalton’s Xmas greetings to management & three shareholder proposals: effective capital allocation, strong alignment of interest, and a board with high independence and diversity

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) – Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

By Arun George


Maybe Management Is Finally Becoming Aware of the Cost of Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Many companies had the goal of IPOs as a means to save taxes rather than growth, but it’s good to seriously consider go private for the sake of their shareholders.
  • This is due to companies’ awareness of listing costs, such as demands from overseas investors for improved governance and requests from TSE for “management with awareness of the stock price.”
  • Another issue that needs to be examined is the loss of growth and profitability for companies that are delisted and then relisted.

KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Fast entry is now permissible for KOSDAQ 150. Within 15 trading days post-listing, the average daily total market cap must rank among the top 30 ordinary stocks on KOSDAQ.
  • KOSDAQ 150 will also allow newly established entities in corporate spin-offs, following KOSPI 200’s model. Inclusion is granted if the subsidiary ranks within KOSDAQ 150’s top 160 (80%).
  • The ₩1.5T cutoff for KOSDAQ 150 fast entry suggests potential candidates nearing this threshold, like Oasis, Kurly (and maybe Kakao Entertainment).

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Daily Brief South Korea: Posco DX, KOSDAQ 150 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150
  • KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, SET50, AMFI, KOSDAQ150

By Brian Freitas


KOSDAQ 150’s New Fast Entry Rule: Top 30 by Market Cap in 15 Trading Days Post-Listing

By Sanghyun Park

  • Fast entry is now permissible for KOSDAQ 150. Within 15 trading days post-listing, the average daily total market cap must rank among the top 30 ordinary stocks on KOSDAQ.
  • KOSDAQ 150 will also allow newly established entities in corporate spin-offs, following KOSPI 200’s model. Inclusion is granted if the subsidiary ranks within KOSDAQ 150’s top 160 (80%).
  • The ₩1.5T cutoff for KOSDAQ 150 fast entry suggests potential candidates nearing this threshold, like Oasis, Kurly (and maybe Kakao Entertainment).

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Daily Brief United States: Apple , Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • 2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation
  • Year Ahead for Markets 2024


2024 High Conviction: Apple’s AI Foray & Services to Power Its Journey to USD 4 Trillion Valuation

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Despite being a hated stock among the Super Sevens, Apple shares are up >51% YTD this year. Apple has had little to claim for within captivating AI hype.
  • Apple is not a first mover. Its reputation is of a late comer. But its superior products with mind bending experiences blows competition out of the water.
  • Outperformance of iPhone 15, deepening services penetration, and roll out of AI-features will propel Apple to a USD 4 trillion market cap in 2024.

Year Ahead for Markets 2024

By Gerryl Pay

  • Surprising a pessimistic market, global liquidity rebounded, prompting expectations of increased buying pressure in the new year, as the Fed appears to remain on hold.
  • The crypto market is expected to benefit from a structural shift, with Bitcoin (BTC) emerging as a frontrunner after breaking out of a prolonged bear market consolidation.
  • Solana is anticipated to outperform in the coming year, driven by mean reversion, market share normalization, and narrative developments.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Techtronic Ind and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Techtronic Ind, Link Reit, Jd, HSBC, Wuxi Bio, East Buy
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 22nd): China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD
  • Northbound Flows (Dec 22nd): CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 22nd): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Bora Pharma, Wiwynn


HK Short Interest Weekly: Techtronic Ind, Link Reit, Jd, HSBC, Wuxi Bio, East Buy

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 15th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Techtronic Ind, Link Reit, Jd, HSBC, Wuxi Bio, East Buy.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 22nd): CNOOC, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We have highlighted Hong Kong Conncect flows for CNOOC and Tencent.

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 22nd): China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Dec 22nd.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, utilities and offset by health care, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD, Fuyao Glass Industry.

Northbound Flows (Dec 22nd): CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 22nd.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$281.8 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by industrials, materials, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight flows for CATL, Chongqing Changan Automobile, CMB, Zhongji Innolight.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 22nd): TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Bora Pharma, Wiwynn

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 22nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD701.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD679mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Bora Pharma, Wiwynn, Cheng Shin, Novatek, Walsin Lihwa, Umc.

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Daily Brief Japan: ASICS Corp, JSR Corp, Quantum Solutions Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power
  • Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming


Asics (7936) | Footwear Fallout as Nike’s Q2 Sends Sector Shockwaves

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nike’s Q2 results lead to a 12% drop in its shares, affecting sector peers Onon, Skechers, and Asics with significant declines.
  • Challenging trading conditions in China and Europe, coupled with a subdued digital traffic outlook from Nike, raise broader concerns for the sector.
  • Asics stock declines 20% post-Nike’s fall, presenting an attractive buying opportunity with an estimated 20% upside, positioning Asics as a cost-effective play in the global performance running market.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) – JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

By Arun George


Quantum Solutions (2338 JP): Look Again at Small Cap Play on AI Servers and Web-3.0 Gaming

By Scott Foster

  • Quantum Solutions has given up 63% of its recent gain but has more NVIDIA GPU related orders in the pipeline. Keep an eye on the stock and the news flow.
  • The recent upward revision to sales and profit guidance has been followed by the announcement of a capital and business tie-up with Hajime Tabata’s JP Games.
  • The addition of Web-3.0 gaming to distribution of AI servers and Arm-based edge computing hardware could change the nature of the investment.

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