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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy
  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Paying the Price for Market Leadership
  • Nippon Paint (4612 JP):  Results Beat On Resilient China 2C Business
  • SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track
  • Geniee (6562 JP) – Resilient Ad Growth and Marketing SaaS Driving Momentum
  • Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward
  • InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue
  • Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered
  • IPower, Inc. – Solid Start to FY24; Demonstrates Several Avenues for Further Growth


Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q24, Higher Margin Means Smooth Reorganization, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s operating margin rose to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
  • Every expense as percentage of total revenue decreased and EBITDA of every business line increased.
  • We believe the reorganization is going smoothly and the stock has an upside of 82%. Buy.

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Paying the Price for Market Leadership

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) saw its 3Q2023 result swing back to a loss after turning on investment at Shopee during 3Q2023 in the face of competition.
  • The company was open about its renewed investment in growth during the previous quarter in the face of threats from TikTok Shop, which may have lessened post its Indonesia expulsion. 
  • Sea Ltd may not have engendered itself with investors impressed with its ability to pivot like no other to actual profitability, now introducing an element of uncertainty. Valuations reflect this.

Nippon Paint (4612 JP):  Results Beat On Resilient China 2C Business

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) announced a better-than-expected 3Q23 results this week, mainly driven by a resilient China decorative paint business. 
  • The company also raised 2023 operating profit guidance, expecting around 6% higher operating profit (Y168bn from Y158bn previously).
  • At 21x forward PE, the company is attractively valued given the growth profile and strong market share position in most end-markets. 

SPARX – Sharply Expanding ROE, 1H24 Profit Annualized Surges YoY, FUM Strongly Up, Costs Contained

By Daniel Tabbush

  • ROE is now 24.4% in 1H24 compared with 18.0% last year. ROE consistently rising well, from 15.9% in FY21.
  • Quarterly net profit up 47% YoY in 2Q24. On an annualized basis, net profit in FY24 can show considerable delta from FY23, a year when returns and profit were good.
  • Costs are well-contained. SG&A to assets was 23.7% at its recent peak and now it’s 20.8%. SG&A to revenue is now 55.5% compared with 65.3% at its recent peak.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Robust Financial Performance in Q2; Expansion Projects Are On Track

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY24, Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) reported revenue growth of 17% YoY and 6% QoQ to INR18.3B, driven by higher ARPOB and occupied bed days.
  • EBITDA grew 21% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR4.5B, leading to a 100 basis point YoY and 190 basis point QoQ margin expansion to 28.7%.
  • MHIL expect greenfield 300 bed hospital in Dwarka, South-west Delhi will be commissioned in later half of Q4FY24. It was originally expected to be commissioned in Q2FY24.

Geniee (6562 JP) – Resilient Ad Growth and Marketing SaaS Driving Momentum

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-2 FY3/2024 results demonstrated robust growth by Geniee with sales growth of 23.7% YoY and operating profit growth of 99.9% YoY.
  • The Marketing SaaS segment has seen robust sales growth and margin improvement YoY, paving the way for a resilient earnings stream going forward.
  • However, given a weaker-than-expected outlook for the advertising market both domestically and overseas, the company has lowered FY3/2024 guidance whilst maintaining its medium-term guidance range for FY3/2026.

Takara Bio (4974 JP): Smaller-Than-Expected Decline in H1FY24 Profit; FY24 Guidance Revised Downward

By Tina Banerjee

  • In H1FY24, Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) reported 41% YoY decline in revenue to ¥19.1B, dragged by 46% YoY decrease in revenue from reagents, which contributed 78% of total revenue.
  • Operating profit plunged 87% YoY to ¥1.4B, 28% ahead of guidance, due to lower-than-expected R&D expenses. Net profit decreased 87% YoY to ¥1.1B, 67% higher than the guidance.
  • Takara Bio has cut FY24 sales, operating profit, and net profit guidance by 15%, 63%, and 64%, respectively, as the company is anticipating a sluggish life science R&D market globally.

InMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – 1QFY24 Review: Pharmaceutical Advances Continue

By Water Tower Research

  • BayMedica registers strong Y/Y growth. Although BayMedica reported a 61% decline in sequential revenue in the opening quarter of its new fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the $902K in sales reported for 1QFY24 was nevertheless almost triple the $321K generated in the year-ago quarter.
  • The immaturity of rare cannabinoids ingredients market for health & wellness products makes it difficult to determine definitively any seasonality in the business.
  • However, it should not go unnoticed that the sequential sales drop in the latest summer quarter does repeat the pattern reported in 1QFY23 when sequential sales at BayMedica declined by almost 40%. 

Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Q323 DPS was fully covered

By Edison Investment Research

With indexed rental growth continuing and rent collection recovering, Triple Point Social Housing REIT’s (SOHO’s) Q323 dividend was fully covered, and we expect this to continue. Meanwhile, while the board continues its focus on closing the share price discount to NAV, it has concluded that any further capital return is dependent on significant additional liquidity being generated through property sales.


IPower, Inc. – Solid Start to FY24; Demonstrates Several Avenues for Further Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • iPower reported $26.5 million in revenue in 1QFY24, its highest quarterly revenue ever, compared with $26.0 million in 1QFY23.
  • The company’s performance was helped by business generated by its SuperSuite supply chain partnerships, currently on a $7 million annual run rate.
  • The company’s TikTok Shop sales also contributed to the solid sales results.

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Daily Brief Macro: Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling
  • EIA Watch: September Weakness Was Fake News. Time to Buy Oil?
  • CX Daily: Big Tech Is Changing in China, and So Are Its Hiring Plans
  • US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?


Increase in Trading of Inverse ETFs in Korea Post Temporary Ban on Stocks Short Selling

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the increase in trading of inverse ETFs in Korea post the temporary ban on stock short selling.
  • From 6th to 14th November, individual investors made net purchases of 46 inverse ETFs worth 3.7 trillion won. Local institutions also made net purchases of 1.6 trillion won. 
  • On the other hand, foreigners net sold 5.8 trillion won worth of inverse ETFs. 

EIA Watch: September Weakness Was Fake News. Time to Buy Oil?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to our weekly EIA report, where we run through demand and supply data and give our cents on where we are heading next – and what the implications are for energy markets.
  • As always we present the main conclusions up-front: 1) Oil demand will likely come in hot in November on the back of strong gasoline demand in October due to the lags in energy markets (Gasoline leads oil – not the other way around).
  • 2) Gasoline numbers in September were likely just a data-glimpse, as no high-frequent data series seem to agree with the narrative that demand for fuel is dropping.

CX Daily: Big Tech Is Changing in China, and So Are Its Hiring Plans

By Caixin Global

  • Jobs / In Depth: Big tech is changing in China, and so are its hiring plans\
  • China-U.S. /: China, U.S. agree to boost climate cooperation ahead of leaders’ meeting
  • Credit rating /: Central bank pushes fintech companies to jump into credit rating


US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

By Anne Sandager

  • The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a short-term extension of the FY-2023 budget 3 days before the government was scheduled to shut down.
  • The so-called Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed in a 336-95 vote.
  • Two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — and 93 Republicans opposed the bill. 

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Daily Brief Australia: Atlantic Lithium , SSH Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again
  • SSH Group Ltd – Restructured and Poised to Deliver


Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • Livent (LTHM US)‘s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector’s fundamental outlook remains strong. 
  • And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
  • African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.

SSH Group Ltd – Restructured and Poised to Deliver

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • SSH Group (ASX:SSH) is a labour and equipment hire business operating predominantly in Western Australia with a focus on the key growth sectors of construction, resources, and energy.
  • SSH listed in September 2021, issuing 31.25m shares at $0.20/share to raise $6.25m, along with the issue of 20.5m shares to the vendors of a labour-hire group of companies, Site Services.
  • In May 2022, SSH acquired equipment hire group KMH for $15m or 3.9x FY21 EBITDA. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Eoflow , SK Telecom, EcoPro Materials, KB Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part
  • Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November
  • SK Telecom: Three Key Catalysts
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Trading – One of the Weakest Subscription Rates of the Year
  • S Korean Banks Screen; KB Financial (105560 KS) Most Compelling on Valuations, Return Trends & PEG


EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part

By Arun George

  • The KRX has completed its review and excluded Eoflow (294090 KS) from the substantive review for listing eligibility. Therefore, trading will resume tomorrow, 16 November.
  • The shares should rise on trading resumption as Medtronic’s tender remains in play, KRX’s review supported Eoflow’s business continuity and the short-selling ban-driven market rally.
  • Deal break risks remain significant. Medtronic Plc (MDT US)’s long-dated closing date and lack of Eoflow integration job postings suggest it remains concerned about near-term unfavourable court rulings. 

Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November

By Douglas Kim

  • On 15 November, the Korea Exchange announced that Eoflow (294090 KS) will start trading again on 16 November.
  • The fact that KRX has allowed Eoflow to trade again will be viewed positively by many investors. Plus, the recent temporary ban on short selling should also positively impact Eoflow.
  • We believe a higher probability event is for Medtronic to complete a tender offer of Eoflow sometime in 2Q 2024 at about 26,000 won. 

SK Telecom: Three Key Catalysts

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss three key catalysts that are likely to positively impact SK Telecom in the next several months.
  • The current gap between SK Telecom’s 2023 expected dividend yield (6.6%) and US 10 year treasury note (4.47%) is 2.13%.
  • The gap between SK Telecom’s dividend yield and US 10 year treasury note yield could widen to 3-4%+ in 2024, making SK Telecom’s dividend yield more attractive. 

Ecopro Materials IPO Trading – One of the Weakest Subscription Rates of the Year

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) raised around US$320m, after downsizing the deal and pricing its IPO at the low end of the range at KRW36,200/share.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

S Korean Banks Screen; KB Financial (105560 KS) Most Compelling on Valuations, Return Trends & PEG

By Victor Galliano

  • In our latest South Korean banks screener; we switch from Hana Financial to KB Financial as our preferred Korean banks pick
  • NPLs and precautionary quality credits continue on a rising trend, whilst KB has controlled its NPL ratio and precautionary ratio better than most to 3Q23
  • KB has a low PBV ratio relative to its ROE, rising post-provision returns, a healthy CET1 ratio and a healthy LDR; Kakaobank is one for the watchlist

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Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, ZEEKR, Xperi, Bakkt, HNI Corp, Immersion Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Navigating the Crude Oil Crack Spread
  • ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution
  • XPER: Scaled for Growth
  • Bakkt Holdings, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Solid Execution in a Challenging Environment
  • HNI Corporation – Introducing User-Friendly Model
  • IMMR: Ramp in Auto Has Begun


Navigating the Crude Oil Crack Spread

By Pranay Yadav

  • Crack spread refers to the gross processing margin of refining (“cracking”) crude oil into its by-products.
  • Crack spreads are affected by seasonality, supply, and inventory levels of crude and refined products, as well as demand for each refined product.
  • A low-demand outlook for refined products of crude is prevalent due to expectations of an economic slowdown.

ZEEKR IPO Preview: A Geely-Backed Fast-Growing Decacorn in China’s EV Revolution

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a fast-growing premium BEV maker, filed its F-1 last week. The company is going public through an IPO and offering ADSs of a Cayman Islands holding company.
  • In 2022, Geely agreed to spin off ZEEKR and list its EV maker in Asia/the U.S. The company has raised ~$1.6B and was backed by Geely and top-tier investors.
  • Geely Auto will hold 50%+ of the voting power upon completing an IPO. ZEEKR’s last round was a $750M Series A in February 2023 at a $13B post-money valuation. 

XPER: Scaled for Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER reported third quarter results in line with our forecast and reaching an inflection point in revenue where the operating leverage of the business becomes visible.
  • Ahead of the results, there had been worries over XPER’s exposure to consumer electronics and pay TV industries that could cripple revenue growth.
  • XPER reported third quarter revenue of $130.4 million compared to our forecast of $130.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $9.3 million compared to our forecast of $9.2 million

Bakkt Holdings, Inc. – 3Q23 Earnings Show Solid Execution in a Challenging Environment

By Water Tower Research

  • Bakkt reported a 3Q23 loss of $0.19/share on net revenue of $14.6 million, slightly below our estimates of a loss of $0.18/share loss on net revenue of $15.5 million (consensus was for a loss of $0.17/share on $16.1 million).
  • The crypto environment continues to be challenging. President and CEO Gavin Michael said the quarter “clearly demonstrated our ability to execute” in a tough market.
  • Michael also highlighted the company’s push and significant progress in expanding outside the US, which is in need of clarifying legislation.

HNI Corporation – Introducing User-Friendly Model

By Water Tower Research

  • We are publishing this note to introduce a new HNI financial model inclusive of the acquisition of Kimball International.
  • We expect this new model will be more user-friendly for investors who want to see how we arrive at our estimates or tinker with the assumptions.
  • Per our discipline, our model is available on request or visible through our partners.

IMMR: Ramp in Auto Has Begun

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IMMR’s third quarter results affirmed our investment thesis of the Company beginning to experience an increase in automotive revenue by the end of 2023.
  • IMMR reported quarterly revenue above our forecasts citing an increase of approximately $1.9 million from automotive related customers.
  • IMMR has a reputation with investors for generating revenue from smartphones and video game consoles. The inclusion of haptics within automotive was the reason we were drawn to the stock.

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Most Read: Benefit One Inc, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), Eoflow , HKEX, DCM Holdings, Pasona Group, Atlantic Lithium , AIA Group Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics
  • I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer
  • EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part
  • FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out
  • Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact
  • StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile
  • Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November
  • Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again
  • US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way


Big M3 (2413) Partial TOB As Pasona Sells Control of Benefit One (2412): Really Interesting Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close with Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) reporting earnings, M3 Inc (2413 JP) announced a Partial Tender Offer to buy 81.21-83.31mm shares of Benefit One at ¥1600/share.
  • That cleans out Pasona, which owns 81.21mm shares. Or does it… Shareholder structure dynamics and the problems they cause later bear some detailed examination. 
  • This one is going to be a fun special sit.

I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie

By Travis Lundy


Benefit One (2412 JP): M3’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) announced a partial tender offer from M3 Inc (2413 JP) at JPY1,600 per share, a 40.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The transaction facilitates Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s exit. The offer is for a minimum of 81.2 million shares (51.16% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 87.3 million shares (55.00%). 
  • Irrevocables from Pasona represent a 51.16% ownership ratio, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is light vs. historical multiples and share prices. 

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Trading Suspension Lifted, Now for the Hard Part

By Arun George

  • The KRX has completed its review and excluded Eoflow (294090 KS) from the substantive review for listing eligibility. Therefore, trading will resume tomorrow, 16 November.
  • The shares should rise on trading resumption as Medtronic’s tender remains in play, KRX’s review supported Eoflow’s business continuity and the short-selling ban-driven market rally.
  • Deal break risks remain significant. Medtronic Plc (MDT US)’s long-dated closing date and lack of Eoflow integration job postings suggest it remains concerned about near-term unfavourable court rulings. 

FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out

By Brian Freitas

  • The FRTIB has decided to switch its benchmark for the International Stock Index Investment Fund from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index.
  • With around US$68bn invested in the I Fund, this will set off churn among the constituent stocks in 2024. One-way trade is around US$28bn with DM outflows and EM inflows.
  • The benchmark shift could be done over a 4 month period with higher trading during periods where liquidity opportunities arise.

Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact

By Travis Lundy

  • DCM Holdings (3050 JP) and Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.
  • Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.
  • That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.

StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile

By David Blennerhassett

  • A double dose of StubWorld this week as Pasona Group (2168 JP) finally takes the hint to sell (if not exit altogether) its holding in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Pasona/Benefit One are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Eoflow: Outlook After Trading Resumes on 16 November

By Douglas Kim

  • On 15 November, the Korea Exchange announced that Eoflow (294090 KS) will start trading again on 16 November.
  • The fact that KRX has allowed Eoflow to trade again will be viewed positively by many investors. Plus, the recent temporary ban on short selling should also positively impact Eoflow.
  • We believe a higher probability event is for Medtronic to complete a tender offer of Eoflow sometime in 2Q 2024 at about 26,000 won. 

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • Livent (LTHM US)‘s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector’s fundamental outlook remains strong. 
  • And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
  • African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.

US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board which manages the four major funds in the Thrift Savings Plan for US federal government employees will change benchmark for its International Fund
  • This was announced on 14 November. The transition will take place “in 2024.” It entails moving from MSCI EAFE to MSCI All Country World ex-USA ex-China ex-HongKong Investable Market Index.
  • The explanation: double the countries, lots more stocks, BUT CHINA! This means selling ~US$1.6bn of HK stocks but US$20bn of one-way flow in total (lots of Japan/UK/Europe to sell)

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Daily Brief India: Adani Transmission, Tata Technologies, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR
  • Tata Technologies IPO: The Investment Case
  • EQD | Is It Time for a NIFTY Index Pullback?


Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Tata Technologies IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D service provider, seeks to raise US$350-375 million, which is lower than its previous target of US$600 million.
  • Tata Technologies is seeking a valuation of US$2.5 billion, which is 27.5% higher than the valuation TPG Inc (TPG US) acquired a 9.0% stake on 25 October.
  • The investment case rests on top-tier growth rates, strong core business, lower reliance on Vinfast (VFS US), high repeat rates, top-tier profitability, solid FCF profile and no debt. 

EQD | Is It Time for a NIFTY Index Pullback?

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index closed the last 2 weeks up (CC=+2), reversing from an oversold condition. This week the index started going up again, but it’s not going anywhere…
  • The index barely crossed the Q1 resistance at 19334, but if closes this week up, the WEEKLY CC=+3 condition will be an “OVERBOUGHT” signal, a pullback could start.
  • Going SHORT is probably not worth it, we don’t see a large pullback coming, it’s probably better to simply hedge your positions.

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Daily Brief Japan: Pasona Group, DCM Holdings, SUMCO Corp, Freee KK, Terumo Corp, Onward Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile
  • Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact
  • Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb
  • Freee 1Q: Earnings Beat; Qualified Invoice System to Further Drive Earnings
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Record High Revenue and OP in H1FY24; Better Profitability Expected in H2FY24
  • Onward on the March: More Profit from Japanese Apparel Firms
  • Why Should Policy Shares Be Viewed as Including Deemed Shares Held?


StubWorld: Pasona’s Expanding Cash Pile

By David Blennerhassett

  • A double dose of StubWorld this week as Pasona Group (2168 JP) finally takes the hint to sell (if not exit altogether) its holding in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Pasona/Benefit One are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Aeon/DCM/Keiyo Deal Changes on DCM TOB for Keiyo – Watch for Market Impact

By Travis Lundy

  • DCM Holdings (3050 JP) and Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) signed capital and business tie-up agreements 30+yrs ago. Recently, DCM bought Keiyo.
  • Aeon got some money from this and has decided to put that money back into DCM shares.
  • That changes both the current dynamics and future shareholder structure. And that leads to interesting questions about the outcome.

Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

By William Keating

  • Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining
  • SUMCO’s Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 
  • The company vowed to make “substantial” production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. 

Freee 1Q: Earnings Beat; Qualified Invoice System to Further Drive Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) ’s 1QFY06/2024 results beat consensus estimates. Introduction of qualified invoicing system in October has resulted in strong corporate user growth for the company.
  • Upfront investment in selling and marketing has helped freee onboard a large no. of corporate clients prior to the introduction of the new invoice system.
  • Freee expects selling and advertising spending to decline going forward which should help the company reach break-even in FY06/2025E.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Record High Revenue and OP in H1FY24; Better Profitability Expected in H2FY24

By Tina Banerjee

  • In H1FY24, Terumo Corp (4543 JP)‘s revenue increased 10% YoY to ¥443.9B, mainly driven by a 13% YoY growth in C&V business, due to strong global demand of catheter products.  
  • Revenue from TIS (catheter) segment reported 12% YoY growth to¥176.5B, driven by a 12% YoY growth in overseas business, with EU and China being the main drivers.
  • Terumo has reiterated FY24 guidance, which implies significant improvement in operating profit in H2FY24 due to the realization of the full effect of global price revision and cost cutting initiatives.

Onward on the March: More Profit from Japanese Apparel Firms

By Michael Causton

  • Some of Japan’s big apparel firms are making a comeback, and only some of the recent growth is coming from department stores.
  • Most of the revival is thanks to direct sales through e-commerce and stores, and the increasingly seamless links between them.
  • Onward Holdings is one of the leaders in this renaissance and is delivering the same profits as it used to with 30% higher sales.

Why Should Policy Shares Be Viewed as Including Deemed Shares Held?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Tobin’s Q is not high for companies whose policy holdings are low relative to their net assets or total assets. When discussing policy shareholdings, deemed shareholdings should be included.
  • Companies with a low ratio of total policy holdings plus deemed holdings to total assets have notably higher ROE, ROA, and Tobin’s Q. Vice versa.
  • These companies generate returns exceeding their cost of capital and are managed with asset and capital efficiency in mind, which shows in their approach to policy shareholdings as governance practices.

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Daily Brief China: HKEX, Haitong International Securities Group, AIA Group Ltd, Tencent, Galaxy Entertainment Group, WuXi XDC Cayman , Taste Gourmet, Genecast Group, SJM Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out
  • Haitong International (665 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied
  • US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way
  • Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth
  • Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points
  • Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy
  • WuXi XDC Cayman IPO Trading – Strong Subscription Rates Heading into Listing
  • Taste Gourmet Q2 2023, Far Better Than Expectations 5.3x PE, 27% Mkt Cap In Cash, 9% Yield
  • Pre-IPO Genecast Group – NGS Still Has Long Way to Go; Valuation Performance Is Worrying
  • Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings


FRTIB Switches Benchmarks: +EM/-DM; US$56bn Trade as Asia EM Benefits & HK Loses Out

By Brian Freitas

  • The FRTIB has decided to switch its benchmark for the International Stock Index Investment Fund from the EAFE Index to the ACWI IMI ex-USA ex-China ex-Hong Kong Index.
  • With around US$68bn invested in the I Fund, this will set off churn among the constituent stocks in 2024. One-way trade is around US$28bn with DM outflows and EM inflows.
  • The benchmark shift could be done over a 4 month period with higher trading during periods where liquidity opportunities arise.

Haitong International (665 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • The pre-condition relating to Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)’s privatisation offer from Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH) is satisfied. The offer is at HK$1.52 per share. 
  • The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. The high takeover premium facilitates approval. 
  • This is a done deal. At the last close and for an estimated early February 2024 payment, the gross and annualised spread is 5.6% and 26.4%, respectively.

US Fed. Rtir’mt Thrift Board Changes Intl Benchmark, Excludes HK, US$1.6bn HK to Sell, $20bn 1-Way

By Travis Lundy

  • The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board which manages the four major funds in the Thrift Savings Plan for US federal government employees will change benchmark for its International Fund
  • This was announced on 14 November. The transition will take place “in 2024.” It entails moving from MSCI EAFE to MSCI All Country World ex-USA ex-China ex-HongKong Investable Market Index.
  • The explanation: double the countries, lots more stocks, BUT CHINA! This means selling ~US$1.6bn of HK stocks but US$20bn of one-way flow in total (lots of Japan/UK/Europe to sell)

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.
  • Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.
  • Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.

Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

By Howard J Klein

  • Our review of the  three stocks here reveals considerable run room ahead as revenue  recovery in Asia gaming is  outpacing  forecasts.
  • These companies  have proven   resilient after taking big hits during covid crisis.
  • Balance sheets are stronger, revenue  rising, margins  improved–much of  this not as yet  reflected in valuations.

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.
  • The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.

WuXi XDC Cayman IPO Trading – Strong Subscription Rates Heading into Listing

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Taste Gourmet Q2 2023, Far Better Than Expectations 5.3x PE, 27% Mkt Cap In Cash, 9% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported Q2 profits 25% over our expectations at 30 mn HKD (81% YoY), led by net margin expansion to 11.2% (vs. our expectation of 8.8%)
  • The net cash of 133 mn HKD represents around 27% of market capitalization, which is used to increase the restaurant count in HK from 42 to 48 QoQ.
  • The company declared a 5.5 cent interim dividend (Vs. 4.8 cents last year). We believe they can declare a 12.5/13 cent dividend for FY24 (March-End)

Pre-IPO Genecast Group – NGS Still Has Long Way to Go; Valuation Performance Is Worrying

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The clinical need for NGS hasn’t developed as rigid demand due to high cost, difficult operation, high requirements on hospitals/personnel, etc. It takes time for NGS to improve market penetration.
  • Genecast’s LDT business could face compliance issue.Its in-hospital business has lower gross margin.Increasing R&D expenditure is inevitable since products need to get approval by regulatory authorities, putting pressure on profitability. 
  • Burning Rock is in a leading position in NGS field, but its market value is quite low. We advise investors to be prepared for valuations to fall short of expectations.

Morning Views Asia: SJM Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Atlantic Lithium , Crude Oil, EcoPro Materials, Nanoco Group PLC, SSH Group Ltd, TMC the metals co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again
  • Navigating the Crude Oil Crack Spread
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Trading – One of the Weakest Subscription Rates of the Year
  • Nanoco Group – First commercial order fulfilled – major milestone
  • SSH Group Ltd – Restructured and Poised to Deliver
  • TMC the Metals Company, Inc. -ISA Discussions on Track and PAMCO MoU Adds a Strong Partner


Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder’s Offer. Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • Livent (LTHM US)‘s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector’s fundamental outlook remains strong. 
  • And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
  • African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.

Navigating the Crude Oil Crack Spread

By Pranay Yadav

  • Crack spread refers to the gross processing margin of refining (“cracking”) crude oil into its by-products.
  • Crack spreads are affected by seasonality, supply, and inventory levels of crude and refined products, as well as demand for each refined product.
  • A low-demand outlook for refined products of crude is prevalent due to expectations of an economic slowdown.

Ecopro Materials IPO Trading – One of the Weakest Subscription Rates of the Year

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS) raised around US$320m, after downsizing the deal and pricing its IPO at the low end of the range at KRW36,200/share.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Nanoco Group – First commercial order fulfilled – major milestone

By Edison Investment Research

Nanoco’s announcement that it has fulfilled its first commercial order heralds the company’s transition from a development-stage company to a commercial supplier of quantum materials. The order provides support for our FY24 forecasts and is a key milestone on the company’s pathway towards becoming self-financing in FY25, with the potential to scale up significantly beyond that, if design wins in high-volume sensing applications can be secured.


SSH Group Ltd – Restructured and Poised to Deliver

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • SSH Group (ASX:SSH) is a labour and equipment hire business operating predominantly in Western Australia with a focus on the key growth sectors of construction, resources, and energy.
  • SSH listed in September 2021, issuing 31.25m shares at $0.20/share to raise $6.25m, along with the issue of 20.5m shares to the vendors of a labour-hire group of companies, Site Services.
  • In May 2022, SSH acquired equipment hire group KMH for $15m or 3.9x FY21 EBITDA. 

TMC the Metals Company, Inc. -ISA Discussions on Track and PAMCO MoU Adds a Strong Partner

By Water Tower Research

  • 3Q23 results showcase management’s focus. TMC reported 3Q23 results that included solid cost control as G&A expenses declined to $4.6 million and operating loss was reduced to $12.5 million for the quarter versus the $28.6 million loss in the year-ago period.
  • Liquidity to cover operating and capital costs. With $22.5 million of cash on hand as of September 2023 and with the infusion of the $25 million in equity raise (inclusive of $9 million to be received by the end of 2023), in addition to the $25 million undrawn unsecured credit facility from Allseas, TMC has the liquidity and capital tools it needs to submit the provisional application to the ISA in 2H24.
  • The company continues to work on securing more strategic funding to ensure sufficient liquidity to get into production once the exploitation application has been submitted.

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