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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics, Taeyoung Engineering & Construction, Apar Industries, J&T Global Express, Amaero International Ltd, Qantm Intellectual Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Robotics IPO Trading – Strong Insti Subscription Rates but Still Feels like a Punt
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #25: Taeyoung E&C [P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x]
  • APAR Industries- Forensic Analysis
  • J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively
  • Amaero International Ltd – Transformative Decision to Dedicate First Atomiser to C-103
  • QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd – FY23 Peer Metrics Underscore QIP’s Relative Value


Doosan Robotics IPO Trading – Strong Insti Subscription Rates but Still Feels like a Punt

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) raised around US$318m in its Korea IPO, after pricing its IPO at the top end of the range at KRW26,000/share.
  • Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Korea Small Cap Gem #25: Taeyoung E&C [P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x]

By Douglas Kim

  • Taeyoung Engineering & Construction (009410 KS) is the 25th company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series.
  • Taeyoung E&C is a mid-sized construction company in Korea with a market cap of 146 billion won. Its shares are trading at P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x. 
  • At the end of 1H 2023, the company had 6.1 trillion won in order backlog, representing a backlog/sales ratio is 2.3x.

APAR Industries- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Apar Industries (APR IN) is the global leader in aluminum and alloy conductor manufacturing. The company is also India’s largest and world’s third largest transformer oil manufacturers. 
  • After two silent years during covid, the company’s operations have taken off and there is growth reported in each of its three business segments.
  • The balance sheet has also shown improvement and looks stable. But, our principle concerns remain on the operating cash flow side, which looks to be misstated.

J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

By Arun George


Amaero International Ltd – Transformative Decision to Dedicate First Atomiser to C-103

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
  • The company is developing a 1,000+-tonne a year critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA, and announced last week that its first EIGA gas atomiser would be dedicated to the refractory alloy powder, C103 (niobium 89%,-hafnium 10%,-titanium 1%), for hypersonic and space applications.
  • The decision to focus initially on C103 is in response to US industry demand for refractory alloy powders and driven by the talent and expertise that Amaero has brought together in its senior executive team. 

QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd – FY23 Peer Metrics Underscore QIP’s Relative Value

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd (ASX:QIP) owns a group of intellectual property (IP) services businesses operating under the independent brands of Davies Collison Cave (DCC), FPA Patent Attorneys, and Sortify.tm.
  • It is a major player in the mature and regulated Australian patent, trade marks and IP legal services market with ~16.5% market share (FY23) in its key patents segment (67% of revenue) and a diversified mix of local and foreign clients (~45%/55% split; ~50% US$ revenue).
  • We have reviewed recent results from the listed Australian and UK companies that we consider to be peers and have found that QIP mostly outperformed the group in terms of EBITDA margin expansion in FY23.

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Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Monex Group Inc, IDFC First Bank Limited, Biotech Growth Trust PLC/The and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still
  • NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet
  • IDFC First Bank QIP – Well Flagged but Valuations Appear Lofty
  • The Biotech Growth Trust – Historic low sector valuations


StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

By David Blennerhassett

  • New World Development (17 HK) nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of NWS Holdings (659 HK) moves gradually forward. 
  • Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)‘s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
  • Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
  • Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.

IDFC First Bank QIP – Well Flagged but Valuations Appear Lofty

By Ethan Aw

  • IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN) is looking to raise up to INR30bn (US$361m) via a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP). 
  • The deal is a relatively small one to digest at 6.3 days of three month ADV and 4.9% dilution.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

The Biotech Growth Trust – Historic low sector valuations

By Edison Investment Research

The Biotech Growth Trust (BIOG) now has two co-managers, Geoff Hsu and Josh Golomb, at global healthcare specialist OrbiMed Capital. The trust has experienced a difficult period of relative performance due to the managers’ approach of focusing on emerging (smaller-cap) biotech stocks rather than large-cap biotech businesses, because of their higher growth prospects. This strategy has been out of favour in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Hsu and Golomb highlight attractive valuations in the biotech sector, which are not reflecting favourable industry fundamentals, including high levels of innovation across a range of therapeutic areas and an acceleration in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) ahead of an upcoming patent cliff.


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Daily Brief Consumer: CJ Corp, Rakuten Group , Pendragon PLC, Soybean Oil Active Contract, Autozone Inc, CALB Group , Greggs PLC, Ralph Lauren, Columbia Sportswear Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CJ Corp: FTC Could Crack Down on CJ Olive Young With Huge Fines
  • Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year
  • Proposals, Sweetened Offers & Synergies
  • Changing Dynamics of the Soybean Crush
  • AutoZone Inc.: Discover the Profit Engines Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned
  • Greggs – FY23 profit expectations reiterated
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Exclusive Insight into the Power Moves Driving Positive Revenue! – Major Drivers
  • Columbia Sportswear: Navigating Through DTC Struggles & Seasonal Sales Shifts! – Major Drivers


CJ Corp: FTC Could Crack Down on CJ Olive Young With Huge Fines

By Douglas Kim

  • CJ Corp’s share price declined sharply by 10.7% to reach 80,200 won on 4 October. CJ Olive Young is the number one health & beauty store chain in Korea. 
  • According to local media, CJ Olive Young is in danger of being fined large amounts of money by the Fair Trade Commission (FTC).
  • It appears likely that CJ Corp’s share price could fall further close to the five year low end of the trading range (60,000 won) in the next several weeks.

Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Rakuten Group (4755 JP)‘s shares plummeted 80% in 8 years, reaching ¥500 in June 2023 due to ¥1.3 trillion mobile business losses.
  • Expecting a positive shift as Rakuten Mobile approaches platinum band access and subscribers poised for exponential growth following the KDDI agreement.
  • We are expecting Rakuten Mobile to turn profitable next year, while the consensus is projecting an operating loss of around ¥200bn for the business.

Proposals, Sweetened Offers & Synergies

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The game is on with the sweetened offer from Lithia, valued at 35.4p/share (24.5p divi + stake in Pinewood). Pendragon PLC (PDG LN)‘s shares are trading just below, at 35.2p.
  • It is now the turn of either Hedin or AutoNation to raise their offers. 32p/share seems a fair value for the standalone business. Synergies could be worth up to 10.54p/share.
  • Assuming a bidder distributes 60% of synergies to Pendragon shareholders, a potential offer price of 38.3p/share, in cash, 8% above Lithia’s offer, could still be value enhancing.

Changing Dynamics of the Soybean Crush

By Pranay Yadav

  • Soybeans are crushed into soy oil and soymeal. The crush represents the Gross Processing Margin of Soybean.
  • The crush has been increasingly affected by the price of soy oil compared to soymeal. Ample meal supply suppresses its prices.
  • Meanwhile, soy oil prices are buoyed by supply concerns in the US as it is increasingly used to produce biodiesel.

AutoZone Inc.: Discover the Profit Engines Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AutoZone delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company achieved a total sales growth of 7.4% for the fiscal year, accompanied by a 12.9% increase in earnings per share.
  • Additionally, the company has introduced new reporting metrics to provide enhanced visibility, including same-store sales results for domestic, international, and total company operations.

CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB Group (3931 HK) raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2022. The lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders will expire tomorrow.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Greggs – FY23 profit expectations reiterated

By Edison Investment Research

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and price growth. The strength of underlying trading in Q323 is highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24.


Ralph Lauren Corporation: Exclusive Insight into the Power Moves Driving Positive Revenue! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren managed an all-around beat in the last quarter delivering a strong performance that highlights the resilience of its strategy and the adaptability of its teams in a dynamic global environment.
  • The quarter witnessed positive revenue growth that surpassed guidance, marking a return to gross margin expansion while effectively managing peak raw material costs.
  • The company’s commitment to cost discipline enabled a 100 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin, reaching 13.7%, resulting in a 9% increase in operating profit.

Columbia Sportswear: Navigating Through DTC Struggles & Seasonal Sales Shifts! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Columbia Sportswear Company delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • Columbia Sportswear’s expectations were essentially met as the gross margin increased by 140 basis points.
  • In the quarter, net sales for the Columbia brand grew 11%.

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Daily Brief Australia: Amaero International Ltd, Qantm Intellectual Property, State Gas Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Amaero International Ltd – Transformative Decision to Dedicate First Atomiser to C-103
  • QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd – FY23 Peer Metrics Underscore QIP’s Relative Value
  • State Gas – First Gas Milestone Is Around the Corner


Amaero International Ltd – Transformative Decision to Dedicate First Atomiser to C-103

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero International Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace, and other industrial sectors.
  • The company is developing a 1,000+-tonne a year critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA, and announced last week that its first EIGA gas atomiser would be dedicated to the refractory alloy powder, C103 (niobium 89%,-hafnium 10%,-titanium 1%), for hypersonic and space applications.
  • The decision to focus initially on C103 is in response to US industry demand for refractory alloy powders and driven by the talent and expertise that Amaero has brought together in its senior executive team. 

QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd – FY23 Peer Metrics Underscore QIP’s Relative Value

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • QANTM Intellectual Property Ltd (ASX:QIP) owns a group of intellectual property (IP) services businesses operating under the independent brands of Davies Collison Cave (DCC), FPA Patent Attorneys, and Sortify.tm.
  • It is a major player in the mature and regulated Australian patent, trade marks and IP legal services market with ~16.5% market share (FY23) in its key patents segment (67% of revenue) and a diversified mix of local and foreign clients (~45%/55% split; ~50% US$ revenue).
  • We have reviewed recent results from the listed Australian and UK companies that we consider to be peers and have found that QIP mostly outperformed the group in terms of EBITDA margin expansion in FY23.

State Gas – First Gas Milestone Is Around the Corner

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • State Gas Limited (ASX:GAS) is a junior energy producer and explorer with assets concentrated in the Bowen Basin, Queensland.
  • The company has released an update on the pre-construction phase of its proposed Rolleston West CNG Project in the Bowen Basin.
  • Significant progress has been made with regulatory approvals on environmental and cultural heritage now received for all construction and pipeline areas; and final site surveys completed. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Doosan Robotics, CJ Corp, Taeyoung Engineering & Construction, Hugel Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Robotics IPO Trading – Strong Insti Subscription Rates but Still Feels like a Punt
  • CJ Corp: FTC Could Crack Down on CJ Olive Young With Huge Fines
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #25: Taeyoung E&C [P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x]
  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Achieves Record High Revenue in 2Q23; Resubmits Marketing Application in US


Doosan Robotics IPO Trading – Strong Insti Subscription Rates but Still Feels like a Punt

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) raised around US$318m in its Korea IPO, after pricing its IPO at the top end of the range at KRW26,000/share.
  • Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

CJ Corp: FTC Could Crack Down on CJ Olive Young With Huge Fines

By Douglas Kim

  • CJ Corp’s share price declined sharply by 10.7% to reach 80,200 won on 4 October. CJ Olive Young is the number one health & beauty store chain in Korea. 
  • According to local media, CJ Olive Young is in danger of being fined large amounts of money by the Fair Trade Commission (FTC).
  • It appears likely that CJ Corp’s share price could fall further close to the five year low end of the trading range (60,000 won) in the next several weeks.

Korea Small Cap Gem #25: Taeyoung E&C [P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x]

By Douglas Kim

  • Taeyoung Engineering & Construction (009410 KS) is the 25th company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series.
  • Taeyoung E&C is a mid-sized construction company in Korea with a market cap of 146 billion won. Its shares are trading at P/E of 1x and P/B of 0.2x. 
  • At the end of 1H 2023, the company had 6.1 trillion won in order backlog, representing a backlog/sales ratio is 2.3x.

Hugel Inc (145020 KS): Achieves Record High Revenue in 2Q23; Resubmits Marketing Application in US

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hugel Inc (145020 KS) reported 28% YoY growth in both revenue and operating profit to KRW81.6B and KRW28B in 2Q23, respectively, driven by solid performance of botulinum toxins and fillers.
  • Hugel has resubmitted marketing application for botulinum toxin in the U.S. for the third time, with approval expected in 1Q24. The U.S. is the world’s single largest botulinum toxin market.
  • The company is seeing North America, Australia, New Zealand, and China as future growth engines to achieve its long-term target revenue of KRW1 trillion and operating profit margin of 45%.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Seatrium , SK Chemicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Oil, Rates & Slower Growth Outlook Steered Markets in 3Q23
  • First ammonia swap traded in Asia on SGX


Oil, Rates & Slower Growth Outlook Steered Markets in 3Q23

By Geoff Howie

  • In 3Q23, the STI generated a total return, marginally outpacing the FTSE ASEAN Extended 60 Index with a 1% total return and FTSE APAC Index with a 1.1% decline in total return.
  • Sembcorp and Keppel, which are both pivoting to sustainable solutions, averaged 3.6% declines in total return over the quarter.
  • The iEdge SG Adv Manufacturing Index generated a 0.5% decline in total return in 2023, bringing its 9-month decline in total return to 1.8%.

First ammonia swap traded in Asia on SGX

By Geoff Howie

  • SGX Commodities is expanding its energy and petrochemical risk management offering with the addition of https://www.sgx.com/derivatives/products/ammonia.
  • The listing of ammonia derivatives underscores SGX Group’s commitment in fostering the global transition towards a low carbon energy matrix by providing relevant tools and solutions that empower the industry with the necessary risk management tools in this transition journey.” A SGX Argus Ammonia CFR East Asia calendar spread trade was completed yesterday, between OQ Trading Limited and SK Chemical Trading (HK) Limited, brokered by SCB Environmental Markets SA.

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Daily Brief United States: Soybean Oil Active Contract, Micron Technology, DocuSign , Autozone Inc, Epam Systems, Guidewire Software, HighPeak Energy Inc, Ralph Lauren, Smartsheet Inc, Ambarella Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Changing Dynamics of the Soybean Crush
  • Micron. Con Te Partirò
  • DocuSign Inc.: Mastering Omnichannel Strategy for Growth & Scalability! – Major Drivers
  • AutoZone Inc.: Discover the Profit Engines Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • EPAM Systems Inc.: A Tale of Unwavering Focus Amidst Declining Health and Tech Sectors! – Major Drivers
  • Guidewire Software Inc.: Can The Hakuba Cloud Offering Become A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
  • HighPeak Energy, Inc. – Refocused on Development
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Exclusive Insight into the Power Moves Driving Positive Revenue! – Major Drivers
  • Smartsheet Inc.: The Silent Growth Machine With Over 13.4 Million Active Users! – Major Drivers
  • Ambarella Inc.: Sequential Business Expansion & Major Growth Drivers


Changing Dynamics of the Soybean Crush

By Pranay Yadav

  • Soybeans are crushed into soy oil and soymeal. The crush represents the Gross Processing Margin of Soybean.
  • The crush has been increasingly affected by the price of soy oil compared to soymeal. Ample meal supply suppresses its prices.
  • Meanwhile, soy oil prices are buoyed by supply concerns in the US as it is increasingly used to produce biodiesel.

Micron. Con Te Partirò

By William Keating

  • Despite beating guidance, Micron’s latest earnings report confirms a still-toxic memory market environment
  • ASPs for both DRAM and NAND have now declined sequentially for the past eight quarters
  • Their HBM3E solution is an unfortunate case of too much, too late. 

DocuSign Inc.: Mastering Omnichannel Strategy for Growth & Scalability! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DocuSign, Inc. delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter, continuing to build momentum in its business by progressing on key projects and enhancing its product offering.
  • With a non-GAAP operating margin of 25%, Q2 total sales of $688 million was up 11% from the same quarter last year.
  • DocuSign shipped and announced several new, highly developed features for its Web Forms offering during the quarter.

AutoZone Inc.: Discover the Profit Engines Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AutoZone delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • The company achieved a total sales growth of 7.4% for the fiscal year, accompanied by a 12.9% increase in earnings per share.
  • Additionally, the company has introduced new reporting metrics to provide enhanced visibility, including same-store sales results for domestic, international, and total company operations.

EPAM Systems Inc.: A Tale of Unwavering Focus Amidst Declining Health and Tech Sectors! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • EPAM Systems, Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, with revenue of $1.17 billion, a 2.1% year-over-year decline on a reported basis and a 2.4% year-over-year decline in constant currency terms.
  • Travel and consumer fell on a year-over-year basis, principally because of decreases in retail, which were only slightly offset by strong growth in travel and hospitality.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Guidewire Software Inc.: Can The Hakuba Cloud Offering Become A Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Guidewire Software delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The management closed 17 cloud deals in the quarter, bringing the total for the year to 37.
  • In terms of adoption, Guidewire achieved 13 go-lives on the Guidewire Cloud Platform during the quarter, reinforcing its positive trajectory.

HighPeak Energy, Inc. – Refocused on Development

By Water Tower Research

  • HighPeak recapitalized its balance sheet with the proceeds from a new $1.2 billion term loan, which closed September 13, 2023.

  • Proceeds were used to redeem $225 million of senior notes due February 2024, $250 million of senior notes due November 2024, and repay all outstanding borrowings under the company’s RBL facility.

  • The remaining proceeds can be used for general corporate purposes. The 2020 RBL was subsequently terminated. The term loan is scheduled to mature September 30, 2026.


Ralph Lauren Corporation: Exclusive Insight into the Power Moves Driving Positive Revenue! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren managed an all-around beat in the last quarter delivering a strong performance that highlights the resilience of its strategy and the adaptability of its teams in a dynamic global environment.
  • The quarter witnessed positive revenue growth that surpassed guidance, marking a return to gross margin expansion while effectively managing peak raw material costs.
  • The company’s commitment to cost discipline enabled a 100 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin, reaching 13.7%, resulting in a 9% increase in operating profit.

Smartsheet Inc.: The Silent Growth Machine With Over 13.4 Million Active Users! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Smartsheet Inc. managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Revenue for the quarter was more than expected and increased by 26% year over year to $235.6 million, while billings increased by 18% year over year to $243.1 million.
  • At the end of the quarter, they had more than 13.4 million active Smartsheet users and an annual recurring revenue of $933 million.

Ambarella Inc.: Sequential Business Expansion & Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ambarella, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Ambarella’s blended ASP was over $12 and is on track to increase by nearly 20% from the previous quarter.
  • Ambarella started porting META’s LLaMA 2 to the CV3-AD-High in the most recent quarter, and their team anticipates making chatbot demos accessible later this year.

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Daily Brief China: New World Development, J&T Global Express, China Oil And Gas, Concord Healthcare Group, CALB Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still
  • J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively
  • China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group – Business Challenges Are Greater than Expected
  • CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned


StubWorld: NWD (17 HK) Is Cheap. It May Get Cheaper Still

By David Blennerhassett

  • New World Development (17 HK) nudges an all-time low P/B and implied stub; as the privatisation of NWS Holdings (659 HK) moves gradually forward. 
  • Preceding my comments on NWD/NWS are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

J&T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively

By Arun George


China Oil & Gas – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

We view China Oil and Gas (COG) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. This takes into account: [1] regulatory risk, with the company having experienced over three years of delays in cost pass-throughs for tariffs in Qinghai (albeit these have since been resolved); [2] COG’s exposure to oil price volatility in the small upstream oil & gas segment; and [3] the company’s track record of aggressive debt-funded acquisitions, albeit management has said that it is not keen on increasing indebtedness for expansion or acquisitions.

COG’s main asset is its 51% interest in downstream gas provider China City Natural Gas, with the remaining 49% held by Kunlun Energy, a subsidiary of SOE PetroChina. Hence, cash leakage from dividends is significant. We believe the relationship with Kunlun helps secure COG’s gas supply and improves the company’s ability to obtain gas distribution concessions. In addition, PetroChina’s parent, China National Petroleum Corporation, previously provided financing to CCNG at competitive rates.

Our Credit Bias on COG is “Stable”, given the company’s solid revenue growth from natural gas sales and distribution, despite volatilities associated with the upstream oil exploitation and production business. COG has historically maintained a sound liquidity profile and reasonable access to funding. That said, we remain cautious over the financial performance of Shandong Shengli (for which COG is the single largest shareholder at 22%). This is as COG has provided guarantees for Shengli’s banking facilities, which could impact COG’s credit profile.  

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Pre-IPO Concord Healthcare Group – Business Challenges Are Greater than Expected

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Concord Healthcare Group (CHG HK)’s hospital business is not strong enough to contribute strong performance consistently, leading to unsatisfactory profit margin considering its weak hospital operation and management capability.
  • The network business could face some legal risks based on our analysis. In the context of anti-corruption campaign in China healthcare, Concord’s business and patients flow could be affected.
  • Together with potential policy risks such as DRGs/centralized procurement, we tend to be conservative about Concord’s outlook. In terms of valuation, Concord’s valuation should be lower than Inkon Life Technology.

CALB IPO Lock-Up – US$2.6bn Lockup Release but Mostly SOE Owned

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB Group (3931 HK) raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2022. The lockup on its pre-IPO shareholders will expire tomorrow.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief Japan: JMDC , Monex Group Inc, Kokusai Electric , Rakuten Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)
  • NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet
  • Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year


JMDC (4483) Partial Offer Update (Updated Pro-Ration Range)

By Travis Lundy

  • When this was launched, it traded more a fair bit on the first day, but then more volume traded than I expected. This could mean a couple of things.
  • Re-Reading the original doc leaves nuances. The change in management responsibilities this past summer make some holders less certain. It’s complicated. 
  • There have been several blocks traded, and a large short instantiated. And if one has a more conservative estimate at a higher top-end participation, the back end gets uglier.

NTT Docomo’s Deal with Monex (8698); The Goal Is Bigger and Better but Not Compelling Yet

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) and NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)‘s NTT Docomo announced a Capital and Business Alliance Agreement. It is a complicated deal.
  • Monex GROUP will create a holdco which owns Monex Inc (the broker) and sell 51% to Docomo. Docomo will consolidate. Monex Group will own 49% as an equity method affiliate.
  • Monex GROUP will then double its dividend, maybe buy back shares, and expects to grow as Docomo pushes and Monex invests. But what remains is a mixed bag.

Kokusai Electric IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Rakuten Group (4755 JP)‘s shares plummeted 80% in 8 years, reaching ¥500 in June 2023 due to ¥1.3 trillion mobile business losses.
  • Expecting a positive shift as Rakuten Mobile approaches platinum band access and subscribers poised for exponential growth following the KDDI agreement.
  • We are expecting Rakuten Mobile to turn profitable next year, while the consensus is projecting an operating loss of around ¥200bn for the business.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: IDFC First Bank Limited, Apar Industries, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IDFC First Bank QIP – Well Flagged but Valuations Appear Lofty
  • APAR Industries- Forensic Analysis
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources


IDFC First Bank QIP – Well Flagged but Valuations Appear Lofty

By Ethan Aw

  • IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN) is looking to raise up to INR30bn (US$361m) via a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP). 
  • The deal is a relatively small one to digest at 6.3 days of three month ADV and 4.9% dilution.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

APAR Industries- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Apar Industries (APR IN) is the global leader in aluminum and alloy conductor manufacturing. The company is also India’s largest and world’s third largest transformer oil manufacturers. 
  • After two silent years during covid, the company’s operations have taken off and there is growth reported in each of its three business segments.
  • The balance sheet has also shown improvement and looks stable. But, our principle concerns remain on the operating cash flow side, which looks to be misstated.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars