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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Sungeel Hitech, HYBE, Ecopro Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation
  • HYBE Shorting Opportunity with a Lockup Release from Dunamu
  • Ecopro Group: Major Equity Grants for 2,706 Employees

KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Given SunEel’s market cap and the level of relevance to the rechargeable battery business, KODEX will likely include it this time around.
  • If you are looking for a short-selling opportunity, I recommend adjusting the timing after this KODEX ETF passive event.
  • If you are long targeting the KOSDAQ 150 inclusion, I recommend taking a slightly longer holding window to additionally target the passive inflow of the KODEX ETF.

HYBE Shorting Opportunity with a Lockup Release from Dunamu

By Sanghyun Park

  • Dunamu may not be in a financial situation that will allow it to hold HYBE shares. With FTX’s liquidity crisis, Upbit’s liquidity management risk will inevitably rise to the surface.
  • Doubts about whether the size of Upbit’s assets is sufficiently absorbing the shock of a bank run are still strongly raised in the local market.
  • These concerns are likely to affect HYBE’s share price as the December 9 release approaches, and yes, we need to design short position setups aimed at this.

Ecopro Group: Major Equity Grants for 2,706 Employees

By Douglas Kim

  • On 15 November, Ecopro Group announced a major equity grant for 2,706 employees that work for various affiliates of the Ecopro Group.
  • The company announced that it will provide equity grant shares worth about 10 million won per employee (for most of the Ecopro Group full time employees as of 30 September).
  • We like what Ecopro Group is trying to do with this equity grant program and we believe this equity grant program will positively impact Ecopro Co and Ecopro BM. 

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Daily Brief Thailand: I-Tail and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB)  .
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at various aspects of the deal. In this note, we talk about its 3Q22 updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

I-Tail Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


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Daily Brief Australia: Monadelphous, Nitro Software Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec
  • Nitro (NTO AU)’s Binding Offer from Alludo to Force Potentia’s Hand?

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

By Brian Freitas


Nitro (NTO AU)’s Binding Offer from Alludo to Force Potentia’s Hand?

By Arun George

  • Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has entered into a binding agreement with Alludo at A$2.00 per share via a scheme or an off-market takeover, with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.
  • This is a good move by the Board to force Potentia to improve its off-market takeover bid of A$1.80 per share. Alludo can leverage synergies to support a higher bid.
  • The shares are trading through Alludo’s terms as there is an expectation of Potentia returning with improved terms. The break fee implies that Potentia needs to offer at least A$2.02.

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Daily Brief Japan: Olympus Corp, Harmonic Drive Systems, Tokyo Electron, Suzuken Co Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, freee, Daiei Kankyo, Kura Sushi Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Olympus Placement – Had Been Doing Well, till Recently
  • Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive – The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Sell into the Bear Market Bounce
  • Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) – The Best News In Years
  • Lax Governance Would Affects Not Only Occurrence of Scandals, but Also Areas Such as Competitiveness
  • Freee: Earnings Beat and Losses Widen as Freee Focuses on Mid-To-Long Term Plan
  • Daiei Kankyo Pre-IPO – Steady, at Best
  • That’s a Wrap, Kura Exits 2022 on a High Note

Olympus Placement – Had Been Doing Well, till Recently

By Sumeet Singh

  • MUFG aims to raise around US$255m via selling around 1% of Olympus Corp (7733 JP).
  • The stock has been doing well recently and MUFG has sold before. Although, the recent earnings updates didn’t go down too well.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive – The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

By Travis Lundy

  • In February 2021 Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) announced it would sell half of its stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) to concentrate on its own products and growth. 
  • It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn’t want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.
  • Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Sell into the Bear Market Bounce

By Scott Foster

  • Tokyo Electron (TEL) has cut sales guidance for 2H of FY Mar-23 by more than 25% and operating profit guidance by more than 50%. 
  • Half of the reduction in sales guidance is due U.S. sanctions on China. Management does not expect demand to pick up until the second half of next year. 
  • The share price has risen by more than 30% in the past five weeks after a slight decline in U.S. inflation. Projected valuations are not particularly attractive.

Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) – The Best News In Years

By Travis Lundy

  • Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.
  • The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. 
  • It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.

Lax Governance Would Affects Not Only Occurrence of Scandals, but Also Areas Such as Competitiveness

By Aki Matsumoto

  • By nature, management is expected to establish an organizational structure that ensures compliance with laws and regulations, and to put in place a management system to ensure such compliance. 
  • This is a governance issue, but it goes beyond that. If a loose corporate culture permeates the company, it would have an impact on various areas, such as reduced competitiveness.
  • Based on the analysis of Metrical Score, companies that have enhanced their corporate governance and performed stable earnings and high stock valuations would have minimized risk of falling into scandal.

Freee: Earnings Beat and Losses Widen as Freee Focuses on Mid-To-Long Term Plan

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • freee (4478 JP) reported 1QFY06/2023 results yesterday. Revenue increased 34.5% YoY to JPY4.24bn (vs consensus JPY4.18) driven by 23.5% YoY growth in paying customers to 386,655 from 313,206 in 1QFY06/2022.
  • As expected, operating losses widened to 24.6% of revenue, however, reported losses of JPY1.0bn was well below consensus estimate of JPY1.6bn.
  • Freee’s share price has moved up by about 5% following earnings announcement which shows that the market is confident over freee’s ability to turn around its profitability.

Daiei Kankyo Pre-IPO – Steady, at Best

By Sumeet Singh

  • Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) (DK), a waste management company, aims to raise around US$280m in its Japan IPO.
  • Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

That’s a Wrap, Kura Exits 2022 on a High Note

By Investment Talk

  • Despite now being valued at ~$635 million (down ~32% from ATHs) Kura Sushi, the small-time restaurant operator with 40 stores across the United States, continues to boast an overzealous market valuation.
  • Perhaps it’s their ability to consistently beat expectations. Perhaps it’s because they remain undercovered and somewhat illiquid for their size (the parent organisation owns a considerable amount of outstanding shares).
  • I can’t be sure, nor do I really care. After reporting Q4 earnings last week, Kura rounded off the year in style, continuing to demonstrate a healthy recovery in demand for their service.

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Daily Brief India: Sapphire Foods, Bikaji Foods, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Escorts Kubota Limited, Thermax and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Sapphire Foods IPO – Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry
  • Bikaji Foods International IPO Trading – One of the Strongest Demand This Year
  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Mixed 2QFY23 Result; Outlook Is Positive
  • Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Costly Market Share Gains & AR Concerns
  • Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

Sapphire Foods IPO – Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Nov 2021, Sapphire Foods Limited (SFL), one of Yum Brand’s franchisees in the Indian subcontinent, raised around US$280m in its Indian IPO. 
  • The lock-up on its shareholders will expire soon, with a number of PE funds on its register
  • In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

Bikaji Foods International IPO Trading – One of the Strongest Demand This Year

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN) , an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO.
  • Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the demand for the deal and the trading dynamics.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Mixed 2QFY23 Result; Outlook Is Positive

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) recorded 14% y/y growth in revenue in Q2FY23. Occupancy in both the mature as well as new hospitals improved in Q2FY23 compared to prior quarter.
  • Q2FY23 reported EBITDA declined 8% y/y to INR5.65 billion due to impact of 24/7 operating costs, which stood at INR1.74 billion (vs INR475 million in Q2FY22).
  • In October, Apollo Hospitals entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 60% stake in Kerala First Health Services Limited, which offers Ayurveda medical services under the “AyurVAID Hospitals” brand.

Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Costly Market Share Gains & AR Concerns

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) reported a 69 bps YoY gain in market share, but a -540 bps drop in EBITDA margins in spite of a 2% price hike.  
  • We believe the product and management issues highlighted earlier, are likely to ensure both margins and market share do not cross 10% for FY23.
  • As per the FY22 Annual Report, auditors have received whistle-blower complaints, but no details are disclosed. Credit-impaired trade receivables are also increasing. Stock is not cheap and hence the caution.  

Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY23, Thermax (TMX IN) recorded strong revenue growth of 41% y/y to Rs20.8bn, driven by strong growth across all the three segments.
  • The company bore the brunt of high raw material prices as EBIT margins saw a 900 bps decline y/y to 6.9%. However, EBIT margin improved 200 bps over Q1FY23.
  • The order book of the company grew 46% y/y to Rs94.8bn. Order book is well diversified across sectors. Domestic orders comprised ~84% of the order book.  

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Daily Brief China: Chindata Group, Country Garden Services Holdings, Yunkang Group, Dongfang Electric, Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chindata: China Merchants Potentially In The Mix
  • Buy Country Garden Services on China Property Sector Recovery
  • Chindata Takeover: China Merchants Enters as Government Interest in Data Centers Increase
  • Yungkang Group Lock-Up – Shares Benefited from a Protracted Lockdown.  Shareholders Could Monetise
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) And CIMC Enric (3669 HK): Two Stocks for the Next Five Years
  • Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH)-Worth a Spot on the Watch List Due to Possibility of Dilemma Reversal

Chindata: China Merchants Potentially In The Mix

By David Blennerhassett

  • Bain Capital-backed Chindata Group (CD US) is on the move after Bloomberg flagged – again – interest from industry players.
  • This time, SOE-backed China Merchants Group is understood to be mulling a takeover of Chindata. Shares are up 23% since that article earlier this month.
  • Back in April, Bloomberg mentioned GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PE outfit PAG, and EQT AB (EQT SS)-backed EdgeConneX were rumoured to be interested in merging with Chindata. 

Buy Country Garden Services on China Property Sector Recovery

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Chinese government outlined 16 steps to support the property industry on Nov 11
  • The newly released measures clearly show that the government has reversed its attitude toward property industry, which may trigger the end of the downcycle.
  • During the property sector rebound, Country Garden Services (CGS) can be a good investment. The company has a solid track record and shows attractive valuation.

Chindata Takeover: China Merchants Enters as Government Interest in Data Centers Increase

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chindata Group (CD US)  is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solutions provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets.
  • At the beginning of the month, Bloomberg reported a takeover offer for Chindata from China Merchants Group, which is a state-owned company.
  • Several state-owned companies have shown interest towards acquiring data centers and data center companies, which is likely to be in line with China’s strategy of digitization.

Yungkang Group Lock-Up – Shares Benefited from a Protracted Lockdown.  Shareholders Could Monetise

By Clarence Chu

  • Yunkang Group (2325 HK) was listed on 18th May 2022, with its six month lockup expiring on 17th November 2022.
  • Yunkang Group is a medical operation service provider in China and as per F&S, had a market share of 3.7% in China’s medical operation service market as per 2020 revenue. 
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the controlling shareholders and cornerstones. With protracted lockdowns underway in China, this stock has continued to benefit, currently trading 86.3% above IPO price. 

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) And CIMC Enric (3669 HK): Two Stocks for the Next Five Years

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China’s ambition to build into a strong manufacturing country as revealed in 20th Party Congress should place Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) and CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) in excellent positions.
  • The leadership in power and new energy equipment industry, improving gross margin outlook, well-covered order book and undemanding multiples are the key merits of Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)
  • CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)‘s good presence in clean energy, chemical/environmental and liquid food segments, global product competitiveness, secured order backlog and net cash position are its major edges. 

Micro-Tech Nanjing (688029.CH)-Worth a Spot on the Watch List Due to Possibility of Dilemma Reversal

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Micro-Tech Nanjing Co Ltd (688029 CH) would face lower-than-expected performance growth in 2022, but the logic of import substitution and increasing demand for endoscopy consumables would help drive future growth.
  • Centralized procurement is a problem, but Micro-Tech’s leading position of endoscopy consumables in China is stable, which wouldn’t be easily affected by centralized procurement when compared with other domestic companies.
  • The valuation of Micro-Tech should be lower than Mindray and Sonoscape, since these two companies have much better performance (both growth and profitability), product competitiveness, business layout and outlook.

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Most Read: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Brilliance China Automotive, Olympus Corp, Harmonic Drive Systems, Sungeel Hitech, Chindata Group, I-Tail, Monadelphous and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Berkshire Buying Could Push ADR Premium Higher
  • HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins
  • Olympus Placement – Had Been Doing Well, till Recently
  • Buffett’s Investment in TSMC – Impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
  • Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive – The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue
  • KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation
  • Chindata: China Merchants Potentially In The Mix
  • I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation
  • Chindata Takeover: China Merchants Enters as Government Interest in Data Centers Increase
  • S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

TSMC (TSM/2330 TT): Berkshire Buying Could Push ADR Premium Higher

By Brian Freitas


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
  • Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
  • Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.

Olympus Placement – Had Been Doing Well, till Recently

By Sumeet Singh

  • MUFG aims to raise around US$255m via selling around 1% of Olympus Corp (7733 JP).
  • The stock has been doing well recently and MUFG has sold before. Although, the recent earnings updates didn’t go down too well.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Buffett’s Investment in TSMC – Impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight will discuss the impact of Buffett’s investment in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS).
  • We believe that Buffett’s sizeable investment in TSMC is likely to have a positive impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
  • This would be similar to how Buffett’s investment in the Japanese trading companies which has had a positive impact on the major Korean trading companies. 

Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive – The Second Half of Splitsville So Pressure to Continue

By Travis Lundy

  • In February 2021 Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) announced it would sell half of its stake in Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) to concentrate on its own products and growth. 
  • It was a not-very-well-held secret Nabtesco had invested wanting to own HDS. HDS didn’t want to be owned. Eventually Nabtesco gave up. So they sold over time into low float.
  • Now they are letting go of the other half. Sale structure means ongoing pressure.

KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Given SunEel’s market cap and the level of relevance to the rechargeable battery business, KODEX will likely include it this time around.
  • If you are looking for a short-selling opportunity, I recommend adjusting the timing after this KODEX ETF passive event.
  • If you are long targeting the KOSDAQ 150 inclusion, I recommend taking a slightly longer holding window to additionally target the passive inflow of the KODEX ETF.

Chindata: China Merchants Potentially In The Mix

By David Blennerhassett

  • Bain Capital-backed Chindata Group (CD US) is on the move after Bloomberg flagged – again – interest from industry players.
  • This time, SOE-backed China Merchants Group is understood to be mulling a takeover of Chindata. Shares are up 23% since that article earlier this month.
  • Back in April, Bloomberg mentioned GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US), PE outfit PAG, and EQT AB (EQT SS)-backed EdgeConneX were rumoured to be interested in merging with Chindata. 

I-Tail Corporation IPO – Blowout 3Q22, Revised Earnings, Updated Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, aims to raise around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB)  .
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at various aspects of the deal. In this note, we talk about its 3Q22 updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Chindata Takeover: China Merchants Enters as Government Interest in Data Centers Increase

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chindata Group (CD US)  is the leading carrier-neutral hyperscale data center solutions provider in Asia Pacific emerging markets.
  • At the beginning of the month, Bloomberg reported a takeover offer for Chindata from China Merchants Group, which is a state-owned company.
  • Several state-owned companies have shown interest towards acquiring data centers and data center companies, which is likely to be in line with China’s strategy of digitization.

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary
  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 4.0% to 5.5% Decline

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
  • The Russell already hit this target while the S&P is closing in, less than 1% away.
  • Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 4.0% to 5.5% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US) has rallied 30% in October/November 2022.  
  • A new 2 month high of 79.53 was produced on Monday 14 November amid extreme bearish ST momentum failure. 
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) < 10 at the high and justifies a further 4.0% to 5.5% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Daily Brief ESG: Lax Governance Would Affects Not Only Occurrence of Scandals and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Lax Governance Would Affects Not Only Occurrence of Scandals, but Also Areas Such as Competitiveness

Lax Governance Would Affects Not Only Occurrence of Scandals, but Also Areas Such as Competitiveness

By Aki Matsumoto

  • By nature, management is expected to establish an organizational structure that ensures compliance with laws and regulations, and to put in place a management system to ensure such compliance. 
  • This is a governance issue, but it goes beyond that. If a loose corporate culture permeates the company, it would have an impact on various areas, such as reduced competitiveness.
  • Based on the analysis of Metrical Score, companies that have enhanced their corporate governance and performed stable earnings and high stock valuations would have minimized risk of falling into scandal.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sea Ltd: Another Sell-Off? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: Another Sell-Off?
  • Buy Country Garden Services on China Property Sector Recovery
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Sell into the Bear Market Bounce
  • Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) – The Best News In Years
  • Palantir Inc: Major Drivers
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) And CIMC Enric (3669 HK): Two Stocks for the Next Five Years
  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Mixed 2QFY23 Result; Outlook Is Positive
  • Block Inc (formerly Square Inc): Continuing Bullish Approach Towards Crypto
  • Datadog Inc: The Cloudcraft Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

Sea Ltd: Another Sell-Off?

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • The last leg of Sea Ltd (SE US)’s original bull thesis is about to break with Shopee’s revenue expected to start declining from 3Q22 onwards.
  • However, a lower-than-expected operating loss, driven by cost-cutting could get the bulls excited for a short while following the 3Q22 results due later this week.
  • With the business remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to profit on the short-side as the FV of Sea could be around $10bn EV.

Buy Country Garden Services on China Property Sector Recovery

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Chinese government outlined 16 steps to support the property industry on Nov 11
  • The newly released measures clearly show that the government has reversed its attitude toward property industry, which may trigger the end of the downcycle.
  • During the property sector rebound, Country Garden Services (CGS) can be a good investment. The company has a solid track record and shows attractive valuation.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Sell into the Bear Market Bounce

By Scott Foster

  • Tokyo Electron (TEL) has cut sales guidance for 2H of FY Mar-23 by more than 25% and operating profit guidance by more than 50%. 
  • Half of the reduction in sales guidance is due U.S. sanctions on China. Management does not expect demand to pick up until the second half of next year. 
  • The share price has risen by more than 30% in the past five weeks after a slight decline in U.S. inflation. Projected valuations are not particularly attractive.

Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) – The Best News In Years

By Travis Lundy

  • Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.
  • The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. 
  • It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.

Palantir Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter.
  • Its $478 million in revenue surpassed Wall Street expectations but the company missed out on the earnings expectations of analysts.
  • U.S. commercial business expanded for the ninth consecutive quarter, up 53% yearly.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) And CIMC Enric (3669 HK): Two Stocks for the Next Five Years

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China’s ambition to build into a strong manufacturing country as revealed in 20th Party Congress should place Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) and CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) in excellent positions.
  • The leadership in power and new energy equipment industry, improving gross margin outlook, well-covered order book and undemanding multiples are the key merits of Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)
  • CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)‘s good presence in clean energy, chemical/environmental and liquid food segments, global product competitiveness, secured order backlog and net cash position are its major edges. 

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN): Mixed 2QFY23 Result; Outlook Is Positive

By Tina Banerjee

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) recorded 14% y/y growth in revenue in Q2FY23. Occupancy in both the mature as well as new hospitals improved in Q2FY23 compared to prior quarter.
  • Q2FY23 reported EBITDA declined 8% y/y to INR5.65 billion due to impact of 24/7 operating costs, which stood at INR1.74 billion (vs INR475 million in Q2FY22).
  • In October, Apollo Hospitals entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 60% stake in Kerala First Health Services Limited, which offers Ayurveda medical services under the “AyurVAID Hospitals” brand.

Block Inc (formerly Square Inc): Continuing Bullish Approach Towards Crypto

By Baptista Research

  • Block delivered a decent set of results with an all-around beat and good profitability during the last quarter.
  • Its BNPL platform produced $150 million in gross profit in the third quarter, distributed between Square and Cash App.
  • Inflows per active user have been improving in the third quarter compared to the first and second quarters and stable year over year.

Datadog Inc: The Cloudcraft Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Like most technology stocks, Datadog has also taken a massive beating in terms of its share price but its financial performance has been good.
  • The company reported strong results for the third quarter and managed an all-around beat.
  • Since customers continue to manage their companies with greater cost consciousness, the company observed current customer usage growth at similar levels as Q2.

Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q2FY23, Thermax (TMX IN) recorded strong revenue growth of 41% y/y to Rs20.8bn, driven by strong growth across all the three segments.
  • The company bore the brunt of high raw material prices as EBIT margins saw a 900 bps decline y/y to 6.9%. However, EBIT margin improved 200 bps over Q1FY23.
  • The order book of the company grew 46% y/y to Rs94.8bn. Order book is well diversified across sectors. Domestic orders comprised ~84% of the order book.  

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