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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Financials: Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac’s A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac’s A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

By David Blennerhassett

  • For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
  • Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock’s all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)‘s “superior” scrip proposal. 
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn’t work. 

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Amorepacific Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Estimating Fund Size Tracking KOSPI MID Cap Index

Estimating Fund Size Tracking KOSPI MID Cap Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • About ₩3T trillion is presumed to flow from NPS to KOSPI MID. Then, ₩0.8T from local publicly raised funds should be sitting in KOSPI MID. Adding these two alone amounts ₩4T.
  • Of course, this is ACTIVE. In other words, they do not need to proceed with universe changes due to rebalancing at the same pace as ETFs.
  • Nevertheless, we should note that the domestic fund industry does not allow a large gap with BM. Hence, at least ₩4T of funds follow KOSPI MID quite tightly.

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief United States: Tjx Companies, Cardinal Health, Constellation Brands, Csx Corp, Dollar General and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The TJX Companies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Macro & Key Drivers
  • Albemarle Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts
  • Cardinal Health Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Positioning In An Oligopolistic Market & Key Drivers
  • Cardinal Health Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Constellation Brands Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts
  • Constellation Brands Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • CSX Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers
  • CSX Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Dollar General Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Dollar General Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

The TJX Companies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Macro & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on TJX Companies is pleased with its third-quarter performance.
  • The company once more produced solid profitability and a fantastic merchandise margin.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of The TJX Companies with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Albemarle Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Albemarle Corporation, one of the largest producers of lithium, bromine, and other related specialty chemicals across the globe.
  • The strong performance for its lithium segment was driven by higher volumes and higher realized pricing.
  • Albemarle is realigning its core bromine and lithium businesses to energy specialties and storage and expects it to be effective next month.

Cardinal Health Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Positioning In An Oligopolistic Market & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Cardinal Health, one of the largest wholesalers within the healthcare domain in the U.S.
  • The company delivered a mixed result in the last quarter surpassing revenue expectations of Wall Street but missing out on earnings.
  • Cardinal delivered higher than its expectations in its Pharma segment despite managing industry-wide inflationary headwinds.

Cardinal Health Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Cardinal Health is one of the largest wholesalers within the healthcare domain in the U.S.
  • The company’s recent financial performance has been fairly decent, largely driven by its Pharma segment growth despite managing industry-wide inflationary headwinds.
  • Upstream and Specialty, the company’s third-party logistics business, has been continuing its strong growth new launches.

Constellation Brands Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Constellation Brands, a dominant player in the international alcoholic beverage market, particularly the Mexican beer space.
  • The buy rate increased in the quarter for both total wine categories and high-end beer in tracked channels.
  • The beer business of the company remained well placed that continues to support the steady growth of the brands.

Constellation Brands Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Constellation Brands is a major player in the international alcoholic beverage market, particularly the Mexican beer space.
  • The beer business of the company is well placed that continues to support the steady growth of the brands.
  • Among other developments, Constellation Brands has recently reached a pact with The Wine Growth to divest a portion of the company’s premium and mainstream wine portfolio.

CSX Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on CSX, one of the largest providers of rail-based freight transportation services in the United States.
  • Their competitive advantages should encourage more CSX rail shipping from their clients, but they still need to concentrate on making this happen.
  • We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

CSX Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation is one of the largest providers of rail-based freight transportation services in the United States.
  • The company’s services include not only traditional rail service and transport of intermodal containers and trailers but also rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations.
  • Their competitive advantages should encourage more CSX rail shipping from their clients, but they still need to concentrate on making this happen.

Dollar General Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar General Corporation is a major discount retailer operating in the U.S.
  • The company’s business has been impacted by inflation and the ongoing supply chain issues but it has managed a decent comp sales growth and market share growth of both consumable and non-consumable product sales in recent results.
  • This includes challenges within the company’s supply chain, higher inventory shrink and damages, sales mix pressures, and everything that impacted gross margin.

Dollar General Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on major discount retailer, Dollar General Corporation.
  • Its revenue growth was led by comp sales growth and in market share of both consumable and non-consumable product sales.
  • Dollar General, during the quarter, experienced significantly higher cost pressures.

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SET50, Stock Connect, Kanzhun, Futu, AMFI

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SET50, Stock Connect, Kanzhun, Futu, AMFI

By Brian Freitas

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Dec 25
0

Daily Brief Japan: Jafco Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac’s A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac’s A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

By David Blennerhassett

  • For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
  • Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock’s all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)‘s “superior” scrip proposal. 
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn’t work. 

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 23rd): Tencent, AIA, GWM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, Pilbara, Macquarie, Inghams, Nufarm, ANZ, CBA.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 23rd): Tencent, AIA, GWM

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 23rd based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief Private Markets: ParagonCorp Arm Pours Funding into Indonesian Shariah Fintech Firm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • ParagonCorp Arm Pours Funding into Indonesian Shariah Fintech Firm

ParagonCorp Arm Pours Funding into Indonesian Shariah Fintech Firm

By Tech in Asia

  • Alami, an Indonesia-based Shariah fintech startup, has secured an undisclosed amount in a capital injection from Paragon Beneva Investama, an investment arm of local cosmetics firm ParagonCorp.
  • Founded in 2018, Alami is a peer-to-peer lender that provides invoice financing to MSMEs in Indonesia.
  • The company has disbursed over 3 trillion rupiah (over US$191 million) to fund over 10,000 MSME projects across various strategic sectors in the country.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief ESG: Not Sure if Activist Investor’s Agenda Will Be Approved and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Not Sure if Activist Investor’s Agenda Will Be Approved, but JSF’s Value May Be Higher than Expected

Not Sure if Activist Investor’s Agenda Will Be Approved, but JSF’s Value May Be Higher than Expected

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies wouldn’t accept shareholder proposals, interpreting that they need’t disclose individual executive compensation if it’s below certain amount and that they can continue holding policy-shares if the policy is defined.
  • Even if JSF claims to have enhanced corporate governance practices, it is reasonable  for shareholders to demand a review of its management strategy for a company with below average ROE.
  • The company, which doesn’t require very large capital expenditures, plays a role in the infrastructure of the capital market, and has an oligopoly on the market, may be worth more.

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Dec 24
0

Daily Brief ECM: JEIO Lowers IPO Price Range and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • JEIO Lowers IPO Price Range
  • TEMC IPO Valuation Analysis

JEIO Lowers IPO Price Range

By Douglas Kim

  • JEIO, a manufacturer of carbon nanotubes for rechargeable batteries, has lowered its IPO price range and offering amount in order to list on the KOSDAQ market.
  • The company lowered the IPO price range to 10,000 won to 13,000 won from 15,000 won to 18,000 won range previously.
  • Our base case valuation of JEIO is target price of 11,268 won per share, which is 2% lower than the mid-point of the IPO price range.

TEMC IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base valuation of TEMC is target price of 38,363 won per share. At the mid point of the IPO price range, our target price would represent a 10% upside. 
  • Typically, we require a 15-20% upside in terms of target price versus the IPO price. In this case, given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View. 
  • Our target price is based on a target P/E of 8.5x in 2023 which is the average P/E of the comps.

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