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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 26
0

United States: Razer Inc, Valmont Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Razer (1337 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of Court Meeting
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/25

Razer (1337 HK): Trading Wide Ahead Of Court Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • Razer Inc (1337 HK)‘s Court Meeting will be held tomorrow.
  • The highly anticipated abolishment of the headcount test will not become law ahead of the shareholder vote.
  • Trading at a gross spread of 8%, unchanged since the record date. That’s positive. Plus this Offer has proxy advisor support.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/25

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.
  • Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.
  • The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers

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Apr 25
0

TMT: Bitcoin, SSG.Com Corp, ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd, Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Weekly: The Fed, ApeCoin, Coinbase and More
  • SSG.Com & 11st: Need to Drastically Cut Their Valuations to Complete Their IPOs in 2022/2023
  • ASE Holding (3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/​​ 2Q22 Outlook- The Hope Might Be in 2H22
  • VIX Index on the Move

Crypto Weekly: The Fed, ApeCoin, Coinbase and More

By Josh Du

  • Crypto complex rose mid-week but ended the week down after Powell confirmed market’s expectation of 50bps hike in May 
  • Uncorrelated to the rest of market, ApeCoin (APE CURNCY)  continues to grind higher in anticipation of Yugalab’s Land mint event on April 30th, possibly the largest NFT mint in history 
  • Coinbase (COIN US) launched a beta version of its NFT marketplace as direct competition to the $13bn dollar Opensea; and much more

SSG.Com & 11st: Need to Drastically Cut Their Valuations to Complete Their IPOs in 2022/2023

By Douglas Kim

  • SSG.com is getting ready for an IPO in 2H 2022/1H 2023. Local media have mentioned that SSG.com is targeting a valuation of 10 trillion won for the company.
  • We believe SSG.com would need to cut the valuation by at least 50% (5 trillion won) in order to complete its IPO. 
  • We believe valuation levels of 11st would need to come down significantly in the 2 trillion won to 3 trillion won range in order for an IPO to be completed. 

ASE Holding (3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/​​ 2Q22 Outlook- The Hope Might Be in 2H22

By Patrick Liao

  • ASE Holding revenue was NTD$144.4bn in 1Q22, which was 20.9% YoY and -16.5% QoQ. We expect the GM is 19.5% in 1Q22.
  • ASE Holding could target at NTD$148.1bn/20.5% GM in 2Q22. We expect the gross margin of IC ATM and EMS portions are around 26.8%/9.1% respectively.
  • We think it should be picking up since 2Q22 because of the seasonality, and it’s likely to peak out until 4Q22.

VIX Index on the Move

By Shyam Devani

  • The bullish breakout on the VIX Index looks similar to January
  • Further gains are expected, probably this week and as we enter May
  • As a consequence expect continued losses on the S&P 500

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Apr 25
0

Equity Bottom-Up: NagaCorp Ltd, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H), ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd, Cimc Enric Holdings, VGI PCL, PTT E&P, Siam Cement, TMBThanachart Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nagacorp: Cambodia Is Open, Covid at Low, Stock Attractive as Alternative to Macau Tourist Gamblers
  • Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play
  • ASE Holding (3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/​​ 2Q22 Outlook- The Hope Might Be in 2H22
  • CIMC Enric (3899 HK): A Favourable Start
  • VGI: Moderate Earnings Recovery with Growth Remain Promising
  • PTTEP: Hedging Loss to Drag 1Q22 Net Profit
  • SCC: Expect a Soft Start in 1Q22 Amid Cost Pressure
  • TTB: So Far so Good

Nagacorp: Cambodia Is Open, Covid at Low, Stock Attractive as Alternative to Macau Tourist Gamblers

By Howard J Klein

  • We have long been bullish on Nagacorp Ltd. on long term fundamentals. We are now seeing rising positivity as market sentiment begins to recognize ASEAN covid recovery coming.
  • Stock is at midpoint of 52 week range at HKD$6.97. Our 1 year target is HKD$10.425 based on what we see trending from its 1Q22 unaudited results.
  • All revenue segments up: Morgan Stanley report agrees with our view that shares present an immediate opportunity due to potential in cross border gamblers and ASEAN mass.

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.
  • Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.
  • The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.

ASE Holding (3711.TT): 1Q22 Results/​​ 2Q22 Outlook- The Hope Might Be in 2H22

By Patrick Liao

  • ASE Holding revenue was NTD$144.4bn in 1Q22, which was 20.9% YoY and -16.5% QoQ. We expect the GM is 19.5% in 1Q22.
  • ASE Holding could target at NTD$148.1bn/20.5% GM in 2Q22. We expect the gross margin of IC ATM and EMS portions are around 26.8%/9.1% respectively.
  • We think it should be picking up since 2Q22 because of the seasonality, and it’s likely to peak out until 4Q22.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): A Favourable Start

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cimc Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has an encouraging 1Q22 with 24.9% revenue growth. If not the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns in Mar, growth would even reach 35.2%.
  • Total new orders increased 23.2% in the quarter even in a period disrupted by lockdowns. Backlog stands at Rmb15.5bn, enough to fully cover FY22 revenue with 7% growth.
  • Hydrogen energy business, though still small, witnessed 80.5% revenue growth. Good demand drives new orders to Rmb105.4m; and its backlog of Rmb180m equals to 5x of 1Q22 revenue. 

VGI: Moderate Earnings Recovery with Growth Remain Promising

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We maintain BUY rating for VGI with the new target price of Bt6.20 (Previous TP: Bt6.50), derived from SOTP method or 50% premium to Thai media peers.  
  • We anticipate revenue streams from media and commercial space (recently started to manage by NINE),to retreat to 70% of the level we have seen during pre-pandemic by late 2QFY23 (July’22-September’22)
  • The management revenue target in FY2023 at Bt6.5bn-7.0bn is fairly optimistic as we anticipate OOH media revenue to not recover that quickly.

PTTEP: Hedging Loss to Drag 1Q22 Net Profit

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We expect PTTEP to post 1Q22 net profit of Bt9.4bn (-18% YoY, -11% QoQ). Despite significant growth in sales volume and product selling price
  • Excluding the one-time items, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt16.6bn (+228% YoY,-3% QoQ). YoY surge will be underpinned  by a 11% growth in sales volume and a 25% 
  • Bright 2022 outlook from crude oil & gas price surge. We see the volatility to continue considering continued Russia-Ukraine war tensions, Reserve oil release by IEA members and COVID-19 

SCC: Expect a Soft Start in 1Q22 Amid Cost Pressure

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • Maintain BUY rating with a TP of Bt445.00 based on 13.7xPE’22E which is close to its 10-years trailing average.
  • We foresee 1Q22 core profit to be the bottom quarter at Bt7bn (-53%YoY,-2%QoQ), pressured by tighter chemical spreads after naphtha price soared from higher oil price.
  • We expect earnings recovery from 2Q22 onwards, following improve chemical spreads driven by prices catching up with rising costs, plus better CBM and packaging unit.

TTB: So Far so Good

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Bt1.60. Our BUY call reflects (1) steady growth ahead; (2) adequate reserves against new NPLs, and (3) compelling valuation.
  • Net profit in 1Q22 came in at Bt3.2bn (+15% YoY, +14% QoQ) and was 13% higher than our expectation on lower-than-expected personal expenses.
  • Asset quality was resilient. The NPL ratio decreased to 2.7% in 1Q22 and the loan loss coverage ratio was higher to 131.6% to cope with uncertainties ahead

Related tickers: NagaCorp Ltd (3918.HK), Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347.HK), Cimc Enric Holdings (3899.HK), VGI PCL (VGI.BK), PTT E&P (PTTEP.BK), Siam Cement (SCC.BK), TMBThanachart Bank (TTB.BK)

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Apr 25
0

China: Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H), Cimc Enric Holdings, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play
  • CIMC Enric (3899 HK): A Favourable Start
  • Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.
  • Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.
  • The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): A Favourable Start

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Cimc Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has an encouraging 1Q22 with 24.9% revenue growth. If not the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns in Mar, growth would even reach 35.2%.
  • Total new orders increased 23.2% in the quarter even in a period disrupted by lockdowns. Backlog stands at Rmb15.5bn, enough to fully cover FY22 revenue with 7% growth.
  • Hydrogen energy business, though still small, witnessed 80.5% revenue growth. Good demand drives new orders to Rmb105.4m; and its backlog of Rmb180m equals to 5x of 1Q22 revenue. 

Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Apr 25
0

Equity Capital Markets: SK Shieldus and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Shieldus IPO: The Syndicate’s Revised Methodology

SK Shieldus IPO: The Syndicate’s Revised Methodology

By Arun George

  • SK Shieldus (ABFHIZ KS) is a leading South Korean security provider. It is seeking a KRX IPO to raise up to US$0.9 billion. 
  • The primary change in the updated prospectus is the syndicate’s valuation methodology which results in a 10% lower value per share. The IPO price range of KRW31,000-38,800 is unchanged.
  • Sentiment on IPOs remains poor. For investors willing to look at IPOs, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range remains reasonable.  

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Apr 25
0

Event-Driven: Bank Central Asia, Toyo Construction, Converge ICT Solutions, Nissan Motor, Ramsay Health Care and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • ToyoKen (1890) – YFO Proposes ¥1,000/Share So Now We Need Discussions
  • MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Week 1 in the Review Period
  • Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Apr) – VNET, Yashili, Dongzheng AFC, Sezzle, Link, Razer, Ramsay Health

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and sell Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) at the close on 28 April.
  • There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.

ToyoKen (1890) – YFO Proposes ¥1,000/Share So Now We Need Discussions

By Travis Lundy

  • Yamauchi No10 Family Office (YFO) Friday declared a fourth buyer in its group and reached 26.28% as of the 19th. 
  • Toyo Construction revealed a back-and-forth between itself and YFO in which it was revealed It YFO had also proposed a Tender Offer at ¥1,000/Share subject to discussions and Board Agreement. 
  • This, and YFO’s position make Infroneer’s ¥770/share Tender Offer somewhat untenable. Shares could become more volatile. 

MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Week 1 in the Review Period

By Brian Freitas

Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested Renault SA (RNO FP) is considering selling some of its 43% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to help fund its efforts in EVs.
  • Sources were “people familiar with the matter.” Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do “scoops” on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.
  • However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. 

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Apr) – VNET, Yashili, Dongzheng AFC, Sezzle, Link, Razer, Ramsay Health

By Arun George

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Apr 25
0

Consumer: Nissan Motor, NagaCorp Ltd, CP FOODS, GFPT Public Company Limited, Home Product Center, VGI PCL and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.
  • Nagacorp: Cambodia Is Open, Covid at Low, Stock Attractive as Alternative to Macau Tourist Gamblers
  • Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF.BK) – Outlook Improving; U/G To Buy
  • Gfpt Pcl (GFPT.BK) – Better Outlook May Prompt Higher Guidance
  • Home Product Center (HMPRO.BK) – Expect 1 Q22 E Rebound
  • VGI: Moderate Earnings Recovery with Growth Remain Promising

Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested Renault SA (RNO FP) is considering selling some of its 43% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to help fund its efforts in EVs.
  • Sources were “people familiar with the matter.” Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do “scoops” on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.
  • However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. 

Nagacorp: Cambodia Is Open, Covid at Low, Stock Attractive as Alternative to Macau Tourist Gamblers

By Howard J Klein

  • We have long been bullish on Nagacorp Ltd. on long term fundamentals. We are now seeing rising positivity as market sentiment begins to recognize ASEAN covid recovery coming.
  • Stock is at midpoint of 52 week range at HKD$6.97. Our 1 year target is HKD$10.425 based on what we see trending from its 1Q22 unaudited results.
  • All revenue segments up: Morgan Stanley report agrees with our view that shares present an immediate opportunity due to potential in cross border gamblers and ASEAN mass.

Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF.BK) – Outlook Improving; U/G To Buy

By Maybank Research

  • More positive sentiment
  • Vietnam subsidiary to list on HCM stock market
  • CPV’s sales growing
  • Improving swine prices to support earnings recovery

Upgrade to BUY from HOLD with TP of THB27.9. The upcoming IPO of subsidiary CP Vietnam (CPV) will give it more flexibility to raise funds for further business expansion as well as unlock value of CPV. This is a new development creating positive sentiment on CPF. CPF’s 1Q22 resultsare likely to be lacklustre but CPF’s share price dropped 5% in the past three months possibly pricing in the weak 1Q22 profit outlook. Besides, we see prospects for improvement in 2Q22 from the favourable livestock prices.

Gfpt Pcl (GFPT.BK) – Better Outlook May Prompt Higher Guidance

By Maybank Research

  • We see upside to guidance; raising our earnings, TP
  • 1Q22 sales growth likely driven by volume and price
  • Recovery in gross margin to push profit higher
  • Better prospects

Home Product Center (HMPRO.BK) – Expect 1 Q22 E Rebound

By Maybank Research

  • Encouraging 1Q22E recovery, maintain BUY
  • Sales and occupancy rebounds drive earnings growth
  • Inflationary pressures present but manageable
  • Positive earnings bias

VGI: Moderate Earnings Recovery with Growth Remain Promising

By Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

  • We maintain BUY rating for VGI with the new target price of Bt6.20 (Previous TP: Bt6.50), derived from SOTP method or 50% premium to Thai media peers.  
  • We anticipate revenue streams from media and commercial space (recently started to manage by NINE),to retreat to 70% of the level we have seen during pre-pandemic by late 2QFY23 (July’22-September’22)
  • The management revenue target in FY2023 at Bt6.5bn-7.0bn is fairly optimistic as we anticipate OOH media revenue to not recover that quickly.

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Apr 25
0

Indonesia: Bank Central Asia, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and sell Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) at the close on 28 April.
  • There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.

Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Apr 25
0

Most Read: Bank Central Asia, Toyo Construction, Converge ICT Solutions, Nissan Motor, Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • ToyoKen (1890) – YFO Proposes ¥1,000/Share So Now We Need Discussions
  • MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Week 1 in the Review Period
  • Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, STI, FTSE China 50, Ramsay Health Care

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and sell Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) at the close on 28 April.
  • There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.
  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.

ToyoKen (1890) – YFO Proposes ¥1,000/Share So Now We Need Discussions

By Travis Lundy

  • Yamauchi No10 Family Office (YFO) Friday declared a fourth buyer in its group and reached 26.28% as of the 19th. 
  • Toyo Construction revealed a back-and-forth between itself and YFO in which it was revealed It YFO had also proposed a Tender Offer at ¥1,000/Share subject to discussions and Board Agreement. 
  • This, and YFO’s position make Infroneer’s ¥770/share Tender Offer somewhat untenable. Shares could become more volatile. 

MSCI May 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Week 1 in the Review Period

By Brian Freitas

Renault (RNO FP) To Sell Nissan (7201 JP) Shares? Not Yet, and Not Yet Positive Nissan.

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday, a Bloomberg article suggested Renault SA (RNO FP) is considering selling some of its 43% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to help fund its efforts in EVs.
  • Sources were “people familiar with the matter.” Since 2018, Bloomberg and Les Echos have been the outlets which do “scoops” on the Renault/Nissan relationship, but they are not always right.
  • However, it raises some interesting questions and possibilities. And given the prices, it makes the decision somewhat uncomfortable for both. 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, STI, FTSE China 50, Ramsay Health Care

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the price cutoff of the MSCI May SAIR commenced last week and will run through the coming week. MSCI normally chooses a day from week 1.
  • Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd (YZJFH) will list on 28 April and one stock will be deleted from the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) at the close on 4 May.
  • There were inflows to China and Taiwan focused ETFs, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.

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Apr 25
0

Health Care: Ramsay Health Care, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Apr) – VNET, Yashili, Dongzheng AFC, Sezzle, Link, Razer, Ramsay Health
  • Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Apr) – VNET, Yashili, Dongzheng AFC, Sezzle, Link, Razer, Ramsay Health

By Arun George

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (3347.HK/300347.CH) – The Business Model May Not Be a Safe Play

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Despite solid growth in 2021, if seen from prior years, the revenue YoY growth rate and net profit YoY growth rate showed a state of divergence, which is “interesting”.
  • Since half of Tigermed’s net profits were from investment income,it’s not logical to apply the valuation methods of traditional CXO to Tigermed. Its CRO and investment should be valued separately.
  • The poor IPO sentiment, risk of recession and the domestic healthcare rational return would make investors reconsider if Tigermed’s “CRO + PE/VC business model” would be a safe play.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Learn More