Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Revenue increased by 73.9% YoY to JPY25.4bn, with operating profit rising 149.6% YoY to JPY11.2bn.
Capital gains reached JPY10.9bn, with JPY7.6bn from IPO-related share sales and JPY3.4bn from unlisted shares.
Total investment executed in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 was JPY30.6bn, with JPY14.5bn for domestic VC investments.

Jafco- Continues to Perform

By Rikki Malik

The company has had good 2024 absolute and relative to Topix performance.
Will Jafco continue this winning streak into 2025 and beyond?
Results for the quarter ending December 2024 are encouraging with exit multiples increasing

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

By Victor Galliano

Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Net operating revenue was JPY9.0bn, with a YoY increase of 4.5% and a QoQ decrease of 9.8%.
SG&A expenses rose to JPY5.4bn, up 6.8% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, with personnel expenses at JPY999mn.
Net trading profit reached JPY1.1bn, up 3.6% YoY and down 8.3% QoQ, primarily from FX transactions.

Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased 17.9% YoY to JPY7.8bn, driven by growth in rent guarantee services; operating profit rose 11.0% YoY.
Total contracts in force reached 475,000 (+4.0% YoY), with Guarantee business contracts increasing 20.7% YoY to 349,000.
Solution business revenue declined 14.5% YoY as customers switched to guarantee contracts, reducing contracts in force by 24.7% YoY.

GBLI: Global Indemnity Group reorganizes its business under a new project called Project Manifest. These moves will create a more efficient and lateral structure.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Health Care: Sigma Healthcare, Maze Therapeutics, Metsera, Novo Nordisk A/S, Lantheus Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger
Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
Is It Time to Go Long Novo Nordisk (NVO US)?
LNTH: Evergreen Acquisition Promotes Future Innovation

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors

The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger

By Tina Banerjee

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) announced that more than 99% of the shareholders cast vote in favor of the merger with CWG. The merger now remains subject to court approval.
The court hearing is scheduled on February 3, 2025. If the Court approves the merger, it is expected that implementation of the merger scheme will occur on February 12, 2025.
CWG continued healthy performance, with double-digit like-for-like retail network sales growth and 400bps EBIT margin expansion in H1FY25. We are bullish on the long-term growth prospect of the merged entity.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

Is It Time to Go Long Novo Nordisk (NVO US)?

By Avien Pillay

GLP-1s are “a solution” for obesity and not “the solution”. There are over 100 GLP-1s in development and this space could become very commoditised.
Its valuation has certainly become a lot more palatable, and Novo Nordisk is now trading on a FPE of 24.
Lilly’s Zepbound is the preferred GLP-1: Given the better tolerance, and superior results, Zepbound is chosen over Wegovy.

LNTH: Evergreen Acquisition Promotes Future Innovation

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH)

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Consumer: CyberAgent Inc, Ather Energy, Canon Marketing Japan, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Lands’ End Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth
Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals
Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
BWMX: Snapping the Catalog; Ready for the New Year; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
LE: Snapping the Catalog; Shift to Spring, Swimwear Begins; Reiterate Buy, PT

CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.
The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.
Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.

Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Sales increased by 7.3% YoY to JPY653.9bn, driven by IT solutions and maintenance/operations services.
FY12/25 forecasts: Sales JPY680.0bn (+4.0% YoY), Operating profit JPY56.0bn (+5.4% YoY), Net income JPY39.5bn (+0.5% YoY).
IT solutions sales expected to grow YoY, with a 7% increase in SI services and 10% in outsourcing.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog; Ready for the New Year; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the January catalog.
The catalog has continued to focus on driving overall newness, with SKU counts remaining near record highs.
with a combination of new products and returning favorites.

LE: Snapping the Catalog; Shift to Spring, Swimwear Begins; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End after reviewing the January catalog.
We believe, as the seasons begin to slowly switch from one company strength (outerwear) to another (swimwear), Lands’ End has continued to reduce overall discounting, focus even more on key fashion winners, become even more of a source for key outfits and looks, added to their technological and story telling resources and expand sales of higher margined licensed products.
As such, we believe customer shifts and a focus on higher margin product offerings remain fully on tap, and we believe 2025 is shaping up as another year of material progress for Lands’ End: we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

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Jan 30

Most Read: Fast Retailing, NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation, NuScale Power , Vedanta Ltd, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Iljin Hysolus, Sigma Healthcare, Infinity Natural Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger
Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP).
3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
“Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

By Nimish Maheshwari

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.
This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.
Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.

Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear.
But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play

By Sanghyun Park

Short selling returns March 31, after 85% of the KOSPI 200’s rebalancing. Stocks set for removal will be prime short targets.
Stocks removed have solid liquidity, tight passive impact gaps between them, and with short selling restarting March 31, we could see intensified volume in the short basket.
With rebalance ahead, price action may start early. Market exposure means aggressive moves could happen before the end of March, so consider building futures positions before short selling resumes.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief ESG: Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster

Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster

By Aki Matsumoto

Overseas investors have sold off heavily in Japanese equities since July, and it’ll interesting to see the trading trends in January, which will reflect their asset allocation for the year.
Overseas investors buy Japanese equities when they expect the management of Japanese companies to change and improve their profitability and growth potential.
Benchmark investors who have reduced their investment weighting in Japanese equities may return to their investment weighting if they expect a relative improvement in Japanese equity investment performance in 3Q.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): DeepSeek R1. Ahem and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..
Ohayo Japan | AI Anxiety Fades (For Now)
Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel’s like a Dead Cat Bounce
Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI
Singapore Banks: Singapore’s Financial Powerhouses Capitalizing on the City’s Continued Rise
India’s Inflation Eases to 5.22%: What Does It Mean for the Economy?
Japan Consumer Markets: What’s Next?
# India Insight 92: Adani Faces Deal Revocation, Reliance Buys SIL, Premium Products Thrive
Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT’s FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.
Thematic Report: How Indian Hotel Sector Is Bucking the Trend of Slowdown?

DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..

By William Keating

DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!

Ohayo Japan | AI Anxiety Fades (For Now)

By Mark Chadwick

The Nasdaq jumped over 2% – Nvidia surged nearly 9%, leading the rally after shedding $589 billion in market value the previous session.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely watched. Earnings from Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are also in focus
Sumitomo Heavy has acquired French semiconductor equipment manufacturer LASSE, bolstering its European presence and global semiconductor business

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel’s like a Dead Cat Bounce

By Andrew Jackson

Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.
Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.
IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.

Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI

By Jim Handy

A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term

Singapore Banks: Singapore’s Financial Powerhouses Capitalizing on the City’s Continued Rise

By Kilde

Singapore banks are earning record profits, driven by elevated net interest margins and rising fee income.
Assets under management (AUM) grew significantly in 2024 for Singapore’s banks. DBS leads with S$401bn of AUM as of 3Q24 (+13.6% YoY), while OCBC reported S$284bn of AUM (+5.2% YoY), and UOB reached S$186bn.
Total non-interest income for DBS, OCBC, and UOB in 3Q24 rose 29% YoY to over S$5bn combined.

India’s Inflation Eases to 5.22%: What Does It Mean for the Economy?

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s retail inflation dipped to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, aided by moderating food prices and stable core inflation below 4%.
Although food inflation subsided, especially in vegetables, prices remain elevated, keeping inflation above the 4% RBI target and impacting monetary policy decisions and household spending.
With structural shifts in CPI weightage and strong agricultural prospects, inflation looks more manageable, suggesting cautious optimism but underscoring the RBI’s readiness to adjust rates if pressures resurface.

Japan Consumer Markets: What’s Next?

By Michael Causton

On the surface, Japan is burdened with an ageing, declining population and a consumer economy where inflation is the only important topic of conversation.
But this belies the fact that the shops are full and retailers are, on the whole, more profitable than ever.
Households remain wealthy with growing stocks of savings and 2025 will be all about unlocking this money.

# India Insight 92: Adani Faces Deal Revocation, Reliance Buys SIL, Premium Products Thrive

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Sri Lanka revokes a power purchase agreement with Adani Group amidst corruption allegations. While the group denies the accusations, the new government is reevaluating the project.
Reliance Consumer Products acquires SIL Food India, a packaged foods brand, to strengthen its FMCG portfolio and to compete with giants Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN).
Despite inflation, demand for premium products like groceries, spirits, clothing, and shoes remains strong, especially in cities.

Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT’s FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.

By Singapore Market Roundup

Suntec REIT’s future outlook uncertain, with analysts predicting lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.
OUE REIT’s performance post FY2024 results continues to divide opinions amongst analysts.
DBS maintains ‘buy’ rating and $3 target price for Seatrium, while reporting weak overseas assets for MPACT in 3QFY2025.

Thematic Report: How Indian Hotel Sector Is Bucking the Trend of Slowdown?

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s economy is facing a temporary slowdown but there is one sector which ditched the slowdown trend
The leader of sector just said their upcoming quarter Q4FY25 will be similar to Q3FY25.
The hotel sector is slowly turning into a non-cyclical sector from a cyclical sector.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

By Joe Jasper

DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, China Water Affairs, Anton Oilfield, Tata Steel, China Vanke
In the US, December 2024 new-home sales rose 3.6% m-o-m (1.7% e / 9.6% revised p) to an annualised 698 k units. Full-year newhome sales were up 2.5% y-o-y at 683 k units, with the median sale price rising 2.1% to USD 427 k.
Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid a sell-off in equities, as well as on the back of a strong 5Y notes auction. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 7 bps to 4.20%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.54%.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief ECM: Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the E2W Pioneers
Titan America (TTAM): Cement Producer Seeking IPO Valuation North of $3bn, Set for February Debut
Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range
Goertek Microelectronics Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected

Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue

The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.

Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the E2W Pioneers

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Titan America (TTAM): Cement Producer Seeking IPO Valuation North of $3bn, Set for February Debut

Titan America is a leading vertically integrated, multi-regional manufacturer and supplier of heavy building materials and services sets terms for its IPO.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are leading the IPO that could raise north of $400m.
The IPO is scheduled to debut on February 7th with the parent, Titan Cement, offering 62.5% of the shares in this offering.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range

The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A on Tuesday morning.
With the updated terms, the company could raise as much as $170 million at the high-end of the new range.
We have updated our first day forecast given the bullish momentum during the roadshow.

Goertek Microelectronics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Goertek Inc A (002241 CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, CSI, CMB and UBS.
It is a world-leading provider of smart sensing interaction solutions.
Anchored by its robust one-stop smart sensing interaction platform, the firm is dedicated to driving the transformation of next-generation smart sensing interactions in collaboration with global ecosystem partners.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected

By Clarence Chu

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.

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Jan 29

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer
Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move
SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.
Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)’s Unconditional MGO Now Open
Venture Global (VG US): Excluded from Global & US Indices Despite $50B Market Cap
Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue’s Off-Market Offer
Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Non-Binding Offer

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP).
3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
“Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

3D has announced an unsolicited partial tender offer for NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP) at JPY131,890 per unit, a 10.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The minimum number of units to be purchased is 115,279 (7.80% ownership ratio), and the maximum number of units to be purchased is 189,128 (12.80% ownership ratio).
The modest premium and an implied P/NAV <1x suggest a lightish offer. 3D will have to rethink terms as shares are trading through terms.

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets.
The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That’s probably enough to get this over the line.

SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

Singaporean property play SLB Development (SLB SP) has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Lian Beng (LBG SP)‘s Ong family, at S$0.23/share, a 36.1% premium to undisturbed.
Lian Beng, which was privatised by the Ong family in 2023 – see Lian Beng: Circ Out. IFA (Rightfully) Says Not Fair – holds 77.6% in SLB.
This is done. No competing offer will emerge. I don’t think this needs a bump.

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)’s Unconditional MGO Now Open

Back on the 27 December, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) completed two SPAs, elevating its stake in Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) to 56.97% from 43.45%, triggering an unconditional MGO.
The Composite Doc is now out, and the Offer is open for tendering. The close of the Offer is the 18th Feb, 21 days out. Don’t expect an extension.
The IFA has declared the terms fair & reasonable. Which is probably true.

Venture Global (VG US): Excluded from Global & US Indices Despite $50B Market Cap

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Venture Global (VG US) is forecasted to fail fast-entry to S&P TMI due to insufficient fcap but is expected to be added at the March 2025 review.
Venture Global (VG US) is expected to be excluded from Global & US indices due to low fcap and public voting rights mainly caused by the company’s unlisted shares.
The probability of inclusion in Global & US indices increases exponentially with the selling of Class B shares by Venture Global Partners.

Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue’s Off-Market Offer

Via an off-market offer, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)is aiming to purchase all shares of iron-ore play Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU) at A$1.05/share, a 28% premium to last close.
If Fortescue secures at least 75% of Red Hawk’s shares within seven days, the Offer Price increases to A$1.20/share, a 46% premium to last close
Fortescue’s focus is on Red Hawk’s Blacksmith iron ore project, located ~30 kilometers west of Fortescue’s own Solomon project.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Non-Binding Offer