Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.

7&I (3382) – Artisan Writes (Again) And 7&I Updates (Again) – More Positive Outlook Now

On Thursday 6 March we got a Nikkei article then a company announcement for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s proposed management measures and update on ACT Bid Process.
It involved Isaka-san stepping down, Stephen Dacus stepping up, selling York to Bain for ¥814.7bn, IPOing 7-Eleven US, a ¥2trln share buyback over 5yrs, and ACT process update.
It was OK. Good, bad, and ugly. But Artisan wrote a letter over the weekend and 7&i responded and suddenly, their concerns are mostly addressed and the outlook is different.

Sparx Launches Another Offensively Underpriced Takeover at a Fat Premium – SNT (6319) +94%

Sparx on Friday announced a Tender Offer at 0.55x book and an EV of less than inventory (<20% of revenue) for Snt Corp (6319 JP) – another metal monozukuri company.
Last year they did it on IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP). That one got bumped. This one could too, but cross-holders own nearly 60%.
This kind of company has skill-sets which may be portable but the product line is tied to old Japan. The takeover

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds

On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly.
Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes a Side as Market Trades in a Range

There could be 7 changes at the June rebalance with the Information Technology sector gaining 3 index spots and the Materials sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.45% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 28.1bn (US$3.9bn). There are 6 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
There have been redemptions in mainland China ETFs over the last couple of months and that leads to a lower impact on the stocks compared to the last rebalance.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): A White Knight Bidder Is Emerging

By Arun George

Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has disclosed that it has received initial letters of intent from multiple third parties, reportedly private equity funds, to launch a competing tender offer.
My analysis suggests that a white knight bid could be as high as JPY13,284, 20.8% higher than Nidec’s JPY11,000 offer and 10.2% higher than the last close price of JPY12,050.
Nidec Corp (6594 JP) will take a wait-and-see approach. However, regardless of whether a white knight bidder emerges, Nidec will eventually have to bump.

SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at 10%.
The move was aimed at Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.
Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions.
We’re half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead.
Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It’s just a question of timing.

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thailand and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at 10%.
The move was aimed at Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.
Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Australia: Austal Ltd, De Grey Mining, Iron Ore, Vast Renewables and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Austal (ASB AU)’s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A
De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April
De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote
Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation
Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Vast Renewables (VSTE)

Austal (ASB AU)’s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A

Taking advantage of a doubling in its share price over the last year, Austal is tapping the market to fund the expansion of its US facilities to fulfil US Navy contracts.
Austal is placing out 52.6mn new shares (non-underwritten) at A$3.80/share – ~A$200mn all-in – a 15.6% discount to last close, and effectively tapping out its annual placement capacity.
Provided the placement is squared away, founder John Rothwell will unload $50mn of his own stock. As such, any M&A activity is now firmly on the backburner.

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

By Arun George

The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): 16th April Scheme Vote

Back on the 2nd Dec 2024, De Grey Mining (DEG AU), which boasts one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold projects, announced a merger with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).
Northern Star offered 0.119 new shares for every De Grey share, and will hold ~80.1% of the combined entity upon a successful Scheme, with De Grey shareholders the remaining ~19.9%.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 16th April. Expected implementation on the 5th May. The IE (KPMG) says fair & reasonable.

Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement contingent on the primary being fully subscribed.
The deal will be a large one to digest at 58 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 15.3% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY).
Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.
We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

By Pranay Yadav

Iron ore futures declined by USD 1.75/ton last week, closing at USD 100.45/ton on March 7, trading within a narrower USD 3.90/ton range.
Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with a death cross, MACD signaling weakness, and RSI nearing oversold conditions at 36.61.
Market sentiment remains fragile due to China’s steel production cuts, declining imports, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite potential stimulus measures.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Vast Renewables (VSTE)

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 3.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.3%).
Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.2% of the index) was down 0.6%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.2%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.7% of the index) was down 4.0%.
Top 10 Performers: LCFS, ALTA, ALLIF, LBNK, GIP, TGEN, PEGY, SX, LICY, HCNWF

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Mar 12

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Hanwha Energy, Philoptics Co Ltd., Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling
Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO
Potential KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in June 2025
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 278B Won Shares Block Deal Sale

Properly Interpreting Korea’s Stock Borrow Data for Short Selling

By Sanghyun Park

Local instos borrow from brokers or peers, KSD collects and cleans the data, then KOFIA reports stock borrow balances daily with a two-day lag.
Offshore borrows via EquiLend or PB deals don’t show up—KSD reporting only covers local institution-to-institution stock loans.
Assume 60% of reported borrow balance is real shortable ammo—adjusting for this helps filter out noise in short positioning.

Initial Thoughts on the Hanwha Energy IPO

By Douglas Kim

Hanwha Energy, which is 100% owned by the Hanwha Group owner family members, has started the process of going public. Hanwha Energy could complete its IPO in 2025/2026.
One of the scenarios involving Hanwa Energy is that once it completes its IPO, it could merge with Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS).
Hanwha Energy generated revenue of 4.7 trillion won (up 20% YoY) and operating profit of 215 billion won (up 306.5% YoY).

Potential KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in June 2025

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the potential KOSDAQ 150 rebalance candidates in June 2025.
The top 10 inclusion candidates have sharply outperformed KOSDAQ so far this year. These 10 stocks are up on average 75.3% YTD, outperforming KOSDAQ which is up 6.4% YTD.
The 10 potential deletion candidates in KOSDAQ 150 in June 2025 are down on average 0.9% YTD, underperforming KOSDAQ which is up 6.4% YTD.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 278B Won Shares Block Deal Sale

By Nico Rosti

As reported by Douglas Kim, Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance plan to sell shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been in a flat, bottoming behavior, since November 2024. We have previously discussed the possibility that the stock may start to rally.
At the moment the stock has been down for 3 weeks in a row, our model is indicating a WEEKLY oversold condition that may trigger a (short-term) rally.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Indonesia: Sido Muncul and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Increasingly Diversified Growth

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Increasingly Diversified Growth

By Angus Mackintosh

Sido Muncul remains a standout consumer proxy in Indonesia through its Tolak Angin herbal brand playing into increased health consciousness and through its energy drinks exposure through Kuku Bima.
The company continues to expand its product range in herbal, reducing its reliance on Tolak Angin. F&B is seeing stronger growth, with pharmaceuticals also becoming a more important driver.
Sido Muncul continues to expand its distribution locally across general trade and modern trade, with the international business outgrowing the local business and becoming more important. Valuation remains attractive.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief China: ESR Group , SK Inc, Goldlion Holdings, ATRenew , Quantasing Group , Yuexiu Property and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons
Asia Real Estate Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Singapore buying Sydney office for $70M.
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Acceptable
RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand
QuantaSing Group Limited: EPS Beat on Higher Revenues/Operating Income
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

ESR (1821 HK) Chips Away At Pre-Cons

When the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm offer on the 4th December, it was pre-conditional on a raft of regulatory approvals from no less than eight countries/jurisdictions.
We’re half way there, with four approvals now squared away, leaving Australia, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand still to give the go ahead.
Irrevocables comprising 34.26% of the register (and 57.01% of disinterested shares) are now in the bag. This is a done deal. It’s just a question of timing.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (11-Mar-2025): Singapore buying Sydney office for $70M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Cambridge, a Singapore-based firm, purchases a Sydney office block for $70M from a former Tysan boss, expanding its real estate portfolio
Hong Kong Land reports a significant increase in losses, totaling $1.4B, attributed to challenges within its Central Portfolio
M&G Real Estate invests $62M in student housing in Melbourne, Australia, highlighting their focus on the Australian real estate market. Warburg Pincus forms a partnership with SK Group to develop Korean senior living facilities, tapping into the growing demand for elderly care in South Korea.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Acceptable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.
In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion’s performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.
Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion’s potential strategic transformation and the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.

RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand

Key 4Q24 takeaways include: 1) real-time step ups in trade-in activity and consumer demand for high-quality preowned products on the heels of recently introduced government subsidies and ongoing growth in the supply of new smartphone shipments continue to drive accelerating revenue growth 2) in response to building demand trends, management plans to continue to expand the company’s footprint (800 new store openings planned for this year), branding initiatives via new social media content/channels, and fulfillment capabilities and 3) while we assume adjusted operating income margins hold steady this year, our model calls for material margin expansion looking out to 2026, as revenue growth momentum continues to build and expense inflation moderates.

QuantaSing Group Limited: EPS Beat on Higher Revenues/Operating Income

Key F2Q25 takeaways include: 1) senior executives remain focused on continually realigning/improving the online learning course catalog, and increasingly leveraging QSG’s existing online platform and customer base
2) steady cash flows from the legacy online learning services platform continue to fund the strategic transition, with a focus on higher-quality products/services geared toward the silver demographic
3) management continues to launch new health/wellness related products and services aimed at the silver demographic, while exploring opportunities across the consumer sector to enhance growth

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Adani Energy Solutions
In the US, treasuries climbed on safe-haven demand and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, amid growing concerns over the US economy. The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 12 bps to 3.89%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.22%. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 81 bps of rate cuts this year, with the first decrease expected in June.
Equities sank on rising economic uncertainty, given rising trade tensions and after US President Donald Trump’s comments that the economy is facing a “period of transition” this year. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% to 5,615, while the Nasdaq slid 4.0% to 17,468.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief United States: Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Intel Corp, Gold, Palladyne AI, ATRenew , AvePoint , Ensysce Biosciences , ContextLogic , Tejon Ranch and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/10] Henry Hub Rallies on Colder Weather and Record LNG Exports
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/10] WTI Extends Decline Amid Weak Demand and Trade Uncertainty
The Intel Drama Goes On. No Buyer It Seems, Who Would? More Wafers Made at TSMC for Longer.
Gold’s Record Rally Meets Resistance: Will USD 3,000 Be the Breaking Point?
PDYN: Palladyne AI Leading in AI Software for Drones and Smart Machines
RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand
AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing – Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics
ENSC: NDA Submission in Sight
ContextLogic (LOGC)
TRC: Potential Upcoming Catalysts Include Opening of First Terra Vista Units

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/10] Henry Hub Rallies on Colder Weather and Record LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 07/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices surged by 14.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and supply constraints.
Henry Hub posted its biggest weekly gain since January, hitting a 26-month high during the week ending 07/Mar. Prices closed above the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Henry Hub OI PCR was 1.00 on 07/Mar, unchanged from 28/Feb. Call OI rose by 8.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 8.6%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/10] WTI Extends Decline Amid Weak Demand and Trade Uncertainty

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures fell by 3.9% for the week ending 07/Mar, marking its seventh consecutive weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade tensions, rising U.S. crude inventories, and demand concerns.
The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592, ending a five-week gain streak, with oil rigs unchanged at 486 and gas rigs down by one to 101.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.91 on 07/Mar from 0.98 on 28/Feb. Call OI increased by 13.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 5.3%.

The Intel Drama Goes On. No Buyer It Seems, Who Would? More Wafers Made at TSMC for Longer.

By Nicolas Baratte

Following Broadcom CEO saying “no” and TSMC investing another US$100bn in Arizona, speculations of an Intel takeover have subsided.
On the increase, rumors of further Intel 18A delays and production push out. This means more outsourcing to TSMC for longer as mentioned by Intel’s IR last week.
Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks, but AMD and TSMC will benefit.

Gold’s Record Rally Meets Resistance: Will USD 3,000 Be the Breaking Point?

By Pranay Yadav

Geopolitical risk and central bank purchases continue to support gold demand, but rising Treasury yields present headwinds. Physical imports to the U.S. are plateauing, easing supply constraints.
Gold prices are facing resistance at USD 3,000/oz, with technical indicators suggesting potential consolidation before further upside. Historical patterns indicate similar conditions led to stagnant prices.
Gold leasing rates have normalized, signaling reduced supply stress. Previous spikes above 5% indicated a temporary supply shock, but the recent decline suggests a more balanced market.

PDYN: Palladyne AI Leading in AI Software for Drones and Smart Machines

By Water Tower Research

Palladyne AI sells real-time learning and reasoning AI software platforms for robots, drones, and smart industrial systems.
The company engages in the design, development, and manufacturing of industrial robotic systems that augment human performance by combining human intelligence, instinct, and judgment with the strength, endurance, and precision of machines to enhance employee safety and productivity.
Its mobile robotic systems include the Guardian S, Guardian GT, Guardian XO, and Guardian XT. Palladyne AI was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand

Key 4Q24 takeaways include: 1) real-time step ups in trade-in activity and consumer demand for high-quality preowned products on the heels of recently introduced government subsidies and ongoing growth in the supply of new smartphone shipments continue to drive accelerating revenue growth 2) in response to building demand trends, management plans to continue to expand the company’s footprint (800 new store openings planned for this year), branding initiatives via new social media content/channels, and fulfillment capabilities and 3) while we assume adjusted operating income margins hold steady this year, our model calls for material margin expansion looking out to 2026, as revenue growth momentum continues to build and expense inflation moderates.

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing – Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

By Sumeet Singh

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

ENSC: NDA Submission in Sight

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

Ensysce Biosciences is committed to finding a solution to the opioid crisis plaguing the US and other developed countries around the world.
Through its proprietary TAAP technology Ensysce is in the process of receiving approval for an abuse-resistant yet still pain-relieving opioid.
The company announced 4Q2024 results that reflected good cash on hand as well as highlighting the progress for its signature non-opioid pain reliever and its plan for submitting an NDA.

ContextLogic (LOGC)

ContextLogic Inc. (NASDAQ: LOGC) has transformed from an e-commerce operator to a cash-rich shell company possessing substantial tax assets, positioning it as a unique investment opportunity.
The company’s recent strategic partnership with BC Partners has created a significant value proposition for investors, particularly those seeking to navigate current market volatility.
This investment opportunity combines tangible cash assets with substantial tax benefits, all supported by sophisticated financial backing.

TRC: Potential Upcoming Catalysts Include Opening of First Terra Vista Units

The convenience and affordability of Terra Vista housing, as well as proximity to LA, are expected to drive demand from TRCC employees and others.
The development of the nearby Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Tejon is another likely driver of demand for affordable housing from its employees.
Upon completion, Terra Vista at Tejon is expected to be the largest rental community in Kern County.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief India: Indusind Bank, Bank Of Baroda, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd, Shilpa Medicare and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next
IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns
Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well
The Beat Ideas: Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NHL) ~ Driving Growth from India to Cayman Islands
The Beat Ideas: Shilpa Medicare

IndusInd Bank (IIB IN): Stock Crashes on Derivatives Losses; Index Selling Next

The Indusind Bank (IIB IN) stock was down 27% yesterday following the announcement of Derivatives Portfolio losses that have wiped out 2.35% of equity.
Foreign investors were big sellers in the last 3 months of 2024. That led to increased foreign room, leading to an index upweight in February and index inclusion in March.
The drop in market cap and free float market cap will see Indusind Bank (IIB IN) deleted from the S&P BSE SENSEX Index in June and the NIFTY Index in September.

IndusInd Bank: Derivative Discrepancy Surfaces, Raising Governance Concerns

By Nimish Maheshwari

IndusInd Bank recently disclosed a significant accounting discrepancy in its derivatives portfolio, estimated to impact its net worth by INR 1,580 crore (~2.35%).
The issue pertains to internal trades executed over the past 7–8 years, now identified through a detailed internal review initiated following regulatory changes.
This development, when viewed alongside the abrupt CFO exit, regulatory pushback on CEO tenure, and existing operational challenges, raises concerns around internal controls, risk governance, and management credibility.

Bank of Baroda QIP Early Look – Well Flagged but Last Deal Did Not Do Well

By Akshat Shah

Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) is looking to raise about INR 85bn (US$980m) in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Feb 13, 2025, BOB mentioned its board’s approval to raise upto INR85bn via various modes including a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 1.2%.
The deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 39 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did not do well.

The Beat Ideas: Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NHL) ~ Driving Growth from India to Cayman Islands

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN) is a prominent player in the Indian healthcare sector, distinguished by its commitment to providing affordable, high-quality medical services.
The company established its first international hospital in the Cayman Islands in 2014, targeting patients from the Americas and Caribbean regions by offering competitively priced medical services
Management has outlined a capex guidance of around INR 4,000 crores over the next 3 to 4 years, funded by healthy cash flows and stable operating margins.

The Beat Ideas: Shilpa Medicare

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Shilpa Medicare (SLPA IN) will begin commercializing new molecules across segments, driving growth to new heights as older products are phased out, ensuring sustained progress and innovation in its business.
In recent years, the company has experienced growth stagnation and declining profitability due to US FDA issues affecting both the company and its key client in the API segment.
The company’s pipeline of new molecules offers significant growth potential, with a single successful molecule poised to elevate the company to unprecedented levels over the next five years.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings, JX Advanced Metals, Baudroie, Tokyo Metro, Japan Steel Works, GiG Works, Nippon Shinyaku, Shimojima and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry
Baudroie (4413 JP) – Fast Growth, Prime Promotion, and TOPIX Inclusion
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2025)
Japan Steel Works (5631) | Artillery Giant Reloads for Growth
GiG Works (2375 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update
Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Strong 9MFY25 Numbers; FY25 Guidance Raised; Regular Launches Remain Key
Shimojima (7482 JP) – OPM Rebounded from Q2 3.4% → Q3 8.6% on Price Hikes

7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds

On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly.
Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

Baudroie (4413 JP) – Fast Growth, Prime Promotion, and TOPIX Inclusion

In late November of 2024, Baudroie (4413 JP) announced it would try to move to TSE Prime and that day they announced a 2.76mm share secondary offering and a buyback.
The buyback was a bit less than a quarter of the offering. Fast forward 3mos and in early March the company announced it would move to Prime. Yesterday it did.
That puts the company in line for a TOPIX inclusion in end-April , and likely other index effects later. In the meantime, earnings and guidance are out ~10 April.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Recently, IT-solutions company Baudroie (4413 JP) announced a move to the Prime Market. This would result in a TOPIX Inclusion event for the stock at the end of April 2025.
Separately, the TOPIX Liquidity factor removal event will take place in April 2025 and there could be some positive index flows for Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) during this event.

Japan Steel Works (5631) | Artillery Giant Reloads for Growth

By Mark Chadwick

Defense Windfall: JSW dominates Japan’s artillery market, set to benefit as defense spending triples, driving a 232% surge in defense sales to 80 billion yen by 2028.
Strategic Expansion: Exclusive forging capabilities secure JSW’s artillery monopoly, while investments in railguns and next-gen armoured vehicles fuel long-term growth.
Energy Tailwinds: JSW’s nuclear and offshore wind expertise ensures stable revenue, with reactor restarts and turbine foundations boosting its power segment’s profitability.

GiG Works (2375 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update

By Shared Research

GiG Works reported a revenue of JPY5.9bn, an 8.6% YoY decline, with all profit categories turning to losses.
The On-demand Economy business, accounting for 42% of Q1 revenue, saw a YoY decline in revenue and profit.
The Sharing Economy business achieved YoY revenue and profit growth, with a 10.8% revenue increase to JPY1.2bn.

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Strong 9MFY25 Numbers; FY25 Guidance Raised; Regular Launches Remain Key

By Tina Banerjee

During 9MFY25, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) reported revenue growth of 8% YoY to ¥121B, while operating profit stood at ¥33B, up 8% YoY.
Viltepso witnessed growth both in Japan and the U.S. and licensing income also increased on higher overseas sales of Uptravi.
Guidance for FY25 have been raised with sales now expected to be ¥160B, up 8% YoY.

Shimojima (7482 JP) – OPM Rebounded from Q2 3.4% → Q3 8.6% on Price Hikes

By Sessa Investment Research

While 1H profits struggled under pressure on COS from the weak yen, price hikes for roughly 80% of products were implemented from September, a portion from October, so Q4 will see a full 3-month contribution.
Note also success in controlling SG&A from Q3. Sapporo-based Ohkura Sangyo will be consolidated from Q1 FY26/3 with the acquisition completed in Jan-2025.
In this report, we look at three TOPICS. The first is an update on CY2024 booming inbound demand, which is continuing coming into 2025.

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Mar 12

Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Austal Ltd, Japan Steel Works, GiG Works, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2025)
Austal (ASB AU)’s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A
Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation
Japan Steel Works (5631) | Artillery Giant Reloads for Growth
GiG Works (2375 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi – Actinver Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Recently, IT-solutions company Baudroie (4413 JP) announced a move to the Prime Market. This would result in a TOPIX Inclusion event for the stock at the end of April 2025.
Separately, the TOPIX Liquidity factor removal event will take place in April 2025 and there could be some positive index flows for Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) during this event.

Austal (ASB AU)’s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A