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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 22
0

Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Indusind Bank, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr), New World Development, Royal Bank of Canada, Seneca Financial, Beneficient and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect
  • Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Jan-2025): Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar for $400M.
  • How JPMorgan’s Massive Investments Are Reshaping the Future of Banking! – Major Drivers
  • Citigroup’s Turnaround Playbook: Core Drivers Shaping Future Performance! – Major Drivers
  • Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group’s Ruthless Expense Overhaul
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Capital Markets Pipeline & Growth Trends Fueling Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • BR Review: The Seneca IHT Service
  • BENF: Public Stockholder Enhancement Transactions Set Valuation Floor for the Stock

Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect

By Sanghyun Park

  • We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
  • Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
  • Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
  • There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Jan-2025): Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar for $400M.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar Hotel for $400M in a strategic move to shift focus and secure a profitable deal.
  • CapitaLand shifts Tan to commercial REIT and hires Yong to lead Malaysia Trust, showing active leadership changes within the company.
  • CapitaLand India Trust initiates $54M Hyderabad IT Park revamp, signaling a significant investment in the Indian real estate market.

How JPMorgan’s Massive Investments Are Reshaping the Future of Banking! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest financial results reveal a robust performance for the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The firm reported net income of $14 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.81 on revenue of $43.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue increase of 10%.
  • The return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was a solid 21%.

Citigroup’s Turnaround Playbook: Core Drivers Shaping Future Performance! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Citigroup has released its fourth quarter earnings for 2024, showcasing a notable rise in net income by almost 40% to $12.7 billion for the full year, indicating positive momentum across key business segments.
  • This performance was coupled with a revenue increase of 5% excluding divestitures, supported by a 17% uptick in fee revenue, and an efficiency ratio improvement by 340 basis points, which highlights the company’s operational improvements.
  • However, certain macroeconomic challenges remain persistent, such as China’s slower-than-anticipated growth and Europe’s underperformance.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group’s Ruthless Expense Overhaul

By Baptista Research

  • Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) presented a mixed set of results for the fiscal year ended in March 2017, with several positives but also notable challenges.
  • The company’s profit attributable to owners of the parent came in at JPY 706.5 billion, an increase of JPY 59.8 billion from the previous year, partly due to the tax effects associated with adopting a consolidated corporate tax system.
  • This tax benefit, however, will not recur, impacting future profitability metrics.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, China Vanke, Vedanta Resources
  • The US market was closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday yesterday.
  • In China, the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (quoted by commercial banks) have been maintained at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Capital Markets Pipeline & Growth Trends Fueling Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) demonstrated robust performance in its 2024 fourth-quarter results, revealing both strengths and potential challenges in its operational and financial outcomes.
  • The bank’s reported earnings stood at $4.2 billion, which includes $265 million from its acquisition of HSBC Canada.
  • Adjusted earnings showed an 18% year-over-year increase to $4.4 billion, driven largely by market appreciation and strong client activities.

BR Review: The Seneca IHT Service

By Hardman & Co

  • The Seneca IHT Service is a non-AIM/unquoted BR product.
  • It will invest in Seneca Secured Lending Limited and/or Seneca Secured Finance Limited, depending on the desired mix of capital and income returns.
  • Both lend on a secured basis in a variety of areas.

BENF: Public Stockholder Enhancement Transactions Set Valuation Floor for the Stock

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Beneficient (BENF)

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Jan 22
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Mixue Group, Smithfield Foods, Guming Holdings, Fu Shou Yuan, Kimberly-Clark De Mexico-A, Dowlais Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group’s Spin-Off
  • Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted
  • Actinver Research – Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 Preview
  • Dowlais Group Plc (DWL.LN) – Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024

HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
  • In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
  • We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.

Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group’s Spin-Off

By IPO Boutique

  • Spin-Off of WH Group’s could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range
  • The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut
  • Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)

Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports. 
  • Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
  • The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. 

Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK), a leading player in China’s freshly-made branded beverage sector, is widely expected to launch its IPO soon.
  • Guming’s Good Me brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of store count as well as GMV.
  • Guming reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings, although same-store sales declined due to rising competition and weak consumer spending.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Investment Strategy May Need to Be Adjusted

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fu Shou Yuan’s performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.
  • If Fu Shou Yuan’s dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don’t think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.
  • Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.

Actinver Research – Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q24 Preview

By Actinver

  • Amid a more cautious view on FX we are lowering our estimates ahead of results.
  • With c.60% of its raw materials dollarized —and fairly minimal sales exposure to the same currency—, Kimberly-Clark de México is in our view one of the most impacted companies amid recent FX turmoil.
  • We thus lower our 4Q24 estimates onwards at the margin level, while slightly lowering our sales estimates.

Dowlais Group Plc (DWL.LN) – Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dowlais Group Plc. has experienced a sharp decrease in share price in the past 18 months
  • Current management is making improvements and conducting a strategic review of their powder metallurgy business
  • Shareholders have the potential to see returns of 100-200% in the near future, making it an attractive investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: If the NIFTY Relief Rally Takes Off and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • If the NIFTY Relief Rally Takes Off, Check These Profit Targets

If the NIFTY Relief Rally Takes Off, Check These Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may be at the start of a rally that may be a relief rally, or it may turn into something longer-term, later.
  • We focus on the short-term, WEEKLY forecast (1 to 4 weeks usually), the NIFTY is at the end of a correction that we had anticipated in a previous insight.
  • Now we want to see how far this rally can go during the next few weeks, spoiler: NOT FAR! There could be another pullback, after this rally.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief ESG: Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager

Keppel Ltd: Part V – Transforming into a Global Asset Manager

By Tan Yee Peng

  • Keppel’s Vision 2030, announced in May 2020, envisages that it would become a global asset manager and operator, with Funds Under Management (“FUM”) of S$200bn.
  • In this report we are focusing on Keppel’s private funds, which account for 70% of its current FUM.
  • Based on Keppel’s publicly released materials, Keppel’s strategy to reach their goal is separated into 3 key components.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | A New Golden Age? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | A New Golden Age?
  • Singapore Market Roundup (20-Jan-2025): Maybank: S-REIT distributions stable by 2H2025, grow FY2026+
  • China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)
  • Gold to Shine Bright on Solid Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments
  • Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets
  • Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up
  • #89 India Insight: PepsiCo-Tata Launch, Nykaa Fuels M&As, India Targets $1T Exports
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote’s Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China

Ohayo Japan | A New Golden Age?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Donald Trump was inaugurated as U.S. president on Monday, declaring “America’s decline is over.”
  • Markets responded as Trump delayed tariffs on key trading partners, boosting global equities and weakening the dollar
  • Mitsubishi Chemical Group has offered Bain Capital first-refusal rights to acquire its pharmaceutical subsidiary Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma in a deal potentially exceeding ¥500bn

Singapore Market Roundup (20-Jan-2025): Maybank: S-REIT distributions stable by 2H2025, grow FY2026+

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Maybank forecasts stable S-REIT distributions in the second half of 2025 with growth expected in fiscal year 2026.
  • CGSI remains optimistic on Singtel and KDC despite US artificial intelligence restrictions.
  • UOBKH anticipates higher dividends from DBS and OCBC in the future. Maybank takes a ‘neutral’ stance on the Singapore healthcare sector.

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

By Robert Ciemniak

  • The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
  • What lies beneath – a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
  • In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday

Gold to Shine Bright on Solid Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments

By Amrutha Raj

  • CME Gold Futures delivered remarkable returns, climbing 13.5% in 2023 and soaring to a record 27% gain in 2024.
  • Gold serves as a hedge against trust deficits, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising fiscal deficits, and fears of inflation and currency depreciation, making it a reliable refuge during economic uncertainty. 
  • The GLD ETF saw strong inflows in 2025, adding USD 579.22 million to its AUM, reaching USD 76.74 billion, despite some brief outflows post-election.

Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Post-COVID, a popular narrative suggests that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) now wield greater influence in the Indian equity markets. 
  • While factual to an extent, this narrative misinterprets the broader reality. 
  • As a current account-deficit country, India relies heavily on foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustain its risk appetite.

Japanese Consumers Update: Price Pressure Reducing Spending but Bonuses Up

By Michael Causton

  • What is the current consumer environment for brands and retailers? Households are increasingly worried about inflation and have already begun to cut back on spending significantly. 
  • With further international turmoil, inflation caused by a weak Yen and high import costs, depressed sentiment may not be going away soon.
  • One counter to this is bonuses which rose in December. Many companies say they need to pay more to keep staff from taking jobs elsewhere as the labour shortage worsens.

#89 India Insight: PepsiCo-Tata Launch, Nykaa Fuels M&As, India Targets $1T Exports

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Pepsico Inc (PEP US)  and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)  have partnered to launch a fusion snack, combining Kurkure with Ching’s Secret Schezwan Chutney.
  • India aims for $1 trillion in exports by 2030, with $250 billion from the engineering sector, including automobiles and equipment. Infrastructure, energy transition, and innovation are key growth drivers.
  • India’s beauty and personal care industry is heading into a consolidation phase, with M&As on the rise. Nykaa’s successful buyouts and challenges faced by D2C brands are fueling this trend.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 3/52]: RedNote’s Popularity Can Lift Other Boats Outside China

By Ying Pan

  • This week, JD.com launched its social gift feature more tightly integrated with Weixin than Alibaba. We believe Tencent’s social gift feature will mainly serve as an advertising layer within e-commerce;
  • Consumption data is so so and heavily reliant on subsidies. More service-subsidies are needed from the government; 
  • Outbound travel likely to cede to domestic during this CNY, benefiting local hotel chains like Atour.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief ECM: Eco-Shop Marketing Pre-IPO: Malaysia’s Leading Dollar-Store and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Eco-Shop Marketing Pre-IPO: Malaysia’s Leading Dollar-Store

Eco-Shop Marketing Pre-IPO: Malaysia’s Leading Dollar-Store

By Nicholas Tan

  • Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY)  is looking to raise about US$226m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
  • ES is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates. The firm operates an extensive network of stores across Malaysia.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
  • In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
  • Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
  • SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
  • Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
  • A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
  • KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
  • Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
  • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer
  • Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

By Brian Freitas

SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
  • SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
  • The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

  • Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
  • Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air

By Douglas Kim

  • An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
  • Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
  • From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
  • Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
  • Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.

By John Ley

  • Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
  • Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels. 
  • Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron

By Douglas Kim

  • Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS) announced its plan to split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron (a newly established company).
  • Existing shareholders will receive shares of the two companies in equal proportions according to the split ratio which is 32.5% for Hana Semiconductor Holdings and 67.5% for Hana Micron.
  • We remain negative on Hana Micron. The valuation of the company remains stretched. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the company’s new plan to split into two different companies.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) disclosed a conditional takeover offer from City Developments (CIT SP) at NZ$2.25, a 25.0% premium to the undisturbed price of NZ$1.80 (17 January).
  • The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition, which will be an issue as the offer is materially below NTA on a historical cost and market-value-based approach.
  • CDL has three options to address shareholder resistance: lower the minimum acceptance threshold, increase the offer price, or continue extending the close. 

Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) is expected to migrate from Small-cap to Standard at the February 2025 review as its price has soared ~100% since the last review.
  • The security’s free float is forecasted to increase from 25% to 70% at the May 2025 review due to lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders. Passive fund demand expected is ~$570m.
  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) can migrate from small-cap to all-world in September 2025 with a slight price increase. Probability of migration in March 2025 is small.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level
  • Yatharth Hospital: Decoding Disclosure Lapses & Red Flags
  • Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Expansion Plans In Brazil Looks Prospective, Yet Gets Tricky With Margins
  • KTC – Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures
  • HSBC Holdings
  • Sonos’ $500 Million Crisis: Why The CEO Had To Go!
  • Gaming Consoles Part 3: Nintendo – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]
  • Japan System Techniques (4323 JP ) – Valuations Continue to Expand…
  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children

China TCM (570.HK) – About the Profit Warning and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. 
  • China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.
  • Instead of betting on privatization again, it’s better to focus more on whether China TCM’s fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
  • UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
  • ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level

Yatharth Hospital: Decoding Disclosure Lapses & Red Flags

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services (YATHARTH IN) successfully completed a QIP, raising Rs. 625 crore which was followed by the stock falling by nearly 26% in the following month.
  • The company and its subsidiaries has recently been facing a significant challenge with an investigation by the Income Tax Department and the attachment of company assets.
  • The document released on December 17, 2024 has confirmed the search and seizure operations conducted on October 19, 2023, targeting Yatharth and two of its subsidiaries.

Sysmex Corp (6869 JP): Expansion Plans In Brazil Looks Prospective, Yet Gets Tricky With Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sysmex America, Inc., a subsidiary of Sysmex Corp, recently announced plans to build a new reagent manufacturing, distribution, and service center in Brazil.
  • In FY24, sales in the Americas region for Sysmex increased 12% YoY to ¥118.7B. Reagents drove the revenue growing 16%.
  • Operating margins in the Americas have largely trodden on a volatile trajectory over the last few years hovering in the range of 4-6%, lowest among all the geographies.

KTC – Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

By Daniel Tabbush

  • KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
  • With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
  • ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24

HSBC Holdings

By Baptista Research

  • HSBC Holdings plc reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of its ongoing strategic initiatives.
  • Key points from the earnings call highlight the firm’s continued growth, strategic restructuring, and some external influences, creating a nuanced outlook for potential investors.
  • On the financial front, HSBC posted a profit before tax of $8.5 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period last year, on a constant currency basis.

Sonos’ $500 Million Crisis: Why The CEO Had To Go!

By Baptista Research

  • Sonos, a renowned name in the premium audio industry, has recently faced one of its most challenging years.
  • The company, known for its seamless blend of hardware and software, suffered a significant setback due to a disastrous app update that disrupted the user experience for millions.
  • Released in May 2024, the redesigned app, meant to accelerate innovation, instead turned functional speakers into non-operational devices.

Gaming Consoles Part 3: Nintendo – [Business Breakdowns, EP.203]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Finley translates unstructured credit agreements into code to streamline credit management processes
  • Borrowers like RAMP and ANOVA rely on Finley for tracking and automation of reporting requirements
  • Lenders like Trinity Capital Valley bank use Finley as a command center for debt capital data and analysis across transactions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan System Techniques (4323 JP ) – Valuations Continue to Expand…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its H1 Key consolidated figures net sales of JPY 13,260 mn (+9.3% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,045 mn (+4.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,077 mn (+6.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners o  parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 671 mn (+3.2% YoY).
  • Higher sales and profits in the DX&SI business and Package business contributed in H1 earnings growth.
  • For FY2025/3, the Company forecasts: net sales of JPY 28,570 mn (+9.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,150 mn (+12.9% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,200 mn (+11.8% YoY), and net profit of JPY 2,300 mn (+10.2%).

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Bringing Milk to the Children

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia’s leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
  • The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.
  • Ultrajaya‘s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
  • Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting inauguration
  • The Trump Transition Trade: Q1 2025 AI-Designed Tactical Alpha Capture ETF Portfolio
  • Global Commodities: A Bitter Cold US Natural Gas Market Ramps up LNG Supply
  • Hawkish Fed Policy Outlook Brings External Consequences
  • Korea – Move to Underweight
  • Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]
  • Global Rates – 2025 Global government issuance outlook
  • Rebuilding The US Physical Economy
  • The Investmentcase for Gold

Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
  • It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
  • To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting inauguration

By At Any Rate

  • Discussion on potential tariffs and their impact on global markets, with a focus on Canada, China, and Mexico
  • Analysis of the upcoming BOJ meeting and its potential impact on the Japanese yen
  • Update on UK’s economic challenges, including concerns about fiscal math and potential trade war implications

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Trump Transition Trade: Q1 2025 AI-Designed Tactical Alpha Capture ETF Portfolio

By William Mann

  • A Q1 2025 tactical ETF Portfolio, on four themes: Technology & AI Leadership (30% exposure), Cryptocurrency Ecosystem (15% exposure), Quality Factor (35% exposure), and Strategic Regional Opportunities (12% net exposure).
  • Investment approach includes sophisticated risk management framework with position-level controls, crypto-specific risk management, stop-loss strategy, and a three-phase implementation process designed to balance risk and capitalize on emerging market trends.
  • Targets 130% Gross, net long exposure of 45%, information ratio above 0.85, 12% maximum drawdown, seeks risk-adjusted return of +15%, ETF positions in AI, Crypto, Cash Flow, and regional hedges.

Global Commodities: A Bitter Cold US Natural Gas Market Ramps up LNG Supply

By At Any Rate

  • US natural gas market experiencing significant weather-related demand in January, with colder than 10-year normal temperatures
  • Europe facing tight gas market balances and lower storage levels, requiring increased LNG imports to reach storage targets
  • Uncertainty around Russian pipeline gas increases to Europe and potential impact of US sanctions on Russian energy sectors present bearish risk factors for gas prices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Hawkish Fed Policy Outlook Brings External Consequences

By Said Desaque

  • Respectable labour market data and strong service sector activity have forced US Treasury investors to soberly revise their expectations of Fed policy rate reductions in 2025 to one cut. 
  • Recoveries in corporate sector sentiment since the presidential election suggest a robust economic growth outlook, making it tough to justify meaningful Fed policy easing.
  • Strong capital inflows will boost the dollar exchange rate. Deflation risks in China have risen, raising the attraction of weakening the yuan and risking the ire of the Trump administration.

Korea – Move to Underweight

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Underweight Korean equities and the won, not because of the political crisis but because of what business cycle indicators are signalling. 
  • The Korean corporate profit cycle is deteriorating, capex slowing, inventories rising and exports to key markets weakening which does not bode well for earnings growth.
  • A recession is not forecast though. Mortgage borrowing is strengthening, inflation easing and we expect another 75bps of policy rate cuts in 2025.

Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]

By Web3 Breakdowns

  • 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
  • The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
  • The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates – 2025 Global government issuance outlook

By At Any Rate

  • Global government issuance trends are bearish, with widening deficits and increasing net issuance in major economies
  • Euro area, UK, and US are all facing significant supply pressures, leading to concerns about term premium and yield curve steepening
  • Japan is expected to see a slowdown in net issuance, but QT policies will still impact the JGB curve, potentially leading to a flattening bias in 2025.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Rebuilding The US Physical Economy

By The Bid

  • The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
  • There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
  • Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Investmentcase for Gold

By The Commodity Report

  • The Investmentcase for Gold Some time has passed since I wrote the last time about gold.
  • Currently, a situation is developing that could become interesting for investors in the shiny metal.
  • While till this day many market experts have the opinion that the gold price is highly correlated to the US-Dollar as well as the relative trajectory of where yields are headed, I think that gold is primarily driven by liquidity conditions.

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