Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event worth a combined US$600mm+ one-way.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Reference Period Almost Complete; New Pair Trade Ideas

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK

By Jacob Cheng

The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman. Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
With H1 tracking >50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.

Muyuan Foods A/H Listing – Long Term Growth with Short-Term Volatility

By Sumeet Singh

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH), a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Japan: GMO Internet, Shibaura Electronics, Nikkei 225, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Money Forward , Toumei , EJ Holdings Inc, Sumitomo Corp, Vector Inc, J Com Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality
Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

By David Blennerhassett

GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

By Arun George

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
The index’s latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model’s Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off

By Mark Chadwick

Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.

Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update

Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.

EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

In FY05/25, E-J Holdings reported revenue of JPY42.7bn, operating profit of JPY4.5bn, and net income of JPY3.2bn.
For FY05/26, E-J Holdings forecasts revenue of JPY47.0bn, operating profit of JPY5.0bn, and net income of JPY3.4bn.
E-J Holdings formulated E-J-Vision2030 and E-J-Plan2027 to enhance business foundation and corporate value.

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.
Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.
Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update

Revenue for Q1 FY02/26 was JPY14.8bn, a 6.7% YoY increase, with operating profit rising 22.9% YoY.
PR and Advertising revenue declined 5.0% YoY, while Press Release Distribution saw a 19.7% YoY revenue increase.
Direct Marketing revenue grew 36.7% YoY, but recorded an operating loss of JPY224mn due to increased ad spending.

J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 3.1% YoY to JPY62.3bn, while operating profit decreased by 11.5% YoY to JPY3.0bn.
Child-Rearing Support Service revenue rose 8.6% YoY to JPY33.0bn, but operating profit fell 11.3% YoY.
Comprehensive Human Resources Service revenue declined 5.6% YoY to JPY20.6bn, yet operating profit increased by 1.0% YoY.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Industrials: SM Investments, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Sumitomo Corp, Smiths, EJ Holdings Inc, Tomra Systems, Wilh Wilhelmsen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest
Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality
Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update
EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
TOMRA Systems: Initiation of Coverage- Is The Growth In The Recycling Here To Stay?
Wallenius Wilhelmsen – Can Tariff Turbulence Derail This Shipping Giant?

SM Investments Placement: Large Deal to Digest

By Nicholas Tan

An undisclosed seller is looking to raise US$142m via selling some/all of their stake in SM Investments (SM PM).
The deal is a large one to digest, representing 33.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 0.7% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.
Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.
Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q2 Update

By Upslope Capital Management

Q2 saw markets whipsawed in an unprecedentedly deliberate fashion. Markets got slammed when aggressive tariffs were announced.
They quickly rebounded when relief extensions were granted and “deals” announced. Then they rebounded some more.
Where does that leave us? No one believes harsh tariffs will be widely implemented. This (lack of tariffs) is a good thing, and it is well reflected in markets and valuations. But markets are now extremely frothy.

EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

In FY05/25, E-J Holdings reported revenue of JPY42.7bn, operating profit of JPY4.5bn, and net income of JPY3.2bn.
For FY05/26, E-J Holdings forecasts revenue of JPY47.0bn, operating profit of JPY5.0bn, and net income of JPY3.4bn.
E-J Holdings formulated E-J-Vision2030 and E-J-Plan2027 to enhance business foundation and corporate value.

TOMRA Systems: Initiation of Coverage- Is The Growth In The Recycling Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

Tomra Systems ASA has reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showing a performance that aligns closely with expectations both in revenue and profit terms.
The company, which operates mainly in the Collection, Recycling, and Food sectors, delivered a total revenue of EUR 306 million for the quarter, a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
The Food sector was particularly strong, benefiting from a successful turnaround that led to record EBITA and double-digit growth in both revenues and order intake.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen – Can Tariff Turbulence Derail This Shipping Giant?

By Baptista Research

Wallenius Wilhelmsen has reported solid performance for the first quarter of 2023, despite facing significant market uncertainties primarily driven by U.S. tariffs and changing regulatory environments.
The company posted a robust adjusted EBITDA of $462 million, up 5% from the same quarter last year, indicating stable performance in its core segments.
A notable event during the quarter was the completion of the MIRRAT transaction, marking Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s withdrawal from operations in Australia, with the proceeds already accounted for.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Utilities: Adani Green Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Yanlord Land, China Vanke
The UST curve bear-steepened marginally yesterday, in line with a steepening in the JGB curve and amid an absence of macro news. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.90%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.44%.
Equities shrugged off earlier losses to end the day marginally higher, after US President Donald Trump told reporters there could be trade talks, including with Europe. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,269, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3% at 20,640. The market focus today is on the US CPI for June.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Ansys Inc, Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronic, Shibaura Electronics, Qi An Xin Technology Group , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, StarHub Ltd, Money Forward , Netmarble , NVIDIA Corp, SK Telecom and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: One Change to Expectations; US$636mn Total One-Way
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Reference Period Almost Complete; New Pair Trade Ideas
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount
Starhub Ltd: An Analysis of the Returns to Shareholders and Governance
Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE
Jensen Went to the White House, and to China
Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

Synopsys’ $35 Billion Acquisition of Ansys Closing: Major Index Changes Triggered

By Harry Kalfas

The merger between Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US) marks a major industry milestone, having overcome extended regulatory hurdles, including a delayed approval from Chinese authorities.
Ansys Inc (ANSS US) shareholders will receive $197 cash plus 0.3450 Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) shares per Ansys Inc (ANSS US) share, valuing the deal at about $35 billion.
The merger is expected to significantly impact major U.S. indexes, triggering intra-quarter replacements and substantial passive fund flows.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: One Change to Expectations; US$636mn Total One-Way

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 3 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event worth a combined US$600mm+ one-way.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion

By Arun George

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Reference Period Almost Complete; New Pair Trade Ideas

STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread

Starhub Ltd: An Analysis of the Returns to Shareholders and Governance

By Tan Yee Peng

We commend StarHub for putting shareholder returns as a key priority; it is front and centre in its annual reports, and a significant portion of the CEO’s compensation is tied to returns targets.
This is certainly not common among SGX listed companies, many of which do not even have Return on Equity (“ROE”) targets.
In fact, less than 20% of SGX companies have 5-year average ROE of more than 10%, which is approximately the cost of equity for most companies.

Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off

By Mark Chadwick

Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.

Netmarble Is Considering on Issuing EB Worth 250 Billion Won Backed by Its Stake in HYBE

By Douglas Kim

According to the local media, Netmarble is considering on issuing exchangeable bonds (EB) worth about 250 billion won backed by its stake in HYBE.
The potential EB issue is likely to be slightly positive on Netmarble and slightly negative on HYBE (mainly due to additional shares that could be sold in the market).
We are Negative on BOTH Netmarble and HYBE. Their valuations are not attractive. Plus, HYBE could face a major negative issue of its founder Bang Si-hyuk who could be jailed.

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

By Nicolas Baratte

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%). Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).

Div Tax Intel Drop: Street Pivoting to Forward Yield Plays (Consensus Data Excel Attached)

By Sanghyun Park

This is MoEF’s first gov-led tax reform—not lawmaker-initiated—and unlike April’s DP bill, it carries broader scope and priority fast-track status, boosting passage odds.
Local chatter says MoEF is eyeing end-July to table its tax reform bill — that’s the base case making the rounds on the tape today.
Gov may go full-scope: 9–25% div tax on all firms plus tax credits. Traders are now rotating into high forward-yield names ahead of MoEF’s late-July package.

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Jul 16

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Amman Mineral Internasional, New World Resources, Adriatic Metals PLC, China Molybdenum Co Ltd H, Copper, Schlumberger Ltd, Halliburton Co, Base Oil, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way
New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer
CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside
Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade
[Earnings Preview] SLB’s Q2 Results to Disappoint as Growth Engines Stall
[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Set to Slip on Q2 Disappointments as Drilling Slows
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July
Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal – $2.8bn One Way

By Travis Lundy

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index.
That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.

New World Resources (NWC AU): Expect CAML To Match Kinterra’s Terms

By David Blennerhassett

Writing reports on copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU) is tricky as they have a half-life of days, sometimes hours, as Kinterra and Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) compete head-to-head.
Last week, Kinterra bumped its off-market Offer to A$0.063/share; which increases to A$0.064/share if it gets to 30%. CAML, currently at A$0.062/share, has matching rights up until the 17th July.
The Takeovers Panel has now, not altogether unsurprisingly, opted not to declare unacceptable circumstances regarding Kinterra’s two applications.

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU): 13th August Vote On Dundee Metals (DPM CN)’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 13th June, dual-listed silver play Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN),with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a
Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie-listed line. And a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
As Adriatic is incorporated in the UK, the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 13th August.

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside