Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Operating revenue increased by 48.8% YoY to JPY965mn, with operating profit rising 109.2% YoY to JPY93mn.
Royalty income from four products and tegoprazan expansion resulted in JPY614mn, with other income at JPY351mn.
RaQualia raised approximately JPY1.0bn through a third-party allotment, issuing 2,592,100 shares to HK inno.N.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Mixed Performance in FY25; Revenue Growth to Decelerate in FY26

By Tina Banerjee

Terumo Corp (4543 JP) has reported FY25 result, with revenue and adjusted operating profit beating and operating and net profits missing guidance. TIS and GBS remained two brightest spots.
FY26 guidance calls for a decelerated revenue growth of just 1% YoY (FY25 revenue growth rate was 12%). Foreign exchange will impact the revenue negatively.
Implementation of the U.S. tariff poses downside risk to guidance, while better-than-expected foreign exchange rate and C&V business growth are the upside risks.

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May 17

Daily Brief Consumer: Tsi Holdings, Oisix ra daichi, Resorttrust Inc, Soybean Active Contract, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, France Bed Holdings, Pia Corp, Lands’ End Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

TSI Holdings: Strong Growth in BPS and Aggressive Record of Share Buybacks
Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Resorttrust Inc (4681 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?
Another Reason Companies Are Reluctant to Disclose in English, and Not Just Because of the Cost
France Bed Holdings (7840 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Pia Corp (4337 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
LE: Snapping the Catalog; New Tricks for Swim & Summer Style; Reiterate Buy, PT

TSI Holdings: Strong Growth in BPS and Aggressive Record of Share Buybacks

By Douglas Kim

Tsi Holdings (3608 JP) is a leading apparel company in Japan. Net cash was 45 billion yen at end of February 2025, representing 58% of its current market cap.
The company has an excellent record of increasing its BPS, reducing outstanding shares, and buying back shares. Valuations have become more attractive.
Its share price has had a nice pullback in the past three months (down 22% from its peak levels in February 2025).

Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

In FY03/25, sales increased by 72.5% YoY, EBITDA by 55.3% YoY, and operating profit by 33.9% YoY.
For FY03/26, the company forecasts sales of JPY270.0bn, EBITDA of JPY14.0bn, and operating profit of JPY8.0bn.
The company targets adjusted EPS of JPY175.0 in FY03/30, with a five-year CAGR of 11%.

Resorttrust Inc (4681 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Sales and operating profit increased YoY; Membership and Medical segments saw higher sales and profits, while Hotel and Restaurant segment had lower profits.
Contract value for hotel memberships increased YoY; sales and operating profit rose due to higher contract value and improved margins.
FY03/26 forecast: sales JPY259.0bn (+3.9% YoY), operating profit JPY27.5bn (+4.3% YoY), net income JPY19.0bn (-5.7% YoY).

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained.
Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.
Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.

Another Reason Companies Are Reluctant to Disclose in English, and Not Just Because of the Cost

By Aki Matsumoto

Even in 93.8% of prime companies that disclose financial results in English, many disclose only summaries and financial statements in English, while few provide qualitative information and notes in English.
The belief that the company doesn’t provide sufficient information to shareholders to control AGM is common to reluctance to disclose documents in English, which are highly demand by overseas investors.
The idea of “not wanting to provide overseas investors with sufficient information,” which has ingrained in many companies, is opposed to movement to “improve the quality of dialogue with investors.”

France Bed Holdings (7840 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue was JPY60.6bn (+2.4% YoY), operating profit JPY4.7bn (+2.4% YoY), net income JPY2.9bn (-6.0% YoY).
Medical Services revenue rose 4.2% YoY, Home Furnishing and Health revenue decreased 1.3% YoY, with GPM at 54.6%.
FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY62.3bn (+2.9% YoY), operating profit JPY4.8bn (+1.1% YoY), net income JPY3.1bn (+3.5% YoY).

Pia Corp (4337 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Small Cap Consumer Research

The company reported a transaction volume of JPY 270.0bn (+10.2% YoY) and revenue of JPY 45.4bn (+14.6% YoY).
For FY03/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY 47.0bn (+3.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY 3.4bn (+29.0% YoY).
The company plans to eliminate COVID-19 cumulative losses and resume dividend payments for the first time since FY03/20.

LE: Snapping the Catalog; New Tricks for Swim & Summer Style; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after reviewing the May catalog.
As we start to enter the “buy now wear now” swim season, Lands’ End has materially ramped overall newness, with new technical advances for the core Tugless line, multiple additions to the Slendersuit offerings and new seamless looks, all of which serve to emphasize the company’s technological leadership and ability to offer multiple choices for different body sizes in the core swimwear offerings.
Further, there remains continued expansion/emphasis on pre and post swim looks, with swim dresses, wraps and cover-ups.

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May 17

Daily Brief Industrials: Technopro Holdings, LG Energy Solution, New Horizon Aircraft, Kyodo Printing, IDEC Corp, IMCD Group NV, Bando Chemical Industries, Mastech Digital , Nomura Micro Science, iPower and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs
LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bond Worth US$1 Billion
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd (HOVR) – Targeting Regional Air Mobility Market, PT at US$2
Kyodo Printing (7914 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
IDEC Corp (6652 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 May (IMCD)
Bando Chemical Industries (5195 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
MHH: Mastech Digital’s New Management Focuses on AI and Cost-Cutting and Reports a Solid Q1
Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
IPower, Inc: 3QFY25 Review; Super Sizes SuperSuite With “Made in USA”

[Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs

By Travis Lundy

Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) is a temp/contract staffing platform which specialises in engineering staff (IT engineers far more than machinery, construction, chemicals). The company has been growing.
Overnight, an article appeared in MergerMarket – a high-dollar M&A-related news service – saying the company was going through a sale process. The company confirmed it was one possibility.
The stock went limit up. This quick writeup looks at the framework of the idea, and possibilities.

LG Chem: To Issue Exchangeable Bond Worth US$1 Billion

By Douglas Kim

On 15 May, LG Chem announced that it plans to issue foreign currency exchangeable bond worth US$1 billion using shares of its subsidiary LG Energy Solution as the underlying asset.
The purpose of this EB issue is to repay the amount of EB issued two years ago.
The exchange price premium was lowered from 130% in 2023 to 110-115% this time, and the maturity has been shortened from 7 years to 3 years.

New Horizon Aircraft Ltd (HOVR) – Targeting Regional Air Mobility Market, PT at US$2

By Garvit Bhandari

New Horizon Aircraft is a Canada-based aviation company specializing in the development of hybrid electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft
HOVR’s flagship aircraft, the Cavorite X7 is likely to be commercially available in the next 24 to 36 months. HOVR has already completed the development of a 50%-scale prototype.
The timeline looks achievable, and the Company has already committed to supplying five Cavorite X7 to Air Chile Ltd by the end of 2028.

Kyodo Printing (7914 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY100.0bn (+3.1% YoY) with operating profit at JPY2.3bn (+47.8% YoY) and net income JPY3.3bn (+121.4% YoY).
Information-related segment saw increased revenue from transportation tickets, IC cards, and digital transformation services, despite promotional material order declines.
Living and Industrial Materials segment focused on packaging solutions, addressing raw material costs, and expanding high-value-added product offerings.

IDEC Corp (6652 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue was JPY67.4bn (-7.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY3.7bn (-41.8% YoY) and net income JPY1.8bn (-59.7% YoY).
FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY68.7bn (+2.0% YoY), operating profit JPY4.8bn (+30.1% YoY), net income JPY3.5bn (+94.0% YoY).
Medium-term plan targets FY03/28 revenue over JPY77.0bn, OPM of at least 13%, and ROIC of 7%+.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 May (IMCD)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • IMCD | acquires TECOM Ingredients in Spain

Bando Chemical Industries (5195 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 revenue reached JPY115.6bn, a 6.8% YoY increase, with Automotive Parts segment revenue growing 9.0% YoY.
Operating profit declined 55.2% YoY to JPY3.5bn due to JPY5.9bn impairment losses, affecting bottom-line profit.
FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY115.0bn, core operating profit JPY8.2bn, operating profit JPY9.5bn, profit attributable JPY6.7bn.

MHH: Mastech Digital’s New Management Focuses on AI and Cost-Cutting and Reports a Solid Q1

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US.
The company trades below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation now that the company has returned to growth.
New management has implemented a new focus on AI and hopes to profit by aiding clients in its implementation.

Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Nomura Micro Science reported FY03/25 orders of JPY94.5bn, revenue of JPY96.4bn, and net income of JPY10.2bn.
Revenue from water treatment systems increased 36.7% YoY, while maintenance and consumables rose 19.9% YoY.
FY03/26 projections include a 24.0% YoY order increase, but a 37.7% YoY revenue decline due to project completions.

IPower, Inc: 3QFY25 Review; Super Sizes SuperSuite With “Made in USA”

By Water Tower Research

IPW reported revenue of $16.6 million in 3QFY25 (quarter ended March 31, 2025), down from $23.3 million in the year- ago period, with the decline primarily due to (1) a cautious consumer demand environment,
(2) market uncertainty leading to slower order flow from retail partners such as Amazon, and
(3) elevated purchasing volumes from IPW’s largest channel partner, Amazon, in the year-ago period, which presented a tough comp.

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May 17

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Oneconnect Financial Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Kuaishou Technology, ASML Holding NV, Cyber Security Cloud Inc, LaKeel, POET Technologies , Klab Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An Firms Offer @ HK$2.068/Share
TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA
Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
LaKeel (4074 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
POET: Revising Forecasts Due to the Buyout of its JV Partner, Capital Raises, and New Facilities
Klab Inc (3656 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An Firms Offer @ HK$2.068/Share

Back on 3rd March, dual-listed OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/digital insurance play, announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
By way of a Scheme, Ping An offered HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price was final.
SAMR has now signed off on the deal and terms are now firmed. M&G is supportive (1.98% of shares out, ~8% of disinterested shares). Perhaps mid-September completion.

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

By Nico Rosti

TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) in June but there will be float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.95% and that leads to a round-trip trade of HK$3.2bn (US$410m). There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The inflows to NetEase (9999 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) and the outflows from Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Bilibili (9626 HK) will add to the flows from other indices.

SPE Part 2: Growth in 2025-26 from AI Segment Only (Logic, HBM, Packaging). Best 2 Stocks: ASML, KLA

By Nicolas Baratte

AMAT mentions “tremendous architecture inflections” in Logic and Memory (GAA, BSPD, HBM), this is true. But reviewed yesterday, how much, how fast versus declining Mature Logic and China declining?
2025 China to decline -25%, RoW to increase +25% on AI. This should continue in 2026. Post China’s elevated capex in 2023-24, the SPE sector is a play on AI.
ASML and KLA are 1) quasi monopoly 2) in segments that outgrow the total market. ASML is cheapish, KAL at average valuations. Best 2 stocks: ASML, KLA

Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Revenue increased to JPY1.2bn (+24.4% YoY), driven by growth in WafCharm and CloudFastener, with ARR at JPY4.5bn (+30.9% YoY).
Operating profit declined to JPY241mn (-23.6% YoY) due to increased operating expenses, including personnel and outsourcing costs.
Shadankun’s ARR reached JPY1.7bn (+6.1% YoY) with a user count of 1,322 companies and a churn rate of 1.06%.

LaKeel (4074 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Revenue reached JPY2.2bn (+4.5% YoY), with Product Services at JPY1.5bn (+22.6% YoY) and Professional Services at JPY707mn (-20.0% YoY).
Operating profit increased to JPY412mn (+45.5% YoY) due to a JPY177mn rise in Product Services gross profit.
LaKeel product license sales rose to JPY412mn (+174.5% YoY), driven by LaKeel HR, with ARPU at JPY317,000 (+16.5% YoY).

POET: Revising Forecasts Due to the Buyout of its JV Partner, Capital Raises, and New Facilities

By Zacks Small Cap Research

POET Technologies is a startup disrupting the photonics industry with a new technology that eliminates parts of an optical transceiver and replaces them with a single integrated device which is smaller, cheaper, faster, more scalable and with much lower power consumption than the current solutions.
Its solution can be produced at wafer scale, eliminating costly manual steps, and allowing it to be easily produced in large quantities and at low cost.
In 2024 it raised $81 million to ramp production and restructure the company by buying out its JV partner.

Klab Inc (3656 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Revenue was JPY1.6bn, increasing 3.4% YoY but decreasing 27.2% QoQ, with Japan and overseas declines.
Operating loss reduced YoY due to cost reduction efforts, with decreased labor, outsourcing, and SG&A expenses.
Foreign exchange loss of JPY116mn recorded due to settlement and revaluation of foreign currency-denominated receivables and payables.

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May 17

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Indusind Bank, Banco De Sabadell SA, T&D Holdings, FaithNetwork Co Ltd, Dream Incubator, Advance Create, Jaccs Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May
IndusInd Bank- Never Ending Trouble
Under Review: Banking on Politics in BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell
T&D Holdings (8795 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Advance Create (8798 JP): 1H FY09/25 Flash update
Jaccs Co Ltd (8584 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May

Back on the 4th December 204, Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
The list of pre-cons was extensive. Last night (15th May), ESR announced the satisfaction of all pre-cons.
The Scheme Doc is now required to be dispatched by the 22nd May, suggesting payment around mid-July. Assuming no dispatch delays.

IndusInd Bank- Never Ending Trouble

By Nitin Mangal

Indusind Bank (IIB IN) does not seem to be able to get out of hot water.
In yet another accounting and governance pothole, the bank has disclosed a surprising take on interest income, which was overstated by INR 6.7 bn.
The internal audit department also reported unsubstantiated balances of INR 6 bn in other assets, which was netted off with liabilities.

Under Review: Banking on Politics in BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell has cleared regulatory hurdles but faces political resistance (public consultation ending today 16 May), with final Government review pending by June 26.
A potential Sabadell–Abanca merger appears unlikely; Escotet would be the top shareholder (~33–36%) in such a deal, but Abanca has publicly denied interest.
The offer trades at a negative gross spread, suggesting market doubts or expectations of a sweetened bid — supporting a long SAB / short BBVA pair trade setup.

T&D Holdings (8795 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Ordinary revenues in FY03/25 reached JPY3.7tn, a 16.3% YoY increase, with insurance premiums at JPY2.6tn.
Group adjusted profit rose 36.7% YoY to JPY141.5bn, driven by strong domestic life insurance business performance.
T&D Holdings forecasts FY03/26 ordinary revenues to decline 19.3% YoY to JPY3.0tn, with a 12.3% YoY profit increase.

FaithNetwork Co Ltd (3489 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

FY03/25 results: Sales JPY29.9bn (+34.2% YoY), operating profit JPY4.5bn (+116.2% YoY), net income JPY2.8bn (+193.6% YoY).
Real Estate Investment Support business: Sales JPY29.0bn (+35.1% YoY), segment profit JPY4.3bn (+121.0% YoY), margin 15.0%.
FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY35.0bn (+17.0% YoY), operating profit JPY5.6bn (+23.9% YoY), dividend JPY120.0 per share.

Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

For FY03/25, the company reported sales of JPY6.2bn, operating profit of JPY257mn, and net income of JPY170mn.
In FY03/25, Business Production sales were JPY5.5bn, with operating profit of JPY1.1bn, and Venture Capital sales increased 116.0% YoY.
For FY03/26, the company forecasts Business Production sales of JPY6.2bn and expects an annual dividend of JPY106.00 per share.

Advance Create (8798 JP): 1H FY09/25 Flash update

In 1H FY09/25, revenue declined 39.3% YoY, resulting in operating, recurring, and net losses due to lower advertising income and reduced PV.
The Insurance Agency business saw a 37.6% YoY revenue decline, with an operating loss of JPY1.1bn, impacted by decreased PV and sluggish appointment growth.
For FY09/25, the company forecasts a 5.8% YoY revenue decline, with JPY912mn negative impact from special factors in Q1 and Q2.

Jaccs Co Ltd (8584 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

JACCS reported FY03/25 operating revenue of JPY191.1bn (+3.4% YoY), exceeding the full-year forecast by 1.0%.
Consolidated operating expenses increased by JPY13.6bn (+9.0% YoY), with notable rises in bad-debt-related expenses and finance costs.
Revised forecasts for FY03/26 project operating revenue of JPY193.0bn (+4.4% YoY) and a dividend of JPY210/share.

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May 16

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Santos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources, Transurban, Asx.

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May 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US-Listed China Plays: Thoughts On Dissention and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

US-Listed China Plays: Thoughts On Dissention
Ohayo Japan | Walmart Tariff Warning
Japan Morning Connection: Market Rotation Away from Tech as Big Winners Take a Breather
Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated
#147 India Insight: India Tops Asia in BofA Survey, Tata Firms Plan EV, INR 15k Cr Steel Investments
Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer
Moutai Hopes Cultural Events Can Win Over Global Drinkers
[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/ZK US/AITO/LKNCY US
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/PDD US/Red Note/BILI US/1810 HK
China’s E-Commerce Giants Adjust Prices as U.S. Tariffs on Low-Value Parcels Bite

US-Listed China Plays: Thoughts On Dissention

With another US-listed China play subject to an Offer – Dada Nexus (DADA US) – what exactly is the process for dissentient shareholders to dissent?
Do they need to vote Against, For, or Abstain? Or not at all? The short answer: in the Cayman Islands, there are no restrictions on how a dissenter can vote.
This insight is a bolt on to my ongoing series on appraisal rights in the privatisation of a Cayman Islands companies listed in the U.S.

Ohayo Japan | Walmart Tariff Warning

By Mark Chadwick

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% for a fourth straight gain while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%, as investors rotated into defensive dividend stocks amid concerns of overheating
Meta fell on delays to its AI rollout, and Applied Materials gave a weak forecast after hours. Walmart posted strong results but warned of price hikes from tariffs
Kyocera faces pressure from Oasis Management to improve profitability through a 1,000 billion yen share buyback

Japan Morning Connection: Market Rotation Away from Tech as Big Winners Take a Breather

By Andrew Jackson

Ai plays generally down, with AMAT after mkt dulling sentiment further, despite looking conservative.
Kioxia numbers look decent, but QoQ guidance is down on FX, with no follow through for Sandisk in the US.
Woeful price action for Kyocera yesterday despite an activist win, with the market still cautious over management bungling.

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

By Nicolas Baratte

Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY 1) China, Auto & Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles. Wafer price doubles.
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers

#147 India Insight: India Tops Asia in BofA Survey, Tata Firms Plan EV, INR 15k Cr Steel Investments

By Sudarshan Bhandari

India surpasses Japan as Asia’s top market in Bank of America survey, driven by strong infrastructure growth and rising consumption.
Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) plans to boost EV sales with new models like Harrier.ev and Sierra.ev, targeting a recovery in FY26.
Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) plans a INR 15,000 crore capex in FY26, with 80% allocated to domestic projects, including decarbonization efforts.

Time for Some Shorts For the Hong Kong Summer

By Rikki Malik

Reprieve on the tariff front gives investors the opportunity to sell/short.
Despite market action, a global slowdown and a US recession are still on the cards.
We look at some stocks that will not perform well in this environment.

Moutai Hopes Cultural Events Can Win Over Global Drinkers

By Caixin Global

High-end liquor maker Kweichow Moutai Co. Ltd. (600519.SH -0.59%) is prioritizing cultural adaptation as it pushes for a global expansion, a top executive said at a Caixin forum.
Speaking at the inaugural Caixin London Atlantic Dialogue on Thursday, Deputy Communist Party Secretary You Yalin emphasized that the state-run firm is leveraging its branded cultural events — “Moutai Night” and “Moutai Culture Festival” — to expand further into global markets. He said that while drinking customs vary around the world, one common thread is alcohol facilitating connections between people.
Moutai is best-known for its eponymous brand of “baijiu,” a traditional Chinese spirit. Moutai’s high-end baijiu, which can cost thousands of yuan a bottle, is often present at diplomatic events such as state banquets.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/ZK US/AITO/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

1211 HK: BYD’s New K-Car Spotted in Spy Shots (+)
1211 HK/ZK US/AITO: Week 19 (May 5–11, 2025) Sales Rankings(+/+/+)
LKNCY US: Mixue Group Signs RMB4 Billion Brazil Coffee Bean Purchase Deal(-)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/JD US/3690 HK/PDD US/Red Note/BILI US/1810 HK

By Ying Pan

BABA US: Alibaba’s Qwen Team to Launch AGI-like Deep Research Functionality for Free User Access(+)
BABA US: Ele.me’s Retail Digital System Integrated into Taobao Instashopping (+)
JD US/3690 HK: JD, Meituan, Ele.me Summoned by Government (///)

China’s E-Commerce Giants Adjust Prices as U.S. Tariffs on Low-Value Parcels Bite

By Caixin Global

The sweeping U.S. tariff policy targeting low-value parcels from China has upended cross-border e-commerce operations, forcing platforms such as Temu and Shein to pull fully managed listings and scramble to rework their logistics strategies.
PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu, a pioneer of the full-consignment model — where goods are shipped directly from China to American buyers — now lists only “local warehouse” or semi-managed products on its site and app. Fully managed items are marked “out of stock,” and one Temu seller told Caixin their U.S. storefront was automatically suspended by the platform.
The disruption follows Donald Trump’s presidential order, signed on April 9, imposing harsh tariffs on small parcels from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. The directive mandates either a 120% ad valorem duty or a $100 flat fee per package, with the latter set to double to $200 from June 1.

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May 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market
ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Scheme Booklet Should Calm Nerves
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash
[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3
Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Scheme Booklet Dispatch Lends More Than A Veneer Of Support
Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Belgian REITs in Stalemate Over Merger

A Practical Guide to Stub Arb Trade in the Korean Stock Market

By Sanghyun Park

Due to NAV accuracy issues, locals favor sigma plays within ±2σ bands over classic stub trades, with aggressive traders rotating longs and shorts around ±1σ.
Avoid trending divergence periods; these eight targets usually mean-revert well, but H1 this year showed unusually deep divergence—important to consider for current sigma plays.
As of today, no 20-day MA sigmas trigger trades, but holding company strength drives price ratios—a trend likely lasting post-election—suggesting ±2σ sigma plays with longs in holdcos.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for the consortium scheme offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) has been satisfied. The scheme document will be despatched by 22 May.
The consortium has disclosed an additional irrevocable. Total irrevocables and letters of support represent 35.01% of outstanding shares (58.24% of disinterested shares).
This is a done deal, helped by the material derating of peers. At the last close and for an early August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/21.3%

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Scheme Booklet Should Calm Nerves

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) has released its scheme booklet regarding Cosette’s A$7.40 offer. The IE opines that the offer is fair and reasonable within its A$6.61-A$7.99 valuation range.
The high spread reflects concerns that recent events would trigger the MAC clause. Thankfully, the scheme booklet does not indicate that Cosette is contesting it.
Recent events should help quell retail opposition to the offer. At the last close and for a 2 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 19.4%/262%.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).
Ping An has secured support from M&G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).

[Japan Activism?] Toyota Group Equity Affiliate and Murakami Target Aichi Steel Does Large ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

Aichi Steel (5482 JP) announced earnings on 25-April during market hours. Results were OK. Guidance was OK. The div was WAY up for Mar26. Shares fell. Then rose 26-April.
Aichi Steel is a Toyota Motors equity affiliate (26-27%), Toyota Industries, Toyota R.E., megabanks, the Kyoeikai, and Nippon Steel all have stakes. Nippon Steel recently reduced its position.
Activist Murakami has about 10% across two entities. This morning, the Company was to buy back 16%. WHO is selling? We don’t know yet. Likely a mix. Details may matter.

Hanjin Group Chairman Cho Fights Back Against Hoban Group for Control of Hanjin Kal

By Douglas Kim

On 15 May, Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) announced that it will contribute 440,044 shares of its treasury stock to the company’s welfare fund, representing 0.7% of its common shares.
This is a clear indication of Hanjin Kal Chairman Cho Won-Tae and his allies launching a management rights defense against Hoban Group which recently increased its stake in Hanjin Kal.
The higher probability scenario is for Hanjin Kal’s shares to retrace down to below 100,000 won level as a full blown M&A fight is not likely in the near future.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Scheme Booklet Dispatch Lends More Than A Veneer Of Support

After a rough week – somewhat of an understatement – the Scheme Doc is now out.
The Court Meeting is the18th June; the last day of trading the 23rd June, and implementation 2nd July. The IE says fair with a valuation range of A$6.61-A$7.99/share.
This IE’s valuation range doesn’t factor in the pharma EO, given its ambiguity. Nor the FDA level. However, Mayne, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Doc’s veracity.

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Belgian REITs in Stalemate Over Merger

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cofinimmo’s Board considers the 1.16x exchange offer significantly undervalued, citing EPS dilution, low control premium, and disproportionate benefit to Aedifica shareholders despite strategic rationale and merger synergies.
The combined entity would form Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, benefiting from €12.1bn in assets, ~€710m contractual rents, improved diversification, and potential credit rating uplift from BBB to BBB+.
A revised 1.21 ratio (probability-weighted value of €76.29) remains plausible, supporting a long Cofinimmo/short Aedifica arbitrage trade, though limited current spread suggests cautious sizing given deal uncertainty and downside risk.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

May 16

Daily Brief ECM: Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Valuation Insights
CATL (3750 HK): Powered by the PetroDollar. HK Offer Overview and Valuations.
Bharti Airtel Block – Another Singtel Selldown Worth US$1bn
Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains
Green Tea Group IPO Trading – Decent Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Well
Mirxes IPO: Valuation Without Sensible Fundamentals
MNTN, Inc. IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth Accelerated in 1Q’25, Attractive Valuation Vs. Peers

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma A/H Listing – Low-End Is Probably Close to Fair Value

By Sumeet Singh

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), a China-based pharmaceutical company, aims to raise around US$1.3bn in its H-share listing.
JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Valuation Insights