Smartkarma Daily Briefs

AbbVie Inc. concluded 2024 with robust performance metrics, highlighted by a notable return to growth, despite significant challenges such as the $5 billion U.S. Humira sales erosion due to biosimilar competition.
The company reported a total revenue of $56.3 billion, surpassing its initial guidance by over $2 billion, with adjusted earnings per share recorded at $10.12, which is $0.49 above their previously forecasted midpoint.
On a segmented basis, AbbVie’s “ex-Humira” platform, consisting primarily of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, demonstrated substantial growth.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) Pre-IPO: A Closer Look at Its Core Products

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Duality Biotherapeutics, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, plans to raise up to US$250m via a Hong Kong listing.
We looked at the latest prospectus and noted it toned down the language and strengthened its team.
We also compare the clinical readings of its core products with benchmark products.

HLB Life Science (067630 KS): FDA Rejects Oncology Drug AGAIN; What Lies Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

HLB Life Science (067630 KS) shares lost ~20% since March 20 to trade near five-year lows after a group company, Elevar Therapeutics faced setback regarding a new cancer drug application.
FDA has rejected Elevar’s new drug application of its lead proprietary drug candidate, rivoceranib in combination with camrelizumab as a therapy for advanced or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.
This is the second time that the FDA declined to approve the drug combo. Elevar plans to promptly supplement the trial result and apply for reapproval to the FDA.

ADAP 4Q24 Earnings: EPS Miss on 1x Restructuring/Impairment Costs Potential Capital Raise Adds Risk to the Story

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Key 4Q24 takeaways include: 1) Tecelra launch ahead of expectations based on the number of patients apheresed thus far and ATCs up and running, with management expressing confidence in generating at least $25 million of Tecelra sales in 2025 2) Lete-cel on track for a quicker commercialization timeline, with an expected rolling BLA submission in late 2025 followed by FDA approval in 2026 3) senior executives recently further narrowed R&D and capital allocations by pausing spending on the company’s PRAME and CD70 programs, which is anticipated to generate $75 million to $100 million of cost savings through 2028 (on top of the $300 million of savings announced last quarter) and 4) despite anticipated cost reductions over the next several years, management conceded the need for incremental capital to remain a going concern through anticipated profitability in 2027, and recently engaged an investment bank to evaluate potential partnerships, strategic collaborations, business combinations, financial transactions, and/or pipeline monetizations.

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Mar 26

Daily Brief Financials: Great Eastern Holdings, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Bank Of China Ltd (H), Capitaland India Trust, Mitsubishi Estate, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, SmartStop Self Storage REIT and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

This Needs To Be Sorted: Great Eastern (GE SP)’s Protracted Suspension
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Placement: Not a Whole Lot of DPU Accretion
Bank Of China (3988 HK/601988 CH) Earnings on 26/3: Anticipated Price Movements and Options Insights
10 in 10 with CapitaLand India Trust – Capitalising India’s Tech Growth
Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Mar-2025): Warburg Pincus JV acquires second Korean asset.
Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurer IPO
SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA): Long-Awaited REIT to Make April Debut

This Needs To Be Sorted: Great Eastern (GE SP)’s Protracted Suspension

Back on the 10th May 2024, OCBC (OCBC SP) launched a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 11.56% in life/non-life insurer Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) not held.
The Offer closed on the 12th July with OCBC holding 93.62%. Shares were subsequently. suspended. And have been suspended ever since. Compulsory acquisition was not afforded.
The SGX has thrice granted OCBC an extension of time to restore the float. UK-based activist Palliser is agitating for better terms. Time for a bump.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust Placement: Not a Whole Lot of DPU Accretion

By Nicholas Tan

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) aims to raise around US$153m in order to partly fund its full acquisition of Northpoint City South Wing.
This will complement the company’s operations of the Northpoint City North Wing and consolidate the entire Northpoint City under its ownership.
In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Bank Of China (3988 HK/601988 CH) Earnings on 26/3: Anticipated Price Movements and Options Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) /Bank of China (601988 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 26 March 2025, after market close.
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement is above the historically recorded movement.
Implied Volatility, Options Strategies and Dividends: Discussion of implied volatility term structure and option strategies. Dividends are now semi-annual.

10 in 10 with CapitaLand India Trust – Capitalising India’s Tech Growth

By Geoff Howie

CLINT anticipates revenue growth in FY2025 from MTB 6 at ITPB and a data centre in Navi Mumbai.
CLINT’s portfolio occupancy reached 95% in December 2024, driven by asset enhancements and effective leasing activities.
CLINT achieved a 14% year-on-year growth in NPI for FY 2024 and a 7.2% distribution yield.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Mar-2025): Warburg Pincus JV acquires second Korean asset.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Warburg Pincus and Wide Creek JV have acquired GreenFort, a Korean logistic asset, marking their second investment in the country.
Gaw Capital is set to discuss a joint venture with MTD TV for the development of 1,200 homes in an upcoming interview on Wednesday.
Mitsubishi Estate has sold its stake in a Shinjuku office tower to a J-REIT for $190 million, continuing its strategic real estate transactions.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Specialty Insurer IPO

By IPO Boutique

For the year ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $437.0 million in gross written premiums, representing a compound annual growth rate of 28.4% over the last two years.
We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.
Zimmer Financial Services Group LLC (“ZFSG”) will continue to be a majority owner of Ategrity following this offering.

SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA): Long-Awaited REIT to Make April Debut

By IPO Boutique

A REIT which had been in the pipeline since March 2022 has finally set terms for a potential April debut.
Total self storage related revenues for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023 were approximately $219.0 million and $215.3 million, respectively.
The company intends to pay monthly distributions. The IPO is scheduled to debut on April 2nd.

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Mar 26

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Mixue Group, Tata Motors Ltd, D’Alba Global, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, NZME Limited, Golf Digest Online, New York Times Co A, Zoomcar Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths
7&I (3382) – Clarifications of Clarifications But Progress Is Apparent
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June
Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play
D’Alba Global IPO Preview
This TOB Does Not Question the Fundamental Issue of REIT Governance, but Will the Tactic Succeed?
NZME’s Strategic Review and Activist Involvement Signal Potential Value Unlock Through OneRoof Spin-Off and Board Overhaul
Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – FY25/12 Key Initiatives for Japan and Overseas
The New York Times Company: Growth in Digital Subscriptions & Revenue Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
Zoomcar Holdings – Vastly Improved Customer Experience…

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) has published two documents to respond to misinformation and detail its “constructive engagement” with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline point to two parties at loggerheads.
While the Board claims it is pursuing a dual-track process to create value, the reality is that the process is designed to hinder Couche-Tard’s offer to facilitate the restructuring plan.

7&I (3382) – Clarifications of Clarifications But Progress Is Apparent

On 10 March, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) released a statement about its interactions with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The next day, ATD released its own. They didn’t match.
The 7&i spokesperson admitted one technical point, but investors seemed to believe ATD over 7&i. On 13 March, ATD held a presentation in Tokyo. Materials? Unchanged. Earnings comments? Unchanged.
This morning, 7&i released a document which “corrects the record regarding critical false and misleading claims about 7&i’s engagement with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).” OUCH. The stock fell.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

By Special Situation Investments

There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.

Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.
Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.
Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.

D’Alba Global IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

D’Alba Global is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2025. IPO price range is from 54,500 won to 66,300 won per share.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the company will be 692 billion won to 842 billion won post IPO.
D’Alba Global has one of the best growth rates for sales and operating profits among Korean cosmetic companies in the past four years.

This TOB Does Not Question the Fundamental Issue of REIT Governance, but Will the Tactic Succeed?

By Aki Matsumoto

Since important decisions on REIT management are made by the sponsor companies, governance isn’t functioning. That’s why REITs have been very careful to strengthen their compliance systems and information disclosure.
For REITs that rely heavily on properties contributed by their sponsors, it is unlikely that other investors would support an activist fund’s advocacy for a change of asset manager.
The most annoying thing for the sponsor is the change of asset manager. The tactic of this TOB is to extract shareholder returns by addressing what the sponsor company dislike.

NZME’s Strategic Review and Activist Involvement Signal Potential Value Unlock Through OneRoof Spin-Off and Board Overhaul

NZME Limited’s strategic review of OneRoof aims for potential separation, with activist Jim Grenon acquiring a 13.5% stake.
Grenon and Osmium Partners are pushing for board changes and OneRoof’s monetization, suggesting a possible spin-off.
The sum-of-the-parts valuation estimates NZME’s stock at A$1.49/share, implying a 35% upside from current levels.

Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – FY25/12 Key Initiatives for Japan and Overseas

By Sessa Investment Research

While FY24/12 consolidated financial results paint a challenging environment, the solid achievements in GDO’s mainstay Golf Merchandise Sales business, which accounts for 34% of total consolidated net sales, should not be overlooked.
The graph below comparing golf gear sales for one of the largest brick-and-mortar retailers ‘Co. A’ with the largest online retailer GDO highlights the success of GDO’s initiatives, GDO turning in +7.3% YoY growth versus Co. A -0.6% YoY. Co.
A noted in its 1H FY25/6 briefing that for its Golf business (34.8% of consolidated net sales), existing store sales declined YoY, citing weak performance of golf clubs due to differences in new product launches and price reductions.

The New York Times Company: Growth in Digital Subscriptions & Revenue Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!

The New York Times Company reported its fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2024, highlighting solid performance across key operational and financial metrics.
The company continued to focus on its essential subscription strategy, aiming to expand its subscriber base and diversify its revenue streams.
In 2024, New York Times Company added over 1.1 million digital subscribers, bringing its total subscriber count to 11.4 million.

Zoomcar Holdings – Vastly Improved Customer Experience…

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Peer-to-peer (P2P) car sharing is a new and growing industry that competes with traditional car rental companies.
Rather than renting access to a company-owned fleet (B2C), car sharing allows owners of cars to rent their own vehicles directly to consumers through a platform (P2P) and charges a fee for the services.
The industry looks to emulate other successful shared economy businesses such as Airbnb, etc., which are platforms for property owners to rent real estate directly to consumers.

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Mar 26

Most Read: NetEase , Xiaomi Corp, Tsuruha Holdings, Seven & I Holdings, BayCurrent Consulting , Samsung SDI, Fuji Soft Inc, Gold Road Resources, Mixue Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase
Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum
Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths
7&I (3382) – Clarifications of Clarifications But Progress Is Apparent
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation
Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup
Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – KKR Does Deal With the Family To Squeeze Out Minorities – You Can Join Too
More Gold Fever: Gold Field’s Hostile Tilt For Gold Road
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.
NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index.

Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to place 750m shares at a price range of HK$52.8-54.6/share, a 4.2-7.4% discount from last. That could raise up to HK$40.95bn (US$5.27bn).
There will be limited passive buying near-term. There will be more passive buying at the end of May. Then there will be passive selling early June.
Shorts will be hurting from the relentless move higher in the stock and there could be short covering if the stock moves lower from these levels.

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Uncomfortable Truths

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) has published two documents to respond to misinformation and detail its “constructive engagement” with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN).
The statements underscore the Board’s serious doubts about securing US antitrust approval. The significant discrepancies in the engagement timeline point to two parties at loggerheads.
While the Board claims it is pursuing a dual-track process to create value, the reality is that the process is designed to hinder Couche-Tard’s offer to facilitate the restructuring plan.

7&I (3382) – Clarifications of Clarifications But Progress Is Apparent

On 10 March, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) released a statement about its interactions with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The next day, ATD released its own. They didn’t match.
The 7&i spokesperson admitted one technical point, but investors seemed to believe ATD over 7&i. On 13 March, ATD held a presentation in Tokyo. Materials? Unchanged. Earnings comments? Unchanged.
This morning, 7&i released a document which “corrects the record regarding critical false and misleading claims about 7&i’s engagement with Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).” OUCH. The stock fell.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close of trading on 31 March.
Since announcement, BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.
Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.

Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s rights issues offer a clean arb setup—track stock rights vs. spot price, with first price as a cap, and lock in predictable entry vs. exit costs.
Aggressive locals skip hedging, betting the discount holds between final pricing and listing. History backs it, but it’s a case-by-case call—not a blanket recommendation.
Samsung SDI and Hanwha Aerospace’s KRW 5.5T raise is massive, likely flooding stock rights into the market—prime setup for arb plays.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP) – KKR Does Deal With the Family To Squeeze Out Minorities – You Can Join Too

KKR’s Second Tender Offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) ended 19 February 2025 and KKR got a whopping 57.9% after Bain bowed out. It was close.
The Nozawa founder said it would not tender. Others family members may have, but now KKR has signed a deal with Nozawa family company YK NFC, to support the squeezeout.
Assuming, Nozawa Hiroshi’s stake and the NFC stake remain unchanged, that cements the result of the 25 April AGM. But there may be games to play.

More Gold Fever: Gold Field’s Hostile Tilt For Gold Road

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ),
In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Three Hot Inclusions to Stock Connect in June

There have been 14 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX in Q1. One listing is a transfer from the GEM Board and one is a De-SPAC.
Of the 14 stocks, we see Mixue Group (2097 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Bloks Group (1850960D CH) as potential HSCI inclusions in June.
There are no lock-up expiries in the stocks ahead of inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect and the low float could take the stocks higher ahead of the index inclusion announcement.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rallies as Tariff Concerns Ease and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rallies as Tariff Concerns Ease
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Swing Back to Risk on Potential for Watered Down Tariffs
Semaglutide Patent Expiry: The Next Big Unlock in Global Pharma
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies
Monday Delight: 24/03/25
#124 India Insight: Adani Eyes Cables, Piramal Targets $2B, World Bank Backs Rural Homes

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Rallies as Tariff Concerns Ease

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks rallied as Trump signalled softer tariffs, Tesla soared 12%, and Treasury yields rose. The US announced 25% tariffs on Venezuelan oil, pressuring China
Sumitomo Real Estate hit a record high after reports that activist investor Elliott acquired shares and is in talks to enhance shareholder value.
Hyundai Motor Group will invest 3.1 trillion yen in the U.S. over four years, including 900 billion yen for a Louisiana steel plant

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Swing Back to Risk on Potential for Watered Down Tariffs

By Andrew Jackson

Tesla surging on the prospect for auto tariffs and semi’s up on the potential for leniency.
US homebuilder woes continue with KB homes reporting a miss after market.
Activist Elliott taking a stake in Sumitomo Reality may see holdings under pressure.

Semaglutide Patent Expiry: The Next Big Unlock in Global Pharma

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s pharma landscape is gearing up for a seismic shift as Semaglutide, used in diabetes and obesity, faces patent expiry in India by March 2026.
With the global Semaglutide market expected to hit $56.75 billion by 2030, India’s low obesity drug penetration and cost-sensitive population make it a high-potential, underpenetrated market.
The Semaglutide opportunity could rival Revlimid for Indian players. Natco, with FTF in the US. Expect multi-year growth runway, but execution, supply chain complexity, and regulatory hurdles remain key monitorables.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 12/52]: The Tug of War Between JD and Meituan Intensifies

By Ying Pan

Our take is JD.com’s expansion to O2O/Food Delivery is still measured and constrained. It mainly serves the premium members;
Meituan, PDD’ and Beike posted results broadly both in-line/slightly exceed expectations. Meituan and Beike raised AI capex while PDD and JD.com didn’t mention;
Game received first official recognition in government’s 30 stimulative measures for consumption. Our TOP PICK is NTES.

Monday Delight: 24/03/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

#124 India Insight: Adani Eyes Cables, Piramal Targets $2B, World Bank Backs Rural Homes

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Adani Group plans to enter the cables and wires segment, eyeing acquisitions worth $500-700 million.
Piramal Pharma (PIRPHARM IN) aims $2B revenue by FY30, betting on CDMO growth, complex generics scale-up, and expanding consumer brands portfolio.
World Bank to invest $500 million in India’s climate-resilient rural housing, supporting sustainability, innovation, and inclusive growth under PMAY-G.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief ECM: Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive
Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup
LG Electronics India IPO: It’s A Big Deal. Potential Pricing and Valuation Preview
Lotte Global Logistics IPO Preview
Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak
DN Solutions Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
LXJ International Holdings Pre-IPO – Further Revenue & Margin Pressures Ahead
DN Solutions IPO: The Bear Case
Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies Pre-IPO- The Negatives – Margin Pressures & Concentration Risks

Xiaomi US$5.3bn Placement – Relatively Small, Strong Momentum but Is Expensive

By Sumeet Singh

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.3bn via selling 3% additional shares.
The shares have done exceedingly well this year and are now trading at their all time highs.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Revisiting Korea’s Local Rights Issue Arb Setup

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s rights issues offer a clean arb setup—track stock rights vs. spot price, with first price as a cap, and lock in predictable entry vs. exit costs.
Aggressive locals skip hedging, betting the discount holds between final pricing and listing. History backs it, but it’s a case-by-case call—not a blanket recommendation.
Samsung SDI and Hanwha Aerospace’s KRW 5.5T raise is massive, likely flooding stock rights into the market—prime setup for arb plays.

LG Electronics India IPO: It’s A Big Deal. Potential Pricing and Valuation Preview

By Devi Subhakesan

LG Electronics India has secured regulatory approval for its IPO, expected to raise between USD 1 to 1.5 billion.
However, it remains unclear whether the company will delay the launch until market sentiment shows further improvement.
LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPO is a 100% offer for sale by parent and hence the entire proceeds from the IPO will accrue to LG Electronics (066570 KS).

Lotte Global Logistics IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Lotte Global Logistics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in May 2025. IPO price range is from 11,500 won and 13,500 won.
At the high end of the IPO price range, the expected public offering amount is 202 billion won.
According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is 479 billion won to 562 billion won.

Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

By Nicholas Tan

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

DN Solutions Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

DN Solutions (298440 KS) (DNS) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
DNS is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine tools and the business of automation solutions and services related thereto.
We have looked at its past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

LXJ International Holdings Pre-IPO – Further Revenue & Margin Pressures Ahead

By Troy Wong

LXJ International Holdings Limited (LXJIH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As a market leader in the Chinese-style QSR market in China, LXJIH was focused on its self-operated restaurant model for expansion but has recently ramped up its franchise business.
Post-COVID, LXJIH’s margins have bounced but if LXJIH continues to expand its franchise business while converting self-operated restaurants, there might be pressure on revenue growth and margins going forward.

DN Solutions IPO: The Bear Case

DN Solutions (298440 KS), the third-largest machining centre/turning centre machine tool manufacturer, seeks to raise US$1.1 billion in a KRX IPO.
In DN Solutions IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on tepid growth due to volume declines, early indications of margin pressure, rising cash conversion cycle, and mid-tier FCF margin.

Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Since DB-1303 has no advantage in clinical data in front of competing products, the commercialization outlook is gloomy. The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability of this target.
Considering that the current capital market has become more and more rational toward innovative drug/biotech companies, the absence of commercialized products of Duality will obviously affect valuation expectations.
The post-money valuation after Series B+ financing is about US$270 million (or about RMB2 billion), which is not expensive, and there is a chance to obtain valuation premium after IPO.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies Pre-IPO- The Negatives – Margin Pressures & Concentration Risks

By Akshat Shah

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Zenergy is an EV and energy storage system battery manufacturer providing integrated battery solutions, encompassing battery cells, modules, packs and battery management systems dedicated to large-scale applications of electrochemical products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade
Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Genting Berhad, Road King, Meituan, AAC Technologies
In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the inflation impact from tariffs could be transitory, if the duties are limited in scope and there is no retaliation from other countries.
He added that the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach for now, albeit he believes rates will be lower 12-18 months from now if inflation remains contained in the long run. Separately, New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for the Fed’s rate pause last week, stating that “the current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labour market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal”.

China Oil & Gas – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

COG has reported largely stable FY 2024 results, with gross profit and EBITDA growing despite a lower top line.
Consolidated leverage improved, supported by the stronger earnings and cash flows.
Liquidity at the holdco level remains adequate.

Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

By Leandro Gubler

Stronger post-acquisition scale, healthy FCF outlook, and export momentum reinforce the deleveraging path and outperformance case
We upgrade Minerva to Outperform, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s deleveraging trajectory, supported by expected cash generation despite integration costs and higher interest expenses.
Minerva reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue up 26.0% QoQ and 73.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.1% QoQ and 55.8% YoY, though the margin narrowed to 8.8%

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

By Leandro Gubler

4Q24 results: Minerva – acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF – strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex – high carry but risk outweigh rewards.
Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal
Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control – Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum
Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again – Bigger Than You Think It Is
Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)
Short Selling Resuming on 31 March in Korea – Stocks With Highest Short Selling Lending Balance
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Is Still Inexpensive To Its Cellebrite Stake
More Gold Fever: Gold Field’s Hostile Tilt For Gold Road
Insiders’ Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?
Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

Xiaomi (1810 HK)’s US$5bn Placement: Unfavourable Index Dynamics but Strong Momentum

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is looking to place 750m shares at a price range of HK$52.8-54.6/share, a 4.2-7.4% discount from last. That could raise up to HK$40.95bn (US$5.27bn).
There will be limited passive buying near-term. There will be more passive buying at the end of May. Then there will be passive selling early June.
Shorts will be hurting from the relentless move higher in the stock and there could be short covering if the stock moves lower from these levels.

Tokyu Corp (9005) To Lift Stake in Tokyu REIT (8957) Again – Bigger Than You Think It Is

Today, Tokyu Corp (9005 JP) announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.
This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed here. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward.
The main reason? Squeeze the ‘share’ price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That’s not bad. The goal is a higher price.

Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges.

Short Selling Resuming on 31 March in Korea – Stocks With Highest Short Selling Lending Balance

By Douglas Kim

Short selling balance in the Korean stock market was 62.4 trillion won as of 21 March 2025, up significantly from 47.2 trillion won three months ago.
Among the stocks in KOSPI with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Posco Future M, Yuhan Corp, LG Energy Solution, and Hanwha Aerospace.
Among the stocks in KOSDAQ with high short selling balance and high lending balance ratios include Ecopro BM, Ecopro Co, HLB, and Eo Technics.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Is Still Inexpensive To Its Cellebrite Stake

Sun Corp (6736 JP) has declined ~6% in the past month. Its 44.3% stake in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

More Gold Fever: Gold Field’s Hostile Tilt For Gold Road

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ),
In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

Insiders’ Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?

By Nimish Maheshwari

The start of 2025 has been particularly turbulent for Indian equities as broader market sentiment soured due to elevated valuations, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global macro uncertainty.
However, amid this volatility, one signal stood out: insider trading activity.
In this report, we deep-dive into insider buying and selling trends from January 1 to March 3, 2025, to uncover where company promoters and top executives are placing their bets

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.
A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.
Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.

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Mar 25

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent/Netease: One Game Approved Each in March and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approved Each in March
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Mar-2025): DeepSeek impacts chip demand globally.
What Does Adani’s Foray into Wires & Cables Mean for Investors and the Industry?
StoneCo Ltd.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Delta At Nvidia GTC 2025; Foxconn EV Strategy Win; Key Semi Industry Indicators
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Innovative Drugs Drive 2024 Performance; Outlook Is Positive
Torikizoku (3193 JP): Coverage Initiation,1H FY07/25 flash update
BYD (1211): Encouraging 2024 Result, But Close to Our Target After Two Buy Suggestions This Year.
[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US
Docusign Inc.: Will Its Emphasis On The Expansion of Identity and Access Management (IAM) Pay Off?

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approved Each in March

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the March batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening. We see pick up in approval rate this month.
Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game. In addition, Kingsoft received approval for its legendary Sword Heroes series.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Mar-2025): DeepSeek impacts chip demand globally.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

DeepSeek is a significant factor driving global chip demand with implications for various industries including automotive.
Tesla and Tata are in talks regarding the sourcing of EV components, highlighting the growing importance of electric vehicles in the market.
Tim Cook’s visit to China to discuss collaboration with DeepSeek signals potential advancements in the supply chain and technology sectors.

What Does Adani’s Foray into Wires & Cables Mean for Investors and the Industry?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Investors should keep a close eye on Adani’s execution timeline, the impact on valuations in the sector, and the fundamentals of existing players in the C&W industry.
While Adani’s entry may bring some disruption, the sector’s strong growth prospects and the resilience of leading players suggest that there is still value to be found.
In the end, long-term success in this industry will depend on a combination of strategic vision, operational excellence, and the ability to adapt to changing market dynamics.

StoneCo Ltd.: 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

StoneCo Ltd. recently shared its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, demonstrating a period marked by robust strategic execution and notable financial outcomes, despite facing macroeconomic challenges.
The company’s strategy is focused on three core objectives: leadership in the MSMB (micro, small, and medium businesses) market, enhanced client engagement, and scalable platform growth.
In 2024, StoneCo’s MSMB operations saw a 15% year-over-year increase in card total payment values (TPV), although this fell short of guidance due to the rapid adoption of PIX, the Brazilian instant payment system, which continued to encroach on traditional debit and cash transactions.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Delta At Nvidia GTC 2025; Foxconn EV Strategy Win; Key Semi Industry Indicators

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA GTC 2025 Last Week — Delta Electronics Expands Role in Nvidia Ecosystem Showcasing AI-Centric Power Solutions
Foxconn’s Huge EV Bet Pays Off: Key Mitsubishi Win Could Spark Additional Automaker Deals to Come
Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, and 2025 Forecasts

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Innovative Drugs Drive 2024 Performance; Outlook Is Positive

By Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) reported 33% YoY net profit growth to RMB4.4B on 21% YoY revenue growth to RMB12.3B in 2024. Oncology revenue jumped 32% YoY to RMB8.1B.
Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 38% YoY to RMB9.5B and its proportion to total revenue increased to 77.3% in 2024 from 67.9% in 2023.
In 2024, three key innovative drug candidates entered the phase 3 clinical stage for the first time. Hansoh will continue to focus on R&D of innovative drugs and internationalization strategy.

Torikizoku (3193 JP): Coverage Initiation,1H FY07/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY22.2bn, driven by inbound tourism recovery and new restaurant openings.
Operating profit declined 20.5% YoY to JPY1.3bn due to higher SG&A expenses from overseas expansion and wage increases.
Gross profit margin decreased to 69.1%, while SG&A ratio rose to 63.1%, impacting operating profit margin.

BYD (1211): Encouraging 2024 Result, But Close to Our Target After Two Buy Suggestions This Year.

By Ming Lu

We believe the stock’s upside is very limited after two buy rating this year.
In 2024, total revenue grew by 29% and total automobile sales grew by 41%.
The gross margin of automobile improved more than one percentage point.

[PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US, BUY, TP US$146) Review]: A New PDD Focusing on Low Tier and Non-US

By Ying Pan

PDD reported C4Q24 top line 1.1%/(6.1%) vs. our est./cons. and non-GAAP operating income (5.4%)/(5.6%) vs. est./cons.,
PDD rose to prominence by optimizing the value chain built/inherited by Alibaba/eBay in China and Amazon/eBay in US.
As these two “bonuses” coming to an end, PDD must build its own. While growth shall normalize, China low tier cities and global developing markets shall sustain its growth.

Docusign Inc.: Will Its Emphasis On The Expansion of Identity and Access Management (IAM) Pay Off?