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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Medexus Pharmaceuticals, Longeveron , Mira Pharmaceuticals , Windtree Therapeutics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Best Ideas of 2025
  • LGVN: Great Position for Pivotal Year
  • MIRA: Critical Testing Approved
  • Windtree Therapeutics Inc – Sponsored – Impartial – Comprehensive


Best Ideas of 2025

By Richard Howe

  • The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.
  • We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.
  • The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

LGVN: Great Position for Pivotal Year

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
  • The company announced improved revenue and reduced costs in 2024 results.
  • Additionally, the company confirmed it has enough cash on hand to last through 2025 and that testing may be accelerated.

MIRA: Critical Testing Approved

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

Windtree Therapeutics Inc – Sponsored – Impartial – Comprehensive

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • In Sept.
  • 2024, WINT reported positive Phase 2b study results of istaroxime in early CS patients.
  • To position istaroxime for Phase 3 readiness, WINT is launching a small Phase 2 study in the more severe form of CS, SCAI Stage C.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Japan Post Bank, S&P 500 INDEX, Link REIT, Philippine Stock Exchange, Shui On Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders
  • Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences
  • Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT
  • Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Local Brokers Sound Off on 40% IPO Lock-Up—A Major Setup for Offshore Traders

By Sanghyun Park

  • This 40% rule will distort bookbuilding, force down-pricing, choke float post-listing, and amplify volatility.
  • Offshore investors like us benefit most—cheap IPO pricing with no lock-up. Local brokers see this as a giveaway to foreign funds and pushed back hard last Friday.
  • FSS won’t budge—40% lock-up is happening. If issues arise post-implementation, they might adjust later.

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement Updates-Performing Similar to Its Last. Past Large Deals Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
  • JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
  • We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
  • We said don’t be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.

Seeking Stability and Certainty in a World of Chaos: Link REIT

By Jacob Cheng

  • Link REIT, as the largest REIT in Asia, owns a well diversified portfolio which provides visibility and certainty to its future growth
  • Given the stable fundamentals in Hong Kong, we think the REIT is over-penalized by the market, which presents an attractive entry point
  • Valuation is not demanding, we think it is a good opportunity for long-term investor

Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Steady FY24 Sets The Stage For Catalyst-Filled FY25

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) earnings for FY24. Revenues/core earnings declined 1.2%/2.9% YoY. Inclusive of the gain in the stake of PDS, profits were up 56% YoY.
  • The outlook for 2025 is strong, bolstered by the completed acquisition of a 78.3% stake in PDS and a 75% increase in listing maintenance fees, which contribute 18% of revenues.
  • With a FY25 PE of 13.6x, over 10% cash in the market, more than 50% EBITDA, and a 7.4% dividend yield, the stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, the ISM manufacturing index edged down to 50.3 (50.7 e / 50.9 p) in February.
  • This was on account of a contraction in the new orders and employment components, which were offset somewhat by a sharp increase in the prices paid component.
  • Meanwhile, the February (final) S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 (51.2 p), above the preliminary estimate of 51.6.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Macromill, Inc, BYD, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sapporo Holdings, SHEIN, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)
  • CVC Bump Higher (¥1,275) Than Their Final Price (¥1,250), Get GMO to Roll In Their 12.1%.
  • BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Tactical Buy Opportunity in Key Support Zone
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: Base Date for Ranks; Hargreaves Lansdown M&A Change Soon!
  • Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) – The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide
  • Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses
  • Sapporo’s 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism’s 300% Gains
  • It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here
  • Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Just Beginning. Included Affiliates, It’ll Grow Further


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Shares Under Pressure as Rumours Swirl

By Arun George

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) denied a Yomiuri article that the Board has decided not to accept an Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid in favour of the restructuring plan.
  • Despite the Board’s assertions that it is still having constructive discussions with Couche-Tard, its actions suggest otherwise.
  • Couche-Tard remains interested but faces increasing roadblocks. The valuation is undemanding but the news flow is unlikely to support a rerating in the near-term.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$5.3bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2025)

By Brian Freitas


CVC Bump Higher (¥1,275) Than Their Final Price (¥1,250), Get GMO to Roll In Their 12.1%.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the last day of the ¥1,250 “Final Price” CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), CVC has bumped price to ¥1,275 and extended another two weeks.
  • In the process, they got agreement from GMO to tender their 12.1% and GMO gets to reinvest into an 18-19% position in the Bidco. 
  • Investors are now competing against “activists” who aren’t in public markets. 20.6% of the register don’t like the ¥1,250-1,275 price either. But they aren’t selling. They’re re-buying there. You’re not.

BYD (1211 HK) Placement: Tactical Buy Opportunity in Key Support Zone

By Nico Rosti

  • As recently written by Brian Freitas and Sumeet Singh , BYD (1211 HK) is placing new shares on the market at at a price range of HK$333-345/share.
  • The stock today dropped to roughly 340 and it’s oversold WEEKLY according to our models. Buying here, at this price, should bear fruit in coming weeks. More details below.
  • We cannot yet predict the profit targets because our model needs the WEEKLY Close for this week, to do that. We will update this information when it becomes available.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: Base Date for Ranks; Hargreaves Lansdown M&A Change Soon!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • The final rankings will be decided based on the full market cap at the close of trading today (3rd March 2025).
  • Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and three changes for the F250 index in March 2025.

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) – The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
  • Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
  • PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  
  • Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  
  • North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  

Sapporo’s 2025 Potential Holds Limited Upside After Investor Activism’s 300% Gains

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)’s beer, food, and soft drinks businesses are now trading near 19.0x our 2025 OP estimate, suggesting some remaining upside, especially if guidance is revised upward.
  • We believe the company’s 2025 guidance is overly conservative, as Sapporo stands to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
  • If growth momentum persists, we estimate 2025 OP could reach ¥22.3bn, surpassing the current ¥17.5bn guidance, though the 300% upside driven by investor activism has mostly run its course.

It’s Been a Tough Two+ Years for SHEIN & Its Investors, & Things Don’t Get Easier From Here

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Over the last 25 months, there’s been a steady stream of bad news for DTC platform SHEIN
  • The latest challenges: US tariff chaos & Amazon’s launch of its competing platform, Haul
  • Tariff changes & growth of Haul could mean SHEIN IPO gets done at fraction of 2023 valuation

Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Just Beginning. Included Affiliates, It’ll Grow Further

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With the TSE requiring disclosure of rationale regarding parent-subsidiary listings, etc., it is certain that more companies will move to dissolve parent-subsidiary listings.
  • The background for the high TOB premium in Japan was that many companies had stock prices considerably lower than their intrinsic value.
  • There are total of 1,217 companies: 230 listed subsidiaries and 987 equity method affiliates. In addition to this, industry restructuring is also required; there are still numerous opportunities for TOB.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, CK Hutchison Holdings, Sinfonia Technology, Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, OKP Holdings, Titan International , Verbrec , Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US
  • StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics
  • Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem
  • Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
  • 10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction
  • TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.
  • Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record


Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

By Michael Allen

  • Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management. 
  • When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei’s share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value. 
  • Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.

StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics

By David Blennerhassett


Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sinfonia Technology is strategically positioned to benefit from Japan’s rising defence and semiconductor investments, leveraging its expertise in precision motion systems and power electronics.
  • The company holds a leading market share in aerospace and semiconductor handling, underpinned by robust financial performance and a well-defined strategy for future growth.
  • Amid increasing geopolitical tensions, Sinfonia’s integral role in space and defence applications enhances its long-term growth potential, making it a noteworthy player in Japan’s industrial expansion.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
  • This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view. 
  • Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year. 

10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction

By Geoff Howie

  • OKP Holdings reported a 135.4% increase in gross profit for FY2024 to S$58.2 million, with a gross profit margin of 32.0%.
  • The construction and maintenance segments generated revenues of S$114.0 million and S$61.7 million, respectively, in FY2024.
  • OKP’s order book stands at S$600.7 million, supported by a strong balance sheet with S$124.3 million in cash.

TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
  • The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
  • Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
  • The company has released its H1 FY25 results delivering a profitable outcome for the third consecutive period, albeit below RaaS forecasts predominantly due to macro headwinds resulting in lower-than-forecast revenue on the back of project delays.
  • Management cited that client feedback suggests “inflationary pressures, uncertainty prior to election results (both international and domestic) and shortage of qualified engineering resources caused deferrals of several notable prospective project opportunities that were expected to commence in H1 FY2025”.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, CK Hutchison Holdings, Sinfonia Technology, Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, OKP Holdings, Titan International , Verbrec , Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US
  • StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics
  • Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem
  • Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares
  • 10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction
  • TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.
  • Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record


Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

By Michael Allen

  • Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management. 
  • When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei’s share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value. 
  • Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.

StubWorld: Cheung Kong’s Geopolitics

By David Blennerhassett


Sinfonia Technology (6507): A Strategic Asset in Japan’s Defence Ecosystem

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sinfonia Technology is strategically positioned to benefit from Japan’s rising defence and semiconductor investments, leveraging its expertise in precision motion systems and power electronics.
  • The company holds a leading market share in aerospace and semiconductor handling, underpinned by robust financial performance and a well-defined strategy for future growth.
  • Amid increasing geopolitical tensions, Sinfonia’s integral role in space and defence applications enhances its long-term growth potential, making it a noteworthy player in Japan’s industrial expansion.

Hanwha Systems: Expand 3rd Party Allocation Capital Increase Limit from 20% to 30% of Issued Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Hanwha Systems announced that it plans to expand third party allocation capital increase limit from 20% to 30% of issued shares in its articles of incorporation.
  • This plan to significantly increase the amount of capital raise limit sets the stage for a major capital increase by Hanwha Systems in 2025, in our view. 
  • Unlike in 2021 when we were bullish on Hanwha Systems post a large-scale capital raise, we are more cautious on the company’s potential new large scale capital raise this year. 

10 in 10 with OKP Holdings – Charting Growth in Construction

By Geoff Howie

  • OKP Holdings reported a 135.4% increase in gross profit for FY2024 to S$58.2 million, with a gross profit margin of 32.0%.
  • The construction and maintenance segments generated revenues of S$114.0 million and S$61.7 million, respectively, in FY2024.
  • OKP’s order book stands at S$600.7 million, supported by a strong balance sheet with S$124.3 million in cash.

TWI: Titan reports 4th quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. The company also commented on recovery in its markets as well as the possible effects of tariffs.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
  • The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
  • Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

Verbrec Ltd – Discipline a saviour in macro headwind

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
  • The company has released its H1 FY25 results delivering a profitable outcome for the third consecutive period, albeit below RaaS forecasts predominantly due to macro headwinds resulting in lower-than-forecast revenue on the back of project delays.
  • Management cited that client feedback suggests “inflationary pressures, uncertainty prior to election results (both international and domestic) and shortage of qualified engineering resources caused deferrals of several notable prospective project opportunities that were expected to commence in H1 FY2025”.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls A/H Listing – Strong Track Record

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) (ZSIC), a manufacturer of refrigeration and air-conditioning control components, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • ZSIC is a market leader in a number of products, with commanding market share both domestically and globally.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba


Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): $6bn Inflows into Alibaba

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Li Auto, China Mobile and outflows from Tencent.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | President Trump Confirms Tariffs Against Canada and Mexico and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | President Trump Confirms Tariffs Against Canada and Mexico
  • Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech to Follow the US Lower, but Defense Should Have Further to Run
  • Theamtic Report: Rupee Depreciation – The Key Driver Behind FII Selling in India
  • Mat-Chem Notes – Tariff Concerns Proliferate as Geopolitics Remain Center Stage
  • #112 India Insight: Mahindra Expands Sustainably, Ola Electric Struggles, India’s Q3 GDP Grows 6.2%
  • What’s News in Amsterdam
  • Biopharma Week in Review – March 3, 2025
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Tariffs; Uncertainty and Corp. Investment


Ohayo Japan | President Trump Confirms Tariffs Against Canada and Mexico

By Mark Chadwick

  • The sell-off accelerated in the final hour after President Trump confirmed tariffs against Canada and Mexico would take effect Tuesday; Nvidia’s stock fell 8.7%
  • TSMC will invest an additional $100 billion in the US, bringing its total investment to $165 billion, to build three new chip manufacturing facilities
  • Seven & i Holdings will appoint Stephen Hayes Dacus as president, replacing Ryuichi Isaka. 

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Tech to Follow the US Lower, but Defense Should Have Further to Run

By Andrew Jackson

  • NVDA, SMCI and Dell investigated by Singaporean authorities over chip leaks into China.
  • Allegro +15% in the US following on from Sanken limit-up yesterday as ON circles.
  • IHI, MHI, KHI, NEC all higher yesterday but should follow EU defense peers much higher.

Theamtic Report: Rupee Depreciation – The Key Driver Behind FII Selling in India

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • A weak rupee is proving to be a major concern for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), triggering $20.2 billion in outflows from Indian equities and bonds since October 2024
  • The INR has depreciated 2.7% against the US dollar, a trend that has historically coincided with sharp FII exits.
  • This vicious cycle of rupee weakness → FII selling → more rupee weakness is something we have seen before.

Mat-Chem Notes – Tariff Concerns Proliferate as Geopolitics Remain Center Stage

By Water Tower Research

  • Balancing act. As the ag industry is preparing for the planting season, an early look at 2025 expectations by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor offers a mixed bag.
  • On one hand, after a two-year decline, net and cash farm income are expected to increase Y/Y in 2025.
  • On the other hand, the increase will be mostly due to an increase in government payments. 

#112 India Insight: Mahindra Expands Sustainably, Ola Electric Struggles, India’s Q3 GDP Grows 6.2%

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) plans to scale businesses across hospitality, aerospace, and renewables, prioritizing operational excellence over acquisitions for sustainable long-term growth.
  • Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) lays off 1,000+ employees as losses surge 50%, competition intensifies, and market share declines, leading to a 60% stock plunge.
  • India’s Q3 GDP growth hits 6.2%, boosted by Maha Kumbh spending, tax cuts, and strong exports, despite market volatility and fiscal challenges.

What’s News in Amsterdam

By The IDEA!

  • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | bol sells Cycloon to owner of Intrapost Last Friday, Intrapost, Cycloon and Ahold Delahaize’s online platform bol announced that postal company Cycloon to will be bought by Den Hollander Holding B.V, a holding company with the same controlling shareholder as Intrapost: Mr. V.R. Den Hollander. bol and Cycloon are convinced that this is the best step for all parties with a view to the future.
  • Cycloon focuses on sorting and delivering letterbox mail.
  • The sales of these activities to Den Hollander Holding B.V, will bring Cycloon in a better position to benefit from the opportunities on the postal market and to continue to grow.

Biopharma Week in Review – March 3, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles outbreak.
  • The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) selects the flu strains for the fall vaccines, six months in advance to allow for manufacturing.
  • One unvaccinated child died from the Texas measles outbreak and ~20 were others hospitalized, as RFK Jr. called the outbreak not unusual, even though measles was eradicated in the US in 2000. 

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Tariffs; Uncertainty and Corp. Investment

By Water Tower Research

  • Continued policy uncertainty, the federal budget, the Ukraine war, and tariffs were all front and center for the markets this past week.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 0.5% and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 1.8%, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index gained 1.3%.
  • The large-cap indexes fell 0.5% and the R2K declined 0.7%.

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Daily Brief ECM: BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well
  • JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair
  • JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Chery Automobile IPO Preview
  • Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around
  • Goertek Pre-IPO: Too Reliant on Apple
  • PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good


BYD US$5.2bn Placement – Large Only in Absolute Size, past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • BYD (1211 HK) is looking to raise around US$5.2bn via selling 4% additional shares.
  • The company has undertaken a few deals before and they have ended up performing well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

JX Advance Metals IPO – Digestable, but Not Really Attractive

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

By Arun George


JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
  • Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share. 
  • Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO. 

Chery Automobile IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Chery Automobile is getting ready to complete an IPO in Hong Kong in the coming months. The company could raise up to US$1 billion in this IPO.
  • Chery Auto is the second largest automaker in China and the 11th largest auto company globally. The valuation of Chery Auto could be more than 100 billion yuan (US$14 billion).
  • Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.

Pre-IPO We Doctor Holdings – The Good Story of AI May Not Turn Things Around

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We Doctor’s business structure has undergone significant changes. Its positioning has become the AI-enabled healthcare solutions provider. The current business model of We Doctor is To G (To Government) model.
  • Whether We Doctor can replicate Tianjin model in other cities is uncertain because it may not have deep connections/resources in new cities/regions. Profit model of AI+ healthcare isn’t yet clear.
  • We Doctor’s Pre-IPO valuation has reached US$6.7 billion, which is too expensive. Reasonable valuation could be just US$1-2 billion, and should be lower than Ping An Good Doctor.

Goertek Pre-IPO: Too Reliant on Apple

By Nicholas Tan


PegBio 派格生物 IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Good

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
  • We look at the difference between previous filing and current PHIP filing. We see massive delays which don’t position the company well for the listing.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising
  • Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?
  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report


Toyota’s New Shareholder Benefit Program – Either a Bribe for Retail or Odd Advertising

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a new Shareholder Benefit Program (株主優待 or kabunushiyutai). Often these programs are designed to give small unknown companies a way to build shareholder awareness/loyalty. 
  • Toyota, needless to say, is not a small, unknown company building awareness. So this is a bribe or inducement to own shares or get people to use higher value product.
  • This is not a great look, and not great for shareholders. It smells of Toyota trying to buy votes as crossholders sell. But below we look at the math.

Biggest Gray Area in Korea’s Short-Selling Overhaul: What Should TRS Clients Do?

By Sanghyun Park

  • If brokers let shorts exceed borrow, TRS end investors risk getting caught in the legal crossfire.
  • Some TRS players are setting up short-book systems and reg numbers proactively, ensuring brokers share borrow data to stay ahead of any compliance risks.
  • With most illegal shorts tied to TRS, and TRS dominating the market, the FSS will likely introduce TRS-specific rules rather than granting exemptions.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious Blah Blah” (Mar25), 🚨 Read TSE Update Doc 3 🚨

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 161 new CGRs were filed in February 2025. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
  • THE BIG NEWS: The “Document 3” (linked below) of the TSE’s 20th Council Meeting 18 Feb is worth reading carefully. This will set the stage for more takeover fun.

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

By Arun George

  • On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
  • Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.  
  • BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi. 

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Negative EV Play Draws an Opportunistic Offer from Ping An

By Arun George

  • Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preliminary non-binding privatisation offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 (US$7.98 per ADS), a 72.33% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect around net cash and is at a material discount to historical trading ranges. 
  • If a binding proposal materialises, the offer price will not be increased. A high minority participation rate could be an issue for the vote.  

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Fair NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dual-Listed OneConnect Financial Technology (6638 HK/OCFT US), a digital retail banking/commercial banking/ digital insurance play, has announced a non-binding proposal from Ping An, OneConnect’s controlling shareholder with 32.12%.
  • Ping An is offering, by way of a Scheme, HK$2.068/share, or US$7.98/ADS, a 72.33% premium to last close, and a 131.66% premium to the 30-day average. The price is final. 
  • What now? Back in OneConnect’s boards’ court whether to engage or not. Which they should. No competing Offer will emerge.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn’t follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
  • Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

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Daily Brief Credit: Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Melco Resorts and Entertainment’s Q4/24 results remained soft, owing to a decline in the EBITDA margin, and despite GGR outperforming that of peers.
  • In addition, the company’s debt reduction and deleveraging continued to lag peers, as FCF generation was constrained by the soft earnings, ongoing share repurchases, as well as capex requirements (including for the development project in Sri Lanka).

Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • Japfa Comfeed has reported strong FY 2024 results, with profitability surging to the best levels for the past four years, driven by stable poultry prices.
  • The company generated good FCF, which we note positively was mostly used for debt repayment.
  • Leverage was halved on the back of lower debt and higher earnings.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land, Lenovo
  • In the US, January personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.8% revised p), driven by an outsized drop in motor vehicle purchases, as well as decreases in categories such as recreational goods amid the harsh winter weather. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.9% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p).
  • Separately, the PCE inflation data for January was in line with estimates, showing a slight deceleration on a y-o-y basis. The PCE price index rose 2.5% y-o-y (2.5% e / 2.6% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% p) in January, while the core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) advanced 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.9% revised p) and 0.3% mo-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).

New World Development – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • New World Development’s (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak.
  • The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.
  • Moreover, the underlying business performance remained soft, as operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 18% y-o-y.

Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) is a vertically integrated state-owned electricity utility responsible for generating, transmitting and distributing power in Indonesia. The company dominates Indonesia’s upstream power generation sector, and holds a monopolistic position in the country’s electricity transmission and distribution networks. It is the sole retail provider of electricity to end-consumers. PLN is 100% owned by the Indonesian government.


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