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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, CPMC Holdings, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Copper, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps
  • CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update – Will ORG Withdraw Midway?
  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Oct) – GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Samson, T-Gaia, Descente, Platinum
  • Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton
  • Helix Energy Solutions Up for Sale? 4 Reasons It’s A Prime Acquisition Target!
  • Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

Korea Zinc: Breaking Down the Cancel Risk with Specific Legal Provisions for Both Camps

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is unlikely to lower the tender price or cancel the offer due to legal constraints and potential regulatory hurdles, along with compensating investors.
  • Just keep in mind that if you want to participate in MBK’s Korea Zinc offer, you’ll need to submit your bid to secure that compensation safety net.
  • We can’t rule out the second injunction request being accepted on the 21st, leaving Choi’s camp in a tough position with tender offer cancellation risks compared to MBK.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update – Will ORG Withdraw Midway?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Acquiring CPMC at low price is in line with Baosteel’s strategic goals and the new assessment indicators of Baowu Group. This explains why Baosteel didn’t choose to raise its Offer 
  • ORG intends to acquire 100% equity of CPMC. This means state-owned capital needs to withdraw completely from CPMC. So, would China Foods/COFCO (both SOEs) agree to be acquired by ORG?
  • If ORG is “forced to” acquire CPMC due to Baosteel’s low Offer Price, will ORG change mind and choose to withdraw midway?Such “potential unwillingness” from ORG makes the deal “tricky”.

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Oct) – GA Pack, Henlius, Canvest, Samson, T-Gaia, Descente, Platinum

By Arun George

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

  • With China’s slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
  • The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
  • We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).

Helix Energy Solutions Up for Sale? 4 Reasons It’s A Prime Acquisition Target!

By Baptista Research

  • Helix Energy Solutions has emerged as a prime candidate for strategic acquirers and financial sponsors exploring opportunities in the offshore oil and gas industry.
  • The company, which provides specialized services such as well intervention, robotics, and production facilities, is exploring its strategic options, including a potential sale.
  • Helix’s latest quarterly earnings call revealed a significant improvement in revenue and profitability, alongside strong operational performance across its key segments.

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

By Sameer Taneja

  • A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
  • Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
  • While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Cerebras Systems , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher
  • Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.
  • The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. 
  • Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back to Elevated Range; ASE Short Interest Spikes Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Spread Has Returned to Previous Elevated Trading Range
  • UMC: +1.5% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
  • ASE: +4.2% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

By William Keating

  • Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
  • Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to “accelerate AI development and global expansion”
  • G42 “severed its ties” with China in advance of the Microsoft investment

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Tianjin Port, Sinopec Engineering Group H, Tokyo Metro, Zhejiang Expressway Co H, AviChina Industry & Technology H and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – Asset Sale News Designed to Get Shareholder Attention to Future Value
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Trade
  • Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings
  • Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector
  • ECM Weekly (7th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, JD Ind, Swiggy, Lalatech
  • AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

7&I (3382) – Asset Sale News Designed to Get Shareholder Attention to Future Value

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) is currently “in limbo” as the initial Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) (“ACT”) has been rejected, some news is out, and we await earnings/presentations.
  • The news last week was that 7&i might sell down a stake in Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) and could sell its retail/superstore business to PE rather than an IPO.
  • Both selldowns mean the focus on CVS everyone seems to want. That’s good news. And the shares are trading at/below ACT terms which “grossly undervalued” the company. Bullish. 

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
  • There are 8 trading days to implementation and there are a bunch of stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

Tokyo Metro IPO: Steady Tracks with Potential for OP Growth Through Fixed Cost Savings

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) operates 9 out of the 14 subway lines that provides essential public transportation services within the Greater Tokyo area. 
  • Many are unaware of Tokyo Metro’s cost savings, and we believe it could reach ¥110bn OP, exceeding the ¥100bn OP that most currently expect.
  • Even without factoring in the cost savings, the indicative IPO price appears reasonably cheap, as it’s priced near the lower end of peer multiples.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
  • The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE’s market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE’s 1H24 profit.
  • ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.

ECM Weekly (7th Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, China Resources, K Bank, JD Ind, Swiggy, Lalatech

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, the roaring China/HK market led to some refilings, in what is likely to be the start of a tsunami of refilings, if the market momentum sustains. 
  • On the placements front, given the China/HK holidays there weren’t any deals. We instead looked at Bharti Hexacom upcoming lockup expiry.

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK) will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.
  • These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina’s holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. 
  • The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina’s share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Rigaku Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Rigaku IPO Thoughts on Valuation – Decent Upside from the Indicative Range

Rigaku IPO Thoughts on Valuation – Decent Upside from the Indicative Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise US$762m in its Japan IPO.
  • Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies.
  • In our earlier notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and peers. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Hang Seng Index, NIFTY Index, Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd, CIFI Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal
  • EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV’s in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Skew & Smile Unmoved by Equity Selloff – Options Market Ill-Prepared for More
  • Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch
  • Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Vedanta Resources

ESR Group (1821 HK): Inching Closer to a Binding Proposal

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK) provided a positive update on the indicative proposal. The update notes that the consortium has expanded from three to six, representing 39.91% of outstanding shares.
  • The addition of new consortium members is a positive. While the recent market rally is not a dealbreaker, it should give the consortium renewed impetus to launch an acceptable offer.   
  • The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding, which is supported by the potential earnings recovery in a more benign interest rate environment.

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV’s in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

By John Ley

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Skew & Smile Unmoved by Equity Selloff – Options Market Ill-Prepared for More

By Sankalp Singh

  • Nifty50 Monthly IVs post +2.6 vol jump as risk premia gets marked higher on return from 02.10.2024 holiday – China-induced Index selloff & FII Options-buying being the main drivers.
  • Vol Term-Structure has switched from Contango to Backwardation in the front end for Nifty50 options. BankNifty Vol Curve flattens due to 11th hour IV markdown. 
  • Options Market looks ill-prepared for another leg lower in indices – Smile & Skew subdued in spite of IV-jump.

Temasek’s USD1Bn+ Bite into India’s Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP), Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.
  • India’s packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.
  • Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.

Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 07
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Motor and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
  • The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
  • There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief ESG: Will TSE’s Mock Engagement Measures Work? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Will TSE’s Mock Engagement Measures Work?

Will TSE’s Mock Engagement Measures Work?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE’s classification translates into three groups: companies which can independently increase capital profitability, companies which haven’t yet fully implemented plans, and companies which haven’t yet responded to “TSE’s request.”
  • Mock engagements by TSE, which doesn’t have voting rights, will be focused on whether they actually make the company think about management strategies and implement them, thereby increasing corporate value.
  • To help companies effectively implement “TSE’s request,” an idea would be to offer time-limited discount on listing fee paid to TSE by companies that have significantly increased their market capitalization.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (4 Oct 2024): Chinese Property Stimulus; South Korea Macro; NIO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (4 Oct 2024): Chinese Property Stimulus; South Korea Macro; NIO, ByteDance, Airtel, SEC
  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 6)-Strong Yen Impact, Sigma’s Remedial Measures, Mesoblast’s Fund Raise

GEMWeekly (4 Oct 2024): Chinese Property Stimulus; South Korea Macro; NIO, ByteDance, Airtel, SEC

By Wium Malan, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 6)-Strong Yen Impact, Sigma’s Remedial Measures, Mesoblast’s Fund Raise

By Tina Banerjee

  • China’s NMPA aims to redouble efforts to facilitate research and market registration of homegrown innovative drugs, while speeding up the introduction of novel foreign drugs to the domestic market.
  • Since the BoJ interest rate hike in July, the Yen appreciated ~5% to ¥142.74. Considerable amount of appreciation may be dilutive on the overall performance of export-oriented healthcare industry.
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) has offered remedial measure to alleviate preliminary anti-competition concerns raised by ACCC in relation to its proposed merger with CWG.

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (06 Oct) – Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (06 Oct) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, K Bank, ASMPT, Samson, T-Gaia
  • Lalatech IPO | Review of H124 Financials & Operating Stats | Strike While the Iron Is Hot-Ish?

Weekly Deals Digest (06 Oct) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, K Bank, ASMPT, Samson, T-Gaia

By Arun George

Lalatech IPO | Review of H124 Financials & Operating Stats | Strike While the Iron Is Hot-Ish?

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In a new filing with HKEX, we can see Lalatech’s revenue growth slow
  • The company’s grip on CoR loosened, but OpEx growth in H1 was minimal
  • Given improving market conditions, we believe Lalatech may finally sell shares

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Oct 06
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Google Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: AI Investments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Google Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: AI Investments, Antitrust Battles, and Advertising in Focus
  • CATL Chairman Sees Recycled Lithium as the Future of EV-Battery Making
  • TCL Acquires LG Display’s LCD Plants in Guangzhou as Industry Consolidates
  • NVIDIA’s “Insane” Blackwell Demand & The New NVLM Model – Can It Redefine AI Computing in 2025?
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) – WuXi to Sell Assets, Be Rational on China CXO, Sihuan Underperform
  • IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Sturdy Performance; Core Markets Remain Strong: Expansion Plans on Track
  • Why Reservoir Media May Be Significantly Undervalued – Irenic Capital’s Bold Take!
  • Clear Secure Inc.: How Will It Deal With The Challenge of Scaling Infrastructure Reliably? – Major Drivers
  • Broadridge Financial Solutions: These Are The 7 Most Critical Factors Driving Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts
  • Endava plc: Partnership With OpenAI

Google Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: AI Investments, Antitrust Battles, and Advertising in Focus

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Google’s AI infrastructure spending remains a priority, with capex exceeding $12 billion per quarter, highlighting aggressive expansion in cloud and AI-driven services.
  • Competition from Meta and TikTok has pressured Google’s advertising, especially YouTube. Q3 performance will gauge its ability to maintain dominance in digital ads.
  • Ongoing antitrust trials pose a long-term risk to Google’s business operations, particularly in search and advertising. Potential regulatory action could impact future growth strategies.

CATL Chairman Sees Recycled Lithium as the Future of EV-Battery Making

By Caixin Global

  • Half of all lithium-ion batteries could be made with recycled lithium by 2042, according to the founder of power cell giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) (300750.SZ +11.06%), who presented a vision of an eco-friendlier industry at a recent event.

  • Speaking at the World New Energy Vehicles Congress on Friday, Zeng Yuqun, also CATL’s chairman, highlighted the critical role power cells can play in driving the EV industry toward a zero-carbon future, saying that the sustainable development of the industry hinges on the use of recycled battery raw materials.

  • CATL’s battery recycling business has already taken shape, with a current annual capacity to process 270,000 tons of used batteries, Zeng said.

TCL Acquires LG Display’s LCD Plants in Guangzhou as Industry Consolidates

By Caixin Global

  • TCL Technology Group Corp.
  • (000100.SZ +7.51%), a leading Chinese electronics maker, has agreed to pay 10.8 billion yuan ($1.54 billion) to acquire LG’s two display factories in Guangzhou, as Chinese manufacturers strengthen their dominance in the liquid crystal displays (LCD).
  • TCL China Star Optoelectronics Technology (TCL CSOT), a subsidiary of TCL Technology, will acquire 80% of LG Display China and the entire stake of LG Display Guangzhou.

NVIDIA’s “Insane” Blackwell Demand & The New NVLM Model – Can It Redefine AI Computing in 2025?

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is on the brink of yet another significant leap in AI computing with its latest Blackwell GPU, as CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized in an interview with CNBC.
  • Describing the demand as “insane,” Huang noted that Blackwell is already in full production and on track to be released to data centers for AI applications, with consumer availability slated for 2025.
  • The company’s growth, particularly in its Data Center division, has been fueled by AI workloads, driven by GPU computing, networking platforms, and accelerated AI demand.

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.6) – WuXi to Sell Assets, Be Rational on China CXO, Sihuan Underperform

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Investors always have expectations for Chinese CXOs, believing that BIOSECURE Act will not pass and Chinese CXOs will bottom out. We can understand this, but we have to be rational.
  • Selling the operations that have been negatively affected is a reasonable choice, which helps stabilize WuXi’s business/market expectations. But this does not necessarily mean the geopolitical conflict will end here.
  • Without persuasive long-term logic, share price of Sihuan would still underperform. Despite strong performance of Chinese stocks, we advise investors to do short-term trading on Sihuan Pharmaceutical Hldgs (460 HK).

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Sturdy Performance; Core Markets Remain Strong: Expansion Plans on Track

By Tina Banerjee

  • IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) remains consistent in delivering double-digit growth across key metrics. 2Q24 revenue increased 17%, while EBITDA grew at a faster pace of 22%.
  • Singapore, Turkiye & Europe, India, Malaysia show strength with favorable patient mix, higher occupancy, and higher revenue per in-patient.
  • IHH is on track to add ~4,000 beds (+33% capacity) by 2028. The company is acquiring Island Hospital, a 600-bed hospital in Penang.

Why Reservoir Media May Be Significantly Undervalued – Irenic Capital’s Bold Take!

By Baptista Research

  • Reservoir Media, a company known for its engagement with talent and diverse music assets, delivered mixed results in its first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
  • Like many companies in the music industry, it is navigating a complex landscape influenced by digital transformations and global market trends.
  • On the positive side, Reservoir Media experienced notable growth in its Music Publishing segment, showing a 15% increase in revenue.

Clear Secure Inc.: How Will It Deal With The Challenge of Scaling Infrastructure Reliably? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Clear Secure remains steadfast in its commitment to grow its member base, enhance the customer experience, and improve its financial stability, with several significant developments detailed in the fiscal second quarter 2024 earnings call.
  • The company reported robust growth, adding 2.3 million new members, and highlighted its innovative projects, like the implementation of new technologies to make travel and identity verification smoother and more integrated.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Broadridge Financial Solutions: These Are The 7 Most Critical Factors Driving Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Broadridge Financial Solutions has displayed robust financial performance and maintained consistent growth in its earnings, backed by a strategy focused on transforming and digitizing the financial services industry.
  • The company’s fiscal year 2024 concluded with a significant uplift in closed sales and improved earnings per share (EPS), demonstrating resilience and agility in a fluctuating market environment.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Endava plc: Partnership With OpenAI

By Baptista Research

  • Endava, a global IT services provider, recently reported its earnings for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2024.
  • Amid a challenging economic climate, the company underscored its strategic maneuvers and repositioning efforts, all while navigating noticeable headwinds in revenue growth, client demand fluctuations, and transformative industry shifts influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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