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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 09
0

Daily Brief ESG: Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings

Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason for slower reforming Growth Market seems to weigh on consideration for companies undergoing IPO review and coordination with stakeholders in IPO business. The investor’s perspective is missing here.
  • Growth market listed companies that do not receive overseas investor engagement have more difficulty than prime market companies in raising their market capitalization to meet listing retention criteria.
  • Behind the failure to grow after IPOs are many managers who view IPO as place to cash in their equity rather than place to obtain the capital needed for growth.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally on US-UK Trade Deal
  • Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E
  • #143 India Insight: DoT Clears Starlink, NSE Eyes Power Trade, IndusInd Staff Under Probe
  • India-UK FTA: Early Thoughts on Trade and Opportunity
  • Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements

Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s Electric Two-Wheeler (E2W) market is expected to surge from 5.1% penetration in FY2024 to 35-40% by FY2031, growing at a CAGR of 41-44%.
  • The E2W sector’s growth is driven by government support, rising fuel costs, air pollution concerns, and a young, tech-savvy population, making it a key player in India’s sustainable mobility transition.
  • E2Ws are set to dominate India’s two-wheeler market, offering consumers cost-effective, eco-friendly alternatives, reshaping mobility and providing new investment opportunities in the automotive and energy sectors.

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally on US-UK Trade Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rose after President Trump announced a US-UK trade deal and expressed optimism for upcoming China trade talks, fuelling hopes of easing global trade tensions
  • NTT will acquire the remaining 42% of NTT DATA’s shares through a tender offer worth approximately 2,370 billion yen, taking the company private
  • Nintendo forecasts selling 15 million units of its new Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E

By Andrew Jackson

  • UK deal and anticipation of a positive outcome to China talks lifting positioning into risk assets.
  • Quantum computing names flying after D-wave numbers may lift Socionext.
  • Nintendo numbers obviously conservative, while Ibiden points to a bigger NVDA product mix + index upside.

#143 India Insight: DoT Clears Starlink, NSE Eyes Power Trade, IndusInd Staff Under Probe

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Starlink receives DoT approval for satellite internet in India, partnering with Jio and Airtel, targeting rural and remote areas.
  • NSE receives Sebi’s in-principle approval to launch electricity derivatives. Discussions on contract structure and tenure are ongoing.
  • Grant Thornton identifies 25 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) staff involved in accounting lapses. Some may be retained, others face termination.

India-UK FTA: Early Thoughts on Trade and Opportunity

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India-UK FTA negotiations officially concluded May 6, 2025, securing tariff-free UK market access for many Indian goods.
  • Eliminating UK duties boosts Indian textile competitiveness significantly and improves mobility for service professionals, driving trade growth.
  • Increases optimism for Indian textile, IT, and export-focused stocks as the FTA unlocks substantial new opportunities.

Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Indian cement industry saw strong demand in Q4 FY25, with industry volume growth of 4% YoY and leading players reporting double-digit sales growth.
  • Demand in April 2025 was weak across most regions due to severe heatwaves and labor shortages, slowing construction activity significantly.
  • Cement demand is expected to grow at 7–8% in FY26, driven by infrastructure projects and housing, with major players expanding capacity.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
  • [Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price
  • [Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
  • Swire Pac (19 HK): Thai Beverage Spin-Off
  • NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200
  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP): MitCorp (8058 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY6,340
  • [Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio
  • Korea’s FSC Is Rolling Out the Legal Framework for Fractional Share Trading, Starting September 30
  • What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?

[Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
  • There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
  • This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances. 

[Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) was supposed to announce earnings at 2pm JST. They didn’t. Someone (or people) decided that meant there might be a takeover. There was.
  • The stock popped nearly 15% to ¥6,200, paused, was flat for an hour, then popped again, closing at ¥6,150/share. Post-close, we get a deal at ¥6,340/share.  
  • A disappointing process. At ¥6,240, the Special Committee said it was “far from a standard that takes into account the interests of TargetCo’s minority shareholders.” At ¥6,340, they dealt. Aaaargh.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
  • We are now 40% higher than the initial bid and the best bid is approaching the top end of Valuation Agent’s top-of-DCF-range prices. There may be a bit more. Maybe.
  • The question now is only whether Minebea responds. If it does, there is a little juice left, but if not, that’s it. It should get done.

Swire Pac (19 HK): Thai Beverage Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is proposing the spin-off and separate listing on the SET of non-wholly-owned ThaiNamthip Corporation Limited, a Coca-Cola franchise operator in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos.
  • On the 30th September, Swire completed the 55.7% acquisition for THB42,615.7mn (HK$9,470.1mn). ThaiNamthip concurrently sought to acquire a 30% stake in Swire Coca-Cola’s operations in Vietnam and Cambodia for HK$2,114.6mn.
  • At the time of the acquisition, ThaiNamthip had an extrapolative price tag of ~HK$17bn. Should the proposed spin-off complete, ThaiNamthip will remain a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Swire.

NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000

By Arun George

  • NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,000 per share, a 33.7% premium to the last close.
  • The Nikkei earlier reported on the offer. The offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. 
  • The offer could be considered light as it is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY6,200 per share, a 12.7% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY5,500 offer. 
  • There are factors supporting Minebea again outbidding Yageo and Minebea withdrawing its offer. Minebea is in a predicament as Yageo has established that it wants Shibaura at any cost.
  • The most likely scenario is that Minebea withdraws its tender and the Board switches to a neutral opinion due to its ongoing non-price-related concerns. 

Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP): MitCorp (8058 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY6,340

By Arun George

  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) at JPY6,340 per share, a 17.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is materially below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • The light offer resulted from an unusually long process, with twelve rounds of proposals. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
  • Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
  • Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

Korea’s FSC Is Rolling Out the Legal Framework for Fractional Share Trading, Starting September 30

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Capital Markets Act in place, real-time quotes, intraday fills, and orderbook trading for fractional shares are possible—opening the door for Korea’s Robinhood moment.
  • Fractional share trading in Korea is still minimal at 0.1% of volume, but real-time infrastructure from brokers could drive significant flow and growth.
  • It will deepen sentiment-driven flows and cause real-time price discovery shifts, opening up new trading opportunities.

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Post-Demerger, Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) continues with Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility, focusing on core segments like automation, electrification, and rail transport.
  • The company is getting significant orders in each segment with strong tailwind across all segment.
  • Siemens Limited’s remaining business is projected to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by strong order backlogs and improved margins.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief ECM: Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation
  • EToro IPO Valuation: First-Day IPO Pop Is Possible, But The Stock May Struggle To Hold Gains
  • D’Alba Global IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.
  • Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.
  • Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.

EToro IPO Valuation: First-Day IPO Pop Is Possible, But The Stock May Struggle To Hold Gains

By Andrei Zakharov

  • EToro Group Ltd., a social trading platform, sets terms for upcoming IPO in the United States. The online broker offers 10M Class A shares at range of $46.00-$50.00 per share.
  • At the midpoint of price range, eToro would command a market value of ~$4B on a fully-diluted basis. The selling shareholders offer 5M Class A shares.
  • BlackRock has indicated a non-binding interest in purchasing up to $100M worth of eToro shares. However, these shares will not be subject to a lock-up agreement.

D’Alba Global IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • The IPO price of d’Alba Global has been finalized at 66,300 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
  • The demand ratio of the IPO was 1,141 to 1. A 98.4% of the IPO shares applied thought that the value of the company is 66,300 won or more.
  • Our base case valuation of d’Alba Global is a target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the IPO price of 66,300 won.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock

By Akshat Shah

  • Niva Bupa Health Insurance (1226871D IN) (Niva Bupa) raised around US$260m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • Niva Bupa is a health insurance firm. Its portfolio consists of health (including retail and group), personal accident, and travel insurance.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics, possible placement and updates since our last note.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?
  • Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update
  • HK Inno. N (195940 KS): Promising US Trial Result for K-CAB Raises Hope; Starts 2025 on Strong Note
  • Cleveland-Cliffs: Weak Q1 Results, Restructuring Underway, Valuations Reflect Deep Discount
  • F&F: A Key Beneficiary of Explosive Popularity of Jung Hoo Lee (Grandson of the Wind) In the MLB
  • Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis
  • [Earnings Review] Occidental Beat EPS Expectations on Strong Oil & Gas Performance
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Focusing on Strategic Equity Holdings as BoJ Likely to Defer Rate Hikes
  • CXW: 1Q25 Highlights
  • Melco Holdings (6676 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?

By Patrick Liao

Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with local business owners and our channels in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir with an objective to understand the current sentiment on the ground. 
  • Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital, remains strategically vital in the current conflict as a military hub and political flashpoint between India and Pakistan.
  • Local business owners are hopeful that the escalating conflict and the media attention surrounding it will ease by the 10th of May.

HK Inno. N (195940 KS): Promising US Trial Result for K-CAB Raises Hope; Starts 2025 on Strong Note

By Tina Banerjee

  • HK inno.N (195940 KS) announced positive topline result from the U.S. Phase 3 trial evaluating K-CAB in gastroesophageal reflux disease. U.S. filing is expected in 4Q25.
  • HK inno.N has reported strong 1Q25 result, with double-digit growth across all key parameters. Revenue increased 16% YoY, while operating profit grew at a faster pace of 47% YoY.
  • The U.S. filing and approval are the major catalysts. However, HK inno has other growth engines as well. Innovative pipeline is also progressing, ensuring long-term growth prospect.

Cleveland-Cliffs: Weak Q1 Results, Restructuring Underway, Valuations Reflect Deep Discount

By Rahul Jain

  • EBITDA loss of $174M, net loss of $483M, driven by weak auto demand, high costs, and continuing drag from AMNS slab contract; EBITDA/ton fell sharply to –$42.
  • Idling six facilities, exiting loss-making operations, $300M cost savings targeted in H2; slab contract expiry to add ~$500M EBITDA annually from 2026.
  • Deep value: Trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), 7.1x P/E, 0.55x P/B, and $653 EV/ton of full steelmaking capacity, reflecting deep cyclical pessimism.

F&F: A Key Beneficiary of Explosive Popularity of Jung Hoo Lee (Grandson of the Wind) In the MLB

By Douglas Kim

  • F&F is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding popularity of Jung Hoo Lee in the MLB (Major League Baseball) in the United States.
  • The surging popularity of Jung Hoo Lee could lead to higher demand for F&F’s core products (MLB baseball caps and apparel products), which could lead to higher sales and profits.
  • F&F recently provided new shareholder return plans including providing at least 25% of net profit as dividends/buybacks/cancellations (including buyback at least 60 billion won from 2025 to 2027).

Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Panache DigiLife Limited is an ICT & IoT devices design, manufacturing, distribution and services company.  
  • Company’s accounting policy for non-provisioning of old receivables seems to be aggressive. Poor capital allocation resulted in fragile financial health. 
  • Concentration risk with sales from single customer accounting for 55% of revenue to be major areas of concern.

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beat EPS Expectations on Strong Oil & Gas Performance

By Suhas Reddy

  • Occidental’s Q1 2025 revenue rose by 13.9% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Its net income rose by 6.7% YoY, and its EPS beat estimates by 12.1%.
  • Occidental’s earnings beat was fueled by robust oil and gas segment growth, underpinned by stronger price realisations that offset volume softness and reinforced its upstream momentum.
  • Occidental closed USD 1.3 billion in asset sales in Q1 and repaid USD 2.3 billion in debt YTD, underscoring its continued focus on debt reduction.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Focusing on Strategic Equity Holdings as BoJ Likely to Defer Rate Hikes

By Victor Galliano

  • BoJ’s lower GDP growth forecasts add weight to the rate hike deferral; we focus on big-cap banks that have more in the tank than high gearing to rising benchmark rates
  • An increasingly important factor, in our view, is the share of strategic equity holdings relative to market capitalization; Kyoto is top on this metric, followed by Shizuoka, Resona and Mizuho
  • With the lack of the rate hike catalyst in the near term, we remove SMFG from the buy list and would look to lighten holdings selectively in other Japanese banks

CXW: 1Q25 Highlights

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)

Melco Holdings (6676 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased by 1.8% YoY to JPY143.2bn, with IT business revenue up 13.6% and Food business down 43.9%.
  • Operating profit increased by 242.7% YoY to JPY8.9bn, driven by IT segment’s OPM rise and cost ratio decline.
  • Dividend per share for FY03/25 remained JPY120, with a total payout ratio of 117.7% including treasury stock repurchase.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Macro: Don’t Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Don’t Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON!
  • BoE Closer To Slowing Cuts
  • The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!
  • The Polycrisis Era (2025–2028): Navigating a World of Overlapping Disruptions
  • CX Daily: China Unveils Monetary Support to Stem U.S. Tariff Impact
  • Malaysia: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 3.0%) in May-25
  • Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in May-25
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 9 May 2025
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push
  • Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in May-25

Don’t Swim Naked: TIME TO PUT YOUR SHORTS ON!

By David Mudd

  • The bear market rally in the US stock market continues as investors try to justify the tariffication of global trade and ignore its economic consequences. A FREE LUNCH.
  • Soft and hard economic indicators in the US are falling, with some alarming numbers in the travel industry.
  • US companies face potential blowback from Chinese consumers that provide 7% of S&P revenue. 

BoE Closer To Slowing Cuts

By Phil Rush

  • The shockingly divided MPC’s offsetting votes weren’t the most hawkish signal alongside its 25bp rate cut. Most of the five backing it were only recently convinced.
  • Maintained guidance for a gradual and careful approach not only disappoints dovish hopes, but signals a 5:2:2 bias between a slower, constant and faster pace of cuts.
  • We still expect this gradualism to help the BoE resist cutting in August (and June) while waiting for dovish evidence that never emerges, making this the last cut.

The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • There’s plenty of geopolitical tension to unpack this week, with three major developments over just the past few days: 1) an Indian attack on Pakistan, 2) new events in the Middle East, and 3) the launch of U.S.–China trade talks.
  • India attacked Pakistan in the Kashmir region overnight, and Pakistan swiftly retaliated.

The Polycrisis Era (2025–2028): Navigating a World of Overlapping Disruptions

By Albert Maass

  • Geopolitical fragmentation accelerates, replacing global integration with regional blocs and bilateral arrangements.
  • Resilience supplants efficiency as the organising principle for economic planning, supply chains and governance.
  • Complexity and discontinuity are here to stay. Success may belong not to those who predict the future, but to those who prepare for a range of plausible futures.

CX Daily: China Unveils Monetary Support to Stem U.S. Tariff Impact

By Caixin Global

  • Autos /In Depth: U.S. tariffs rattle global auto industry
  • China-U.S. /: China, U.S. to hold trade talks in Switzerland this week
  • Law /: China revises infectious disease law to better protect individual rights

Malaysia: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 3.0%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bank Negara Malaysia held its official policy rate at 3%, in line with consensus, maintaining a supportive stance amid resilient domestic demand and heightened global trade tensions. The decision reflects concern over downside risks from external uncertainties and weaker global sentiment.
  • Headline and core inflation remained subdued in Q1 2025, at 1.5% and 1.9% respectively, with the outlook deemed manageable due to easing global cost pressures and limited domestic demand-pull inflation. Inflation risks remain externally driven, linked to commodity markets and trade policies.
  • The ringgit continues to be influenced by external volatility, though Malaysia’s structural reforms and narrowing interest rate differentials lend support. Future rate decisions will depend on the trajectory of inflation and the balance of risks to growth amid an uncertain global environment.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Riksbank held the policy rate at 2.25%, in line with expectations, citing a well-balanced monetary stance amid elevated inflation and softening growth prospects.
  • Although inflation remains somewhat high, the Riksbank views this as temporary and now considers downside risks to inflation more likely than upside ones, suggesting a potential easing bias.
  • External uncertainty, driven by US trade policy and geopolitical tensions, plus falling household confidence domestically, are key factors likely to influence the interest rate path.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 9 May 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • China’s shift to consumption-led growth would boost domestic services, not global imports, challenging Western expectations.

  • Most Asian economies showed contracting manufacturing activity in April, reflecting broader global slowdown signals.

  • Trade data is distorted by pre-tariff stockpiling; focus should remain on fixed asset investment trends for clarity.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push

By Pranay Yadav

  • Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. 
  • Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. 
  • China’s factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.5% in May, consistent with consensus and March guidance, citing persistent inflation and heightened global uncertainty as reasons to maintain a restrictive stance.
  • Although inflation has eased, underlying pressures remain strong, with CPI-ATE stable at 3.4% and a weaker krone raising imported goods prices, complicating the timing of future easing.
  • The Committee continues to signal a likely rate cut in 2025 but flagged increased trade barriers and divergent global developments as factors that could shift the policy trajectory in either direction.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau
  • In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”, adding that “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”.
  • Still, officials noted that although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued expanding at a solid pace and labour market conditions have remained strong. Meanwhile, inflation is “somewhat elevated”.

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Crypto: ZKsync & Elastic Network’s Q1 Wrapped: Ecosystem & Development Highlights and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ZKsync & Elastic Network’s Q1 Wrapped: Ecosystem & Development Highlights

ZKsync & Elastic Network’s Q1 Wrapped: Ecosystem & Development Highlights

By Delphi Digital

  • Institutional adoption accelerates with Deutsche Bank, UBS PoC, WonderFi, and Tradable building compliant solutions on ZKsyn9
  • ZKsync is the second-largest blockchain for tokenized RWAs, capturing over 27% market share, trailing only Ethereum
  • ZKsync Era dominates ZK rollups, leading in TVS, proof volume, and user activity

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May 09
0

Most Read: Makino Milling Machine Co, NTT Data Corp, Laopu Gold, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Mitsubishi Shokuhin, Shibaura Electronics, East Buy Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings
  • NTT (9432) To Overpay To Take Over NTT Data (9613) Subsidiary?
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
  • CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
  • [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
  • [Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price
  • [Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation
  • NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000
  • East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June

Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) – Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

By Travis Lundy

  • Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. 
  • A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in “legally binding bids.” No news on those yet, but we have a month.
  • Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec’s bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .

NTT (9432) To Overpay To Take Over NTT Data (9613) Subsidiary?

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning, the Nikkei says NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) has decided, 5 years after taking Docomo private, to buy out minorities in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). 
  • NTT owns 58%. The article suggests a “30-40% premium” (¥3,900-4,200) “is likely”, with the parent spending ¥2-3trln (¥3,380-5,060) on the deal. The numbers are a bit all over the place.
  • It will go limit up today to ¥3,492. A deal should be announced today after the close when NTT Data reports earnings. There’s a cool index event too.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

By Brian Freitas

  • Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May. 
  • The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year. 

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
  • The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
  • Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.

[Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
  • There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
  • This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances. 

[Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) was supposed to announce earnings at 2pm JST. They didn’t. Someone (or people) decided that meant there might be a takeover. There was.
  • The stock popped nearly 15% to ¥6,200, paused, was flat for an hour, then popped again, closing at ¥6,150/share. Post-close, we get a deal at ¥6,340/share.  
  • A disappointing process. At ¥6,240, the Special Committee said it was “far from a standard that takes into account the interests of TargetCo’s minority shareholders.” At ¥6,340, they dealt. Aaaargh.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
  • We are now 40% higher than the initial bid and the best bid is approaching the top end of Valuation Agent’s top-of-DCF-range prices. There may be a bit more. Maybe.
  • The question now is only whether Minebea responds. If it does, there is a little juice left, but if not, that’s it. It should get done.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.
  • Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.
  • Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.

NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000

By Arun George

  • NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,000 per share, a 33.7% premium to the last close.
  • The Nikkei earlier reported on the offer. The offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. 
  • The offer could be considered light as it is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June

By Brian Freitas

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May 09
0

Daily Brief Australia: Domain Holdings Australia , Fluence Corp, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Domain Enters Into Scheme With CoStar
  • Fluence Corp Ltd – Business re-based and set for growth
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push

Domain Enters Into Scheme With CoStar

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th March 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)  announced a $4.43/share NBIO from Costar, and subsequently entered into an exclusivity and process deed.
  • Domain has now entered into a Scheme with CoStar on the same terms. Including any dividends paid. Curiously, terms were not declared “best & final” as stated in the NBIO.
  • Apart from the standard Scheme vote – expected mid-August, this needs FIRB to sign off. Potential implementation late-August. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.1% shareholder) is supportive.

Fluence Corp Ltd – Business re-based and set for growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
  • The company has released its quarterly 4C cash-flow statement and a Q1FY25 financial and operating update (December year-end).
  • The Q1 result showed a continuation of momentum from Q4FY24 and sets the company up for the remainder of the year.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/18] Policy Easing and Trade Diplomacy: China’s Coordinated Economic Push

By Pranay Yadav

  • Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. 
  • Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. 
  • China’s factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.

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