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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Australia: Ingenia Communities, Pro Medicus Ltd, Sayona Mining, BirdDog Technology and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow
  • MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes
  • BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted

By Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

By Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has initiated coverage of video software and hardware technology group BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) with a base case valuation of $0.27/share, representing 335% potential upside to the current share price.
  • A challenging FY24 is now behind the business and the causes of the problems have been addressed and resolved, in our view.
  • BDT invested heavily in R&D through the downturn with the investment program set to yield results on a strong revenue uptick from the release of multiple new products across several categories.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Rotem Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
  • Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
  • The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief United States: Evergreen Marine Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
  • But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
  • Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they’re unlikely to strike

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief China: Midea Group Co Ltd A, AAC Technologies Holdings, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, PDD Holdings, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Taste Gourmet and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way
  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac
  • Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind
  • ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024

Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Midea Group(000333 CH)  has increased the shares on offer in Hong Kong by 15% to 565.9 million shares, priced at the top end of the range at HKD54.8 per share.
  • With strong investor interest, the company may exercise an over allotment option that could take the deal size to USD 4.6 billion.
  • Midea’s Hong Kong pricing reflects a nearly 21% discount to its A-share closing price, compared to the average 33% discount for dual-listed companies between Hong Kong and Shanghai or Shenzhen.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, we see one ADD and one DEL. If this index change takes place, there could be US$538mn capping flows one-way.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac

By Arun George

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.
  • The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.
  • If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea’s performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.

ECM Weekly (16th Sep 2024) – Midea, Bajaj Housing, 99 Speed, P N Gadgil, Hozon, Trial, NextDC, Via

By Sumeet Singh

Weekly Consumer Tales: Cross Border Comm Crisis-Midea Upsized-LG Elecs’ Upside-Platform Workers Law

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Temu, (owned by PDD US), and Shein might need to rethink their US strategies if a new rule stops overseas shipments of tariffed products from bypassing US customs duty.
  • Singapore passed a groundbreaking law last week to protect gig workers. Other countries may follow suit and this could adversely impact margins. Take note: Meituan (3690 HK) , Zomato (ZOMATO IN)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The P/B multiple of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK) has pulled back to 0.8x now, from 1.3x three months ago. The risk-reward payoff has improved.
  • Historically, there is no long-term correlation between oil prices and share prices. Hence, we should not be overfocused on the recent pullback in oil prices.
  • Although the market consensus is high, FY24 should still see growth. The 3Q24 VLCC spot rate is 27.4% higher YoY, potentially boosting quarterly results and sustaining a high FY24 yield. 

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2024

By Sameer Taneja

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief India: Bajaj Housing Finance, Adaro Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Valuation Might Get Stretched from Demand Overflow
  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Valuation Might Get Stretched from Demand Overflow

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) raised around US$800m in its India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Vedanta Resources, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan released revisions to the list (Japanese, English) of company classifications under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA)
  • It appears 72 names were newly upgraded to “Core” (“3”), 21 newly listed companies (since the last list in Nov 2021) were labeled “3”, and six lost their Type3 designation. 
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles Friday suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really. 

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Sep 16
0

Most Read: Korea Zinc, Evolution Mining, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Seven & I Holdings, Midea Group Co Ltd A, K Bank, AAC Technologies Holdings, Ingenia Communities, Hyundai Rotem Company, China Traditional Chinese Medicine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MBK Partners and Jang Family Partner to Control Korea Zinc + Tender Offer of 14.6% of Korea Zinc
  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn
  • MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn
  • The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard
  • Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis
  • K Bank IPO Preview
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way
  • MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted
  • Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat
  • Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac

MBK Partners and Jang Family Partner to Control Korea Zinc + Tender Offer of 14.6% of Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 12 September, Maekyung Business Daily reported that MBK Partners will become the largest shareholder of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) along with Young Poong (000670 KS). 
  • MBK Partners, along with Youngpoong and advisor Jang Hyung-jin, also plans to conduct a tender offer of 14.6% stake in Korea Zinc. 
  • The tender offer price for Korea Zinc is 660,000 won per share, which is 18.7% higher than the closing price on 12 September.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

By Brian Freitas

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

By Brian Freitas

The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan released revisions to the list (Japanese, English) of company classifications under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA)
  • It appears 72 names were newly upgraded to “Core” (“3”), 21 newly listed companies (since the last list in Nov 2021) were labeled “3”, and six lost their Type3 designation. 
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles Friday suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really. 

Midea Group: Offer Upsized at Top Tier. Updated Valuation Analysis

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Midea Group(000333 CH)  has increased the shares on offer in Hong Kong by 15% to 565.9 million shares, priced at the top end of the range at HKD54.8 per share.
  • With strong investor interest, the company may exercise an over allotment option that could take the deal size to USD 4.6 billion.
  • Midea’s Hong Kong pricing reflects a nearly 21% discount to its A-share closing price, compared to the average 33% discount for dual-listed companies between Hong Kong and Shanghai or Shenzhen.

K Bank IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • K Bank finally provided its IPO prospectus which includes more details of the IPO than what the company already announced about the IPO several days ago. 
  • Bankers used KakaoBank, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, and Bancorp Inc as comps. Average PBR of 2.56x was used to value K Bank. 
  • Some investors will question the inclusion of overseas comps including SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Bancorp in the valuation of K Bank.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, we see one ADD and one DEL. If this index change takes place, there could be US$538mn capping flows one-way.

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Ingenia Communities Deleted

By Brian Freitas

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
  • Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
  • The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Sep) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Raysum, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Dyna-Mac

By Arun George

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: AAC Technologies Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, BirdDog Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events
  • BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec 24: One Change Possible; US$538 Capping Flows One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • At present, we see one ADD and one DEL. If this index change takes place, there could be US$538mn capping flows one-way.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Returning to Higher Trading Range? ASE’s Two Upcoming Events

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.6% Premium; Returning to the 15 – 20% Trading Range?
  • UMC: +0.5% Premium; Near the Middle of the Historical Trading Range
  • ASE: +5.2% Premium; Participating in Two Investor Conferences in Next Two Weeks

BirdDog Technology Limited – A refocussed opportunity

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has initiated coverage of video software and hardware technology group BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) with a base case valuation of $0.27/share, representing 335% potential upside to the current share price.
  • A challenging FY24 is now behind the business and the causes of the problems have been addressed and resolved, in our view.
  • BDT invested heavily in R&D through the downturn with the investment program set to yield results on a strong revenue uptick from the release of multiple new products across several categories.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Rotem Company, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Evergreen Marine Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now
  • A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

By Sanghyun Park

  • The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
  • Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
  • The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Better Safety Margin Now

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The P/B multiple of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (H) (1138 HK) has pulled back to 0.8x now, from 1.3x three months ago. The risk-reward payoff has improved.
  • Historically, there is no long-term correlation between oil prices and share prices. Hence, we should not be overfocused on the recent pullback in oil prices.
  • Although the market consensus is high, FY24 should still see growth. The 3Q24 VLCC spot rate is 27.4% higher YoY, potentially boosting quarterly results and sustaining a high FY24 yield. 

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
  • But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
  • Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they’re unlikely to strike

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free