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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: China Blues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Blues, Bitcoin Booms!
  • Whither the Yen?
  • Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100
  • Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices


China Blues, Bitcoin Booms!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles remain a major obstacle to faster GDP growth and confirm that the country is quickly reaching its debt limits.
  • A lack of liquidity has kept Chinese stocks from rallying even though central authorities have deployed a massive amount of targeted stimulus measures
  • My new Bitcoin price projection is between USD 224K and USD 288K, two to seven years from now. 

Whither the Yen?

By Rikki Malik

  • The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place
  • The JPY’s only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates
  • Japan’s inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

By At Any Rate

  • Russia has pledged to cut oil output to 9 million barrels per day by June, potentially causing Brent oil prices to rise to $90 in April and above $100 in the future
  • The US has the option to release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate the impact of high oil prices
  • SPR inventories currently cover 188 days of net import demand for crude oil, suggesting that the reserve may not need to be as large as it once was and could be used for funding infrastructure and federal spending priorities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices

By Odd Lots

  • Javier discusses high olive oil and chocolate prices due to peak crop arrival and increased demand
  • Tracy shares her favorite chocolates, including Hershey’s and Milka, and discusses expensive Swiss chocolates
  • The surge in cocoa prices is attributed to increased global chocolate consumption and crop failures in West Africa, leading to comparisons with Nvidia’s performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hon Hai Precision Industry, Bharti Hexacom, Ibotta , Mastercard, Genesys Intl Corp, Astera Labs , ByteDance, Micron Technology, Okinawa Cellular Telephone and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO – Unexciting and at a Half-Decent Discount
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Ibotta IPO Preview: High-Growth Cashback Unicorn With Robust AI-Powered Capabilities
  • Mastering the World of Payments
  • Genesys International Corp Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale
  • Rivals Vie to Fill Market Void as U.S. Business Ban Looms Over TikTok
  • Micron Reaffirms China Expansion Plan as Government Welcomes Foreign Businesses
  • Okinawa Cellular (9436) – Dominant Local Market Leader Enhancing Shareholder Value


Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai shares have hit a new all-time high and have just risen past our target price of NT$155, surging after investors flocked to Hon Hai on AI news.
  • Hon Hai showcased two key technologies at Nvidia’s GTC conference last week: Nvidia-based AI servers with liquid cooling systems and an AI autonomous driving controller using Nvidia’s Orin X processor.
  • Hon Hai’s sharp rally appears to have partly been caused by a short squeeze; While we like the long-term fundamentals and increased TP to NT$170, Hon Hai appears near-term overbought.

Bharti Hexacom IPO – Unexciting and at a Half-Decent Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bharti Hexacom is looking to raise up to US$513m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valutions.

Bharti Hexacom IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Ibotta IPO Preview: High-Growth Cashback Unicorn With Robust AI-Powered Capabilities

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Ibotta, a cashback rewards platform provider, files to list IPO on NYSE. The Denver-based technology company was backed by VC investors, GGV Capital, Walmart and Koch Disruptive Technologies.
  • Ibotta is a trusted and well-known brand in the cashback space in the United States, and means “I-bought-a”. The company is led by its Founder & CEO, Bryan Leach.
  • Considering Ibotta’s strong and profitable growth, low penetration of the addressable market opportunity, and potential international expansion, they should have a successful IPO.

Mastering the World of Payments

By MAGELLAN – IN THE KNOW

  • The electronic financial transactions industry is expanding, with a focus on personalization, the gig economy, and fraud prevention
  • Mastercard is well positioned to benefit from the shift away from cash and towards digital payments
  • Magellan’s portfolio manager Alyssa DeMarco discusses Mastercard’s growth and innovation with Devin Core, highlighting the company’s evolution over the past decade and its strategic focus on diversification and global expansion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Genesys International Corp Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Genesys Intl Corp (GENE IN) or (GICL) is engaged in Geospatial services.
  • The balance sheet of the company is surrounded by impairments; in the last few years, the company has impaired a major chunk of its intangibles, investments, goodwill and advances
  • Other forensic insights include doubts on revenue recognition, struggle with the cash flows and earnings quality, recon issues and treatment of few line items

Astera Labs: Early Lock-Up Expiry Is Coming, ~$450M Worth of Shares Will Be Available For Sale

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.
  • Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.
  • According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.

Rivals Vie to Fill Market Void as U.S. Business Ban Looms Over TikTok

By Caixin Global

  • The looming threat of a business ban on TikTok in the United States is driving millions of users and advertisers to seek alternatives to the popular short video platform, presenting a significant opportunity for rivals such as YouTube and Meta.

  • Data released by Sensor Tower in March indicates that, over the past 90 days, nearly 94% of TikTok users in the U.S. have begun using Alphabet’s YouTube.

  • Additionally, 80% of TikTok users have shifted their attention to Instagram, 68% to Facebook, and 55% to Snapchat.


Micron Reaffirms China Expansion Plan as Government Welcomes Foreign Businesses

By Caixin Global

  • U.S. chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. expects deeper cooperation with the Chinese government as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost foreign investment, its CEO said at a forum in the capital Monday.
  • Speaking at the China Development Forum, Sanjay Mehrotra hailed the recent release by the State Council of a 24-point plan designed to promote high-level opening-up and attract foreign investment as the latest show of China’s determination to improve its business environment for foreign companies.
  • Micron cannot grow its business in China without government support, Mehrotra added, while reaffirming the company’s commitment to expand its business in the world’s second-largest economy, where it has a presence in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Xi’an.

Okinawa Cellular (9436) – Dominant Local Market Leader Enhancing Shareholder Value

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • 50% mobile market share with scope to improve shareholder returns – Okinawa Cellular is the operating company for parent KDDI’s (9433) mobile and FTTH brands in Japan’s southernmost prefecture, with a dominant 50% mobile carrier market share.
  • The company benefits from the parent’s centralized R&D initiatives limiting its costs, and economies of scale through the joint procurement of handsets.
  • With sector-leading operating margins and a strong track record of free cash flow generation, management actively allocates capital to shareholder returns, resulting in an estimated total shareholder payout ratio of 127.8% for FY3/24. 

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Daily Brief Utilities: RENOVA Inc, Talen Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Mar 2024 Estimates and Another Trade Reco
  • TLNE: Greater Value, PT to $120


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Mar 2024 Estimates and Another Trade Reco

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents, adjusted every year in August.
  • We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month for the next rebal, based on most recent trading data. 
  • Every month we provide trade suggestions. The last three months have seen market-neutral returns of +3.0%, +6.5%, +3.2% respectively for the one-month periods. A new trade is suggested below.

TLNE: Greater Value, PT to $120

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TLNE announced the sale of three power plants in Texas for a higher figure than we were expecting. TLNE is selling 1.7GW of power in Texas for $785 million
  • The Texas power plants decrease TLNE’s footprint to thirteen sites and a total of 10.7 GW owned capacity.
  • After the Texas assets are sold TLNE would have thirteen power plants mostly in Pennsylvania with several across other states. Three of which are minority ownerships.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, Asian Paints, Kum Yang , Semen Indonesia (Gresik), Crude Oil, Arrow Exploration Corp, TMC the metals co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CPMC (906 HK): Shares Retrace As Clock Ticks On ORG’s Bid
  • Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Hold Your Guns
  • Kum Yang: Auditor Raises Flags on Viability as a Going Concern + Chairman Ryu Could Sell Shares
  • Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) – Solidifying Indonesia’s Future Path
  • Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. – Reserves Additions.
  • TMC the Metals Company, Inc. – Pivotal Year Ahead


CPMC (906 HK): Shares Retrace As Clock Ticks On ORG’s Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 6th Dec 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from SASAC and the National Council for Social Security Fund of China (NCSSF). 
  • A decent premium (32.1%), presumed rubber-stamped regulatory approvals, and a 50% acceptance condition with 29.7% in the bag – this Offer looked done. Then ORG announced a possible competing proposal.
  • Nearly four months have elapsed and details on ORG’s Offer remain unknown. SASAC/NCSSF chip away at reg approvals. Shares are down 2.6% from its recent peak. That makes sense.

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Hold Your Guns

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • There is a lot of excitement and uncertainty about the paint sector especially Asian Paints’ leadership in the broader market and among analysts.
  • We interact with a couple of paint dealers across Delhi and Dimapur to gauge the sentiment on the ground.
  • While there is no denying that Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) poses a credible threat it might be too early to write off the market leader Asian Paints (APNT IN)

Kum Yang: Auditor Raises Flags on Viability as a Going Concern + Chairman Ryu Could Sell Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 28 March, the external auditor of Kum Yang (Samil PriceWaterhouseCoopers) raised warnings about the viability of Kum Yang as a going concern. 
  • The auditor also mentioned increasing probability of Chairman Ryu of Kum Yang potentially selling a portion of his shares to raise further capital.
  • It is RARE for an auditor to raise concerns about a company’s viability of the entity as a going concern. This is likely to negatively impact Kum Yang’s share price. 

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) – Solidifying Indonesia’s Future Path

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) released a positive set of results in FY2023 despite a difficult operating environment and intense competition through increasing efficiencies linked to sustainability at the same time. 
  • The company continues to work on improving production efficiency as well as distribution through greater digitalisation and is benefiting from synergies from Semen Baturaja.
  • Increasing government infrastructure spending will help to drive growth in demand for bulk cement, especially from the new capital, with Semen Indonesia being a prime beneficiary. Valuations look attractive. 

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

By Suhas Reddy

  • As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.
  • Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.
  • OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.

Arrow Exploration Corp. – Reserves Additions.

By Auctus Advisors

  • YE23 2P reserves were estimated at 11.8 mmboe, including 0.7 mmboe for Canada and 4.6 mmboe non-core, leaving 6.5 mmboe for the company’s core Colombian assets.
  • This compares with 2.1 mmbbl at YE23 plus 3.9 mmbbl for Carrizales Norte reported in September for a total of 6 mmbbl.
  • Adding back 0.6 mmbbl (net) produced at Tapir in 2023 suggests that Arrow has added 1.1 mmbbl at its core Colombian assets since the latest reserve reports (September 2023 for Carrizales Norte and YE23 for the other assets).

TMC the Metals Company, Inc. – Pivotal Year Ahead

By Water Tower Research

  • 4Q23 results highlight careful cash management.
  • TMC reported 4Q23 results, including a significant decline in Y/Y Exportation and Evaluation expenses, which benefited from the non-recurrence of a 2022 pilot project collection campaign, as well as lower SG&A expenses ($6.5 million versus $7 million in the year-ago period).
  • Use of cash for operating activities also declined from $19.8 million to $15.2 million and overall quarterly operating loss was narrowed from $111.3 million in 4Q22 to $33.2 million in the reported quarter, demonstrating management’s careful use of cash and a steady SG&A burn rate.

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Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Urban-Gro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures
  • UGRO: 4Q Review: Stuff Happens; Reiterate Buy & PT after Tough 4Q


Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Valuation controversy arises from comparing HD Hyundai Marine Solution, a ship AS specialist, with diverse global companies, leading to a target market cap of ₩5T.
  • HD KSOE’s inclusion worsens the valuation controversy. Applying HD KSOE’s last year PER without adjusting for a significant one-off profit seems to inflate HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s PER.
  • Currently, major local IPO funds see HD Hyundai Marine’s valuation nearing ₩4T as excessive, despite the industry’s revival and potential growth in eco-friendly ship conversions, impacting the upcoming bookbuilding process.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise up to US$555m in its Korean IPO.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

UGRO: 4Q Review: Stuff Happens; Reiterate Buy & PT after Tough 4Q

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $8 price target, but lowering our 2024 projections after urban-gro reported disappointing 4Q23 (December) results, as the company had three material commercial contracts shift from late 4Q into 2024, obscuring what would have been a strong end to the year.
  • While the contracts are expected to be materially completed in 2024, management has decided to be highly conservative in their guidance and rebuild credibility going forward.
  • Given the current valuation, we believe investors are discounting the urban-gro business model and the potential for the company to register positive EBITDA. While we understand investor skepticism, we believe CEO Brad Nattrass and his team have aggressively cut costs and positioned urban-gro to surprise low Street expectations.

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Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Urban-Gro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures
  • UGRO: 4Q Review: Stuff Happens; Reiterate Buy & PT after Tough 4Q


Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Valuation controversy arises from comparing HD Hyundai Marine Solution, a ship AS specialist, with diverse global companies, leading to a target market cap of ₩5T.
  • HD KSOE’s inclusion worsens the valuation controversy. Applying HD KSOE’s last year PER without adjusting for a significant one-off profit seems to inflate HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s PER.
  • Currently, major local IPO funds see HD Hyundai Marine’s valuation nearing ₩4T as excessive, despite the industry’s revival and potential growth in eco-friendly ship conversions, impacting the upcoming bookbuilding process.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise up to US$555m in its Korean IPO.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

UGRO: 4Q Review: Stuff Happens; Reiterate Buy & PT after Tough 4Q

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $8 price target, but lowering our 2024 projections after urban-gro reported disappointing 4Q23 (December) results, as the company had three material commercial contracts shift from late 4Q into 2024, obscuring what would have been a strong end to the year.
  • While the contracts are expected to be materially completed in 2024, management has decided to be highly conservative in their guidance and rebuild credibility going forward.
  • Given the current valuation, we believe investors are discounting the urban-gro business model and the potential for the company to register positive EBITDA. While we understand investor skepticism, we believe CEO Brad Nattrass and his team have aggressively cut costs and positioned urban-gro to surprise low Street expectations.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital’s Scheme Offer at HK$18.80


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital’s Scheme Offer at HK$18.80

By Arun George

  • Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from GL Capital at HK$18.80 per share, a 33.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$14.04 on 15 March).
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The Bank of China, which holds a blocking stake, should be supportive.
  • The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.

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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank , Citic Securities (A), Hywin Holdings, Alpha Bank AE, China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Stands Out from the Other Asian Digital Banks
  • Citic Securities Downsizes IPO Team as Business Slows
  • Hywin [HYW] – Business Transformation Update
  • Alpha Bank – Full steam ahead
  • China Jinmao – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) Stands Out from the Other Asian Digital Banks

By Victor Galliano

  • Despite Rakuten Bank shares’ re-rating, we believe it remains attractive, with its strong balance sheet and its low cost base with undemanding valuations compared to its Asian digital banking peers
  • Rakuten Bank is well positioned to benefit from the negative interest rate policy exit in Japan, with its low LDR, high cash balances, growing loan book and healthy capital ratio
  • It continues to leverage off the Rakuten Group eco-system, as a low cost source of new customers; nearly a third of clients use Rakuten Bank as their primary Japanese bank

Citic Securities Downsizes IPO Team as Business Slows

By Caixin Global

  • Citic Securities, China’s leading brokerage, has shifted over 100 investment bankers from initial public offering (IPO) roles to other divisions, in a major overhaul to address slowing business amid the stock market downturn.
  • Most of the employees affected were transferred to debt financing business while the rest were relocated to mergers and acquisitions, and investment departments, a person close to the matter said.
  • “The adjustment is an internal optimization of personnel, involving a broad range of investment banking positions,” said the person.

Hywin [HYW] – Business Transformation Update

By Evaluate Research

  • Hywin [NASDAQ:  HYW] announced a broad business transformation plan in response to overall market and regulatory conditions in China.
  • The stock price, under considerable pressure since November last year, has clearly anticipated some of this uncertainty.
  • As part of its transformation, Hywin will shift is wealth management product distribution away from asset-backed products.

Alpha Bank – Full steam ahead

By Edison Investment Research

Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little impact from deposit migration and strong cost control. Alpha delivered a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9% in FY23, beating its own upgraded target of >11.5%. The increased profitability coupled with a robust capital position (fully loaded common equity tier 1 (FL CET1) of 14.3%) have enabled a proposed dividend of €0.05 a share, subject to regulatory approval.


China Jinmao – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

China Jinmao has released FY 2023 numbers that were weak in our view, as the company reported a lower top line and reduced margins. However, the earnings decline was in line with expectations, as it reflected industry trends and the company had issued a profit warning in March 2024.

Negatively, leverage further deteriorated to a very weak level. In addition, we are concerned about whether Jinmao would be able to maintain access to domestic bond markets. This is as the company has seemingly stopped issuing domestic notes since July 2023. Instead, it issued perpetual bonds to immediate parent Sinochem HK in December. Going forward, Jinmao may have to increase its reliance on Sinochem for financing.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Koito Manufacturing, Multi Bintang Indonesia, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI), The Gym Group PLC, Guess? Inc, Dalata Hotel Group PLC, S4 Capital and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Koito Mfg (7276) – New Medium Term Plan, BIG Buyback, Even Bigger Shareholder Returns Planned
  • Multi Bintang (MLBI) Q4 2023: Growth Resumes, 7% Div Yield On the Cards, With >70% ROCE
  • PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) – Headwinds Dissipating
  • Gym Group – The power of marginal gains
  • GES: Snapping the Store: Raising the Fashion Bar for Spring; Reiterate Buy
  • Dalata Hotel – A strong hand
  • S4 Capital – Extension of recovery horizon


Koito Mfg (7276) – New Medium Term Plan, BIG Buyback, Even Bigger Shareholder Returns Planned

By Travis Lundy

  • Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) is a $4bn marketcap (~$6bn sales) Toyota Group auto parts manufacturer specialising in lighting parts, famous for being a T.Boone Pickens target in the 1980s.
  • As Toyota Group’s leaders restructure their cross-holdings and try to get to 1.0x PBR and a high enough ROE to sustain it, capital efficiency is on the block. 
  • Koito today announced a revised Mid-Term Management Plan, a change in KPIs (higher), a large shareholder return plan, and a large buyback. As always, the fun is in the details.

Multi Bintang (MLBI) Q4 2023: Growth Resumes, 7% Div Yield On the Cards, With >70% ROCE

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) reported its FY23 earnings with revenues/profits up 6.7%/15% YoY.  Q4 FY23 revenues and profits were up 5.6%/17% YoY. 
  • OPM (%) expanded 180 bps from 40.6% to 42.4%, and NPAT margins 240 bps to 32.1%. We believe that trends will continue to improve in 2024.
  • At its board meeting, we expect the company to declare a full-year FY23 dividend of 500 Rph/share ( implying a 7% yield). The H123 dividend was 110 Rph/share.

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) – Headwinds Dissipating

By Angus Mackintosh

  • PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.
  • 4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. 
  • ROTI has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.

Gym Group – The power of marginal gains

By Edison Investment Research

Gym Group has accompanied confirmation of FY23 profit resilience and continued buoyancy (like-for-like revenue up 12% in the first two months of 2024) with a clear commitment ‘to accelerate, not reinvent the wheel.’ The latter is telling with new senior management endorsing Gym Group’s sweet spot as a low-cost operator in the long-term growth market of health and fitness. Its confidence in material scope for enhanced pricing and member acquisition and retention is complemented by expansion targeted at sites with perceived 30% return on invested capital (ROIC) potential (10 to 12 openings in 2024 with c 50 over three years), although the typical two-year profit maturation profile means no quick earnings fix. Improving finances (1.7x leverage) should allow this as well as increasingly important technology investment.


GES: Snapping the Store: Raising the Fashion Bar for Spring; Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?
  • stores in the Metro NYC area and Long Island.
  • We believe, with Spring now beginning to fully flow into stores, Guess?

Dalata Hotel – A strong hand

By Edison Investment Research

Dalata’s FY23 deployment of €156m in high-profile hotel opportunities in London, Amsterdam and Edinburgh as well as the newly announced proposed redevelopment at Manchester Airport show the scale and nature of its accelerating growth strategy, enabled by ‘considerable firepower’ (FY23 net debt to EBITDA after rent of just 1.3x). While the focus on cities in the UK and Continental Europe with favourable dynamics, for example London, is self-evidently appealing, there is reassurance in the success of 2022 openings in the UK and a capital-light approach on the Continent. Dalata’s trading agility (like-for-like FY23 EBITDAR margin in line with 2019 despite high cost inflation) and maturing estate (H223 adjusted EBITDA up 20%) bode well for 2024 after a market-led slow start in Dublin.


S4 Capital – Extension of recovery horizon

By Edison Investment Research

S4 Capital had a difficult FY23, as flagged, with reduced client confidence and spend, particularly from those clients in the tech sector, and on larger transformation projects. Management is cautious in the short term, with no substantive changes likely in H124, but sees conditions likely to improve in H224 as economic pressures ease. The group’s longer-term prospects should be buoyed by its positioning across data and digital marketing and, in particular, in incorporating AI into hyper-personalisation at scale. The share price is down 77% y-o-y, -22% year-to-date, reflecting the history and short-term prospects rather than a medium-term view.


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Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Kum Yang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures
  • Kum Yang: Auditor Raises Flags on Viability as a Going Concern + Chairman Ryu Could Sell Shares


Local Color on HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s Excessive IPO Valuation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Valuation controversy arises from comparing HD Hyundai Marine Solution, a ship AS specialist, with diverse global companies, leading to a target market cap of ₩5T.
  • HD KSOE’s inclusion worsens the valuation controversy. Applying HD KSOE’s last year PER without adjusting for a significant one-off profit seems to inflate HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s PER.
  • Currently, major local IPO funds see HD Hyundai Marine’s valuation nearing ₩4T as excessive, despite the industry’s revival and potential growth in eco-friendly ship conversions, impacting the upcoming bookbuilding process.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Strong Profitability Growth but Lacking in Disclosures

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise up to US$555m in its Korean IPO.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Kum Yang: Auditor Raises Flags on Viability as a Going Concern + Chairman Ryu Could Sell Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 28 March, the external auditor of Kum Yang (Samil PriceWaterhouseCoopers) raised warnings about the viability of Kum Yang as a going concern. 
  • The auditor also mentioned increasing probability of Chairman Ryu of Kum Yang potentially selling a portion of his shares to raise further capital.
  • It is RARE for an auditor to raise concerns about a company’s viability of the entity as a going concern. This is likely to negatively impact Kum Yang’s share price. 

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