Category

Daily Briefs

Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Screening for GEMs: March 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Screening for GEMs: March 2024

Screening for GEMs: March 2024

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief ESG: Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Natura – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Natura’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with the Environmental and Social pillars, while Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Medco Energi’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company’s Environmental and Social scores are “Adequate”, while Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy

By Cam Hui

  • If you are concerned about the YOLO and FOMO frenzy in the stock market, you may wish to consider gold and gold mining stocks as refuges.
  • The technical pattern for gold is constructive, but not unabashedly bullish. 
  • Gold miners appear to be washed out against gold and present the best opportunity for gains in the next 6–12 months.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief ECM: Trial Holdings IPO – Not Wholly Convinced but a Strong Market Should Help and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Trial Holdings IPO – Not Wholly Convinced but a Strong Market Should Help
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Small Secondary Offering as Banks Sell, More Later
  • Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Reddit IPO: The Right Time To Go Public At A Reasonable Valuation
  • Macrotech Developers Placement – Large Deal, and Not Cheap Per Se
  • Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis: $1B+ Revenue and Profitable Company in 2024

Trial Holdings IPO – Not Wholly Convinced but a Strong Market Should Help

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise up to US$259m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO range.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Small Secondary Offering as Banks Sell, More Later

By Travis Lundy

  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) is a small specialised trading company (rubber, polymers, elastomers, etc). Niche, decent profitability/margins, highish ROE.
  • Banks in the MUFG and SMBC family are selling. Norinchukin is selling a bit too. 
  • This is small in size but big in impact. 20% of Max RWF. 50d ADV. Unlike other recent, larger, offerings, this has no flow mitigants. But it’s cheap.

Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Reddit plans to price its IPO between $31 to $34 a share, which would suggest equity value of US$6.0 billion to US$6.5 billion on a fully diluted basis.
  • Our base case valuation of Reddit is implied market cap of US$7.9 billion or implied price of US$41.2 per share. 
  • Given the moderate upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Positive view of the Reddit IPO. 

Reddit IPO: The Right Time To Go Public At A Reasonable Valuation

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Reddit, an American social news aggregation, content rating, and forum social network, filed to go public. The company plans to trade on the NYSE under the ticker “RDDT”.
  • Reddit was founded in 2005 by Steven Huffman, Aaron Swartz and Alexis Ohanian. The company is forecasted to surpass $1B in total revenue in 2024.
  • They chose the right time to go public. I have a positive view of the upcoming Reddit IPO and looking forward to seeing them trade as a public company.

Macrotech Developers Placement – Large Deal, and Not Cheap Per Se

By Clarence Chu

  • Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN) is looking to raise around US$398m via a QIP.
  • The deal here will be a well flagged one with LODHA’s board having announced its intention of raising up to INR50bn via a QIP earlier in Jan 2024.
  • That being said, while representing just 3% of LODHA’s shares outstanding, the deal would be a large one to digest at 30 days of its three month ADV.

Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis: $1B+ Revenue and Profitable Company in 2024

By Andrei Zakharov

  • According to Pitchbook and their S-1, Reddit has raised ~$1.5B in equity financing. Their last private round, a Series F led by Fidelity in August 2021, was around ~$10B valuation.
  • I derive a target valuation for Reddit using a ~8x EV/Revenue multiple on my 2024 estimates. The multiple represents a top-range multiple of the peer group.
  • I arrived at my ~$9.6B target valuation, which implies 50% upside to indicative IPO valuation at the midpoint. I expect Reddit will trade above their last round valuation of $10B.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): OCBC Vs DBS – Vast Differences in Yields on Financial Assets and New Risk in past Four Years and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • OCBC Vs DBS – Vast Differences in Yields on Financial Assets and New Risk in past Four Years
  • Ohayo Japan | S&P Ends Lower Ahead of Powell Testimony
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Focus on Three Earnings Reports This Week
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 1, 2024
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 1, 2024

OCBC Vs DBS – Vast Differences in Yields on Financial Assets and New Risk in past Four Years

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The yields on financial assets at DBS is now 3.92% for FY23. This compares with 4.64% for OCBC. 
  • The change in yields on financial assets at DBS in the past year is 160bps compared with 194bps for OCBC.
  • From FY19 to FY23 OCBC has only added SGD70bn to its total financial assets or +19%. DBS added SGD169bn or +28% over this period.

Ohayo Japan | S&P Ends Lower Ahead of Powell Testimony

By Mark Chadwick

  • S&P ends lower as Apple receives a 1.8 billion euro antitrust fine from the EU; APPL -2%
  • Crypto stocks lead gainers as Bitcoin surges +7% to $67,000. Super Micro Computer jumps +18% on AI 
  • China is anticipated to set its annual growth rate for 2024 at “around 5%” during the upcoming National People’s Congress

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Focus on Three Earnings Reports This Week

By Water Tower Research

  • After a quiet week in the sector, three earnings reports will get the attention of investors in the furniture/furnishings space this week.
  • Culp Inc. will report its 3QFY24 results after the close on Wednesday, March 6 and host an investor call at 11:00 am on Thursday, March 7.
  • We expect EPS of a loss of $0.22 on revenue of $60 million. Consensus is EPS of a loss of $0.19 on revenue of $59.5 million.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 1, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The US cannabis MSOS ETF fell 7.80% last week, its third loss in the last four weeks.
  • Earnings this week were relatively strong, but sentiment around federal reform may be driving short-term prices.
  • Despite the sell- off, MSOS had $1.8 million in inflows. The global YOLO ETF held up better, losing 1.89% over the last five sessions.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 1, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
  • Energy Technology (12.7% of the index) was up by 3.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (53.5% of the index) was up by 1.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (27.9% of index) was up 11.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: ENG, AMY, TPCS, HYLN, VIEW, XOS, AMYZF, SMR, EVA, PMET,

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Credit: Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greenko Energy Holdings, Tata Motors ADR

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts’ (MLCO) results remained soft in Q4 and FY 2023. GGR from the company’s Macau properties improved sequentially in Q4, but continued to underperform peers relative to the 2019 levels. Moreover, EBITDA from City of Dreams (COD) Manila was flat, while earnings from COD Mediterranean fell due to conflict in the Middle East.

MLCO’s weaker earnings recovery meant that the pace of its net debt reduction in FY 2023 (-7% y-o-y) has lagged those of peers such as Sands China (-19%), MGM China (-23%) and Wynn Macau (-10%). That said, from a credit perspective, we are less concerned about the softer earnings performance of Wynn Macau and Melco Resorts (vs. for MGM China and Sands China), as we believe these companies will prioritise using FCF generation to gradually deleverage. In our opinion, the slower pace of deleveraging for Wynn Macau and Melco Resorts may delay the resumption of dividend payments, but is unlikely to affect the companies’ refinancing abilities.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greenko Energy Holdings, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What
  • Genex (GNX AU): J-Power’s Indicative Offer
  • TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger
  • May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials
  • Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May
  • Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied
  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL

Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • The changes to the Nikkei 225 Average for the March 2024 Review were announced today after the close. A little earlier than I expected. 
  • Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; Takara Hldgs, Sumi Osaka Cement, Pacific Metals OUT. Nitori PAF increase. US$4bn+ to trade one way on 29Mar close. One interesting surprise. 
  • Overall more impactful than it looks. And it changes the front-end arithmetic on Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There may be fun on the DELETEs.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

By Brian Freitas

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Something Is Brewing, but Nobody Knows Quite What

By Arun George

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP)’s shares rose 4.8% due to a Nikkan Kogyo article that states that JIC will start the tender within the month due to concluding negotiations with SAMR. 
  • Caution is warranted as JSR has not provided a customary timeline update, no confirmatory disclosure from SAMR and JSR’s response to SUNY RF’s claims are yet to be filed.
  • Based on current information, there are five possible tender scenarios. In the worst case, the downside risk on a deal break should be muted due to the market re-rating. 

Genex (GNX AU): J-Power’s Indicative Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in July 2022, Aussie renewable energy player Genex (GNX AU) announced an A$0.23/share NBIO from Skip Enterprises and Stonepeak, subsequently bumped to A$0.25/share, and confirmatory due diligence provided.
  • Negotiations ceased in December that year.  As of today, Scott Farquhar’s Skip Enterprises continues to hold a 19.9% stake in Genex. 
  • This morning, Genex announced an A$0.275/share NBIO from Electric Power Development (9513 JP) (J-Power), by way of a Scheme. A concurrent off-market A$0.27/share is in place.

TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 2 January, TDCX (TDCX US), a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, announced it had received a preliminary non-binding proposal from Laurent Junique to be acquired at $6.60/ADS.  
  • On the 1st March, TDCX entered in a definitive agreement by way of a short form merger at US$7.20/ADS, a 48% premium to undisturbed.
  • As Laurent Junique holds 98.4% of the voting power, there is no shareholder vote on the merger. This is done. The Offer should close in the 2Q24.  

May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

  • May 17th, all eyes on EcoPro Materials for a buzzed-about lockup release. BRV Capital holds 24.5% stake, 17M shares. Lockup ends May 16th; they’re free to sell off without constraints.
  • Apparently, they’re eager to cash out, with a profit margin around 30 times and 7 years invested. Many at Yeouido bet they’ll sell out once the lockup’s over.
  • We might start building a shorting position with futures targeting this lockup release from April 22nd. This could stir up some weird backwardation, which could give us another trading opportunity.

Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the strong likelihood of potential selling of EcoPro Materials by BRV Capital Management (the second largest shareholder of Ecopro Materials with a 24.7% stake) in May 2024. 
  • BRV Capital Management’s stake in Ecopro Materials is currently worth 3.1 trillion won. In the past seven years, BRV Capital Management has invested about 93 billion won in Ecopro Materials. 
  • On 4 March, Ecopro Materials announced it has entered into a contract to supply precursor to a U.S. auto company. There is some local speculation that this could be Tesla. 

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

By Arun George

  • Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
  • If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip’s stake.
  • The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme’s completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced the pre-condition for Sukanto Tanoto’s HK$23.50 voluntary offer is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March. 
  • The offeror has received irrevocables from Essity (ESSITYB SS) and Mr Li, representing 72.62% of outstanding shares, which satisfies the 50% minimum acceptance condition.
  • Including irrevocables, the offeror currently represents 80.31% of outstanding shares. The offeror intends to exercise compulsory acquisition rights. The tight 0.4% gross spread reflects a done deal. 

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) should replace Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index at the close on 27 March.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 13.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 4.2bn.
  • The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
  • China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop
  • [NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials
  • Portfolio Update: February 2024
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth
  • [Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?
  • Director filings and buyback momentum return
  • China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up
  • ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.

  • At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.

  • Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.
  • Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.
  • Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials

By Ying Pan

  • NetEase reported C4Q23 top line, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (4.8%), (16%) and (9.0%) vs. our estimates, and (3.6%), (12%) and (6.8%) vs. consensus， mainly due to..
  • The positive, however, is the acceleration of launch of <Naraka Mobile> by 1-2 quarters. Our estimate of the gross billing remains the same;
  • We remain optimistic about the upcoming pipeline, and we raise our TP to US$122. Our new TP implies 15.4X PE, which is 12% above current price.

Portfolio Update: February 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Recently, a friend of mine asked me why I own positions in Markel and Brookfield, as they do not align with my typical investment style of small niche companies trading at attractive free cash flow yields. 
  • I consider both companies as alternatives to index funds, benefiting from the expertise of two exceptional capital allocators, Tom Gayner and Bruce Flatt, at no additional cost.
  • Over time, if my investment process proves itself as sound, the positions in Markel and Brookfield should naturally decrease in size.

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although people acknowledged BeiGene’s performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven. 
  • BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.
  • If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
  • Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
  • Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

By Ying Pan

  • Vipshop reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit in-line, 6.3% and 7.0% vs. our estimate, and 4.5%, 20.5%, and 23.9%, vs. consensus, respectively;
  • We expect the two themes of “live for the moment” consumption and consumption downgrade to persist in 2024. The former drives apparel spending, while the latter drives consumers to Vipshop
  • We maintain BUY and raise the TP to US$ 20.4, implying 7.7x CY24 non-GAAP P/E, and 4.9x CY24 EV/Earnings.

Director filings and buyback momentum return

By Geoff Howie

  • Director filings and buyback momentum return Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engg) led the buyback consideration tally, repurchasing 500,000 shares at an average price of S$3.97 each on Feb 29.
  • On Feb 26, LHT Holdings managing director Yap Mui Kee acquired 61,000 shares at an average price of S$1.05 per share.

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) has an impressive 2024 CNY with the volume and revenue of its tourist attractions increased by 46% to 123% YoY.
  • Relative to 2019 CNY, most businesses have fully recovered. 1H23 earnings is the highest since 1H20 and the market may have underestimated 2H23, providing upside surprise potential. 
  • The share price is still some 30% below the peak in late-2021 when earnings have yet to recover. Also, its net cash now equals 19% of the share price. 

ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported its Q4 2023/FY23 numbers with revenues down 46%/35% YoY and profits down 58%/69% YoY on declining coal prices (113 USD/ton Vs 192 USD/ton) .
  • We expect spot coal prices to remain range-bound between 130-150 USD/ton, resulting in company profits ranging between 350-500 mn USD (4x-6x PE range) with dividend yield ranging from 11%-15%.
  • The company also has a cash buffer of 850 million USD, roughly 45% of the current market capitalization. 

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last week was notably positive for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which both experienced impressive gains.
  • Bitcoin’s price has surged to $65,000, marking an increase of over 25%, while Ethereum has increased to $3,510, up by approximately 15%.
  • This puts Bitcoin close to its highest ever price, just below $69,000.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Macro: February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo & Grab, BFIN’s Rising, and Astra Intl’s Oversold
  • ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise
  • Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?
  • ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!
  • Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update
  • Monday Macro – a deep dive into stocks and bonds for the long run
  • Mining Monthly: February Edition
  • Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.2% y-o-y (consensus 1.1%) in Feb-24
  • Bahrain CPI Inflation 0.6% m-o-m in Jan-24

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

By Rikki Malik

  • A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
  • Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
  • Highlighting positions  added or removed  from the thematic investment portfolio

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo & Grab, BFIN’s Rising, and Astra Intl’s Oversold

By Angus Mackintosh

ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise

By Andreas Steno

  • The hopes of a March cut are long gone, but the ECB meeting will be interesting to watch nonetheless.
  • The ECB has been dovishly surprised on right about every single measurable parameter since the December meeting, which will likely make its impact at the March meeting.
  • HICP assumptions for Q1 averaged at 2.9% with the actual prints in January and February coming in at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Another green week for natural gas. Bullish demand/supply outlook for crude. Seasonality will now be working in favor of crude. Israel Hamas-Ceasefire a little less impactful for crude now.
  • Before we get to the OPEC supply cuts and crude, we would like to address our natural gas position from a couple of weeks ago.
  • Our timing has been very fortunate with the position, as the market realized that we were trading too low. As we predicted, the low prices act as a natural constraint on supply as seen most recently by EQT Corp.

ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).
  • The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!
  • In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&P 500 Index. Yikes!

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

By The Commodity Report

  • CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.
  • The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.
  • CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Monday Macro – a deep dive into stocks and bonds for the long run

By Adventurous Investor

  • This week, I’m going to try and combine my three interests: 1. working out what the heck markets might do next,
  • 2. figuring out how economic growth rates impact stock market returns (surely there must be some relationship or are they entirely unrelated), and
  • 3. digging into the economic history record books to see what’s worked in the past in investment terms.

Mining Monthly: February Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Gold held flat in February, continuing a long period of consolidation, and most other metals were down modestly.
  • The precious metal equities further sold off in February, compounding the losses in January, highlighting to the market this industry is still out of favour.
  • We had several significant updates from companies within our coverage.

Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.2% y-o-y (consensus 1.1%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Switzerland’s CPI inflation in February 2024 slowed by a tenth to 1.2% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectations of 1.1%.
  • The inflation rate continues to be below the average for most of 2023.
  • The current inflation rate is significantly below the Swiss National Bank’s target.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bahrain CPI Inflation 0.6% m-o-m in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bahrain’s CPI inflation rate saw a substantial rise of 0.6% in January 2024, representing the most significant growth since June 2023.
  • The inflation rate for January 2024 surpassed the one-year average by 0.53 percentage points.
  • This indicates a deviation from the usual inflationary behaviour.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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