Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Nws Holdings, Japan Airlines, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Seibu Giken , Novafives SAS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem
  • APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction
  • Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing
  • Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

By Arun George

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.
  • We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.
  • We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.

Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

By Ming Lu

  • We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.
  • We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.
  • We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.

Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.
  • SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Novafives’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial”, but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Novafives is an industrial engineering group that designs and supplies plant equipment. It also provides services spanning a wide variety of industrial sectors, including automotive, logistics, steel, aluminium, energy, cement and aerospace.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.2% (vs. 46.6%); GBL, 35.3% (vs. 36.2%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 17.9%); 
  • Industrivärden C, 7.4% (vs. 7.8%); Investor B, 15.4% (vs.  16.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 41.5%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 15.8% (vs. 17.8%).
  • What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Delta Electronics Thai, Alibaba (ADR), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?
  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Oct) – Cainiao, Kokusai, Doosan, IMAX China, Keiyo, Toyo, Liontown
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges
  • Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR & (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.
  • In Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend, increasing inventory days and deteriorating FCF.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?

By Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Oct) – Cainiao, Kokusai, Doosan, IMAX China, Keiyo, Toyo, Liontown

By Arun George

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Names Rebound; Memory Crashes; Look for Nvidia Hedges

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan AI names rebounded strongly after having previously suffered declines. Nevertheless, many names have outperformed Nvidia and could be good hedges vs. a Long Nvidia position.
  • Nanya Tech crashed after the market reacted to Micron’s weaker than expected near-term guidance. We believe the negative reaction to Micron is short-sighted. Please see our piece.
  • Delta Thailand crashed vs. Delta Taiwan after the parent sold a stake in the Thai subsidiary. We continue to believe Delta Taiwan offers substantially better value.

Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
  • Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
  • Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Daiichi Sankyo, Sonoscape Medical Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Too Many Portfolio Companies Is One of the Reasons for Not Enough Engagement
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Start of FY24; Partnered Oncology Drug Candidate Hits First Goal
  • High Conviction Update: Sonoscape (300633.CH) – Stock Price to Rebound After Temporary Headwinds

Too Many Portfolio Companies Is One of the Reasons for Not Enough Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem of agenda setting in engagement with investment firms is due to the mismatch that is occurring in each of the listed companies and investors.
  • Meetings without top management present disappoint investors who have prepared thorough analyses of the issues facing the portfolio company. Top management should also avoid listening to template questions at meetings.
  • It’s unrealistic to ask passive funds that cannot devote resources not to ask template questions. Active funds of Japanese investment managers may have too many portfolio companies to engage adequately.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Strong Start of FY24; Partnered Oncology Drug Candidate Hits First Goal

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) reported a 25% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY24, mainly driven by oncology drug Enhertu. The company reiterated FY24 guidance, with revenue and operating profit growing double-digit.
  • Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidate datopotamab deruxtecan demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful progression-free survival benefit in certain types of breast cancer patients in pivotal phase 3 trial.
  • Enhertu is well-positioned for geography and indication expansion as well as market share gain. Strengthening oncology portfolio and rich late-stage pipeline entail significant growth opportunity for the company.

High Conviction Update: Sonoscape (300633.CH) – Stock Price to Rebound After Temporary Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sonoscape maintained strong growth momentum in 23H1. Profit margin further improved. The Company has entered a stage where scale effect has emerged. However, declining contract liability balance raised our concern.
  • Japanese companies setting up factories in China would shake competitive landscape of the domestic market. The anti-corruption campaign could lead to “unexpected impact” on performance in 23H2. 
  • We lowered 2023 revenue forecast to RMB2 billion. After negative factors are fully priced in, share price would rebound. 

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Nws Holdings, Japan Airlines, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Seibu Giken , Novafives SAS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem
  • APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction
  • Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing
  • Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) – NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

By Arun George

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a detailed update on the APAC airline sector, featuring ANA, Cathay Pacific, JAL, Korean Air, Qantas and Singapore Airlines, addressing cargo yield normalisation, and unit cost inflation.
  • We see 24% upside to consensus EBITDAR for JAL in FY24 to March 2024, and 24% downside risk at Singapore Airlines based on our detailed analysis and quarterly earnings bridges.
  • We expect earnings at most carriers to decline in calendar 2024 versus 2023 as the combination of cargo yield normalisation, fuel price pressure, and further capacity restoration prompt margin declines.

Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

By Ming Lu

  • We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.
  • We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.
  • We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.

Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.
  • SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Novafives’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial”, but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Novafives is an industrial engineering group that designs and supplies plant equipment. It also provides services spanning a wide variety of industrial sectors, including automotive, logistics, steel, aluminium, energy, cement and aerospace.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD , Tesla Motors, PAL GROUP Holdings Co., Ltd., PDD Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL
  • Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly
  • Pal Group’s 3Coins: Coining It
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28Sep23) : Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green BUYS, BYD a SELL

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw RMB 17.5bn+ of net selling. Back to the trenches!

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly

By Vicki Bryan

  • Market consensus estimates for Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate. 
  • Sentiment, however, remains largely optimistic as analysts attribute the weakness to factory shutdowns for “updates”. We’ll see.
  • Tesla is expected to report results before the market opens on Monday.

Pal Group’s 3Coins: Coining It

By Michael Causton

  • Pal Group posted record sales in FY2022 partly because fashion retail recovered but mostly because of it has a huge hit on its hands: variety store 3Coins.
  • Cheap variety stores have always been popular and are becoming even more so as prices rise and people spend more on the home.
  • 3Coins has doubled sales in 2 years but expects continued strong growth going forward. With fashion sales also improving, Pal Group is one of few solid bets in lifestyle retailing.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Cadence Matters

By Eric Chen

  • We reviewed our PDD investment thesis trying to incorporate and make sense of various channel checks and sell-side’s research which are often inconsistent and even conflicting.
  • While there are many unknowns and ambiguities, we are convinced the street still significantly underestimates PDD’s growth outlook for 2H23, and fails to see a slowdown in FY24.
  • Our price target remain unchanged as lower target P/E multiple (to reflect slowdown prospect) is offset by higher FY23 earnings which flow to outer years.  

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Financials: Haitong International Securities Group, China Vanke (H), S&P 500 INDEX, Seoul Guarantee Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Haitong International (665 HK): Haitong Securities Ponders an Offer
  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 28Sep23) : Meituan, Tencent, Kuaishou and Banks
  • EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

Haitong International (665 HK): Haitong Securities Ponders an Offer

By Arun George

  • Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 27 September. 
  • Bloomberg reported that Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), the controlling shareholder, plans to buy the remainder of Haitong International to stem its losses.
  • Privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, so a decent premium is required – privatisation precedents suggest HK$1.08-1.13 per share offer (52%-59% premium to last close). 

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 28Sep23) : Meituan, Tencent, Kuaishou and Banks

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw HKD 14.0bn+ of net buying. That makes 11 weeks of net inflows.

EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).
  • The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.
  • Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be very oversold.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

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Oct 02
0

Most Read: SBI Shinsei Bank, Keiyo Co Ltd, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Kokusai Electric , Kasumigaseki Capital, Delta Electronics Thai, EcoPro Materials, Cosmo AM&T, Thai Beverage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout
  • DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal
  • SMIC’s Semi Shocker
  • Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case
  • Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Target Cosmo AM&T as a Prime Candidate for KOSPI 200 Special Entry in December
  • Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Thai Bev, Golden Agri, EcoPro Materials, Doosan Robotics, PCOMP

Murakami-San’s Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI’s Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

By Travis Lundy

  • The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic – done at a price SBI Shinsei’s Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
  • I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
  • Activist Murakami-san’s S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.

DCM Takeover for Keiyo (8168) – Pretty Easy Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, DCM Holdings (3050 JP) announced it would launch a friendly takeover by Tender Offer for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP) 
  • This is totally not a surprise. They signed a Business and Capital Alliance in 2017. DCM bought more at a premium last autumn. This takeover was obvious in the long-term.
  • There are enough friendly holders to get this done. Activism would be hard unless it was really cheap, which it does not seem to be, but process wasn’t great. 

SMIC’s Semi Shocker

By William Keating

  • The latest Mate 60 Kirin SOC is a major accomplishment for the Huawei, SMIC combo
  • SMIC will likely continue to refine their N+2 node and develop a 5nm-like process within 2-3 years, even without the use of EUV
  • SMIC’s accomplishment is not reflected in its share price which lies midways between 52 week highs & lows

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR & (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.
  • In Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend, increasing inventory days and deteriorating FCF.

Kasumigaseki Capital (3498) Moving To TOPIX End-November

By Travis Lundy

  • Real estate consultant/developer/speculator Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) announced Friday that it would move from TSE Growth to TSE Prime on 6 October. 
  • The stock was on the list of top potential candidates in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023) (and has been for nearly a year). It’s a good list.
  • This event leads to a TOPIX inclusion on 29 November. Analysis below.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?

By Brian Freitas

Ecopro Materials IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation for Ecopro Materials is implied price per share of 40,325 won per share, which is within the IPO price range of 36,200 won to 46,000 won.
  • Given the lack of upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a negative view of this IPO. 
  • Ecopro Materials is engaged in the business of manufacturing and selling high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel anode materials for secondary batteries.

Target Cosmo AM&T as a Prime Candidate for KOSPI 200 Special Entry in December

By Sanghyun Park

  • The introduction of float market cap is anticipated to apply not only to sector-based screening for the KOSPI 200 but also to special entry considerations.
  • Cosmo AM&T emerges as a direct beneficiary of this change. It currently ranks 52nd within the KOSPI, maintaining a tight gap with the borderline (50th).
  • Once it enters the KOSPI 200, it will also become a part of KOSPI 200 IT. As a result, the estimated flow size is approximately ₩230B, about 6x ADTV.

Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: The S&P 500 had a challenging September, closing down 5% for the month, marking its worst monthly performance since December 2022
  • JAPAN: Euglena shifts focus to commercial biofuels, Welcia partners with AEON for increased food sales, and Hitachi Zosen revolutionizes artificial meat with a 90% cost reduction in synthetic protein
  • JAPAN X: Growth in EV sales can only be sustained if charging demand is met by accessible and affordable infrastructure

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Thai Bev, Golden Agri, EcoPro Materials, Doosan Robotics, PCOMP

By Brian Freitas

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Placement Increases Float; Ends Tender Offer Hope?

By Brian Freitas

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Australia: Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September’23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 49.2% (vs. 46.6%); GBL, 35.3% (vs. 36.2%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 17.9%); 
  • Industrivärden C, 7.4% (vs. 7.8%); Investor B, 15.4% (vs.  16.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 41.1% (vs. 41.5%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 15.8% (vs. 17.8%).
  • What seems interesting: holding trades, Investor B vs. listed assets, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.

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