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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish
  • Macro Nugget: Why the price at the pump matters for inflation expectations
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Mandiri’s Livin’, BliBli’s Different, and AoT’s Rebound


Global Equity Managers Trim EM Underweight, but Remain Bearish

By Steven Holden

  • The heavy decline in EM allocations that started in early 2021 came to an end last October. Since then, a growing number of Global Equity funds are raising allocations.
  • Taiwan, China & HK, Mexico and Indonesia are at the heart of these moves, but all major countries are still held underweight, on average.
  • Stock exposures remain heavily skewed to the large caps, with 38% of the EM allocation in 6 key companies.

Macro Nugget: Why the price at the pump matters for inflation expectations

By Emil Moller

  • When oil prices increase, so does CPI by nothing else than through its direct influence on retail energy prices.
  • This effect holds true when assuming all other prices remain constant.
  • Naturally, we tend to anticipate that a surge in oil prices would ripple through to affect other prices by hiking up respective costs basis

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Mandiri’s Livin’, BliBli’s Different, and AoT’s Rebound

By Angus Mackintosh


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Daily Brief Industrials: Taiwan Secom, JSW Infrastructure, Toyo Construction, Kosaido, Lyft , MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!
  • JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage
  • Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) will open up for its IPO subscription this week.
  • The company is into ports and maritime infrastructure and is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity.
  • While the company has grown rapidly, the financials do indicate few concerns such as critical dependence/high RPT with JSW group, high debt-high cash balance sheet, forex risk, etc.

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
  • Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
  • This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Robust barriers to entry and generating attractive returns – KOSAIDO Holdings is the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a 70% market share in cremations.
  • The company’s robust economic moat is derived from its dominant market position as the primary operator of crematorium services in central Tokyo.
  • The low likelihood of new entrants due to stringent legal and political barriers further solidifies its competitive advantage. 

Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft, Inc. delivered significant results in the quarter.
  • Revenue increased by 3% year over year to $1.021 billion.
  • In July, Lyft saw sustained robust supply trends, with 25% more drivers using Lyft than the previous year and driver hours increasing by nearly 45% year over year.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report

By Water Tower Research

  • MillerKnoll reports 1QFY24 after market close on Tuesday, September 26. It will host its earnings conference call that afternoon, starting at 5:00 pm ET.

  • Our estimates are non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $889 million. Consensus is EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $896 million.

  • Management guidance is for revenue of $880-920 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18- 0.24.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Alchip Technologies, Fadu , Palantir Technologies , Carly Holdings, Akamai Technologies, Blackline Inc, Sabre Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away
  • KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers
  • Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers
  • BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers
  • Sabre Corporation: Can The Acquisition Of Techsembly Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow

By Travis Lundy

  • Niche Japanese Semiconductor Production Equipment specialist Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) last Thursday announced the TSE approved its late October IPO (with indicative pricing, shares to be sold, and initial prospectus).
  • This insight looks at initial shareholder structure, selling group, post-IPO shareholder structure with index inclusion timing, and follow-on flow possibilities. 
  • At ¥435bn indicative market cap, it will be the largest IPO in Japan since pre-covid, despite coming in a cycle trough. I expect it will be hot. 

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 23: U-Ming Marine TDIV Deletion Not Far Away

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • At present, I do not expect any index changes for the T50 index but there could be one change for the T100 index.
  • More interestingly, out of the top 10 T100 Potential DELETEs, there are five TDIV members and it will be worth tracking their rankings over the next 2 months.

KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential inclusion and exclusion candidates for the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023. 
  • The 8 lowest market cap stocks in KOSDAQ 150 are among the main candidates to be excluded from the KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023.
  • Potential inclusions for KOSDAQ 150 rebalance in December 2023 include Fadu, GigaVis, Jeio, PhilEnergy, and Manyo Factory.

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Can’t Avoid the Cycles

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Palantir Technologies Inc.: Why Their Commercial Business in the US is Soaring! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies maintained a GAAP operating income in Q2 and achieved GAAP profitability for the quarter.
  • In Q2, Palantir closed deals in the US commercial market in about 30 sectors, including pharmaceuticals, energy, consumer goods, utilities, health care, construction, automotive, transportation infrastructure, etc.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings has announced 100% growth in subscription revenue in July/August against the September 2022 quarter.
  • The annualised revenue run rate is now $3.0m vs $2.5m in the June 2023 quarter and Carly has maintained a strong ratio of subscription revenue to transaction value at 66%.
  • These outcomes are in line with our base-case expectations for H1 FY24.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: The True Reasons Behind the Acquisition from StackPath! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Akamai Technologies, Inc. delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • Akamai is pursuing a completely different approach to cloud computing, making it fully distributed with many more points of presence than typical systems provide.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

BlackLine Inc.: Launch of AI-Enabled Intercompany Accounting Tool & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine, Inc. surpassed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • BlackLine generated $145 million in total revenue in the quarter and $31 million in non-GAAP net profitability.
  • BlackLine also completed its largest middle market transaction ever, driven by the demand for cutting-edge solutions to challenging intracompany workflows.

Sabre Corporation: Can The Acquisition Of Techsembly Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sabre Corporation managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • During the second quarter, the company reached its technology migration milestones, and it is still on schedule to meet its longer-term financial and operational objectives.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: EcoPro Materials, Eog Resources, Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Preview
  • EOG Resources Inc.: Why They’re Bullish on Natural Gas’s Long-Term Prospects! – Major Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand


Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy

By Sanghyun Park

  • The indicative price band is ₩36,200 to ₩46,000. Accordingly, the market capitalization implied by the price band is ₩2.68T to ₩3.40T.
  • The concern arises as to whether Ecopro Materials can consistently deliver a level of profitability that justifies receiving an equivalent valuation multiple to that of Ecopro BM.
  • The timing of this IPO coincides with the ongoing valuation correction in the local battery sector, making the valuation issue the most critical point to watch in this IPO.

Ecopro Materials IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Ecopro Materials is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in November 2023. The IPO price range is from 36,200 won to 46,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 524 billion won to 666 billion won. The expected IPO market cap is from 2.7 trillion won to 3.4 trillion won.
  • The bankers used four companies including CNGR, Posco Future M (003670 KS), L&F, and Cosmo AM&T (005070 KS) as comps for Ecopro Materials.

EOG Resources Inc.: Why They’re Bullish on Natural Gas’s Long-Term Prospects! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • EOG Resources, Inc. managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • This quarter, they emphasized improved drilling performance in the South Powder River Basin, Mowry, and Ohio Utica Combo plays.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Tata Steel Thailand

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Star Entertainment Group, Invocare Ltd, Tuhu Car, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Trip.com, Tsuruha Holdings, Games Workshop Group PLC, Airbnb , Monster Beverage, Kroger Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?
  • InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair
  • Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading
  • Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)
  • Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia
  • Games Workshop Group – Leviathan
  • Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers
  • Monster Beverage Corporation: Can The Bang Energy Acquisition Become A Growth Driver? – Major Drivers
  • The Kroger Co.: Will The Partnership With Performance Kitchen Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers


Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?

By Sumeet Singh

  • Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement.
  • SGR undertook a similar sized raising earlier this year in Feb 2023, at a price which was double the current deal price.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 August, PE outfit TPG and InvoCare (IVC AU), Australia’s leading funeral services provider, entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$12.70/share, inclusive of a A$0.60/share fully franked dividend.
  • TPG’s had previously tabled A$12.65/share on the 7 March, which  InvoCare summarily rejected.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. InvoCare shareholders vote on the transaction on the 31 October, with implementation on the 24 November. The IE says terms are “fair and reasonable“.

Tuhu Car IPO Trading – Lukewarm Subscription, Small Float Could Impact Trading

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) raised around US$151m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – US$3.3bn Lockup Expiry, Everyone in the Money, CCASS Movement to Boot

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) (LM) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. The stock was listed in Sep 2022, its lockup on pre-IPO investors will expire on 29th Sep 2023.
  • LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | ‘Pent-Up’ Travel Demand — Does China Have Any? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • August outbound travel activity surged against easy 2022 comps, but offered no surprises
  • The pace of outbound capacity rebuild slowed in August — what do airlines see ahead?
  • Is there really “pent-up” tourism demand among Chinese consumers? We don’t think so

Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia

By Michael Causton

  • Tsuruha is the latest retailer to come under attack from an activist investment fund. 
  • As with Seven & I, the company fended off demands to shake up its board, crucially with the support of Aeon, its largest stakeholder.
  • The move will likely lead to some careful reconsideration of how Tsuruha and Aeon could work together and may even lead to a Welcia/Tsuruha merger.

Games Workshop Group – Leviathan

By Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group (GAW) enjoyed another record year of revenue and profit growth in FY23 despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop and economy-wide cost pressures. Underlying volume growth is testimony to the appeal of the IP to its hobbyists. GAW entered FY24 with strong revenue momentum, implying that the June 2023 release of Leviathan, the 10th edition of its most significant property, Warhammer 40K, has boosted growth in Q124. Easing cost pressures should be supportive of underlying margin progress, albeit the recent strength of sterling provides a headwind to growth if it persists through the year.


Airbnb Inc.: New Strategies Tapping into Price-Sensitive Travelers! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Airbnb delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the recent quarterwith over 115 million Nights and Experiences Booked, resulting in revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 18% year-over-year growth.
  • Net income for the quarter stood at $650 million, reflecting a net income margin of 26%, the highest second-quarter margin ever achieved.
  • Additionally, free cash flow reached $900 million, a 13% increase from the previous year, with a trailing 12-month free cash flow of $3.9 billion and a margin of 43%.

Monster Beverage Corporation: Can The Bang Energy Acquisition Become A Growth Driver? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monster Beverage Corporation generated below par revenues in the last quarter and its earnings were on par with market expectations.
  • The rise in gross profit as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to price actions, lower freighting expenses, and higher aluminum can costs.
  • Besides that, the company introduced The Beast Unleashed in the quarter.

The Kroger Co.: Will The Partnership With Performance Kitchen Catalyze Revenues? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Kroger Co. delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but surpassing the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • The total effect on operating profit during the second quarter was somewhat positive, and they expect this to continue for the remainder of the year.
  • Besides these results, their healthcare subsidiary, Kroger Health, entered into a collaborative partnership with Performance Kitchen to provide medically customized meals (MTMs).

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Daily Brief Health Care: Ajanta Pharma, Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group Co Ltd, Viatris and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Viatris Inc.: Unveiling the Power of Popular Brands like Lipitor and Lyrica! – Major Drivers


Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN): Starts FY24 With Healthy Branded Generics Growth and Improving Margins

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN) reported better-than-expected profitability in Q1FY24, due to softening of raw material prices and normalization of freight rates. EBITDA margin expanded 300bps YoY to 26%.
  • Revenue increased 7% YoY to INR10B, driven by superior execution in branded generics business and lesser price erosion in the U.S. 73% of the total sales came from branded generic.
  • Management maintained mid-teen revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance of ~25% for FY24. Ajanta Pharma has a positive business outlook due to growing branded generic business and niche U.S. launches.

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Yuanxin’s financial performance has not improved and it is still in a state of continuous loss. At such low gross margin level, Yuanxin will find it difficult to make money.
  • As China’s retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down, the challenges Yuanxin has to face would be different from before.
  • When the market pattern has been basically determined, Yuanxin has little chance to break through. Being acquired may be a better outcome. If IPO, valuation would be lower than peers.

Viatris Inc.: Unveiling the Power of Popular Brands like Lipitor and Lyrica! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viatris Inc. delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.
  • The company exceeded its expectations in the quarter, delivering total revenues of $3.9 billion, or about 2% year-over-year growth on an operational adjusted basis, as well as adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion and free cash flow of $447 million.
  • Tyrvaya’s bridge program was improved during the quarter to boost value per script and produce the greatest quarterly TRx launch.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Taiwan Secom, JSW Infrastructure, Toyo Construction, Kosaido, Lyft , MillerKnoll and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!
  • JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share
  • KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage
  • Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers
  • MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

JSW Infrastructure Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) will open up for its IPO subscription this week.
  • The company is into ports and maritime infrastructure and is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity.
  • While the company has grown rapidly, the financials do indicate few concerns such as critical dependence/high RPT with JSW group, high debt-high cash balance sheet, forex risk, etc.

YFO Reloads Toyo Construction Takeover Proposal at ¥1255/Share

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night Reuters teased a headline saying the Nintendo Family Office called YFO (and related entities) would raise its proposed takeover price for Toyo Construction to ¥1255/share.
  • Recently, the company had agreed to start an investigation and YFO had dropped its demands for an EGM. In Q1, the company reporetd Revenues +18.6%yoy, reasonably in-line with original guidance.
  • This new price comes at a 1% premium to previous close, and is meant to start discussions. The Board has indicated it will start deliberations tomorrow.

KOSAIDO Holdings (7868) – Wide Economic Moat Providing a Major Competitive Advantage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Robust barriers to entry and generating attractive returns – KOSAIDO Holdings is the market-leading funeral services operator in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a 70% market share in cremations.
  • The company’s robust economic moat is derived from its dominant market position as the primary operator of crematorium services in central Tokyo.
  • The low likelihood of new entrants due to stringent legal and political barriers further solidifies its competitive advantage. 

Lyft Inc.: How Women+ Connect is Changing the Game in Passenger Safety! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lyft, Inc. delivered significant results in the quarter.
  • Revenue increased by 3% year over year to $1.021 billion.
  • In July, Lyft saw sustained robust supply trends, with 25% more drivers using Lyft than the previous year and driver hours increasing by nearly 45% year over year.

MillerKnoll, Inc. – Preview: Watching Order Trends, Margins in 1QFY24 Report

By Water Tower Research

  • MillerKnoll reports 1QFY24 after market close on Tuesday, September 26. It will host its earnings conference call that afternoon, starting at 5:00 pm ET.

  • Our estimates are non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.20 on revenue of $889 million. Consensus is EPS of $0.21 on revenue of $896 million.

  • Management guidance is for revenue of $880-920 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18- 0.24.


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Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Triple Point Social Housing REIT, Bank of Jiangsu , IREDA, HDFC Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised
  • Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Robust base and capital deployment options
  • Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • [Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

By Clarence Chu

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Triple Point Social Housing REIT – Robust base and capital deployment options

By Edison Investment Research

Triple Point Social Housing (SOHO) reported solid H123 results. With borrowing costs fixed, growth in indexed rental income partly offset the impact of credit loss provisions against its two unperforming tenants. Progress is being made in resolving these issues, and as there is no read-across to the wider portfolio, we forecast full dividend cover through FY24. Meanwhile, with the demand for specialised supported housing remaining strong, SOHO has entered a partnership with one of the leading providers in the sector.


Bank of Jiangsu – Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
  • Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank’s pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
  • Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.

Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • IREDA (1845911D IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IDBI Capital, SBI Capital and Bob Capital.
  • Indian Renewable Energy Development Authority (IREDA) is a wholly owned Government of India (GoI) enterprise under the administrative control of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). 
  • It is registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit-taking Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFCND-SI), with Infrastructure Finance Company (IFC) status.

[Week 4] Namaste India 🙏 | HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) | Asset Quality Concerns, but Why Now?

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • The markets closed below our stop of 19,900, primarily driven by weakness in global market sentiments. 
  • For HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) while the street seems to be worried about asset quality, trends in whistle-blower complaints and the timing of the merger also raise alarms.  
  • Other names discussed this week include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) and Godrej Properties (GPL IN).  

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Most Read: Mercari , Lasertec Corp, Thai Beverage, Golden Agri Resources, Water Oasis, Doosan Robotics, Kokusai Electric , EcoPro Materials, Taiwan Secom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT
  • The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
  • Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023
  • Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule
  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow
  • Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori IN; Nippon Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec OUT

By Brian Freitas


The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

By Brian Freitas

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
  • There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
  • A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

By Brian Freitas

  • Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
  • Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
  • Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023

By Sameer Taneja


Doosan Robotics Institutional Lockups Breakdown Leaked Pre-Disclosure: Analyzing Flow Schedule

By Sanghyun Park

  • The immediate float rate on the listing date (October 5) has reached 19.25% as the institutional lockup volume is not as high as initially expected.
  • Even with a low institutional lockup level, there seems to be a possibility of a certain IPO day pop.
  • The first exit point we can look for in the short term would be the 1-month lockup release (1.44% of SO) one month after listing.

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Established with High Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO – Index Demand On The Follow

By Travis Lundy

  • Niche Japanese Semiconductor Production Equipment specialist Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) last Thursday announced the TSE approved its late October IPO (with indicative pricing, shares to be sold, and initial prospectus).
  • This insight looks at initial shareholder structure, selling group, post-IPO shareholder structure with index inclusion timing, and follow-on flow possibilities. 
  • At ¥435bn indicative market cap, it will be the largest IPO in Japan since pre-covid, despite coming in a cycle trough. I expect it will be hot. 

Ecopro Materials IPO Prospectus Filed Today: Anticipating Inevitable Valuation Controversy

By Sanghyun Park

  • The indicative price band is ₩36,200 to ₩46,000. Accordingly, the market capitalization implied by the price band is ₩2.68T to ₩3.40T.
  • The concern arises as to whether Ecopro Materials can consistently deliver a level of profitability that justifies receiving an equivalent valuation multiple to that of Ecopro BM.
  • The timing of this IPO coincides with the ongoing valuation correction in the local battery sector, making the valuation issue the most critical point to watch in this IPO.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 23: Many Changes and One-Way Flows of US$1.2bn+!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2023 review.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but there are several names close to the border and expectations could change before the base date as prices move around.
  • The estimate for one-way capping flow in December 2023 is US$1.2bn.

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Daily Brief Australia: Star Entertainment Group, Invocare Ltd, Carly Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?
  • InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair
  • Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion


Star Entertainment Entitlement+Placement – Would You Rescue Me? Again?

By Sumeet Singh

  • Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) (SGR) plans to raise around US$480m (A$750m) via an entitlement offer cum institutional placement.
  • SGR undertook a similar sized raising earlier this year in Feb 2023, at a price which was double the current deal price.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

InvoCare: Shareholder Vote On 31st Oct. IE Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • On 9 August, PE outfit TPG and InvoCare (IVC AU), Australia’s leading funeral services provider, entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement at A$12.70/share, inclusive of a A$0.60/share fully franked dividend.
  • TPG’s had previously tabled A$12.65/share on the 7 March, which  InvoCare summarily rejected.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out. InvoCare shareholders vote on the transaction on the 31 October, with implementation on the 24 November. The IE says terms are “fair and reasonable“.

Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) – 100% Revenue Growth Follows from Fleet Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings has announced 100% growth in subscription revenue in July/August against the September 2022 quarter.
  • The annualised revenue run rate is now $3.0m vs $2.5m in the June 2023 quarter and Carly has maintained a strong ratio of subscription revenue to transaction value at 66%.
  • These outcomes are in line with our base-case expectations for H1 FY24.

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