Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Jeil Machine & Solution, Old Dominion Freight Line, Severfield PLC, Singapore Post, Sunrun Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Jeil M&S IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: Investing In Technology & Capacity For Expansion In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Severfield – Multiple positives should excite investors
  • kopi-C with SingPost’s Group CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”
  • Sunrun Inc: Improved Demand & Storage Adoption Changing The Game! – Major Drivers


Jeil M&S IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Jeil M&S reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Jeil M&S’s IPO price has been determined at 22,000 won per share (22% higher than the high end of the IPO price range).
  • A total of 2,164 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 646 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 30 April 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Jeil M&S is target price of 24,354 won per share, which is 11% higher than the IPO price.

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: Investing In Technology & Capacity For Expansion In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Old Dominion Freight Line released its fourth-quarter earnings.
  • In the quarter, the company saw a slowdown in the domestic economy which affected volume levels.
  • Despite this, the company saw a quarterly revenue and earnings per share increase for the first time in 2023, owing to an increase in the quality of its revenue.

Severfield – Multiple positives should excite investors

By Edison Investment Research

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appears compelling.


kopi-C with SingPost’s Group CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with SingPost’s CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company” Its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik explains its strategy.
  • With the decline in demand for postal services over the years, Singapore Post (SingPost), the country’s postal service provider, is pivoting to the logistics sector to survive and thrive, shares its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik.

Sunrun Inc: Improved Demand & Storage Adoption Changing The Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sunrun is a renewable energy company that had a strong fourth quarter and a full-year result in 2023.
  • The company exceeded its guidance on storage capacity installation and landed in its guidance range on installed solar capacity.
  • As a result, there were significant increases in its subscriber values, up 7% from Q3 and 18% year-over-year.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Grifols SA, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings, Teladoc Health, Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April‘24 Report
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Bolstering Cell Therapy Research with 2seventy Bio Acquisition! – Major Drivers
  • Laboratory Corporation of America (LabCorp): Significant Growth Momentum In The Diagnostics & Women’s Health Can Revolutionize Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Teladoc Health: Performance of Integrated Care and BetterHelp Are Encouraging Factors In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers


ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-March, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (5 have tightened, 12 widened, 2 remained at same level).
  • Views are unchanged. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: Bolstering Cell Therapy Research with 2seventy Bio Acquisition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s latest earnings highlighted several critical developments and financial performance data that shape its investment appeal.
  • Among the company’s accomplishments in 2023 were the FDA approval and successful launch of its EYLEA HD, a promising treatment for patients with wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic eye diseases, which had strong start despite initial delays.
  • Additionally, the company won a notable legal battle to preserve its intellectual property related to EYLEA, which deterred infringements from a biosimilar manufacturer, potentially deterring future biosimilar launches.

Laboratory Corporation of America (LabCorp): Significant Growth Momentum In The Diagnostics & Women’s Health Can Revolutionize Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings’ Q4 2023 highlighted a robust performance, driven by strong base business revenue growth.
  • Discussing Q4 results, revenues reached $3 billion, adjusted earnings per share was $3.30, and free cash flow from operations, excluding spin-related items, was $422 million.
  • Enterprise revenue grew by 4% compared to Q4 2022, led by an 8% growth in the Diagnostics business and 7% growth in the Biopharma business.

Teladoc Health: Performance of Integrated Care and BetterHelp Are Encouraging Factors In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Teladoc health has shown growth in the previous year’s earnings with an increased focus on operating efficiencies and bottom line performance.
  • The company delivered 33% growth in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow of $194 million in 2023.
  • Their selling season yielded double-digit bookings growth over the prior year, with around 75% being upsells or expansions with existing clients.

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Daily Brief Financials: Hang Lung Properties, Ngern Tid Lor , Mitsubishi Estate, Canara Bank, Longfor Properties, NB Bancorp , Homestreet Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend
  • Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion
  • 8802 Mitsubishi Estate – Another Play on Japan RE and Office – Chase the Rally
  • Canara Bank – Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan
  • Nb Bancorp Inc (NBBK) – Sunday, Jan 14, 2024
  • Homestreet Inc (HMST) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024


Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

  • And eagle-eyed reader spotted Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)‘s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That’s the first time I’ve seen HLP provide this alternative. 
  • Over the years, the Chan family and Hang Lung (10 HK) have chipped away at HLG’s and HLP’s minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. 
  • This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s playbook, would boost HLG’s stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

By Arun George

  • In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
  • The Chan family’s share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
  • The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
  • With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.

8802 Mitsubishi Estate – Another Play on Japan RE and Office – Chase the Rally

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we explore Mitsubishi Estate, who is the second largest real estate company in terms of market cap
  • Mitsubishi Estate major business is in office (Tokyo CBD), residential/condo, as well as some retail and hotel
  • Japan stock market is upbeat and saw the largest inflow among Asia YTD.  8802 valuation is not demanding.

Canara Bank – Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years
  • Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further
  • ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years

Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Nb Bancorp Inc (NBBK) – Sunday, Jan 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • NB Bancorp has grown as a mutual bank, allowing flexibility to pursue growth opportunities without shareholder constraints
  • Strong financial performance and potential for market growth make NBBK a promising long-term investment
  • Recommended for investors seeking opportunities for growth and financial stability

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Homestreet Inc (HMST) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • HomeStreet Inc. focuses on MultiFamily lending in western states and recently surged in stock value due to a merger agreement with FirstSun Capital Bancorp
  • Shareholders of HomeStreet will receive shares of FSUN under the deal, expected to close in the middle of 2024
  • The author recommends building a position in FSUN, believing it is undervalued and has potential growth over the next 3 years

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Lock&Lock, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Miniso, Belle Fashion Group, Las Vegas Sands, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Winmark Corp, Levi Strauss & Co, Signet Jewelers, Sonos Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lock & Lock: Affinity Equity Partners Offers a Tender Offer of a 30% Stake at 8,750 Won Per Share
  • The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders
  • [Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales
  • Pre-IPO Belle Fashion Group – Performance Has Picked Up, but Not yet Reversed
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Intense Competition in the Premium Mass Segment & 3 Other Major Challenges In Its Path! – Key Drivers
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Winmark: Resale at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.159]
  • Levi Strauss & Co.: Growth In Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Propelling Its Success? – Major Drivers
  • Signet (SIG US) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024
  • Sonos Inc.: Expanding Its Portfolio & Entry into New Categories! – Major Drivers


Lock & Lock: Affinity Equity Partners Offers a Tender Offer of a 30% Stake at 8,750 Won Per Share

By Douglas Kim

  • On 17 April, Affinity Equity Partners offered a tender offer of a 30% stake in Lock & Lock at 8,750 won per share.
  • The tender offer period is from 18 April to 14 May.  The number of shares that are included in this tender offer is 13.14 million shares (30.33% of outstanding shares).  
  • Lock & Lock’s share price could trade higher close to the tender offer price of 8,750 won as the date as the end of the tender offer period approaches.

The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since “profitability of capital” like ROE or ROIC cannot create value in mid-to-long-term without improvement, the fact that ROE has stalled is a cause for concern for future stock prices.
  • The slow growth in Net Profit Margin and the sluggish improvement in Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage indicate that it is still holding too much cash, cross-held shares, etc. 
  • Nearly half of all listed companies are companies with major shareholders of 20% or more, which is an obstacle to improving corporate governance.

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$34) Target Price Change]: IP Strategy Successfully Drove China Sales

By Eric Wen

  • We expect Miniso’s revenue for C1Q/2Q24 to be 1.0%/2.7% higher than consensus due to adequate inventory and strong sales of the Chiikawa series. 
  • We believe Miniso has found a new competency in quickly turning around IP sales through economies of scale in supply chain and store network.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and raise our TP by US$3 to US$34/ADS.

Pre-IPO Belle Fashion Group – Performance Has Picked Up, but Not yet Reversed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The core of Belle’s transformation is to inject “digitalization” into existing massive store assets, with strategy of “omnichannel+multi brands”. Belle also devotes significant resources to online channels and online-to-offline integration.
  • Benefiting from the DTC retail model, Belle increases the probability of success when launching products. Licensing/acquisition are important ways to empower new brands and promote growth. Belle’s performance has rebounded.
  • However, the path of transformation hasn’t yet been completed. Belle still mainly relies on heavy asset mode and is exposed to inventory risks. There ‘s still room for further improvement.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.: Intense Competition in the Premium Mass Segment & 3 Other Major Challenges In Its Path! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Las Vegas Sands Corp.
  • reported that Macao delivered $654 million of EBITDA for the quarter, a significant enhancement since the coronavirus pandemic’s end.
  • According to them, robust growth in both gaming and non-gaming revenues is anticipated, propelled by their substantial share in non rolling table win, rolling table win, and slot ETG win.

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.
  • Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
  • As per F&S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.

Winmark: Resale at Scale – [Business Breakdowns, EP.159]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Winmark operates five resale brands through a franchising model, including Plato’s Closet and Play It Again Sports
  • The company’s focus is on providing access to quality used products at value pricing, contributing to the circular economy
  • CEO Brett Heface discusses the dynamics of managing the brands, growth strategies, and the company’s mission to provide resale for everyone

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Levi Strauss & Co.: Growth In Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Propelling Its Success? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Levi Strauss & Co reported revenues of $1.6 billion, reflecting a decline of 8% on a constant currency basis due to a $100 million shift from Q2 into Q1 related to the ERP implementation in the U.S. However, excluding this shift and the effect of exiting the Denizen business in Russia, Q1 revenues were flat.
  • The company’s adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.26, which outperformed expectations.
  • This improvement was mainly driven by a 240 basis-point increase in gross margin and prudently managing the company’s expenses.

Signet (SIG US) – Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SIG is a specialty jewelry retailer with a strong presence in the US, Canada, and the UK
  • After struggling with poor management and high mall exposure, the company has made progress under new leadership in 2018
  • SIG has focused on shutting down underperforming stores, particularly in malls, to improve productivity and aims to continue growth in the jewelry retail industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sonos Inc.: Expanding Its Portfolio & Entry into New Categories! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sonos, the leading speaker manufacturing company, recently reported its Q1 2024 results.
  • Extenuating despite various cyclical challenges, Sonos exceeded its expectations by delivering a revenue of $612.9 million, a GAAP gross margin of 46.1%, and adjusted EBITDA of $115 million.
  • Its free cash flow was also improved to $269 million.

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Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Shinko Electric Industries, JSR Corp, Hang Lung Properties, J&T Global Express , Lynas Corp Ltd, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Hollysys Automation Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry
  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update
  • JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters
  • Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend
  • J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn
  • Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities
  • Lynas (LYC AU): Gina’s Stake Revives MP Materials Merger
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy
  • Ohayo Japan | A Healthy Correction


Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

By Travis Lundy

  • Last autumn, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.
  • KKR’s own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).
  • There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details. 

Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
  • 12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco’d trimming.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR’s approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.

JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, the results of the JSR Corp (4185 JP) Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. 
  • That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. 
  • News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. 

Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP’s Scrip Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

  • And eagle-eyed reader spotted Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)‘s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That’s the first time I’ve seen HLP provide this alternative. 
  • Over the years, the Chan family and Hang Lung (10 HK) have chipped away at HLG’s and HLP’s minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. 
  • This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s playbook, would boost HLG’s stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

By Sumeet Singh

  • J&T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

By Arun George

  • In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
  • The Chan family’s share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
  • The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.

Lynas (LYC AU): Gina’s Stake Revives MP Materials Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is the proverbial Aussie battler. Post the 2018 general elections, the new Malaysian government put Lynas on notice it may halt it rare-earth operations. 
  • Since then, Lynas’ Malaysian facility, which cuts into China’s near-monopoly on processing elements for defense/aerospace/EV/electronics industries, has (mostly) operated without substantial disruptions. Profit peaked in FY22; but has since rolled-over.
  • Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock has now disclosed a 5.82% stake in Lynas; having disclosed a 5.3% stake in MP Materials (MP US) earlier this month. Lynas confirmed discussions with MPM in February.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.

Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th February 2024, 85% of Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) shareholders present and via proxy, voted for Ascendent Capital’s Offer. After three-plus years, the end was finally in sight.
  • Then crickets. The merger was to complete in the 1Q. On the 15th April, HOLI released an accountant resignation notice. No word on dissenters or regulatory approvals. Shares sold off. 
  • The accountant resignation is a nothing burger. HOLI should lift their game and provide more transparency on the outstanding merger conditions. Still, the spread is attractive. This is a buy. 

Ohayo Japan | A Healthy Correction

By Mark Chadwick

  • The market is experiencing its first bout of volatility this year, with the S&P trading below 50-day moving average
  • Toshiba is considering cutting its domestic workforce by 5,000, approximately 7% of its total in Japan, in its latest move to accelerate restructuring
  • ASML’s Q1 orders fall short, reflecting chipmakers’ cautious stance on equipment purchases.

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Daily Brief Australia: Actinogen Medical and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Actinogen Medical – First patient dosed in Phase IIb XanaMIA study


Actinogen Medical – First patient dosed in Phase IIb XanaMIA study

By Edison Investment Research

Actinogen Medical announced that the first randomised patient in its Phase IIb XanaMIA trial of lead candidate Xanamem received their first treatment on Friday 12 April. This study is designed to enrol c 220 patients with cognitive impairment (CI) associated with biomarker-positive mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD), as confirmed through an elevated level of phosphorylated Tau-181 (pTau-181) protein in their blood at baseline. The study has commenced at 13 Australian sites and will concentrate on domestic sites for the first c 100 patients, and initial efficacy and safety results will be analysed when these patients reach 24 weeks of treatment. These results are now expected in mid-CY25 (vs prior guidance of H1 CY25) and Actinogen expects to expand the trial to US study sites following this interim readout. In the near term, the next material milestone for the company will be results, now expected in early Q3 CY24 (vs Q2 CY24 previously), from its Phase IIa XanaCIDD study in patients with CI and major depressive disorder (MDD).


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Daily Brief South Korea: HPSP, Megastudyedu Co, Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Market Chats About What Really Went Down with HPSP This Morning
  • Megastudy Education: A Major Shareholder Return Policy in 2024-2026


Market Chats About What Really Went Down with HPSP This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • This morning’s HPSP (403870 KS) situation began with Maekyung’s report, indicating Crescendo PE contacted local bankers for the controlling stake sale.
  • The surge in HPSP’s stock price after Maekyung’s report suggests Crescendo PE’s tacit approval, implying their involvement in the news’s emergence.
  • Despite the likely confirmed sale of Crescendo PE’s stake, timing remains uncertain due to disclosure rules. Continued monitoring is vital, considering potential market reactions later.

Megastudy Education: A Major Shareholder Return Policy in 2024-2026

By Douglas Kim

  • On 16 April, Megastudyedu Co, Ltd. (215200 KS) announced a major shareholder return plan, driving up its share price by 14.2% to 60,400 won. 
  • Driven by this attractive shareholder return plan combined with improving fundamentals, we believe that Megastudy Education’s shares could continue to outperform the market in the next several months. 
  • The total shareholder returns including share buybacks/cancellation and dividends are 60% of the company’s non-consolidated net profit from 2024 to 2026.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Singapore Post and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • kopi-C with SingPost’s CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”


kopi-C with SingPost’s CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with SingPost’s CFO: “We’re building a Singapore-branded global logistics company” Its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik explains its strategy.
  • With the decline in demand for postal services over the years, Singapore Post (SingPost), the country’s postal service provider, is pivoting to the logistics sector to survive and thrive, shares its Group Chief Financial Officer Vincent Yik.

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Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies, S&P 500 INDEX, Encore Wire, Columbia Sportswear Co, DXC Technology Co, Illumina Inc, Fmc Corp, Conagra Foods, Carmax Inc, Constellation Brands and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Keep Calm as Closing Date Slips
  • The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting
  • Prysmian/Encore Wire: Agreed Offer
  • Columbia Sportswear Company: Enhancing DTC Experience & Strengthening Its Retail Presence Across The Globe! – Major Drivers
  • DXC Technology Company: Will Its Enhanced Go-to-Market Strategy and Business Execution Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Illumina Inc: Will Its Market Dominance In Genetic Analysis Last In The Long Term? – Major Drivers
  • FMC Corporation: Performance of Diamides Business and Other Portfolios Driving Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Conagra Brands: Investments in the Frozen Segment & 5 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • CarMax Inc: How Are They Embracing Generative AI For Improving Efficiency & Strategic Expansion? – Major Drivers
  • Constellation Brands: What Is Its Portfolio Transformation Strategy in Wine and Spirits? – Major Drivers


Hollysys (HOLI US): Keep Calm as Closing Date Slips

By Arun George

  • On 15 April, Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) issued a 6-K filing stating that Ascendent remains in the process of obtaining regulatory approvals. 
  • The gross spread has widened to 8% as the closing date has slipped from the end of March guidance, and an updated timeline is lacking. 
  • A delay in securing regulatory approvals is not uncommon. However, regulatory approvals should be forthcoming as the transaction involves Chinese entities (including a SASAC entity) acquiring a Chinese-focused company. 

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve discussed for months that we’ll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
  • Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
  • Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.

Prysmian/Encore Wire: Agreed Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Prysmian SpA (PRY IM) agreed to acquire Encore Wire (WIRE US) for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, implied EV of €4,264 million, 11x EV/NTM EBITDA and 16.9x Fwd P/E.
  • Encore wire has traded at an average 6.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.6x P/E over the last 5 years. I set my TP at $290. Synergies could be valued at $51/share.
  • The shares are trading slightly above the offer price. Gross spread is +0.2%. The volume traded since announcement has been very strong. There is room for some sweetening. Long.

Columbia Sportswear Company: Enhancing DTC Experience & Strengthening Its Retail Presence Across The Globe! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the recent fourth quarter 2023 financial results, Columbia Sportswear highlighted some key achievements and challenges they faced throughout the year.
  • This provides an informative insight into both the company’s strengths and weaknesses moving forward, forming a neutral foundation for an investment thesis and resulting summary analysis.
  • A cornerstone of Columbia Sportwear’s strategy in 2023 was their inventory reduction plan.

DXC Technology Company: Will Its Enhanced Go-to-Market Strategy and Business Execution Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During Q3, DXC Technology was observed to have solid performance with the company’s organic revenue growth falling within the guidance range.
  • The free cash flow saw an increase of 26% compared to the prior year, amounting to an impressive $585 million.
  • However, the report points to declines in various areas such as organic revenue growth, a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, mainly due to the decline in resale revenues.

Illumina Inc: Will Its Market Dominance In Genetic Analysis Last In The Long Term? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina reports a successful 2023 but is bracing for a challenging 2024 amid continued macroeconomic hurdles.
  • The company delivered a higher-than-expected consolidated revenue of approximately $1.12 billion in the fourth quarter, marking an increase of 4% year over year.
  • CEO Jacob Thaysen highlighted the latest product, NovaSeq X, as the most successful high-throughput product launch in the company’s history.

FMC Corporation: Performance of Diamides Business and Other Portfolios Driving Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the fourth-quarter 2023 earnings, FMC Corporation’s performance suggests a mixed investment climate.
  • Although the company’s plan largely revolves around elements they manage, such as NPI sales and restructuring initiatives, the transition of the crop chemicals market implies a challenging year ahead.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Conagra Brands: Investments in the Frozen Segment & 5 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Conagra Brands maintained an overall positive tone regarding its performance and future prospects in its latest earnings.
  • While there were signs of optimism and forward-looking strategies, there were also concerns about certain aspects of its operations and broader market conditions.
  • The company was seen focusing heavily on volume as being crucial for growth.

CarMax Inc: How Are They Embracing Generative AI For Improving Efficiency & Strategic Expansion? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CarMax, a leading used car retailer in the United States, reported its Q3 fiscal year 2024 results indicating a continuation of a strategic plan that has led to sequential year-over-year improvements across key business areas for four consecutive quarters.
  • Total sales for Q3 FY ’24 were $6.1 billion, down by 5% compared to the previous year due to lower retail and wholesale prices and lower retail volume, partially offset by higher wholesale volume.
  • Retail unit sales declined by 2.9% while used unit comps were down by 4.1%.

Constellation Brands: What Is Its Portfolio Transformation Strategy in Wine and Spirits? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Constellation Brands reported strong Q3 results, driven by robust performance in their beer business, achieving over 8% depletion growth for its beer portfolio.
  • This performance is a testament to continued strong consumer demand and contributed to the company’s 55th consecutive quarter of depletion growth and tenth leading share gains.
  • The company also executed $215 million of share repurchases in Q3, maintaining its net leverage ratio at 3.2x, excluding Canopy equity and earnings.

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Daily Brief China: Belle Fashion Group, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, J&T Global Express , Lonking Holdings, Akeso Biopharma Inc, Hang Seng Index, BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp., Cloudchain and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Belle Fashion IPO: The Investment Case
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected
  • Cancelling CaiNiao’s IPO: What It Means for China’s Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)
  • J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Policy Tailwind
  • [Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle
  • EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation
  • Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding – Profitability Will Be Disappointing Due To “Flaws” In Business Model
  • Cloudchain Pre-IPO – The Positives – Turned Profitable Recently


Belle Fashion IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George


Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) 1Q24 Better than Expected

By Mohshin Aziz

  • CATL announced its 1Q24 net profit of CNY9.2B (+19% YoY), which straight out blew past market expectations 
  • The fear of ever-declining battery prices is overstated, as CATL has clearly shown it can take lower margins and boost ROEs via higher inventory turnover and high utilisation rates  
  • Our fair value of CNY253 (+27% UPSIDE) is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations 

Cancelling CaiNiao’s IPO: What It Means for China’s Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao
  • The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability
  • BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation — cheap!

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry – Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

By Sumeet Singh

  • J&T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Lonking (3339 HK): Policy Tailwind

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)‘s demand should pick up in 2H24 supported by the government’s “Action plan to promote large-scale equipment renewals and consumer goods trade-ins”. 
  • Industry volume sales have already witnessed a narrower YoY decline in Mar, with solid exports of wheel loaders and domestic sales of excavators.
  • After going ex- in late-May, its PER will drop to 7.0x and yield will rise to 6.6%. Net cash of HK$1.56/share is more than fully cover its share price.

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

By Eric Wen

  • C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
  • PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
  • Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 

EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

By Nico Rosti

  • The HSI INDEX is currently down for the 2nd week in a row and it is quite oversold on a WEEKLY basis.
  • A temporary reversal could come as soon as this week or next week, but we don’t think this will mark a restart of the previous rally.
  • Look at the 16250-16050 area to go LONG, this is the area where the index most likely will print a temporary bottom.

Pre-IPO BenQ BM Holding – Profitability Will Be Disappointing Due To “Flaws” In Business Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The business model for general hospitals is not good (e.g. heavy assets, challenging operations, low profits, difficult to replicate and expand nationwide), which has never been a profitable business.
  • BenQ’s profitability is not attractive if compared with for-profit specialized hospitals. The “benefit chain” of hospitals is actually very complicated, which makes it challenging to attract/retain good medical talents.
  • BenQ’s overall revenue growth could slow down in the future. Its profit margin is also not attractive. It would be difficult for BenQ to achieve a high valuation after IPO. 

Cloudchain Pre-IPO – The Positives – Turned Profitable Recently

By Ethan Aw

  • Cloudchain (CC CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
  • Cloudchain is an independent industry digital finance platform in China, serving anchor enterprises, chain-related enterprises, and financial institutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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